Results for “Combined Uncertainty” — Page 5

NASA NTRS2021

Measurements of Rainfall Rate, Drop Size Distribution, and Variability at Middle and Higher Latitudes: Application to the Combined DPR-GMI Algorithm

The Global Precipitation Measurement mission is a major U.S.–Japan joint mission to understand the physics of the Earth’s global precipitation as a key component of its weather, climate, and hydrological systems. The core satellite carries a dual-precipitation radar and an advanced microwave imager which provide measurements to retrieve the drop size distribution (DSD) and rain rates using a Combined Radar-Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA). Our objective is to validate key assumptions and parameterizations in CORRA and enable improved estimation of precipitation products, especially in the middle-to-higher latitudes in both hemispheres. The DSD parameters and statistical relationships between DSD parameters and radar measurements are a central part of the rainfall retrieval algorithm, which is complicated by regimes where DSD measurements are abysmally sparse (over the open ocean). In view of this, we have assembled optical disdrometer datasets gathered by research vessels, ground stations, and aircrafts to simulate radar observables and validate the scattering lookup tables used in CORRA. The joint use of all DSD datasets spans a large range of drop concentrations and characteristic drop diameters. The scaling normalization of DSDs defines an intercept parameter N(W), which normalizes the concentrations, and a scaling diameter D(m), which compresses or stretches the diameter coordinate axis. A major finding of this study is that a single relationship between N(W) and D(m), on average, unifies all datasets included, from stratocumulus to heavier rainfall regimes. A comparison with the N(W)–D(m) relation used as a constraint in versions 6 and 7 of CORRA highlights the scope for improvement of rainfall retrievals for small drops (D(m) < 1 mm) and large drops (D(m) > 2 mm). The normalized specific attenuation–reflectivity relationships used in the combined algorithm are also found to match well the equivalent relationships derived using DSDs from the three datasets, suggesting that the currently assumed lookup tables are not a major source of uncertainty in the combined algorithm rainfall estimates.

Viswanathan Bringi↗

NASA NTRS2000

How Well Will MODIS Measure Top of Atmosphere Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing?

The new generation of satellite sensors such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) will be able to detect and characterize global aerosols with an unprecedented accuracy. The question remains whether this accuracy will be sufficient to narrow the uncertainties in our estimates of aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Satellite remote sensing detects aerosol optical thickness with the least amount of relative error when aerosol loading is high. Satellites are less effective when aerosol loading is low. We use the monthly mean results of two global aerosol transport models to simulate the spatial distribution of smoke aerosol in the Southern Hemisphere during the tropical biomass burning season. This spatial distribution allows us to determine that 87-94% of the smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere occurs in grid squares with sufficient signal to noise ratio to be detectable from space. The uncertainty of quantifying the smoke aerosol forcing in the Southern Hemisphere depends on the uncertainty introduced by errors in estimating the background aerosol, errors resulting from uncertainties in surface properties and errors resulting from uncertainties in assumptions of aerosol properties. These three errors combine to give overall uncertainties of 1.5 to 2.2 Wm-2 (21-56%) in determining the Southern Hemisphere smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere. The range of values depend on which estimate of MODIS retrieval uncertainty is used, either the theoretical calculation (upper bound) or the empirical estimate (lower bound). Strategies that use the satellite data to derive flux directly or use the data in conjunction with ground-based remote sensing and aerosol transport models can reduce these uncertainties.

Remer, Lorraine A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Reduction With Multi-Model Monte Carlo for Crystal Plasticity Simulations of Additively Manufactured Metals

In this work, multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed to reduce uncertainty in quantities of interest (QoIs) extracted from crystal plasticity simulations of additively manufactured (AM) metals. A significant concern in AM parts is uncertainty in mechanical properties caused in part by complex microstructures that arise from the AM process. Quantifying uncertainty in microstructure-sensitive behavior using experiments alone is costly, especially when mechanical allowables must be established. Quantitative relationships among microstructure, micromechanical metrics like slip accumulation, crack initiation, and failure are also difficult to capture with limited experiments. Crystal plasticity material models instead enable computational prediction of micromechanical stress and strain fields given a discretized microstructure. However, high-fidelity finely discretized crystal plasticity simulations are computationally expensive, while lower-fidelity models are less accurate and generally biased, making uncertainty quantification and reduction computationally difficult as well. Multi-model Monte Carlo methods leverage correlations between high- and low-fidelity models to produce unbiased estimators for QoIs with reduced uncertainty relative to standard Monte Carlo. Crystal plasticity QoIs considered in this work include yield strength and the mean and extreme values of micromechanical fields that are relevant to crack initiation. Multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed for each individual QoI and several groups of QoIs. The results of this work establish relationships among model correlations, sample allocation, and uncertainty reduction for different combinations of QoIs and demonstrate a trend of less uncertainty reduction as QoIs become more sensitive to local microstructure. Limitations from using pilot samples to estimate model covariances and train low-fidelity models are also addressed. The uncertainty reduction achieved by multi-model Monte Carlo is an important step toward using computational mechanics models to predict microstructure-sensitive crack initiation and failure in AM parts.

uncertainty quantification↗

NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty Analysis of Slug Calorimeters in the HyMETS Arc-Jet Facility

The objective of this work is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the deduced stagnation heat flux environment on a slug calorimeter for conditions that span the performance envelope of the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System arc-jet facility located at NASA Langley Research Center. Analytical solutions are developed for boundary-value problems on the slug element accounting for non-ideal effects, including spatial variation in the slug heat flux, multi-dimensional thermal conduction, and back-face losses, which departs from the state-of-the-art method derived from the American Society of Testing and Materials. Boundary-value problem definitions are informed by preliminary finite element thermal analysis of the slug calorimeter assembly (including both slug and housing) and just the slug element. The analytical solutions are presented in a general sense and in a truncated form from error analysis. Results are shown in optimizing and validating the analytical models against available slug back-face thermal data. The optimization results indicate that the appropriate epistemic uncertainty of the deduced stagnation heat flux on the slug calorimeter is at most±2.5% for both a high-and low-enthalpy test condition. In addition, a numerical approach is used to determine the aleatory (probabilistic) uncertainty component in the slug stagnation heat flux by applying a marching least-squares slope routine through the steady-state portion of the slug back-face thermal response. Results indicate a compromise between the number of samples and the filter frequency of slug back-face thermal data points when evaluating the standard deviation of the deduced stagnation heat flux statistics. When combining the mixed uncertainty, both aleatory and epistemic, the interval of uncertainty in the deduced stagnation heat flux is determined to be up to ±4%, which is at least a 60% reduction from the standard uncertainty used in the state-of-the-art method.

uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS2016

Model Sensitivity Studies of the Decrease in Atmospheric Carbon Tetrachloride

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is an ozone-depleting substance, which is controlled by the Montreal Protocol and for which the atmospheric abundance is decreasing. However, the current observed rate of this decrease is known to be slower than expected based on reported CCl4 emissions and its estimated overall atmospheric lifetime. Here we use a three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model to investigate the impact on its predicted decay of uncertainties in the rates at which CCl4 is removed from the atmosphere by photolysis, by ocean uptake and by degradation in soils. The largest sink is atmospheric photolysis (74% of total), but a reported 10% uncertainty in its combined photolysis cross section and quantum yield has only a modest impact on the modelled rate of CCl4 decay. This is partly due to the limiting effect of the rate of transport of CCl4 from the main tropospheric reservoir to the stratosphere, where photolytic loss occurs. The model suggests large interannual variability in the magnitude of this stratospheric photolysis sink caused by variations in transport. The impact of uncertainty in the minor soil sink (9%of total) is also relatively small. In contrast, the model shows that uncertainty in ocean loss (17%of total) has the largest impact on modelled CCl4 decay due to its sizeable contribution to CCl4 loss and large lifetime uncertainty range (147 to 241 years). With an assumed CCl4 emission rate of 39 Gg year(exp -1), the reference simulation with the best estimate of loss processes still underestimates the observed CCl4 (overestimates the decay) over the past 2 decades but to a smaller extent than previous studies. Changes to the rate of CCl4 loss processes, in line with known uncertainties, could bring the model into agreement with in situ surface and remote-sensing measurements, as could an increase in emissions to around 47 Gg year(exp -1). Further progress in constraining the CCl4 budget is partly limited by systematic biases between observational datasets. For example, surface observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) network are larger than from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network but have shown a steeper decreasing trend over the past 2 decades. These differences imply a difference in emissions which is significant relative to uncertainties in the magnitudes of the CCl4 sinks.

Carbon Trechloride↗

NASA NTRS2020

Uncertainty Quantification of Global Net Methane Emissions From Terrestrial Ecosystems Using a Mechanistically Based Biogeochemistry Model

Quantification of methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands and its sinks from uplands is still fraught with large uncertainties. Here, a methane biogeochemistry model was revised, parameterized, and verified for various wetland ecosystems across the globe. The model was then extrapolated to the global scale to quantify the uncertainty induced from four different types of uncertainty sources including parameterization, wetland type distribution, wetland area distribution, and meteorological input. We found that global wetland emissions are 212 ± 62 and 212 ± 32 Tg CH4 year−1 (1Tg = 1012 g) due to uncertain parameters and wetland type distribution, respectively, during 2000–2012. Using two wetland distribution data sets and three sets of climate data, the model simulations indicated that the global wetland emissions range from 186 to 212 CH4 year−1 for the same period. The parameters were the most significant uncertainty source. After combining the global methane consumption in the range of −34 to −46 Tg CH4 year−1, we estimated that the global net land methane emissions are 149–176 Tg CH4 year−1 due to uncertain wetland distribution and meteorological input. Spatially, the northeast United States and Amazon were two hotspots of methane emission, while consumption hotspots were in the Eastern United States and eastern China. During 1950–2016, both wetland emissions and upland consumption increased during El Niño events and decreased during La Niña events. This study highlights the need for more in situ methane flux data, more accurate wetland type, and area distribution information to better constrain the model uncertainty.

wetland methane emission↗

NASA NTRS1992

A statistical model for evaluating GOPEX uplink performance

This article describes a statistical model to analyze the signal intensity received at the solid-state imaging (SSI) camera of the Galileo optical communications system from an Earth-based transmitter (GOPEX) demonstration. The analytical model assumes that the optical beam possesses a Gaussian profile and the communication channel has a log-normal scattering characteristic. The atmospheric-induced jitter is modelled as two independent zero mean Gaussian random variables. By modelling the system parameters as a set of independent and identically distributed (iid) random variables, the combined impact of uncertainties due to system parameters and the turbulent atmosphere can be approximated by a log-normal distributed signal intensity at the spacecraft. A Monte-Carlo software simulation package was also developed to compute the confidence interval probabilities for general optical beam profiles. Numerical results show that the approximation is valid for a wide range of operation scenarios.

Kiesaleh, K.↗

NASA NTRS1998

SeaWiFS Postlaunch Technical Report Series: The SeaWiFS Transfer Radiometer (SXR) - Volume 1

The SeaWiFS Transfer Radiometer (SXR) was built for the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project as part of an Interagency Agreement with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The SXR is a multichannel radiometer designed to verify and compare measurements of spectral radiance at six discrete wavelengths in the visible and near infrared for various calibration sources in the SeaWiFS Project. In addition, the SXR is used to compare these sources to standards of spectral radiance maintained at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The SXR was designed, built, and thoroughly characterized in the Optical Technology Division at NIST. A unique optical design provides six independent optical paths, each equipped with a temperature stabilized interference filter and silicon photodiode. A separate beam path through the input lens is used to visually align the SXR. The entrance windows for each channel overlap at the source, with each channel sampling a unique solid angle within the field of view of the SXR; this allows for simultaneous sampling of all channels. The combined standard relative uncertainty of spectral radiance measurements with the SXR is estimated to be between 0.6% and 1.3%. This report describes the design and construction of the SXR in detail, and gives the results of the optical characterization and calibrations done at NIST. The SXR has been used for several intercomparisons which include several SeaWiFS Intercalibration Round-Robin Experiments (SIRREXs); those done at the Marine Optical Buoy (MOBY) laboratories in Honolulu, Hawaii; at the NEC Corporation in Yokohama, Japan; and Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC) in Germantown, Maryland. Thorough optical characterization and calibration of the SXR was essential to the successful application of the radiometer for these measurements.

Johnson, B. Carol↗

NASA NTRS1998

SeaWiFS Postlaunch Technical Report Series: The SeaWiFS Transfer Radiometer (SXR) - Volume 1

The SeaWiFS Transfer Radiometer (SXR) was built for the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project as part of an Interagency Agreement with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The SXR is a multichannel radiometer designed to verify and compare measurements of spectral radiance at six discrete wavelengths in the visible and near infrared for various calibration sources in the SeaWiFS Project. In addition, the SXR is used to compare these sources to standards of spectral radiance maintained at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The SXR was designed, built, and thoroughly characterized in the Optical Technology Division at NIST. A unique optical design provides six independent optical paths, each equipped with a temperature stabilized interference filter and silicon photodiode. A separate beam path through the input lens is used to visually align the SXR. The entrance windows for each channel overlap at the source, with each channel sampling a unique solid angle within the field of view of the SXR; this allows for simultaneous sampling of all channels. The combined standard relative uncertainty of spectral radiance measurements with the SXR is estimated to be between 0.6% and 1.3%. This report describes the design and construction of the SXR in detail, and gives the results of the optical characterization and calibrations done at NIST. The SXR has been used for several intercomparisons which include several SeaWiFS Intercalibration Round-Robin Experiments (SIRREXs); those done at the Marine Optical Buoy (MOBY) laboratories in Honolulu, Hawaii; at the NEC Corporation in Yokohama, Japan; and Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC) in Germantown, Maryland. Thorough optical characterization and calibration of the SXR was essential to the successful application of the radiometer for these measurements.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Temperature Scale of Central Stars Planetary Nebulae

The goal of this project was to gain new insight into both the true temperatures of the central stars of planetary nebulae and their evolutionary histories. The temperature scale of the hottest central stars of planetary nebulae is poorly known. The temperature diagnostics available at visible wavelengths are not useful for these very hot stars, or suffer from as-yet unresolved systematic uncertainties. However, the combination of FUSE FUV spectra and HST NUV spectra allows precise temperature determinations by utilizing ionization balances of C III, C IV and O V, O VI lines. The sample comprises hot hydrogen-rich central stars covering the hottest phase of post-AGB evolution (T_eff greater than 70,000K). The spectra were analyzed with fully metal line blanketed NLTE model atmospheres in order to determine T_eff, surface gravity, and chemical composition. In addition to the temperature scale, the spectra help address the question of metal abundances at the surface of these stars. Depending on the particular star, the metal abundances are either dominated by ongoing diffusion processes or they originate from dredge-up phases during previous AGB evolution. The sample was selected so as to include objects that were expected to exhibit both processes, in order to assess their relative importance and to gain insight into the evolutionary history of the stars. The objects that show qualitatively a metal abundance pattern which points at dredge-up phases, can be used to quantitatively check against abundance predictions of stellar evolution theory. The other objects, where gravitational diffusion and radiative acceleration determine the photospheric metal abundances, will be used to check our NLTE models which for the first time include diffusion processes self-consistently.

Kruk, Jeffry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Operational Modal Analysis of the Space Launch System Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter ISVV-010 Rollout

NASA is developing an expendable heavy lift launch vehicle capability, the Space Launch System, to support lunar and deep space exploration. To support this capability, an updated ground infrastructure is required including modifying an existing Mobile Launcher system. The Mobile Launcher is a very large heavy beam/truss steel structure designed to support the Space Launch System during its buildup and integration in the Vehicle Assembly Building, transportation between the Vehicle Assembly Building and launch pad 39B by the Crawler Transporter, and provides the launch platform at the launch pad. As part of the Verification and Validation of the Mobile Launcher and Crawler Transporter, two rollouts of the Mobile Launcher transported by the Crawler Transporter, Integrated System Verification and Validation (ISVV) 005 and 010, have been performed to demonstrate the Crawler Transporter’s ability to transport the Mobile Launcher. ISVV-005 occurred in September 2018 and ISVV-010 occurred in late June 2019. ISVV-005 and ISVV-010 also provided the opportunity to gather data that can be used identify the Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics and refine the estimates of the Artemis I integrated launch vehicle rollout forcing functions. While the rollout environment has historically produced relatively small launch vehicle structural loads for the Saturn/Apollo and Space Shuttle programs in comparison to launch and ascent loads, these relatively small structural loads are inputs to structural fatigue analyses. The same holds true for the Space Launch System. Because the rollout forces acting on the Mobile Launcher and the Crawler Transporter are not directly measurable, Operational Modal Analysis techniques, instead of traditional Experimental Modal Analysis techniques, provide an empirical means to identify the Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics. The ISVV-010 rollout modal characteristics provide important supplemental modal information, which along with the Mobile Launcher modal test that was performed in June 2019 immediately prior to ISVV-010 rollout, combine to reduce uncertainty in the test correlated Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter finite element model. A well test correlated finite element model will play a key role in the Building Block approach the Space Launch System program has implemented as part of its certification process for the Artemis I flight and in refining the Artemis I rollout forcing functions. At the time of the ISVV-005 rollout in September 2018, the Mobile Launcher was still undergoing construction, and therefore its modal characteristics are not directly comparable to those of the Mobile Launcher during the June 2019 Mobile Launcher modal test and subsequent ISVV-010 rollout. Hence the ISVV-005 rollout modal characteristics will not be looked at in this paper. This paper will briefly describe the Mobile Launcher and Crawler Transporter physical characteristics, ISVV-010 rollout data collection, the challenges in implementing Operational Modal Analysis techniques due in part to the Crawler Transporter harmonics, and how these challenges were overcome to obtain the ISVV-010 Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics.

Apollo↗

NASA NTRS2021

Operational Modal Analysis of the Space Launch System Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter ISVV-010 Rollout

NASA is developing an expendable heavy lift launch vehicle capability, the Space Launch System, to support lunar and deep space exploration. To support this capability, an updated ground infrastructure is required including modifying an existing Mobile Launcher system. The Mobile Launcher is a very large heavy beam/truss steel structure designed to support the Space Launch System during its buildup and integration in the Vehicle Assembly Building, transportation between the Vehicle Assembly Building and launch pad 39B by the Crawler Transporter, and provides the launch platform at the launch pad. As part of the Verification and Validation of the Mobile Launcher and Crawler Transporter, two rollouts of the Mobile Launcher transported by the Crawler Transporter, Integrated System Verification and Validation (ISVV) 005 and 010, have been performed to demonstrate the Crawler Transporter’s ability to transport the Mobile Launcher. ISVV-005 occurred in September 2018 and ISVV-010 occurred in late June 2019. ISVV-005 and ISVV-010 also provided the opportunity to gather data that can be used identify the Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics and refine the estimates of the Artemis I integrated launch vehicle rollout forcing functions. While the rollout environment has historically produced relatively small launch vehicle structural loads for the Saturn/Apollo and Space Shuttle programs in comparison to launch and ascent loads, these relatively small structural loads are inputs to structural fatigue analyses. The same holds true for the Space Launch System. Because the rollout forces acting on the Mobile Launcher and the Crawler Transporter are not directly measurable, Operational Modal Analysis techniques, instead of traditional Experimental Modal Analysis techniques, provide an empirical means to identify the Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics. The ISVV-010 rollout modal characteristics provide important supplemental modal information, which along with the Mobile Launcher modal test that was performed in June 2019 immediately prior to ISVV-010 rollout, combine to reduce uncertainty in the test correlated Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter finite element model. A well test correlated finite element model will play a key role in the Building Block approach the Space Launch System program has implemented as part of its certification process for the Artemis I flight and in refining the Artemis I rollout forcing functions. At the time of the ISVV-005 rollout in September 2018, the Mobile Launcher was still undergoing construction, and therefore its modal characteristics are not directly comparable to those of the Mobile Launcher during the June 2019 Mobile Launcher modal test and subsequent ISVV-010 rollout. Hence the ISVV-005 rollout modal characteristics will not be looked at in this paper. This paper will briefly describe the Mobile Launcher and Crawler Transporter physical characteristics, ISVV-010 rollout data collection, the challenges in implementing Operational Modal Analysis techniques due in part to the Crawler Transporter harmonics, and how these challenges were overcome to obtain the ISVV-010 Mobile Launcher on the Crawler Transporter rollout modal characteristics.

Apollo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AeroFusion: Data Fusion and Uncertainty Quantification for Entry Vehicles

AeroFusion is a NASA Langley initiative to incorporate advances in data science into the aerodynamic modeling process to improve efficiency. The effort can largely be categorized in three components: reduced-order modeling techniques, surrogate modeling techniques, and uncertainty quantification. By combining various methods from these categories, AeroFusion aims to reduce the development cost of aerodynamic models, both in terms of time and money.

Steven Snyder↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AeroFusion: Data Fusion and Uncertainty Quantification for Entry Vehicles

AeroFusion is a NASA Langley initiative to incorporate advances in data science into the aerodynamic modeling process to improve efficiency. The effort can largely be categorized in three components: reduced-order modeling techniques, surrogate modeling techniques, and uncertainty quantification. By combining various methods from these categories, AeroFusion aims to reduce the development cost of aerodynamic models, both in terms of time and money.

Steven Snyder↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)

Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m−2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealised aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (Africa and the Middle East, East Asia, North America and Europe, and South Asia) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission locations and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the shared socioeconomic pathways and are intended to be performed with 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable the analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.

anthropogenic aerosol emissions↗

NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of Two Methods for Estimating the Sampling-Related Uncertainty of Satellite Rainfall Averages Based on a Large Radar Data Set

The uncertainty of rainfall estimated from averages of discrete samples collected by a satellite is assessed using a multi-year radar data set covering a large portion of the United States. The sampling-related uncertainty of rainfall estimates is evaluated for all combinations of 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km space domains, 1 day, 5 day, and 30 day rainfall accumulations, and regular sampling time intervals of 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 8 h, and 12 h. These extensive analyses are combined to characterize the sampling uncertainty as a function of space and time domain, sampling frequency, and rainfall characteristics by means of a simple scaling law. Moreover, it is shown that both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques of estimating the sampling uncertainty produce comparable results. Sampling uncertainty estimates, however, do depend on the choice of technique for obtaining them. They can also vary considerably from case to case, reflecting the great variability of natural rainfall, and should therefore be expressed in probabilistic terms. Rainfall calibration errors are shown to affect comparison of results obtained by studies based on data from different climate regions and/or observation platforms.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Assessment of the Contribution of the Atmosphere to Uncertainties in Normalized Water-Leaving Radiance: A Combined Modeling and Data Analysis Approach

Our research for the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) program has been focused on modeling and simulation studies as well as the development of atmospheric correction algorithms. Based on our original proposal and discussions at the SIMBIOS team meetings and workshops, the objectives of our research can be summarized as follows: (1) Use our radiative transfer model for the coupled atmosphere-ocean system to simulate the radiation field at arbitrary levels and in any desired direction in the atmosphere and ocean so as to provide a firm connection between the signal received by the satellite sensor and by a sensor looking down into the water column just above the surface and just below it; (2) Use the simulations to quantify the influence of atmospheric aerosols on the water-leaving radiance, and to quantify the error in the water-leaving radiance as a function of uncertainties in the aerosol optical properties, mass loading and vertical extent; (3) Use the model simulations in conjunction with validation measurements taken by other SIMBIOS investigators (for satellite overpasses) to assess our understanding of the radiative transfer process in the coupled atmosphere-ocean column, and to examine the extent to which the model provides a realistic prediction of simultaneously measured in situ water-leaving radiance and the radiance received by the satellite sensor; (4) Modify and improve an existing atmospheric correction algorithm, based on the work above, as needed by constructing new look-up tables that include scattering by ocean particles; and (5) Carry out approaches to developing an atmospheric correction algorithm for ocean color imagery with strongly absorbing aerosols.

Stamnes, Knut↗

NASA NTRS1982

The development and application of aerodynamic uncertainties in the design of the entry trajectory and flight control system of the Space Shuttle Orbiter

In connection with the decision to conduct with the Shuttle an orbital, manned mission on its first launch, certain problems arose related to mission safety, which had to be provided without the benefit of either a graduated flight test program or an initial unmanned flight concept. In an attempt to overcome these problems, the philosophy was adopted to provide a reasonable estimate of maximum possible errors in the preflight predicted aerodynamics. The flight control system (FCS) was to be certified on the basis of the estimated errors prior to STS-1. A set of 'worst case' aerodynamic uncertainties, defined as variations, was developed. As part of the first flight certification, variations, combined with other system uncertainties, were used to 'stress' the FCS through a multitude of simulations. Attention is given to an Orbiter description, the entry mission, the correlation of aerodynamic uncertainties, the application of aerodynamic variation in FCS and trajectory design, and the flight test results.

Gamble, J. D.↗