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NASA NTRS2011

NASA Presentation to TechAmerica G12 Committee

This slide presentation reviews some of the actions that NASA is taking to address the issue of counterfeit electronic parts. While the emphasis is on electronic parts, the vision is broad enough to include materials and software. The effort includes coordination with other agencies, to identify and with the Government-Industry Data Exchange Program (GIDEP). An interim GIDEP Policy for suspected counterfeits was instituted. NASA's recommendation to the policy was for identification of the supplier and suggests allowing access to that information by government only. The issues with the General MIL specification, the testing requirements for radiation issues, the continuing development of Class Y standards for electronic equipment, status of package case isolation tests needed for 750 and 883,enhancement of 750 Internal Visual Inspection are reviewed. Further issues with consistent ESD control conditions across commodities, test methods, humidity limits, etc are briefly reviewed. The cost benefit analysis of film versus Real time radiography are also reviewed.

LaBel, Kenneth A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Communicating Medical Needs to Non-Medical Managers

Differences in communication styles and languages between groups often lead to miscommunication, confusion, and/or frustration. Engineers, computer specialists, clinicians, and managers often utilize the English language in very different ways, with different groups using the same words to represent different concepts ("complaint" is a typical example). In addition, medical issues are often perceived as "off-nominal" and not "primary mission tasks" by managers, which can cause them to assign lower priorities to medical training time and resources. Knowledge bases differ due to variations in training and skill sets, and the goals (both immediate and long-term) of the communicators may also vary, with managers being primarily concerned with overall mission objectives, while clinicians focus on individual or group health issues. Furthermore, true communication is only possible when clinicians possess a deep understanding of mission requirements as well as the ability to communicate medical requirements on a priority basis using risk assessment, added value, and cost benefit analysis. These understandable differences may contribute to difficulties in expressing concerns and ideas in an efficient manner, particularly in projects, such as the space program or many military operations, where these varied groups must collaborate, and where the final decisions must be made by fully informed mission commanders. Methods: Three scenario-based approaches were developed utilizing decision trees and problem based learning, to help define and integrate these concepts. Results: Use of these techniques by NASA and military personnel will be presented. Discussion: To enhance communication, particularly of medical needs, one must identify the concerns and motivating factors for the other groups; for example, members of management may focus on financial concerns, a desire for risk mitigation, public perceptions, mission objectives, etc. Training clinicians to frame issues in these terms may lead to better understanding of the medical concerns by other groups.

Bacal, Kira↗
NASA NTRS2008

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Third Quarter FY-08

This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the third quarter of Fiscal Year 2008 (April - June 2008). Tasks reported on are: Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS Phase II, Completion of the Edward Air Force Base (EAFB) Statistical Guidance Wind Tool, Volume Averaged Height Integ rated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR), Impact of Local Sensors, Radar Scan Strategies for the PAFB WSR-74C Replacement, VAHIRR Cost Benefit Analysis, and WRF Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base

Bauman, William↗
NASA NTRS2013

Feasibility of a Networked Air Traffic Infrastructure Validation Environment for Advanced NextGen Concepts

Abstract-Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) applications reliant upon aircraft data links such as Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) offer a sweeping modernization of the National Airspace System (NAS), but the aviation stakeholder community has not yet established a positive business case for equipage and message content standards remain in flux. It is necessary to transition promising Air Traffic Management (ATM) Concepts of Operations (ConOps) from simulation environments to full-scale flight tests in order to validate user benefits and solidify message standards. However, flight tests are prohibitively expensive and message standards for Commercial-off-the-Shelf (COTS) systems cannot support many advanced ConOps. It is therefore proposed to simulate future aircraft surveillance and communications equipage and employ an existing commercial data link to exchange data during dedicated flight tests. This capability, referred to as the Networked Air Traffic Infrastructure Validation Environment (NATIVE), would emulate aircraft data links such as ADS-B using in-flight Internet and easily-installed test equipment. By utilizing low-cost equipment that is easy to install and certify for testing, advanced ATM ConOps can be validated, message content standards can be solidified, and new standards can be established through full-scale flight trials without necessary or expensive equipage or extensive flight test preparation. This paper presents results of a feasibility study of the NATIVE concept. To determine requirements, six NATIVE design configurations were developed for two NASA ConOps that rely on ADS-B. The performance characteristics of three existing in-flight Internet services were investigated to determine whether performance is adequate to support the concept. Next, a study of requisite hardware and software was conducted to examine whether and how the NATIVE concept might be realized. Finally, to determine a business case, economic factors were evaluated and a preliminary cost-benefit analysis was performed.

McCormack, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Technical Challenges and Opportunities of Centralizing Space Science Mission Operations (SSMO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

The NASA Goddard Space Science Mission Operations project (SSMO) is performing a technical cost-benefit analysis for centralizing and consolidating operations of a diverse set of missions into a unified and integrated technical infrastructure. The presentation will focus on the notion of normalizing spacecraft operations processes, workflows, and tools. It will also show the processes of creating a standardized open architecture, creating common security models and implementations, interfaces, services, automations, notifications, alerts, logging, publish, subscribe and middleware capabilities. The presentation will also discuss how to leverage traditional capabilities, along with virtualization, cloud computing services, control groups and containers, and possibly Big Data concepts.

Science↗
NASA NTRS2017

Microwave Thermal Propulsion

We have conducted research in microwave thermal propulsion as part of the space exploration access technologies (SEAT) research program, a cooperative agreement (NNX09AF52A) between NASA and Carnegie Mellon University. The SEAT program commenced on the 19th of February 2009 and concluded on the 30th of September 2015. The DARPA/NASA Millimeter-wave Thermal Launch System (MTLS) project subsumed the SEAT program from May 2012 to March 2014 and one of us (Parkin) served as its principal investigator and chief engineer. The MTLS project had no final report of its own, so we have included the MTLS work in this report and incorporate its conclusions here. In the six years from 2009 until 2015 there has been significant progress in millimeter-wave thermal rocketry (a subset of microwave thermal rocketry), most of which has been made under the auspices of the SEAT and MTLS programs. This final report is intended for multiple audiences. For researchers, we present techniques that we have developed to simplify and quantify the performance of thermal rockets and their constituent technologies. For program managers, we detail the facilities that we have built and the outcomes of experiments that were conducted using them. We also include incomplete and unfruitful lines of research. For decision-makers, we introduce the millimeter-wave thermal rocket in historical context. Considering the economic significance of space launch, we present a brief but significant cost-benefit analysis, for the first time showing that there is a compelling economic case for replacing conventional rockets with millimeter-wave thermal rockets.

Parkin, Kevin L. G.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Risk and Performance Assessment of Generic Mission Architectures: Showcasing the Artemis Mission

A has initiated a strong push to return face. In this work, we astronaut assess performance and risk for proposed mission architectures using a new Mission Architecture Risk Assessment (MARA) tool. The MARA tool can produce statistics about the availability of components and overall performance of the mission considering potential failures of any of its components. In a Monte Carlo approach, the tool repeats the mission simulation multiple times while a random generator lets modules fail according to their failure rates. The results provide statistically meaningful insights into the overall performance of the chosen architecture. A given mission architecture can be freely replicated in the tool, with the mission timeline and basic characteristics of employed mission modules (habitats, rovers, power generation units, etc.) specified in a configuration file. Crucially, failure rates for each module need to be known or estimated. The tool performs an event-driven simulation of the mission and accounts for random failure events. Failed modules can be repaired, which takes crew time but restores operations. In addition to tracking individual modules, MARA can assess the availability of predefined functions throughout the mission. For instance, the function of resource collection would require a rover to collect the resources, a power generation unit to charge the rover, and a resource processing module. Together, the modules that are required for a given function are called a functional group. Similarly, we can assess how much crew time is available to achieve a mission benefit (e.g. research, building a base, etc) as opposed to spending crew time on repairs. Here we employ the method on the proposed NASA Artemis mission. Artemis aims to return United States astronauts to the lunar surface by 2024. Results provide insights into mission failure probabilities, up- and downtime for individual modules and crew-time resources spent on the repair of failed modules. The tool also allows us to tweak the mission architecture in order to find setups that produce more favorable mission performance. As such, the tool can be an aid in improving the mission architect abling cost-benefit analysis for mission improvement.

Rumpf, Clemens M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A New Vision and A More Rational Process Will Advance Space Life Support Through Better Projects

Many space life support assumptions are obviously mistaken but they are generally accepted because they mutually support each other and because they advance a mistaken futuristic vision of closed human ecosystems in space. Many projects have been mistakenly selected to increase life support system closure or reduce launch mass in order to implement this impractical vision. Project members rarely challenge their project’s assumptions and guiding vision. Systems engineering including cost, reliability, risk, and system trade-offs has been very strongly discouraged to prevent rational criticism of these dubious assumptions, the projects, and the ecosystem vision. A more realistic vision can define better near term life support goals and future aspirations that will improve mission support and increase public interest. Given more realistic goals, it will be possible to develop effective technical alternatives, use open rational project selection methods, conduct professional project management, and make swifter progress in the inevitable human advance into space. The current unworkable human space settlement scenario involves moon visits and permanent bases, zero gravity trips to Mars, Mars visits and bases, all leading to extensive human settlements on the moon and Mars. This is unrealistic because the moon and Mars have less than Earth normal gravity and high radiation that can seriously damage human health. A better alternative would use rotating space colonies that produce Earth gravity and are radiation shielded. The attractive fantasy of reproducing terrestrial ecology in space should be replaced by the idea of building a closed system based on advancing technology such as artificial photosynthesis. Past mistaken projects include growing plants for food to replicate terrestrial food sources, recovering small amounts of water from difficult to process waste to achieve high system closure, and using newly designed, lighter, but unreliable hardware to reduce launch mass. The political process supporting the false assumptions, projects, and vision has deliberately prevented the usual systems engineering and cost-benefit analysis. We are going to do much better.

Harry W. Jones↗
NASA NTRS1979

Documentation of the analysis of the benefits and costs of aeronautical research and technology models, volume 1

The analysis of the benefits and costs of aeronautical research and technology (ABC-ART) models are documented. These models were developed by NASA for use in analyzing the economic feasibility of applying advanced aeronautical technology to future civil aircraft. The methodology is composed of three major modules: fleet accounting module, airframe manufacturing module, and air carrier module. The fleet accounting module is used to estimate the number of new aircraft required as a function of time to meet demand. This estimation is based primarily upon the expected retirement age of existing aircraft and the expected change in revenue passenger miles demanded. Fuel consumption estimates are also generated by this module. The airframe manufacturer module is used to analyze the feasibility of the manufacturing the new aircraft demanded. The module includes logic for production scheduling and estimating manufacturing costs. For a series of aircraft selling prices, a cash flow analysis is performed and a rate of return on investment is calculated. The air carrier module provides a tool for analyzing the financial feasibility of an airline purchasing and operating the new aircraft. This module includes a methodology for computing the air carrier direct and indirect operating costs, performing a cash flow analysis, and estimating the internal rate of return on investment for a set of aircraft purchase prices.

Bobick, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1972

General methodology: Costing, budgeting, and techniques for benefit-cost and cost-effectiveness analysis

The general concepts of costing, budgeting, and benefit-cost ratio and cost-effectiveness analysis are discussed. The three common methods of costing are presented. Budgeting distributions are discussed. The use of discounting procedures is outlined. The benefit-cost ratio and cost-effectiveness analysis is defined and their current application to NASA planning is pointed out. Specific practices and techniques are discussed, and actual costing and budgeting procedures are outlined. The recommended method of calculating benefit-cost ratios is described. A standardized method of cost-effectiveness analysis and long-range planning are also discussed.

Stretchberry, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Study for analysis of benefit versus cost of low thrust propulsion system

The benefits and costs associated with placing large space systems (LSS) in operational orbits were investigated, and a flexible computer model for analyzing these benefits and costs was developed. A mission model for LSS was identified that included both NASA/Commercial and DOD missions. This model included a total of 68 STS launches for the NASA/Commercial missions and 202 launches for the DOD missions. The mission catalog was of sufficient depth to define the structure type, mass and acceleration limits of each LSS. Conceptual primary propulsion stages (PPS) designs for orbital transfer were developed for three low thrust LO2/LH2 engines baselined for the study. The performance characteristics for each of these PPS was compared to the LSS mission catalog to create a mission capture. The costs involved in placing the LSS in their operational orbits were identified. The two primary costs were that of the PPS and of the STS launch. The cost of the LSS was not included as it is not a function of the PPS performance. The basic relationships and algorithms that could be used to describe the costs were established. The benefit criteria for the mission model were also defined. These included mission capture, reliability, technical risk, development time, and growth potential. Rating guidelines were established for each parameter. For flexibility, each parameter is assigned a weighting factor.

Hamlyn, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A method for the analysis of the benefits and costs for aeronautical research and technology

A relatively simple, consistent, and reasonable methodology for performing cost-benefit analyses which can be used to guide, justify, and explain investments in aeronautical research and technology is presented. The elements of this methodology (labeled ABC-ART for the Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of Aeronautical Research and Technology) include estimation of aircraft markets; manufacturer costs and return on investment versus aircraft price; airline costs and return on investment versus aircraft price and passenger yield; and potential system benefits--fuel savings, cost savings, and noise reduction. The application of this methodology is explained using the introduction of an advanced turboprop powered transport aircraft in the medium range market in 1978 as an example.

Williams, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Analysis of satellite servicing cost benefits

Under the auspices of NASA/JSC a methodology was developed to estimate the value of satellite servicing to the user community. Time and funding precluded the development of an exhaustive computer model; instead, the concept of Design Reference Missions was involved. In this approach, three space programs were analyzed for various levels of servicing. The programs selected fall into broad categories which include 80 to 90% of the missions planned between now and the end of the century. Of necessity, the extrapolation of the three program analyses to the user community as a whole depends on an average mission model and equivalency projections. The value of the estimated cost benefits based on this approach depends largely on how well the equivalency assumptions and the mission model match the real world. A careful definition of all assumptions permits the analysis to be extended to conditions beyond the scope of this study.

Builteman, H. O.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IAC Abstract for Orbital Debris Phase II Report

Orbital debris poses a growing risk for spacecraft operations. This risk has most often been measured by proxies, like the number of debris or expected collisions, but few have attempted quantify the consequences of orbital debris or the costs and benefits of different methods to address the problem. This has made it difficult to assess the trade-offs and relative value among proposed actions for the mitigation, tracking, and remediation of debris. In March of 2023, the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) took a step toward quantifying these relative values when we released Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation. Since that time, OTPS has continued to build on this work. We have increased the fidelity of our risk model. For example, we added an ensemble of risk models that use varying assumptions of debris populations and lethality, included debris as small as 1mm, and incorporated atmospheric drag to naturally deorbit debris. We have also expanded our cost-benefit calculations to include action that mitigate and track debris, both large and small. The analysis has several important findings regarding the conditions under which debris remediation is more cost-effective than mitigation and tracking, the value of increased shielding of spacecraft and faster timelines for post-mission disposal, and how changes in the portfolio have interdependent effects. This presentation summarizes the body of work, with a particular focus on the risks and benefits to the global spacecraft population.

orbital debris↗
NASA NTRS2000

Holter monitoring: are two days better than one?

The optimal duration of Holter monitoring (HM) to minimize costs and maximize yield is unknown. In a retrospective review of 164 patients referred to a tertiary care center for evaluation with 2 days of HM, we found that 48 hours was not cost effective when compared with the traditional 24-hour period.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS1998

Diagnostic yield and optimal duration of continuous-loop event monitoring for the diagnosis of palpitations. A cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND: Continuous-loop event recorders are widely used for the evaluation of palpitations, but the optimal duration of monitoring is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the yield, timing, and incremental cost-effectiveness of each week of event monitoring for palpitations. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PATIENTS: 105 consecutive outpatients referred for the placement of a continuous-loop event recorder for the evaluation of palpitations. MEASUREMENTS: Diagnostic yield, incremental cost, and cost-effectiveness for each week of monitoring. RESULTS: The diagnostic yield of continuous-loop event recorders was 1.04 diagnoses per patient in week 1, 0.15 diagnoses per patient in week 2, and 0.01 diagnoses per patient in week 3 and beyond. Over time, the cost-effectiveness ratio increased from $98 per new diagnosis in week 1 to $576 per new diagnosis in week 2 and $5832 per new diagnosis in week 3. CONCLUSIONS: In patients referred for evaluation of palpitations, the diagnostic yield of continuous-loop event recording decreases rapidly after 2 weeks of monitoring. A 2-week monitoring period is reasonably cost-effective for most patients and should be the standard period for continuous-loop event recording for the evaluation of palpitations.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that comprise ASAC. This report describes an Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model (CBM) that meets these requirements. The ASAC CBM is distinguished from many of the aviation cost-benefit models by its exclusive focus on commercial air carriers. The model considers such benefit categories as time and fuel savings, utilization opportunities, reliability and capacity enhancements, and safety and security improvements. The model distinguishes between benefits that are predictable and those that occur randomly. By making such a distinction, the model captures the ability of air carriers to reoptimize scheduling and crew assignments for predictable benefits. In addition, the model incorporates a life-cycle cost module for new technology, which applies the costs of nonrecurring acquisitions, recurring maintenance and operation, and training to each aircraft equipment type independently.

Gaier, Eric M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Atmospheric environmental implications of propulsion systems

Three independent studies have been conducted for assessing the impact of rocket launches on the earth's environment. These studies have addressed issues of acid rain in the troposphere, ozone depletion in the stratosphere, toxicity of chemical rocket exhaust products, and the potential impact on global warming from carbon dioxide emissions from rocket launches. Local, regional, and global impact assessments were examined and compared with both natural sources and anthropogenic sources of known atmospheric pollutants with the following conclusions: (1) Neither solid nor liquid rocket launches have a significant impact on the earth's global environment, and there is no real significant difference between the two. (2) Regional and local atmospheric impacts are more significant than global impacts, but quickly return to normal background conditions within a few hours after launch. And (3) vastly increased space launch activities equivalent to 50 U.S. Space Shuttles or 50 Russian Energia launches per year would not significantly impact these conclusions. However, these assessments, for the most part, are based upon homogeneous gas phase chemistry analysis; heterogeneous chemistry from exhaust particulates, such as aluminum oxide, ice contrails, soot, etc., and the influence of plume temperature and afterburning of fuel-rich exhaust products, need to be further addressed. It was the consensus of these studies that computer modeling of interactive plume chemistry with the atmosphere needs to be improved and computer models need to be verified with experimental data. Rocket exhaust plume chemistry can be modified with propellant reformulation and changes in operating conditions, but, based upon the current state of knowledge, it does not appear that significant environmental improvements from propellant formulation changes can be made or are warranted. Flight safety, reliability, and cost improvements are paramount for any new rocket system, and these important aspects cannot be compromised. A detailed environmental cost-benefit-risk analysis must be conducted before any new chemistry or changes in rocket operating conditions should be seriously considered for any future space or defense applications. This paper presents a summary of the results of environmental assessments contained in these independent studies.

Mcdonald, Allan J.↗