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DOE OSTI2024

Explaining Health Risk Behaviors in the U.S. with Social Deprivation at Local and Regional Levels

Health risk behaviors are precursors to many chronic health outcomes, and hence, they pose a challenge to public health. Social deprivation undoubtedly creates circumstances that limit access to healthy habits. Moreover, broad regional effects (weather patterns, political ideology, social norms), and local characteristics (cultural notions and barriers, urban places) also influence lifestyle choices and must be accounted for to truly understand the impact of social deprivation on risky behaviors. This research fills the knowledge gap in epidemiological modeling of health risk behaviors by leveraging machine learning to find associations between social deprivation and health risk behaviors, when adjusted by regional and local effects. Four health risk behaviors, namely, binge drinking, smoking, lack of sleep, and lack of physical activity from the CDC PLACES project are considered in a single framework to understand and compare the interplay between local/regional characteristics and seven measures of social deprivation. Our results indicate that local and/or regional factors rise to the top for three out of four risk behaviors (binge drinking, smoking and lack of sleep) out-competing social deprivation measures. Un-entangling the geographical effects reveals that poverty, educational attainment and non-employment are the three deprivation measures most significantly associated with all four health risk factors. The research thus indicates that public health policies to promote healthy lifestyle behaviors must seek to remedy social deprivation, but using socially and culturally sensitive interventions.

Gokhale, Swapna↗

DOE OSTI2023

Expansion of Hazards and Probabilistic Risk Assessments of a Light-Water Reactor Coupled with Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Plants

This report builds upon the body of work sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Flexible Power Operation and Generation (FPOG) program that presented generic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) for the addition of a heat extraction system (HES) to light-water reactors to support the co-location of a high temperature hydrogen electrolysis facility (HTEF). Probabilistic and deterministic hazards assessments and risk analyses are leveraged throughout this report. Several improvements and new analyses are included in this report. First, higher amounts of detail in the specifications of the generic HTEFs are used to produce scaled results for a 100, 500, and 1000 MW nominal hydrogen production facility. An additional hazard assessment of 1000 kg of hydrogen storage is performed. The facility hazards and footprint are assessed to determine the safe distance required for placement near the nuclear power plant (NPP). Second, specific designs for corresponding HESs for the different levels of support required by the HTEFs are analyzed in the PRA model. Third, a hazards analysis of the specified HTEFs leads not only to effects of the quantified risk assessment for the NPP, but also qualitative hazards assessment for the community. Finally, a seismic analysis and a high winds analysis have each been added to the PRA. The results investigate the applicability of the potential licensing approaches which do not require a full United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing review. The PRAs are generic and include listed assumptions. The HTEF design built for this project has further eliminated many conservative assumptions from the prior PRAs in this series. The PRA results indicate that the 10 CFR 50.59 licensing approach is justified due to the minimal increase in initiating event frequencies for all design basis accidents, with none exceeding 7.7%. The PRA results for core damage frequency and large early release frequency support the use of NRC Regulation Guide 1.174 as further risk information that supports a change without a full licensing amendment review. The hazard analyses and PRA confirm the need for engineered blast barriers of storage tanks and the common production header leaving the HTEF. The hazards analyses and PRA also confirm with high confidence that using the assumptions of design in this report that the safety case for licensing an HES addition and an HTEF sited with its unprotected high-pressure stage components 187 meters from the NPP’s transmission towers (the most fragile structure, system, and component) is strong.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

High levels of exfoliated fragments following glycocalyx destruction in hemorrhagic fever with the renal syndrome are associated with mortality risk

Background The glycocalyx is a gel-like structure that covers the luminal side of vascular endothelial cells. It plays an important role in maintaining the integrity of the vascular endothelial barrier structure. However, the presence or absence of glycocalyx destruction in hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and its specific mechanism and role is still unclear. Methods In this study, we detected the levels of exfoliated glycocalyx fragments, namely, heparan sulfate (HS), hyaluronic acid (HA), and chondroitin sulfate (CS), in HFRS patients and investigated their clinical application value on the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis prediction. Results The expression of exfoliated glycocalyx fragments in plasma was significantly increased during the acute stage of HFRS. The levels of HS, HA, and CS in HFRS patients during the acute stage were significantly higher than in healthy controls and convalescent stages of the same type. HS and CS during the acute stage gradually increased with the aggravation of HFRS, and both fragments showed a significant association with disease severity. In addition, exfoliated glycocalyx fragments (especially HS and CS) showed a significant correlation with conventional laboratory parameters and hospitalization days. High levels of HS and CS during the acute phase were significantly associated with patient mortality and demonstrated an obvious predictive value for the mortality risk of HFRS. Conclusion Glycocalyx destruction and shedding may be closely associated with endothelial hyperpermeability and microvascular leakage in HFRS. The dynamic detection of the exfoliated glycocalyx fragments may be beneficial for the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis prediction in HFRS.

Du, Hong↗

DOE OSTI2022

User’s Manual for Seal_Flux: A Seal Barrier Reduced-Order Model

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Studies of Alternative Ventilation Configurations to Mitigate Airborne Exposure Risks in Office Spaces

The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of alternative ventilation configurations on airflow patterns and potential exposure risks in office spaces. Two existing conference rooms at Sandia NM were modeled using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations to characterize airflow patterns and potential airborne exposure risks in well-mixed and once-through (through-flow) ventilation conditions. Multiple scenarios were studied to evaluate the impact of occupancy, Plexiglass barriers, and a modified-return airflow configuration. Experimental and visualization tests were also conducted to validate the well-mixed and through-flow models and findings. The simulations demonstrated that the modified-return airflow configuration that promoted through-flow conditions reduced pathogen concentrations within the space compared to the well-mixed airflow configuration; occupancy reduction only reduced the number of exposed individuals, and Plexiglass barriers had almost no effect. The experimentally measured air speeds at nine anemometer locations generally matched the simulated airflow velocities, and a fog-purge visualization test was also consistent with simulated results of plume movement and dissipation. The visualization tests demonstrated improvements in air change rate with the modified return, which promoted through-flow conditions, versus the original well-mixed ventilation configuration. The results of this study demonstrate that minor modifications to a space that promote through-flow conditions can improve air quality and reduce pathogen concentrations. Additional airflow modeling and testing of alternative occupied space configurations are recommended to further inform room designs that mitigate airborne exposure risks for occupants.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

YAP1 Dysfunction Promotes Molecular Properties Linked to Breast Cancer Susceptibility

YAP1 is a cotranscription factor that promotes malignant and stem cell properties in cancer. We previously found that YAP1 dysregulation is associated with aging in human mammary epithelia. With increased age, YAP1 expression changes in luminal epithelial cells, the prospective breast cancer cell of origin. Because age is a significant risk factor for breast cancer, we tested whether YAP1 dysregulation acted early in cancer progression by conferring cellular states associated with increased cancer susceptibility. In this study, we find that with increased age and genetic risk for developing cancer, human breast tissues showed significantly increased YAP1 expression, and cultured primary human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) showed significantly increased expression of both YAP1 and its transcriptional targets. Increased YAP1 expression in cultured HMEC induced gene expression changes associated with increased cancer susceptibility, such as genes associated with stem cell states, increased telomerase activity, breast cancer progression, and increased age and genetic breast cancer risk. Furthermore, overexpression of YAP1 in post-stasis HMEC—finite lifespan cells that have bypassed a retinoblastoma-mediated senescence barrier—promoted properties related to increased growth potential. We found that YAP1 dysregulation in finite epithelial cells allows for access to gene programs and functions that are typically thought to be restricted to stem cells. We hypothesize that YAP1 acts early in breast cancer progression, long before the development of a tumor, to impose cancer-susceptible molecular states.

YAP1↗

DOE OSTI2023

User’s Manual for Seal_Flux: A Seal Barrier Reduced-Order Model (Update)

This report provides a brief description on the use of the Seal_Flux computer program developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). The Seal_Flux code simulates the flow of CO 2 through a low permeability rock horizon or seal formation overlying the storage reservoir into which CO 2 is injected. A two-phase, relative permeability approach with Darcy’s law is used for one-dimensional (1D) flow computations of CO 2 through the horizon in the vertical direction. The code also allows the simulation of time-dependent processes that can influence such flow. However, as part of its design, Seal_Flux is what can be termed a “reduced-order model” (ROM) and is not intended as a full-functioning flow code. The theory and simulation in the code is streamlined and directed towards the implementation of Monte Carlo risk analyses of CO 2 transport or as termed in this context as “leakage.” While presented in this report as a stand-alone tool, the Seal_Flux code is intended to function in the future as one of several models as part of an integrated, systems-level model of CO 2 storage performance. Finally, the code is written in Python 3.10 to provide an open framework for further development by others and to assist in linking the code with other modules in an integrated assessment model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Direct Air Capture Recovery of Energy for CCUS Partnership (DAC RECO 2 UP) Final Technical Report

The “Direct Air Capture Recovery of Energy for CCUS Partnership (DAC RECO 2 UP)” project employs a team approach and supports the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management’s (DOE-FECM) goal to decrease the cost of capture through the testing of existing direct air capture (DAC) materials in integrated field units that produce a concentrated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) stream of at least 95% purity. Solid-amine CO 2 adsorption-desorption contactor technology, proven in the laboratory, is undergoing high-fidelity design/validation. Recoverable energy is readily available from a large number of commercial locations where DAC can be deployed; therefore, advancing the fidelity of energy recovery to directly reduce the cost of DAC is a key project objective. In addition, many commercial facilities have low-concentration CO 2 vents that are uneconomical to treat alone but could provide more efficient mass and thermal transport to DAC systems with integrated energy recovery and flexible CO 2 treatment capabilities. Technology scale-up leverages past research and occurs in a commercially relevant environment at the National Carbon Capture Center. Prescreening techno-economic analysis, risk assessments, and life cycle analysis are being performed by experienced team members. Results of the project will address critical technical barriers that, when solved, will improve the capital and operating costs of DAC while validating commercial relevance of cost and product quality/need.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Fuel Cell Electric Bus Hydrogen Storage and Refueling Facility

It is necessary to understand the safety implications and risk mitigation options for fuel cell electric bus fleet deployment, especially for related facilities responsible for operations such as production, storage, compression, and dispensing of hydrogen for use by the buses. In this report, we present a quantitative risk assessment for a potential fuel cell electric bus fleet that was motivated by efforts to improve resilience at the Portland International Airport but can be applicable to a range of hydrogen case studies and use cases. We estimated risk for a facility that produces, stores, compresses, and dispenses hydrogen for the fleet of buses, with a focus on individual risk to people in terms of annual frequency of fatality. We considered the frequency of hydrogen leaks that could result in harmful physical outcomes like jet fires or explosions, and the consequences of those outcomes for people. We created customized fault trees to calculate the frequencies of different sizes of leaks and event sequence diagrams to calculate ignition probabilities for the various leak sizes. We also leveraged the HyRAM+ toolkit to use these inputs to calculate overall risk for the facility, which we separated into one section responsible for producing, storing, and compressing hydrogen, and one section responsible for dispensing the hydrogen to the buses. We found that the dispensing area seemed to have a higher risk than the production/storage/compression area of the facility, largely because of the inclusion of a component with a high leak frequency (the heat exchanger used to cool the hydrogen before entering the vehicle, to prevent overheating and expansion of hydrogen in the onboard tank). For the example production and refueling facility we evaluated and the data we used for the analysis, the leak frequency had a larger impact on the risk differences between the two sections on the facility, compared to the physical outcome consequence, which was slightly different due to the varying fuel conditions, but not substantially different. Actions can be taken to prevent these hazards (e.g., lowering leak frequencies in system components) or to mitigate the consequences if they do occur (e.g., installing barriers to protect people if ignition events occur). The choice of which actions to take depends not only on safety considerations but also on space, time, staffing, feasibility, and financial constraints. Therefore, the quantitative risk assessment approach can help understand relative risk contributions from different components, leak sizes, consequences, and human actions, to prioritize risk reduction strategies and balance these parameters. The outcomes of this report may be useful for a variety of stakeholders working in the hydrogen, transportation, vehicle, and aviation sector, including those responsible for aspects like facility design, operations, and regulations. There is not a single value of risk that determines whether a hypothetical system is “safe” or not. The insights about risk mitigations may be leveraged, and the quantitative risk assessment approach can be applied to other case studies to understand risk priorities and contributions specific to different FCEB and hydrogen facility uses.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Moisture Performance of Unvented Attics With Vapor Diffusion Ports and Buried Ducts in Hot, Humid Climates

Energy efficiency measures, such as cool roofs, radiant barriers, interior radiative control coatings, and buried ducts are increasing in popularity and are promoted by energy codes because of their energy-saving potential. However, these strategies can also pose moisture risks in attics by lowering surface temperatures and increasing condensation potential and moisture accumulation. Of particular concern in hot-humid climates is dripping condensation on cold air-conditioning ductwork in the summer - commonly referred to as duct "sweating" - which threatens the attic floor with conditions conducive to mold growth and rot. One strategy to mitigate these moisture issues is to wrap ductwork in thicker duct-wrap insulation with an integrated exterior vapor barrier, but thick duct wrap can be difficult to come by, expensive, and unwieldy to work with. This study explores an alternative strategy of reducing moisture issues while embracing energy efficiency by using unvented attics with vapor diffusion ports and buried ductwork in hot-humid climates. Vapor diffusion ports have been studied so far in a wide range of U.S. climates, mostly in the context of conditioned attics. In this study, the strategy is implemented in the novel context of hot-humid climates with ductwork sitting atop blown-in attic floor insulation in unconditioned attics. Using a combination of field experiments and hygrothermal modeling, the findings of this project indicate that an unvented attic with vapor diffusion ports and buried ducts may be a key part of a successful low-cost method for reducing the attic moisture load by venting excess moisture out of the attic, keeping duct-jacket surfaces above dew point temperature, and keeping the roof deck safe from winter moisture accumulation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

12.5 kV GaN Super-Heterojunction Schottky Barrier Diodes

In this work, we report GaN super-heterojunction Schottky barrier diodes (SHJ-SBDs) with substantially improved performance. Metal-2DEG sidewall n-ohmic contacts were deployed to achieve low contact resistance of 0.75 Ω · mm, avoiding the risk of abnormally high contact resistance caused by inaccurate etch depth control. A pGaN notch formed near the cathode successfully eliminated excessive hole conduction caused by the sidewall n-ohmic contact. Isolation was improved by a high-energy Al implantation step. The resulting SHJ-SBD exhibited a breakdown voltage (BV) of 12.5 kV and a specific ON-resistance of 100.8 mΩ · cm 2 .

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enabling Digital Image Correlation for Deployment in the Hot Fuels Examination Facility

Digital image correlation (DIC) is a non-contact image-based technique for displacement and strain measurement. It is also a full-field method that can provide excellent spatial resolution. DIC has been widely used for measurements in many styles of mechanical tests and is desirable in part because of this flexibility to measure nearly any material across a range of time and length scales. Its ability to measure localized strain for tests and in environments not accessible to other strain measurement techniques makes it an ideal option for several mechanical test cases that exist in hot cell facilities such as the Hot Fuel Examination Facility (HFEF) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). However, DIC has not been demonstrated at HFEF, and several barriers to implementation in the hot cell environment exist. This report outlines the possible paths for deploying DIC at HFEF, weighing the technical advantages and risks with each path. It also discusses the steps which must be taken to add this capability to the suite of post-irradiation examination (PIE) techniques available at HFEF. Finally, it concludes with recommendations for the best method to perform DIC at the facility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade

Abstract International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios’ plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.

Ribeiro, Joana (ORCID:0000000237555785)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Regional-scale fault-to-structure earthquake simulations with the EQSIM framework: Workflow maturation and computational performance on GPU-accelerated exascale platforms

Continuous advancements in scientific and engineering understanding of earthquake phenomena, combined with the associated development of representative physics-based models, is providing a foundation for high-performance, fault-to-structure earthquake simulations. However, regional-scale applications of high-performance models have been challenged by the computational requirements at the resolutions required for engineering risk assessments. The EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework, a software application development under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project, is focused on overcoming the existing computational barriers and enabling routine regional-scale simulations at resolutions relevant to a breadth of engineered systems. This multidisciplinary software development—drawing upon expertise in geophysics, engineering, applied math and computer science—is preparing the advanced computational workflow necessary to fully exploit the DOE’s exaflop computer platforms coming online in the 2023 to 2024 timeframe. Achievement of the computational performance required for high-resolution regional models containing upward of hundreds of billions to trillions of model grid points requires numerical efficiency in every phase of a regional simulation. This includes run time start-up and regional model generation, effective distribution of the computational workload across thousands of computer nodes, efficient coupling of regional geophysics and local engineering models, and application-tailored highly efficient transfer, storage, and interrogation of very large volumes of simulation data. This article summarizes the most recent advancements and refinements incorporated in the workflow design for the EQSIM integrated fault-to-structure framework, which are based on extensive numerical testing across multiple graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated platforms, and demonstrates the computational performance achieved on the world’s first exaflop computer platform through representative regional-scale earthquake simulations for the San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of data-driven neural network-based machine learning (ML) algorithms has grown significantly and spurred research in its applicability to instrumentation and control systems. While they are promising in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of such algorithms is not adequately assessed. Failures of ML-integrated systems are poorly understood; the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness of these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology, trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier to adoption and will play a vital role in intelligent systems' safe and accountable operation. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a real-time model-agnostic method to evaluate the relative reliability of ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but significantly degrade at extrapolation. This occurs when new samples are "far" from training samples. The method, referred to as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets, which is used to calculate a prediction's relative reliability. LADDR is demonstrated on a feedforward neural network-based model used to predict safety significant factors during different loss-of-flow transients. LADDR is intended as a "data supervisor" and determines the appropriateness of well-trained ML models in the context of operational conditions. Ultimately, LADDR illustrates how training data can be used as evidence to support the trustworthiness of ML predictions when utilized for conventional interpolation tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pumped Storage Hydropower FAST Commissioning Technical Analysis

This report was developed in tandem with the Furthering Advancements to Shorten Time (FAST) to Commissioning PSH Challenge and represents the underlying technical analysis that informed the competition. Lead by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the report is designed to address barriers and solutions to PSH development by establishing baseline project development knowledge, defining key aspects of project development, and identifying opportunities to reduce project timelines, costs, and risks. The document’s scope includes post-licensing activities and excludes factors related to permitting or licensing.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI Benchmark Democratization and Carpentry

Benchmarks are a cornerstone of modern machine learning, enabling reproducibility, comparison, and scientific progress. However, AI benchmarks are increasingly complex, requiring dynamic, AI-focused workflows. Rapid evolution in model architectures, scale, datasets, and deployment contexts makes evaluation a moving target. Large language models often memorize static benchmarks, causing a gap between benchmark results and real-world performance. Beyond traditional static benchmarks, continuous adaptive benchmarking frameworks are needed to align scientific assessment with deployment risks. This calls for skills and education in AI Benchmark Carpentry. From our experience with MLCommons, educational initiatives, and programs like the DOE's Trillion Parameter Consortium, key barriers include high resource demands, limited access to specialized hardware, lack of benchmark design expertise, and uncertainty in relating results to application domains. Current benchmarks often emphasize peak performance on top-tier hardware, offering limited guidance for diverse, real-world scenarios. Benchmarking must become dynamic, incorporating evolving models, updated data, and heterogeneous platforms while maintaining transparency, reproducibility, and interpretability. Democratization requires both technical innovation and systematic education across levels, building sustained expertise in benchmark design and use. Benchmarks should support application-relevant comparisons, enabling informed, context-sensitive decisions. Dynamic, inclusive benchmarking will ensure evaluation keeps pace with AI evolution and supports responsible, reproducible, and accessible AI deployment. Community efforts can provide a foundation for AI Benchmark Carpentry.

von Laszewski, Gregor [Virginia U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sustainable Critical Minerals: Mining, Production, and Legacy

Critical minerals (CMs) are required in renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, electronics, and national defense. Global demand has increased rapidly due to energy and digital transitions, and the United States has become increasingly reliant on vulnerable supply chains. Geological scarcity, trade barriers, environmental hurdles, and processing challenges impede domestic CM production growth. Emerging strategies, including circular economy practices and advanced sustainable mining and processing techniques, can mitigate supply chain and economic risks. To advance these approaches, consistent research priorities, policy revisions, and technology investments are required to develop a resilient CM supply. Doing so with a focus on sustainability goals can simultaneously advance domestic economic and technological goals while limiting environmental impacts and supporting global environmental goals.

biomining↗