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At least 91 records · Page 5

Soil C stock and CO2 production data for Soong et al. 2021: Effects of five years of soil warming at Blodgett Forest, CA.

Subsoils below 20 cm are an important reservoir in the global carbon cycle, but little is known about their vulnerability under climate change. We measured subsoil carbon in warmed vs control plots of a conifer forest after 4.5 years of whole-soil warming (4°C). We also measured soil CO2 efflux at the surface and soil CO2 concentrations along the soil profile. Over the 4.5 years we observed that warming resulted in a loss of subsoil carbon stocks (−33 ± 11%), primarily from unprotected particulate organic matter. Warming also stimulated a sustained 30 ± 4% increase in soil CO2 efflux due to increased CO2 production through the whole-soil profile. The observed in situ decline in subsoil carbon stocks with warming is now definitive evidence of a positive soil carbon-climate feedback, which could not be concluded based on increases in CO2 effluxes alone. This dataset comprises (1) 13C and C recovery in 2014, 2016, and 2018 1m soil cores sampled in 10cm increments. (2) Monthly surface CO2 fluxes from 2014 to 2018. (3) Monthly gas well sample [CO2] and production data. And (4) density fraction data for three depths of cores recovered in 2017.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Belowground cross-trophic networks impact CH4 and CO2 emissions in degraded alpine peatlands

Belowground organisms forming complex cross-trophic ecological networks are essential for maintaining peatland carbon stability and energy flow. However, how peatland degradation affects the biodiversity and cross-trophic ecological networks of soil communities remains poorly understood. Here, we examined the degradation effects on soil prokaryotes (i.e., bacteria, archaea), fungi and nematodes in alpine peatlands on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, characterized by varying water table depths (indicating degradation levels). We found that peatland degradation, accompanied by significant shifts in soil moisture and pH (P < 0.05), reduced the taxonomic richness and phylogenetic diversity of prokaryotes, fungi, and nematodes, particularly in deeper soil layers (20–50 cm). Crucially, peatland degradation weakened potential cross-trophic interactions within bipartite networks of prokaryotes-nematodes and fungi-nematodes, resulting in less than 6.5 %–28.8 % of unchanged modules. Degradation-induced changes in soil moisture and pH were identified as primary drivers of biodiversity loss and network restructuring. Furthermore, such changes of belowground cross-trophic networks (particularly prokaryote-nematode) were significantly correlated with greenhouse gas emissions, such as decreased CO2 emissions, maintained CH4 emissions (leading to a higher CH4/CO2 ratio in deep layers), and reduced temperature sensitivity (Q10) of soil respiration. These findings underscore the critical need to protect soil biodiversity and cross-trophic networks in peatlands, particularly under the threat of climate change, to preserve peatland carbon stocks and maintain ecosystem stability. Our findings highlight that belowground cross-trophic networks are pivotal to decipher soil carbon dynamics of degraded peatlands and project the fate of peatland carbon stocks under future climate change scenarios.

Cross-trophic networks↗

Soil properties and root characteristics across four lowland Panamanian forests from 0 - 1 m soil depths

Objectives:Fine roots significantly influence ecosystem-scale cycling of nutrients, carbon (C), and water, yet there is limited understanding of how fine root traits vary across and within tropical forests, some of Earth's most C-rich ecosystems. The biomass of fine roots can impact soil carbon storage, as root mortality is a primary source of new carbon to soils. A positive relationship has been observed between fine root biomass and soil carbon stocks in Panama (Cusack et al 2018). Beyond biomass, root characteristics like specific root length (SRL) could also influence soil carbon, as roots with higher SRL are less dense and thinner, potentially decomposing more easily or promoting soil aggregation. Understanding the effects of root morphology and tissue quality on soil carbon storage and with soil properties in general can improve predictions of landscape-scale carbon patterns. We aggregated new data of root biomass, morphology and nutrient content at 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, 20-50 cm and 50-100 cm depth increments across four distinct lowland Panamanian forests and paired with already published datasets (Cusack et al 2018; Cusack and Turner 2020) of soil chemistry from the same sites and soil depths to explore relationship between soil carbon stocks and root characteristics.Datasets included:The datasets provided include .csv and .xlsx files for fine root characteristics and soil chemistry from four different forests across 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, 20-50 cm, and 50-100 cm depth increments. Root characteristics include live fine root biomass, dead fine root biomass, coarse root biomass, specific root length, root diameter, root tissue density, specific root area, root %N, root %C, and root C/N ratio. Soil chemistry data includes total carbon (TC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), bulk density, total phosphorus (TP), available phosphorus (AEM Pi), and various Mehlich-extractable elements such as aluminum, calcium, iron, potassium, manganese, phosphorus, and zinc. Nitrogen content measures include ammonium, nitrate, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON). The dataset also includes total exchangeable bases (TEB) and effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) in both centimoles of charge per kilogram and micromoles of charge per gram. The soil chemistry data was obtained from Cusack et al (2018) and Cusack and Turner (2020) and paired with root characteristics data for the same depth increments and sites. Additionally, a .kml file is provided with coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study across four forests (n = 8 plots per site). Root data was averaged across these 8 plots per site and soil data was collected in one pit in each site. This dataset serves as baseline data before a throughfall exclusion experiment, Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drying (PARCHED), was implemented. No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas: Open source soil data and tools supporting blue carbon research and policy

Abstract Quantifying carbon fluxes into and out of coastal soils is critical to meeting greenhouse gas reduction and coastal resiliency goals. Numerous ‘blue carbon’ studies have generated, or benefitted from, synthetic datasets. However, the community those efforts inspired does not have a centralized, standardized database of disaggregated data used to estimate carbon stocks and fluxes. In this paper, we describe a data structure designed to standardize data reporting, maximize reuse, and maintain a chain of credit from synthesis to original source. We introduce version 1.0.0. of the Coastal Carbon Library, a global database of 6723 soil profiles representing blue carbon‐storing systems including marshes, mangroves, tidal freshwater forests, and seagrasses. We also present the Coastal Carbon Atlas, an R‐shiny application that can be used to visualize, query, and download portions of the Coastal Carbon Library. The majority (4815) of entries in the database can be used for carbon stock assessments without the need for interpolating missing soil variables, 533 are available for estimating carbon burial rate, and 326 are useful for fitting dynamic soil formation models. Organic matter density significantly varied by habitat with tidal freshwater forests having the highest density, and seagrasses having the lowest. Future work could involve expansion of the synthesis to include more deep stock assessments, increasing the representation of data outside of the U.S., and increasing the amount of data available for mangroves and seagrasses, especially carbon burial rate data. We present proposed best practices for blue carbon data including an emphasis on disaggregation, data publication, dataset documentation, and use of standardized vocabulary and templates whenever appropriate. To conclude, the Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas serve as a general example of a grassroots F.A.I.R. (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data effort demonstrating how data producers can coordinate to develop tools relevant to policy and decision‐making.

Holmquist, James R.↗

A Numerical Study of the Effect of Periodic Nutrient Supply on Pathways of Carbon in a Coastal Upwelling Regime

A size-based ecosystem model was modified to include periodic upwelling events and used to evaluate the effect of episodic nutrient supply on the standing stock, carbon uptake, and carbon flow into mesozooplankton grazing and sinking flux in a coastal upwelling regime. Two ecosystem configurations were compared: a single food chain made up of net phytoplankton and mesozooplankton (one autotroph and one heterotroph, A1H1), and three interconnected food chains plus bacteria (three autotrophs and four heterotrophs, A3H4). The carbon pathways in the A1H1 simulations were under stronger physical control than those of the A3H4 runs, where the small size classes are not affected by frequent upwelling events. In the more complex food web simulations, the microbial pathway determines the total carbon uptake and grazing rates, and regenerated nitrogen accounts for more than half of the total primary production for periods of 20 days or longer between events. By contrast, new production, export of carbon through sinking and mesozooplankton grazing are more important in the A1H1 simulations. In the A3H4 simulations, the turnover time scale of the autotroph biomass increases as the period between upwelling events increases, because of the larger contribution of slow-growing net phytoplankton. The upwelling period was characterized for three upwelling sites from the alongshore wind speed measured by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and the corresponding model output compared with literature data. This validation exercise for three upwelling sites and a downstream embayment suggests that standing stock, carbon uptake and size fractionation were best supported by the A3H4 simulations, while the simulated sinking fluxes are not distinguishable in the two configurations.

Carr, Mary-Elena↗

Fungal community composition predicts forest carbon storage at a continental scale

Forest soils harbor hyper-diverse microbial communities which fundamentally regulate carbon and nutrient cycling across the globe. Directly testing hypotheses on how microbiome diversity is linked to forest carbon storage has been difficult, due to a lack of paired data on microbiome diversity and in situ observations of forest carbon accumulation and storage. Here, we investigated the relationship between soil microbiomes and forest carbon across 238 forest inventory plots spanning 15 European countries. We show that the composition and diversity of fungal, but not bacterial, species is tightly coupled to both forest biotic conditions and a seven-fold variation in tree growth rates and biomass carbon stocks when controlling for the effects of dominant tree type, climate, and other environmental factors. This linkage is particularly strong for symbiotic endophytic and ectomycorrhizal fungi known to directly facilitate tree growth. Since tree growth rates in this system are closely and positively correlated with belowground soil carbon stocks, we conclude that fungal composition is a strong predictor of overall forest carbon storage across the European continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large Trees Dominate Carbon Storage in Forests East of the Cascade Crest in the United States Pacific Northwest

Large-diameter trees store disproportionally massive amounts of carbon and are a major driver of carbon cycle dynamics in forests worldwide. In the temperate forests of the western United States, proposed changes to Forest Plans would significantly weaken protections for a large portion of trees greater than 53 cm (21 inches) in diameter (herein referred to as “large-diameter trees”) across 11.5 million acres (~4.7 million ha) of National Forest lands. This study is among the first to report how carbon storage in large trees and forest ecosystems would be affected by a proposed policy. We examined the proportion of large-diameter trees on National Forest lands east of the Cascade Mountains crest in Oregon and Washington, their contribution to overall aboveground carbon (AGC) storage, and the potential reduction in carbon stocks resulting from widespread harvest. We analyzed forest inventory data collected on 3,335 plots and found that large trees play a major role in the accumulated carbon stock of these forests. Tree AGC (kg) increases sharply with tree diameter at breast height (DBH; cm) among five dominant tree species. Large trees accounted for 2.0 to 3.7% of all stems (DBH ≥ 1” or 2.54 cm) among five tree species; but held 33 to 46% of the total AGC stored by each species. Pooled across the five dominant species, large trees accounted for 3% of the 636,520 trees occurring on the inventory plots but stored 42% of the total AGC. A recently proposed large-scale vegetation management project that involved widespread harvest of large trees, mostly grand fir, would have removed ~44% of the AGC stored in these large-diameter trees, and released a large amount of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Given the urgency of keeping additional carbon out of the atmosphere and continuing carbon accumulation from the atmosphere to protect the climate system, it would be prudent to continue protecting ecosystems with large trees for their carbon stores, and also for their co-benefits of habitat for biodiversity, resilience to drought and fire, and microclimate buffering under future climate extremes.

21-inch rule↗

Experimental Soil Warming Impacts Soil Moisture and Plant Water Stress and Thereby Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics (Blodgett, CA)

This dataset contains data on daily soil temperature, moisture and flux, and soil carbon stock and root biomass across a soil profile down to 100 cm depth at Blodgett Forest Research Station, CA, USA. These data were generated to determine if modeling of an experimental soil warming of 4C showed increased soil CO2 emissions and changes in bulk soil carbon stocks with depth consistent with field observations, as part of the study: Riley et al. (2025) Experimental Soil Warming Impacts Soil Moisture and Plant Water Stress and Thereby Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. This research was performed within the framework of the TES Belowground Biogeochemistry SFA project, in particular association with a 1 m-deep experimental soil heating experiment at the University of California Blodgett Forest Research Station, California (120 ° 39′40′′W; 38 ° 54′43′′N). Continuous data were collected at the plot level, and bulk soil carbon and root biomass were sampled once a year from each plot from 0-100 cm, in 10 cm intervals. Measurements relevant to the current study include soil temperature and soil volumetric water content measured continuously at multiple depths in the top meter; fine root biomass and SOC stocks measured from annual soil cores. Soil flux was continuously monitored using a LI-8100 Automated CO2 Flux System in conjunction with the LI-8150 Multiplexer (Licor, Nebraska, USA). Soil flux was determined using SoilFluxPro software, with flux values showing an R² fit of less than 0.9 being excluded from the analysis. Data were collected from each paired plot (1-3): one control (C) and one heated (H).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems

Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO 2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Process-Oriented Analysis of Dominant Sources of Uncertainty in the Land Carbon Sink

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO 2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

Attribution↗

Soil Respiration Response to Simulated Precipitation Change Depends on Ecosystem Type and Study Duration

Soil respiration—the flow of biologically-generated CO 2 from the soil surface to the atmosphere—is a major component of global carbon cycling, but the long-term response of this flux to altered precipitation regimes remains uncertain, due to different responses of soil respiration in distinct ecosystems with varying degrees of water limitation. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the role of soil characteristics (organic carbon stock and clay content), study duration, and ecosystem type (e.g., forest, grassland, etc) in modifying the response of soil respiration to precipitation change. In general, decreased precipitation (N = 128 effect size pairs) decreased soil respiration rates. In contrast, increased precipitation (N = 141) had a more variable and on-average weak positive effect on this flux; significantly increasing soil respiration only in desert ecosystems. The long-term response of ecosystems varied, with those that are less constrained by water-availability (e.g., forests) showing acclimation over time to altered precipitation. Soil organic carbon stock strongly modified the response of soil respiration to decreased precipitation (p < 0.0001), but only weakly modified the response to increased precipitation (p < 0.01). Our results suggest that ecosystems with limited soil water-holding capacity and strong inherent water-limitation will show long-term dynamic change in soil respiration regardless of the direction of precipitation change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving sustainable tropical forest management with voluntary carbon markets

Due to a rapidly changing climate, voluntary carbon markets are gaining momentum and should be leveraged to improve and expand tropical sustainable forest management plans, limiting carbon emissions and enhancing critical carbon sinks. By sequestering more carbon than any other terrestrial ecosystem — ~1 Pg C yr –1 — tropical forests provide crucial natural climate solutions and opportunities in the evolving voluntary carbon market. Here, we argue that some issues with the current sustainable management of tropical forests can be addressed using carbon-focused sustainable forest management (SFM + C) to leverage financial resources for tropical forest carbon storage and sequestration. We suggest an extended harvest cycle in SFM + C and calculate an associated potential increase in aboveground carbon stocks of commercial timber of 1.26 Mg C ha –1 after each cycle in the Brazilian Amazon. The additional carbon storage due to a longer harvest cycle can generate carbon credits worth 152.6 (SD 9.2) US dollars per hectare in 40 years. Considering an average cost of 180 BRL per m3 of commercial timber delivered to the sawmill, an SFM + C plan with a 40-year cycle could generate 28.7% (SD 2.5) more profit than 35-year cycles by combining timber and carbon revenues. A robust carbon price could incentivize the further extension of harvest cycles, providing a monetary return that offsets the opportunity cost intrinsic to harvesting under longer cycles. Lastly, we highlight research needs to support tropical SFM + C, which can be part of a global collective effort to limit global warming to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A scalable framework for quantifying field-level agricultural carbon outcomes

Agriculture contributes nearly a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which is motivating interest in adopting certain farming practices that have the potential to reduce GHG emissions or sequester carbon in soil. The related GHG emission (including N 2 O and CH 4 ) and changes in soil carbon stock are defined here as “agricultural carbon outcomes”. Accurate quantification of agricultural carbon outcomes is the basis for achieving emission reductions for agriculture, but existing approaches for measuring carbon outcomes (including direct measurements, emission factors, and process-based modeling) fall short of achieving the required accuracy and scalability necessary to support credible, verifiable, and cost-effective measurement and improvement of these carbon outcomes. Here we propose a foundational and scalable framework to quantify field-level carbon outcomes for farmland, which is based on the holistic carbon balance of the agroecosystem: Agroecosystem Carbon Outcomes = Environment (E) × Management (M) × Crop (C). Following a comprehensive review of the scientific challenges associated with existing approaches, as well as their tradeoffs between cost and accuracy, we propose that the most viable path for the quantification of field-level carbon outcomes in agricultural land is through an effective integration of various approaches (e.g. diverse observations, sensor/in-situ data, and modeling), defined as the “System-of-Systems” solution. Such a “System-of-Systems” solution should simultaneously comprise the following components: (1) scalable collection of ground truth data and cross-scale sensing of environment variables (E), management practices (M), and crop conditions (C) at the local field level; (2) advanced modeling with necessary processes to support the quantification of carbon outcomes; (3) systematic Model-Data Fusion (MDF), i.e. robust and efficient methods to integrate sensing data and models at each local farmland level; (4) high computation efficiency and artificial intelligence (AI) to scale to millions of individual fields with low cost; and (5) robust and multi-tier validation systems and infrastructures to ensure solution fidelity and true scalability, i.e. the ability of a solution to perform robustly with accepted accuracy on all targeted fields. In this regard, we provide here the detailed scientific rationale, current progress, and future research and development (R&D) priorities to achieve different components of the “System-of-Systems” solution, thus accomplishing the Environment×Management×Crop framework to quantify field-level agricultural carbon outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Can large herbivores enhance ecosystem carbon persistence?

There is growing interest in aligning the wildlife conservation and restoration agenda with climate change mitigation goals. However, the presence of large herbivores tends to reduce aboveground biomass in some open-canopy ecosystems, leading to the possibility that large herbivore restoration may negatively influence ecosystem carbon storage. Furthermore, belowground carbon storage is often ignored in these systems, despite the wide recognition of soils as the largest actively-cycling terrestrial carbon pool. Here, we suggest a shift away from a main focus on vegetation carbon stocks, towards inclusion of whole ecosystem carbon persistence, in future assessments of large herbivore effects on long-term carbon storage. Failure to do so may lead to counterproductive biodiversity and climate impacts of land management actions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A life cycle and product type based estimator for quantifying the carbon stored in wood products

Background: Timber harvesting and industrial wood processing laterally transfer the carbon stored in forest sectors to wood products creating a wood products carbon pool. The carbon stored in wood products is allocated to end-use wood products (e.g., paper, furniture), landfill, and charcoal. Wood products can store substantial amounts of carbon and contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse effects. Therefore, accurate accounts for the size of wood products carbon pools for different regions are essential to estimating the land-atmosphere carbon exchange by using the bottom-up approach of carbon stock change. Results: To quantify the carbon stored in wood products, we developed a state-of-the-art estimator (Wood Products Carbon Storage Estimator, WPsCS Estimator) that includes the wood products disposal, recycling, and waste wood decomposition processes. The wood products carbon pool in this estimator has three subpools: (1) end-use wood products, (2) landfill, and (3) charcoal carbon. In addition, it has a user-friendly interface, which can be used to easily parameterize and calibrate an estimation. To evaluate its performance, we applied this estimator to account for the carbon stored in wood products made from the timber harvested in Maine, USA, and the carbon storage of wood products consumed in the United States. Conclusion: The WPsCS Estimator can efficiently and easily quantify the carbon stored in harvested wood products for a given region over a specific period, which was demonstrated with two illustrative examples. In addition, WPsCS Estimator has a user-friendly interface, and all parameters can be easily modified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Human impacts on soil carbon dynamics of deep-rooted Amazonian forests and effect of land use change on the carbon cycle in Amazon soils

The main objective of these NASA-funded projects is to improve our understanding of land-use impacts on soil carbon dynamics in the Amazon Basin. Soil contains approximately one half of tropical forest carbon stocks, yet the fate of this carbon following forest impoverishment is poorly studied. Our mechanistics approach draws on numerous techniques for measuring soil carbon outputs, inputs, and turnover time in the soils of adjacent forest and pasture ecosystems at our research site in Paragominas, state of Para, Brazil. We are scaling up from this site-specific work by analyzing Basin-wide patterns in rooting depth and rainfall seasonality, the two factors that we believe should explain much of the variation in tropical soil carbons dynamics. In this report, we summarize ongoing measurements at our Paragominas study site, progress in employing new field data to understand soil C dynamics, and some surprising results from our regional, scale-up work.

Nepstad, Daniel↗

Forest Carbon Emissions from Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Biome

Land use, land use change, and forestry accounted for two-thirds of Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions profile in 2005. Amazon deforestation has declined by more than 80% over the past decade, yet Brazil's forests extend beyond the Amazon biome. Rapid expansion of cropland in the neighboring Cerrado biome has the potential to undermine climate mitigation efforts if emissions from dry forest and woodland conversion negate some of the benefits of avoided Amazon deforestation. Here, we used satellite data on cropland expansion, forest cover, and vegetation carbon stocks to estimate annual gross forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado biome. Nearly half of the Cerrado met Brazil's definition of forest cover in 2000 (greater than or equal to 0.5 ha with greater than or equal to 10% canopy cover). In areas of established crop production, conversion of both forest and non-forest Cerrado formations for cropland declined during 2003-2013. However, forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion increased over the past decade in Matopiba, a new frontier of agricultural production that includes portions of Maranhao, Tocantins, Piau­, and Bahia states. Gross carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado averaged 16.28 Tg C yr (exp -1) between 2003 and 2013, with forest-to-cropland conversion accounting for 29% of emissions. The fraction of forest carbon emissions from Matopiba was much higher; between 2010-2013, large-scale cropland conversion in Matopiba contributed 45% of total Cerrado forest carbon emissions. Carbon emissions from Cerrado-tocropland transitions offset 5-7% of the avoided emissions from reduced Amazon deforestation rates during 2011-2013. Comprehensive national estimates of forest carbon fluxes, including all biomes, are critical to detect cross-biome leakage within countries and achieve climate mitigation targets to reduce emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry.

remote sensing↗