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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Health outcomes among offspring of US Coast Guard responders to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, 2010–2011

To evaluate the potential for adverse health outcomes among infants born to US Coast Guard (USCG) responders to the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill disaster. Department of Defense Birth and Infant Health Research programme data identified a cohort of singleton infants born 2010–2011 to USCG personnel in the DWH Oil Spill Coast Guard Cohort study. Infants were included if their military parent (‘sponsor’) responded to the oil spill during a selected reproductive exposure window (ie, 3 months preconception for male sponsors and periconception through pregnancy for female sponsors), or if their sponsor was a non-responder. χ 2 tests and multivariable log-binomial regression were used to compare the demographic and health characteristics of infants born to spill responders and non-responders. Altogether, 1974 infants with a male sponsor (n=182 responder, n=1792 non-responder) and 628 infants with a female sponsor (n=35 responder, n=593 non-responder) in the DWH Oil Spill Coast Guard Cohort were identified. Health outcomes were similar among the offspring of male responders and non-responders. The frequency of any poor live birth outcome (ie, low birth weight, preterm birth or birth defect) was higher among infants born to female responders (17.1%, n=6) than non-responders (8.9%, n=53); the maternal age-adjusted association was suggestively elevated (risk ratio 1.93, 95% CI 0.89 to 4.16). Infant health outcomes were comparable between the offspring of male USCG oil spill responders and non-responders. Findings were limited by the small number of infants identified, particularly among female responders, and should be interpreted with caution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The 6-minute walk test predicts mortality in a pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria-predominant bronchiectasis cohort

Background: Bronchiectasis is a chronic lung condition frequently associated with nontuberculous mycobacteria pulmonary (NTM) disease. Persons with these conditions are at increased risk of mortality. Patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments and the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) have been shown to predict mortality for several lung conditions, but these measures have not been fully evaluated for bronchiectasis and NTM. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adult patients enrolled in a natural history study of bronchiectasis at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Electronic medical records were queried for demographic, clinical, microbiologic, radiographic, and PRO instrument data: St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale, and the Pulmonary Symptom Severity Score (PSSS). The study baseline date was defined as the patient’s first visit after January 1st, 2015 with a SGRQ or 6MWT completed. Follow-up was defined as the interval between the study baseline visit and date of death or December 31st, 2019. Sex-stratified Cox proportional-hazards regression was conducted to identify predictors of mortality. Separate models were run for each PRO and 6MWT measure, controlling for age, body mass index (BMI), fibrocavitary disease status, and M. abscessus infection. Results: In multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models, the PSSS-severity (aHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04–1.59), the 6MWT total distance walked (aHR 0.938, 95% CI 0.896–0.981) and distance saturation product (aHR 0.930, 95% CI 0.887–0.974) independently predicted mortality. In addition, BMI was significantly predictive of mortality in all models. Conclusions: The 6MWT and a PRO instrument capturing symptom severity are independently predictive of mortality in our cohort of bronchiectasis patients.

6-minute walk test↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving five-year survival prediction via multitask learning across HPV-related cancers

Oncology is a highly siloed field of research in which sub-disciplinary specialization has limited the amount of information shared between researchers of distinct cancer types. This can be attributed to legitimate differences in the physiology and carcinogenesis of cancers affecting distinct anatomical sites. However, underlying processes that are shared across seemingly disparate cancers probably affect prognosis. The objective of the current study is to investigate whether multitask learning improves 5-year survival cancer patient survival prediction by leveraging information across anatomically distinct HPV related cancers. Furthermore, data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database. The study cohort consisted of 29,768 primary cancer cases diagnosed in the United States between 2004 and 2015. Ten different cancer diagnoses were selected, all with a known association with HPV risk. In the analysis, the cancer diagnoses were categorized into three distinct topography groups of varying specificity. The most specific topography grouping consisted of 10 original cancer diagnoses differentiated by the first two digits of the ICD-O-3 topography code. The second topography grouping consisted of cancer diagnoses categorized into six distinct organ groups. Finally, the third topography grouping consisted of just two groups, head-neck cancers and ano-genital cancers. The tasks were to predict 5-year survival for patients within the different topography groups using 14 predictive features which were selected among descriptive variables available in the SEER database. The information from the predictive features was shared between tasks in three different ways, resulting in three distinct predictive models: 1) Information was not shared between patients assigned to different tasks (single task learning); 2) Information was shared between all patients, regardless of task (pooled model); 3) Only relevant information was shared between patients grouped to different tasks (multitask learning). Prediction performance was evaluated with Brier scores. All three models were evaluated against one another on each of the three distinct topography-defined tasks. The results showed that multitask classifiers achieved relative improvement for the majority of the scenarios studied compared to single task learning and pooled baseline methods. In this study, we have demonstrated that sharing information among anatomically distinct cancer types can lead to improved predictive survival models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of Stage N3 of the Eighth Edition AJCC Staging System for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Objectives To validate stage nodal (N)3 of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods This retrospective cohort study extracted NPC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2016. Pathologically confirmed patients with complete data of level IV, N3a, and N3b lymph node metastasis were investigated. The included patients were divided into level IV, N3a, and N3b groups. Five‐year overall survival (OS) and cancer‐specific survival (CSS) were compared among the three groups. Results A total of 693 patients were included: 285 (41.13%) patients in the level IV group, 124 (17.89%) patients in the N3a group, and 284 (40.98%) patients in the N3b group. The 5‐year OS (57.1%, 55.0%, and 55.2%) and CSS (64.4%, 63.5%, and 64.4%) were not different among the level IV, N3a, and N3b groups. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that N stage was not an independent prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91–1.17; P = .65) or CSS (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.89–1.19; P = .70). Conclusion Stage N3 of the 8th edition AJCC staging system for NPC is reasonable. Level of Evidence III Laryngoscope , 131:535–540, 2021

Pan, Xin‐Bin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Association of small vessel disease with tau pathology

Emerging evidence suggests that small vessel disease (SVD) is a risk factor for clinical dementia and may contribute to AD neuropathological changes. Watershed brain regions are located at the most distal areas between arterial territories, making them vulnerable to SVD-related changes. We examined the association of pathologic markers of SVD, specifically arteriolosclerosis in watershed brain regions, with AD pathologic changes. Participants (N= 982; mean age-at-death = 90; 69% women) were enrolled as part of one of two cohort studies of aging and dementia. At autopsy, neuropathological evaluation included semi-quantitative grading of arteriolosclerosis pathology from 2 cortical watershed regions: the anterior watershed (AWS) and posterior watershed (PWS), densities for cortical β-amyloid and tau-tangle pathology, and other common age-related pathologies. Linear regression models examined the association of watershed arteriolosclerosis pathology with β-amyloid and tau-tangle burden. In follow-up analyses, available ex-vivo MRI and proteomics data in a subset of decedents were leveraged to examine the association of whole brain measure of WMH, as a presumed MRI marker of SVD, with β-amyloid and tau-tangle burden, as well as to examine the association of watershed arteriolosclerosis with proteomic tau. Watershed arteriolosclerosis was common, with 45% of older persons having moderate-to-severe arteriolosclerosis pathology in the AWS region, and 35% in the PWS. In fully adjusted models that controlled for demographics and common age-related pathologies, an increase in severity of PWS arteriolosclerosis was associated with a higher burden of tau-tangle burden, specifically neocortical tau burden, but not with β-amyloid. AWS arteriolosclerosis was not associated with β-amyloid or tau pathology. Ex-vivo WMH was associated with greater tau-tangle pathology burden but not β-amyloid. Furthermore, PWS arteriolosclerosis was associated with higher abundance of tau phosphopeptides, that promote formation of tau aggregates. These data provide compelling evidence that SVD, specifically posterior watershed arteriolosclerosis pathology, is linked with tau pathological changes in the aging brain.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radiation effects on atherosclerosis in atomic bomb survivors: a cross-sectional study using structural equation modeling

Past reports indicated that total-body irradiation at low to moderate doses could be responsible for cardiovascular disease risks, but the mechanism remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between radiation exposure and atherosclerosis, an underlying pathology of cardiovascular diseases, in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. We performed a cross-sectional study measuring 14 clinical-physiological atherosclerosis indicators during clinical exams from 2010 to 2014 in 3274 participants of the Adult Health Study cohort. Multivariable analyses were performed by using a structural equation model with latent factors representing underlying atherosclerotic pathologies: (1) arterial stiffness, (2) calcification, and (3) plaque as measured with indicators chosen a priori on the basis of clinical-physiological knowledge. Radiation was linearly associated with calcification (standardized coefficient per Gy 0.15, 95 % confidence interval: CI [0.070, 0.23]) and plaque (0.11, 95 % CI [0.029, 0.20]), small associations that were comparable to about 2 years of aging per Gy of radiation exposure, but not with arterial stiffness (0.036, 95 % CI [-0.025, 0.095]). The model fitted better and had narrower confidence intervals than separate ordinary regression models explaining individual indicators independently. The associations were less evident when the dose range was restricted to a maximum of 2 or 1 Gy. By combining individual clinical-physiological indicators that are correlated because of common, underlying atherosclerotic pathologies, we found a small, but significant association of radiation with atherosclerosis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radiation Therapy–Induced Changes of the Nasopharyngeal Commensal Microbiome in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients

The human commensal microbiome has been suggested to be involved in the regulation of response to anticancer therapies. However, little is known regarding changes in commensal microbes in patients with cancer during radiation therapy. We conducted a prospective, longitudinal proof-of-concept cohort study with patients with newly diagnosed nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) who underwent radiation therapy-based treatment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

The temporal onset of associations of cortical proteins with cognitive resilience vary during late life

Background: Cortical proteins associated with cognitive resilience have been identified but their temporal onset in older adults is unknown. We present a multistage approach to first identify cortical proteins associated with cognitive resilience and then examine their associated temporal onset. Methods: We used data from a subset of 1088 decedents from two cohort-studies who had selected reaction monitoring proteomics from the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and at least 3 cognitive assessments. Cognition was assessed using a composite derived from 19 tests. We first used linear mixed-effects models to identify cortical proteins associated with cognitive resilience. We then used functional mixed-effects models to examine non-linear associations between proteins and cognitive resilience to identify their temporal onset. Results: Mean age at death was 90 years (SD = 6.4); 69 % were female. On average, cognition started to decline at around 15 years before death, with accelerated decline in the last 7 years. We identified 40 proteins associated with cognitive resilience, of which 17 proteins also showed non-linear associations. Non-linear associations indicated that higher levels of 10 proteins were associated with slower cognitive decline between 23 and 4 years before death. In contrast, higher levels of 7 proteins were associated with faster decline only within the last 7 years before death. Conclusions: Cognitive resilience proteins are differentially related to late-life cognitive aging; the onset of proteins that maintain cognition may begin many years before the onset of proteins that hasten cognitive decline. The temporal onset of cognitive resilience proteins may be crucial for timing efficacious interventions.

Zammit, Andrea↗
DOE OSTI2020

Block Design with Common Reference Samples Enables Robust Large-Scale Label-Free Quantitative Proteome Profiling

Label-free quantitative proteomics has become an increasingly popular tool for profiling global protein abundances. However, one major weakness is the potential performance drift of the LC-MS platform over time, which in turn limits its utility for analyzing large-scale sample sets. To address this, in this work we introduce an experimental and data analysis scheme based on a block-design with common controls within each block for enabling LC-MS-based large-scale label-free quantification. In this scheme, a large number of samples (e.g., >100 samples) are analyzed in smaller, and more manageable blocks, minimizing instrument drift and variability within a block. Furthermore, each designated block also contains common controls (or reference) samples for normalization within and across blocks. We demonstrated the effectiveness of this method by profiling the proteome response of human macrophage THP-1 cells to 11 engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) at two different doses. A total of 116 samples were analyzed in six blocks, yielding an average coverage of 4500 proteins per sample. The data revealed consistent quantification of proteins across all six blocks, as shown by highly stable quantification of house-keeping proteins in all samples and high levels of quantification correlation among samples from different blocks. The data also demonstrated that label-free quantification is robust and accurate enough to quantify even very subtle abundance changes as well as large fold-changes without potential ratio compression as often encountered with isobaric labeling. Our streamlined workflow is easy to implement and can be readily adapted to other large cohort studies for reproducible label-free proteome quantification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

PeakQC: A Software Tool for Omics-Agnostic Automated Quality Control of Mass Spectrometry Data

Mass spectrometry is broadly employed to study complex molecular mechanisms in various biological and environmental fields, enabling 'omics' research such as proteomics, metabolomics, and lipidomics. As study cohorts grow larger and more complex with dozens to hundreds of samples, the need for robust quality control (QC) measures through automated software tools becomes paramount to ensure the integrity, high quality, and validity of scientific conclusions from downstream analyses and minimize the waste of resources. Since existing QC tools are mostly dedicated to proteomics, automated solutions supporting metabolomics are needed. To address this need, we developed the software PeakQC, a tool for automated QC of MS data that is independent of omics molecular types (i.e., omics-agnostic). It allows automated extraction and inspection of peak metrics of precursor ions (e.g., errors in mass, retention time, arrival time) and supports various instrumentations and acquisition types, from infusion experiments or using liquid chromatography and/or ion mobility spectrometry front-end separations and with/without fragmentation spectra from data-dependent or independent acquisition analyses. Diagnostic plots for fragmentation spectra are also generated. Here, in this paper, we describe and illustrate PeakQC’s functionalities using different representative data sets, demonstrating its utility as a valuable tool for enhancing the quality and reliability of omics mass spectrometry analyses.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients

Abstract The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Eight decades of research on the long-term health effects of radiation in atomic bomb survivors and their offspring

Abstract This year marks the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Over the past eight decades, large-scale cohort studies of atomic bomb survivors and their offspring conducted by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation and its predecessor, the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission, have provided critical insights into the long-term health effects of radiation exposure. Key findings include early identification of radiation-associated leukemia, as well as excess risks of all solid cancers combined, and most individual cancer sites. Observed radiation dose–response relationships have generally followed a linear-quadratic model for leukemia and a linear model for all solid cancers. Recent findings indicating possible upward curvature in the dose–response for all solid cancers may reflect underlying heterogeneity in factors related to individual cancer sites and should be explored further. Generally, younger age at exposure, lower attained age, and female sex appear to show greater radiation sensitivity for all solid cancers combined but results differ by individual cancer site. Recent studies have also identified potential radiation-related excesses for non-cancer diseases such as cataracts, various circulatory diseases, and others. Studies of heritable effects on the offspring of exposed atomic bomb survivors, in contrast, have shown no elevated risk to date in offspring from parental radiation exposure, either at the molecular or disease level. With the cooperation of the atomic bomb survivors and their families, Radiation Effects Research Foundation’s research will continue to play a crucial role in informing the health of survivors, their families, and global radiation protection in the decades to come.

Oncology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Drug-induced kidney injury: challenges and opportunities

Abstract Drug-induced kidney injury (DIKI) is a frequently reported adverse event, associated with acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease, and end-stage renal failure. Prospective cohort studies on acute injuries suggest a frequency of around 14%–26% in adult populations and a significant concern in pediatrics with a frequency of 16% being attributed to a drug. In drug discovery and development, renal injury accounts for 8 and 9% of preclinical and clinical failures, respectively, impacting multiple therapeutic areas. Currently, the standard biomarkers for identifying DIKI are serum creatinine and blood urea nitrogen. However, both markers lack the sensitivity and specificity to detect nephrotoxicity prior to a significant loss of renal function. Consequently, there is a pressing need for the development of alternative methods to reliably predict drug-induced kidney injury (DIKI) in early drug discovery. In this article, we discuss various aspects of DIKI and how it is assessed in preclinical models and in the clinical setting, including the challenges posed by translating animal data to humans. We then examine the urinary biomarkers accepted by both the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency for monitoring DIKI in preclinical studies and on a case-by-case basis in clinical trials. We also review new approach methodologies (NAMs) and how they may assist in developing novel biomarkers for DIKI that can be used earlier in drug discovery and development.

Connor, Skylar (ORCID:0000000233479180)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Congenital malformation and hemoglobin A1c in the first trimester among Japanese women with pregestational diabetes

Abstract Aim To investigate the incidence of major congenital malformations in Japanese women with pregestational diabetes, and to determine the cutoff value of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) in the first trimester associated with congenital malformations. Methods This retrospective cohort study included singleton pregnancies in Japanese women with pregestational diabetes, including type 1 and type 2 diabetes, and specific types of diabetes due to other causes. The primary outcome was the incidence of major congenital malformations. The secondary outcome was the incidence of all congenital malformations. The cutoff value of HbA1c for congenital malformations was calculated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The adjusted odds ratios (aOR) of major congenital malformations were calculated using multiple logistic regression analyses. Results This study enrolled 292 patients, including 132 (45.2%) with type 1 diabetes, 156 (53.4%) with type 2 diabetes, and 4 (1.4%) with other specific types. The incidence rates of major congenital malformations and all congenital malformations were 7.2% (21/292) and 12.7% (37/292), respectively. The cutoff value of HbA1c in the first trimester for major malformations and for all congenital malformations was 6.5%. HbA1c ≥ 6.5% was significantly associated with major malformations (aOR 3.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.2–12.6; p = 0.018). Conclusion The incidence of major congenital malformations significantly increased in pregnant Japanese women with HbA1c values of 6.5% or higher. The recommended HbA1c value during the first trimester used in other countries can be applied to pregnant Japanese women.

Nakanishi, Kentaro↗
DOE OSTI2021

Budget Constrained Machine Learning for Early Prediction of Adverse Outcomes for COVID-19 Patients

Background: Machine learning (ML) based risk stratification models of Electronic Health records (EHR) data may help to optimize treatment of COVID-19 patients, but are often limited by their lack of clinical interpretability and cost of laboratory tests. We develop a ML based tool for predicting adverse outcomes based on EHR data to optimize clinical utility under a given cost structure. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Healthcare in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. Methods: We tested performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality and the set of model features under a budget constraint was optimized via exhaustive search across all combinations of features. Results: The optimal sets of features for predicting ventilation under any budget constraint included demographics and comorbidities (DCM), basic metabolic panel (BMP), D-dimer, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), CRP, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), and procalcitonin and for mortality included DCM, BMP, complete blood count, D-dimer, LDH, CRP, BNP, procalcitonin and ferritin. Conclusions: This study presents a quick, accurate and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

Cadena Pico, JoseE.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gut microbiome dynamics and associations with mortality in critically ill patients

Abstract Background Critical illness and care within the intensive care unit (ICU) leads to profound changes in the composition of the gut microbiome. The impact of such changes on the patients and their subsequent disease course remains uncertain. We hypothesized that specific changes in the gut microbiome would be more harmful than others, leading to increased mortality in critically ill patients. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of critically ill adults in the ICU. We obtained rectal swabs from 52 patients and assessed the composition the gut microbiome using 16 S rRNA gene sequencing. We followed patients throughout their ICU course and evaluated their mortality rate at 28 days following admission to the ICU. We used selbal, a machine learning method, to identify the balance of microbial taxa most closely associated with 28-day mortality. Results We found that a proportional ratio of four taxa could be used to distinguish patients with a higher risk of mortality from patients with a lower risk of mortality (p = .02). We named this binarized ratio our microbiome mortality index (MMI). Patients with a high MMI had a higher 28-day mortality compared to those with a low MMI (hazard ratio, 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–4.3), and remained significant after adjustment for other ICU mortality predictors, including the presence of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score (hazard ratio, 2.5, 95% confidence interval 1.4–4.7). High mortality was driven by taxa from theAnaerococcus(genus) andEnterobacteriaceae(family), while lower mortality was driven byParasutterellaandCampylobacter(genera). Conclusions Dysbiosis in the gut of critically ill patients is an independent risk factor for increased mortality at 28 days after adjustment for clinically significant confounders. Gut dysbiosis may represent a potential therapeutic target for future ICU interventions.

Gastroenterology & Hepatology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lung Cancer in the Mayak Workers Cohort: Risk Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis

The workers at the Mayak nuclear facility near Ozyorsk, Russia are a primary source of information about exposure to radiation at low-dose rates, since they were subject to protracted exposures to external gamma rays and to internal exposures from plutonium inhalation. Here we re-examine lung cancer mortality rates and assess the effects of external gamma and internal plutonium exposures using recently developed Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Using individual lagged mean annual lung doses computed from the dose realizations, we fit excess relative risk (ERR) models to the lung cancer mortality data for the Mayak Workers Cohort using risk-modeling software. We then used the corrected information matrix (CIM) approach to widen the confidence intervals of ERR by taking into account the uncertainty in doses represented by multiple realizations from the Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Findings of this work revealed that there were 930 lung cancer deaths during follow-up. Plutonium lung doses (but not gamma doses) were generally higher in the new dosimetry systems than those used in the previous analysis. This led to a reduction in the risk per unit dose compared to prior estimates. The estimated ERR/Gy for external gamma-ray exposure was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.31) for both sexes combined, while the ERR/Gy for internal exposures based on mean plutonium doses were 3.5 (95% CI: 2.3 to 4.6) and 8.9 (95% CI: 3.4 to 14) for males and females at attained age 60. Accounting for uncertainty in dose had little effect on the confidence intervals for the ERR associated with gamma-ray exposure, but had a marked impact on confidence intervals, particularly the upper bounds, for the effect of plutonium exposure [adjusted 95% CIs: 1.5 to 8.9 for males and 2.7 to 28 for females]. In conclusion, lung cancer rates increased significantly with both external gamma-ray and internal plutonium exposures. Accounting for the effects of dose uncertainty markedly increased the width of the confidence intervals for the plutonium dose response but had little impact on the external gamma dose effect estimate. Adjusting risk estimate confidence intervals using CIM provides a solution to the important problem of dose uncertainty. This work demonstrates, for the first time, that it is possible and practical to use our recently developed CIM method to make such adjustments in a large cohort study.

uncertainty, radiation risk estimation, Mayak Prod↗