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At least 91 records · Page 5

Exploring the southern ocean response to climate change

The purpose of this project was to couple a regional (Southern Ocean) ocean/sea ice model to the existing Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This modification recognizes: the relative isolation of the Southern Ocean; the need to account, prognostically, for the significant air/sea/ice interaction through all involved components; and the advantage of translating the atmospheric lower boundary (typically the rapidly changing ocean surface) to a level that is consistent with the physical response times governing the system evolution (that is, to the base of the fast responding ocean surface layer). The deeper ocean beneath this layer varies on time scales several orders of magnitude slower than the atmosphere and surface ocean, and therefore the boundary between the upper and deep ocean represents a more reasonable fixed boundary condition.

Martinson, Douglas G.↗

Applications and Improvement of a Coupled, Global and Cloud-Resolving Modeling System

Recently Grabowski (2001) and Khairoutdinov and Randall (2001) have proposed the use of 2D CFWs as a "super parameterization" [or multi-scale modeling framework (MMF)] to represent cloud processes within atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). In the MMF, a fine-resolution 2D CRM takes the place of the single-column parameterization used in conventional GCMs. A prototype Goddard MMF based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM) is now being developed. The prototype includes the fvGCM run at 2.50 x 20 horizontal resolution with 32 vertical layers from the surface to 1 mb and the 2D (x-z) GCE using 64 horizontal and 32 vertical grid points with 4 km horizontal resolution and a cyclic lateral boundary. The time step for the 2D GCE would be 15 seconds, and the fvGCM-GCE coupling frequency would be 30 minutes (i.e. the fvGCM physical time step). We have successfully developed an fvGCM-GCE coupler for this prototype. Because the vertical coordinate of the fvGCM (a terrain-following floating Lagrangian coordinate) is different from that of the GCE (a z coordinate), vertical interpolations between the two coordinates are needed in the coupler. In interpolating fields from the GCE to fvGCM, we use an existing fvGCM finite- volume piecewise parabolic mapping (PPM) algorithm, which conserves the mass, momentum, and total energy. A new finite-volume PPM algorithm, which conserves the mass, momentum and moist static energy in the z coordinate, is being developed for interpolating fields from the fvGCM to the GCE. In the meeting, we will discuss the major differences between the two MMFs (i.e., the CSU MMF and the Goddard MMF). We will also present performance and critical issues related to the MMFs. In addition, we will present multi-dimensional cloud datasets (i.e., a cloud data library) generated by the Goddard MMF that will be provided to the global modeling community to help improve the representation and performance of moist processes in climate models and to improve our understanding of cloud processes globally (the software tools needed to produce cloud statistics and to identify various types of clouds and cloud systems from both high-resolution satellite and model data will be also presented).

Tao, W.-K.↗

Numerical simulation of the world ocean circulation

A multi-level model, based on the primitive equations, is developed for simulating the temperature and velocity fields produced in the world ocean by differential heating and surface wind stress. The model ocean has constant depth, free slip at the lower boundary, and neglects momentum advection; so that there is no energy exchange between the barotropic and baroclinic components of the motion, although the former influences the latter through temperature advection. The ocean model was designed to be coupled to the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model, for the study of the dynamics of climate and climate changes. But here, the model is tested by prescribing the observed seasonally varying surface wind stress and the incident solar radiation, the surface air temperature and humidity, cloudiness and the surface wind speed, which, together with the predicted ocean surface temperature, determine the surface flux of radiant energy, sensible heat and latent heat.

Takano, K.↗

Impact of Radiatively Interactive Dust Aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 Climate Model: Sensitivity to Dust Particle Shape and Refractive Index

We investigate the radiative effects of dust aerosols in the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model. GEOS-5 is improved with the inclusion of a sectional aerosol and cloud microphysics module, the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA). Into CARMA we introduce treatment of the dust and sea salt aerosol lifecycle, including sources, transport evolution, and sinks. The aerosols are radiatively coupled to GEOS-5, and we perform a series of multi-decade AMIP-style simulations in which dust optical properties (spectral refractive index and particle shape distribution) are varied. Optical properties assuming spherical dust particles are from Mie theory, while those for non-spherical shape distributions are drawn from a recently available database for tri-axial ellipsoids. The climatologies of the various simulations generally compare well to data from the MODIS, MISR, and CALIOP space-based sensors, the ground-based AERONET, and surface measurements of dust deposition and concentration. Focusing on the summertime Saharan dust cycle we show significant variability in our simulations resulting from different choices of dust optical properties. Atmospheric heating due to dust enhances surface winds over important Saharan dust sources, and we find a positive feedback where increased dust absorption leads to increased dust emissions. We further find that increased dust absorption leads to a strengthening of the summertime Hadley cell circulation, increasing dust lofting to higher altitudes and strengthening the African Easterly Jet. This leads to a longer atmospheric residence time, higher altitude, and generally more northward transport of dust in simulations with the most absorbing dust optical properties. We find that particle shape, although important for radiance simulations, is a minor effect compared to choices of refractive index, although total atmospheric forcing is enhanced by greater than 10 percent for simulations incorporating a spheroidal shape distribution versus ellipsoidal or spherical shapes.

radiative forcing↗

The Onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Within an Aquaplanet Model

A series of numerical experiments using a two-level atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) were performed for the purpose of investigating the coupling between sea surface temperature (SST) profile and the onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The AGCM was modified to run as an aquaplane with all seasonal forcing removed. SST distributions based on the New Global Sea-Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (GISST) Data Set for 1903-1994 were generated then modified to vary the north-south gradient and tropical temperatures. It was found that the MJO signal did not depend on the SST temperature gradients but rather on the absolute temperature of the equatorial region, EOF analysis revealed that the SST distribution which generated the strongest MJO signal produced a periodic fluctuation in velocity potential at the 250 millibar level with a phase speed of 15 m/s, and a periodicity of 30 days which falls within the shortest limit of observed oscillations. This distribution also possessed the coolest equatorial SSTs which suggests that increased stability in the atmosphere favors the occurrence of organized MJO propagation.

Colon, Edward↗

The Potential for Predicting Precipitation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

The ability to predict precipitation several months in advance would have a significant impact on water resource management. This talk provides an overview of a project aimed at developing this prediction capability. NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) will generate seasonal-to-interannual sea surface temperature predictions through detailed ocean circulation modeling and will then translate these SST forecasts into forecasts of continental precipitation through the application of an atmospheric general circulation model and a "SVAT"-type land surface model. As part of the process, ocean variables (e.g., height) and land variables (e.g., soil moisture) will be updated regularly via data assimilation. The overview will include a discussion of the variability inherent in such a modeling system and will provide some quantitative estimates of the absolute upper limits of seasonal-to-interannual precipitation predictability.

Koster, R. D.↗

Confronting Models with Data: The GEWEX Cloud Systems Study

The GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS; GEWEX is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) was organized to promote development of improved parameterizations of cloud systems for use in climate and numerical weather prediction models, with an emphasis on the climate applications. The strategy of GCSS is to use two distinct kinds of models to analyze and understand observations of the behavior of several different types of clouds systems. Cloud-system-resolving models (CSRMs) have high enough spatial and temporal resolutions to represent individual cloud elements, but cover a wide enough range of space and time scales to permit statistical analysis of simulated cloud systems. Results from CSRMs are compared with detailed observations, representing specific cases based on field experiments, and also with statistical composites obtained from satellite and meteorological analyses. Single-column models (SCMs) are the surgically extracted column physics of atmospheric general circulation models. SCMs are used to test cloud parameterizations in an un-coupled mode, by comparison with field data and statistical composites. In the original GCSS strategy, data is collected in various field programs and provided to the CSRM Community, which uses the data to "certify" the CSRMs as reliable tools for the simulation of particular cloud regimes, and then uses the CSRMs to develop parameterizations, which are provided to the GCM Community. We report here the results of a re-thinking of the scientific strategy of GCSS, which takes into account the practical issues that arise in confronting models with data. The main elements of the proposed new strategy are a more active role for the large-scale modeling community, and an explicit recognition of the importance of data integration.

Randall, David↗

Use of Combined A-Train Observations to Validate GEOS Model Simulated Dust Distributions During NAMMA

During August 2006, the NASA African Multidisciplinary Analyses Mission (NAMMA) field experiment was conducted to characterize the structure of African Easterly Waves and their evolution into tropical storms. Mineral dust aerosols affect tropical storm development, although their exact role remains to be understood. To better understand the role of dust on tropical cyclogenesis, we have implemented a dust source, transport, and optical model in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric general circulation model and data assimilation system. Our dust source scheme is more physically based scheme than previous incarnations of the model, and we introduce improved dust optical and microphysical processes through inclusion of a detailed microphysical scheme. Here we use A-Train observations from MODIS, OMI, and CALIPSO with NAMMA DC-8 flight data to evaluate the simulated dust distributions and microphysical properties. Our goal is to synthesize the multi-spectral observations from the A-Train sensors to arrive at a consistent set of optical properties for the dust aerosols suitable for direct forcing calculations.

Nowottnick, E.↗

The global geochemistry of bomb-produced tritium - General circulation model compared to available observations and traditional interpretations

Observational evidence suggests that of the tritium produced during nuclear bomb tests that has already reached the ocean, more than twice as much arrived through vapor impact as through precipitation. In the present study, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 8 x 10 deg atmospheric general circulation model is used to simulate tritium transport from the upper atmosphere to the ocean. The simulation indicates that tritium delivery to the ocean via vapor impact is about equal to that via precipitation. The model result is relatively insensitive to several imposed changes in tritium source location, in model parameterizations, and in model resolution. Possible reasons for the discrepancy are explored.

Koster, Randal D.↗

On the Use and Validation of Mosaic Heterogeneity in Atmospheric Numerical Models

The mosaic land modeling approach allows for the representation of multiple surface types in a single atmospheric general circulation model grid box. Each surface type, collectively called 'tiles' correspond to different sets of surface characteristics (e.g. for grass, crop or forest). Typically, the tile space data is averaged to grid space by weighting the tiles with their fractional cover. While grid space data is routinely evaluated, little attention has been given to the tile space data. The present paper explores uses of the tile space surface data in validation with station observations. The results indicate the limitations that the mosaic heterogeneity parameterization has in reproducing variations observed between stations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains field site.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..

Brown, Molly E.↗

The Surface Radiation Budget and Cloud Climate Interactions as a Part of CERES

Work that has been completed is described in reprints and preprints, and summaries in terms of broad categories are given as follows: (1) The Relationship between Surface and Satellite Shortwave Radiative Fluxes; (2) Cloud-Climate Interactions in Atmospheric General Circulation Models; (3) Absorption of Shortwave radiation by clouds; (4) Clear-sky atmospheres shortwave radiation; and (5) Surface shortwave radiation measurements.

Cess, Robert D.↗

Modeling the terrestrial hydrology for the global atmosphere - The future role of satellite data

A global terrestrial hydrology model has been developed for the transport and storage of moisture and heat in the ground surface layer where the hydrological parameters react to diurnal and seasonal changes in the atmosphere. The spatial and temporal variability of land surface features is considered in the model by means of large scale parameterizations. The model can be either forced by the atmosphere using conventional meteorological data or coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) for interactive studies. The global surface is divided into 4 deg longitude by 5 deg latitude cells while the ground is represented by a thin surface layer, a bulk layer (the root zone), and a deep layer (the ground water zone). Results are presented from a seven-day global experiment which was conducted utilizing the GLAS GCM (NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences). The model has demonstrated its capability to predict, over a large region, the overall soil moisture storage and major flux exchanges with the atmosphere above and the ground water below.

Lin, J. D.↗

A protocol and analysis of year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models and beyond

We propose a protocol to evaluate and analyze year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models (GSRMs). The proposed protocol complements an earlier 40-day simulation protocol under the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains) project to allow the analysis of the seasonal cycle and associated climatic relevant phenomena. This intercomparison aims to reveal how GSRMs, which can simulate mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the global domain, reproduce atmospheric large-scale structures related to convection beyond month-long simulations. The intercomparison for one-year simulations is conducted by either atmosphere-only models or atmosphere–ocean coupled models with atmospheric horizontal mesh sizes less than 5 km. We recommend the continuous four seasons from March 2020 to February 2021 as a target period for the intercomparison but with options for many groups to join more flexibly. The output variables are collected at 0.25° resolution, and archives of a small set of native grid variables are encouraged to analyze tropical cyclones and MCSs. Through the proposed global storm-resolving simulation, we will evaluate the climatological distributions of the atmospheric large-scale circulations, such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoon, midlatitude jets, their time evolution, and the upscale impacts on them. We present sample analyses from a one-year simulation using the 3.5 km mesh Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), revealing the realistic zonal contrast of tropical precipitation, no double ITCZ structure, the reasonable midlatitude jet position and intensity but a weak bias of storm track activities, and a warm bias over the Eurasia during boreal winter. We also clarify the cross-scale interaction, such as the effects of cold pools on mean precipitation over the Maritime Continent through the precipitation diurnal cycle and the effects of resolved gravity waves on midlatitude mean flows. The proposed one-year simulation protocol is referred to as the “Sendai Protocol.” This protocol is not unique or definite for evaluating GSRMs; we prospect a hierarchical set of experiments from short-term to multi-year simulations as GSRM intercomparisons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing a Model-based Capability to Analyze Requirements for the Climate Observing System

Models are foundational for estimating states of the earth's climate system, both as tools to extrapolate information in time and space, and as observation 'operators' used to relate what is analyzed and predicted to what is observed. Expanding the simulation approach further, observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are designed to mimic the complete process of analyzing the climate state by replacing real observations with entirely simulated ones determined from a model-based depiction of nature. OSSEs provide a framework to 'fly' simulated satellite instruments through a synthetic atmosphere and investigate the trade-spaces of measurements for various satellite configurations and sampling strategies, and assess their measurement impact on modeling and forecasting capabilities. Such a tool is a crucial but as yet unfulfilled need for future mission selection and design. The components of a state-of-the-art OSSE system are being assembled at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Code 610.1) at NASA/GSFC, leveraging on the GMAO's existing modeling and data assimilation infrastructure for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The OSSE framework is based on the GMAO's Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model, version 5 (GEOS-5) and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) observational analysis scheme, combined with the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) model developed by the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch (Code 613.3). This system is an evolving, key component of Goddard's planned development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) capability, which will bring together into a single, fully interactive system Goddard's modeling and assimilation efforts in atmosphere, ocean and chemistry and aerosols to provide a comprehensive analysis and prediction system for weather and climate In addition to providing a state-of-the-art capability for assimilating current observation types, GEOS-5, and the future IESA, provide the capability to identify the need for, and assess the potential impact of, future observing systems under consideration for improving weather and climate prediction.

Gelaro, Ronald↗

Design of coupled ocean-atmosphere experiments

A series of numerical experiments which couple an atmospheric general circulation model to an ocean model in an idealized basin are discussed. The role of ocean atmosphere interactions in the development of anomalous sea surface temperatures during an El Nino event is outlined.

Suarez, M. J.↗

An Assessment of the Predictability of Northern Winter Seasonal Means with the NSIPP 1 AGCM

This atlas assesses the predictability of January-February-March (JFM) means using version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project Atmospheric General Circulation Model (the NSIPP 1 AGCM). The AGCM is part of the NSIPP coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. For these results, the atmosphere was run uncoupled from the ocean, but coupled with an interactive land model. The results are based on 20 ensembles of nine JFM hindcasts for the period 1980-1999, with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice specified from observations. The model integrations were started from initial atmospheric conditions (taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses) centered on December 15. The analysis focuses on 200 mb height, precipitation, surface temperature, and sea-level pressure. The results address issues of both predictability and forecast skill. Various signal-to-noise measures are computed to demonstrate the potential for skillful prediction on seasonal time scales under the assumption of a perfect model and perfectly known oceanic boundary forcings. The results show that the model produces a realistic ENSO response in both the tropics and extratropics.

Suarez, Max J.↗

Observational Evidence that Soil Moisture Variations Affect Precipitation

Land-atmosphere feedback, by which precipitation-induced soil moisture anomalies affect subsequent precipitation, may be an important element of Earth's climate system, but its very existence has never been demonstrated conclusively at regional to continental scales. Evidence for the feedback is sought in a 50-year observational precipitation dataset covering the United States. The precipitation variance and autocorrelation fields are characterized by features that agree (in structure, though not in magnitude) with those produced by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Because the model-generated features are known to result from land-atmosphere feedback alone, the observed features are highly suggestive of the existence of feedback in nature.

Koster, Randal D.↗