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Hero Carbonsafe Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group: Technical Program Overview

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Hermiston is located near the center of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), which is one of the largest basalt flows in the US. Basalt CO2 storage has potential advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. widespread geographic distribution and, 5. large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. For locations such as the Pacific Northwest (PNW), Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, whose localities are isolated from large sedimentary basins offering conventional saline storage options, basalt may offer the only feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, mineralization/basalt storage still has many uncertainties, as there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt. There are significant uncertainties hindering the effective implementation of carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) in basalt. These include the lack of proven storage capacities, challenges in methodologies for modeling the area of review in igneous formations, limited understanding of mineralization kinetics and timing, and uncertainties in injectivity. Additionally, the domestic availability of specialized services and drilling expertise is constrained, and existing CCUS permitting and regulatory frameworks, originally developed for conventional saline reservoirs, may not adequately address the unique requirements of basalt systems. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address major research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts of the CRBG, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Emissions Relationships Among Western Forest Fire Plumes: II. Plume Typing for Sources of Ozone and Aerosol Absorption

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to largeerrors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire backgroundCO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fireplume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASAs SEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a MixedEffects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like theNormalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequentialobservations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate asimpler consensus technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burnedusing Cburn Ctot added to the fire plume, where Ctot (CO2 + CO). Mixed-effectsregression can estimate pre-fire background values of Ctot (indexed byobservation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individualspecies i, xi (Cburn )i,j., MERET and consensus require more than twoemissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO orCH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission.We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clustersof variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF).While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types.Particulate properties (bscat, babs, SSA, AE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated.Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone productionin plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogenas evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from veryintense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOydelta-HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps theseplumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumesexhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics.

ozone↗

The Effect of Europa and Enceladus Analog Seawater Composition on Isotopic Measurements of Volatile CO2

Science goals for icy ocean worlds missions include characterizing the chemical compositionof the surface and interior using remote sensing and in situ techniques. The next class of flightmass spectrometers for these missions will obtain compositional identifications and isotope ratiomeasurements of volatiles evolved from the ice surface (exosphere) and plumes. These massspectra will be combined with data from other flight instruments to infer the composition of theinterior from volatiles. To ensure accurate interpretation of these measurements, it is critical toverify whether the fundamental assumption that volatiles observed in icy ocean world exospheresor plumes will be a direct reflection of the sub-ice ocean. The present study evaluates whether isotopologues from an initial CO2 gas fractionate by interacting with seawater (brine) of varyingsalt composition and concentration. δ13CCO2 are affected by the pH of the brine and subsequentspeciation of {CO2}, where {CO2} represents the combination of CO2, H2CO3, HCO3-, and CO32-.{CO2} for low pH brines hypothesized for Europa will preferentially speciate as CO2. Analyzedδ13CCO2 for low pH brines are within error of the original δ13CCO2, demonstrating that volatile CO2in a low pH system will be a direct reflection of the original CO2. However, Europa’s radiativeenvironment and rapid depressurization due to plume ejection may impose fractionation effects.In contrast, high pH systems relevant to Enceladus or a more alkaline Europa are expected toform all carbonate species, while favoring speciation as HCO3-. High pH brines in theseexperiments include both an original CO2 gas and an isotopically distinct HCO3- (from NaHCO3salt). These alkaline experiments demonstrate that δ13CCO2 values are highly variable, and dependon the concentration of the dominant carbonate species, (Na)HCO3-. Mass balance estimatesindicate that measured δ13CCO2 is a thermodynamically predictable mixture of both carbonsources, suggesting that measurements of δ13C at Enceladus would directly reflect of the sourcesof CO2 and carbonate buffering in the ocean. δ18O measurements for CO2 interacting with KCland MgCl2 follow established models for δ18O-ionic strength. CO2 interacting with MgSO4,Na2SO4, and NaCl demonstrate an offset from established δ18O-ionic strength models dependingon the concentration of initial CO2. These results suggest that current predictive models for δ18Oin brines need to be resolved for changing concentrations of CO2

Ocean Worlds↗

Interpretable Machine Learning Models for Autonomous Characterization of Analogue Ocean World Seawater Chemistry and Biosignature Potential Using Isotope Ratio Data

Background: Future missions to ocean worlds, such as Enceladus and Europa, will attempt to characterize the subsurface seawater chemistry and assess the potential for life. Such missions will be equipped with capabilities to precisely measure volatile isotopes in plumes, atmospheres, and exospheres. Motivation: While large isotopic fractionations can indicate a biological source, there are signatures resulting from abiotic geochemical processes that mimic isotopic biosignatures. While machine learning (ML) has the potential to disentangle competing effects and biotic mimicry, high-dimensional isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) data is likely to contain noise/irrelevant features and involve complex statistical interactions that make human inference and interpretation difficult. Further, ML predictions with as far-reaching implications as an extraterrestrial biosignature on an ocean world requires the use of interpretable models (i.e., not “black box” models) with physically and mathematically meaningful feature spaces along with false positive diagnostics. Methods: We use volatile CO2 IRMS data of analogue ocean world seawaters to validate an ML approach to provide biogeochemical context for biosignature detection. We employ a feature selection method called nearest-neighbor projected distance regression (NPDR) that detects statistical interactions and helps elucidate the mechanisms of the Random Forest classification models. Results: We train and validate predictive ML models on volatile CO2 IRMS data of analogue ocean world seawaters to predict major salt components (e.g., MgSO4, NaHCO3), pH, ionic strength, and the presence of biosignatures. Features derived from IRMS measurements are augmented with extracted time-series features. Our results show high test accuracy and interpretability, which is increased by interaction network visualization, sample-wise variable importance scores, and single-sample class probability estimates. We demonstrate an ML mission software solution that triggers autonomous data transmission and biogeochemical sample prediction.

geochemistry↗

Enceladus: An Active Cryovolcanic Satellite

Enceladus is one of the most remarkable satellites in the solar system, as revealed by Cassini's detection of active plumes erupting from warm fractures near its south pole. This discovery makes Enceladus the only icy satellite known to exhibit ongoing internally driven geological activity. The activity is presumably powered by tidal heating maintained by Enceladus 2:1 mean-motion resonance with Dione, but many questions remain. For instance, it appears difficult or impossible to maintain the currently observed radiated power (probably at least 6 GW) in steady state. It is also not clear how Enceladus first entered its current self-maintaining warm and dissipative state initial heating from non-tidal sources is probably required. There are also many unanswered questions about Enceladus interior. The silicate fraction inferred from its density of 1.68 g per cubic centimeter is probably differentiated into a core, though we have only indirect evidence for differentiation. Above the core there is probably a global or regional water layer, inferred from several models of tidal heating, and an ice shell thick enough to support the ~1 kilometer amplitude topography seen on Enceladus. It is possible that dissipation is largely localized beneath the south polar region. Enceladus surface geology, ranging from moderately cratered terrain to the virtually crater-free active south polar region, is highly diverse, tectonically complex, and remarkably symmetrical about the rotation axis and the direction to Saturn. South polar activity is concentrated along the four tiger stripe fractures, which radiate heat at temperatures up to at least 167 K and are the source of multiple plumes ejecting ~200 kilograms per second of H2O vapor along with significant N2 (or C2H4), CO2, CH4, NH3, and higher-mass hydrocarbons. The escaping gas maintains Saturn's neutral gas torus, and the plumes also eject a large number of micron-sized H2O ice grains that populate Saturn's E-ring. The mechanism that powers the plumes is not well understood, and whether liquid water is involved is a subject of active debate (but likely nonetheless). Enceladus provides a promising potential habitat for life in the outer solar system, and the active plumes allow the unique opportunity for direct sampling of that zone. Enceladus is thus a prime target for Cassini's continued exploration of the Saturn system, and will be a tempting target for future missions.

Spencer, J. R.↗

Future Plans in US Flight Missions: Using Laser Remote Sensing for Climate Science Observations

Laser Remote Sensing provides critical climate science observations necessary to better measure, understand, model and predict the Earth's water, carbon and energy cycles. Laser Remote Sensing applications for studying the Earth and other planets include three dimensional mapping of surface topography, canopy height and density, atmospheric measurement of aerosols and trace gases, plume and cloud profiles, and winds measurements. Beyond the science, data from these missions will produce new data products and applications for a multitude of end users including policy makers and urban planners on local, national and global levels. NASA Missions in formulation including Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat 2) and the Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI), and future missions such as the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS), will incorporate the next generation of LIght Detection And Ranging (lidar) instruments to measure changes in the surface elevation of the ice, quantify ecosystem carbon storage due to biomass and its change, and provide critical data on CO 2 in the atmosphere. Goddard's plans for these instruments and potential uses for the resulting data are described below. For the ICESat 2 mission, GSFC is developing a micro-pulse multi-beam lidar. This instrument will provide improved ice elevation estimates over high slope and very rough areas and result in improved lead detection for sea ice estimates. Data about the sea ice and predictions related to sea levels will continue to help inform urban planners as the changes in the polar ice accelerate. DESDynI is planned to be launched in 2017 and includes both lidar and radar instruments. GSFC is responsible for the lidar portion of the DESDynI mission and is developing a scanning laser altimeter that will measure the Earth's topography, the structure of tree canopies, biomass, and surface roughness. The DESDynI lidar will also measure and predict the response of ice masses to climate change and impact on sea level. Data from the lidar will ultimately be fused with radar data products with heretofore unseen results and applications. The 3-D structure of forests is critical to understanding the impact of land use and associated landscape changes on the habitat of life forms and consequently on their biodiversity. Lidar instruments are also under development to measure trace gases in the atmospheric such as CO2 and methane. GSFC is developing an active measurement approach to determine the CO2 column density and surface pressure for the proposed ASCENDS mission. The objective of this approach is to produce data on the amounts of anthropogenic and organic CO2 in the atmosphere with sufficient accuracy to meet the needs of target users including state, federal and international users as well as policy-related legislative, regulatory, and voluntary carbon-related management groups local to international interests. In summary, NASA will continue to rely on laser remote sensing for critical climate science observations and is committed to the development of the next generation of lidar instruments for a range of applications.

Callahan, Lisa W.↗

Emissions Relationships Among Western Forest Fire Plumes: I. Emission Factors Free from Mixing Errors

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to largeerrors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire backgroundCO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fireplume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASAsSEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a MixedEffects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like theNormalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequentialobservations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate asimpler consensus technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burnedusing C burn = Δ Ctot added to the fire plume, where ≈ Ctot (CO2 + CO). Mixed-effectsregression can estimate pre-fire background values of Ctot (indexed byobservation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individual species i, δέλτα-xi (Cburn )i,j., MERET and consensus require more than twoemissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO orCH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission.We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clustersof variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF).While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types.Particulate properties (bscat, babs, SSA, AÅE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated.Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone productionin plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogenas evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from veryintense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOydelta-HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps theseplumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumesexhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics.

plumes↗

Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9, Jupiter, and Impact Shock Chemistry

Four years ago this month, a hitherto unknown comet in loose orbit around Jupiter passed so near the giant planet that it was torn apart into 20 fragments by tides. One orbit later, two years ago this month, the fragments of doomed comet P/Shoemaker Levy (SL9) fell into Jupiter. The enormous energies of these impacts (the largest fragments were nearly 1 km across and, hitting at 60 km/s, released some 2-4 x 10(exp 27) ergs) produced enormous explosions. Several of the ejecta plumes were imaged towering 3000 km above Jupiter's limb. The heat released when the plumes fell was considerable and easily observed on Earth. The impacts produced strong shocks, both promptly at the impact site and again, later, and over thousands of kilometers, when the ejecta plume reentered the atmosphere. The focus of this talk will be to discuss what the SL9 impacts taught us about impact shock chemistry - the processes, the ingredients, the results - and what inferences we may draw for impacts on early Earth. Shock chemistry generates a suite of molecules not usually seen on Jupiter. The most surprising report was of a huge amount of diatomic sulfur S2 at the site of the G impact. Other unusual products include CS, CS2, OCS, H2S, SO2, HCN, CO, and H2O; although H2S and H2O are doubtless abundant below the visible clouds. Hot or enhanced CH4 and NH3 were also detected. A general rule of shock chemistry is that CO forms until either C or O is exhausted. If O greater than C, the other products are oxidized, and excess O goes to H2O. If C greater than O, the other products are reduced, and excess C goes to HCN, C2H2, and a wide variety of more complicated organics. Ultimately, given time, the carbon would react all the way to graphite, but in practice the reactions are incomplete. The dark ejecta debris were probably composed in part of carbonaceous particles generated by the shocks. In a sense, the SL9 impacts performed the famous Miller-Urey experiment on a grand scale, with one result being the production of a lot of complex brown organic solids (called "tholins"). We use, a straightforward chemical kinetics model for the H, N, C, O, S system to follow the nonequilibrium chemistry behind the shocks. The model traces the evolving chemical composition of a parcel of gas by directly integrating the web of chemical reactions. Pressure and temperature histories of the parcels are patterned after those calculated by numerical hydrodynamic simulations of the ejecta plume. A given plume parcel is generally shocked twice; t.e a parcel shocked near the impact site is ejected at high velocity and is shocked again when it reenters the atmosphere. The final state of the gas depends mostly on the second shock, provided that the latter is hot enough. The chemical evidence is ambiguous, but most indications are that C greater than O in the shocked, reacting gas. Telltale signatures of abundant oxygen - SO2, SO, CO2, O2 - were not seen, while signatures of abundant carbon - CS, CS2, and HCN - were. On the other hand, abundant H2O would appear to require O greater than C, and two other observed sulfur species, S2 and OCS, appear to form more easily in a somewhat oxidized gas, presumable vaporized from the comet itself. Since on general principles one expects the -comet to have had a more-or-less cosmic composition, i.e. O greater than C, the production of CS, CS2, and HCN probably requires C greater than O in the shocked jovian air. This in turn implies that even the largest fragments released the bulk of their energy above the jovian water table, in all likelihood above 5 bars . There is no evidence in favor of the proposition that a significant amount of wet jovian air was shocked strongly enough to coax water to react; i.e. wet jovian air saw only temperatures significantly below 2000 K.

Zahnle, Kevin↗

Radiolytic Cryovolcanism Revisited

Location of Enceladus within the inner magnetosphere of Saturn makes it likely that energetic electron irradiation, ion-neutral chemistry of the emergent cryovolcanic plume gas, and resultant radiolytic modification of surface ice composition could impact long-term evolution of molecular composition in the global ice crust. Thermally-driven convection of ice in the south polar terrain would bring radiolytic oxidant products into contact with subsurface reservoirs of primordial organics on million-year time scales. The chemical reactions leading to CO2 gas production as a primary gas-piston driver of cryovolcanic activity would be exponentially elevated in the warm-ice margins of a heated fluid. The fluid temperature is typically assumed to be below 273 K but could be much higher in a gas-pressurized deep subsurface environment. The Perrier Ocean model has demonstrated how a CO2-loaded fluid could account for the observed jets, while the heat content of the fluid arising from the moon's deeper interior could support high levels of chemical reactivity in the thermal margins. Since mass loss and tidal dissipation arguments do not support continuous activity over billions of years, the activity is likely very episodic so that even low-level energy sources including irradiation-driven radiolysis of surface ices could substantially contribute to the chemical dynamics of the activity apparently now in high phase. A multi-phase thermochemical model, and supporting laboratory measurements of temperature-dependent reaction rates, are needed to investigate these potentially complex processes.

Cooper, John F.↗

Characterization of Wildfire Emissions in California: Analysis of Airborne Measurements of Trace Gases from 2013 to 2016

Biomass burning, which includes wildfires, prescribed, and agricultural fires, is an important source of trace gases and particles, and can influence air quality on a local, regional, and global scale. Biomass burning emissions are an important source of several key trace gases including carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). With the threat of wildfire events increasing due to changes in land use, increasing population, and climate change, the importance of characterizing wildfire emissions is vital. In this work we characterize trace gas emissions from 9 wildfire events in California between 2013 – 2016, in some cases with multiple measurements performed during different burn periods of a specific wildfire. During this period airborne measurements of CO2, CH4, water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), and formaldehyde (HCHO) were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX). Located in the Bay Area of California, AJAX is a joint effort between NASA Ames Research Center and H211, LLC. AJAX makes in-situ airborne measurements of trace gases 2-4 times per month, resulting in 229 flights to date since 2011. Results presented include emission ratios (ER) of trace gases measured by AJAX during fire flights, and comparisons of ERs are made for each fire, which differ in time, location, burning intensity, and fuel type. We also use our airborne measurements to compare with photochemical grid model results to assess model approximations of plume transport and chemical evolution from select wildfires.

Parworth, Caroline L.↗

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

AoR↗

Dynamics of the Impacts

The SL9 impacts are best known by their plumes, several of which were imaged towering 3000 km above Jupiter's limb. The heat released when they fen back on the atmosphere produced the famous infrared main events. The reentry shock was observed directly in CO emission and indirectly through thermally glowing dust. The relatively low color temperature of the latter implies that most of the energy released on reentry was radiated. If so, the R impact released some 3 x 10(exp 26) ergs, and the larger L, K, and G impacts as much as 3 x 10(exp 27) ergs. These estimates agree well with impact energies deduced from tidal disruption computations. The duration of the infrared events measures time aloft and hence provides a second measure of plume height. These indicate that plume height was only weakly dependent on impact energy. Evidently all the plumes were launched at roughly 10-13 km/s. Using a semi-analytic model for the deceleration, disintegration, and destruction of intruding bodies by an ever-vigilant atmosphere, we find that similar plume heights is a direct consequence of smaller impactors exploding at higher altitudes, in such a way that the different explosions were geometrically similar. We then compare the predictions of our model to the Venerian cratering record, which provides a good statistical test of impact deceleration by a thick atmosphere. Chemistry should have provided an independent measure of explosion altitude: abundant shock-generated CS, CS2 and HCN indicates a source in dry jovian air, above the putative water clouds. However, the Galileo Probe results seem to imply that we should expect no more. Observed water and S2 are consistent with a somewhat oxidized gas (presumably the comet itself), but the absence of SO2 and CO2 shows that conditions were neither too oxidizing nor the shocks too hot.

Zahnle, Kevin↗

CCUS Plume Monitoring: Verifying Surface CSEM Measurements to Log Scale Available

Conference presentation at Society of Petrophysicists and Well Log Analysts (SPWLA) 64th Annual Symposium, Lake Conroe, Texas, June 10–14, 2023. In carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) monitoring, dynamic plume monitoring and reservoir seal are key issues. Plume monitoring is best addressed with electromagnetics (sensitive to the resistivity contrast) and reservoir leakage with microseismics. A case history from North Dakota illustrates how we can tie surface-controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) measurements to the three-dimensional (3D) anisotropic models derived from the available logs. This allows us to certify baseline measurements within the context of the borehole information.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Biospheric effects of a large extraterrestrial impact: Case study of the cretaceous/tertiary boundary crater

The Chicxulub impact crater, buried in the Yucatan carbonate platform in Mexico, is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. A recently discovered Chicxulub ejecta deposit in Belize contains evidence of carbonate vaporization and precipitation from the vapor plume. Sulfate clasts are almost absent in the Belize ejecta, but are abundant in the coarse ejecta near the crater rim, hwich may reflect the greater abundance of sulfates deep in the target section. The absence of sulfate precipitates in Belize may indicate that most of the vaporized sulfur was deposited in the upper atmosphere. Hydrocode modeling of the impact indicates that between 0.4 to 7.0 x 10(exp 17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact in sulfates. Laser experiments indicate that SO2, SO3, and SO4 are produced, and that complex chemical reactions between plume constituents occur during condensation. The sulfur released as SO3 or SO4 converted rapidly into H2HO4 aerosol. A radiative transfer model coupled with a model of coagulation predicts that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if it contained impurities. The sulfur released as SO2 converted to aerosol slowly due to the rate limiting oxidation of SO2. Radiative transfer calculations combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20 percent of normal for a period of 8-13 years. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 Wm(exp -2), which far exceeded the +8 Wm(exp -2) greenhouse warming caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.

Pope, Kevin O.↗

Measurements of momentum transfer coefficients for H2, N2, CO and CO2 incident upon spacecraft surfaces

Measurements of momentum transfer coefficients were made for gas-surface interactions between the Space Shuttle reaction control jet plume gases and the solar panel array materials to be used on the International Space Station. Actual conditions were simulated using a supersonic nozzle source to produce beams of the gases with approximately the same average velocities as the gases have in the Shuttle plumes. Samples of the actual solar panel materials were mounted on a torsion balance that was used to measure the force exerted on the surfaces by the molecular beams. Measurements were made with H2, N2, CO, and CO2 incident upon the solar array material, Kapton, SiO2-coated Kapton, and Z93-coated Al. The measurements showed that molecules scatter from the surfaces more specularly as the angle of incidence increases and that scattering behavior has a strong dependence upon both the incident gas and velocity. These results show that for some technical surfaces the simple assumption of diffuse scattering with complete thermal accommodation is entirely inadequate. It is clear that additional measurements are required to produce models that more accurately describe the gas-surface interactions encountered in rarefied flow regimes.

Cook, S. R.↗

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An assessment of ocean alkalinity enhancement using aqueous hydroxides: kinetics, efficiency, and precipitation thresholds

Abstract. Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a promising approach to marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) that leverages the large surface area and carbon storage capacity of the oceans to sequester atmospheric CO2 as dissolved bicarbonate (HCO3-). One OAE method involves the conversion of salt in seawater into aqueous alkalinity (NaOH), which is returned to the ocean. The resulting increase in seawater pH and alkalinity causes a shift in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) speciation toward carbonate and a decrease in the surface ocean pCO2. The shift in the pCO2 results in enhanced uptake of atmospheric CO2 by the seawater due to gas exchange. In this study, we systematically test the efficiency of CO2 uptake in seawater treated with NaOH at aquarium (15 L) and tank (6000 L) scales to establish operational boundaries for safety and efficiency in advance of scaling up to field experiments. CO2 equilibration occurred on the order of weeks to months, depending on circulation, air forcing, and air bubbling conditions within the test tanks. An increase of ∼0.7–0.9 mol DIC per mol added alkalinity (in the form of NaOH) was observed through analysis of seawater bottle samples and pH sensor data, consistent with the value expected given the values of the carbonate system equilibrium calculations for the range of salinities and temperatures tested. Mineral precipitation occurred when the bulk seawater pH exceeded 10.0 and Ωaragonite exceeded 30.0. This precipitation was dominated by Mg(OH)2 over hours to 1 d before shifting to CaCO3,aragonite precipitation. These data, combined with models of the dilution and advection of alkaline plumes, will allow the estimation of the amount of carbon dioxide removal expected from OAE pilot studies. Future experiments should better approximate field conditions including sediment interactions, biological activity, ocean circulation, air–sea gas exchange rates, and mixing zone dynamics.

Ringham, Mallory C. (ORCID:0000000348020185)↗

Measurement of Momentum Transfer Coefficients for H2, N2, CO, and CO2 Incident Upon Spacecraft Surfaces

Measurements of momentum transfer coefficients were made for gas-surface interactions between the Space Shuttle reaction control jet plume gases and the solar panel array materials to be used on the International Space Station. Actual conditions were simulated using a supersonic nozzle source to produce beams of the gases with approximately the same average velocities as the gases have in the Shuttle plumes. Samples of the actual solar panel materials were mounted on a torsion balance that was used to measure the force exerted on the surfaces by the molecular beams. Measurements were made with H2, N2, CO, and CO2 incident upon the solar array material, Kapton, SiO2-coated Kapton, and Z93-coated Al. The measurements showed that molecules scatter from the surfaces more specularly as the angle of incidence increases and that the scattering behavior has a strong dependence upon both the incident gas and velocity. These results show that for some technical surfaces the simple assumption of diffuse scattering with complete thermal accommodation is entirely inadequate. It is clear that additional measurements are required to produce models that more accurately describe the gas-surface interactions encountered in rarefied flow regimes.

Cook, Steven R.↗