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NASA NTRS2015

Constraining Black Carbon Aerosol over Asia using OMI Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth and the Adjoint of GEOS-Chem

Accurate estimates of the emissions and distribution of black carbon (BC) in the region referred to here as Southeastern Asia (70degE-l50degE, 11degS-55degN) are critical to studies of the atmospheric environment and climate change. Analysis of modeled BC concentrations compared to in situ observations indicates levels are underestimated over most of Southeast Asia when using any of four different emission inventories. We thus attempt to reduce uncertainties in BC emissions and improve BC model simulations by developing top-down, spatially resolved, estimates of BC emissions through assimilation of OMI observations of aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) with the GEOS-Chem model and its adjoint for April and October of 2006. Overwhelming enhancements, up to 500%, in anthropogenic BC emissions are shown after optimization over broad areas of Southeast Asia in April. In October, the optimization of anthropogenic emissions yields a slight reduction (1-5%) over India and parts of southern China, while emissions increase by 10-50% over eastern China. Observational data from in situ measurements and AERONET observations are used to evaluate the BC inversions and assess the bias between OMI and AERONET AAOD. Low biases in BC concentrations are improved or corrected in most eastern and central sites over China after optimization, while the constrained model still underestimates concentrations in Indian sites in both April and October, possibly as a. consequence of low prior emissions. Model resolution errors may contribute up to a factor of 2.5 to the underestimate of surface BC concentrations over northern India. We also compare the optimized results using different anthropogenic emission inventories and discuss the sensitivity of top-down constraints on anthropogenic emissions with respect to biomass burning emissions. In addition, the impacts of brown carbon, the formulation of the observation operator, and different a priori constraints on the optimization are investigated. Overall, despite these limitations and uncertainties, using OMI AAOD to constrain BC sources improves model representation of BC distributions, particularly over China.

Aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2013

Constraining Cometary Crystal Shapes from IR Spectral Features

A major challenge in deriving the silicate mineralogy of comets is ascertaining how the anisotropic nature of forsterite crystals affects the spectral features' wavelength, relative intensity, and asymmetry. Forsterite features are identified in cometary comae near 10, 11.05-11.2, 16, 19, 23.5, 27.5 and 33 microns [1-10], so accurate models for forsterite's absorption efficiency (Qabs) are a primary requirement to compute IR spectral energy distributions (SEDs, lambdaF lambda vs. lambda) and constrain the silicate mineralogy of comets. Forsterite is an anisotropic crystal, with three crystallographic axes with distinct indices of refraction for the a-, b-, and c-axis. The shape of a forsterite crystal significantly affects its spectral features [13-16]. We need models that account for crystal shape. The IR absorption efficiencies of forsterite are computed using the discrete dipole approximation (DDA) code DDSCAT [11,12]. Starting from a fiducial crystal shape of a cube, we systematically elongate/reduce one of the crystallographic axes. Also, we elongate/reduce one axis while the lengths of the other two axes are slightly asymmetric (0.8:1.2). The most significant grain shape characteristic that affects the crystalline spectral features is the relative lengths of the crystallographic axes. The second significant grain shape characteristic is breaking the symmetry of all three axes [17]. Synthetic spectral energy distributions using seven crystal shape classes [17] are fit to the observed SED of comet C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp). The Hale-Bopp crystalline residual better matches equant, b-platelets, c-platelets, and b-columns spectral shape classes, while a-platelets, a-columns and c-columns worsen the spectral fits. Forsterite condensation and partial evaporation experiments demonstrate that environmental temperature and grain shape are connected [18-20]. Thus, grain shape is a potential probe for protoplanetary disk temperatures where the cometary crystalline forsterite formed. The forsterite crystal shapes (equant, b-platelets, c-platelets, b-columns - excluding a- and c-columns) derived from our modeling [17] of comet Hale- Bopp, compared to laboratory synthesis experiments [18], suggests that these crystals are high temperature condensates. By observing and modeling the crystalline features in comet ISON, we may constrain forsterite crystal shape(s) and link to their formation temperature(s) and environment(s).

anisotropic crystal↗

NASA NTRS2013

Does Aspartic Acid Racemization Constrain the Depth Limit of the Subsurface Biosphere?

Previous studies of the subsurface biosphere have deduced average cellular doubling times of hundreds to thousands of years based upon geochemical models. We have directly constrained the in situ average cellular protein turnover or doubling times for metabolically active micro-organisms based on cellular amino acid abundances, D/L values of cellular aspartic acid, and the in vivo aspartic acid racemization rate. Application of this method to planktonic microbial communities collected from deep fractures in South Africa yielded maximum cellular amino acid turnover times of approximately 89 years for 1 km depth and 27 C and 1-2 years for 3 km depth and 54 C. The latter turnover times are much shorter than previously estimated cellular turnover times based upon geochemical arguments. The aspartic acid racemization rate at higher temperatures yields cellular protein doubling times that are consistent with the survival times of hyperthermophilic strains and predicts that at temperatures of 85 C, cells must replace proteins every couple of days to maintain enzymatic activity. Such a high maintenance requirement may be the principal limit on the abundance of living micro-organisms in the deep, hot subsurface biosphere, as well as a potential limit on their activity. The measurement of the D/L of aspartic acid in biological samples is a potentially powerful tool for deep, fractured continental and oceanic crustal settings where geochemical models of carbon turnover times are poorly constrained. Experimental observations on the racemization rates of aspartic acid in living thermophiles and hyperthermophiles could test this hypothesis. The development of corrections for cell wall peptides and spores will be required, however, to improve the accuracy of these estimates for environmental samples.

cellular↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions Based on a Bank of Norm-Inequality-Constrained Epoch-State Filters

Sequential probability ratio tests explicitly allow decision makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models 1he null hypothesis 1ha1 the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming highly-elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Multiple Flow Constrained Area Capacity Setting Methods for Collaborative Trajectory Options Program

The purpose of this study was to compare flow constrained area (FCA) capacity setting methods for Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) as they pertain to the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept. IDM uses flow balancing to manage air traffic across multiple FCAs with a common downstream constraint, as well as constraints at the respective FCA locations. FCA capacity rates can be set manually, but generating capacities for multiple, interdependent FCAs could potentially over-burden a user. A new enhancement to CTOP called the FCA Balance Algorithm (FBA) was developed at NASA Ames Research Center to improve the process of allocating capacity across multiple flow constrained segments in the airspace. The FBA evaluates the predicted demand and capacity across multiple FCAs and dynamically generates capacity settings for the FCAs that best meet capacity limits for all identified constraints. In a human-in-the-loop simulation study, both manual and automated capacity setting methods were evaluated in terms of their overall feasibility using measures of system performance, human performance, and qualitative feedback. Subject matter experts were asked to use three different methods to allocate capacity to three FCAs, either (1) by manually setting capacity for every 60-minute time window, (2) by manually setting capacity for every 15-minute time window, or (3) by using the FBA capability to automatically generate capacity settings. Results showed no significant differences in terms of overall system performance, indicated by similar ground delay and airport throughput numbers between methods. However, differences in individual strategies afforded by the manual methods allowed some participants to achieve system-wide delay that was much lower than the average. The FBA was the fastest method of capacity setting, and it received the lowest subjective rating scores on physical task load, mental task load, task difficulty and task complexity out of the three methods. Finally, participants explained through qualitative feedback that there were many benefits to using the FBA, such as ease of use, accuracy, and low risk of human input error. Participants did not experience the same limitations with the FBA that they did with the manual methods, such as reduced accuracy in the 60-minute manual condition, or high complexity in the 15-minute/manual condition. These results suggest that the FBA automation enhancement to CTOP maintains system performance while improving human performance. Therefore, the FBA could be introduced as a way to mitigate operator workload while planning a CTOP.

NextGen↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Multiple Flow Constrained Area Capacity Setting Methods for Collaborative Trajectory Options Program

NextGen↗

NASA NTRS2020

Constraining the Temperature of Impact Melt from the Mistastin Lake Impact Structure Using Zircon Crystal Structures

Impact melt is a product of hyper-velocity impact events formed by the instantaneous melting of near-surface target rocks. Constraining the temperature of impact melt is vital to understanding its prograde heating and cooling history, which can have implications for inferring the environment of early Earth ~4.0 billion years ago when microbial life potentially arose. To date, only one datum on the initial impact melt temperature has been derived by Timms et al. These authors studied zirconia microstructures and crystallographic orientations that revealed the former presence of cubic zirconia, found in a black impact glass at the Mistastin Lake impact structure, Canada. The presence of cubic zirconia indicates a minimum temperature for the impact melt of >2370°C from the dissociation temperature of zircon to cubic zirconia and liquid SiO2. With only one temperature datum, it is still difficult to constrain the entire temperature range experienced during the impact melting process; from its instantaneous formation to thermal equilibrium with the “cold” clasts collected along the crater floor and walls. In addition, obtaining a temperature value from only one type of impactite limits the inferred temperature range, because each impactite experiences a different cooling history. In this study, we present a preliminary investigation of 61 zircon crystals, 14 of which are similar to those studied by Timms et al., from the Mistastin Lake impact structure. To acquire a more accurate temperature profile representative of impact melt, zircon crystals were collected from different types of impactites containing impact melt, including additional samples of the black impact glass studied by Timms et al.

Tolometti, G. D.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Constraining Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions from Urban Area Using OCO-2 Observations of Total Column CO2

Satellite observations of the total column dry-air CO2(XCO2) are expected to support the quantification and monitoring of fossil fuel CO2 (ffCO2) emissions from urban areas. We evaluate the utility of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) XCO2 retrievals to optimize whole-city emissions, using a Bayesian inversion system and high-resolution transport modeling. The uncertainties of constrained emissions related to transport model, satellite measurements, and local biospheric fluxes are quantified. For the first two uncertainty sources, we examine cities of different landscapes: “plume city” located in relatively flat terrain, represented by Riyadh and Cairo; “basin city” located in basin terrain, represented by Los Angeles (LA). The retrieved scaling factors of emissions and their uncertainties show prominent variabilities from track to track, due to the varying meteorological conditions and relative locations of the tracks transecting plumes. To explore the performance of multiple tracks in retrieving emissions, pseudo data experiments are carried out. The estimated least number of tracks required to constrain the total emissions for Riyadh (<10% uncertainty), Cairo (<10%), and LA (<5%) are 5, 8, and 7, respectively. Additionally, to evaluate the impact of biospheric fluxes on derivation of the ffXCO2 enhancements, we conduct simulations for Pearl River Delta metropolitan area. Significant fractions of local XCO2 enhancements associated with local biospheric XCO2 variations are shown, which potentially lead to biased estimates of ffCO2 emissions. We demonstrate that satellite measurements can be used to improve urban ffCO2 emissions with a sufficient amount of measurements and appropriate representations of the uncertainty components.

Xinxin Ye↗

NASA NTRS2019

Constraining global aerosol emissions using POLDER/PARASOL satellite remote sensing observations

We invert global black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and desert dust (DD) aerosol emissions from POLDER/PARASOL spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) using the GEOS-Chem inverse modeling framework. Our inverse modeling framework uses standard a priori emissions to provide a posteriori emissions that are constrained by POLDER/PARASOL AODs and AAODs. The following global emission values were retrieved for the three aerosol components: 18.4 Tg/yr for BC, 109.9 Tg/yr for OC and 731.6 Tg/yr for DD for the year 2010. These values show a difference of +166.7 %, +184.0 % and −42.4 %, respectively, with respect to the a priori values of emission inventories used in “standard” GEOS-Chem runs. The model simulations using a posteriori emissions (i.e., retrieved emissions) provide values of 0.119 for global mean AOD and 0.0071 for AAOD at 550 nm, which are +13.3 % and +82.1 %, respectively, higher than the AOD and AAOD obtained using the a priori values of emissions. Additionally, the a posteriori model simulation of AOD, AAOD, single scattering albedo, Ångström exponent and absorption Ångström exponent show better agreement with independent AERONET, MODIS and OMI measurements than the a priori simulation. Thus, this study suggests that using satellite-constrained global aerosol emissions in aerosol transport models can improve the accuracy of simulated global aerosol properties.

chemical transport model (CTM) simulations↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring and predicting the health of physical systems. Prognostics algorithms are useful in that they can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system state throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. However, effective prognosis can be challenging to achieve in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for some prognostics applications. In this work, we implement three new algorithmic approaches to prediction (sampling methods, variable prediction time step, variable prediction sample size) with the goal of improving computational efficiency while minimizing decrease in model accuracy. To quantitatively analyze our results, we examine a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. Notably, through this work it was found that none of the sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. However, our results show that prediction accuracy is highly dependent on the time step used, and that an appropriate time step can optimize both model accuracy and simulation efficiency. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment in an application-specific manner may prove useful in some applications. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency of prognosis.

Prognostics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aqueous Alteration on the Ryugu Parent Body Constrained by Chemical Equilibrium Models

The composition of solid samples returned from the asteroid 162173 Ryugu byHayabusa2 indicates aqueous alteration of rocks that formed a parent body of Ryugu [1, 2]. As on parent bodies of carbonaceous chondrites [3-5], Ryugu materials could have went through (1) accretion of anhydrous and reduced rocky grains together with water-rich ices, (2) melting of ices in the body’s interior through release of radiogenic heat [6], and (3)aqueous alteration of rocky and organic materials that produced secondary minerals, salt- and organic-bearing water solutions, gases, and altered organic matter. Although the bulk chemical composition and major mineralogy (phyllosilicates, magnetite, pyrrhotite, carbonates, phosphates, etc.) of Ryugu [1,2]are similar to those of CI carbonaceous chondrites [3-5, 7], the lack of sulfates and a deficiency of oxygen in the returned samples suggest a distinct alteration pathway. Chondritic materials [3-5] do not indicate complete chemical equilibration though low-temperature parent body processes. However, calculations of chemical equilibria in modeling rock-water-gas type systems[e.g., 8, 9], could assess deviations of chondritic materials from equilibrium conditions and constrain partitioning of chemical elements between solid, aqueous, and gas phase for different stages of alteration. Here we constrained speciation of solid, aqueous, and gaseous phases during aqueous alteration on the Ryugu parent body through chemical equilibrium calculations.

M Yu Zolotov↗

NASA NTRS2022

Simons Observatory: Constraining inflationary gravitational waves with multitracer B-mode delensing

We introduce and validate a delensing framework for the Simons Observatory (SO), which will be used to improve constraints on inflationary gravitational waves by reducing the lensing noise in measurements of the B modes in CMB polarization. SO will initially observe CMB by using three small aperture telescopes and one large-aperture telescope. While polarization maps from small-aperture telescopes will be used to constrain inflationary gravitational waves, the internal CMB lensing maps used to delens will be reconstructed from data from the large-aperture telescope. Since lensing maps obtained from the SO data will be noise dominated on subdegree scales, the SO lensing framework constructs a template for lensing-induced B modes by combining internal CMB lensing maps with maps of the cosmic infrared background from Planck as well as galaxy density maps from the LSST survey. We construct a likelihood for constraining the tensor-to-scalar ratio r that contains auto and cross spectra between observed B modes and the lensing B-mode template. We test our delensing analysis pipeline on map-based simulations containing survey nonidealities, but that, for this initial exploration, does not include contamination from Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds. We find that the SO survey masking and inhomogeneous and atmospheric noise have very little impact on the delensing performance, and the r constraint becomes σ(r)≈0.0015 which is close to that obtained from the idealized forecasts in the absence of the Galactic foreground and is nearly a factor of 2 tighter than without delensing. We also find that uncertainties in the external large-scale structure tracers used in our multitracer delensing pipeline lead to bias much smaller than the 1σ statistical uncertainties.

Toshiya Namikawa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Constraining the Hydration of X-Ray Amorphous and Clay Mineral Phases in Gale Crater, Mars

Clay minerals and salts in the Gale crater stratigraphy investigated by the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover preserve information about sediment sources, depositional environment, and post-depositional alteration history. The compositions of amorphous components in samples have bearing on the redox potential, pH, and chemistry of alteration fluids, and on the heterogeneity of these conditions. Interlayer clay hydration in present-day Gale crater could be an indication of high water/rock ratios of late-stage fluid alteration events, which increases the potential habitability of these post-depositional environments. The MSL Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons instrument (DAN) measures bulk hydration and here we attempt to determine the hydration states of both clay minerals and amorphous components throughout the Curiosity traverse to constrain the abundance of individual amorphous phases and determine if clay interlayer water is present today. These implications are also more broadly applicable to similar sedimentary successions outside Gale crater. In this study, we compare hydration results from DAN to mineralogical results from the MSL Chemistry and Mineralogy instrument (CheMin) for 16 different fluvio-lacustrine sample locations. These samples typically contain one or more hydrated crystalline phases, a hydrated X-ray amorphous fraction composed of multiple amorphous phases, and one or more clay mineral phases which CheMin has consistently measured as collapsed (i.e., no interlayer water). However, Gale samples are known to dehydrate during sample acquisition and handling, and because DAN measures hydration to a depth of tens of cm, we can test for the presence of clay interlayer water in situ by comparing DAN bulk hydration to CheMin mineralogy. We can also constrain the hydration of the samples’ amorphous fractions, and with geochemical data from the ChemCam and APXS instruments, this will allow us to better define the phases which compose this fraction.

S Czarnecki↗

NASA NTRS2024

Under-Constrained SEE Data: Implications for Estimating and Bounding SEE Rates

Increasingly scarce SEE testing resources and rapid growth of the New Space sector have increased the prevalence of under-constrained SEE data. We develop Monte Carlo tools to assess implications for SEE rate estimation. We also show that Bayesian Priors based on large datasets of SEL susceptible parts can augment under-constrained data and improve bounds on SEL rates. The resulting Bayesian Priors are also useful for bounding system SEL risk.

Single-event effect↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Habitability Potential of Martian Hydrothermal Systems Constrained from Exploration of a Magma-Sediment Hydrothermal System in the Colorado Plateau

Mars has a crust predominately composed of basalt, which displays wide-spread processes including volcanic hydrothermal systems and reference within. There is an abundance of evidence of previous low temperature hydrous alteration; however, finding evidence of high-temperature hydrothermal activity has been challenging. Therefore, we are investigating a mafic dike and the surrounding metamorphic contact zone to constrain how to find such systems on Mars and their habitability potential on Earth and by extension Mars. DC Dike (DCD) is in the Colorado Plateau, in south-central Utah, and intruded the Entrada formation Sandstone between 3.8 and 4.6 Ma. We chose Mars analog instrumentation to make our results directly applicable to those on Mars: Visible-Near Infrared reflectance spectroscopy (VNIR), X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). 21 samples were analyzed with an Ore Express VNIR with wavelengths from 350-2500 nm. Bulk mineralogy is determined by using a Panalytical XRD including for clay fraction and soil separation analysis. Finally, samples are prepped as thin sections and will be analyzed using a SEM. All these techniques will be used to constrain: the mineralogy of the system, how the hydrothermal system cooled, the habitability of the cooling system, and how DCD relates to similar dikes in the area and on Mars. All of these results will then be compared to similar systems Mars, and if they too could have been habitable environments.

R. A. Slank↗

NASA NTRS2023

Single-Scattering Properties of Ellipsoidal Dust Aerosols Constrained By Measured Dust Shape Distributions

Most global aerosol models approximate dust as spherical particles, whereas most remote sensing retrieval algorithms approximate dust as spheroidal particles with a shape distribution that conflicts with measurements. These inconsistent and inaccurate shape assumptions generate biases in dust single-scattering properties. Here, we obtain dust single-scattering properties by approximating dust as triaxial ellipsoidal particles with observationally constrained shape distributions. We find that, relative to the ellipsoidal dust optics obtained here, the spherical dust optics used in most aerosol models underestimate dust single-scattering albedo, mass extinction efficiency, and asymmetry parameter for almost all dust sizes in both the shortwave and longwave spectra. We further find that the ellipsoidal dust optics are in substantially better agreement with observations of the scattering matrix and linear depolarization ratio than the spheroidal dust optics used in most retrieval algorithms. However, relative to observations, the ellipsoidal dust optics overestimate the lidar ratio by underestimating the backscattering intensity by a factor of ∼2. This occurs largely because the computational method used to simulate ellipsoidal dust optics (i.e., the improved geometric optics method) underestimates the backscattering intensity by a factor of ∼2 relative to other computational methods (e.g., the physical geometric optics method). We conclude that the ellipsoidal dust optics with observationally constrained shape distributions can help improve global aerosol models and possibly remote sensing retrieval algorithms that do not use the backscattering signal.

Dust↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Satellite-Constrained Modeled Air-Sea CO 2 Fluxes With a Focus on the Strength of the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

Challenge and Motivation: The ocean plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by removing approximately a quarter of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere. Model-based estimates point to the Southern Ocean as a key marine region, responsible for approximately 40 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake by the global ocean. However, the contemporary strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink has recently come into question. On the one hand, airborne-based observations of atmospheric CO 2 gradients indicate that the Southern Ocean represents a strong net sink of atmospheric CO 2 , consistent in magnitude with atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 )-based products. On the other hand, estimates of pCO 2 based on in situ pH measurements taken by biogeochemical profiling floats yield strong wintertime outgassing fluxes that greatly reduce the Southern Ocean’s annually integrated CO 2 uptake. This uncertainty in the strength of the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux and its role in the global carbon cycle hinders our ability to constrain global carbon fluxes, one of the major goals of NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS). Opportunity: The NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) produces near-global pCO 2 and air-sea CO 2 flux estimates that are currently included into the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) models in support of the CMS effort to monitor global carbon fluxes. The NOBM assimilates ocean color data to improve the representation of biogeochemical fluxes and overcome spatial and temporal gaps in the space-based retrievals. Here, we propose to advance the satellite-constrained flux estimates by investigating the uncertainties in the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux produced by the NOBM, and assess the value that remote sensing ocean color data can have in providing improved estimates of carbon fluxes in the ocean. Our proposed work includes the delivery of refined in situ float-based carbon fluxes to serve as a constraint on the model-based estimates. Taking advantage of the model’s integration of satellite ocean color data to represent multiple phytoplankton groups, we propose to deliver maps of biogenic carbon export specific to each modeled phytoplankton type and investigate the role of ecological plankton complexity in regulating marine carbon uptake and export. Goals: (a) Delivery of seasonally-adjusted float-based Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 fluxes: We will produce updated and improved float-based air-sea CO 2 fluxes that will serve as a bias-reduced float-based constraint to evaluate our model-based estimates of the NOBM. (b) Investigation of uncertainties in Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux from the NOBM: Modeled air-sea carbon fluxes will be evaluated against the updated float product as well as ship- and airborne-based data to identify uncertainties and potential model deficiencies. (c) Delivery of model-based carbon export partitioning by phytoplankton functional types (PFTs): We will produce depth-resolved maps of particulate organic export production integrated for all phytoplankton groups and allocated to each individual PFT in the model. The expected significance of this goal is to quantify the role that the functional-oriented diversity in phytoplankton groups represented in the NOBM plays in regulating air-sea CO 2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean.

Lionel A. Arteaga↗