Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Bayesian Robustness”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The dark matter halo masses of elliptical galaxies as a function of observationally robust quantities

Context. The assembly history of the stellar component of a massive elliptical galaxy is closely related to that of its dark matter halo. Measuring how the properties of galaxies correlate with their halo mass can therefore help to understand their evolution. Aims. We investigate how the dark matter halo mass of elliptical galaxies varies as a function of their properties, using weak gravitational lensing observations. To minimise the chances of biases, we focus on the following galaxy properties that can be determined robustly: the surface brightness profile and the colour. Methods. We selected 2409 central massive elliptical galaxies (log M*/M ⊙ ≳ 11.4) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopic sample. We first measured their surface brightness profile and colours by fitting Sérsic models to photometric data from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS). We fitted their halo mass distribution as a function of redshift, rest-frame r-band luminosity, half-light radius, and rest-frame u - g colour, using KiDS weak lensing measurements and a Bayesian hierarchical approach. For the sake of robustness with respect to assumptions on the large-radii behaviour of the surface brightness, we repeated the analysis replacing the total luminosity and half-light radius with the luminosity within a 10 kpc aperture, L r, 10 , and the light-weighted surface brightness slope, Γ 10 . Results. We did not detect any correlation between the halo mass and either the half-light radius or colour at fixed redshift and luminosity. Using the robust surface brightness parameterisation, we found that the halo mass correlates weakly with L r,10 and anti-correlates with Γ 10 . At fixed redshift, L r, 10 and Γ 10 , the difference in the average halo mass between galaxies at the 84th percentile and 16th percentile of the colour distribution is 0.00 ± 0.11 dex. Conclusion. Our results indicate that the average star formation efficiency of massive elliptical galaxies has little dependence on their final size or colour. This suggests that the origin of the diversity in the size and colour distribution of these objects lies with properties other than the halo mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian State-Space Modeling Framework for Understanding and Predicting Golden Eagle Movements Using Telemetry Data

Predicting raptor movements through a wind power plant under given atmospheric and topographical conditions is a crucial first step in the overall goal of quantifying the risk of turbine-related collisions and mortalities. Extracting behavioral traits of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from telemetry data requires the fusion of noisy and sparse movement data (location, heading, velocity) with a stochastic mathematical representation of the eagles' decision-making processes. In this study, we framed this problem in a Bayesian state-space framework where both observations and decision-making are assumed to be stochastic processes connected through hidden states (mode of flight, intent), and the unknown model parameters are assumed to be random variables that are calibrated using the available telemetry data. This framework allowed for rigorous consideration of underlying uncertainties while allowing for both data and prior biological knowledge to contribute to a probabilistic and predictive agent-based movement model. We implemented and applied the Bayesian framework to understand movement behavior of 23 GPS-tagged golden eagles travelling in the western US for years 2019 and 2020. Our preliminary findings show that the Bayesian state-space framework provides a robust inverse modeling apparatus to decode eagle behavioral characteristics from telemetry data. This study was primarily aimed at verifying and validating the framework with selected golden eagle tracks (both long- and short-ranged), with future research aimed at extending the framework to include multi-mode flight, consideration of atmospheric data and uplift mechanisms, eagle-to-eagle interaction, and eagle-to-turbine interaction.

Bayesian modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interpreting High-resolution Spectroscopy of Exoplanets using Cross-correlations and Supervised Machine Learning

We present a new method for performing atmospheric retrieval on ground-based, high-resolution data of exoplanets. Our method combines cross-correlation functions with a random forest, a supervised machine-learning technique, to overcome challenges associated with high-resolution data. A series of cross-correlation functions are concatenated to give a “CCF-sequence” for each model atmosphere, which reduces the dimensionality by a factor of ∼100. The random forest, trained on our grid of ∼65,000 models, provides a likelihood-free method of retrieval. The precomputed grid spans 31 values of both temperature and metallicity, and incorporates a realistic noise model. We apply our method to HARPS-N observations of the ultra-hot Jupiter KELT-9b and obtain a metallicity consistent with solar (logM = − 0.2 ± 0.2). Our retrieved transit chord temperature (T=6000{sub −200}{sup +0}K) is unreliable as strong ion lines lie outside of the extent of the training set, which we interpret as being indicative of missing physics in our atmospheric model. We compare our method to traditional nested sampling, as well as other machine-learning techniques, such as Bayesian neural networks. We demonstrate that the likelihood-free aspect of the random forest makes it more robust than nested sampling to different error distributions, and that the Bayesian neural network we tested is unable to reproduce complex posteriors. We also address the claim in Cobb et al. 2019 that our random forest retrieval technique can be overconfident but incorrect. We show that this is an artifact of the training set, rather than of the machine-learning method, and that the posteriors agree with those obtained using nested sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SPEQTACLE: An automated generalized fuzzy C-means algorithm for tumor delineation in PET

Purpose: Accurate tumor delineation in positron emission tomography (PET) images is crucial in oncology. Although recent methods achieved good results, there is still room for improvement regarding tumors with complex shapes, low signal-to-noise ratio, and high levels of uptake heterogeneity. Methods: The authors developed and evaluated an original clustering-based method called spatial positron emission quantification of tumor—Automatic Lp-norm estimation (SPEQTACLE), based on the fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithm with a generalization exploiting a Hilbertian norm to more accurately account for the fuzzy and non-Gaussian distributions of PET images. An automatic and reproducible estimation scheme of the norm on an image-by-image basis was developed. Robustness was assessed by studying the consistency of results obtained on multiple acquisitions of the NEMA phantom on three different scanners with varying acquisition parameters. Accuracy was evaluated using classification errors (CEs) on simulated and clinical images. SPEQTACLE was compared to another FCM implementation, fuzzy local information C-means (FLICM) and fuzzy locally adaptive Bayesian (FLAB). Results: SPEQTACLE demonstrated a level of robustness similar to FLAB (variability of 14% ± 9% vs 14% ± 7%, p = 0.15) and higher than FLICM (45% ± 18%, p < 0.0001), and improved accuracy with lower CE (14% ± 11%) over both FLICM (29% ± 29%) and FLAB (22% ± 20%) on simulated images. Improvement was significant for the more challenging cases with CE of 17% ± 11% for SPEQTACLE vs 28% ± 22% for FLAB (p = 0.009) and 40% ± 35% for FLICM (p < 0.0001). For the clinical cases, SPEQTACLE outperformed FLAB and FLICM (15% ± 6% vs 37% ± 14% and 30% ± 17%, p < 0.004). Conclusions: SPEQTACLE benefitted from the fully automatic estimation of the norm on a case-by-case basis. This promising approach will be extended to multimodal images and multiclass estimation in future developments.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum-Inspired Bayesian Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

With increasing simulation and measurement data, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely used in computational decision-making of complex engineering systems. The resulting tools, such as uncertainty quantification solvers, reinforcement learning, and physics-informed machine learning, have achieved great success in critical DOE tasks such as material discovery and design, energy system modeling and control, and numerical weather and climate prediction. A core topic in scientific machine learning and artificial intelligence is Bayesian inference: given an observed data set, people want to estimate the posterior distribution of a (possibly large) number of hidden parameters. Due to the flexibility and weak assumptions, Bayesian sampling has been the mainstream Bayesian inference solvers despite the rapid progress of approximate Bayesian inference. Classical Bayesian sampling methods such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo suffer from a low-acceptance rate due to the random walk nature, therefore state-of-the-art techniques use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants to efficiently draw posterior samples in a high dimension. The key idea of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants is to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics of a classical particle with a fixed mass, and their performance significantly degrades when the posterior distribution is highly spiky or has multiple modes. Leveraging the idea of quantum physics, this project has investigated new theory, algorithms and applications of Bayesian inference (especially Bayesian sampling). The main results include: (1) novel quantum-inspired Bayesian sampling methods that can lead to better accuracy for challenging multi-modal or spiky distributions, (2) more scalable machine learning framework leveraging tensor-compressed Bayesian inference, and (3) Bayesian and sampling approaches for verifying the robustness of continuous and binary neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Robust Estimate of Continental-Scale Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Using GOSAT XCO 2 Retrievals

Satellite XCO 2 retrievals could improve the estimates of surface carbon fluxes, but it remains unknown on what scales these estimates are robust. Here, we use the time-dependent Bayesian synthesis top-down method and prior net ecosystem exchanges (NEEs) from 12 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) to infer the monthly carbon fluxes of 51 land regions with constraints by GOSAT XCO 2 retrievals. We find that the uncertainty (standard deviation of 12 TBMs) reduction rates (uncertainty reduction rate (URR)) decrease significantly at decreasing spatial scales. On the continental-scale, the mean URR is about 57%, and the annual and seasonal cycle estimates of NEE are rather robust. The evaluation shows that the posterior CO 2 concentrations are significantly improved at the continental scale. Our study suggests that the GOSAT XCO 2 can only promise a robust continental-scale NEE estimate and improving the XCO 2 accuracy is an effective way to achieve robust estimates on smaller scales under current spatial coverage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling the Formation of the Family of the Dwarf Planet Haumea

The dwarf planet (136108) Haumea has an intriguing combination of unique physical properties: near-breakup spin, two regular satellites, and an unexpectedly compact family. While these properties point toward formation by a collision, there is no self-consistent and reasonably probable formation hypothesis that can connect the unusually rapid spin and low relative velocities of Haumea family members (“Haumeans”). We explore and test the proposed formation hypotheses (catastrophic collision, graze-and-merge, and satellite collision) in detail. We flexibly parameterize the properties of the collision (e.g., the collision location) and use simple models for the unique three-dimensional velocity ejection field expected from each model to generate simulated families. These are then compared to the observed Kuiper Belt objects using Bayesian parameter inference, including a mixture model that robustly allows for interlopers from the background population. After testing our methodology, we find that the best match to the observed Haumeans is an essentially isotropic ejection field with a typical velocity of 150 m s{sup −1}. The graze-and-merge formation hypothesis—in which Haumeans are shed due to excess angular momentum—is clearly disfavored because the observed Haumeans are not oriented in a plane. The satellite collision model is also disfavored. Including these new constraints, we present a detailed discussion of the formation hypotheses, including variations, some of which are tested. Some new hypotheses are proposed (a cratering collision and a collision where Haumea’s upper layers are “missing”) and scrutinized. We do not identify a satisfactory formation hypothesis, but we do propose several avenues of additional investigation. In the process of these analyses, we identify many new candidate Haumeans and dynamically confirm seven of them as consistent with the observed family. We also confirm that Haumeans have a shallow size distribution and discuss implications for the discovery and identification of new Haumeans.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Artificial Intelligence Thermostat to Detect Faults

Residential air conditioners and heat pumps often experience faults due to inadequate maintenance, which can severely reduce efficiency or even cause system failure. Common issues include dirty or clogged air filters and refrigerant leaks. These problems degrade performance and increase energy use and operating costs. This study presents a smart thermostat with embedded artificial intelligence to detect such faults and alert homeowners when maintenance is needed. The thermostat uses low-cost measurements—including return-air temperature, relative humidity, supply-air temperature, outdoor-air temperature, and condenser subcooling—to identify abnormal operations. Because different faults produce distinct response patterns, tailored algorithms are developed to recognize characteristic fault signatures. The investigation is built on a detailed co-simulation platform that couples EnergyPlus with the DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). EnergyPlus represents the building’s dynamic environment, while HPDM is a high-fidelity, hardware-based model that can simulate fault-free performance as well as a wide range of faults, including gradual degradation such as minor refrigerant leakage. This platform provides a virtual training and testing environment that helps distinguish fault-induced behavior from normal operation and supports development of robust diagnostic algorithms. Using this framework, a Dynamic Bayesian Network was developed to identify two common faults—gradual refrigerant charge loss and indoor airflow blockage—and the AI-embedded thermostat was verified through annual building simulations.

Shen, Bo [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000336600393)↗
DOE OSTI2022

BayesMT: A Probabilistic Bayesian Framework for the Seismic Moment Tensor

Moment tensors (MTs) have long been used in earthquake and explosion source analysis, and there has been a renewed interest in how they can inform us about the seismic source, particularly in the geophysical monitoring community due to its application in event identification and yield analysis. However, parameter uncertainties in seismic MT inversion are rarely available. The inverse procedure often does not quantify MT model errors such as event location, data noise and Earth model that are essential for estimating solution robustness. To address this need, we propose to adopt the Bayesian probabilistic framework to incorporate uncertainties in MT inversions. In this study, we present the theoretical background of a probabilistic Bayesian framework for MT inversion accounting for model and measurements errors and illustrate the implementation of the method using a synthetic example.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning for physics-based models

This paper addresses the issue of overfitting while calibrating unknown parameters of over-parameterized physics-based models with noisy and incomplete observations. Here, a semi-analytical Bayesian framework of nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) is proposed to identify sparsity among model parameters during Bayesian inversion. NSBL offers significant advantages over machine learning algorithm of sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) for physics-based models, such as 1) the likelihood function or the posterior parameter distribution is not required to be Gaussian, and 2) prior parameter knowledge is incorporated into sparse learning (i.e. not all parameters are treated as questionable). NSBL employs the concept of automatic relevance determination (ARD) to facilitate sparsity among questionable parameters through parameterized prior distributions. The analytical tractability of NSBL is enabled by employing Gaussian ARD priors and by building a Gaussian mixture-model approximation of the posterior parameter distribution that excludes the contribution of ARD priors. Subsequently, type-II maximum likelihood is executed using Newton's method whereby the evidence and its gradient and Hessian information are computed in a semi-analytical fashion. We show numerically and analytically that SBL is a special case of NSBL for linear regression models. Subsequently, a linear regression example involving multimodality in both parameter posterior pdf and model evidence is considered to demonstrate the performance of NSBL in cases where SBL is inapplicable. Next, NSBL is applied to identify sparsity among the damping coefficients of a mass-spring-damper model of a shear building frame. These numerical studies demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of NSBL in alleviating overfitting during Bayesian inversion of nonlinear physics-based models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data driven drift correction for complex optical systems

To exploit the thousand-fold increase in spectral brightness of modern light sources, increasingly intricate experiments are being conducted that demand extremely precise beam trajectory. Maintaining the optimal trajectory over several hours of an experiment with the needed precision necessitates active drift control. Here, we outline time varying Bayesian optimization (TVBO) as a data driven approach for robust drift correction, and illustrate its application for a split and delay optical system composed of six crystals and twelve input dimensions. Using numerical simulations, we exhibit the application of TVBO for linear drift, non-smooth temporal drift as well as constrained TVBO for multi-objective control settings, representing real-life operating conditions. This approach can be easily adapted to other X-ray beam conditioning and guidance systems, including multi-crystal monochromators and grazing-incidence mirrors, to maintain sub-micrometer and nanoradian beam stability over the course of an experiment spanning several hours.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

ROSE: A reduced-order scattering emulator for optical models

A new generation of phenomenological optical potentials requires robust calibration and uncertainty quantification, motivating the use of Bayesian statistical methods. These Bayesian methods usually require calculating observables for thousands or even millions of parameter sets, making fast and accurate emulators highly desirable or even essential. Emulating scattering across different energies or with interactions such as optical potentials is challenging because of the nonaffine parameter dependence, meaning the parameters do not all factorize from individual operators. Here we introduce and demonstrate the reduced-order scattering emulator ( ROSE ) framework, a reduced basis emulator that can handle nonaffine problems. ROSE is fully extensible and works within the publicly available band framework software suite for calibration, model mixing, and experimental design. As a demonstration problem, we use ROSE to calibrate a realistic nucleon-target scattering model through the calculation of elastic cross sections. This problem shows the practical value of the ROSE framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification with controlled trade-offs between emulator speed and accuracy as compared to high-fidelity solvers. Finally, planned extensions of ROSE are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of $\nu_\mu$ CC Interactions With Two-Proton Final State in MINERvA

This dissertation presents a measurement of charged–current (CC) muon–neutrino interactions with exactly two protons and no pions in the final state (CC~$2p\,0\pi$), using data collected by the MINERvA detector in the NuMI medium–energy beam at Fermilab. Such two–proton topologies are a sensitive probe of nuclear dynamics in the few–GeV regime, including multi–nucleon correlations (npnh, notably $2p2h$) and intranuclear final–state interactions (FSI) such as pion absorption and nucleon rescattering. A precise experimental characterization of these processes is essential both for neutrino–interaction theory and for reducing systematic uncertainties in oscillation experiments that rely on accurate modeling of neutrino–nucleus interactions. Events are selected by requiring a $\nu_\mu$ CC interaction with a reconstructed $\mu^-$ and two proton tracks originating from a common vertex in MINERvA’s finely segmented scintillator tracker, with no reconstructed mesons. Muon charge and momentum are constrained by matching to the MINOS Near Detector, while proton identification exploits energy–loss profiles and stopping–proton features. Backgrounds from pion–producing channels that enter the signal region through FSI or reconstruction effects are constrained with data–driven sidebands (Michel–electron and isolated–cluster “blob” samples) and tuned via a simultaneous fit across signal and sideband regions. To correct detector resolution and acceptance effects, the analysis employs iterative Bayesian unfolding with extensive validation: statistical pseudo–experiments, and robustness checks against generator systematic “universes” and additional strong shape warps. Single–differential cross sections are reported for three observables tailored to the two–proton final state: the opening–angle cosine $\cos\!\left(\theta_{pp}\right)$, the leading–proton momentum, and the subleading–proton momentum. Systematic uncertainties include contributions from neutrino flux, interaction modeling (e.g., npnh and resonance parameters, pion FSI), and detector response (calibration, reconstruction efficiencies). The resulting distributions provide targeted constraints on the interplay of multi–nucleon dynamics and FSI that shape CC~$2p\,0\pi$ final states on hydrocarbon. Comparisons to modern GENIE–based simulations highlight kinematic regions where model components require refinement. These measurements thus inform generator tuning and improve the reliability of neutrino–energy reconstruction strategies for current and future long–baseline oscillation programs.

Syrotenko, Vladyslav S. [Tufts U.]↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sparse Bayesian mass mapping with uncertainties: peak statistics and feature locations

ABSTRACT Weak lensing convergence maps – upon which higher order statistics can be calculated – can be recovered from observations of the shear field by solving the lensing inverse problem. For typical surveys this inverse problem is ill-posed (often seriously) leading to substantial uncertainty on the recovered convergence maps. In this paper we propose novel methods for quantifying the Bayesian uncertainty in the location of recovered features and the uncertainty in the cumulative peak statistic – the peak count as a function of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). We adopt the sparse hierarchical Bayesian mass-mapping framework developed in previous work, which provides robust reconstructions and principled statistical interpretation of reconstructed convergence maps without the need to assume or impose Gaussianity. We demonstrate our uncertainty quantification techniques on both Bolshoi N-body (cluster scale) and Buzzard V-1.6 (large-scale structure) N-body simulations. For the first time, this methodology allows one to recover approximate Bayesian upper and lower limits on the cumulative peak statistic at well-defined confidence levels.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Aluminum Scandium Nitride Molecular Dynamics Force Fields with Scalable Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization

Scandium (Sc)-doped aluminum nitride (AlN) exhibits improved piezoelectric properties, which is favorable for sensor applications. Although many experimental studies exist to fine tune the material properties for design purposes, an atomistic level understanding of the structure-property (S-P) relationships is needed, which is the aim of this work. Molecular dynamics can be used to understand the S-P relationships. However, the limited availability of suitable force fields has been a major challenge for accurate property predictions. In this article, a robust force field calibration method using a scalable multi-objective Bayesian optimization approach is presented. Optimizations with three, six, and eight objectives are applied to calibrate aluminum scandium nitride force fields based on the piezoelectric characteristics, modulus of elasticity, and lattice parameters at different Sc-doped levels. Furthermore, the performances of the different force fields are compared, and the performance of the higher dimensional objective problems is discussed. The highly scalable molecular dynamics force field development method is successfully implemented, resulting in the creation of several aluminum scandium nitride molecular dynamics force fields for piezoelectric applications at varying Sc dope levels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

A fully Bayesian method for jointly fitting instrumental calibration and X-ray spectral models

Owing to a lack of robust principled methods, systematic instrumental uncertainties have generally been ignored in astrophysical data analysis despite wide recognition of the importance of including them. Ignoring calibration uncertainty can cause bias in the estimation of source model parameters and can lead to underestimation of the variance of these estimates. We previously introduced a pragmatic Bayesian method to address this problem. The method is 'pragmatic' in that it introduced an ad hoc technique that simplified computation by neglecting the potential information in the data for narrowing the uncertainty for the calibration product. Following that work, we use a principal component analysis to efficiently represent the uncertainty of the effective area of an X-ray (or γ-ray) telescope. Here, however, we leverage this representation to enable a principled, fully Bayesian method that coherently accounts for the calibration uncertainty in high-energy spectral analysis. In this setting, the method is compared with standard analysis techniques and the pragmatic Bayesian method. The advantage of the fully Bayesian method is that it allows the data to provide information not only for estimation of the source parameters but also for the calibration product—here the effective area, conditional on the adopted spectral model. In this way, it can yield more accurate and efficient estimates of the source parameters along with valid estimates of their uncertainty. Provided that the source spectrum can be accurately described by a parameterized model, this method allows rigorous inference about the effective area by quantifying which possible curves are most consistent with the data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗