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Ten questions on building stock modeling to inform energy efficiency and sustainability

To enhance economic competitiveness and ensure energy efficiency, resilience, and security, cities and governments are adopting technologies and strategies to improve their existing building stocks. This approach aims to reduce energy use, improve energy affordability, and ensure a reliable power supply while safeguarding occupants during extreme weather events that may disrupt energy services. The effectiveness of these solutions will depend on building stock characteristics, use patterns, weather conditions, evolving technologies and their markets, and a city’s socio-economic conditions. This paper presents ten questions and answers that highlight the most important issues regarding the use of building stock modeling as a powerful tool to provide insights for informing stakeholders’ actions and decision-making on energy efficiency, costs reduction, and resilience of buildings in cities. Building stock modeling should build upon the fit-for-purpose framework, balancing the use case accuracy requirements, level of complexity, and needed resources (expertise, compute). The advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), the increasingly available open dataset of building stock in cities, and the more affordable powerful computing will accelerate the adoption of building stock modeling across scales by researchers and practitioners to inform decision making on sustainability and efficiency.

AI

ResStock Technical Reference Documentation (V.3.3.0)

ResStock™ is the best-in-class building stock energy model for simulating and publishing energy use, utility bills, and greenhouse gas emissions from the residential sector of the U.S. ResStock answers two primary questions: (1) How is energy used in the U.S. residential building stock? and (2) What is the timeseries aggregate impact of energy technologies? Specifically, ResStock quantifies energy use across geographical locations, demographic groups, building types, fuels, end uses, and time of day. Additionally, it details the impact of efficiency or electrification measures: total changes in the amount of energy used by measure; where or in what use cases efficiency or electrification upgrade measures save energy; when or at what times of day savings occur; and which building stock or demographic segments have the biggest savings potential. This model, and the datasets it produces, are foundational to identifying pathways to affordable and equitable decarbonization of the U.S. residential buildings sector.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

A sensitivity model for energy consumption in buildings. Part 1: Effect of exterior environment

A simple analytical model is developed for the simulation of seasonal heating and cooling loads of any class of buildings to complement available computerized techniques which make hourly, daily, and monthly calculations. An expression for the annual energy utilization index, which is a common measure of rating buildings having the same functional utilization, is derived to include about 30 parameters for both building interior and exterior environments. The sensitivity of a general class building to either controlled or uncontrolled weather parameters is examined. A hypothetical office type building, located at the Goldstone Space Communication Complex, Goldstone, California, is selected as an example for the numerical sensitivity evaluations. Several expressions of variations in local outside air temperature, pressure, solar radiation, and wind velocity are presented.

Lansing, F. L.

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Laboratory-Informed Modeling of Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Units

This measure scenario replaces gas and electric resistance RTUs in the U.S. commercial building stock with standard efficiency commercial off the shelf heat pump rooftop units. This study uses performance data informed by NREL laboratory testing of a standard efficiency 7.5-ton heat pump RTU. This is the key distinction between this measure scenario and a similar ComStock measure scenario - Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Units - that uses published manufacturer data tables to inform performance. These two scenarios are compared in this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

From RNNs to Foundation Models: An Empirical Study on Commercial Building Energy Consumption

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting for commercial buildings is crucial for smart grid operations. While smart meters and deep learning models enable forecasting using past data from multiple buildings, data heterogeneity from diverse buildings can reduce model performance. The impact of increasing dataset heterogeneity in time series forecasting, while keeping size and model constant, is understudied. We tackle this issue using the ComStock dataset, which provides synthetic energy consumption data for U.S. commercial buildings. Two curated subsets, identical in size and region but differing in building type diversity, are used to assess the performance of various time series forecasting models, including finetuned open-source foundation models (FMs). The results show that dataset heterogeneity and model architecture have a greater impact on post-training forecasting performance than the parameter count. Moreover, despite the higher computational cost, finetuned FMs demonstrate competitive performance compared to base models trained from scratch.

commercial buildings

An Online Tool for Preliminary Design and Techno-Economic Analysis of District Geothermal Heating and Cooling Systems

District geothermal heating and cooling systems (DGHCS) have significant benefits for reducing energy consumption as well as building- and grid-level peak electric demand. Currently, no publicly available tools are available to effectively design and conduct techno-economic analysis of DGHCS. GeoWISE was originally developed for preliminary design and techno-economic analysis of geothermal heating and cooling systems in an individual commercial or residential building. This paper introduces recent upgrades of GeoWISE that allow users to design and conduct techno-economic analysis of DGHCS. Several new features are implemented in GeoWISE to allow selection and specification of multiple new or existing buildings. A database of information for over 125 million existing U.S. buildings was used in GeoWISE that allows users easily locate existing buildings of interest based on street addresses, and optionally edit information of the buildings (e.g., footprint, vintage, principal functions, number of floors, window-to-wall ratio). Unique energy simulation models of the selected buildings are then automatically created using the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) and EnergyPlus simulations are performed to predict thermal loads of the buildings. A simplified DGHCS is then designed and simulated to predict its energy use. A central borehole heat exchanger (BHE) of the DGHCS is sized using the RowWise algorithm of GHEDesigner to meet the thermal loads within user-specified land areas for installing BHE. The upgraded GeoWISE reports the needed capacity of heating and cooling equipment in each building, design of the central BHE, energy consumption reduction, and energy cost saving resulting from using DGHCS compared with conventional HVAC systems. A case study is showcased using the upgraded GeoWISE to design and conduct techno-economic analysis of a simplified DGHCS.

Prem Anand Jayaprabha, Jyothis Anand [ORNL] (ORCID

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Window Film

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - window film. The window film studied in this analysis, called solar control film, is a passive retrofit solution for windows that does not involve window replacement. This type of film is composed of transparent, tinted, or metalized laminated polyester layers and can be attached to an existing window surface (either on the exterior or interior side of the window). The properties of the window film are designed to shift the thermal and optical performances of the overall glazing system in order to serve various needs the customer would have (e.g., heat, glare). While the practical goal of purchasing and installing a window film varies widely in the real market, this study only focuses on the goal of energy savings, and highlighting the corresponding emissions. Other important aspects that customers typically consider include visual comfort, privacy, aesthetics, ultraviolet protection, etc. Thus, in practice, customers often choose a window film product not only to save energy (or cost) but also to mitigate issues around glare, excessive light, daytime privacy, or inconsistent appearance of the building. Window film products that were modeled in this analysis significantly reduced the solar heat gain coefficient of the overall glazing system, resulting in better energy savings for buildings in hot climate regions. However, significantly reducing the solar heat gain coefficient that can block unfavorable heat during the summer can actually harm blocking favorable heat during the winter. By applying window films on a stock of buildings covering various load and weather conditions, this analysis highlights when (e.g., time of day) and where (e.g., geospacial location) we can save energy with window films.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Energy consumption program: A computer model simulating energy loads in buildings

The JPL energy consumption computer program developed as a useful tool in the on-going building modification studies in the DSN energy conservation project is described. The program simulates building heating and cooling loads and computes thermal and electric energy consumption and cost. The accuracy of computations are not sacrificed, however, since the results lie within + or - 10 percent margin compared to those read from energy meters. The program is carefully structured to reduce both user's time and running cost by asking minimum information from the user and reducing many internal time-consuming computational loops. Many unique features were added to handle two-level electronics control rooms not found in any other program.

Stoller, F. W.

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: Wall and Roof Insulation, New Windows, LED Lighting, HP-RTU and ASHP-Boiler

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility enduse load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. “Measures” refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: Wall and Roof Insulation and New Windows

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on an upgrade package of three end-use savings shapes upgrades - Window Replacement, Exterior Wall Insulation, and Roof Insulation, which we will refer to collectively as the "High Efficiency Envelope" package. More details on the individual upgrades can be found on the ComStock Measures Documentation page. An upgrade package applies two or more EUSS upgrades to a single building model simulation. Since ComStock is a bottom-up physics-based model, an upgrade package will go beyond aggregating or summing the individual upgrade results and produce novel results by simulating interactions between the upgrades. For example, pairing an envelope upgrade with an electrification upgrade would likely result in higher savings results than the sum of these upgrades individually, and the size of the heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment may be reduced if the envelope upgrade reduces the loads significantly.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Energy Cost Estimate Tool v2.0: Methodology and Usage

Information about home energy costs is essential for appraisers, lenders, and buyers, but reliable data are often unavailable in real estate transactions. To fill this gap, the National Laboratory of the Rockies developed the Energy Cost Estimate (ECE) tool. The tool provides flexible, data-driven estimates of annual household energy use and costs across the contiguous United States, using only a small number of inputs typically found in mortgage appraisals. This report presents the methodology behind version 2.0 of the ECE tool, demonstrates how users can generate estimates through its interface, and discusses its applications and limitations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Addressing Rising Energy Demand Through Innovation

The U.S. is facing a significant increase in energy demand, driven by AI advancements, the rapid expansion of data centers, manufacturing and industrial growth, and the electrification of transportation and buildings. Buildings alone account for approximately 75% of U.S. electricity consumption and 40% of total energy use. To address these challenges, NLR leverages its state-of-the-art research facilities, advanced energy modeling, hardware-in-the-loop emulation, and real-world demonstrations to provide data-driven insights that de-risk emerging energy solutions, increase efficiency and demand flexibility, optimize grid controls, and identify vulnerabilities to enhance energy security. This presentation will highlight our research ecosystem and its role in supporting a more reliable, affordable, and adaptive energy infrastructure in the face of accelerating demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Computer modeling of the neurotoxin binding site of acetylcholine receptor spanning residues 185 through 196

A model of the complex between the acetylcholine receptor and the snake neurotoxin, cobratoxin, was built by molecular model building and energy optimization techniques. The experimentally identified functionally important residues of cobratoxin and the dodecapeptide corresponding to the residues 185-196 of acetylcholine receptor alpha subunit were used to build the model. Both cis and trans conformers of cyclic L-cystine portion of the dodecapeptide were examined. Binding residues independently identified on cobratoxin are shown to interact with the dodecapeptide AChR model.

NASA Discipline Exobiology

AI-Based Analytics and Energy Modeling Framework for Characterizing Urban Energy Systems

Developing location-specific district energy models is essential for understanding energy patterns and supporting efficient management and planning decisions. However, accurately characterizing these models remains challenging due to gaps in building characteristics and labor-intensive traditional modeling workflows. To address these challenges, we develop an AI-based framework that integrates top-down and bottom-up building energy data to automate urban energy model characterization. The framework trains multimodal deep learning models using heterogeneous ResStockTM datasets to infer missing building characteristics from varying levels of known information and generate simulation-ready inputs for district-scale energy modeling. It also employs a conditioning-based injection approach to generate ”what-if” scenarios, enabling users to explore retrofit, efficiency, and technology-upgrade pathways. Integrated within URBANoptTM, a bottom-up district energy modeling platform for simulating co-located buildings, the framework infers detailed building-level inputs required for bottom-up simulations. Both localized and generalized AI models are developed to learn relationships across categorical, numerical, and time-series data, enabling reconstruction of missing attributes and generation of targeted upgrade scenarios. We demonstrate this methodology on a residential neighborhood in Baltimore, MD, assessing internal consistency against ResStock reference data and URBANopt simulation, and comparing selected attributes against real-world building characteristics. Results show strong overall predictive accuracy in data completion and scenario generation, with localized and generalized models offering complementary trade-offs between precision and scalability. Overall, our automated framework streamlines energy modeling and provides a reliable framework for urban building energy characterization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Multi-criteria thermal resilience certification scheme for indoor built environments during heat waves

With climate change, the indoor built environment is expected to significantly influence the occupant's safety and well-being. A novel multi-criteria thermal resilience certification scheme for indoor built environments during extreme heat events is proposed in this paper. The certification scheme considers overheating, thermal comfort, heat stress, and hygrothermal discomfort in built environments. These criteria are quantified using key performance indicators like indoor overheating degree, hours of exceedance, wet-bulb globe temperature, and heat index, respectively. This scheme is developed based on existing best practices like standards, rating systems, and literature. The scheme is implemented on a benchmark building energy performance model for detached post-World War II dwellings in Belgium as a case study using weather data measured from the City of Brussels. The indoor overheating in the reference dwelling is assessed with a static threshold of 27 °C for the bedrooms and adaptive thresholds for other areas. The analysis found that the building performance is within the defined threshold levels throughout the heat wave duration for all criteria. Therefore, the reference dwelling got a maximum attainable score of four points and is rated five-star for thermal resilience during heat waves. The proposed certification scheme is intended as a standardized framework and highlights the need for further revisions in building performance policies and guidelines.

Climate change