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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2015

Incorporating an advanced aerosol activation parameterization into WRF-CAM5: Model evaluation and parameterization intercomparison

Aerosol activation into cloud droplets is an important process that governs aerosol indirect effects. The advanced treatment of aerosol activation by Fountoukis and Nenes (2005) and its recent updates, collectively called the FN series, have been incorporated into a newly developed regional coupled climate-air quality model based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (WRF-CAM5) to simulate aerosol-cloud interactions in both resolved and convective clouds. The model is applied to East Asia for two full years of 2005 and 2010. A comprehensive model evaluation is performed for model predictions of meteorological, radiative, and cloud variables, chemical concentrations, and column mass abundances against satellite data and surface observations from air quality monitoring sites across East Asia. The model performs overall well for major meteorological variables including near-surface temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, precipitation, cloud fraction, precipitable water, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, and column mass abundances of CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , HCHO, and O 3 in terms of both magnitudes and spatial distributions. Larger biases exist in the predictions of surface concentrations of CO and NO x at all sites and SO 2 , O 3 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10 concentrations at some sites, aerosol optical depth, cloud condensation nuclei over ocean, cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), cloud liquid and ice water path, and cloud optical thickness. Compared with the default Abdul-Razzack Ghan (2000) parameterization, simulations with the FN series produce ~107–113% higher CDNC, with half of the difference attributable to the higher aerosol activation fraction by the FN series and the remaining half due to feedbacks in subsequent cloud microphysical processes. With the higher CDNC, the FN series are more skillful in simulating cloud water path, cloud optical thickness, downward shortwave radiation, shortwave cloud forcing, and precipitation. Here, the model evaluation identifies several areas of improvements including emissions and their vertical allocation as well as model formulations such as aerosol formation, cloud droplet nucleation, and ice nucleation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Global Distribution and Climate Forcing of Marine Organic Aerosol - Part 2: Effects on Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing

A series of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a 7-mode Modal Aerosol Model were conducted to assess the changes in cloud microphysical properties and radiative forcing resulting from marine organic aerosols. Model simulations show that the anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) predicted by CAM5 is decreased in absolute magnitude by up to 0.09 Wm{sup -2} (7 %) when marine organic aerosols are included. Changes in the AIF from marine organic aerosols are associated with small global increases in low-level incloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path of 1.3 cm{sup -3} (1.5 %) and 0.22 gm{sup -2} (0.5 %), respectively. Areas especially sensitive to changes in cloud properties due to marine organic aerosol include the Southern Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, and North Atlantic Ocean, all of which are characterized by high marine organic emission rates. As climate models are particularly sensitive to the background aerosol concentration, this small but non-negligible change in the AIF due to marine organic aerosols provides a notable link for ocean-ecosystem marine low-level cloud interactions and may be a candidate for consideration in future earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Are High-redshift Galaxies Hot? Temperature of z > 5 Galaxies and Implications for Their Dust Properties

Recent studies have found a significant evolution and scatter in the relationship between the UV spectral slope ( β {sub UV}) and the infrared excess (IRX; L {sub IR}/ L {sub UV}) at z > 4, suggesting different dust properties of these galaxies. The total far-infrared (FIR) luminosity is key for this analysis, but it is poorly constrained in normal (main-sequence) star-forming z > 5 galaxies, where often only one single FIR point is available. To better inform estimates of the FIR luminosity, we construct a sample of local galaxies and three low-redshift analogues of z > 5 systems. The trends in this sample suggest that normal high-redshift galaxies have a warmer infrared (IR) spectral energy distribution (SED) compared to average z < 4 galaxies that are used as priors in these studies. The blueshifted peak and mid-IR excess emission could be explained by a combination of a larger fraction of metal-poor interstellar medium being optically thin to ultraviolet (UV) light and a stronger UV radiation field due to high star formation densities. Assuming a maximally warm IR SED suggests a 0.6 dex increase in total FIR luminosities, which removes some tension between the dust attenuation models and observations of the IRX− β relation at z > 5. Despite this, some galaxies still fall below the minimum IRX− β relation derived with standard dust cloud models. We propose that radiation pressure in these highly star-forming galaxies causes a spatial offset between dust clouds and young star-forming regions within the lifetime of O/B stars. These offsets change the radiation balance and create viewing-angle effects that can change UV colors at fixed IRX. We provide a modified model that can explain the location of these galaxies on the IRX− β diagram.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Simulations of cloud‐radiation interaction using large‐scale forcing derived from the CINDY/DYNAMO northern sounding array

Abstract The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud‐resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large‐scale forcing data set derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S‐PolKa radar and satellite observations. To accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single‐moment (1M) and double‐moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested. The 1M schemes tend to underestimate radiative flux anomalies in the active phases of the MJO events, while the 2M schemes perform better, but can overestimate radiative flux anomalies. All the tested microphysics schemes exhibit biases in the shapes of the histograms of radiative fluxes and radar reflectivity. Histograms of radiative fluxes and brightness temperature indicate that radiative biases are not evenly distributed; the most significant bias occurs in rainy areas with OLR less than 150 W/m 2 in the 2M schemes. Analysis of simulated radar reflectivities indicates that this radiative flux uncertainty is closely related to the simulated stratiform cloud coverage. Single‐moment schemes underestimate stratiform cloudiness by a factor of 2, whereas 2M schemes simulate much more stratiform cloud.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Sensitivity of CAM5-simulated Arctic clouds and radiation to ice nucleation parameterization

Sensitivity of Arctic clouds and radiation in the Community Atmospheric Model, version 5, to the ice nucleation process is examined by testing a new physically based ice nucleation scheme that links the variation of ice nuclei (IN) number concentration to aerosol properties. The default scheme parameterizes the IN concentration simply as a function of ice supersaturation. The new scheme leads to a significant reduction in simulated IN concentration at all latitudes while changes in cloud amounts and properties are mainly seen at high- and midlatitude storm tracks. In the Arctic, there is a considerable increase in midlevel clouds and a decrease in low-level clouds, which result from the complex interaction among the cloud macrophysics, microphysics, and large-scale environment. The smaller IN concentrations result in an increase in liquid water path and a decrease in ice water path caused by the slowdown of the Bergeron–Findeisen process in mixed-phase clouds. Overall, there is an increase in the optical depth of Arctic clouds, which leads to a stronger cloud radiative forcing (net cooling) at the top of the atmosphere. The comparison with satellite data shows that the new scheme slightly improves low-level cloud simulations over most of the Arctic but produces too many midlevel clouds. Considerable improvements are seen in the simulated low-level clouds and their properties when compared with Arctic ground-based measurements. As a result, issues with the observations and the model–observation comparison in the Arctic region are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatology of Cloud-Top Radiative Cooling in Marine Shallow Clouds

A one-year’s worth of near-global marine shallow single-layer cloud top radiative cooling (CTRC) is derived from a radiative transfer model with inputs from the satellite cloud retrievals and reanalysis sounding. The mean cloud top radiative flux divergence is 61 Wm -2 , decomposed into the longwave and shortwave components of 73 and -11 W m -2 , respectively. Equatorward of 30°N/S, the CTRC is largely a reflection of free-atmospheric specific humidity distribution: a dry atmosphere enhances CTRC by reducing downward thermal radiation. Consequently, the cooling minimizes in the “wet” tropics and maximizes in the “dry” eastern subtropics. Poleward of 30°N/S, the CTRC decreases slightly due to the colder clouds that emit less effectively. Furthermore, the CTRC exhibits distinctive seasonal cycles with stronger cooling in the winter and has amplitudes of order 10–20 Wm -2 in stratocumulus-rich regions. The datasets were used to train a machine-learning model that substantially speeds up the retrieval.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Radiative Properties of Small Clouds: Multi-Scale Observations and Modeling

Warm, liquid clouds and their representation in climate models continue to represent one of the most significant unknowns in climate sensitivity and climate change. Our project combines ARM observations, LES modeling, and satellite imagery to characterize shallow clouds and the role of aerosol in modifying their radiative effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate Sensitivity and the Direct Effect of Carbon Dioxide in a Limited-Area Cloud-Resolving Model

Even in a small domain, it can be prohibitively expensive to run cloud-resolving greenhouse gas warming experiments due to the long equilibration time. Here, a technique is introduced that reduces the computational cost of these experiments by an order of magnitude: instead of fixing the carbon dioxide concentration and equilibrating the sea surface temperature (SST), this technique fixes the SST and equilibrates the carbon dioxide concentration. Using this approach in a cloud-resolving model of radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE), the equilibrated SST is obtained as a continuous function of carbon dioxide concentrations spanning 1 ppmv to nearly 10 000 ppmv, revealing a dramatic increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) at higher temperatures. This increase in ECS is due to both an increase in forcing and a decrease in the feedback parameter. In addition, the technique is used to obtain the direct effects of carbon dioxide (i.e., the rapid adjustments) over a wide range of SSTs. Overall, the direct effect of carbon dioxide offsets a quarter of the increase in precipitation from warming, reduces the shallow cloud fraction by a small amount, and has no impact on convective available potential energy (CAPE).

Romps, David M.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Dust Aerosol Impact on North Africa Climate: A GCM Investigation of Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions Using A-Train Satellite Data

The climatic effects of dust aerosols in North Africa have been investigated using the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). The model includes an efficient and physically based radiation parameterization scheme developed specifically for application to clouds and aerosols. Parameterization of the effective ice particle size in association with the aerosol indirect effect based on cloud and aerosol data retrieved from A-Train satellite observations have been employed in the climate model simulations. Offline simulations reveal that the direct solar, IR, and net forcings by dust aerosols generally increase with increasing aerosol optical depth (AOD). When the dust semi-direct effect is included with the presence of ice clouds, positive IR radiative forcing is enhanced, since ice clouds trap substantial IR radiation, while the positive solar forcing with dust aerosols alone has been changed to negative values due to the strong reflection of solar radiation by clouds, indicating that cloud forcing could exceed aerosol forcing. With the aerosol indirect effect, the net cloud forcing is generally reduced for ice water path (IWP) larger than 20 g m-2. The magnitude of the reduction increases with IWP. AGCM simulations show that the reduced ice crystal mean effective size due to the aerosol first indirect effect result in less OLR and net solar flux at the top of the atmosphere over the cloudy area of the North Africa region because ice clouds with smaller size trap more IR radiation and reflect more solar radiation. The precipitation in the same area, however, increases due to the aerosol indirect effect on ice clouds, corresponding to the enhanced convection as indicated by reduced OLR. The increased precipitation seems to be associated with enhanced ice water contents in this region. The 200 mb radiative heating rate shows more cooling with the aerosol indirect effect since greater cooling is produced at the cloud top with smaller ice crystal size. The 500 mb omega indicates strong upward motion, which, together with the increased cooling effect, results in the increased ice water contents. Adding the aerosol direct effect into the model simulation reduces the precipitation in the normal rainfall band over North Africa, where precipitation is shifted to the south and the northeast produced by the absorption of sunlight and the subsequent heating of the air column by dust particles. As a result, rainfall is drawn further inland to the northeast. This study represents the first attempt to quantify the climate impact of aerosol indirect effect using a GCM in connection with A-train satellite data. The parameterization for the aerosol first indirect effect developed in this study can be readily incorporated for application to any other GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Comparison of Daytime Low-Level Cloud Properties Derived From GOES and ARM SGP Measurements

Large-scale satellite data are critical for both verifying and improving general circulation model parameterizations of clouds and radiation for climate prediction. For reliable application of satellite data sets in cloud processes and climate models, it is important to have a reasonable estimate of the errors in the derived cloud properties. The daytime single-layered low-level cloud properties retrieved by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite system (GOES) are compared with ground-based observations and retrievals over the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility from June 1998 to December 2006. The GOES retrievals are made via the Visible-Infrared Solar-infrared Split-window Technique. They are spatially averaged within a 0.15° × 0.15° box centered on the ARM SGP site, and the ARM surface observations are temporally averaged ±15 min around the GOES scans to produce collocated pairs. Comparisons are made for monthly means, diurnal means, and one-to-one GOES and ARM collocated pairs. GOES T eff is highly correlated with ARM T top cloud temperature, having an R 2 value of 0.75, though GOES exhibits a cold bias. GOES-retrieved τ and liquid water path have very good agreement with ARM retrievals with R 2 s of 0.45 and 0.47, while r e (GOES), on average, is about 2 μm greater than ARM r e . An examination of solar and viewing geometry has shown that GOES-retrieved mean r e and τ values are impacted by solar zenith angle and especially scattering angle, which is not unexpected and needs to be accounted for by users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Earth-system-model evaluation of cloud and precipitation occurrence for supercooled and warm clouds over the Southern Ocean's Macquarie Island

Abstract. Over the remote Southern Ocean (SO), cloud feedbacks contribute substantially to Earth system model (ESM) radiative biases. The evolution of low Southern Ocean clouds (cloud-top heights < ∼ 3 km) is strongly modulated by precipitation and/or evaporation, which act as the primary sink of cloud condensate. Constraining precipitation processes in ESMs requires robust observations suitable for process-level evaluations. A year-long subset (April 2016–March 2017) of ground-based profiling instrumentation deployed during the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) field campaign (54.5∘ S, 158.9∘ E) combines a 95 GHz (W-band) Doppler cloud radar, two lidar ceilometers, and balloon-borne soundings to quantify the occurrence frequency of precipitation from the liquid-phase cloud base. Liquid-based clouds at Macquarie Island precipitate ∼ 70 % of the time, with deeper and colder clouds precipitating more frequently and at a higher intensity compared to thinner and warmer clouds. Supercooled cloud layers precipitate more readily than layers with cloud-top temperatures > 0 ∘C, regardless of the geometric thickness of the layer, and also evaporate more frequently. We further demonstrate an approach to employ these observational constraints for evaluation of a 9-year GISS-ModelE3 ESM simulation. Model output is processed through the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2) radar and lidar instrument simulator with the same instrument specifications as those deployed during MICRE, therefore accounting for instrument sensitivities and ensuring a coherent comparison. Relative to MICRE observations, the ESM produces a smaller cloud occurrence frequency, smaller precipitation occurrence frequency, and greater sub-cloud evaporation. The lower precipitation occurrence frequency by the ESM relative to MICRE contrasts with numerous studies that suggest a ubiquitous bias by ESMs to precipitate too frequently over the SO when compared with satellite-based observations, likely owing to sensitivity limitations of spaceborne instrumentation and different sampling methodologies for ground- versus space-based observations. Despite these deficiencies, the ESM reproduces the observed tendency for deeper and colder clouds to precipitate more frequently and at a higher intensity. The ESM also reproduces specific cloud regimes, including near-surface clouds that account for ∼ 25 % of liquid-based clouds during MICRE and optically thin, non-precipitating clouds that account for ∼ 27 % of clouds with bases higher than 250 m. We suggest that the demonstrated framework, which merges observations with appropriately constrained model output, is a valuable approach to evaluate processes responsible for cloud radiative feedbacks in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Physics-Informed Persistence Models for Simultaneously Forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI

Observation-based statistical models have been widely used in forecasting solar energy; however, existing models often lack a clear relation to physics and are limited largely to global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts over relatively short time horizons (< 1 hour). Incorporating physics into observation-based models, increasing forecast time horizons and developing a model system for forecasting not only GHI but also direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) remain challenging, especially under cloudy conditions because of complex cloud-radiation interactions. This work attempts to address these challenges by developing a hierarchy of four new physics-informed persistence models that can be used to simultaneously forecast GHI, DNI and DHI. The decade-long measurements (1998 to 2014) at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)'s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site are used to evaluate the performance of the new models. Overall, the results show that the new physics-informed forecast models generally outperform the simple and smart persistence models, and improve the forecast accuracy at lead times from 1.25 hours up to 6 hours. Further analysis reveals that the forecast error is highly related to the error and temporal variability of the assumed cloud predictor. The best model for forecasting different radiative components can be explained by the relationship between solar irradiances and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The response of the Amazon ecosystem to the photosynthetically active radiation fields: integrating impacts of biomass burning aerosol and clouds in the NASA GEOS Earth system model

The Amazon experiences fires every year, and the resulting biomass burning aerosols, together with cloud particles, influence the penetration of sunlight through the atmosphere, increasing the ratio of diffuse to direct photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) reaching the vegetation canopy and thereby potentially increasing ecosystem productivity. In this study, we use the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model with coupled aerosol, cloud, radiation, and ecosystem modules to investigate the impact of Amazon biomass burning aerosols on ecosystem productivity, as well as the role of the Amazon's clouds in tempering this impact. The study focuses on a 7-year period (2010–2016) during which the Amazon experienced a variety of dynamic environments (e.g., La Niña, normal years, and El Niño). The direct radiative impact of biomass burning aerosols on ecosystem productivity – called here the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect – is found to increase Amazonian gross primary production (GPP) by 2.6 % via a 3.8 % increase in diffuse PAR (DFPAR) despite a 5.4 % decrease in direct PAR (DRPAR) on multiyear average during burning seasons. On a monthly basis, this increase in GPP can be as large as 9.9 % (occurring in August 2010). Consequently, the net primary production (NPP) in the Amazon is increased by 1.5 %, or ~92 Tg C yr -1 – equivalent to ~37 % of the average carbon lost due to Amazon fires over the 7 years considered. Clouds, however, strongly regulate the effectiveness of the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect. The efficiency of this fertilization effect is the highest in cloud-free conditions and linearly decreases with increasing cloud amount until the cloud fraction reaches ~0.8, at which point the aerosol-influenced light changes from being a stimulator to an inhibitor of plant growth. Nevertheless, interannual changes in the overall strength of the aerosol diffuse radiation fertilization effect are primarily controlled by the large interannual changes in biomass burning aerosols rather than by changes in cloudiness during the studied period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Background Conditions Influence the Estimated Cloud Radiative Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions From Different Source Regions

Abstract Using the Community Earth System Model, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3, we investigate the cloud radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols emitted from different source regions and global shipping. We also analyze aerosol burdens, cloud condensation nuclei concentration, liquid water path, and ice water path. Due to transboundary transport and sublinearity in the response of clouds to aerosols, the cloud radiative effects of emissions from a given source region are influenced by emissions from other source regions. For example, the shortwave cloud radiative effect of shipping is −0.39 ± 0.03 W/m 2 when other anthropogenic emissions sources are present (the “present‐day background” assumption) compared with −0.60 ± 0.03 W/m 2 when other anthropogenic emissions sources are absent (the “natural background” assumption). In general, the cloud radiative effects are weaker if present‐day background conditions are assumed compared with if natural background conditions are assumed. Assumptions about background conditions should be carefully considered when investigating the climate impacts of aerosol emissions from a given source region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Important ice processes are missed by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in Southern Ocean mixed–phase clouds: Bridging SOCRATES observations to model developments

Global climate models (GCMs) are challenged by difficulties in simulating cloud phase and cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean (SO). Some of the new generation GCMs predict too much liquid and too little ice in mixed-phase clouds. This misrepresentation of cloud phase in GCMs results in weaker negative cloud feedback over the SO and a higher climate sensitivity. Based on a model comparison with observational data obtained during the Southern Ocean Cloud Radiation and Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES), this study addresses a key uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) related to cloud phase, namely ice formation in pristine remote SO clouds. It is found that sea spray organic aerosols (SSOA) are the most important type of ice nucleating particles (INPs) over the SO with concentrations one order of magnitude higher than those of dust INPs based on measurements and CESM2 simulations. Secondary ice production (SIP) which includes riming splintering, rain droplet shattering, and ice-ice collisional fragmentation as implemented in CESM2 is the dominant ice production process in moderately cold clouds with cloud temperatures greater than –20°C. SIP enhances the in-cloud ice number concentrations (Ni) by 1-3 orders of magnitude and predicts more mixed-phase (with percentage occurrence increased from 15% to 21%), in better agreement with the observations. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accurately representing cloud phase over the pristine remote SO by considering the ice nucleation of SSOA and SIP processes, which are currently missing in most GCM cloud microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tropical High Cloud Feedback Relationships to Climate Sensitivity

Clouds constitute a large portion of uncertainty in predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). While low cloud feedbacks have been the focus of intermodel studies due to their high variability among global climate models, tropical high cloud feedbacks also exhibit considerable uncertainty. Here, we apply the cloud radiative kernel technique of Zelinka et al. to 22 models across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles to survey tropical high cloud feedbacks and analyze their relationship to ECS. We find that the net high cloud feedback and its altitude and optical depth feedback components are significantly positively correlated with ECS in the tropical mean. On the other hand, the tropical mean high cloud amount feedback is not correlated with ECS. These relationships are most pronounced outside of areas of strong climatological ascent, suggesting the importance of thin cirrus feedbacks. Finally, we explore connections between high cloud feedbacks, climate sensitivity, and mean state high cloud properties. In general, high ECS models are cloudier in the upper troposphere but have a thinner high cloud population. Furthermore, we find that having more thin cirrus in the mean state relates to more positive high cloud altitude and optical depth feedbacks, and it either amplifies or dampens the high cloud amount feedback depending on the large-scale dynamical regime (amplifying in descent and dampening in ascent). In summary, our analysis highlights the importance of tropical high cloud feedbacks for driving intermodel spread in ECS and suggests that mean state high cloud characteristics might provide a unique opportunity for observationally constraining high cloud feedbacks.

atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2024

Linear Time-Invariant Models of a Large Cumulus Ensemble

Abstract Methods in system identification are used to obtain linear time-invariant state-space models that describe how horizontal averages of temperature and humidity of a large cumulus ensemble evolve with time under small forcing. The cumulus ensemble studied here is simulated with cloud-system-resolving models in radiative–convective equilibrium. The identified models extend steady-state linear response functions used in past studies and provide accurate descriptions of the transfer function, the noise model, and the behavior of cumulus convection when coupled with two-dimensional gravity waves. A novel procedure is developed to convert the state-space models into an interpretable form, which is used to elucidate and quantify memory in cumulus convection. The linear problem studied here serves as a useful reference point for more general efforts to obtain data-driven and interpretable parameterizations of cumulus convection.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗