Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Cost prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

Pragmatic Stress Prediction on Additively Manufactured Coupons

Prediction of residual stresses from process parameters for additively manufactured large metal parts is computationally expensive. NASA is currently developing meter-scale parts with direct energy deposition. Practically, the predictive computational methods need to efficiently scale-up to meter-scale parts. Coupled thermal-mechanical multi-physics simulations have been developed with the pragmatic method using ABAQUS, COMSOL Multiphysics, ALE3D software. The residual stresses are a result of the manufacturing process which creates thermal cycling of the build layers. The pragmatic method uses lumped thermal layers for stress predictions to reduce computational costs. The stress predictions as well as deformations of the different codes are compared with each other and with ANSYS Additive using identical material models, boundary and initial conditions. The codes were used to simulate three different geometries: a thin wall, hollow cylinder and twin-cantilever part. The coupon parts were then manufactured with Inconel-625. The residual stresses in these parts were measured using X-ray diffraction as well as neutron beam diffraction at NIST. The stress measurements for the two technologies are compared. The pragmatic stress prediction method enabled predictions of the multi-centimeter scale parts using desktop computer workstations in only a few hours for each coupon. The results of the simulated stress predictions compared favorably with the measured stresses even though thermally lumped layers were employed. Finally, a two-meter scale nozzle was simulated using ANSYS Additive. The simulations were used to examine the build orientation trade-space with respect to resulting geometric deformation. The predicted deformations were compared to measurements of an actual subscale part manufactured with direct energy deposition.

pragmatic method↗

Gravity Well Commercial Economics Assessment: Potential Revenue and Cost: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

In the Gravity Well Revenue Study, we evaluate the potential revenue from energy storage using historical energy-only electricity prices, forward-looking projections of hourly electricity prices, and actual reported revenue. This analysis examines the impact of storage duration and round-trip efficiency, as well as the location of the storage, on storage revenue within the current and projected U.S. power system. We also investigated the impact of round-trip efficiency on storage revenue. We found that the relationship between storage revenue and round-trip efficiency is nonlinear. The value of improved round-trip efficiency declines as round-trip efficiency increases. In the Gravity Well Future Cost Study, we applied learning curves to predict the future cost trajectory of Gravity Wells (GrWs). Two types of analysis were implemented. The first was a bottom-up analysis that used historical learning rates for cost components, such as motors and gearboxes, and cost categories (e.g., engineering and design, etc.) to determine the learning-by-doing based single-factor learning curve. The single factor learning curve expresses the relationship between the cost of GrW and the number of units deployed (or the cumulative capacity). In the second analysis, we predicted future GrW costs via a top-down approach. This approach accounts for historical cost trends in other renewable energy and storage technologies, which have similarities with GrWs. Using a multifactor learning curve that accounts for both intrinsic (cumulative capacity) and extrinsic (the elasticity in the price of steel) factors, we estimated the future cost of GrWs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA's X-Plane Database and Parametric Cost Model v 2.0

The NASA Armstrong Cost Engineering Team with technical assistance from NASA HQ (SID)has gone through the full process in developing new CERs from Version #1 to Version #2 CERs. We took a step backward and reexamined all of the data collected, such as dependent and independent variables, cost, dry weight, length, wingspan, manned versus unmanned, altitude, Mach number, thrust, and skin. We used a well- known statistical analysis tool called CO$TAT instead of using "R" multiple linear or the "Regression" tool found in Microsoft Excel(TradeMark). We setup an "array of data" by adding 21" dummy variables;" we analyzed the standard error (SE) and then determined the "best fit." We have parametrically priced-out several future X-planes and compared our results to those of other resources. More work needs to be done in getting "accurate and traceable cost data" from historical X-plane records!

life cycle cost↗

Ramjet cost estimating handbook

The subject program was conducted for the purpose of generating cost information on ramjet engines and developing a methodology that could be employed to accurately predict production costs ramjet engines. The methodology addresses many different ramjet types, sizes and production quantities. The methodology determines the cost of individual modules of ramjet assemblies based on similarity of the modules to baseline components that are identified in a cost handbook. (There are typically around 20 basic components of a given ramjet to be costed.) The total cost of the engine is a summation of all the appropriate cost elements. A significant accomplishment of the program was the development of a large cost data base on many different configurations, materials of construction and variations in manufacturing processes. This data base should provide a good foundation on which to build other cost data as it becomes available.

Emmons, H. T.↗

Toward ultra-efficient high-fidelity predictions of wind turbine wakes: Augmenting the accuracy of engineering models with machine learning

This study proposes a novel machine learning (ML) methodology for the efficient and cost-effective prediction of high-fidelity three-dimensional velocity fields in the wake of utility-scale turbines. The model consists of an autoencoder convolutional neural network with U-Net skipped connections, fine-tuned using high-fidelity data from large-eddy simulations (LES). The trained model takes the low-fidelity velocity field cost-effectively generated from the analytical engineering wake model as input and produces the high-fidelity velocity fields. The accuracy of the proposed ML model is demonstrated in a utility-scale wind farm for which datasets of wake flow fields were previously generated using LES under various wind speeds, wind directions, and yaw angles. Comparing the ML model results with those of LES, the ML model was shown to reduce the error in the prediction from 20% obtained from the Gauss Curl hybrid (GCH) model to less than 5%. In addition, the ML model captured the non-symmetric wake deflection observed for opposing yaw angles for wake steering cases, demonstrating a greater accuracy than the GCH model. The computational cost of the ML model is on par with that of the analytical wake model while generating numerical outcomes nearly as accurate as those of the high-fidelity LES.

Mechanics↗

First principles reactive simulation for equation of state prediction

The high cost of density functional theory (DFT) has hitherto limited the ab initio prediction of the equation of state (EOS). In this article, we employ a combination of large scale computing, advanced simulation techniques, and smart data science strategies to provide an unprecedented ab initio performance analysis of the high explosive pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). Comparison to both experiment and thermochemical predictions reveals important quantitative limitations of DFT for EOS prediction and thus the assessment of high explosives. In particular, we find that DFT predicts the energy of PETN detonation products to be systematically too high relative to the unreacted neat crystalline material, resulting in an underprediction of the detonation velocity, pressure, and temperature at the Chapman–Jouguet state. The energetic bias can be partially accounted for by high-level electronic structure calculations of the product molecules. Furthermore we demonstrate a modeling strategy for mapping chemical composition across a wide parameter space with limited numerical data, the results of which suggest additional molecular species to consider in thermochemical modeling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Methodology for assessing the maximum potential impact of separations opportunities in industrial processes

Separation technologies currently used in U.S. manufacturing industries are estimated to account for more than 20% of plant energy consumption. However, accurately determining the impact of new separation technology solutions can sometimes be difficult, especially when evaluating a slate of new candidate separation technologies, each of which has its own separation performance, energy demand, and capital cost. In these cases, a typical approach is to assess each new separation technology by collecting performance and cost information and then using that information to develop a techno-economic analysis to identify overall benefits. While this approach is thorough, it can be time consuming and can hinder reaching a critical understanding of the potential of a given separation challenge, especially when there is no known solution. To address these issues, we developed an assessment methodology, using industrial screening processes, that can be used to better understand the potential impacts of addressing a given separation challenge. This paper presents an overview of our separation challenge stream assessment methodology. The methodology involves defining an “ideal” separator and deriving the associated minimum separation energy. The “ideal” separator represents the most optimistic outlook of a given opportunity so the maximum impact from existing and not-yet-developed solutions can be assessed. Using established biorefinery models, we applied the methodology to 10 different separation challenge streams from two different biomass conversion platforms to identify the type of information that can be obtained. Three of the ten challenge streams assessed had maximum possible cost savings predictions >20%, and associated reductions in process energy carbon intensity ranging from 0 to 54%. Two streams had cost and energy savings potential that were < 5%. Some of the opportunity drivers from the various assessments include higher product yields, reduction or elimination of downstream equipment, new co-products, and cost savings associated with raw materials and energy consumption. The information from these assessments can help guide the selection or development of new separation technology solutions based on the various potential factors that drive the projected benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Computational techniques for design optimization of thermal protection systems for the space shuttle vehicle. Volume 1: Final report

Computational techniques were developed and assimilated for the design optimization. The resulting computer program was then used to perform initial optimization and sensitivity studies on a typical thermal protection system (TPS) to demonstrate its application to the space shuttle TPS design. The program was developed in Fortran IV for the CDC 6400 but was subsequently converted to the Fortran V language to be used on the Univac 1108. The program allows for improvement and update of the performance prediction techniques. The program logic involves subroutines which handle the following basic functions: (1) a driver which calls for input, output, and communication between program and user and between the subroutines themselves; (2) thermodynamic analysis; (3) thermal stress analysis; (4) acoustic fatigue analysis; and (5) weights/cost analysis. In addition, a system total cost is predicted based on system weight and historical cost data of similar systems. Two basic types of input are provided, both of which are based on trajectory data. These are vehicle attitude (altitude, velocity, and angles of attack and sideslip), for external heat and pressure loads calculation, and heating rates and pressure loads as a function of time.

Source record↗

Economics of liquid hydrogen from water electrolysis

An economical model for preliminary analysis of LH2 cost from water electrolysis is presented. The model is based on data from vendors and open literature, and is suitable for computer analysis of different scenarios for 'directional' purposes. Cost data associated with a production rate of 10,886 kg/day are presented. With minimum modification, the model can also be used to predict LH2 cost from any electrolyzer once the electrolyzer's cost data are available.

Lin, F. N.↗

A six degree of freedom, plume-fuel optimal trajectory planner for spacecraft proximity operations using an A* node search

Spacecraft proximity operations are complicated by the fact that exhaust plume impingement from the reaction control jets of space vehicles can cause structural damage, contamination of sensitive arrays and instruments, or attitude misalignment during docking. The occurrence and effect of jet plume impingement can be reduced by planning approach trajectories with plume effects considered. An A* node search is used to find plume-fuel optimal trajectories through a discretized six dimensional attitude-translation space. A plume cost function which approximates jet plume isopressure envelopes is presented. The function is then applied to find relative costs for predictable 'trajectory altering' firings and unpredictable 'deadbanding' firings. Trajectory altering firings are calculated by running the spacecraft jet selection algorithm and summing the cost contribution from each jet fired. A 'deadbanding effects' function is defined and integrated to determine the potential for deadbanding impingement along candidate trajectories. Plume costs are weighed against fuel costs in finding the optimal solution. A* convergence speed is improved by solving approach trajectory problems in reverse time. Results are obtained on a high fidelity space shuttle/space station simulation. Trajectory following is accomplished by a six degree of freedom autopilot. Trajectories planned with, and without, plume costs are compared in terms of force applied to the target structure.

Jackson, Mark Charles↗

Orthorhombic Structures as Inorganic Halide Perovskite Models for High-Throughput DFT Investigations

Although high-symmetry Pm-3m space group cubic models are computationally efficient for high-throughput density functional theory (DFT) calculations of inorganic ternary (ABX 3 ) halide perovskites (HPs), they frequently predict band gaps (E g ) that disagree with experiment. Conversely, while low-symmetry cubic polymorphous networks (PN) comprised of 160 to 320 atoms incur significantly greater computational cost, they predict E g ’s that are more closely aligned with experiment. Here, in this study, we compare the DFT total energies and E g ’s predicted by four high-symmetry structure models (Pnma orthorhombic, R3m trigonal, P4/mbm tetragonal, and Pm-3m cubic) to cubic PNs for 5 experimentally characterized ternary HPs and find that the orthorhombic model computes Eg’s with the smallest MAD of 0.23 eV relative to the PNs. Pair distribution functions and DFT-computed total energies show that octahedral tilting, which is present in the 20-atom orthorhombic and 160-atom cubic PN models but not in the 5-atom cubic models, stabilizes all 5 compositions in our benchmarking set. We also find that imposing PN constraints when generating and optimizing these orthorhombic structures by fixing the unit cell lattice vectors and displacing the atoms prior to ionic relaxation with DFT, which we call the orthorhombic surrogate model (OSM), lowers the MAD of E g predictions to 0.09 eV. Our OSM predicts the PN band gaps of an additional 95 theoretical inorganic ternary HPs with MAD of 0.08 eV, supporting its usage in high-throughput DFT investigations to closely estimate PN band gaps with much less computational expense.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Phase 1 of the First Solar Small Power System Experiment (experimental System No. 1). Volume 3: Appendix E - N

The design of a solar electric power plant for a small community is reported. Topics covered include: (1) control configurations and interface requirements for the baseline power system; (2) annual small power system output; (3) energy requirements for operation of the collectors and control building; (4) life cycle costs and reliability predictions; (5) thermal conductivities and costs of receiver insulation materials; (6) transient thermal modelling for the baseline receiver/thermal transport system under normal and inclement operating conditions; (7) high temperature use of sodium; (8) shading in a field of parabolic collectors; and (9) buffer storage materials.

Clark, T. B.↗

NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM): Capabilities and Results

NAFCOM is a parametric estimating tool for space hardware. Uses cost estimating relationships (CERs) which correlate historical costs to mission characteristics to predict new project costs. It is based on historical NASA and Air Force space projects. It is intended to be used in the very early phases of a development project. NAFCOM can be used at the subsystem or component levels and estimates development and production costs. NAFCOM is applicable to various types of missions (crewed spacecraft, uncrewed spacecraft, and launch vehicles). There are two versions of the model: a government version that is restricted and a contractor releasable version.

McAfee, Julie↗

Attack Surface Analysis of the Digital Twins interface with Advanced Sensor and Instrumentation Interfaces: Cyber Threat Assessment and Attack Demonstration for Digital Twins in Advanced Reactor Architectures

A digital twin is a virtual representation of a physical system or object using real-time data that can predict and analyze how the system or object performs. This relatively new technology can be applied to the field of nuclear power generation, to aid in the design and development of new nuclear power plants and reduce operation costs using predictive maintenance and other data analytical methods. While there are already companies utilizing simulation software to train operators and technicians in the nuclear industry, some are now transitioning to utilizing their existing technology, software, and methods to develop digital twin solutions for the next generation of nuclear power plants, offering their services to utilities and government organizations around the world.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Assessment of Cloud-Based Applications Enabling a Scalable Risk-Informed Predictive Maintenance Strategy Across the Nuclear Fleet

The current light water reactor fleet uses time-based or failure-based maintenance strategies to achieve high-capacity factors. But to make nuclear more competitive in the energy market, these reactors could utilize emerging technologies in terms of artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing to enable a cost-effective, predictive maintenance strategy. This report examines the feasibility of cloud computing for the nuclear industry’s needs in terms of the cloud’s computing capabilities, feasibility, and regulatory concerns. The technical viability of cloud computing was analyzed using one year worth of data from a boiling water reactor’s safety relief valve. Models were hosted on a local desktop, Idaho National Laboratory’s high-performance computer, and Microsoft Azure. Data was loaded, processed, and two types of models were trained in an A/B fashion. Based on the speed at which these actions were completed, it was used to determined that cloud computing has adequate computing resources. Additionally, the computing power can scale with the demanded load. To enable cloud computing in the existing fleet, additional sensors, networks, and other requirements must be implemented to ensure a smooth transition from current maintenance strategies. However, there is a benefit as the plant no longer needs manage their own servers, software, cybersecurity, and IT support staff. Many of these features can be offloaded on to the cloud provider. A comprehensive analysis was completed that showed the current annual cost of operating is more expensive than using cloud computing resources. Lastly, the regulatory framework does not explicitly address AI or autonomous control. Currently, the NRC and other regulatory bodies are evaluating providing guidance to address gaps rather than new regulations to address the use of AI and ML. But since many of the AI applications are focused on non-safety related applications, such as balance-of-plant components, they will likely have little or no regulatory restrictions or necessary approvals. Demonstrating how AI can improve maintenance and operation of these non-safety related systems seems like the likely path forward for implementing AI and cloud computing resources inside nuclear power plants (NPPs).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Impact of Balance Of System (BOS) costs on photovoltaic power systems

The Department of Energy has developed a program to effect a large reduction in the price of photovoltaic modules, with significant progress already achieved toward the 1986 goal of 50 cents/watt (1975 dollars). Remaining elements of a P/V power system (structure, battery storage, regulation, control, and wiring) are also significant cost items. The costs of these remaining elements are commonly referred to as Balance-of-System (BOS) costs. The BOS costs are less well defined and documented than module costs. The Lewis Research Center (LeRC) in 1976/77 and with two village power experiments that will be installed in 1978. The costs were divided into five categories and analyzed. A regression analysis was performed to determine correlations of BOS Costs per peak watt, with power size for these photovoltaic systems. The statistical relationship may be used for flat-plate, DC systems ranging from 100 to 4,000 peak watts. A survey of suppliers was conducted for comparison with the predicted BOS cost relationship.

Hein, G. F.↗

Conceptual design of an advanced Stirling conversion system for terrestrial power generation

A free piston Stirling engine coupled to an electric generator or alternator with a nominal kWe power output absorbing thermal energy from a nominal 100 square meter parabolic solar collector and supplying electric power to a utility grid was identified. The results of the conceptual design study of an Advanced Stirling Conversion System (ASCS) were documented. The objectives are as follows: define the ASCS configuration; provide a manufacturability and cost evaluation; predict ASCS performance over the range of solar input required to produce power; estimate system and major component weights; define engine and electrical power condidtioning control requirements; and define key technology needs not ready by the late 1980s in meeting efficiency, life, cost, and with goalds for the ASCS.

Source record↗

A prediction model to forecast the cost impact from a break in the production schedule

The losses which are experienced after a break or stoppage in sequence of a production cycle portends an extremely complex situation and involves numerous variables, some of uncertain quantity and quality. There are no discrete formulas to define the losses during a gap in production. The techniques which are employed are therefore related to a prediction or forecast of the losses that take place, based on the conditions which exist in the production environment. Such parameters as learning curve slope, number of predecessor units, and length of time the production sequence is halted are utilized in formulating a prediction model. The pertinent current publications related to this subject are few in number, but are reviewed to provide an understanding of the problem. Example problems are illustrated together with appropriate trend curves to show the approach. Solved problems are also given to show the application of the models to actual cases or production breaks in the real world.

Delionback, L. M.↗