Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Climate impacts”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A Field and Laboratory Study to Characterize Fault Prevalence in Residential Comfort Systems

This report describes a project whose goal was to determine the prevalence of residential comfort system faults. The focus is on air conditioners and heat pumps, and on key faults that can occur during installation and have significant impacts on performance: (1) incorrect refrigerant charge level (undercharge or overcharge); (2) indoor coil airflow rate; (3) liquid line restrictions; (4) non-condensable gas in the refrigerant; and (5) duct leakage. In addition to quantifying fault prevalence, we collected metadata that could be studied to determine whether there are correlations that suggest drivers of fault prevalence, such as regional variations in practice, economic factors, climatic impacts, and others.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Arctic

The Arctic environment in 2024 continued on a trajectory that has put it in a state far different from that of the twentieth century. Ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to quickly warm the Arctic, resulting in rapid changes in the cryosphere that are driving cascading impacts to climate, ecological, and societal systems. Many weather- and climate-related impacts in the Arctic are the result of compounding change, such as increased riverbank erosion, which is proximately due to increased river discharge from higher seasonal precipitation, yet is also exacerbated by thawing permafrost. However, even individual storms occur within very different ocean and ice conditions than were typically present in the late twentieth century. As a result, the impacts, including high winds, excessive precipitation, and coastal inundation, may be quite different nowadays, as exemplified by the October 2024 storm in northwest Alaska that produced severe coastal flooding in several communities. To share some of these impacts with a wider audience, select extreme weather impacts around the greater Arctic have been highlighted through the inclusion of sidebars in recent State of the Climate Arctic chapters (e.g., Benestad et al. 2023; Thoman et al. 2024).

Thoman, Richard L. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Impacts of Marine Methanethiol Emissions and Chemistry in the Atmosphere

Oceanic emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) have long been known to influence aerosol particle composition, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration, and Earth’s radiative budget. However, the impact of oceanic emissions of methanethiol (MeSH), a sulfur compound produced by the same oceanic precursor as DMS, has been relatively less explored. The gas-phase oxidation of MeSH has a higher effective yield of SO 2 and a shorter oxidative lifetime compared to DMS, highlighting the relevance of this pathway for the modeled representation of particle formation, growth, and CCN abundance in the marine atmosphere. Here, we use the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to explore possible scenarios representative of specific environmental conditions and MeSH emission schemes based on previous experimental studies. We further implement and test previously reported chemical mechanisms for MeSH oxidation, along with additional improvements, highlighting key uncertainties and sensitivities for regional and global sulfur budgets. We place our results in the context of recent modeling updates to DMS chemistry and cloud processing, which further impact SO 2 production in the marine atmosphere in parallel with MeSH oxidation. Within the overall marine sulfur budget, our findings highlight that MeSH plays a significant role in SO 2 production in the marine atmosphere, contributing to regional surface layer concentration increases of up to 40–60%. These results point to the importance of MeSH for efforts aimed at improving the modeled representation of sulfur spatiotemporal patterns relevant to air quality predictions and climate impact assessments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Different Strategies of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Would Significantly Affect Climate Extreme Mitigation

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been proposed as a potential supplement to mitigate some climate impacts of anthropogenic warming. Using Community Earth System Model ensemble simulation results, we analyze the response of temperature and precipitation extremes to two different SAI strategies: one injects SO 2 at the equator to stabilize global mean temperature and the other injects SO 2 at multiple locations to stabilize global mean temperature as well as the interhemispheric and equator‐to‐pole temperature gradients. Our analysis shows that in the late 21st century, compared with the present‐day climate, both equatorial and multi‐location injection lead to reduced hot extremes in the tropics, corresponding to overcooling of the mean climate state. In mid‐to‐high latitude regions, in comparison to the present‐day climate, substantial decreases in cold extremes are observed under both equatorial and multi‐location injection, corresponding to residual winter warming of the mean climate state. Both equatorial and multi‐location injection reduce precipitation extremes in the tropics below the present‐day level, associated with the decrease in mean precipitation. Overall, for most regions, temperature and precipitation extremes show reduced change in response to multi‐location injection than to equatorial injection, corresponding to reduced mean climate change for multi‐location injection. In comparison with equatorial injection, in response to multi‐location injection, most land regions experience fewer years with significant change in cold extremes from the present‐day level, and most tropical regions experience fewer years with significant change in hot extremes. The design of SAI strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate extremes merits further study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi‐Volatile Organic Partitioning Improves Simulation of Biomass Burning Aerosol Mixing State Evolution

Biomass burning aerosols significantly contribute to atmospheric composition and radiative forcing, with black carbon (BC) mixing states critically influencing optical properties and climate impacts. Recent field observations reveal a systematic three‐phase evolution in BC coating thickness during plume aging: rapid initial growth, quasi‐equilibrium, and gradual coating loss. Current models misrepresent this evolution due to oversimplified treatment of organic aerosol volatility. Here we demonstrate that incorporating semi‐volatile organic partitioning through the MATRIX‐VBS model fundamentally improves simulation accuracy compared to traditional non‐volatile approaches. Evaluation against four field campaigns spanning fresh to aged plumes shows MATRIX‐VBS successfully captures the observed three‐phase pattern, and global application reveals universal three‐phase evolution with substantial regional variations. These advances address critical gaps in aerosol mixing state representation and provide essential improvements for climate model predictions in wildfire‐affected regions.

Gao, Chloe Yuchao [Fudan Univ., Shanghai (China); ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strategizing emission cuts in China to mitigate short-term warming from clean air policies

Aerosol-cloud interactions remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of anthropogenic climate forcing. Reducing aerosols to achieve air quality improvement and climate goals can cause unintended warming due to the weakening of aerosol cooling. Here we investigate the climate impacts of spatially optimized sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission reduction under a carbon-neutral pathway in China. We find that targeting reduction in highly polluted regions in China significantly suppresses the rise in effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF aci ) during 2020–2060. Owing to the nonlinear aerosol-cloud interaction, the optimized emission reduction strategy limits the regional average increase in ERF aci of more than 0.89 W m −2 to less than 0.13 W m −2 in the short-term future during 2020–2040 and weakens the ERF aci increase by two-thirds in 2060 over China. These findings demonstrate the critical role of targeted emission control in mitigating short-term climate risks while pursuing air quality goals.

Zhu, Yitong [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Net-Zero Ethylene: On the Sustainability, Economics, and Scalability of Synthetic and Fossil Production Pathways

The ethylene industry has contributed over 260 million tons of CO 2 annually, warranting a more sustainable approach. The conversion of CO 2 and H 2 O into ethylene is an appealing technology capable of decoupling chemical production from fossil fuels. However, the large energy demand from this process can potentially lead to adverse environmental impacts. Here, in this article, we critically analyze the economic viability, environmental impact, and scalability of the conversion of CO 2 to ethylene via electrochemical reduction (CO 2 R) and compare this with those of CO 2 -neutral fossil routes utilizing carbon capture and direct air capture. Ethylene derived from CO 2 may be economically competitive under optimistic conditions; however, its large energy requirements pose environmental and scalability challenges. Meeting forecast 2050 ethylene demand using CO 2 R would require half of all electricity produced globally today, and, if powered by solar PV, may have greater CO 2 emissions than current petrochemical ethylene production, negating the purpose of this technology. Using Carbon Capture and Storage and Direct Air Capture to decarbonize petrochemical pathways would require roughly an order of magnitude less energy but would have disproportionate health and climate impacts. Lastly, the analysis highlights the importance of low-carbon energy sources to ensure sustainable CO 2 R ethylene production.

CO2R↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking greenhouse gas emissions from US wastewater treatment for targeted reduction

Here, in this study, to assess the national climate impact of wastewater treatment and inform decarbonization, we assembled a comprehensive greenhouse gas inventory of 15,863 facilities in the contiguous USA. Considering location and treatment configurations, we modelled on-site CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 production and emissions associated with energy, chemical inputs and solids disposal. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated median national emissions at 47 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per year, with on-site process CH 4 and N 2 O emissions exceeding current government estimates by 41%. Treatment configurations with anaerobic digesters are responsible for 16 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per year of fugitive methane, outweighing benefits achieved through on-site electricity generation. Systems designed for nutrient removal have the highest greenhouse gas emissions intensity, attributable to energy requirements and N 2 O production, demonstrating current trade-offs between meeting water quality and climate objectives. We analysed key sensitivities and included a geospatial analysis to highlight the scale and distribution of opportunities for reducing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benefits and challenges in deployment of low global warming potential R290 refrigerant for room air conditioning equipment in California

High global warming potential gases (“high GWP”) are the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas emissions in the world and in California and are primarily used as refrigerant gases in refrigeration and cooling equipment. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) refrigerants are the dominant type of high GWP gases with GWP values thousands of times larger than CO 2 on a 100-year timescale. Refrigerant-grade propane (“R290”) has a very low GWP (GWP = 3.3) with good thermodynamic properties and good cooling equipment performance but the flammability of any leaked refrigerant makes equipment design, handling, and maintenance critical factors to manage. This paper focuses on the potential climate benefits and costs of transitioning to R290 refrigerant in small room air conditioning (AC) units, specifically window AC, packaged terminal AC/heat pumps (PTAC/PTHP), and mini-split heat pumps. Overall climate impact for a transition to all three types of air conditioning units in the 2022–2051 timeframe is found to be from 15 to 64 million metric tons of greenhouse gas (GHG) savings in California with a cost of saved CO 2 eq that ranges from $14.50 per ton of CO 2 eq saved to -$50.30 per ton of CO 2 eq saved (net savings) depending on whether the baseline refrigerant is R32 or R410A and depending on the relative energy efficiency for R290 units compared to baseline units.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

CMIP7 data request: land and land ice priorities and opportunities

The Land and Land Ice Theme in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) represents the current understanding of physical processes in land surface ecosystems, hydrology, cryosphere, and their physical interactions with other Earth system components. Simulations from Earth system models (ESMs) could provide crucial information for assessing planetary safety, such as critical tipping elements, and be used to inform climate risks for improving climate impact assessments and policy decisions. This paper presents a collaborative effort to identify scientific opportunities in the Land and Land Ice Theme of the CMIP7 Data Request. The proposed opportunities build upon advances in ESMs, including new freshwater system and land ice processes being included in CMIP7, as well as the scientific community's demand for high-frequency and sub-grid-scale land surface outputs. In total, 25 variable groups that contain 716 variables have been identified to be potentially available to the broad scientific audience for performing analysis in land–atmosphere coupling, hydrological processes and freshwater systems, glacier and ice sheet mass balance and their influence on the sea levels, land use, and plant phenology. Key reflections from this data request effort include advocacy for closer engagement between the user community and modeling groups, reduction in the technical barriers to tracking existing parameters and defining new variables, and more streamlined variable management. These will be essential to enhance the usability and reliability of CMIP7 outputs for climate and Earth system research and applications to a broad audience that relies on the CMIP7 endeavor.

Li, Yue [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2026

The role of local shipping emissions in aerosol-cloud interactions in the central Arctic

Arctic shipping is projected to increase as sea ice retreats, yet the impact of modern low-sulfur ship emissions on Arctic clouds and radiation remain poorly constrained. We use year-long in situ observations from the MOSAiC expedition to characterize ship-aerosol-cloud interactions for an icebreaker burning ultra-low sulfur fuel (0.1% mass per mass). Exhaust plumes were found to be strongly enriched in Aitken-mode particles, organic aerosol, and black carbon, but showed no detectable enhancement in particulate sulfate. Despite reduced hygroscopicity relative to ambient aerosols, ship emissions substantially increased local cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. A droplet activation parameterization was applied to quantify responses in cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) to ship-induced perturbations in low-level Arctic clouds. In winter, abundant background accumulation-mode particles from Arctic haze supplied nearly all cloud droplets, while additional particles from ship emissions had little impact on N d . In contrast, during summer months, when unperturbed background aerosol concentrations are low, ship emissions nearly doubled N d compared to average background conditions and increased N d by a factor of five compared to very clean background conditions (25th percentile of background aerosol number concentrations). Longwave radiative transfer simulations for typical conditions of summer Arctic low-level clouds/fog suggest that these ship-induced increases in N d locally (i.e. <100 km downwind) lead to enhanced net surface longwave fluxes and consequent warming, primarily for optically thin clouds (liquid water path (LWP) ⩽ 30 g·m −2 ). For LWP = 10 g · m −2 , ship emissions lead to an increase of 1 W · m −2 in cloud longwave forcing at the surface compared to average unperturbed conditions (+7% relative increase), and up to 4 W · m −2 when compared to very clean background conditions (+22% relative increase). Even ultra-low sulfur fuel emissions can therefore locally and episodically modify Arctic cloud microphysics and radiative properties, especially during summer, implying that future increases in Arctic shipping could have non-negligible regional climate impacts.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct air capture with amino acid solvent: Operational optimization using a crossflow air‐liquid contactor

Direct air capture (DAC) is a negative emission technology for removing CO2 from the atmosphere to maintain the CO 2 level within a reasonable range so as to address greenhouse effects. In this study, the operational optimization of lab-scale DAC has been investigated using a crossflow air-liquid contactor loaded with a three dimensionally printed Gyroid packing structure and a potassium sarcosinate solvent. The effects of various parameters, including feed air flow rate, liquid solvent flow rate, contactor geometry, and ambient temperature, are examined. The results demonstrate that the Gyroid packing design achieves comparable CO 2 capture performance to conventional packed beds but with a significantly lower pressure drop of up to 77.8%, suggesting its potential as an efficient and cost-effective solution for gas–liquid contactors in DAC. Additionally, the study explores the climate impact on CO 2 capture performance and finds that as the air temperature increases from 35 to 95°F at a fixed relative humidity of 80%, the CO 2 capture rate increased from 23.2% to 46.8% with better stability. The research highlights the importance of optimizing contactor design and operational conditions to improve the CO 2 capture rate and feasibility of DAC systems as a negative emission technology for addressing greenhouse effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Systematic Evaluation of Atmospheric Forcing, Surface Datasets, and Mesh Effects on Kilometer-Scale Land Surface and River Modeling

Earth system models are advancing toward kilometer-scale resolution to capture local climate impacts and extremes. High-resolution land and river modeling depends on multiple factors, including mesh, surface datasets, and atmospheric forcing, but their relative effects at kilometer scales remain unquantified. We evaluated five Energy Exascale Earth System Model land and river configurations over the Mid-Atlantic region using two mesh (1/8° structured versus variable-resolution unstructured mesh), two surface datasets (default versus newly developed), and three atmospheric forcings (NLDAS2, MSWX, GSWP). Evaluation against satellite, reanalysis, and in situ benchmarks across water, energy, and carbon cycles quantifies how these factors affect model performance. Forcing selection produces the largest bias reductions (12-99% across variables), followed by surface datasets (7-75%) and mesh (up to 21%). Forcing effects vary by variable, with MSWX reducing biases for snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, albedo, temperature, and gross primary productivity, GSWP for snow cover and runoff, and NLDAS for soil moisture and streamflow. The use of newly developed surface datasets improves gross primary productivity (58% bias reduction) and evapotranspiration but increase soil moisture and albedo biases due to current modeling limitations. Variable-resolution unstructured mesh improves the simulation of small-basin streamflow through better capturing drainage networks, though mesh minimally affects other land variables. These findings provide important guidance for high-resolution modeling development and actionable science.

Land and River modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Detailed Reaction Mechanism for Thiosulfate Oxidation by Ozone in Aqueous Environments

The ozone oxidation, or ozonation, of thiosulfate is an important reaction for wastewater processing, where it is used for remediation of mining effluents, and for studying aerosol chemistry, where its fast reaction rate makes it an excellent model reaction. Although thiosulfate ozonation has been studied since the 1950s, challenges remain in developing a realistic reaction mechanism that can satisfactorily account for all observed products with a sequence of elementary reaction steps. Here, we present novel measurements using trapped microdroplets to study the pH-dependent thiosulfate ozonation kinetics. We detect known products and intermediates, including SO32-, SO42-, S3O62-, and S4O62-, establishing agreement with the literature. However, we identify S2O42- as a new reaction intermediate and find that the currently accepted mechanism does not directly explain observed pH effects. Thus, we develop a new mechanism, which incorporates S2O42- as an intermediate and uses elementary steps to explain the pH dependence of thiosulfate ozonation. The proposed mechanism is tested using a kinetic model benchmarked to the experiments presented here, then compared to literature data. We demonstrate good agreement between the proposed thiosulfate ozonation mechanism and experiments, suggesting that the insights in this paper can be leveraged in wastewater treatment and in understanding potential climate impacts.

Deal, Alexandra M↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Evolution of Mass and Physical Properties of Atmospheric Organic Aerosol under Solar Irradiance

Organic aerosol (OA) particles constitute a substantial fraction of sub-micron particulate mass in the atmosphere and play a critical role in climate system. OA undergoes dynamic aging processes in the atmosphere, with photolytic aging induced by ultraviolet solar irradiance being an important yet poorly characterized mechanism. Knowledge gaps persist regarding the role of volatility transformations during photolytic aging on the OA mass decay kinetics and the evolution of climate-relevant properties, such as hygroscopicity, hindering the model evaluation of OA spatiotemporal distributions and atmospheric budgets. In this study, we conduct isothermal photolytic aging experiments on both laboratory-generated secondary organic aerosols and ambient-collected particles from urban Atlanta, utilizing a high-sensitivity Quartz Crystal Microbalance. Our results reveal that photolytic aging reduces 40–66% of the low-volatility OA mass with lifetimes ranging from 8 to 200 hours under solar irradiance, and 44–92% of the photolytic mass loss is through slow evaporation of semi- or intermediate-volatile products, kinetically limited by their volatility. We observe up to ±50% changes in OA hygroscopicity with the transformation of fresh OA to photo-recalcitrant low-volatility products, associated with changes in oxygen-to-carbon ratio and molecular weight. A kinetic model incorporating photolytic volatility transformation provides a cohesive explanation for the observed photolysis-induced changes in mass, volatility, and hygroscopicity. Our results can help constrain model representation of the dynamic evolutions of mass and climate-relevant properties during photolytic aging processes of the ambient OA, improving our understanding of OA atmospheric behavior and climate impact.

Bai, Bin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Liquid–Liquid Phase Separation of Submicrometer Proxies for Atmospheric Secondary Aerosol

Liquid–liquid phase separation (LLPS) of atmospheric aerosols can significantly impact climate, air quality, and human health. However, their complex composition, small size, and history-dependent properties result in great uncertainty in the modeling of aerosol phase state and atmospheric processes. Herein, using cryogenic transmission electron microscopy (cryo-TEM), we examined model submicron aerosols composed of organic compounds and ammonium sulfate, and established a parameterization for the separation relative humidity (SRH) that accounts for chemical composition, particle size, and equilibration time. We evaluated different variables that describe chemical composition: O/C ratio, partition coefficient, solubility, molar mass, and polarizability. The O/C ratio fits the SRH of micrometer droplets best, and by using a scaling factor to translate the micrometer SRH parameterization to submicron aerosols, we incorporate the effects of size and equilibration time. The measured scaling factor for the submicron mean SRH (30nm – 1μm, 20 min equilibration times) is 0.80, the factor becomes 1 with equilibration time over 1 hour, and is equal to 0, meaning that SRH is absent, when the aerosol dry diameter is smaller than 30 nm. Furthermore, our parameterization will aid in universal SRH modeling, potentially leading to more accurate predictions of aerosol mass, optical properties, hygroscopicity, and heterogeneous chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Detection of Primary Biological Aerosol Particles Using Machine Learning and Single-Particle Measurement

Accurately identifying primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) using analytical techniques poses inherent challenges due to their resemblance to other atmospheric carbonaceous particles. Here, we present a study of an enhanced method for detecting PBAPs by combining single-particle measurement with advanced supervised machine learning (SML) techniques. We analyzed ambient particles from a variety of environments and lab-generated standards, focusing on chemical composition for traditional rule-based and clustering approaches and incorporating morphological features into the SML approaches, neural networks and XGBoost, for improved accuracy. This study demonstrates that SML methods outperform traditional methods in quantifying PBAPs, achieving significant improvements in precision, recall, F1-score, and accuracy, leading to an increased number of detected PBAPs by at least 19%. The adaptability of the proposed XGBoost-based SML model is showcased in comparison to traditional methods in categorizing PBAPs for blind data sets from different geographical locations. Two field case studies were investigated, over agricultural land and Amazonia rain forest, representing relatively low and high concentrations of PBAPs, respectively, where XGBoost consistently detected up to 3.5 times more PBAPs than traditional methods. Precise detection of PBAPs in the atmosphere could significantly improve the prediction of climatic impacts by them.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗