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NASA NTRS2021

GCAP 2.0: A Global 3-D Chemical-Transport Model Framework for Past, Present, and Future Climate Scenarios

This manuscript describes version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). Meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem has been archived from the E2.1 contributions to Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the preindustrial and recent past. In addition, meteorology is available for the near future and end-of-the century for seven future scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. Emissions and boundary conditions have been prepared for input to GEOS-Chem that are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. The model meteorology, emissions, transport and chemistry are evaluated in the recent past and found to be largely consistent with GEOS-Chem driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) product and with observational constraints.

Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model↗

NASA NTRS2021

GCAP 2.0: A Global 3-D Chemical-Transport Model Framework for Past, Present, and Future Climate Scenarios

This paper describes version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). Meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem has been archived from the E2.1 contributions to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the pre-industrial era and the recent past. In addition, meteorology is available for the near future and end of the century for seven future scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. Emissions and boundary conditions have been prepared for input to GEOS-Chem that are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. The model meteorology, emissions, transport, and chemistry are evaluated in the recent past and found to be largely consistent with GEOS-Chem driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) product and with observational constraints.

Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model↗

NASA NTRS2022

Optimized Umkehr Profile Algorithm for Ozone Trend Analyses

The long-term record of Umkehr measurements from four NOAA Dobson spectrophotometers was reprocessed after updates to the instrument calibration procedures. In addition, a new data quality-control tool was developed for the Dobson automation software (WinDobson). This paper presents a comparison of Dobson Umkehr ozone profiles from NOAA ozone network stations (Boulder, OHP, MLO, Lauder) against several satellite records, including Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS; ver. 4.2), and combined SBUV and OMPS records (NASA AGG and NOAA COH). A subset of satellite data is selected to match Dobson Umkehr observations at each station spatially (distance less than 200 km) and temporally (within 24 hours). Umkehr Averaging Kernels (AKs) are applied to vertically smooth all overpass satellite profiles prior to comparisons. The station Umkehr record consists of several instrumental records, which have different optical characterizations, and thus instrument-specific stray light contributes to the data processing errors and creates step changes in the record. This work evaluates the overall quality of Umkehr long-term measurements at NOAA ground-based stations and assesses the impact of the instrumental changes on the stability of the Umkehr ozone profile record. This paper describes a method designed to correct biases and discontinuities in the retrieved Umkehr profile that originate from the Dobson calibration process, repair, or optical realignment of the instrument. The M2GMI and GMI CTM ozone profile model output matched to station location and date of observation is used to evaluate instrumental step changes in the Umkehr record. Homogenization of the Umkehr record and discussion of the apparent stray light error in retrieved ozone profiles are the focus of this paper. Homogenization of ground-based records is of great importance for studies of long-term ozone trends and climate change.

Umkehr↗

NASA NTRS2022

Combining Machine Learning and Numerical Simulation for High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentration Forecast

Forecasting ambient PM2.5 concentrations with spatiotemporal coverage is key to alerting decision-makers of pollution episodes and preventing detrimental public exposure, especially in regions with limited ground air monitoring stations. The existing methods either rely on chemical transport models (CTMs) to forecast spatial distribution of PM2.5 with nontrivial uncertainty or statistical algorithms to forecast PM2.5 concentration time-series at air monitoring locations without continuous spatial coverage. In this study, we developed a PM2.5 forecast framework by combining the robust Random Forest algorithm with a publicly accessible global CTM forecast product – NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System “Composition Forecasting” (GEOS-CF), providing spatiotemporally continuous PM2.5 concentration forecasts for the next five days at a 1-km spatial resolution. Our forecast experiment was conducted for a region in Central China including the populous and polluted Fenwei Plain. The forecast for the next two days had overall validation R2 of 0.76 and 0.64, respectively; the R2 was around 0.5 for the following three forecast days. Spatial cross-validation showed similar validation metrics. Our forecast model, with validation normalized mean bias close to zero, substantially reduced the large biases in GEOS-CF. The proposed framework requires minimal computational resources compared to running CTMs at urban scales, enabling near-real-time PM2.5 forecast in resource-restricted environments.

PM2.5↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the Air Quality Impacts of Future Energy Scenarios

Many greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction measures achieve simultaneous reductions in air pollutants. Human-Earth system models can estimate such emission changes in the energy system but using them in chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to study their air quality impacts involves resource-intensive emissions processing. This is greatly simplified by an emissions scaling approach linking state-level emissions estimated by a human-Earth system model to a CTM. A scenario continuing pre-2022 energy policy in the U.S. to 2050 shows widespread air quality improvements over the 2015 baseline from SO 2 and NO x emission reductions of 50–80% from electricity generation and light-duty vehicles. Scenarios of GHG mitigation and vehicle electrification at the state and national level add further benefits. However, PM 2.5 increases from increased use of wood heating and bioenergy suggest that additional PM 2.5 management may be needed when using biofuels. In conclusion, this approach helps assess multiple future energy scenarios efficiently without sacrificing chemical detail in the air quality simulations.

air quality↗

NASA NTRS1974

Earth Observatory Satellite system definition study. Report 5: System design and specifications. Volume 7: Specification for EOS low cost readout station

The functional, performance, and design requirements for the Low Cost Readout Station (LCRS) which supports the Earth Observatory Satellite (EOS) data system are described. The basic LCRS consists of all hardware and software needed to acquire and track the EOS-A or EOS-B satellite and receive, record, process, and annotate the instrument data from the satellites. The LCRS also provides appropriate interfaces with the unique local user provided display and extractive processing equipment. The LCRS has the capability of acquiring image data from the EOS-A and the EOS-B satellites over a ground area defines by a 500 kilometer radius from the coordinates of the station. The LCRS is also capable of receiving and processing both, but not simultaneously, full five band Multispectral Scanner (MSS) image data and various modes of the Compacted Thematic (CTM) data.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1987

Chemistry of the global troposphere - Fluorocarbons as tracers of air motion

Winds and convective mixing from a general circulation model of the atmosphere have been applied in a chemical tracer model (CTM) to simulate the global distribution and temporal variability of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The seasonal cycle in moist convection, with maximum activity over continents in summer, leads to an annual cycle in the surface concentration of CFCs. Emissions are retained in the lowest levels of the atmosphere during winter, and surface concentrations peak near sources. In this season, CFCs from European sources are carried by low-level winds into the Arctic. During summer, vertical exchange is more efficient, and pollutants are transported more rapidly to the middle atmosphere. Consequently, concentrations of CFCs during summer are relatively low near the surface and elevated in the middle troposphere. Time series analysis of data from Adrigole, Ireland, indicates that the model accurately simulates long-range transport of air pollution. The model reproduces global distributions and trends for CFC-11 and CFC-12 observed by the ALE experiment; however, subgrid diffusion must be introduced into the model in order to reproduce the observed interhemispheric gradient. Interhemispheric exchange occurs mainly in the upper tropical troposphere, producing a profile which increases with altitude in the Southern Hemisphere, in agreement with observations. The distribution of CFCs is such that it is necessary to apply important corrections to observations at surface stations in order to derive global distributions.

Prather, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1990

Tropospheric OH in a three-dimensional chemical tracer model - An assessment based on observations of CH3CCl3

The paper introduces the representation of tropospheric chemistry allowing for calculation of chemical reaction rates within a chemical tracer model (CTM) simulation with the accuracy comparable to that of a detailed chemical model. The global distribution of tropospheric OH is calculated as a function of time, atmospheric composition, temperature, and solar irradiance. The globally integrated OH concentration weighted by frequency of reaction with CH3CCl3 is evaluated, along with the feasibility of using the observed latitudinal distribution of CH3CCl3 as a test for computed concentrations of OH. Seasonal variations of CH3CCl3 are also considered as a potential test for computed concentrations of OH. It is demonstrated that annual cycles of CH3CCl3 are controlled, or strongly influenced, by dynamical processes at latitudes northward of 25 deg South.

Spivakovsky, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Stratospheric chemistry and transport

A Chemical Tracer Model (CTM) that can use wind field data generated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) is developed to implement chemistry in the three dimensional GCM of the middle atmosphere. Initially, chemical tracers with simple first order losses such as N2O are used. Successive models are to incorporate more complex ozone chemistry.

Prather, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1994

Ozone formation during an episode over Europe: A 3-D chemical/transport model simulation

A 3-D regional photochemical tracer/transport model for Europe and the Eastern Atlantic has been developed based on the NASA/GISS CTM. The model resolution is 4x5 degrees latitude and longitude with 9 layers in the vertical (7 in the troposphere). Advective winds, convection statistics and other meteorological data from the NASA/GISS GCM are used. An extensive gas-phase chemical scheme based on the scheme used in our global 2D model has been incorporated in the 3D model. In this work ozone formation in the troposphere is studied with the 3D model during a 5 day period starting June 30. Extensive local ozone production is found and the relationship between the source regions and the downwind areas are discussed. Variations in local ozone formation as a function of total emission rate, as well as the composition of the emissions (HC/NO(x)) ratio and isoprene emissions) are elucidated. An important vertical transport process in the troposphere is by convective clouds. The 3D model includes an explicit parameterization of this process. It is shown that this process has significant influence on the calculated surface ozone concentrations.

Berntsen, Terje↗

NASA NTRS1997

An Agent-Based Cockpit Task Management System

An agent-based program to facilitate Cockpit Task Management (CTM) in commercial transport aircraft is developed and evaluated. The agent-based program called the AgendaManager (AMgr) is described and evaluated in a part-task simulator study using airline pilots.

Funk, Ken↗

NASA NTRS1998

Coupling Processes between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

This is the fourth semi-annual report for NAS5-97039, covering the time period July through December 1998. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes between atmospheric chemistry and climate. Model predictions of the future distributions of trace gases in the atmosphere constitute an important component of the input necessary for quantitative assessments of global change. We will concentrate on the changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The key modeling tools for this work are the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) two-dimensional chemistry-transport model, the AER two-dimensional stratospheric sulfate model, and the AER three-wave interactive model with full chemistry. For this six month period, we report on a modeling study of new rate constant which modify the NOx/NOy ratio in the lower stratosphere; sensitivity to changes in stratospheric water vapor in the future atmosphere; a study of N2O and CH4 observations which has allowed us to adjust diffusion in the 2-D CTM in order to obtain appropriate polar vortex isolation; a study of SF6 and age of air with comparisons of models and measurements; and a report on the Models and Measurements II effort.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Global Modeling of Mineral Dust and its Optical Thickness

Global distribution of dust in the atmosphere has been simulated using the NASA Goddard chemical transport model (GEOS-CTM) to help retrieve the aerosol optical thickness from TOMS absorbing aerosol index. The model contains a dust module which accounts for sources and removal processes. The transport is driven by the assimilated meteorological fields generated by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). One of the key parameters, in the retrieval algorithm of optical thickness from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data, is the vertical profile of aerosols. During the period 10- 19 September 1994, Lidar on-space Technology Experiment (LITE) was flown on space shuttle Discovery. The 53 hours of data collected cover the lower atmosphere from the earth surface to 20 kilometers altitude and from 57 N to 57 S with a high resolution of about 15 meters. The model results are compared with LITE data over the source regions of dust (Africa, Middle East, Asia, Australia) and in the remote troposphere (Atlantic and Pacific). The simulated horizontal distribution is compared with TOMS absorbing aerosol index. Finally the calculated optical thickness will be assessed with ground based sun-photometers (AERONET).

Ginoux, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Budgets of N2O and CCl3F

The 6-year wind archives from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies/Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model (GISS/GCMAM) were in- put to the GISS/Harvard/Irvine Chemical Transport Model (G/H/I CTM) to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the budgets and distributions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and trichlorofluoromethane (CCl3F), with the corresponding chemical loss frequencies recycled and boundary conditions kept unchanged from year to year. The effects of ozone feedback and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were not included. However, the role of circulation variation in driving the lifetime variability is investigated. It was found that the global loss rates of these tracers are related to the extratropical planetary wave activity, which drives the tropical upward mass flux. For N2O, a semiannual signal in the loss rate variation is associated with the interhemispheric asymmetry in the upper stratospheric wave activity. For CCl3F, the semiannual signal is weaker, associated with the comparatively uniform wave episodes in the lower stratosphere. The loss rates lag behind the wave activity by about 1-2 months. The interannual variation of the GCM generated winds drives the interannual variation of the annually averaged lifetime. The year-to-year variations of the annually averaged lifetimes can be about 3% for N2O and 4% for CCl3F.

Wong, Sun↗

NASA NTRS1999

Interpretation of Lidar and Satellite Data Sets Using a Global Photochemical Model

A primary goal of the NASA Tropospheric Chemistry Program (TCP) is to "contribute substantially to scientific understanding of human impacts on the global troposphere". In order to analyze global or regional trends and factors of the troposphere chemistry, for example, its oxidation capacity or composition, a continuous global/regional data coverage as well as model simulations are needed. The Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE), a major component of the TCP, provides data vital to these questions via aircraft measurement of key trace chemical species in various remote regions of the world. Another component in NASA's effort are satellite projects for exploration of tropospheric chemistry and dynamics. A unique data product is the Tropospheric Ozone Residual (TOR) utilizing global tropospheric ozone data. Another key research tool are simulation studies of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics for the theoretical understanding of the atmosphere, the extrapolation of observed trends, and for sensitivity studies assessing a changing anthropogenic impact to air chemistry and climate. In the context with model simulations, field data derived from satellites or (airborne) field missions are needed for two purposes: 1. To initialize and validate model simulations, and 2., to interpret field data by comparison to model simulation results in order to analyze global or regional trends and deviations from standard tropospheric chemistry and transport conditions as defined by the simulations. Currently, there is neither a sufficient global data coverage available nor are existing well established global circulation models. The NASA LARC CTM model is currently not yet in a state to accomplish a sufficient tropospheric chemistry simulation, so that the current research under this cooperative agreement focuses on utilizing field data products for direct interpretation. They will be also available for model testing and a later interpretation with a finally utilized model.

Zenker, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2000

Model Assessment of the Impact on Ozone of Subsonic and Supersonic Aircraft

This is the final report for work performed between June 1999 through May 2000. The work represents continuation of the previous contract which encompasses five areas: (1) continued refinements and applications of the 2-D chemistry-transport model (CTM) to assess the ozone effects from aircraft operation in the stratosphere; (2) studying the mechanisms that determine the evolution of the sulfur species in the aircraft plume and how such mechanisms affect the way aircraft sulfur emissions should be introduced into global models; (3) the development of diagnostics in the AER 3-wave interactive model to assess the importance of the dynamics feedback and zonal asymmetry in model prediction of ozone response to aircraft operation; (4) the development of a chemistry parameterization scheme in support of the global modeling initiative (GMI); and (5) providing assessment results for preparation of national and international reports which include the "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Assessment of the effects of high-speed aircraft in the stratosphere: 1998" by NASA, and the "Model and Measurements Intercomparison II" by NASA. Part of the work was reported in the final report. We participated in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) campaign and we continue with our analyses of the data.

Ko, Malcolm↗

NASA NTRS2001

Mixing in the Extratropical Stratosphere: Model-measurements Comparisons using MLM Diagnostics

We evaluate transport processes in the extratropical lower stratosphere for both models and measurements with the help of equivalent length diagnostic from the modified Lagrangian-mean (MLM) analysis. This diagnostic is used to compare measurements of long-lived tracers made by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) with simulated tracers. Simulations are produced in Chemical and Transport Models (CTMs), in which meteorological fields are taken from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model (MACCM2), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) "SKYHI" model, respectively. Time series of isentropic equivalent length show that these models are able to capture major mixing and transport properties observed by CLAES, such as the formation and destruction of polar barriers, the presence of surf zones in both hemispheres. Differences between each model simulation and the observation are examined in light of model performance. Among these differences, only the simulation driven by GEOS DAS shows one case of the "top-down" destruction of the Antarctic polar vortex, as observed in the CLAES data. Additional experiments of isentropic advection of artificial tracer by GEOS DAS winds suggest that diabatic movement might have considerable contribution to the equivalent length field in the 3D CTM diagnostics.

Ma, Jun↗

NASA NTRS2001

Comparison of the Variability of Constituents from a 3D Simulation with Observations in the Tropics

Fields from chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by assimilated winds have been shown to represent many aspects of observations at middle and high latitudes. Comparisons of modeled fields with observations have been much poorer in the tropics. Noise in the tropical winds produces variability in constituents in the tropics that greatly exceeds what is observed, Constituent gradients between the tropics, subtropics and middle latitudes are weaker than observed in the lower stratosphere. Tropical transport is shown to be much more realistic using a CTM driven by winds from the assimilation system that has recently been developed by the Data Assimilation Office at Goddard Space Flight Center. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM), a general circulation model model that uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood dynamical core, is at the core of the new assimilation system. Realistic transport in the tropics, particularly troposphere to stratosphere exchange, is an obvious requirement for realistic representation of the stratosphere to troposphere transport of ozone and other stratospheric constituents to the middle latitude upper troposphere.

Douglass, A. R.↗