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Evaluating interventions through long-term human mobility data: initial methods and lessons learned. The tool generated a rich dataset for research and evaluation of behavior that would otherwise be unobserved. The data enabled robust energy estimation of the program. Practice revealed a need for further refinement to reduce participant data input burden.
Wargames are a common tool for investigating complex conflict scenarios and have a long history of informing military and strategic study. Historically, these games have often been one-offs, may not rigorously collect data, and have been built primarily for exploration rather than developing data-driven analytical conclusions. Experimental wargaming, a new wargaming approach that employs the basic principles of experimental design to facilitate an objective basis for exploring fundamental research questions around human behavior (such as understanding conflict escalation), is a potential tool that can be used in combination with existing wargaming approaches. The Project on Nuclear Gaming, a consortium involving the University of California, Berkeley, Sandia National Laboratories, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, developed an experimental wargame, SIGNAL, to explore questions surrounding conflict escalation and strategic stability in the nuclear context. To date, the SIGNAL experimental wargame has been played hundreds of times by thousands of players from around the world, creating the largest database of wargame data for academic purposes known to the authors. Here, this paper discusses the design of SIGNAL, focusing on how the principles of experimental design influenced this design.
Well characterized experimental data for consequence model validation is important in progressing the use of liquid hydrogen as an energy carrier. In 2019, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) undertook a series of liquid hydrogen dispersion and combustion experiments as a part of the Pre-normative Research into the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) project. In partnership between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and HSE, time and spatially varying hydrogen concentration measurements were made in 25 dispersion experiments and 23 congested ignition experiments associated with PRESLHY WP3 and WP5, respectively. These measurements were undertaken using the hydrogen wide area monitoring system developed by NREL. During the 23 congested ignition experiments, high variability was observed in the measured explosion severity during experiments with similar initial conditions. This led to the conclusion that wind, including localized gusts, had a large influence on the dispersion of the hydrogen, and therefore the quantity of hydrogen that was present in the congested region of the explosions. Using the hydrogen concentration measurements taken immediately prior to ignition, the hydrogen clouds were visualized in an attempt to rationalize the variability in overpressure between the tests. Gaussian process regression was applied to quantify the variability of the measured hydrogen concentrations. This analysis could also be used to guide modifications in experimental designs for future research on hydrogen combustion behavior.
FeCrAl cladding is one of the candidate materials for the near‐term accident‐tolerant fuel technologies under development. Research on high‐temperature mechanical behaviors of single‐crystal FeCrAl alloy is rather limited. Previous studies have reported the mechanical property of low‐index orientation in single‐crystal FeCrAl alloy at room temperature. However, the critical resolved shear stress to activate slip systems can be orientation and temperature dependent. Here, single‐crystal grains in a coarse‐grained FeCrAl alloy with different crystallographic orientations are selected to preferentially activate {110}<111> slip systems or {112}<111> slip systems. Micropillars are fabricated in the selected single‐crystal grains and tested at elevated temperatures in situ in a scanning electron microscope. The critical resolved shear stresses of {110}<111> slip systems and {112}<111> slip systems are determined at various temperatures. The critical resolved shear stress shows a temperature dependence and orientation independence. This study provides important insight for understanding the deformation mechanisms of FeCrAl alloys at elevated temperatures.
Due to its numerous practical applications and intriguing phase transformation behavior, shape memory alloys (SMAs) have garnered significant research and development interests. In the past, most studies on the mechanical behavior of SMAs have been conducted under uniaxial stress loadings. Limited research on SMAs under shock loading has not provided conclusive results regarding their transformation behavior and transformation stress under such loading. Additionally, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding the effects of different stress states on transformation behavior. The main objectives of this study are to address these issues. To achieve these objectives, a series of shock wave experiments were designed and conducted. Additionally, quasi-static and dynamic uniaxial stress experiments were carried out to establish a baseline for comparison. The results revealed that the transformation stress under dynamic uniaxial strain shock loading was approximately 1.92 GPa in contrast to 0.5 GPa (quasi-static) to 0.8 GPa (dynamic) observed in uniaxial stress loading. The transformation behavior exhibited noticeable rate sensitivity for both types of loading. There appeared to be a critical strain rate above which the austenite phase was driven to a metastable state. This estimated critical axial strain rate along the loading direction was approximately 2 × 10 3 /s–4 × 10 3 /s for uniaxial stress loading and approximately 2 × 10 6 /s for uniaxial strain loading. The apparent high transformation stress for uniaxial strain loading can likely be attributed to a combination of high-pressure confinement and high strain rate. Furthermore, determining their relative contributions remains an open issue.
We report the complexity of occupant behavior is one of the major contributors to uncertainty in building performance simulation. Agent-based modeling (ABM), a computational simulation technique, has gained attention in the occupant modeling field due to its capability and flexibility to capture the heterogeneity and dynamics of human behavior and the emergent effects. While multiple efforts in the past decade have demonstrated the usefulness of the ABM approach for simulating occupants and their impacts on building performance, several crucial matters in the ABM research still remain unexplored. This paper presents ten questions that highlight the most important issues regarding ABM research and applications for occupant behavior in the context of building performance simulation. The questions and answers aim to provide insights into current and future ABM research, and more importantly to inspire new significant questions from young researchers in the field. This research is part of the IEA EBC Annex 79 project, occupant-centric building design and operation.
Many advances have been made in building technology to help save energy, but influencing the behavior of the occupants is still necessary to achieve low-energy use targets. One of the most practical ways to influence and change occupant behaviors is through incentives. Developing incentives for energy-saving and quantifying the impact of occupant behaviors are both active areas of research. Here, we propose a data analytics framework for detecting changes in occupant behaviors, which will help build an analytics feedback loop from behavior impact to incentive design. The framework has two major parts. The first forecasts energy consumption for each occupant, while the second determines a probability distribution for changes in energy consumption. The parts are interchangeable with other existing machine learning and statistical methods. A specific instantiation of the framework, using kernel ridge-regression for forecasting and k-means to find an empirical behavior distribution, is described in detail. An HVAC use-case with 5 different incentivized behaviors is used as an example to show that the framework can detect behavior changes induced by incentives. Furthermore, we show that some simpler behavior-change detection methods do not work, further justifying the use of advanced analytics.
Due to increased penetration of low-inertia resources into the electric grid, challenges are increasing for maintaining wide-area system stability. Grid stability assessment requires a faithful representation of the multiple-physics interaction at the system level, and timescales of interaction varying in orders of magnitude, from microseconds to seconds to several minutes. Along with the simulation-based techniques, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL), controller HIL, and power HIL techniques have been developed to better understand the emergent behavior of the system with emerging technologies. US National Laboratories have played a vital role in research and development to understand the behavior of individual technologies and devices integrated to the electric grid. Each national laboratory forwards a technological and strategic initiative tied core and enabling capabilities. Due to strategic, efficiency, and economic reasons, not all the labs have assets to conduct research on all technologies concomitantly, so it becomes crucial to integrate the labs across geographies to understand the interplay of different technologies together at the system level. This approach avoids duplication of the assets at different lab facilities and helps understand the integrated system behavior of various technologies representative of actual grid conditions by connecting multiple national labs. This article talks about techniques of connecting three national laboratories to enable co-emulation of electrical–mechanical–thermal characteristics of devices and systems. Such an approach can be used to understand the dynamic and transient interaction of multi-physics in a system level, at-scale emulation using real-time simulation tools and techniques.
Hydraulic fracturing technology, along with horizontal drilling and associated completion technologies, dramatically increased US oil and gas production, by increasing the permeability of tight shales and allowing for cost-effective extraction of trapped hydrocarbons. For efficient and economical production, the targeted shale has to be fractured easily (i.e., good ‘frackability’), but also the permeability of induced fractures have to be sustained during production (good ‘sustainability’). For these reasons, currently, ductile shale with high clay content (>~40%) is difficult to exploit as a hydrocarbon resource, although hydrocarbons can still be found in it. Good frackability, high-TOC, low-clay-content resource shales—the ‘low-hanging fruit’—will be depleted, and we need to develop tools that allow tapping into currently underutilized, clay-rich ductile shales. This research project aims (1) to understand the behavior of fractures in clay-rich, ductile (and sometimes swelling) shales and (2) to begin to develop technologies for efficient and economical production from such shales. With these objectives, we examine time-dependent, coupled mechanical-hydrological behavior of open and proppant-filled fractures within different types of shales. In the preceding project, the focus of the research was to understand the behavior of the fractures and to predict their permeability changes due to fracture closure from shale matrix deformation and proppant embedment. In the current project, we investigate the possibility of chemically manipulating the sustainability of hydraulic fractures in ductile shales—specifically by altering the proppant-embedding behavior—via chemical means, at different stages of oil and gas production.
Patterns of bat activity and mortalities at wind energy facilities suggest that bats are attracted to wind turbines based on bat behavioral responses to wind turbines. For example, current monitoring efforts suggest that bat activity increases post-wind turbine construction, with bats making multiple passes near wind turbines. We separated the attraction hypothesis into five previously proposed explanations of bat interactions at or near wind turbines, including attraction based on noise, roost sites, foraging and water, mating behavior, and lights, and one new hypothesis regarding olfaction, and provide a state of the knowledge in 2022. Our review indicates that future research should prioritize attraction based on social behaviors, such as mating and scent-marking, as this aspect of the attraction hypothesis has many postulates and remains the most unclear. Relatively more data regarding attraction to wind turbines based on lighting and noise emission exist, and these data indicate that these are unlikely attractants. Analyzing attraction at the species-level should be prioritized because of differences in foraging, flight, and social behavior among bat species. Lastly, research assessing bat attraction at various scales, such as the turbine or facility scale, is lacking, which could provide important insights for both wind turbine siting decisions and bat mortality minimization strategies. Identifying the causes of bat interactions with wind turbines is critical for developing effective impact minimization strategies.
Disinformation poses a significant and evolving threat to today’s online environment. Individuals encounter challenges in detecting disinformation, subsequently influencing their behavior and decision-making processes. Our research examines the potential use of large language model (LLM) generative agents (LGAs) to replicate human behavior to better understand how disinformation is spread in online environments. Using human subjects research, we first investigate how personality traits, individual differences, and demographic factors relate to decision-making in simulated online disinformation environments. Then, we examine whether LGAs can effectively replicate human responses in the same simulated online environments when assigned personality traits, demographic characteristics and behavioral attributes. Our findings indicate that LGAs can align with human decisions in these scenarios; however, alignment is contingent upon scenario context, persona settings and LLM selection. Results provide valuable insights for methodology refinement in future research and in utilizing LGAs to model complex national security challenges such as disinformation campaigns.
Steels have a proven track record of safe operation in steam power plants for decades. Interest in developing supercritical CO2 power cycles as a more efficient and sustainable alternative to steam cycles has driven a need to understand steel performance in these new environments. In particular, the potential of the high temperature CO2 environment to influence the creep behavior of the steel must be determined. Prior research on this topic between the 1960s and 1980s found conflicting conclusions, but nevertheless raised the possibility that carburization during CO2 exposure may strongly affect the creep behavior. This raises concerns particularly for thin-sectioned components such as compact heat exchangers, where even small rates of carburization can become problematic over long operating lifetimes. To shed light on this issue, this research investigates the creep behavior of austenitic stainless steel 347H and 309H (a higher Cr alternative) at 650°C. Specimens of 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 mm thickness were tested to further assess the effect of steel thickness. Both steels show a reduction in creep life in CO2 relative to air, with 309H showing slightly better performance than 374H. Analysis is ongoing to determine the reason for degraded creep properties.
Steels have a proven track record of safe operation in steam power plants for decades. Interest in developing supercritical CO2 power cycles as a more efficient and sustainable alternative to steam cycles has driven a need to understand steel performance in these new environments. In particular, the potential of the high temperature CO2 environment to influence the creep behavior of the steel must be determined. Prior research on this topic between the 1960s and 1980s found conflicting conclusions, but nevertheless raised the possibility that carburization during CO2 exposure may strongly affect the creep behavior. This raises concerns particularly for thin-sectioned components such as compact heat exchangers, where even small rates of carburization can become problematic over long operating lifetimes. To shed light on this issue, this research investigates the creep behavior of austenitic stainless steel 347H and 309H (a higher Cr alternative) at 650°C. Specimens of 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 mm thickness were tested to further assess the effect of steel thickness. Both steels show a reduction in creep life in CO2 relative to air, with 309H showing slightly better performance than 374H. Analysis is ongoing to determine the reason for degraded creep properties.
Rational design of electrocatalysts for (photo)electrochemical (PEC) processes like hydrogen and oxygen evolution and CO2 reduction reactions is aided by the recent improvements in capabilities of operando measurements, where morphology, composition, and/or function are probed during active catalysis. Through operando microscopy and spectroscopy, structure, catalytic microenvironment, oxidation state, adsorbates, and products can be measured to gain a better understanding of catalyst behavior and suggest possible improvements. Visualizing evolving catalyst morphologies, surface compositions, and electrochemical behavior also helps address many fundamental research questions for a better understanding of catalytic mechanisms. Correlating morphology with chemical identity or functional behavior using a variety of innovative microscopy methods is particularly promising for guiding development of next generation catalysts, and there are also many recent examples of using AI and robotics tools to innovate and speed development. In this Perspective, advances made over the past few years in operando imaging of catalysts relevant to solar fuels will be explored, followed by an outlook on technological developments in instrumentation, sample design, and computational power that may be applied to this field.
The severity of the cancer statistics around the globe and the complexity involving the behavior of cancer cells inevitably calls for contributions from multidisciplinary areas of research. As such, materials science became a powerful asset to support biological research in comprehending the macro and microscopic behavior of cancer cells and untangling factors that may contribute to their progression or remission. The contributions of cellular water dynamics in this process have always been debated and, in recent years, experimental works performed with Quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS) brought new perspectives to these discussions. In this review, we address these works and highlight the value of QENS in comprehending the role played by water molecules in tumor cells and their response to external agents, particularly chemotherapy drugs. In addition, this paper provides an overview of QENS intended for scientists with different backgrounds and comments on the possibilities to be explored with the next-generation spectrometers under construction.
The burgeoning electric automobile industry has increased interest in battery safety. Battery cells experience significant mechanical stress during operation, including the impact of accidents and vibrations from driving. The potential for thermal runaway reactions in battery cells raises safety concerns. Although numerous researchers have defined the dynamic behavior of battery cells and proposed numerical models to describe it, few studies have focused on the high-strain rate mechanical impact phase correlated with the onset of fracture. In this study, we describe the dynamic behavior of pouch battery cells and propose a modeling method to study their mechanical failure under impact situations. Impact tests are conducted at various velocities and heights. To overcome numerical issues commonly encountered under rapid deformation scenarios, a new finite element model is developed based on the representative volume element model. The proposed approach efficiently simulates continuous crack propagation and brittleness behavior during impact by permitting the individual behavior of the cell components. Therefore, engineers can reliably design safer electric vehicle battery cells by measuring the properties of the cell components.
Achieving the goals of green buildings critically depends on the fault-free operation of heating, ventilation and air conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems. However, faults frequently occur in these systems, causing a range of negative consequences, including increased energy consumption, diminished operational performance, compromised indoor environmental quality, higher operational costs, and shortened system lifespan. The evaluation of fault behaviors and impacts plays a critical role in revealing fault characteristics and consequently supports many research areas, including the design of the high-performance equipment, development of fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) and robust control approaches, as well as the enhancement of maintenance decision-making activities. This paper systematically reviews 112 research publications that reported the analysis and evaluation of fault behaviors and impacts in HVAC&R systems over the past thirty years. Here, we designed a review approach to address five crucial research questions, namely: 1) the objectives of analysis and evaluation of fault behaviors and impacts, 2) data sources, 3) equipment/system types and fault types, 4) evaluation methods including evaluation measures and associated metrics, and 5) challenges and future directions in the research on evaluating of fault behaviors and impacts. In-depth discussions on these questions help bridge the gap between the evaluation of fault behaviors and impacts and their practical applications, such as the development of high-performance systems, fault models, FDD methods, and maintenance decision-making tools within the HVAC&R FDD domain.
The Greater Triangle Household Travel Survey was a comprehensive study of travel behavior throughout the 12-county Research Triangle Region, including all portions of Chatham, Durham, Franklin, Granville, Johnston, Lee, Orange, Person, Wake, and Vance counties, the eastern portion of Harnett County, and the southern portion of Nash County. The primary objective of this survey effort was to document demographic and travel behavior characteristics of regional travelers in order to update the current regional model and to develop a new, more robust travel demand model for the 12-county region. The 2006 survey was conducted in association with NuStats' DataSource and Louis Berger Group and was sponsored by the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization, the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization, the Triangle Transit Authority, and the North Carolina Department of Transportation. The project was conducted over an eleven-month period from August 2005 through June 2006. The survey utilized standard household travel survey methods, in which all household members from 5,107 households were asked to record all trips for a specified 24-hour period using a specially designed travel log on a non-holiday weekday.