Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Confidence region”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Stratospheric circulation in the southern summer/northern winter 1980-81 - Behavior of zonal waves 1-10

Daily global grids of high quality, satellite-borne microwave measurements have been used to study the behavior of stratospheric waves during November 1980-March 1981. The primary motivation was to investigate, by comparing with earlier analyses, the interannual variation of recently reported medium-scale wave domination of Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer circulation. Zonal means, as well as time-mean and transient zonal waves 1-10, are studied. In addition, space-time spectra are determined from the 138-day record. Prominent medium-scale features are found to occur in 1980-81, although wave 4 is strongest, in contrast to the Global Weather Experiment period (1978-79), when wave 5 dominated the SH summer circulation. The same highly continuous, regular eastward phase movement of SH medium-scale waves is found in 1980-81 as in 1978-79. A second noteworthy observation is that of strong, time-mean waves 3-4 with symmetry about the equator, with positive temperature perturbations over the western Pacific and Atlantic equatorial regions, and negative anomalies over South America, Africa, and Indonesia. Confidence in the SH spectral results is enhanced by good agreement between our Northern Hemisphere (NH) medium-scale analyses and recent geopotential height studies by other investigators. These results serve to bring into sharper focus the question of why, in contrast with the more wellknown NH, the SH circulation evidences such robust and highly continuous medium-scale eddies in summer.

Yu, W.-B.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Flow-Tagging Velocimetry for Hypersonic Flows Using Fluorescence of Nitric Oxide

We demonstrate a new variation of molecular-tagging velocimetry for hypersonic flows based on laser-induced fluorescence. A thin line of nitric-oxide molecules is excited with a laser beam and then, after a time delay, a fluorescence image of the displaced line is acquired. One component of velocity is determined from the time of flight. This method is applied to measure the velocity profile in a Mach 8.5 laminar, hypersonic boundary layer in the Australian National University s T2 free-piston shock tunnel. The single-shot velocity measurement uncertainty in the freestream was found to be 3.5%, based on 90% confidence. The method is also demonstrated in the separated flow region forward of a blunt fin attached to a flat plate in a Mach 7.4 flow produced by the Australian National University s T3 free-piston shock tunnel. The measurement uncertainty in the blunt fin experiment is approximately 30%, owing mainly to low fluorescence intensities, which could be improved significantly in future experiments. This velocimetry method is applicable to very high-speed flows that have low collisional quenching of the fluorescing species. It is particularly convenient in facilities where planar laser-induced fluorescence is already being performed.

Danehy, Paul M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Critical Look at Deriving Monthly Aerosol Optical Depth from Satellite Data

Satellite-derived aerosol data sets, such as those provided by NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, are greatly improving our understanding of global aerosol optical depth (AOD). Yet, there are sampling issues. MODIS specific orbital geometry, convolved with the need to avoid bright surfaces (glint, desert, clouds, etc.), means that AOD can be under- or over-sampled in places. When deriving downstream products, such as daily or monthly gridded AOD, one must consider the spatial and temporal density of the measurements relative to the gradients of the true AOD. Additionally, retrieval confidence criteria should be considered. Averaged products are highly dependent on choices made for data aggregation and weighting, and sampling errors can be further propagated when deriving regional or global mean AOD. Different choices for aggregation and weighting result in estimates of regional and global means varying by 30% or more. The impacts of a particular averaging algorithm vary by region and surface type and can be shown to represent different tolerance for clouds and retrieval confidence.

Levy, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Gamma-ray emission from the region of the Galactic center.

A combination nuclear-emulsion-spark-chamber gamma-ray telescope has been used to study the region of sky that includes the Galactic center. Ninety-five per cent confidence upper limits on the flux from the reported sources G-gamma 2+3 and Sgr gamma-1 were placed at .000044 and .000088 photons per sq cm per sec, and a similar limit on the emission from the Galactic center as a point source was placed at .000033 photons per sq cm per sec. No enhanced emission was observed from the Galactic plane. Three regions of enhanced emission were observed that had a combined Poisson probability of occurrence of less than .005. One of these is associated with a region of enhanced emission reported by other workers.

Dahlbacka, G. H.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Confidence Hills Mineralogy and Chemin Results from Base of Mt. Sharp, Pahrump Hills, Gale Crater, Mars

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity recently completed its fourth drill sampling of sediments on Mars. The Confidence Hills (CH) sample was drilled from a rock located in the Pahrump Hills region at the base of Mt. Sharp in Gale Crater. The CheMin X-ray diffractometer completed five nights of analysis on the sample, more than previously executed for a drill sample, and the data have been analyzed using Rietveld refinement and full-pattern fitting to determine quantitative mineralogy. Confidence Hills mineralogy has several important characteristics: 1) abundant hematite and lesser magnetite; 2) a 10 angstrom phyllosilicate; 3) multiple feldspars including plagioclase and alkali feldspar; 4) mafic silicates including forsterite, orthopyroxene, and two types of clinopyroxene (Ca-rich and Ca-poor), consistent with a basaltic source; and 5) minor contributions from sulfur-bearing species including jarosite.

Cavanagh, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Arc Jet Testing of the TIRS Cover Thermal Protection System for Mars Exploration Rover

This paper summarizes the arc jet test results of the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Silicone Impregnated Reusable Ceramic Ablator (SIRCA) Transverse Impulse Rocket System (TIRS) Cover test series in the Panel Test Facility (PTF) at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC). NASA ARC performed aerothermal environment analyses, TPS sizing and thermal response analyses, and arc jet testing to evaluate the MER SIRCA TIRS Cover design and interface to the aeroshell structure. The primary objective of this arc jet test series was to evaluate specific design details of the SIRCA TIRS Cover interface to the MER aeroshell under simulated atmospheric entry heating conditions. Four test articles were tested in an arc jet environment with various sea] configurations. The test condition was designed to match the predicted peak flight heat load at the gap region between the SIRCA and the backshell TPS material, SLA-561S, and resulted in an over-test (with respect to heat flux and heat load) for the apex region of the SIRCA TIRS Cover. The resulting pressure differential was as much as twenty times that predicted for the flight case, depending on the location, and there was no post-test visual evidence of over-heating or damage to the seal, bracket, or backshell structure. The exposed titanium bolts were in good condition at post-test and showed only a small amount of oxidation at the leading edge locations. Repeatable thermocouple data were obtained and SIRCA thermal response analyses were compared to applicable thermocouple data. For the apex region of the SIRCA TIRS Cover, a one-dimensional thermal response prediction proved overly conservative, as there were strong multi-dimensional conduction effects evident from the thermocouple data. The one-dimensional thermal response prediction compared well with the thermocouple data for the leading edge "lip" region at the bolt location. In general, the test results yield confidence in the baseline seal design to prevent hot gas ingestion at the bracket and composite aeroshell structure interface.

Szalai, Christine E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by −2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and −4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

Climate↗
NASA NTRS1990

Gamma-ray burster counterparts - Archival data

This paper reports on the results of a search for optical transient images associated with gamma-ray bursters based on the collection of archival photographs at the Harvard College Observatory. This study searched through over 32,000 plates showing 16 gamma-ray burst error regions. The primary result is the identification of three optical transient images. The recurrence time scale for optical events with a gamma-ray to optical fluence ratio of less than 1000 is estimated to be 1.3 yr (with a 99-percent confidence interval of between 0.41 and 4.8 yr). A control study was simultaneously made where regions of the sky with no bursters were examined. The control region was 15.6 times larger than the burst search region, yet no optical transients were found. This paper describes in detail the methodology and the statistical results. Close attention is paid to a detailed analysis of the three optical transient images.

Schaefer, Bradley E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Positive water vapour feedback in climate models confirmed by satellite data

It has recently been suggested that GCMs used to evaluate climate change overestimate the greenhouse effect due to increased concentrations of trace gases in the atmosphere. Here, new satellite-generated water vapor data are used to compare summer and winter moisture values in regions of the middle and upper troposphere that have previously been difficult to observe with confidence. It is found that, as the hemispheres warm, increased convection leads to increased water vapor above 500 mbar in approximate quantitative agreement with results from current climate models. The same conclusion is reached by comparing the tropical western and eastern Pacific regions. Thus, water vapor feedback is not overestimated in models and should amplify the climate response to increased trace-gas concentrations.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Landslides Across the USA: Occurrence, Susceptibility, and Data Limitations

Detailed information about landslide occurrence is the foundation for advancing process understanding, susceptibility mapping, and risk reduction. Despite the recent revolution in digital elevation data and remote sensing technologies, landslide mapping remains resource intensive. Consequently, a modern, comprehensive map of landslide occurrence across the United States (USA) has not been compiled. As a first step toward this goal, we present a national-scale compilation of existing, publicly available landslide inventories. This geodatabase can be downloaded in its entirety or viewed through an online, searchable map, with parsimonious attributes and direct links to the contributing sources with additional details. The mapped spatial pattern and concentration of landslides are consistent with prior characterization of susceptibility within the conterminous USA, with some notable exceptions on the West Coast. Although the database is evolving and known to be incomplete in many regions, it confirms that landslides do occur across the country, thus highlighting the importance of our national-scale assessment. The map illustrates regions where high-quality mapping has occurred and, in contrast, where additional resources could improve confidence in landslide characterization. For example, borders between states and other jurisdictions are quite apparent, indicating the variation in approaches to data collection by different agencies and disparity between the resources dedicated to landslide characterization. Further investigations are needed to better assess susceptibility and to determine whether regions with high relief and steep topography, but without mapped landslides, require further landslide inventory mapping. Overall, this map provides a new resource for accessing information about known landslides across the USA.

Landslide mapping↗
NASA NTRS1979

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). An overview of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment and the outlook for a satellite crop inventory

The author has identified the following significant results. The most important LACIE finding was that the technology worked very well in estimating wheat production in important geographic locations. Based on working through the many successes and shortcomings of LACIE, it can be stated with confidence that: (1) the current technology can successfully monitor what production in regions having similar characteristics to those of the U.S.S.R. wheat areas and the U.S. hard red winter wheat areas; (2) with additional applied research, significant improvements in capabilities to monitor wheat in these and other important production regions can be expected in the near future; (3) the remote sensing and weather effects modeling technology approached used by LACIE is generally applicable to other major crops and crop-producing regions of the world; and (4) with suitable effort, this technology can now advance rapidly and could be widespread use in the late 1980's.

Erb, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS2004

GRO J2058+42 Observations with Chandra and Discovery of a Likely Optical Counterpart

GRO J2058+42 is a 195 s transient X-ray pulsar discovered in 1995 with BATSE. In 1996, RXTE located GRO J2058+42 to a 90% confidence error circle with a 4' radius. On 20 February 2004, the region including the error circle was observed with Chandra ACIS-I. No X-ray sources were detected within the error circle, however, 2 faint sources were det.ected in the ACISI field-of-view. We obtained optical observations of the brightest object that had about 64 X-ray counts and was just 0.3' outside the error circle. The optical spectrum contained a strong H alpha line and corresponds to an infrared object in the 2MASS catalog, indicating a Be/X-ray system. Although X-ray pulsations were undetectable due to the low count rate, our evidence is strong that this object is the optical counterpart to GRO J2058+42. We present results from the Chandra observation and from the optical observations.

Wilson, Colleen A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Discovery of a Be/X-Ray Binary Consistent with the Location of GRO J2058+42

GRO J2058+42 is a 195 s transient X-ray pulsar discovered in 1995 with BATSE. In 1996, RXTE located GRO J2058+42 to a 90% confidence error circle with a 4 radius. On 2004 February 20, the region including the error circle was observed with Chandra ACIS-I. No X-ray sources were detected within the error circle; however, two faint sources were detected in the ACIS-I field of view. We obtained optical observations of the brightest object, CXOU J205847.5+414637, which had about 64 X-ray counts and was just 013 outside the error circle. The optical spectrum contains a strong Ha line and corresponds to an inhued object in the Two Micron All Sky Survey catalog, indicating a Be/X-ray binary system. Pulsations were not detected in the Chandra observations, but similar flux variations and distance estimates suggest that CXOU J205847.5+414637 and GRO J2058+42 are the same object. We present results from the Chandra observation, optical observations, new and previously unreported RXTE observations, and a reanalysis of a ROSAT observation.

Wilson, Colleen↗
NASA NTRS2015

Extension and Statistical Analysis of the GACP Aerosol Optical Thickness Record.

The primary product of the Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP) is a continuous record of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over the oceans. It is based on channel-1 and -2 radiance data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments flown on successive National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) platforms. We extend the previous GACP dataset by four years through the end of 2009 using NOAA-17 and -18 AVHRR radiances recalibrated against MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) radiance data, thereby making the GACP record almost three decades long. The temporal overlap of over three years of the new NOAA-17 and the previous NOAA-16 record reveals an excellent agreement of the corresponding global monthly mean AOT values, thereby confirming the robustness of the vicarious radiance calibration used in the original GACP product. The temporal overlap of the NOAA-17 and -18 instruments is used to introduce a small additive adjustment to the channel-2 calibration of the latter resulting in a consistent record with increased data density. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the newly extended GACP record shows that most of the volcanic AOT variability can be isolated into one mode responsible for ~12% of the total variance. This conclusion is confirmed by a combined PCA analysis of the GACP, MODIS, andMulti-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) AOTs during the volcano-free period fromFebruary 2000 to December 2009.We show that the modes responsible for the tropospheric AOT variability in the three datasets agree well in terms of correlation and spatial patterns. A previously identified negative AOT trend which started in the late 1980s and continued into the early 2000s is confirmed. Its magnitude and duration indicate that it was caused by changes in tropospheric aerosols. The latest multi-satellite segment of the GACP record shows that this trend tapered off, with no noticeable AOT change after 2002. This result is consistent with the MODIS andMISR AOT records as well as with the recent gradual reversal frombrightening to dimming revealed by surface flux measurements in many aerosol producing regions. Thus the robustness of the GACP record is confirmed, increasing our confidence in the validity of the negative trend. Although the nominal negative GACP AOT trend could partially be an artifact of increasing aerosol absorption, we argue that the time dependence of the GACP record, including the latest flat period, is more consistent with the actual decrease in the tropospheric AOT.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS1995

The stellar content of 30 doradus derived from spatially integrated ultraviolet spectra: A test of spectral synthesis models

Using the IUE satellite, we have obtained spatially integrated ultraviolet spectra of three areas within the giant H II region 30 Dor in the Large Magellanic Cloud. The spectra correspond to spatial reginswith sizes of 20 sec x 20 sec, 1 min x 1 min, and 3 min x 3 min, all of which are approximately centered on R136. We have performed a spectral synthesis analysis of the spectra of the two larger regions and compared the results with the known stellar content in these regions. The spectral synthesis models are sensitive to the ultraviolet continuum level, the P Cygni profile of the C Iv wavelength 1550 line, the absorption strength of the Si IV wavelength 1400 line, and the emission strength of the He II wavelength 1640 line. The intrinsic continuum levels and the profiles of these stellar wind lines provide constraints on the age and duration of the starburst episode within a region, as well as on the upper curoff mass of the initial mass function. From our analysis we find that the present-day value of the upper cutoff mass in the 1 min x 1 min and 3 min x 3 min regions has a lower limit of approximately 50 solar mass, a result which is in good agreement with several other recent determinations. The age of the starburst episode must be less than approximately 3 Myr, also in agreement with other estimates. Comparison of the observed total numbers of O and W-R stars with those predicted from the various models favors an instantaneous burst of star formation in the regions. However, the differences between the two burst scenarios we investigated (instantaneous and continuous) are small at such a young age, and distinguishing between the two is difficult. We are now confident that these spectral synthesis models can be used to determine the stellar content of more distant star-forming regions.

Vacca, William D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Combined Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Lake Chad Level Variability Region

In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Niña in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Niño phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Niña episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.

ENSO↗
NASA NTRS2004

GRO J2058+42 Observations with Chandra and Detection of a Likely Optical Counterpart

GRO J2058+42 is a 195-s transient X-ray pulsar discovered in 1995 with BATSE. In 1996, RXTE located GRO J2058+42 to a 90% confidence error circle with a 4-arcminute radius. On 20 February 2004, the region including the error circle was observed with Chandra ACIS-I. No X-ray sources were detected within the error circle, however, 2 faint sources were detected in the ACIS-I field-of-view. We obtained follow-up optical observations of the brightest object, that had about 64 X-ray counts and was just 0.3 arcmin outside the error circle. The optical spectrum contained a strong H-alpha line and corresponds to an infrared object in the 2MASS catalog, indicating a Be/X-ray system. Although X-ray pulsations were undetectable due to the low count rate, this object is most likely the optical counterpart to GRO J2058+42. We present results from the Chandra observation and from the optical observations.

Wilson, Colleen A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Stereo Vision Based Terrain Mapping for Off-Road Autonomous Navigation

Successful off-road autonomous navigation by an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) requires reliable perception and representation of natural terrain. While perception algorithms are used to detect driving hazards, terrain mapping algorithms are used to represent the detected hazards in a world model a UGV can use to plan safe paths. There are two primary ways to detect driving hazards with perception sensors mounted to a UGV: binary obstacle detection and traversability cost analysis. Binary obstacle detectors label terrain as either traversable or non-traversable, whereas, traversability cost analysis assigns a cost to driving over a discrete patch of terrain. In uncluttered environments where the non-obstacle terrain is equally traversable, binary obstacle detection is sufficient. However, in cluttered environments, some form of traversability cost analysis is necessary. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has explored both approaches using stereo vision systems. A set of binary detectors has been implemented that detect positive obstacles, negative obstacles, tree trunks, tree lines, excessive slope, low overhangs, and water bodies. A compact terrain map is built from each frame of stereo images. The mapping algorithm labels cells that contain obstacles as no-go regions, and encodes terrain elevation, terrain classification, terrain roughness, traversability cost, and a confidence value. The single frame maps are merged into a world map where temporal filtering is applied. In previous papers, we have described our perception algorithms that perform binary obstacle detection. In this paper, we summarize the terrain mapping capabilities that JPL has implemented during several UGV programs over the last decade and discuss some challenges to building terrain maps with stereo range data.

passive perception↗