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DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying uncertainty in physics-based predictions of rare-isotope production cross sections via Bayesian-inspired model averaging across nuclear mass tables

Accurate prediction of fragmentation cross sections is essential for rare-isotope beam production, planning new-isotope searches, and designing experiments to study the most exotic regions of the nuclear chart. However, existing reaction models and phenomenological cross-section parametrizations often exhibit significant deviations over broad regions of mass and charge. In this work, a Bayesian-inspired model-averaging framework is developed to combine abrasion-ablation (AA) calculations based on multiple nuclear mass tables into a single statistically weighted estimate. For the calibrated systems, the model weights are assigned empirically according to the relative quality of fit to measured cross sections, thereby reducing systematic model bias while preserving the underlying physics content of the AA description. The weights are constrained using proton-rich fragmentation data for the 78 Kr and 124 Xe projectiles. The resulting parameter trends are then propagated to the 92 Mo and 144 Sm systems through a controlled scaling procedure. In the present implementation, the excitation-energy prescription is fixed, while the averaging is performed across nuclear-mass inputs; the framework provides both weighted cross sections and associated uncertainty estimates. Applied to proton-rich fragmentation, the present approach provides a practical basis for interpolation and limited extrapolation in regions relevant to rare-isotope production. The resulting predictions are used to assess the production of very proton-rich nuclei, and candidate new isotopes are discussed.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris‐Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris-Flow Inundation

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian discovery of optimal reduced order models from mechanistic and experimental data: A case study of Pd penetration in TRISO fuels using BISON

TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particles rely on a silicon carbide (SiC) layer as the primary structural material and barrier to metallic fission products (FPs) release. Accurate prediction of palladium (Pd) transport and penetration is therefore critical for qualifying TRISO fuels for advanced reactors. The empirical correlation for Pd penetration in BISON is derived from historical particle-fuel data, but cannot explain the large scatter in the experimental data that arises from varying experimental conditions. To aid fuel qualification, we previously developed a mechanistic reduced order model (ROM) using BISON that resolves these dependencies. Here, in this work we build on that mechanistic ROM and perform validation and quantify its uncertainty using Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ). calibration against a suite of in-pile and out-of-pile experiments spanning particle compositions, geometries, and operating conditions, and we benchmark it against the empirical correlation. Bayesian UQ identifies influential parameters, calibrates them to data, and yields predictive intervals. Results show that while the empirical correlation can be tuned to fit a single experiment type, it transfers poorly; the mechanistic ROM sustains accuracy with credible uncertainty across disparate conditions. This demonstrates a practical path—via Bayesian UQ applied to mechanistic ROMs—to leverage single-effect experiments for inferring in-reactor behavior and supporting TRISO fuel qualification.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal sizing of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response using a degradation-aware Bayesian Optimization-Mixed-Integer Linear Programming framework

The increasing integration of renewable energy and rising electricity demand highlight the importance of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response. Unlike prior approaches that overlook operational impacts on degradation, this study proposes a Bayesian Optimization–Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for optimal battery energy storage system sizing. In this framework, Mixed Integer Linear Programming determines short-term scheduling while a calibrated electrochemical model iteratively evaluates degradation. The central hypothesis is that the framework can efficiently identify optimal sizes that yield realistic and economically robust outcomes. The method is tested across three scenarios: peak shaving, peak shaving with energy-reduction demand response, and peak shaving with power-reduction demand response. Results show that the framework converge to the optimum within 20 iterations out of 150 possible sizes. Under baseline conditions, the framework consistently selects the smallest feasible system, minimizing unnecessary degradation costs from oversized storage. Sensitivity analyses reveal that larger systems are favored as demand rates or incentives increase. Comparisons of demand response programs indicate that power-reduction demand response offers greater economic benefits than energy-reduction demand response, although demand savings from peak shaving remain the dominant contributor to overall performance. This study demonstrates that the proposed framework balances computational tractability with degradation fidelity, identifies critical economic thresholds for investment, and offers a practical, flexible tool to guide industrial stakeholders in cost-effective battery energy storage system deployment.

Batteries↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analytical gradient-based optimization of CALPHAD model parameters

The calibration of CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) models involves the solution of a very challenging high-dimensional multiobjective optimization problem. Traditional approaches to parameter fitting predominantly rely on gradient-free methods, which while robust, are computationally inefficient and often scale poorly with model complexity. In this work, we introduce and demonstrate a generalizable framework for analytic gradient-based optimization of the parameters of the CALPHAD model enabled by the recently formalized Jansson derivative technique. This method allows for efficient evaluation of gradients of thermodynamic properties at equilibrium with respect to model parameters, even in the presence of arbitrarily complex internal degrees of freedom. Leveraging these semi-analytic gradients, we employ the conjugate gradient (CG) method to optimize thermodynamic model parameters for four binary alloy systems: Cu-Mg, Fe-Ni, Cr-Ni, and Cr-Fe. Across all systems, CG achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to Bayesian ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with improvements in computational efficiency ranging from one to three orders of magnitude. Furthermore, our results establish a new paradigm for CALPHAD assessments in which high fidelity data-rich model calibration becomes tractable using deterministic gradient-informed algorithms.

CALPHAD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model emulation and closure tests for (3+1)D relativistic heavy-ion collisions

In nuclear and particle physics, reconciling sophisticated simulations with experimental data is vital for understanding complex systems like the Quark Gluon Plasma (QGP) generated in heavy ion collisions. However, computational demands pose challenges, motivating using Gaussian Process emulators for efficient parameter extraction via Bayesian calibration. We conduct a comparative analysis of Gaussian Process emulators in heavy-ion physics to identify the most adept emulator for parameter extraction with minimal uncertainty. Furthermore, our study contributes to advancing computational techniques in heavy-ion physics, enhancing our ability to interpret experimental data and understand QGP properties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: optimized $w$CDM simulation-based inference with weak lensing map-level hybrid statistics

We present cosmological constraints from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing data using hierarchical hybrid statistics within a Bayesian simulation-based inference framework that is based on the Gower Street simulations. To maximize the precision of the inference, we have developed a new, information-theory based, data compression of the weak lensing maps to just seven highly informative summary statistics. The hybrid scheme exploits the high information content of the power spectrum, compressing both the power spectrum and neural-based summaries that are designed to extract further information. Our simulation-based approach enables principled forward modelling of all major sources of systematic uncertainty and survey properties into realistic mock observations, including the survey mask, photometric redshift uncertainties, intrinsic galaxy alignments, multiplicative shear calibration bias, source galaxy clustering, non-Gaussian shape noise, and non-linear structure formation. The summary statistics are then used in a Bayesian simulation-based inference pipeline. The inference is validated through coverage tests and checks for robustness against baryonic feedback. Assuming a $w$CDM cosmology, our analysis yields $S_8 = 0.808 \pm 0.017$, $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.325 \pm 0.024$, and $w < -0.766$ (marginalized posterior 68 per cent credible intervals). This rigorous combination of information theory, physics- and neural network-based extreme data compression, and principled Bayesian analysis improves the figure of merit for $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ by 60 per cent over the previous state-of-the-art, and by almost a factor of 3 over two-point analyses of the same data. They are the most precise joint constraints on $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ from weak gravitational lensing data alone of any survey to date. We intend to apply this analysis to the more recent DES Y6 data.

Williamson, J. [University Coll. London]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-scale Simulation, Calibration, and Optimization of Calcium Carbonate Precipitation in Microbial Communities

Ensuring the efficient engineering of microbially induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) is crucial for a variety of environmental and civil engineering applications, such as soil stabilization and carbon sequestration. Addressing this need, we present a comprehensive multi-scale workflow that begins with the isolation of calcium carbonate-producing microbes from soil samples, followed by metagenomic sequencing and metabolic reconstruction. We then characterize microbial growth phenotypes under diverse nutrient conditions, compare observed growth with metabolic model predictions, and apply the Consistent Reproduction of Phenotype (CROP) algorithm to refine these models. Furthermore, we analyze metabolite consumption and production, and develop a consumer-resource model that is calibrated using time-series measurements of growth rates, pH levels, and calcium carbonate precipitation. The primary benefit of our approach lies in its ability to predict and control MICP outcomes, facilitated by a Bayesian methodology that incorporates priors on initial conditions and parameters. This allows us to compute posteriors by integrating experimental data, and to solve a risk optimization problem under uncertainty to identify nutrient conditions that maximize calcium carbonate production. In contrast to non-Bayesian methods, which fail to quantify uncertainty accurately, our approach provides a more reliable pathway to optimizing nutrient conditions, enhancing the likelihood of achieving desired MICP outcomes. This positions our method as a superior alternative in the quest to improve MICP through engineered microbial consortia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

mmbo (Multi-modal Bayesian Optimization) [SWR-25-119]

This package implements Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) based surrogate models for multi-modal data. These models are fit using a custom Variational Bayes procedure leveraging conjugate posteriors in the last layer of the network, offering more accurate predictions with better-calibrated uncertainty quantification than mean-field Variational Bayes.

Taylor, Ian [National Laboratory of the Rockies (N↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Active learning of a crystal plasticity flow rule from discrete dislocation dynamics simulations

Continuum-scale material deformation models, such as crystal plasticity (CP), can significantly enhance their predictive accuracy by incorporating input from lower-scale (i.e. mesoscale) models. The procedure to generate and extract the relevant information is however typically complex and ad hoc, involving decision and intervention by domain experts, leading to long development times. In this study, we develop a principled approach for calibration of continuum-scale models using lower scale information by representing a CP flow rule as a Gaussian process model. This representation allows for efficient parameter space exploration, guided by the uncertainty embedded in the model through a process known as Bayesian optimization (BO). We demonstrate a semi-autonomous BO loop which instantiates discrete dislocation dynamics simulations whose initial conditions are automatically chosen to optimize the uncertainty of a model CP flow rule. Our self-guided computational pipeline efficiently generated a dataset and corresponding model whose error, uncertainty, and physical feature sensitivities were validated with comparison to an independent dataset four times larger, demonstrating a valuable and efficient active learning implementation readily transferable to similar material systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Theoretical and methodological challenges in hierarchical Bayesian inference for model-form uncertainty

This report describes challenges associated with the hierarchical Bayesian approach to inform model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to a mathematical models’ governing equations to express uncertainty in form of the equations. To inform model-form uncertainties, hierarchical Bayesian inference is often employed. Here, the MFU parameters are distributed parametrically, and the hyperparameters of the parametric distribution are informed through Bayesian inference, with the aim of determining the MFU parameter distribution that best agrees with calibration data. In practice, however, we have found the hierarchical Bayesian approach falls short of this aim. We discuss theoretical and methodological challenges of the approach, and we present several numerical demonstrations of these challenges. To conclude, we suggest promising alternative approaches for future investigation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using an ontology-based framework

This study presents a methodology for automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using semantic modeling and Bayesian estimation. Semantic modeling techniques are used to represent the system components and their interactions, facilitating the automatic generation of a simulation model from dynamic component models. The proposed approach is applied to a case study of a ventilation system where a simulation model is generated, calibrated, and assessed through different performance metrics. These metrics demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of both model point estimates and probabilistic prediction intervals across all model outputs. Overall, the proposed methodology offers a systematic and automated approach to model development and calibration in building energy systems, with potential applications in building performance analysis, monitoring, and optimization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep inference of simulated strong lenses in ground-based surveys

The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical power of such large samples will require further development of automated lens modeling techniques. We show that deep learning and simulation-based inference (SBI) methods produce informative and reliable estimates of parameter posteriors for strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys. We present the examination and comparison of two approaches to lens parameter estimation for strong galaxy-galaxy lenses — Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We perform inference on 1-, 5-, and 12-parameter lens models for ground-based imaging data that mimics the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that NPE outperforms BNNs, producing posterior distributions that are more accurate, precise, and well-calibrated for most parameters. For the 12-parameter NPE model, the calibration is consistently within <10% of optimal calibration for all parameters, while the BNN is rarely within 20% of optimal calibration for any of the parameters. Similarly, residuals for most of the parameters are smaller (by up to an order of magnitude) with the NPE model than the BNN model. This work takes important steps in the systematic comparison of methods for different levels of model complexity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology From CMB Lensing and Delensed EE Power Spectra Using 2019-2020 SPT-3G Polarization Data

From CMB polarization data alone we reconstruct the CMB lensing power spectrum, comparable in overall constraining power to previous temperature-based reconstructions, and an unlensed E -mode power spectrum, with clear detections of the third through tenth acoustic peaks. The observations, taken in 2019 and 2020 with the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the SPT-3G camera, cover 1500 deg 2 at 95, 150, and 220 GHz with arcminute resolution and roughly 4.9 µ K-arcmin coadded noise in polarization. The power spectrum estimates, together with systematic parameter estimates and a joint covariance matrix, follow from a Bayesian analysis using the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) method. The E -mode spectrum at ℓ > 2000 and lensing spectrum at L > 350 are the most precise to date. Assuming the ΛCDM model, and using only these SPT data and priors on τ and absolute calibration from Planck, we find H 0 = 66.81 ± 0.81 km/s/Mpc, comparable in precision to the Planck determination and in 5.4 σ tension with the most precise H 0 inference derived via the distance ladder. We also find S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.850 ± 0.017, providing further independent evidence of a slight tension with low-redshift structure probes. The ΛCDM model provides a good simultaneous fit to the combined Planck, ACT, and SPT data, and thus passes a powerful test. Combining these CMB datasets with BAO observations, we explore extensions to the ΛCDM model. We find that the effective number of neutrino species, spatial curvature, and primordial helium fraction are consistent with standard model values, and that the 95% confidence upper limit on the neutrino mass sum is 0.075 eV, close to the minimum sum expected from observations of solar and atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The SPT data are consistent with the somewhat weak (< 3 σ ) preference for excess lensing power seen in Planck and ACT data relative to predictions of the ΛCDM model given the combined Planck, ACT, and BAO data sets. Finally, we also detect at greater than 3 σ the influence of non-linear evolution in the CMB lensing power spectrum and discuss it in the context of the S 8 tension. Forthcoming SPT-3G analyses will feature deeper and wider observations in temperature and polarization, providing even tighter constraints and more powerful tests of the ΛCDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear

We present legacy cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints using six years of Dark Energy Survey imaging data. From these data, we study ~140 million galaxies (8.29 galaxies/arcmin$^2$) that are 50% complete at i=24.0 and extend beyond z=1.2. We divide the galaxies into four redshift bins, and obtain cosmic shear measurement with a signal-to-noise of 83, a factor of 2 higher than the Year 3 analysis. We model the uncertainties due to shear and redshift calibrations, and discard measurements on small angular scales to mitigate baryon feedback and other small-scale uncertainties. We consider two fiducial models to account for the intrinsic alignment (IA) of the galaxies. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $Λ$CDM model and find $S_8 \equiv σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}=0.798^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ (marginalized mean with 68% CL) when using the non-linear alignment model (NLA) and $S_{8} = 0.783^{+0.019}_{-0.015}$ with the tidal alignment and tidal torque model (TATT), providing 1.8% and 2.5% uncertainty on $S_8$. Compared to constraints from the cosmic microwave background from Planck 2018, ACT DR6 and SPT-3G DR1, we find consistency in the full parameter space at 1.1$σ$ (1.7$σ$) and in $S_8$ at 2.0$σ$ (2.3$σ$) for NLA (TATT). The result using the NLA model is preferred according to the Bayesian evidence. We find that the model choice for IA and baryon feedback can impact the value of our $S_8$ constraint up to $1σ$. For our fiducial model choices, the resultant uncertainties in $S_8$ are primarily degraded by the removal of scales, as well as the marginalization over the IA parameters. We demonstrate that our result is internally consistent and robust to different choices in calibrating the data, owing to methodological improvements in shear and redshift measurement, laying the foundation for next-generation cosmic shear programs.

Abbott, T. M.C. [Cerro-Tololo InterAmerican Obs.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Chiral interactions and superfluidity in the calcium isotopic chain

We perform ab initio calculations of three-point mass differences in the odd- and even-mass 39−49Ca isotopes to probe nuclear superfluidity via empirical neutron pairing gaps. We also quantify the sensitivity of those gaps to the parameters of the interaction at mean-field level. Recent studies employing accurate chiral nuclear interactions have found these gaps to be too small. We show that experimental values can be reproduced at mean-field level by substantially increasing the attraction of the singlet 𝑆 -wave two-nucleon contact interaction, but doing so induces an unphysical bound state of the dineutron. The sensitivity of these predictions to the full calibration of the nuclear interaction is then studied by performing Bayesian posterior sampling in a delta-full chiral effective field theory at third chiral order. We find that pairing gaps remain largely unaffected, leaving the explanation of nuclear superfluidity as a future task for improved many-body modeling and refined interactions at higher chiral orders.

Hagen, Gaute [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160191687)↗