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Biofuels Production and Development in the United States

Addressing transportation emissions will require a combination of policy interventions, technological innovations, and behavioral changes. To decrease transportation-related carbon emissions, we recommend transitioning to cleaner and more efficient transport, expanding public transportation, and promoting sustainable urban planning. Transitioning to biofuels in the U.S. transportation sector presents a host of environmental, economic, and strategic advantages. Environmentally, biofuels offer a promising avenue for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to conventional fossil fuels. Biofuels produce fewer harmful emissions, such as particulate matter and nitrogen oxides, compared to conventional fuels, thereby improving local air quality, and reducing health risks associated with air pollution. The U.S. government issued a "Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge" to promote the development of SAF and address the decarbonization of commercial aviation. The targets are to expand current domestic SAF production to 3 billion gallons per year by 2030, and then to 35 billion gallons by 2050, while achieving life cycle GHG reduction of at least 50% relative to fossil Jet A. The United States' biofuel production capacity rose to 23.8 billion gallons per year in 2023, a growth of more than 1.7 billion gallons since 2022. Ethanol nameplate capacity has reached 17.8 billion gallons per year since 2023, the ethanol production is 15.6 billion gallons in 2023 as capped by EPA regulation. Biodiesel production capacity stands at 2.1 billion gallons, and renewable diesel capacity is now 3.9 billion gallons. This newsletter keeps you informed on the state of biofuels in the United States, policy and regulations, technology advancements, and environmental and social impacts.

biodiesel↗

How Do Different Knowledge Frameworks Help Us Learn From Aviation Line Observations?

Human performance includes actions that increase safety, as well as actions that can reduce safety. Ensuring safety in complex dynamic operations like commercial aviation depends on the ability to institute appropriate responses based on what is learned from flightcrew performance and the contexts in which it occurs. To do this systemically at the organization level requires collecting data on flightcrew performance, developing effective approaches to analyzing those data, and understanding how to translate what has been learned into policies, procedures, and practice. Systematic observation of front-line operators is a vital source of human performance data. Much has been learned from such observations, including methodological principles. Most observations have been based on a framework focused on managing safety challenges and the ensuing unsafe events. A complementary perspective focuses on flexibility and actions that promote continued safe and effective operation. We consider lessons learned about observational methods from an established framework focused on undesired actions and how these might be extended for a framework focused on desired actions.

safety↗

The Effects of Ultra-Long-Range Flights on the Alertness and Performance of Aviators

This investigation assessed the impact of ultra-long-range (ULR) simulator flights, departing either in the morning or late evening, on the alertness and performance of 17 commercial aviators. Immediately prior to and throughout each flight, alertness and performance were assessed via a computerized test of sustained attention, subjective questionnaires, and "hand-flying" tasks. There were fatigue-related effects on the majority of assessments, and the nature of these effects was consistent across the vigilance and self-report measures. However, the operational "hand-flying" manuevers proved insensitive to the impact of fatigue probably due to procedural factors. Regardless, the results of the present study suggest that fatigue associated with prolonged wakefulness in ULR flight operations will interact with flight schedules due to circadian and homeostatic influences. In this study, the pilots departing at night were at a greater initial disadvantage (during cruise) than pilots who departed earlier in the day; whereas those who departed earlier tended to be most impaired towards the end of the flight prior to landing. In real-world operations, airlines should consider the ramifications of flight schedules and what is known about human sleep and circadian rhythms to optimize safety.

Caldwell, John A.↗

Frequency of Specific Categories of Aviation Accidents and Incidents During 2001-2010

The purpose of this study was to determine the types of accidents or incidents that are most important to the aviation safety risk. All accidents and incidents from 2001-2010 were assigned occurrence categories based on the taxonomy developed by the Commercial Aviation Safety Team/International Civil Aviation Organization (CAST/ICAO) Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT). The most frequently recorded categories were selected within each of five metrics: total accidents, fatal accidents, total injuries, fatal injuries and total incidents. This analysis was done separately for events within Part 121, Scheduled Part 135, Non-Scheduled Part 135 and Part 91. Combining those five sets of categories resulted in groups of between seven and eleven occurrence categories, depending on the flight operation. These groups represent 65-85% of all accidents and 68-81% of incidents.

Evans, Joni K.↗

Search and Rescue Operations of Aircraft in Africa: Some Compelling Issues

The world aviation community has felt the compelling need for a well-coordinated global programme for search and rescue operations of aircraft ever since commercial aviation was regulated in 1944. Guidelines and plans of action for search and rescue have therefore been considered critical in the event of an aircraft accident. This fact is eminently brought to bear in the continental regions of Africa and South America in particular, where vast expanses of land are still uninhabited or sparsely populated and controlled flight into terrain (CFIT-where an aircraft may crash on land while still under the control of technical crew) is a common occurrence. There are numerous guidelines that have been adopted under the umbrella of the International Civil Aviation Organization which are already in place for the provision of search and rescue operations pertaining to aircraft. However, when an accident occurs in the territory of a State, there are sensitivities involving the State in which the aircraft concerned was registered and issues of sovereignty which have to be considered. Additionally. issues such as the voluntary nature of the search and rescue services offered. confidentiality, timeliness of such operations, fairness and uniformity all play a critical role. This article addresses the issue of search and rescue operations in Africa and examines in some detail where the world aviation community is right now and where it is headed in this important field of human endeavour.

Abeyratne, Ruwantissa I. R.↗

The 1991 International Conference on Aging Aircraft and Structural Airworthiness

Civil aviation serves a strategic interest to the United States. Thus, the need to maintain a high standard of aviation safety is axiomatic. While the industry has witnessed phenomenal growth in the past two decades, the proportion of aging aircraft in air carrier fleets has been ever increasing-a trend that is projected to continue. Certain events which occurred in 1988 and previous years and public concern about the safety of the high time aircraft led to an International Conference on Aging Aircraft in Washington, D.C., during which a number of aviation safety related issues applicable to aging aircraft were raised and discussed among the conference participants. Various groups that have a vital stake in commercial aviation made certain recommendations which led to the formation of a task force and a broad undertaking involving the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), industry and international organizations to insure continued airworthiness of aging airplanes. At the same time, significant research and development programs were initiated by the FAA and NASA to complement the broader effort. In view of the success of the 1988 conference, the FAA desired that conferences be held annually to disseminate information on the status of the task force's activities on aircraft certification and airline maintenance related issues and to offer a forum for participation by all interested parties. Thus, the 2nd International Conference was held in 1989 in Baltimore and the third in the series in 1990 in Bordeaux, France. Both of them, like the first conference, attracted rousing attendance and interest. Thus, the stage was set for organizing the 4th International Conference in 1991. By 1991, the FAA and NASA research programs were yielding significant results, a consideration that led to a larger segment of the 4th International Conference Program being devoted to presentations about the impact of the research on the other activities of the task group. Agreement had also been reached between the FAA and NASA to coordinate and integrate their respective program activities. Hence, NASA was co-opted as a sponsor of the conference. A group consisting of Mr. Stephen Erickson of the Air Transport Association of America, Mr. Jesse Lewis and Mr. Richard Johnson of the FAA, and Mr. Thomas Crooker of NASA was formed to organize the conference. The members of the group are owed special thanks for their efforts that ensured the success of the conference.

Aging Aircraft↗

Conductivity of a Copper-Carbon Covetic Composite

NASA is currently engaged in the development of highly electrically conductive wire for space and aviation power and propulsion applications. Higher levels of electrical conductivity and lower densities compared to copper and aluminum are needed to improve the efficiency of commercial aviation and space flight. Carbon, in various forms, is being considered as a component in composites to increase conductivity and decrease density in Cu and Al. One form of carbon that is currently receiving much interest is known as covectic. The technology currently known as covetics was first introduced by Shugart and Scherer whose patents claimed "Carbon can be incorporated into any of these metals by melting the metal, mixing the carbon into the molten metal and, while mixing, applying a current of sufficient amperage to the molten mixture such that the carbon becomes incorporated into the metal, thereby forming a single phase metal-carbon material." It is reported that in this process a conversion reaction occurs with the carbon forming covalent bonds with the host metal, and that covetic processing enables higher carbon solubility and improvements in properties. Although there is a growing body of work supporting covetic materials, it is still a very new and somewhat controversial field. Composition, density, and electrical conductivity measurements of a covetically processed alloy ingot of Cu and C, with a nominal composition of Cu-0.4wt.% C, were made. A pure Cu ingot was similarly processed for comparison. Sections of these ingots were worked into wire and tested. Only small amounts of C could be detected in the Cu-0.4wt.% C ingot, and trace amounts (0.006 wt.%) in the wire. All wires had densities very close to the full density of pure Cu, indicating a high level of Cu purity and low void fraction. Finally, the electrical conductivity of the Cu-0.4wt.% C wires were 9% lower than the samples similarly processed but without C additions. The wires made without C additions had conductivities approximately equal to pure Cu. The low conductivity of the Cu-0.4wt.% C material is believed to be due to: (1) a structure of interfaces in the wire created by collapsed voids lined with elemental C, (2) impurities, such as Fe in the Cu, which came from the added C, and (3) a small volume fraction of voids.

Degroh, Henry C.↗

CASPEr: an Approach to Characterize the Performance of Onboard Airplane Energy State and Automation Mode Prediction Functions

The Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) has identified a set of safety enhancements to mitigate the risks of loss of control in-flight (LOCI) accidents and incidents involving commercial transport airplanes. In support of this, NASA has been developing technologies intended to enhance flight crew awareness of airplane systems, attitude, and energy state. This report describes preliminary ideas for a methodology to assess the goodness of onboard airplane energy state and automation mode prediction functions. The methodology is intended to contribute to the goal of moving these prediction technologies to the readiness level required for transition to industry and reduce the technology certification risks. In addition, this report describes a simulation-based approach named CASPEr (Characterization of Airplane State Prediction Error) to characterize the performance of these predictive functions over a wide range of operational conditions. The first exploratory version of this approach is described. The bulk of the report documents the initial results of tests to characterize the performance of an airplane trajectory prediction function. Future reports will give additional performance characterization results for this function and a complete description of the proposed methodology to assess such functions.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗

ATTRACTOR: Toward Trustworthy and Trusted Autonomous Systems

The question of what it means and what it takes for an autonomous system to consider another autonomous system justifiably trustworthy must be addressed by all who seek to integrate intelligent machine agents into real-world operations. A satisfactory answer to this question is an essential component in accepting autonomous machine decision-making in safety-critical and time-critical environments, such as aviation. Historically, simulation platforms for test and evaluation of complex systems have proven to be effective in assessing performance and contributing to decisions on the fitness of systems to operate in current general and commercial aviation airspace. Moreover, simulations have informed the definition of safety-critical constraints. However, as machine systems progressively take on responsibilities for decision-making traditionally supplied by humans, simulations require enhancement. Mixed reality simulation that integrates real-world platforms and data or high-fidelity simulation data in a sim-to-flight paradigm provides insight into agent interaction and the rationale behind autonomous agent decision-making as well as the capacity for seamless integrated implementation, testing, and operation of systems. Strong simulation capabilities are especially important in the presence of algorithms that hold great promise in decision-making yet increase the uncertainty in the system. Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR) is a subproject of NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) Project. ATTRACTOR’s objective is to build a basis for understanding trust and trustworthiness in multi-agent autonomous teams, and thus to inform future certification of safety-critical and time-critical autonomous systems in aviation. Because the concepts of trust and trustworthiness must be addressed in a context, ATTRACTOR has chosen Search and Rescue (SAR) in dynamic and unstructured environments, with emphasis on search, as its design reference mission (DRM). During dynamic planning and execution of trajectory-based operations, autonomous agents determine their trajectories given an assigned mission or missions and call for assistance from an appropriate teammate when needed. This experience along with the attendant human-machine and machine-machine interactions, serve as a platform for developing approaches to identifying and measuring trustworthiness and increasing trust. In this paper, we give an overview of some of ATTRACTOR’s research and development activities, findings, and ongoing work.

ATTRACTOR↗

Center for High-Efficiency Electrical Technologies for Aircraft (CHEETA)

The aeronautics industry has been challenged on many fronts to increase efficiency, reduce emissions, and decrease dependency on carbon-based fuels. With subsonic transports serving as the dominant contributor to the fuel consumption and carbon footprint of global aviation, the need for environmentally-responsible transportation has been met with a boom of research in the field of aircraft propulsion electrification across industry, government, and academic organizations. However, adoption of electrified propulsion systems for large commercial aircraft today is unattainable, due to the lack of motors and power electronics appropriately sized for these vehicles, high weight requirements of conventional electrical energy storage systems, and new principles required to design these classes of aircraft. The mission of the Center for High-Efficiency Electrical Technologies for Aircraft (CHEETA) program is to develop, mature, and design disruptive technologies for electric commercial aviation. The associated technologies being researched include distributed aero-propulsion system integration, high-efficiency electrochemical power conversion, flight-weight electric machines and power electronics, materials and systems for superconducting high-efficiency power transmission, and methods for complex system integration and optimization. Additionally, the current program is investigating the use of unconventional energy storage and power generation architectures, such as liquid hydrogen fuel and high-efficiency fuel cell systems. The research program provides a direct line-of-sight to not only achieving, but potentially even exceeding the aviation community goals for transition to alternative propulsion and energy through convergence of various novel technologies. The end result of maturation and integration of these technologies is an aircraft system with a quiet, efficient propulsion system that produces zero carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter emissions at the vehicle level.

Koushik Datta↗

Creating Formal Characterizations ofRoutine Contingency Management inCommercial Aviation

Traditional approaches to safety management focus on collection of data describing unwanted states (i.e., accidents and incidents) and analysis of undesired behaviors (i.e., faults and errors) that precede those states. Thus, in the traditional view of safety, safety is both defined and measured by its absence, namely the lack of safety. In extremely high confidence systems like commercial air transport, however, opportunities to measure the absence of safety are relatively rare. Ironically, a critical barrier to measuring safety and the impact of mitigation strategies in commercial aviation is the lack of opportunities for measurement.

Intelligent Contingency Management,↗

Current Safety Nets Within the U.S. National Airspace System

There are over 70,000 flights managed per day in the National Airspace System, with approximately 7,000 aircraft in the air over the United States at any given time. Operators of each of these flights would prefer to fly a user-defined “4D” trajectory (4DT), which includes arrival and departure times; preferred gates and runways at the airport; efficient, wind-optimal routes for departure, cruise and arrival phase of flight; and fuel efficient altitude profiles. To demonstrate the magnitude of this achievement a single flight from Los Angeles to Baltimore, accesses over 35 shared or “constrained” resources that are managed by roughly 30 air traffic controllers (at towers, approach control and en route sectors); along with traffic managers at 12 facilities, using over 22 different, independent automation system (including TBFM, ERAM, STARS, ASDE-X, FSM, TSD, GPWS, TCAS, etc.). In addition, dispatchers, ramp controllers and others utilize even more systems to manage each flight’s access to operator-managed resources. Flying an ideal 4DT requires successful coordination of all flight constraints among all flights, facilities, operators, pilots and controllers. Additionally, when conditions in the NAS change, the trajectories of one or more aircraft may need to be revised to avoid loss of flight efficiency, predictability, separation or system throughput. The Aviation Safety Network has released the 2016 airliner accident statistics showing a very low total of 19 fatal airliner accidents, resulting in 325 fatalities1. Despite several high profile accidents, the year 2016 turned out to be a very safe year for commercial aviation, Aviation Safety Network data show. Over the year 2016 the Aviation Safety Network recorded a total of 19 fatal airliner accidents [1], resulting in 325 fatalities. This makes 2016 the second safest year ever, both by number of fatal accidents as well as in terms of fatalities. In 2015 ASN recorded 16 accidents while in 2013 a total of 265 lives were lost. How can we keep it that way and not upset the apple cart by premature insertion of innovative technologies, functions, and procedures? In aviation, safety nets function as the last system defense against incidents and accidents. Current ground-based and airborne safety nets are well established and development to make them more efficient and reliable continues. Additionally, future air traffic control safety nets may emerge from new operational concepts.

Smith, Brian E.↗

Validation of Fatigue Modeling Predictions in Aviation Operations

Bio-mathematical fatigue models that predict levels of alertness and performance are one potential tool for use within integrated fatigue risk management approaches. A number of models have been developed that provide predictions based on acute and chronic sleep loss, circadian desynchronization, and sleep inertia. Some are publicly available and gaining traction in settings such as commercial aviation as a means of evaluating flight crew schedules for potential fatigue-related risks. Yet, most models have not been rigorously evaluated and independently validated for the operations to which they are being applied and many users are not fully aware of the limitations in which model results should be interpreted and applied.

operational safety↗

Crew Selection and Training

This research addressed a number of issues relevant to the performance of teams in demanding environments. Initial work, conducted in the aviation analog environment, focused on developing new measures of performance related attitudes and behaviors. The attitude measures were used to assess acceptance of concepts related to effective teamwork and personal capabilities under stress. The behavioral measures were used to evaluate the effectiveness of flight crews operating in commercial aviation. Assessment of team issues in aviation led further to the evaluation and development of training to enhance team performance. Much of the work addressed evaluation of the effectiveness of such training, which has become known as Crew Resource Management (CRM). A second line of investigation was into personality characteristics that predict performance in challenging environments such as aviation and space. A third line of investigation of team performance grew out of the study of flight crews in different organizations. This led to the development of a theoretical model of crew performance that included not only individual attributes such as personality and ability, but also organizational and national culture. A final line of investigation involved beginning to assess whether the methodologies and measures developed for the aviation analog could be applied to another domain -- the performance of medical teams working in the operating room.

Helmreich, Robert L.↗

Ion-Pair Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells for Heavy-duty Transportation

The purpose of this project is to build a fuel cell prototype that demonstrates high temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cell technology (HT PEMFC) commercial readiness. It advances from a technology baseline established in a prior CRADA in which these same Parties collaborated during the years 2020-2024. These efforts are aligned with the intentions of the DOE Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology Office (HFTO) L’Innovator Pilot Program. Participant observes that its US-based competitive advantage may be improved by further optimizing Laboratory inventions. This CRADA is intended to further improve National Laboratory compositions and to develop commercial HT PEMFC membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) that perform over a range of operating temperatures and relative humidity, that generate power from both low grade and pure hydrogen, and that are resistant to air impurities. Participant’s goal is to advance the commercial competitiveness of National Laboratory technologies in fuel cell products for heavy-duty truck integrators, for stationary power generation, marine applications, and for emerging interest from commercial aviation. The Parties will collaborate on producing a HT PEMFC MEA that integrates LANL ion pair technology and Brookhaven catalyst technology. The Laboratories plan to research and develop compositions for testing and evaluation. The participant will manufacture multiple MEAs based on the Laboratory compositions and will enable selected customers to validate performance characteristics. The Laboratories will convey to Participant the methods of making the National Laboratory compositions such that Participant may reproduce and then scale Laboratory methods into commercial production. Throughout the project, the Laboratories and Participant will iteratively test and optimize the compositions of materials of the MEAs, intending to optimize characteristics such as power density and lifecycle durability. Participant’s intended customers include fuel cells for large trucks, aviation, power back up, marine, and portable power.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Predicting Cognitive States Using Machine Learning Fusion Paradigms to Reduce Model Uncertainty

The development of a synergetic system between humans and technology is a challenge that the scientific community has been facing for many years. Our aeronautic research aims to enhance this synergy between humans and machines through predictive human performance modeling for systems to mitigate high-risk situations. By being able to predict and anticipate human states, the crew monitoring system should be able to adjust and support the pilot for aviation safety. Our work focusing on attention-related human performance-limiting states (AHPLS) that impact a pilot’s performance and introduce high-risk catastrophic situations [1]. For example, AHPLS has been cited as a causal factor in more than 50% of all loss control in flight and thus contributes significantly toward commercial aviation fatalities [1, 2]. Cognitive state and its physiological fingerprint can be valuable information for this detecting AHPLS, but human cognitive state detection is still a major limitation for these crew monitoring systems.

machine learning↗

Alternate aircraft fuels prospects and operational implications

The paper discusses NASA studies of the potentials of coal-derived aviation fuels, specifically synthetic aviation kerosene, liquid methane, and liquid hydrogen. Topics include areas of fuel production, air terminal requirements for aircraft fueling (for liquid hydrogen only), and the performance characteristics of aircraft designed to utilize alternate fuels. Energy requirements associated with the production of each of the three selected fuels are determined, and fuel prices are estimated. Subsonic commercial air transports using liquid hydrogen fuel have been analyzed, and their performance and the performance of aircraft which use commercial aviation kerosene are compared. Environmental and safety issues are considered.

Witcofski, R. D.↗

A Practical Guide to Interpretation of Large Collections of Incident Narratives Using the QUORUM Method

Analysis of incident reports plays an important role in aviation safety. Typically, a narrative description, written by a participant, is a central part of an incident report. Because there are so many reports, and the narratives contain so much detail, it can be difficult to efficiently and effectively recognize patterns among them. Recognizing and addressing recurring problems, however, is vital to continuing safety in commercial aviation operations. A practical way to interpret large collections of incident narratives is to apply the QUORUM method of text analysis, modeling, and relevance ranking. In this paper, QUORUM text analysis and modeling are surveyed, and QUORUM relevance ranking is described in detail with many examples. The examples are based on several large collections of reports from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) database, and a collection of news stories describing the disaster of TWA Flight 800, the Boeing 747 which exploded in mid- air and crashed near Long Island, New York, on July 17, 1996. Reader familiarity with this disaster should make the relevance-ranking examples more understandable. The ASRS examples illustrate the practical application of QUORUM relevance ranking.

McGreevy, Michael W.↗