SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Capacity estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Technical Potential for Hydropower Capacity at Non-powered Dams

In the last decade, retrofits of existing nonpowered dams (NPDs) have made up the largest share of capacity increases for US hydropower. Accurate estimates of potential capacity and generation at NPDs help identify sites that may be worth investing in detailed feasibility analyses and design exploration. This dataset consists of NPDs in the conterminous US with at least 100kW of theoretical potential based on earlier resource assessments. Historical daily streamflow (modeled or from USGS gauge records), hydraulic head (based on historical observations or primary purpose and dam height) are the main inputs for HydroGenerate which determines design flow and turbine efficiencies and then calculates nominal capacity, daily generation, and capacity factor. These outputs are summarized on a monthly basis (i.e., generation (MWh) and capacity factor averaged for each month from January to December) and overall (i.e., nominal capacity, average annual generation (MWh), and average annual capacity factor). A total of 4.1 GW capacity is estimated across all 2,564 NPDs included in the dataset.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating capacity fade in dual insertion batteries using potential and temperature measurements

Methods and systems are described of managing a battery system. The battery system including at least one battery cell and one or more sensors configured to measure a temperature of the at least one battery cell. The method includes receiving a measurement of the temperature of the at least one battery cell, estimating an open circuit potential of the at least one battery cell, estimating a capacity fade of the at least one battery cell based on the open circuit potential of the at least one battery cell and a ratio of a change in the open circuit potential relative to a change in the temperature of the at least one battery cell, and regulating at least one of charging or discharging of the at least one battery cell based on the estimation of the capacity fade.

Christensen, John F.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating capacity fade in dual insertion batteries using potential and temperature measurements

Christensen, John F.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Valuing variable renewable energy for peak demand requirements

The capacity credit for a generator is the fraction of its nameplate capacity that can contribute to meeting the system's resource adequacy. However, estimating the capacity credit of variable renewable energy is challenging due to the variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity of the renewable resources. This study uses the Regional Energy Deployment System to quantify the impacts on the U.S. power sector through 2050 from misestimations of renewable capacity credit. Results show that small underestimates of the renewable capacity credit have little impact on system buildout, but that large underestimates (>50%) can reduce solar photovoltaic deployment by nearly 100 GW (50%) and wind by up to 43 GW (22.8%) in 2030s. Such large differences are possible because the capacity credit for variable renewable energy can substantially impact the overall costs and value of variable renewable energy relative to other technologies. Such effects are most strongly felt in the mid-term but are less relevant over the long-term due to the declining value of variable resources. Underestimating the capacity credit of variable renewable energy leads to increased system costs and emissions. Conversely, overvaluing the capacity credit of variable renewable energy reduces system costs at the risk of lower reliability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling capacity fading in lithium-ion batteries using advanced cyclic tests: A real-world approach

Battery lifespan estimation is essential for effective battery management systems, aiding users and manufacturers in strategic planning. However, accurately estimating battery capacity is complex, owing to diverse capacity fading phenomena tied to factors such as temperature, charge-discharge rate, and rest period duration. In this work, we present an innovative approach that integrates real-world driving behaviors into cyclic testing. Unlike conventional methods that lack rest periods and involve fixed charge-discharge rates, our approach involves 1000 unique test cycles tailored to specific objectives and applications, capturing the nuanced effects of temperature, charge-discharge rate, and rest duration on capacity fading. This yields comprehensive insights into cell-level battery degradation, unveiling growth patterns of the solid electrolyte interface (SEI) layer and lithium plating, influenced by cyclic test parameters. Here, the results yield critical empirical relations for evaluating capacity fading under specific testing conditions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

State of battery health estimation based on swelling characteristics

There is disclosed an electrical device including a battery, and a battery management system. The battery management system includes a controller in electrical communication with a pressure sensor to monitor the state of health of the battery. The controller applies a method for determining the state of health that uses a non-electrical (mechanical) signal of force measurements combined with incremental capacity analysis to estimate the capacity fading and other health indicators of the battery with better precision than existing methods. The pressure sensor may provide the force measurement signal to the controller, which may determine which incremental capacity curve based on force to use for the particular battery. The controller then executes a program utilizing the data from the pressure sensor and the stored incremental capacity curves based on force to estimate the capacity fading and signal a user with the state of health percentage.

Stefanopoulou, Anna G.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Additional Capacity Value From Synergy of Variable Renewable Energy and Energy Storage

Current capacity markets often consider capacity credits from each resource independently, irrespective of the portfolio of resources, potentially overvaluing or undervaluing the capacity contribution of variable renewable energy (VRE) and energy storage (ES) in the grid. We propose a method for calculating the standalone and integrated capacity value of an added VRE resource with existing ES resources. The difference between the integrated and standalone value is the portfolio effect. This is the additional capacity value gained by the synergy of VRE and the existing fleet. Using chronological dispatch simulations and two different reliability metrics to estimate firm capacity, we demonstrate on a small test system that the portfolio effect can be substantial.

capacity credit↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration

Abstract. Future global changes will impact carbon (C) fluxes and pools in most terrestrial ecosystems and the feedback of terrestrial carbon cycling to atmospheric CO2. Determining the vulnerability of C in ecosystems to future environmental change is thus vital for targeted land management and policy. The C capacity of an ecosystem is a function of its C inputs (e.g., net primary productivity – NPP) and how long C remains in the system before being respired back to the atmosphere. The proportion of C capacity currently stored by an ecosystem (i.e., its C saturation) provides information about the potential for long-term C pools to be altered by environmental and land management regimes. We estimated C capacity, C saturation, NPP, and ecosystem C residence time in six US grasslands spanning temperature and precipitation gradients by integrating high temporal resolution C pool and flux data with a process-based C model. As expected, NPP across grasslands was strongly correlated with mean annual precipitation (MAP), yet C residence time was not related to MAP or mean annual temperature (MAT). We link soil temperature, soil moisture, and inherent C turnover rates (potentially due to microbial function and tissue quality) as determinants of carbon residence time. Overall, we found that intermediates between extremes in moisture and temperature had low C saturation, indicating that C in these grasslands may trend upwards and be buffered against global change impacts. Hot and dry grasslands had greatest C saturation due to both small C inputs through NPP and high C turnover rates during soil moisture conditions favorable for microbial activity. Additionally, leaching of soil C during monsoon events may lead to C loss. C saturation was also high in tallgrass prairie due to frequent fire that reduced inputs of aboveground plant material. Accordingly, we suggest that both hot, dry ecosystems and those frequently disturbed should be subject to careful land management and policy decisions to prevent losses of C stored in these systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

HydroFish: freshwater fish co-occurrence with hydropower plants and non-powered dams in conterminous United States sub-basins

The HydroFish dataset lists all existing hydropower plants (EHAs) and non-powered dams (NPDs; ≥ 0.001 MW potential nominal capacity), delineates the hydrologic sub-basins in which they are situated, and then lists all freshwater fish species reported to occur in those sub-basins. This dataset was compiled using the HydroBio dataset (https://hydrosource.ornl.gov/data/datasets/hydrobio/) and contains 24 total variables that describe hydrologic sub-basins, each unique EHA (plant ID and name, geographic coordinates, permit type, capacity, etc.) and NPD (ID value, known names, geographic coordinates, and estimated potential nominal capacity), and freshwater fish species in the sub-basin (common and scientific name, origin, and migratory and threat status). The HydroBio dataset was built using Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Existing Hydropower Assets Dataset (2024 version) and Non-powered Dam Technical Potential Dataset (2024 version), and NatureServe’s fish species distribution dataset (2023 version). The dataset also contains summary variables that report the unique number of EHAs, NPDs, and freshwater fish species per sub-basin. The HydroFish dataset contains two unique data files: 1) a .csv metadata file describing the dataset variables, and 2) a .csv data file containing the actual dataset. Note that there may be many rows per unique existing hydropower plant or non-powered dam given that distinct species are listed per existing plant or NPD per sub-basin. The dataset is downloadable as a zip file containing the metadata and dataset files.

Bozeman, Bryan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗

DOE OSTI2025

EVI-LOCATE User Manual

One of the longest stages in the deployment of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) is the initial planning of the infrastructure itself. Engineers and fleet experts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have supported dozens of charging infrastructure site plans over the past couple decades, including the generation of site schematics, determinations of electric capacity, and estimates for likely costs. As the market for electric vehicles (EVs) has matured, this approach should no longer require a time and personnel intensive process. In order to shorten the time taken to develop site plans and cost estimates, NREL developed a tool that fleet managers, facility managers, electricians, EVSE installers, and members of the public can use to develop initial schematics and ballpark pricing for charging station installations. The Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - Locally Optimized Charger Assessment Tool and Estimator (EVI-LOCATE) provides a structured and consistent way for users to enter information about their planned EVSE project in a relatively simple web-based format. EVI-LOCATE then calculates electrical equipment capacity, wiring runs, and project costs. It produces a site diagram optimized around surface characteristics with differential trenching costs for softscape such as grass compared to hardscape such as asphalt that can be adjusted by users in the tool. It also stores the resulting site plans and costs in a dashboard for access at a later date, including plan revisions if necessary. This document guides users through the EVI-LOCATE screens and associated questions. It contains tip text boxes throughout on how best to interface with the tool and find additional information or context. The appendices contain the assumptions and calculations underpinning the tool. Much of the information for EVI-LOCATE was gathered through industry engagements with EVSE installers, invoices from completed EVSE installations, Gordian's RS Means construction data, and the General Services Administration blanket purchase agreement for EVSE. For a visual tutorial of the tool, users can watch EVI-LOCATE Step-by-Step Video. The tool itself is available at https://evi-locate.nrel.gov.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

TEAMER: MADWEC Techno-Economic Analysis

The objective of this project was for the facility to conduct a techno-economic assessment (TEA) of the Maximal Asymmetric Drag Wave Energy Converter (MADWEC), developed by the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth (UMass Dartmouth). MADWEC is used for powering remote monitoring and Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) charging systems compared to other existing power supply options. The assessment estimates capital expenditures (CapEx), operational expenditures (OpEx), and power performance for 18 scenarios with the purpose of identifying key cost drivers, comparing total system cost, and comparing the power performance of the power supply options in terms of required installed capacity and estimated theoretical annual energy performance. The 18 assessed scenarios include two end-uses: 1) AUV charging and 2) offshore remote monitoring); three power sources: 1) MADWEC), 2) photovoltaic (PV) solar buoy, 3) and traditional battery swapping); and three locations; 1) nearshore, 2) far-offshore, and 3) high-latitude). In addition, other project goals included developing high level installation, operation, and maintenance plans for each scenario. The techno-economic model, created in Microsoft Excel, estimates CapEx, OpEx, and the power performance of each power supply source. The model has a dynamic format that allows custom inputs to accommodate future changes to the systems being assessed. This is a TEA for the MADWEC project, TEAMER RFTS 7 (request for technical support) program.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

MADWEC Techno-Economic Analysis: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report

The objective of this project was for the facility to conduct a techno-economic assessment of the Maximal Asymmetric Drag Wave Energy Converter (MADWEC), developed by the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth (UMass Dartmouth), used for powering remote monitoring and AUV charging systems compared to other existing power supply options. The assessment estimates capital expenditures (CapEx), operational expenditures (OpEx), and power performance for 18 scenarios with the purpose of identifying key cost drivers, comparing total system cost, and comparing the power performance of the power supply options in terms of required installed capacity and estimated theoretical annual energy performance. The scenarios include two end-uses: (1) AUV charging and (2) offshore remote monitoring); three power sources: (1) MADWEC), (2) photovoltaic (PV) solar buoy, (3) and traditional battery swapping); and three locations; (1) nearshore, (2) far-offshore, and (3) high-latitude). In addition, other project goals included developing high level installation, operation, and maintenance plans for each scenario.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic analysis of hydroprocessed renewable jet fuel production from pennycress oilseed

Commercial production of jet fuel from biobased feedstocks is still encumbering, mainly due to their high production cost and competition with food resources. Pennycress oilseed is a potential jet fuel feedstock which can be supplied at a lower price compared to similar oilseeds, such as soybean and canola. However, the technoeconomics of pennycress-based jet fuel production needs to be evaluated. The objective of this study was to assess the technical feasibility and costs of hydroprocessed renewable jet fuel (HRJ) production from pennycress. The production capacity was considered to be 18.9 million L/yr (5 million gal/yr). The analysis considered pennycress grain handling and conditioning, oil extraction and conversion to HRJ and byproducts, i.e., LPG, naphtha and green diesel, through hydroprocessing technology, as well as pennycress meal processing as boiler fuel and wastewater treatment. Total investment for establishing the HRJ biorefinery at the selected capacity was estimated to be 90.8 million USD. Minimum selling price (MSP) of HRJ was estimated to be 1.2 USD/L, which was comparable to the MSP of HRJ from similar oilseeds, including soybean and canola. It could also be further reduced by supplying pennycress grain at a lower price, increasing the oil content and increasing the production capacity of the biorefinery. Furthermore, the outcomes of this research would help establish the performance targets needed to reach the economic viability of HRJ production from pennycress at the commercial scale.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven offshore CO 2 saline storage assessment methodology

The world produces approximately 50 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases annually. This is measured in CO 2 -equivalents, and geologic CO 2 storage has the potential to advance decarbonization and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. New technologies to assess offshore carbon storage are needed to address resource, regulatory, and commercial needs. Although most efforts to assess storage resources focus on onshore criteria, offshore reservoirs offer significant storage potential and distinct development challenges. Potential advantages of offshore carbon storage include being further from human population centers and less potential to interact with groundwater. The U.S. Department of Energy's method for evaluating storage capacity in non-oil-bearing saline reservoirs has been enhanced to support assessments for offshore environments in the Offshore CO 2 Saline Storage methodology (OCSS). This methodology applies data-driven capabilities to estimate saline storage capacity while accounting for features specific to offshore reservoirs. Features include changes in CO 2 density and sedimentary differences that impact estimates of permanence and capacity. The Offshore CO 2 Saline Storage Calculator mechanizes OCSS to estimate storage capacity. This paper presents the methodology and estimates for 18 geologic domains in the Gulf of Mexico. Potential storage distributions, sensitivity analyses, and the incorporation of spatial data and tools to support safe site selection are also discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Wind Resource Assessment for Alaska’s Offshore Regions: Validation of a 14-Year High-Resolution WRF Data Set

Offshore wind resource assessments for the conterminous U.S. and Hawai’i have been developed before, but Alaska’s offshore wind resource has never been rigorously assessed. Alaska, with its vast coastline, presents ample potential territory in which to build offshore wind farms, but significant challenges have thus far limited Alaska’s deployment of utility-scale wind energy capacity to a modest 62 MW (or approximately 2.7% of the state’s electric generation) as of this writing, all in land-based wind farms. This study provides an assessment of Alaska’s offshore wind resource, the first such assessment for Alaska, using a 14-year, high-resolution simulation from a numerical weather prediction and regional climate model. This is the longest-known high-resolution model data set to be used in a wind resource assessment. Widespread areas with relatively shallow ocean depth and high long-term average 100-m wind speeds and estimated net capacity factors over 50% were found, including a small area near Alaska’s population centers and the largest transmission grid that, if even partially developed, could provide the bulk of the state’s energy needs. The regional climate simulations were validated against available radiosonde and surface wind observations to provide the confidence of the model-based assessment. The model-simulated wind speed was found to be skillful and with near-zero average bias (−0.4–0.2 m s−1) when averaged over the domain. Small sample sizes made regional validation noisy, however.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydropower Energy Storage Capacity Dataset

The Hydropower Energy Storage Capacity (HESC) Dataset catalogues estimates of nominal energy storage capacity based on varying levels of detail. Dams and reservoirs selected were selected based on those reported in the National Inventory of Dams (NID 2019) and/or the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD v1.3) datasets. These data provide a foundation for understanding available resources at existing hydropower facilities and their potential to provide storage of energy and more flexible generation. Current estimates include Level 1 (based on maximum storage capacities and hydraulic head) and Level 2 (based on historical models or observations of reservoir volume and hydraulic head). For facilities where installed capacity is known, there are also estimates for discharge duration or the length of time when a facility could provide generation at a given capacity. Essential information used to calculate the energy storage capacity and discharge duration (volume, hydraulic head, and details about the sources or records used to obtain those parameters) and summaries of historical generation (for context) are also included.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗