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SAND2022-2193 O Skywalker is a software library that facilitates the creation of test drivers for atmospheric parameterizations used in climate models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
Abstract. Realistic simulation of the Earth's mean-state climate remains a major challenge, and yet it is crucial for predicting the climate system in transition. Deficiencies in models' process representations, propagation of errors from one process to another, and associated compensating errors can often confound the interpretation and improvement of model simulations. These errors and biases can also lead to unrealistic climate projections and incorrect attribution of the physical mechanisms governing past and future climate change. Here we show that a significantly improved global atmospheric simulation can be achieved by focusing on the realism of process assumptions in cloud calibration and subgrid effects using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1). The calibration of clouds and subgrid effects informed by our understanding of physical mechanisms leads to significant improvements in clouds and precipitation climatology, reducing common and long-standing biases across cloud regimes in the model. The improved cloud fidelity in turn reduces biases in other aspects of the system. Furthermore, even though the recalibration does not change the global mean aerosol and total anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs), the sensitivity of clouds, precipitation, and surface temperature to aerosol perturbations is significantly reduced. This suggests that it is possible to achieve improvements to the historical evolution of surface temperature over EAMv1 and that precise knowledge of global mean ERFs is not enough to constrain historical or future climate change. Cloud feedbacks are also significantly reduced in the recalibrated model, suggesting that there would be a lower climate sensitivity when it is run as part of the fully coupled E3SM. This study also compares results from incremental changes to cloud microphysics, turbulent mixing, deep convection, and subgrid effects to understand how assumptions in the representation of these processes affect different aspects of the simulated atmosphere as well as its response to forcings. We conclude that the spectral composition and geographical distribution of the ERFs and cloud feedback, as well as the fidelity of the simulated base climate state, are important for constraining the climate in the past and future.
Land surface processes are known to have a profound impact on the overlying atmosphere over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Many atmospheric numerical models include special parameterizations to improve the specification and partitioning of surface fluxes which are critical to the accurate prediction of warm season boundary layer behavior, organized mesoscale circulations, and convective precipitation. However, the added degrees of freedom resulting from the inclusion of vegetation and soil schemes require the specification of additional surface parameters such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. As satellite data have become more readily available in recent years, many investigations have attempted to use these new measurements to infer missing components of the surface energy budget. Sensitivity studies have shown land-skin temperature (LST) tendencies during the mid-morning hours are strongly sensitive to the surface moisture availability (a function of soil wetness and vegetation) and less sensitive to other parameters such as surface roughness. Based upon results from these and other studies, developed a simple technique that dynamically assimilates Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) derived land-surface products into the surface energy budget of a mesoscale model. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that assimilating the GOES satellite data has the potential to improve the representation of land surface characteristics within the model without prior knowledge of the land surface characteristics. The assimilation technique is presented in Section 2 and the numerical experiments are detailed in Section 3. Preliminary results and conclusions are presented in Sections 4 and 5, respectively.
The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Airborne Fluxes and Meteorology (AFM)-12 team's efforts focused on regional scale Surface Vegetation and Atmosphere (SVAT) modeling to improve parameterization of the heterogeneous BOREAS landscape for use in larger scale Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This regional land cover data set was developed as part of a multitemporal one-kilometer Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) land cover analysis approach that was used as the basis for regional land cover mapping, fire disturbance-regeneration, and multiresolution land cover scaling studies in the boreal forest ecosystem of central Canada. This land cover classification was derived by using regional field observations from ground and low-level aircraft transits to analyze spectral-temporal clusters that were derived from an unsupervised cluster analysis of monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image composites (April-September 1992). This regional data set was developed for use by BOREAS investigators, especially those involved in simulation modeling, remote sensing algorithm development, and aircraft flux studies. Based on regional field data verification, this multitemporal one-kilometer AVHRR land cover mapping approach was effective in characterizing the biome-level land cover structure, embedded spatially heterogeneous landscape patterns, and other types of key land cover information of interest to BOREAS modelers.The land cover mosaics in this classification include: (1) wet conifer mosaic (low, medium, and high tree stand density), (2) mixed coniferous-deciduous forest (80% coniferous, codominant, and 80% deciduous), (3) recent visible bum, vegetation regeneration, or rock outcrops-bare ground-sparsely vegetated slow regeneration bum (four classes), (4) open water and grassland marshes, and (5) general agricultural land use/ grasslands (three classes). This land cover mapping approach did not detect small subpixel-scale landscape features such as fens, bogs, and small water bodies. Field observations and comparisons with Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) suggest a minimum effective resolution of these land cover classes in the range of three to four kilometers, in part, because of the daily to monthly compositing process. In general, potential accuracy limitations are mitigated by the use of conservative parameterization rules such as aggregation of predominant land cover classes within minimum horizontal grid cell sizes of ten kilometers. The AFM-12 one-kilometer AVHRR seasonal land cover classification data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).
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Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) cloud parameterizations generally include an assumption about the subgrid-scale probability distribution function (PDF) of total water and its vertical profile. In the present study, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) monthly-mean cloud amount and relative humidity fields are used to compute a proxy for the second moment of an AGCM total water PDF called the RH01 diagnostic, which is the AIRS mean relative humidity for cloud fractions of 0.1 or less. The dependence of the second moment on horizontal grid resolution is analyzed using results from a high-resolution global model simulation.The AIRS-derived RH01 diagnostic is generally larger near the surface than aloft, indicating a narrower PDF near the surface, and varies with the type of underlying surface. High-resolution model results show that the vertical structure of profiles of the AGCM PDF second moment is unchanged as the grid resolution changes from 200 to 100 to 50 km, and that the second-moment profiles shift toward higher values with decreasing grid spacing.Several Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), AGCM simulations were performed with several choices for the profile of the PDF second moment. The resulting cloud and relative humidity fields were shown to be quite sensitive to the prescribed profile, and the use of a profile based on the AIRS-derived proxy results in improvements relative to observational estimates. The AIRS-guided total water PDF profiles, including their dependence on underlying surface type and on horizontal resolution, have been implemented in the version of the GEOS-5 AGCM used for publicly released simulations.
Abstract This study develops a surrogate‐based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and land surface. Perturbed physics ensembles of the model during the 2018 summer are used to train a neural network surrogate model to predict lake surface temperature (LST) and near‐surface air temperature (T2m). Average physics uncertainties are determined to be 1.5C for LST and T2m over land, and 1.9C for T2m over lake, but these have significant spatiotemporal variations. We find that atmospheric physics parameterizations alone are the dominant sources of uncertainty (45%–53%), while lake and land parameterizations account for 33% and 38% of the uncertainty of LST and T2m over land respectively. Interactions of atmosphere physics parameterizations with those of the land and lake contribute to an additional 13%–17% of the total variance. LST and T2m over the lake are more uncertain in the deeper northern lakes, particularly during the rapid warming phase that occurs in late spring/early summer. The LST uncertainty increases with sensitivity to the lake model's surface wind stress scheme. T2m over land is more uncertain over forested areas in the north, where it is most sensitive to the land surface model, than the more agricultural land in the south, where it is most sensitive to the atmospheric planetary boundary and surface layer scheme. Uncertainty also increases in the southwest during multiday temperature declines with higher sensitivity to the land surface model.
Abstract Gravity waves (GWs) are among the key drivers of the meridional overturning circulation in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. Their representation in climate models suffers from insufficient resolution and limited observational constraints on their parameterizations. This obscures assessments of middle atmospheric circulation changes in a changing climate. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of stratospheric GW activity above and downstream of the Andes from 1 to 15 August 2019, with special focus on GW representation ranging from an unprecedented kilometer-scale global forecast model (1.4 km ECMWF IFS), ground-based Rayleigh lidar (CORAL) observations, modern reanalysis (ERA5), to a coarse-resolution climate model (EMAC). Resolved vertical flux of zonal GW momentum (GWMF) is found to be stronger by a factor of at least 2–2.5 in IFS compared to ERA5. Compared to resolved GWMF in IFS, parameterizations in ERA5 and EMAC continue to inaccurately generate excessive GWMF poleward of 60°S, yielding prominent differences between resolved and parameterized GWMFs. A like-to-like validation of GW profiles in IFS and ERA5 reveals similar wave structures. Still, even at ∼1 km resolution, the resolved waves in IFS are weaker than those observed by lidar. Further, GWMF estimates across datasets reveal that temperature-based proxies, based on midfrequency approximations for linear GWs, overestimate GWMF due to simplifications and uncertainties in GW wavelength estimation from data. Overall, the analysis provides GWMF benchmarks for parameterization validation and calls for three-dimensional GW parameterizations, better upper-boundary treatment, and vertical resolution increases commensurate with increases in horizontal resolution in models, for a more realistic GW analysis. Significance Statement Gravity wave–induced momentum forcing forms a key component of the middle atmospheric circulation. However, complete knowledge of gravity waves, their atmospheric effects, and their long-term trends are obscured due to limited global observations, and the inability of current climate models to fully resolve them. This study combines a kilometer-scale forecast model, modern reanalysis, and a coarse-resolution climate model to first compare the resolved and parameterized momentum fluxes by gravity waves generated over the Andes, and then evaluate the fluxes using a state-of-the-art ground-based Rayleigh lidar. Our analysis reveals shortcomings in current model parameterizations of gravity waves in the middle atmosphere and highlights the sensitivity of the estimated flux to the formulation used.
Two dimensional modeling has become an established technique for the simulation of the global structure of trace constituents. Such models are simpler to formulate and cheaper to operate than three dimensional general circulation models, while avoiding some of the gross simplifications of one dimensional models. Nevertheless, the parameterization of eddy fluxes required in a 2-D model is not a trivial problem. This fact has apparently led some to interpret the shortcomings of existing 2-D models as indicating that the parameterization procedure is wrong in principle. There are grounds to believe that these shortcomings result primarily from incorrect implementations of the predictions of eddy transport theory and that a properly based parameterization may provide a good basis for atmospheric modeling. The existence of these GCM-derived coefficients affords an unprecedented opportunity to test the validity of the flux-gradient parameterization. To this end, a zonally averaged (2-D) model was developed, using these coefficients in the transport parameterization. Results from this model for a number of contrived tracer experiments were compared with the parent GCM. The generally good agreement substantially validates the flus-gradient parameterization, and thus the basic principle of 2-D modeling.
A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) project is being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the IndoChina/South China Sea (SCS) region. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. The original MM5 model (without PLACE) includes the option for either a simple slab soil model or a five-layer soil model (MRF) in which the soil moisture availability evolves over time. However, the MM5 soil models do not include the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are precluded. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. In addition, the Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system has been: (1) coupled to the Goddard Ice Microphysical scheme; (2) coupled to a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) scheme; (3) modified to ensure cloud budget balance; and (4) incorporated initialization with the Goddard EOS data sets at NASA/Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. The improved MM5 with two nested domains (60 and 20 km horizontal resolution) was used to simulate convective activity over IndoChina and the South China Sea, during the monsoon season, from May 6 to May 20, 1986. The model results captured several dominant observed features, such as twin cyclones, a depression system over the Bay of Bengal, strong south-westerly winds over IndoChina before and during the on-set of convection over the SCS, and a vortex over the SCS. Two additional MM5 runs with different land process models, Blackadar and MRF, were performed, and their results are compared to the run with PLACE. The preliminary results indicate that the MM5 results using PLACE and Blackadar are in very good agreement, but the results using MRF do not contain the south-westerly wind over IndoChina prior to the on-set of convection over the SCS.
A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, North America and South America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, PLACE allows for the effect A vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1991 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the South China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.
The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM), a science and engineering model for empirically parameterizing the temperature, pressure, density, and wind structure of the Martian atmosphere, is described with particular attention to the model's newest version, Mars-GRAM, Release No. 2 and to the improvements incorporated into the Release No. 2 model as compared with the Release No. 1 version. These improvements include (1) an addition of a new capability to simulate local-scale Martian dust storms and the growth and decay of these storms; (2) an addition of the Zurek and Haberle (1988) wave perturbation model, for simulating tidal perturbation effects; and (3) a new modular version of Mars-GRAM, for incorporation as a subroutine into other codes.
Atmospheric models with typical resolution in the tenths of kilometers cannot resolve the dynamics of air parcel ascent, which varies on scales ranging from tens to hundreds of meters. Small-scale wind fluctuations are thus characterized by a subgrid distribution of vertical wind velocity W with standard deviation σ W . The parameterization of σ W is fundamental to the representation of aerosol–cloud interactions, yet it is poorly constrained. Using a novel deep learning technique, this work develops a new parameterization for σ W merging data from global storm-resolving model simulations, high-frequency retrievals of W , and climate reanalysis products. The parameterization reproduces the observed statistics of σ W and leverages learned physical relations from the model simulations to guide extrapolation beyond the observed domain. Incorporating observational data during the training phase was found to be critical for its performance. The parameterization can be applied online within large-scale atmospheric models, or offline using output from weather forecasting and reanalysis products.
Recent results from a thermodynamic model of aqueous sulfuric acid are used to derive a new parameterization for the variation of sulfuric acid aerosol composition with temperature and relative humidity. This formulation is valid for relative humidities above 1 % in the temperature range of 185 to 260 K. An expression for calculating the vapor pressure of supercooled liquid water, consistent with the sulfuric acid model, is also presented. We show that the Steele and Hamill [1981] formulation underestimates the water partial pressure over aqueous H2SOI solutions by up to 12% at low temperatures. This difference results in a corresponding underestimate of the H2SO4 concentration in the aerosol by about 6 % of the weight percent at approximately 190 K. In addition, the relation commonly used for estimating the vapor pressure of H2O over supercooled liquid water differs by up to 10 % from our derived expression. The combined error can result in a 20 % underestimation of water activity over a H2SO4 solution droplet in the stratosphere, which has implications for the parameterization of heterogeneous reaction rates in stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosols. The influence of aerosol composition on the rate of homogeneous ice nucleation from a H2SO4 solution droplet is also discussed. This parameterization can also be used for homogeneous gas phase nucleation calculations of H2SO4 solution droplets under various environmental conditions such as in aircraft exhaust or in volcanic plumes.
Monthlong simulations targeting four Madden–Julian oscillation events made with several global model configurations are verified against observations to assess the roles of grid spacing and convective parameterization on the representation of tropical convection and midlatitude forecast skill. Specifically, the performance of a global convection-permitting model (CPM) configuration with a uniform 3-km mesh is compared to that of a global 15-km mesh with and without convective parameterization, and of a variable-resolution “channel” simulation using 3-km grid spacing only in the tropics with a scale-aware convection scheme. It is shown that global 3-km simulations produce realistic tropical precipitation statistics, except for an overall wet bias and delayed diurnal cycle. The channel simulation performs similarly, although with an unrealistically higher frequency of heavy rain. The 15-km simulations with and without cumulus schemes produce too much light and heavy tropical precipitation, respectively. Without convection parameterization, the 15-km global model produces unrealistically abundant, short-lived, and intense convection throughout the tropics. Only the global CPM configuration is able to capture eastward-propagating Madden–Julian oscillation events, and the 15-km runs favor stationary or westward-propagating convection organized at the planetary scale. The global 3-km CPM exhibits the highest extratropical forecast skill aloft and at the surface, particularly during week 3 of each hindcast. Although more cases are needed to confirm these results, this study highlights many potential benefits of using global CPMs for subseasonal forecasting. Furthermore, results show that alternatives to global convection-permitting resolution—using coarser or spatially variable resolution—feature compromises that may reduce their predictive performance.
A three-dimensional (3D) planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization was added to the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) model and the first coupled atmosphere/wave "gray zone" simulations were carried out using the 3D PBL parameterization. A case study of a significant wind-wave event from 4-8 November 2020 off the US west coast was examined, with a focus on the impacts of the event within an approximate 280x280 km central California coastal region covering the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Morro Bay wind energy lease area. Simulations with both one-dimensional (1D; Yonsei University) and 3D PBL parameterizations were examined in this nest with ..delta..x=400 m. Two-way coupling was active, with near-surface winds feeding back to the wave model and bulk wave statistics feeding back to the atmospheric model. Both simulations compared favorably with buoy observations in capturing the timing and magnitude of wind speed, temperature, dewpoint, and significant wave height, as the front associated with the maritime weather system moved southward across coastal California. However, wind speed errors over land were larger. Time series of the vertical profile of winds below z=250 m from the simulations compared favorably with observations from the US Dept. of Energy Morro Bay Doppler lidar buoy. Differences between the coupled 1D and 3D PBL simulations were minor. The most notable difference was that the simulation using the 3D PBL parameterization had approximately 10 % weaker winds at the peak of the event causing 10 % lower significant wave heights. This difference was shown to be mostly due to differences in the vertical mixing treatment between the parameterizations, in particular the nonlocal downward mixing of higher momentum air in the 1D Yonsei University parameterization in convective conditions. Overall, this work demonstrates that the 3D PBL parameterization can be used in a coupled atmosphere/wave modeling framework with similar behaviors as traditional PBL parameterizations that do not provide horizontal turbulent variances and fluxes.
Based on the single-scattering optical properties that are pre-computed using an improve geometric optics method, the bulk mass absorption coefficient, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry factor of ice particles have been parameterized as a function of the mean effective particle size of a mixture of ice habits. The parameterization has been applied to compute fluxes for sample clouds with various particle size distributions and assumed mixtures of particle habits. Compared to the parameterization for a single habit of hexagonal column, the solar heating of clouds computed with the parameterization for a mixture of habits is smaller due to a smaller cosingle-scattering albedo. Whereas the net downward fluxes at the TOA and surface are larger due to a larger asymmetry factor. The maximum difference in the cloud heating rate is approx. 0.2 C per day, which occurs in clouds with an optical thickness greater than 3 and the solar zenith angle less than 45 degrees. Flux difference is less than 10 W per square meters for the optical thickness ranging from 0.6 to 10 and the entire range of the solar zenith angle. The maximum flux difference is approximately 3%, which occurs around an optical thickness of 1 and at high solar zenith angles.
A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/ South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-C loud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. PLACE allows for the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1997 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.