Results for “Better Climate Challenge” — Page 5

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2022

Better calibration of cloud parameterizations and subgrid effects increases the fidelity of the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1

Abstract. Realistic simulation of the Earth's mean-state climate remains a major challenge, and yet it is crucial for predicting the climate system in transition. Deficiencies in models' process representations, propagation of errors from one process to another, and associated compensating errors can often confound the interpretation and improvement of model simulations. These errors and biases can also lead to unrealistic climate projections and incorrect attribution of the physical mechanisms governing past and future climate change. Here we show that a significantly improved global atmospheric simulation can be achieved by focusing on the realism of process assumptions in cloud calibration and subgrid effects using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1). The calibration of clouds and subgrid effects informed by our understanding of physical mechanisms leads to significant improvements in clouds and precipitation climatology, reducing common and long-standing biases across cloud regimes in the model. The improved cloud fidelity in turn reduces biases in other aspects of the system. Furthermore, even though the recalibration does not change the global mean aerosol and total anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs), the sensitivity of clouds, precipitation, and surface temperature to aerosol perturbations is significantly reduced. This suggests that it is possible to achieve improvements to the historical evolution of surface temperature over EAMv1 and that precise knowledge of global mean ERFs is not enough to constrain historical or future climate change. Cloud feedbacks are also significantly reduced in the recalibrated model, suggesting that there would be a lower climate sensitivity when it is run as part of the fully coupled E3SM. This study also compares results from incremental changes to cloud microphysics, turbulent mixing, deep convection, and subgrid effects to understand how assumptions in the representation of these processes affect different aspects of the simulated atmosphere as well as its response to forcings. We conclude that the spectral composition and geographical distribution of the ERFs and cloud feedback, as well as the fidelity of the simulated base climate state, are important for constraining the climate in the past and future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Advancement in Weather and Water Prediction in the Upper Colorado River Basin: The SPLASH Campaign

Water is a critical resource that causes significant challenges to inhabitants of the western United States. These challenges are likely to intensify as the result of expanding population and climate-related changes that act to reduce runoff in areas of complex terrain. To better understand the physical processes that drive the transition of mountain precipitation to streamflow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has deployed suites of environmental sensors throughout the East River watershed of Colorado as part of the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH). This includes surface-based sensors over a network of five different observing sites, airborne platforms, and sophisticated remote sensors to provide detailed information on spatiotemporal variability of key parameters. With a 2-yr deployment, these sensors offer detailed insight into precipitation, the lower atmosphere, and the surface, and support the development of datasets targeting improved prediction of weather and water. Initial datasets have been published and are laying a foundation for improved characterization of physical processes and their interactions driving mountain hydrology, evaluation and improvement of numerical prediction tools, and educational activities. SPLASH observations contain a depth and breadth of information that enables a variety of atmospheric and hydrological science analyses over the coming years that leverage collaborations between national laboratories, academia, and stakeholders, including industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Use of Remote Sensing and In-situ Observations to Develop and Evaluate Improved Representations of Convection and Clouds for the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy. Final report

Representation of unresolved cloud processes has been one of the most challenging problems in numerical modeling of the atmosphere. During the last decades, considerable efforts have been spent to better represent the collective effects of those processes in terms of resolved scales (see Arakawa 2004 for a review). Still, the progress on this problem has been unacceptably slow as pointed out by Randall et al. (2003). The large part of the difficulty is inherent in the artificial separation of atmospheric processes into the explicitly simulated resolved scales and the highly parameterized subgrid scales. Arakawa (2004) and Arakawa et al. (2011) suggested two plausible approaches to eliminate the problem of artificial separation of atmospheric processes: “parameterize everything” and “resolve everything”.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Partial Support of the Fast-Track Consensus Study on Foundational Research Gaps and Future Directions for Digital Twins (Final Report)

This study from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was launched to explore the foundational research gaps and opportunities for digital twins. As part of the information gathering process, the committee organized three targeted workshops—in engineering, climate sciences, and biomedical sciences—to better understand domain-specific nuances and barriers to developing digital twins. These sessions enabled cross-sector experts to surface field-specific needs, challenges, and open questions related to digital twins. Thousands of participants across multiple domains engaged in the discussions, which workshops were summarized in three separate Proceedings-in-Brief.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

TRACER-VOC: Speciated Volatile Organic Compounds at the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment Field Campaign Report

Formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is responsible for the growth of particles into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)-relevant sizes and accounts for a substantial fraction of aerosol mass in the troposphere. Despite its wide abundance and importance, capturing SOA in regional and climate models is still challenging due to complex chemical transformations involved in production of SOA. Oxidation products of biogenic hydrocarbons, such as isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes account for the largest fraction of SOA mass over the continents. As such, biogenic SOA is an important source of continental CCN, and has been recently shown to nucleate ice in the deposition mode. To better account for the processes involved in SOA formation in global and regional climate models, we need better measurements of sources and transformations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), the precursors to SOA formation in the atmosphere. Understanding aerosol-deep convection interactions is an important science driver of the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER), requiring a characterization of the critical controls on aerosol properties and processes, and how those properties and processes vary spatially and temporally in the Houston area. In that environment, the atmospheric photo-oxidative chemistry that drives the evolution and transformation of aerosol properties and processes is strongly impacted by the emission of VOCs, which have both anthropogenic (e.g., industrial, urban, transportation, biomass burning) and biogenic (e.g., marine) sources in the region. Understanding (and disentangling) the complex role of VOCs in such a heterogenous region requires high-time-resolution, speciated VOC measurements that are spatially resolved. To meet these measurement requirements, the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s time-of-flight proton transfer reaction-mass spectrometer (ToF-PTR-MS) was deployed during the TRACER intensive operational period (IOP) from June to September, 2022 at the ancillary site (ANC), which was sited to provide a characterization of the rural atmospheric environment in contrast to the main site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Research to Confront Climate Change Complexity: Intersectionality, Integration, and Innovative Governance

Abstract Climate impacts increasingly unfold in interlinked systems of people, nature, and infrastructure. The cascading consequences are revealing sometimes surprising connections across sectors and regions, and prospects for climate responses also depend on complex, difficult‐to‐understand interactions. In this commentary, we build on the innovations of the United States Fifth National Climate Assessment to suggest a framework for understanding and responding to complex climate challenges. This approach involves: (a) integration of disciplines and expertise to understand how intersectionality shapes complex climate impacts and the wide‐ranging effects of climate responses, (b) collaborations among diverse knowledge holders to improve responses and better encompass intersectionality, and (c) sustained experimentation with and learning about governance approaches capable of handling the complexity of climate change. Together, these three pillars underscore that usability of climate‐relevant knowledge requires transdisciplinary coordination of research and practice. We outline actionable steps for climate research to incorporate intersectionality, integration, and innovative governance, as is increasingly necessary for confronting climate complexity and sustaining equitable, ideally vibrant climate futures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this work, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

essential biodiversity variables↗

DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using supervised machine-learning approaches to understand abiotic stress tolerance and design resilient crops

Abiotic stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity and flooding significantly impact plant growth, development and productivity. As the planet has warmed, these abiotic stresses have increased in frequency and intensity, affecting the global food supply and making it imperative to develop stress-resilient crops. In the past 20 years, the development of omics technologies has contributed to the growth of datasets for plants grown under a wide range of abiotic environments. Integration of these rapidly growing data using machine-learning (ML) approaches can complement existing breeding efforts by providing insights into the mechanisms underlying plant responses to stressful conditions, which can be used to guide the design of resilient crops. In this review, we introduce ML approaches and provide examples of how researchers use these approaches to predict molecular activities, gene functions and genotype responses under stressful conditions. Finally, we consider the potential and challenges of using such approaches to enable the design of crops that are better suited to a changing environment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Crops under stress: can we mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and launch the ‘Resilience Revolution’?’.

abiotic stress↗

DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Confronting Climate Change Complexity: Intersectionality, Integration, and Innovative Governance

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Climate impacts increasingly unfold in interlinked systems of people, nature, and infrastructure. The cascading consequences are revealing sometimes surprising connections, and prospects for climate responses also depend on complex interactions. In this presentation, we will introduce key findings from the United States Fifth National Climate Assessment and build upon them to suggest a framework for understanding and responding to complex climate challenges. This approach involves: (1) integration of disciplines and expertise to understand how intersectionality shapes complex climate impacts and the wide-ranging effects of climate responses, (2) collaborations among diverse knowledge holders to improve responses and better encompass intersectionality, and (3) sustained experimentation with and learning about governance approaches capable of handling the complexity of climate change. We outline actionable steps for climate research to incorporate these pillars, as is increasingly necessary for confronting climate complexity and sustaining equitable, ideally vibrant climate futures. Presenters : Katharine J. Mach, Kripa Jagannathan, Carlos E. Martín, and Linda Shi Moderator: Pat M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: March 28th, 2024 from 1-2 PM ET

Mach, Katharine J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

DAWN: Dashboard for Agricultural Water Use and Nutrient Management—A Predictive Decision Support System to Improve Crop Production in a Changing Climate

Abstract Climate change presents huge challenges to the already-complex decisions faced by U.S. agricultural producers, as seasonal weather patterns increasingly deviate from historical tendencies. Under USDA funding, a transdisciplinary team of researchers, extension experts, educators, and stakeholders is developing a climate decision support Dashboard for Agricultural Water use and Nutrient management (DAWN) to provide Corn Belt farmers with better predictive information. DAWN’s goal is to provide credible, usable information to support decisions by creating infrastructure to make subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts accessible. DAWN uses an integrated approach to 1) engage stakeholders to coproduce a decision support and information delivery system; 2) build a coupled modeling system to represent and transfer holistic systems knowledge into effective tools; 3) produce reliable forecasts to help stakeholders optimize crop productivity and environmental quality; and 4) integrate research and extension into experiential, transdisciplinary education. This article presents DAWN’s framework for integrating climate–agriculture research, extension, and education to bridge science and service. We also present key challenges to the creation and delivery of decision support, specifically in infrastructure development, coproduction and trust building with stakeholders, product design, effective communication, and moving tools toward use.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating very-high-resolution UAS data and airborne imaging spectroscopy to map the fractional composition of Arctic plant functional types in Western Alaska

Widespread changes in vegetation cover and composition are driving strong impacts on Arctic ecosystem functioning and global climate feedbacks. An accurate characterization of tundra vegetation composition is required to understand how the Arctic will respond to future climate change. However, quantifying tundra vegetation composition over large areas is challenging as commonly-used satellite observations are too coarse, spatially and spectrally, to differentiate low-lying tundra vegetation types. Recent airborne and spaceborne imaging spectroscopy platforms provide better data to characterize vegetation composition. Yet, our ability to characterize vegetation composition with imaging spectroscopy remains largely unexplored in the Arctic, particularly due to a lack of ground observations needed to train and test classification models. To address this problem, we collected very-high-resolution (VHR, ~5 cm) unoccupied aerial system (UAS) imagery at three low-Arctic tundra sites located on the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of integrating imagery from the UAS and the hyperspectral Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer, Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) airborne instrument to map the fractional composition of 12 key Arctic plant functional types (PFTs). To this end, we first mapped the 12 PFTs from our VHR UAS imagery using random forest classification. We then used these UAS-derived PFT maps as ground truth to develop partial least squares regression (PLSR) models to predict the fractional cover (FCover) of each PFT from AVIRIS-NG imagery. Further, we evaluated the performance of our PLSR models using reserved UAS samples, as well as by mapping PFT FCover and dominant PFT for large tundra landscapes. Our results show that 1) Arctic PFTs can be effectively mapped using VHR UAS imagery, with overall accuracy between 86% and 92%, 2) when the UAS mapped PFTs were used to inform PLSR scaling models, the FCover of the 12 PFTs could be effectively estimated from AVIRIS-NG imagery with a mean absolute error (MAE) <0.13, and 3) our PLSR models outperformed traditional, fully constrained least-squares (FCLS) linear mixture analysis and produced high-quality, spatially contiguous PFT FCover and PFT maps that captured vegetation spatial patterns with similar accuracy to those developed from UAS imagery. The developed PLSR models have the potential to be broadly applied for quantifying vegetation composition with AVIRIS-NG images to help monitor tundra vegetation dynamics and improve process-based modeling of tundra ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

AttentionFire_v1.0: interpretable machine learning fire model for burned-area predictions over tropics

Abstract. African and South American (ASA) wildfires account for more than 70 % of global burned areas and have strong connection to local climate for sub-seasonal to seasonal wildfire dynamics. However, representation of the wildfire–climate relationship remains challenging due to spatiotemporally heterogenous responses of wildfires to climate variability and human influences. Here, we developed an interpretable machine learning (ML) fire model (AttentionFire_v1.0) to resolve the complex controls of climate and human activities on burned areas and to better predict burned areas over ASA regions. Our ML fire model substantially improved predictability of burned areas for both spatial and temporal dynamics compared with five commonly used machine learning models. More importantly, the model revealed strong time-lagged control from climate wetness on the burned areas. The model also predicted that, under a high-emission future climate scenario, the recently observed declines in burned area will reverse in South America in the near future due to climate changes. Our study provides a reliable and interpretable fire model and highlights the importance of lagged wildfire–climate relationships in historical and future predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated parameter and process learning for hydrologic and biogeochemical modules in Earth System Models

Focus area: Primary focal area #2; secondary focal area #3: Learning about parameters and processes of land surface hydrologic and biogeochemical models in Earth System models by integrating machine learning, physics, and big data. Science challenges: How do we maximally leverage big-data observations to improve hydrobiogeochemical process description and parameterization so that such modules more realistically capture hydrologic and vegetation responses and feedbacks under the future climate? For example, how can we leverage physics, limited observations of vegetation and streamflow to better estimate evapotranspiration, and, relatedly, net primary productivity, especially for drought areas? Vegetation plays a critical role in regional and global water cycles; however, existing vegetation models have failed to predict vegetation response to droughts (McDowell & Xu, 2017) , arctic greening (Keenan & Riley, 2018) , and critical transitions between forest and savanna (Hirota et al., 2011) . These studies suggest that when we build process-based models (PBM) parameterized from regional and global plant traits, we tend to poorly describe plant adaptation and local-scale competition processes. The models and their associated parameters assigned for different regions in the world are not capturing essential heterogeneity in vegetation responses at finer spatial scales. Many parameters of the land surface models control hydrology and vegetation dynamics at the same time. The heterogeneity in vegetation response is a function of (i) plant type, (ii) plant size, (iii) competition and succession, (iv) environmental controls, and (v) local variations due to the unique ecological community that are very difficult to describe (e.g., the size of gaps resulting from fire that facilitated the coexistence of pioneering species). In the demographic models, only factors (i) and (iv) were captured, and plant types were generally described only by leaf phenology and climate zones. With current demographic models, we generally consider more traits to define plant types (i) and calibrate these traits to consider factors (ii), (iii) and (iv); however, it is substantially challenging to scale to regional and global simulations due to trait variations across space (Ali et al., 2016). Moreover, it has been noted that hillslope processes, including ridge-to-valley flow and sunny vs. shady slopes are primary organizers of water, energy, and vegetation (Clark et al., 2015; Fan et al., 2019) . Although gradual improvements in the hydrologic model component in earth system models may reduce this error (at a remarkably slow pace), the long-term, gradual impact of hydrology on plant traits are not well captured. Recent work showed that the hydrologic controls exerted by groundwater and lateral flow are primary regulators of rooting depth (Fan et al., 2017) . Such hydrologic controls have seldom been reflected in vegetation model parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗