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Layer Precipitable Water (LPW) Briefing

Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS) provides soundings of specific humidity from a variety of instruments and is combined with AIRS infrared soundings to create a Layered Precipitable Water (LPW) composite product. The LPW provides vertical moisture information in the column instead of just upper levels via WV imagery, or a single column value via TPW products. LPW is created every 3 hours using the last 12 hours worth of data and has a delivery latency of 40 minutes. Weaknesses include discontinuities in the composite. Strengths include seeing through clouds, over land usage, and greater spatial coverage of vertical moisture profiles. Applications of LPW include analysis of horizontal and vertical moisture gradients, verification of NWP moisture, and analysis of atmospheric rivers and other moisture advection. Operational testbed is ongoing to determine viability of wider distribution.

Forsythe, John↗

Bias Correction for Assimilation of Retrieved AIRS Profiles of Temperature and Humidity

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral radiometer aboard NASA's Aqua satellite designed to measure atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity. AIRS retrievals are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over the North Pacific for some cases involving "atmospheric rivers". These events bring a large flux of water vapor to the west coast of North America and often lead to extreme precipitation in the coastal mountain ranges. An advantage of assimilating retrievals rather than radiances is that information in partly cloudy fields of view can be used. Two different Level 2 AIRS retrieval products are compared: the Version 6 AIRS Science Team standard retrievals and a neural net retrieval from MIT. Before assimilation, a bias correction is applied to adjust each layer of retrieved temperature and humidity so the layer mean values agree with a short-term model climatology. WRF runs assimilating each of the products are compared against each other and against a control run with no assimilation. This paper will describe the bias correction technique and results from forecasts evaluated by validation against a Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product from CIRA and against Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses.

Blankenship, Clay↗

Bias Correction for Assimilation of Retrieved AIRS Profiles of Temperature and Humidity

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral radiometer aboard NASA's Aqua satellite designed to measure atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity. AIRS retrievals are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over the North Pacific for some cases involving "atmospheric rivers". These events bring a large flux of water vapor to the west coast of North America and often lead to extreme precipitation in the coastal mountain ranges. An advantage of assimilating retrievals rather than radiances is that information in partly cloudy fields of view can be used. Two different Level 2 AIRS retrieval products are compared: the Version 6 AIRS Science Team standard retrievals and a neural net retrieval from MIT. Before assimilation, a bias correction is applied to adjust each layer of retrieved temperature and humidity so the layer mean values agree with a short‐term model climatology. WRF runs assimilating each of the products are compared against each other and against a control run with no assimilation. Forecasts are against ERA reanalyses.

Blakenship, Clay↗

Comparing Evaporative Sources of Terrestrial Precipitation and Their Extremes in MERRA Using Relative Entropy

A quasi-isentropic back trajectory scheme is applied to output from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications and a land-only replay with corrected precipitation to estimate surface evaporative sources of moisture supplying precipitation over every ice-free land location for the period 1979-2005. The evaporative source patterns for any location and time period are effectively two dimensional probability distributions. As such, the evaporative sources for extreme situations like droughts or wet intervals can be compared to the corresponding climatological distributions using the method of relative entropy. Significant differences are found to be common and widespread for droughts, but not wet periods, when monthly data are examined. At pentad temporal resolution, which is more able to isolate floods and situations of atmospheric rivers, values of relative entropy over North America are typically 50-400 larger than at monthly time scales. Significant differences suggest that moisture transport may be the key to precipitation extremes. Where evaporative sources do not change significantly, it implies other local causes may underlie the extreme events.

Climatological Distributions↗

Comparisons of Bin and Bulk Microphysics Schemes in Simulations of Topographic Winter Precipitation with Radar and Radiometer Measurements

The Hebrew University Cloud Model (HUCM) bin scheme and the Thompson bulk scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are compared to assess biases often found in simulated brightness temperature and radar reflectivity. Compared to our preceding study that evaluated several bulk schemes in the WRF model, the current study obtains a reduction of the bias from excessive microwave scattering by precipitation ice for both HUCM bin and the Thompson bulk microphysics schemes for a topographic winter precipitation event associated with an atmospheric river. The Thompson particle size distributions (PSDs) and snow particle density assumption are implemented into the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (G‐SDSU) and have produced improvements. Despite the greater sophistication of the bin scheme in representing cloud and precipitation processes, the simulation with the Thompson bulk scheme is generally in better agreement with observations for this winter event. The explicitly resolved hydrometeor PSDs in HUCM enable analysis of mass spectra variations in response to changes in microphysics assumptions. Two HUCM sensitivity runs tested the enhancement of snow particle breakup and the influence of ice nuclei (IN) concentration. Higher IN concentration resulted in increased snow mass and broadened the spectrum toward small‐size particles. Modified snow mass spectra and resultant changes in graupel contributed to modifications in scattering and reflectivity simulations. The article demonstrates the bin scheme's capability to provide a new means to improve our understanding of uncertainties in mesoscale weather models and radiative transfer models.

microwave remote sensing↗

North American Extreme Precipitation Events and Related Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns: a Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than one week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some 4 promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating model dynamics.

Mathew Barlow↗

ARTMIP Tier 2 Reanalysis Discussion

These slides are intended to initiate a discussion regarding an intercomparison of atmospheric river (ARs) tracking methods in various reanalysis products. Questions that may be answered as part of this tier of experiments is how do ARs differ among reanalyses, is there a concern regarding resolution, and what is the uncertainty within a single reanalysis.

Collow, Allie↗

What Caused the Record Floods of March 2019 Across the Middle East?

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for some of the hydroclimatic extremes around the world. Their mechanisms and contribution to flooding in the Middle East are relatively poorly understood. This study shows that the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East were caused by a powerful AR, originated from the North Atlantic Ocean. Iran, in particular, was substantially affected by the floods. The nearly 9000 km long AR propagated across North Africa and the Middle-East, and was fed by additional moisture from several other sources on its pathway. Simultaneous presence of a mid-latitude system and a subtropical jet facilitated the moisture supply. The AR, as passing over the Zagros Mountains, produced record rainfall induced by the orographic forcing.

Dezfuli, Amin↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-30053-DND

The 2016-17 Arctic sea ice growth season (October-March) exhibited one of the lowest end-of-season sea ice volume and extent of any year since 1979. An analysis of MERRA2 atmospheric reanalysis data and CERES radiative flux data reveals that a record warm and moist Arctic atmosphere supported the reduced sea ice growth through two pathways. First, numerous regional episodes of increased atmospheric temperature and moisture, transported from lower latitudes, increased the cumulative energy input from downwelling longwave surface fluxes. Second, in those same episodes, the efficiency that the atmosphere cooled radiatively to space was reduced, increasing the amount of energy retained in the Arctic atmosphere and reradiated back toward the surface. Overall, the Arctic radiative cooling efficiency shows a decreasing trend since 2000. The results presented highlight the increasing importance of atmospheric forcing on sea ice variability demonstrating that episodic Arctic atmospheric rivers, regions of elevated poleward water vapor transport, and the subsequent surface energy budget response is a critical mechanism actively contributing to the evolution of Arctic sea ice.

Bradley Hegyi↗

Observing Fast Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes with a Geostationary Microwave Sounder

A geostationary microwave sounder, GeoSTAR, capable of providing continuous monitoring every 15 minutes of atmospheric temperature, water vapor, clouds, precipitation, and wind in the presence of clouds and precipitation, which will add tremendously to our ability to observe rapidly evolving dynamic atmospheric phenomena, such as hurricanes and severe storms, monsoonal moisture flow, and atmospheric rivers, has been developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. GeoSTAR uses aperture synthesis to overcome the difficulty of attaining adequate spatial resolution from geostationary orbit. It is made possible with new technology that has now been developed and fully tested. Low-risk mission development can start as soon as funding becomes available. The sensor can be hosted on a commercial communications satellite, which could reduce the cost substantially. Plans have been developed at JPL for such a mission, called “GeoStorm”, focused on observing severe convective storms – tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and extratropical cyclones – with a goal of improving our understanding, modeling and prediction of these destructive phenomena. It can equally well be configured as an operational mission, where the goal is to collect data for immediate assimilation into regional forecast systems, provide “now-casting” as the storms unfold, and support post-disaster relief and recovery efforts. With key observables including vertical profiles of temperature, water vapor, wind and precipitation over a wide area, many focused applications are possible, particularly pertaining to aviation, transportation and marine operations, in both the civilian and defense domains.

Lambrigsten, Bjorn↗

Geostar – a ‘Shovel Ready’ Geostationary Microwave Sounder

A geostationary microwave sounder, capable of providing temperature, water vapor, clouds, precipitation, and wind in the presence of clouds, convection and precipitation, will add tremendously to our ability to observe dynamic atmospheric phenomena, such as hurricanes and severe storms, monsoonal moisture flow, atmospheric rivers, etc. Such a sensor is now feasible, enabled by technology that has been developed under NASA’s Instrument Incubator Program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The Geostationary Synthetic Thinned Aperture Radiometer (GeoSTAR) is essentially an “AMSU in GEO”, i.e. it has similar capabilities as AMSU would have if it were operating on a geostationary satellite, but with similar spatial resolution. GEO orbits are almost 50 times higher than the LEO orbits that current AMSUs operate from, and the corresponding scaling of aperture size required to maintain spatial resolution has stymied the development of such a sensor for many decades. The aperture synthesis approach implemented with GeoSTAR finally overcomes that obstacle, and the large number of microwave receivers and associated electronics required is made possible with new technology that has now been developed. A low-cost mission operating as a hosted payload on a commercial communications satellite has been designed and is “shovel-ready”. The objectives of such a mission could be to advance our understanding and modeling of storm processes that control rapid or explosive intensification of hurricanes, mesoscale convective systems, and extratropical cyclones, or it could be to support operational weather forecasting and nowcasting. Retrieval of temperature and water vapor profiles is possible even in the presence of moderate precipitation, and with the ability to derive horizontal wind vectors by tracking water vapor features, a rich set of parameters measuring the thermodynamics, dynamics and convection and sampled every 15 minutes, will enable significant progress in storm science and forecasting.

Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H↗

Dynamical Mechanisms Underlying the 2022/23 California Flooding: Analysis With A Stationary Wave Model

In late December 2022 and the first half of January 2023, much of California experienced an unprecedented series of atmospheric rivers that produced heavy rains and near-record flooding. Previous work shows that a chain of dynamical events contributed to the extreme precipitation, including the development of a Rossby wave (as a result of forcing linked to the MJO) that emerged from the Indian Ocean in mid-December, and the subsequent development of a persistent positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern that ultimately directed moisture onto the US West Coast starting in late December. Here, we use a stationary wave model (SWM) to further elucidate the dynamical and thermodynamical processes that drove the aforementioned chain of events. The results reveal the following: 1) The mid-December Rossby wave was likely induced by vorticity stretching and advection in the middle East linked indirectly to the MJO, 2) The initial development of the PNA in late December was triggered by transient and stretching sources of vorticity in the Pacific that were themselves induced by the aforementioned Rossby wave, and 3) The PNA was maintained through mid-January in part by diabatic heating west of Hawaii that was associated with anomalous precipitation influenced by the PNA circulation anomalies, thus representing a feedback on the PNA. One key finding from the SWM analysis is the limited direct role of tropical heating for inducing any of the dynamical mechanisms related to the California extreme event.

Anthony M. DeAngelis↗

Dynamical Mechanisms Underlying the 2022/23 California Flooding: Analysis With A Stationary Wave Model

In late December 2022 and the first half of January 2023, much of California experienced an unprecedented series of atmospheric rivers that produced heavy rains and near-record flooding. Previous work shows that a chain of dynamical events contributed to the extreme precipitation, including the development of a Rossby wave (as a result of forcing linked to the MJO) that emerged from the Indian Ocean in mid-December, and the subsequent development of a persistent positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern that ultimately directed moisture onto the US West Coast starting in late December. Here, we use a stationary wave model (SWM) to further elucidate the dynamical and thermodynamical processes that drove the aforementioned chain of events. The results reveal the following: 1) The mid-December Rossby wave was likely induced by vorticity stretching and advection in the middle East linked indirectly to the MJO, 2) The initial development of the PNA in late December was triggered by transient and stretching sources of vorticity in the Pacific that were themselves induced by the aforementioned Rossby wave, and 3) The PNA was maintained through mid-January in part by diabatic heating west of Hawaii that was associated with anomalous precipitation influenced by the PNA circulation anomalies, thus representing a feedback on the PNA. One key finding from the SWM analysis is the limited direct role of tropical heating for inducing any of the dynamical mechanisms related to the California extreme event.

Anthony M. DeAngelis↗

Evaporation of ice in planetary atmospheres: Ice-covered rivers on Mars

The evaporation rate of water ice on the surface of a planet with an atmosphere involves an equilibrium between solar heating and radiative and evaporative cooling of the ice layer. The thickness of the ice is governed principally by the solar flux which penetrates the ice layer and then is conducted back to the surface. Evaporation from the surface is governed by wind and free convection. In the absence of wind, eddy diffusion is caused by the lower density of water vapor in comparison to the density of the Martian atmosphere. For mean martian insolations, the evaporation rate above the ice is approximately 10 to the minus 8th power gm/sq cm/s. Evaporation rates are calculated for a wide range of frictional velocities, atmospheric pressures, and insolations and it seems clear that at least some subset of observed Martian channels may have formed as ice-chocked rivers. Typical equilibrium thicknesses of such ice covers are approximately 10m to 30 m; typical surface temperatures are 210 to 235 K.

Wallace, D.↗

Evaporation of ice in planetary atmospheres - Ice-covered rivers on Mars

The existence of ice covered rivers on Mars is considered. It is noted that the evaporation rate of water ice on the surface of a planet with an atmosphere involves an equilibrium between solar heating and radiative and evaporative cooling of the ice layer. It is determined that even with a mean Martian insolation rate above the ice of approximately 10 to the -8th g per sq cm/sec, a flowing channel of liquid water will be covered by ice which evaporates sufficiently slowly that the water below can flow for hundreds of kilometers even with modest discharges. Evaporation rates are calculated for a range of frictional velocities, atmospheric pressures, and insolations and it is suggested that some subset of observed Martian channels may have formed as ice-choked rivers. Finally, the exobiological implications of ice covered channels or lakes on Mars are discussed.

Wallace, D.↗

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

Miller, James R.↗

Interdisciplinary study of atmospheric processes and constituents of the mid-Atlantic coastal region. Attachment 4: Data set for background investigation of atmospheric constituents for Nansemond River site

Background data was provided for the assessment of the environmental impact of a proposed oil refinery location. Climatic background, particulate data, digitized portrayal of site molecular and meteorological data, graphical portrayal of molecular data, hourly meteorological data, and streamflow charts and radiosonde data are given

Kindle, E. C.↗

Simulation of Water Sources and Precipitation Recycling for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River Basins

An atmospheric general circulation model simulation for 1948-1997 of the water budgets for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River basins is presented. In addition to the water budget, we include passive tracers to identify the geographic sources of water for the basins, and the analysis focuses on the mechanisms contributing to precipitation recycling in each basin. While each basin s precipitation recycling has a strong dependency on evaporation during the mean annual cycle, the interannual variability of the recycling shows important relationships with the atmospheric circulation. The MacKenzie River basin has only a weak interannual dependency on evaporation, where the variations in zonal moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean can affect the basin water cycle. On the other hand, the Mississippi River basin has strong interannual dependencies on evaporation. While the precipitation recycling weakens with increased low level jet intensity, the evaporation variations exert stronger influence in providing water vapor for convective precipitation at the convective cloud base. High precipitation recycling is also found to be partly connected to warm SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Amazon River basin evaporation exhibits small interannual variations, so that the interannual variations of precipitation recycling are related to atmospheric moisture transport from the tropical south Atlantic Ocean. Increasing SSTs over the 50-year period are causing increased easterly transport across the basin. As moisture transport increases, the Amazon precipitation recycling decreases (without real time varying vegetation changes). In addition, precipitation recycling from a bulk diagnostic method is compared to the passive tracer method used in the analysis. While the mean values are different, the interannual variations are comparable between each method. The methods also exhibit similar relationships to the terms of the basin scale water budgets.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗