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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Reinforcement Learning Based HVAC Control for Reducing Carbon Footprint of Buildings

In this paper, we present our work on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based intelligent control of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) with the goal of reducing carbon emission. We performed this task using 1) Marginal Operating Emission Rates (MOER), where the objective was to shift the demand to the low emission period of the day and 2) Time-Of-Use (TOU) demand-response price where the objective was to shift the demand to low price period of the day. This was achieved by learning an optimal pre-cooing strategy. We found the carbon emission reduction in the range of 6%-16% depending on the opportunity presented by the MOER signal. Similarly, we observed the carbon emission reduction in the range of 23%-29% during the peak price period when TOU price was used. The results clearly demonstrated the applicability of our approach in reducing the carbon footprint of the building.

carbon emission↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrifying High-Efficiency Future Communities: Impact on Energy, Emissions, and Grid

To combat climate change and meet decarbonization goals, the building sector is improving energy efficiency and electrifying end uses to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels. All-electric buildings are becoming a trend among new constructions, introducing opportunities for decarbonization but also technical challenges and research gaps. For instance, further investigation is needed to understand how the adoption of energy efficiency measures (EEMs) and distributed energy resources (DERs) in all-electric communities would affect energy consumption, carbon emissions, and grid planning. This paper presents a case study of a mixed-use, all-electric community located in Denver, Colorado. We use URBANopt TM , a physics-based urban energy modeling platform to model the community and then evaluate the impact of EEMs and DERs (i.e., photovoltaics [PV], electric vehicles [EVs], and batteries) on the community's energy usage, carbon emissions, and peak demand. The results show that adding EEMs and PV led to both energy consumption and carbon emissions reductions across all building types. However, we saw fairly limited impact of EEMs and PV on buildings' peak demand in our case. Additionally, due to overnight EV charging activities and higher grid carbon intensity at night, the carbon emissions in multifamily buildings have a noticeable increase compared to scenarios without vehicles. Finally, the addition of batteries helped reduce peak demand by 11%-29%. The modeling workflow and evaluation methods can be applied to similar communities to evaluate their performance and the effect of integrating EEMs and DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

GreenThrift: Optimizing Carbon and Cost for Flexible Residential Loads

Reducing buildings’ carbon emissions is an important sustainability challenge. While scheduling flexible building loads has been previously used for a variety of grid and energy optimizations, carbon footprint reduction using such flexible loads poses new challenges since such methods need to balance both energy and carbon costs while also reducing user inconvenience from delaying such loads. This paper highlights the potential conflict between electricity prices and carbon emissions and the resulting trade-offs in carbon-aware and cost-aware load scheduling. To address this trade-off, we propose GreenThrift, a home automation system that leverages the scheduling capabilities of smart appliances and knowledge of future carbon intensity and cost to reduce both the carbon emissions and costs of flexible energy loads. At the heart of GreenThrift is an optimization technique that automatically computes schedules based on user configurations and preferences. We evaluate the effectiveness of GreenThrift using real-world carbon intensity data, electricity prices, and load traces from multiple locations and across different scenarios and objectives. Our results show that GreenThrift can replicate the offline optimal and retains 97% of the savings when optimizing the carbon emissions. Moreover, we show how GreenThrift can balance the conflict between carbon and cost and retain 95.3% and 85.5% of the potential carbon and cost savings, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synergistic Heat Pumped Thermal Storage and Flexibly Carbon Capture System

As the U.S. grid evolves toward a lower-carbon system, fossil generation assets need to operate in energy markets with high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration while also decreasing carbon emissions. Current carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies suffer from high capital cost and an inability to operate flexibly during periods of oscillating demand. The ARPA-E FLECCS Program Phase 1 was created to fund designing and optimizing innovative CCS processes that enable flexibility on a high-VRE grid. To address this need, the Colorado State University (CSU) Team won funding to design a synergized system of thermal energy storage, power generation, and flexible carbon capture to enable breakthrough system performance that achieves an LCOE <$75/MWh with >99% capture rate. This approach will target new or existing natural gas combined cycle power plants. The proposed design utilizes novel hot and cold thermal energy storage (TES) technologies that store low-cost, off-peak electricity as thermal energy to power CCS solvent regeneration and boost plant output during periods of peak demand. The design provides an overall optimized net present value (NPV) by maximizing low carbon power to grid while prices are highest using Storworks Power’s concrete TES technology. The team also capitalizes on decades of ION Clean Energy’s (ION) development in low cost and flexible pioneering solvent technology, which has proven reductions in energy consumption and overall cost of 28% and 38%, respectively, compared with state-of-the-art CCS.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Initial Systems-Level Assessment of a Distributed Direct Air Capture System Concept at the Urban-scale (UrbanDAC)

Direct Air Capture (DAC) systems offer a promising solution for mitigating global carbon emissions by directly removing ambient carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere. While future DAC facilities are typically envisioned as being large and centralized, small-scale systems present an alternative approach with advantages such as adaptability and lower uptake costs. By harnessing waste heat from the built environment, such small-scale systems become distributed DAC at the urban scale (UrbanDAC) that benefit from existing urban infrastructure, while presenting challenges such as identifying eligible buildings and sustainable transportation and storage of captured CO 2 . Collaborating with engineering experts and developers of a DAC unit that can be co-located with cooling towers of existing commercial buildings, this study explores the systems-level implications of UrbanDAC using a geographically explicit multi-decision criteria analysis (MCDA) framework. By considering various infrastructure and environmental factors, network analysis and geospatial techniques are applied to identify optimal building candidates for distributed DAC units within Knoxville, Tennessee, USA, as a representative mid-size city. The selected outputs of the MCDA are used to explore a scenario that assumes a CO 2 collection and transport route for 20 high-ranking candidate buildings; total carbon emissions, EV energy consumption, and net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are then calculated. Results suggest that the spatial variation of optimal candidates between thriving commercial areas is an important planning consideration. Examining the feasibility of UrbanDAC at an urban planning level provides valuable insights into the barriers and enabling conditions for CDR in cities, where the vast majority of CO 2 emissions are produced, and supports decision-making processes for the implementation of decarbonization initiatives. Through this initial assessment, this research acts as a pilot study for an emerging technology that highlights the importance of distributed DAC technologies in addressing climate change and emphasizes the need for further research and exploration in this domain.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decarbonizing all-electric communities via carbon-responsive control of behind-the-meter resources

The progression of electrification in the building and transportation sectors brings new opportunities for energy decarbonization. With higher dependence on the grid power supply, the variation of the grid carbon emission intensity can be utilized to reduce the carbon emissions from the two sectors. Existing coordinated control methods for buildings with distributed energy resources (DERs) either consider electricity price or renewable energy generation as the input signal, or adopt optimization in the decision-making, which is difficult to implement in the real-world environment. This paper aims to propose and validate an easy-to-deploy rule-based carbon responsive control framework that facilitates coordination between all-electric buildings and electric vehicles (EVs). The signals of the grid carbon emission intensity and the local photovoltaics (PV) generation are used for shifting the controllable loads. Extensive simulations were conducted using a model of an all-electric mixed-use community in a cold climate to validate the control performance with metrics such as emissions, energy consumption, peak demand, and EV end-of-day state-of-charge (SOC). Our study identifies that 4.5% to 27.1% of annual emission reduction can be achieved with limited impact on energy costs, peak demand, and thermal comfort. Additionally, up to 32.7% of EV emission reduction can be obtained if the EV owners reduce the target SOC by less than 21.2%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Embodied Carbon Reduction in New Construction: Reference Guide

The U.S. Department of Energy launched the Advanced Building Construction (ABC) Initiative in 2019 to modernize and streamline building renovation and construction processes that facilitate the integration of high-performance and low-carbon solutions in the U.S. building stock. There are four attributes of ABC that are the focus of the Initiative: affordable, fast, appealing, and low carbon. Substantial improvements have been made to reduce operational carbon emissions of buildings through efficiency and electrification. However, to achieve low-carbon new construction buildings, increased efforts to reduce the embodied carbon of buildings are needed. Embodied carbon emissions in buildings come primarily from the manufacturing of building envelope materials such as concrete, steel, lumber, and glass, among others. Recent studies show that construction and renovation of buildings account for 5% of energy use and 10% of carbon emissions globally.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards Net Zero: Modeling Approach to the Right-Sized Facilities

As the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere increases, the concerns about carbon emissions are growing. Several net-zero initiatives are taking place around the globe to achieve a balance between the GHGs put into the atmosphere and those taken out. While most efforts present a sectorized approach, this paper describes the importance of integrating information across different sectors for effective modeling of carbon emissions and holistic reduction opportunity analysis. Using the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) campus as a test case, this work provides a web-based tool for INL stakeholders to use when engaging in strategic planning to achieve carbon emissions reduction. This net-zero engineering support tool (NEST) uses historical data as foundational information for applying the modeling framework. Prediction of CO 2 emissions throughout project completion integrates various approaches and schedules aimed at energy conservation, fleet decarbonization, and other GHG reduction activities. Using NEST, stakeholders can visualize carbon emissions, electricity consumption, and costs for decision making when planning the pathway for reaching carbon net zero. The INL’s initiative to transition into an EV fleet was used to demonstrate the developed framework and the advantages of using NEST. It was shown that electrifying different fossil-fueled campus vehicles before 2030 with aggressive replacement schedules require high annual capital expenditure (CAPEX), which may not be available. The tool allows decision makers to test different replacement schedules and prioritize those that yield CAPEX below a certain threshold while meeting target milestones. While the demonstration focused on vehicle electrification, the developed framework lays the foundation for further quantitative analysis of other GHG reduction activities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projections of wildfire risk and activities under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Wildfires are important ecosystem processes that have a significant impact on terrestrial vegetation, environment, and climate. This study investigates how future wildfire risk and activities could change under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to pre-industrial levels using a modified McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDIn) and the CLM4.5-BGC land surface model. Sixteen Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were employed to supply the variables of climate change under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios in the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The ensemble means from the FFDIn and results from the CLM4.5-BGC with multiple forcings show that the dry areas in the southwestern US, Brazilian Highlands, and Arabian islands are projected to face higher wildfire risk with larger burned areas and more carbon emissions under a warmer climate. The Congo Basin and part of the Amazon could have a lower wildfire risk with smaller burned areas and less carbon emissions. The absolute changes in the projected FFDIn are small, although large increases are observed in boreal areas, particularly in the winter and spring. Burned area and carbon emissions are projected to increase in general in the boreal area but decrease in northeastern Asia. Compared to the 1.5 °C scenario, the wildfire risk and burned area levels are projected to increase under the 2.0 °C scenario except in the western Amazon. However, fire carbon emissions are projected to decrease more in tropical areas under the 2.0 °C scenario. The different change directions in eastern North America and eastern China produced by the FFDIn and CLM4.5-BGC suggest the potential effect of non-meteorological elements on fire activities.

1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nexus of electrification and energy efficiency retrofit of commercial buildings at the district scale

Rapid electrification of buildings at the district scale is needed for cities to achieve climate change mitigation goals. However, most electrification studies focus on either the single building level or the city/region building stock level, and depend on the slow and uncertain process of requesting personally identifiable customer energy usage data from utilities. To answer a key question facing local policymakers: “Where can electrification proceed at scale without first upgrading the grid?” this study aims to quantify and inform building electrification impacts at the district scale using detailed building energy modeling and based on public records datasets. We explore how energy efficiency retrofits can help mitigate increased peak electric demand, and quantify impacts to energy use and carbon emissions. Building energy models of a baseline, and scenarios of simple electrification, energy retrofits, and electrification in combination with retrofits were created and simulated for 54 commercial buildings in two contiguous districts of San Francisco. A simple electrification scenario increased annual electricity consumption but reduced annual site energy usage by 15% to 17%, mainly due to replacing inefficient gas furnaces and boilers with more efficient heat pumps. Peak demand increased 7.4% for Fisherman's Wharf (e.g. within the capacity of the existing power grid), while the Design District showed a marginal decrease. Annual carbon emissions were reduced by 46% and 37%. Combining electrification with efficiency upgrades reduced peak demand by 26% and 40%, and annual carbon emissions by 63% and 64% for the two districts. Furthermore, these results indicate that impacts of electrification depend on the mix of building uses within a district, and coupling electrification with energy efficiency upgrades is an effective strategy to decarbonize buildings while maintaining or reducing the peak electric demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leaf-cutting ant (Atta cephalotes) nests may be hotspots of methane and carbon dioxide emissions in tropical forests

Leaf-cutting ants of the genus Atta are widely distributed throughout the American tropics and subtropics and rival other herbivores in the consumption of surrounding foliage. Although numerous studies have been conducted on the role these insects play in herbivory and organic matter dynamics, only a handful of studies have examined their impacts on soil greenhouse gas emissions. Our study investigated fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) from three nests of Atta cephalotes using a portable greenhouse gas analyzer, and measured CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from soils containing nest holes that ranged 5.2–152.1 g CO 2 -C and –1.1 to 15,264.7 mg CH 4 -C m -2 day -1 , respectively. Fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4 were positively correlated above nest holes, but not in patches of soil away from leaf-cutting ant nests. Nearby non-nest soil emissions were significantly lower, ranging from 0.6 to 6.0 g CO 2 -C and –1.3 to 0.77 mg CH 4 -C m -2 day -1 . Fluxes of both gases among nests and among holes within a single nest were highly variable. This preliminary dataset is small in scale both temporarily and geographically, but the discovery of substantial greenhouse gas fluxes from Atta cephalotes nests may have important implications for carbon budgets of tropical and subtropical American forests. Further work will be necessary to determine the mechanisms behind enhanced greenhouse gas emissions from leaf-cutting ant nests, and how this may alter ecosystem-scale CO 2 emissions and CH 4 sink strength in tropical forest soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the Additional Carbon Savings with Biofuel

A recent study claims that corn used for ethanol should not be considered to be inherently biogenically carbon-neutral because not all that corn was grown additional to the level otherwise. By assessing the extent of carbon neutrality of corn for ethanol using the reference point baseline approach and historical data that study concluded that the carbon intensity of US corn ethanol is 27% higher than that of gasoline. We develop a framework to determine the carbon neutrality of corn for ethanol by assessing the additional carbon uptake by crops using an anticipated baseline approach. We also apply this framework to determine the additional corn produced for ethanol and include the direct life cycle carbon emissions of only that portion of corn in the direct life cycle carbon intensity of corn ethanol. We implement this framework by integrating an economic model of the agricultural sector in the USA with a biogenic carbon model and life cycle analysis to quantify biogenic carbon uptake and direct life cycle emissions with and without corn ethanol expansion over the 2007–2027 period. We find that the combined biogenic carbon emissions and direct life cycle carbon emission intensity of corn ethanol (not including indirect land use related emissions) is 21% lower than gasoline. In conclusion, the lower value of this carbon intensity of corn ethanol compared with gasoline is robust to a wide range of parametric assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Summertime methane and carbon dioxide emission rates and associated variables from a national‐scale survey of 146 reservoirs in the United States

Reservoirs are globally important sources of greenhouse gases, but the magnitude of their emissions is highly uncertain. Here, we present data for 146 reservoirs from two surveys of reservoir methane and carbon dioxide emissions, one at the regional scale in the midwestern United States and one at the national scale in the United States, plus data from two hand‐picked sites in Washington and Puerto Rico. At all reservoirs, ebullitive and diffusive emissions and basic physicochemistry were measured at 15–55 locations during one 22 to 64‐h period during the summers of 2016–2023, with four reservoirs revisited a second time. Contemporaneous water chemistry measurements were made at one or two locations in each reservoir. The dataset consists of two geospatial files and seven CSV files containing greenhouse gas emissions, water chemistry, morphology, and other relevant data. To date, these data comprise the largest multi‐reservoir emissions dataset assembled using consistent measurement methods.

Beaulieu, Jake J. [US Environmental Protection Age↗
DOE OSTI2026

Summertime methane and carbon dioxide emission rates and associated variables from a national-scale survey of 146 reservoirs in the United States, 2016-2023

Reservoirs are globally important sources of greenhouse gases, but the magnitude of their emissions is highly uncertain. Here we present data for 146 reservoirs from two surveys of reservoir methane and carbon dioxide emissions, one at the regional scale in the midwestern United States and one at the national scale in the conterminous United States, plus data from one reservoir in Washington and another in Puerto Rico. At all reservoirs, ebullitive and diffusive emissions and basic physiochemistry were measured at 15-70 locations during one 22 to 64-hour period during the summers of 2016-2023, with four reservoirs revisited a second time. Concomitant water chemistry measurements were also made at an index site. The dataset is comprised of two geospatial files and seven .csv files containing greenhouse gas emissions, water chemistry, morphology, and other relevant data. These data comprise the largest multi-reservoir emissions dataset ever assembled using consistent measurement methods.

Beaulieu, Jake [University of Notre Dame, IN]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Life cycle analysis of gasification and Fischer-Tropsch conversion of municipal solid waste for transportation fuel production

Non-recyclable municipal solid waste (MSW) can be used as feedstock for liquid fuel production via gasification followed by Fischer-Tropsch (FT) processes. Given the heterogeneity of MSW material composition and variation in material properties, its convertibility to liquid hydrocarbon fuels could vary widely, affecting the sustainability of utilizing non-recyclable MSW for fuel production. This study evaluates the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (carbon intensities [CIs]) of FT fuels from non-recyclable MSW. Key issues that could greatly affect the CIs were examined, including fossil carbon content of the MSW, emission implications of diverting non-recyclable MSW from landfills to fuel production, and conversion efficiency. Results show that the CIs of fuels produced from various waste streams range 80–105 gCO2e/MJ, which may exceed the CI of petroleum fuels. Higher fossil carbon content in the MSW feedstock tends to incur higher GHG emissions as biogenic carbon emissions are considered carbon neutral. Meanwhile, diverting different fractions of non-recyclable MSW, such as food waste and low-quality paper, from landfills may result in GHG emissions that may include the potential avoidance of methane emissions and potential sequestration of biogenic carbon that is foregone. To reduce GHG emissions, a carbon capture and sequestration option in the fuel production stage is considered, which could reduce the CI by 53–64 gCO2e/MJ. Carbon fates of different non-recyclable MSW in landfills are further evaluated to determine how they vary and impact the CIs of MSW-derived fuels.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

A biomass map of the Brazilian Amazon from multisource remote sensing

The Amazon Forest, the largest contiguous tropical forest in the world, stores a significant fraction of the carbon on land. Changes in climate and land use affect total carbon stocks, making it critical to continuously update and revise the best estimates for the region, particularly considering changes in forest dynamics. Forest inventory data cover only a tiny fraction of the Amazon region, and the coverage is not sufficient to ensure reliable data interpolation and validation. This paper presents a new forest above-ground biomass map for the Brazilian Amazon and the associated uncertainty both with a resolution of 250 meters and baseline for the satellite dataset the year of 2016 (i.e., the year of the satellite observation). A significant increase in data availability from forest inventories and remote sensing has enabled progress towards high-resolution biomass estimates. This work uses the largest airborne LiDAR database ever collected in the Amazon, mapping 360,000 km 2 through transects distributed in all vegetation categories in the region. The map uses airborne laser scanning (ALS) data calibrated by field forest inventories that are extrapolated to the region using a machine learning approach with inputs from Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), vegetation indices obtained from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite, and precipitation information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). A total of 174 field inventories geolocated using a Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) were used to validate the biomass estimations. The experimental design allowed for a comprehensive representation of several vegetation types, producing an above-ground biomass map varying from a maximum value of 518 Mg ha -1 , a mean of 174 Mg ha -1 , and a standard deviation of 102 Mg ha -1 . This unique dataset enabled a better representation of the regional distribution of the forest biomass and structure, providing further studies and critical information for decision-making concerning forest conservation, planning, carbon emissions estimate, and mechanisms for supporting carbon emissions reductions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Algae Asphalt to Enhance Pavement Sustainability and Performance at Subzero Temperatures

This paper evaluates the potential of algae-derived biobinders as sustainable alternatives for pavement construction. It specifically examines the physicochemical and rheological properties of biomodified binders and their potential to offset carbon emissions when used as partial replacements for conventional petroleum-based asphalt binders. Biosequestration of CO 2 using microalgal cell factories is a promising way of recycling CO 2 into biomass via photosynthesis. Our study demonstrates that incorporating algae-derived binders into asphalt can significantly reduce carbon emissions. Each 1% increase in algae-based biobinder leads to an approximate 4.5% decrease in net carbon emissions. This indicates that a blend containing about 22% biobinder has the potential to achieve carbon neutrality. Blends with higher proportions may even result in net-negative emissions, highlighting a promising strategy for environmentally responsible road construction. In terms of performance, the study shows that certain algae-derived biobinders significantly enhance the cracking resistance of asphalt, particularly under subzero temperatures, by improving its stress-relief capacity. A key contribution of this work is the introduction of polarizability as a novel molecular-level parameter for assessing the compatibility of algae-derived bio-oils with asphalt. By capturing the electronic responsiveness of bio-oil molecules, polarizability serves as a predictive indicator of their interaction potential with asphalt components, providing a new dimension for evaluating the binder performance at the molecular scale. Among the tested materials, the biobinder derived from Haematococcus pluvialis demonstrated particularly strong improvements in resistance to permanent deformation under repeated loading conditions analogous to traffic-induced stress, as well as enhanced resistance to moisture-induced damage. In conclusion, these findings advance the chemistry-driven design of biomass-based binders and highlight a promising pathway toward the development of low-carbon, high-performance, and sustainable infrastructure materials.

Algae↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Yield, Biogenic Emissions, and Carbon Sequestration in Southeastern Cropping Systems With Winter Carinata

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production from lipids is a technologically mature approach for replacing conventional fossil fuel use in the aviation sector, and there is increasing demand for such feedstocks. The oilseed Brassica carinata (known as Ethiopian mustard or simply carinata) is a promising SAF feedstock that can be grown as a supplemental cash crop over the winter fallow season of various annual crop rotations in the Southeast US, avoiding land use changes and potentially achieving some of the soil carbon sequestration and ecosystem service benefits of winter cover crops. However, carinata may require more intensive management than traditional cover crops, potentially leading to additional soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through increased carbon losses from soil tillage and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from nitrogen fertilizer application. In this work, the 2017 version of the process-based DayCent ecosystem model was used to establish initial expectations for the total regional SAF production potential and associated soil GHG emissions when carinata is integrated as a winter crop into the existing crop rotations across its current suitability range in southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and northern Florida. Using data from academic and industry carinata field trials in the region, DayCent was calibrated to reproduce carinata yield, nitrogen response, harvest index, and biomass carbon-to-nitrogen ratio. The resulting model was then used to simulate the integration of carinata every third winter across all 2.1 Mha of actively cultivated cropland in the study area. The model predicted regional average yields of 2.9–3.0 Mg carinata seed per hectare depending on crop management assumptions. That results in the production of more than two million Mg of carinata seed annually across the study area, enough to supply approximately one billion liters of SAF. Conventional management of carinata led to only modest increases in soil carbon storage that were largely offset by additional N2O emissions. Climate-smart management via adopting no-till carinata establishment or using poultry litter as a nitrogen source resulted in a substantial net soil GHG sink (0.23–0.31 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 , or 0.24–0.32 Mg CO2e per Mg of seed produced) at the farms where carinata is cultivated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗