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NASA NTRS2015

Techniques for Conducting Effective Concept Design and Design-to-Cost Trade Studies

Concept design plays a central role in project success as its product effectively locks the majority of system life cycle cost. Such extraordinary leverage presents a business case for conducting concept design in a credible fashion, particularly for first-of-a-kind systems that advance the state of the art and that have high design uncertainty. A key challenge, however, is to know when credible design convergence has been achieved in such systems. Using a space system example, this paper characterizes the level of convergence needed for concept design in the context of technical and programmatic resource margins available in preliminary design and highlights the importance of design and cost evaluation learning curves in determining credible convergence. It also provides techniques for selecting trade study cases that promote objective concept evaluation, help reveal unknowns, and expedite convergence within the trade space and conveys general practices for conducting effective concept design-to-cost studies.

Design To Cost↗

NASA NTRS2015

Techniques for Conducting Effective Concept Design and Design-to-Cost Trade Studies

Trade Studies↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6.

The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions 'How does the Earth system respond to forcing?' and 'What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?' and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity. A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO2 forcing and sea surface warming? CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. 1. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations? 2. What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models? 3. Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds? 4. How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?

carbon dioxide↗

NASA NTRS2021

Population Properties of Compact Objects from the Second LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog

We report on the population of 47 compact binary mergers detected with a false-alarm rate of <1yr^(−1) in the second LIGO–Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog. We observe several characteristics of the merging binary black hole (BBH) population not discernible until now. First, the primary mass spectrum contains structure beyond a power law with a sharp high-mass cutoff; it is more consistent with a broken power law with a break at 39.7^(+20.3)(-9.1)M or a power law with a Gaussian feature peaking at 33.1^(+4.0)(-5.6)M (90% credible interval). While the primary mass distribution must extend to ~65M or beyond, only 2.9^(+3.5)(-1.7)M% of systems have primary masses greater than 45M. Second, we find that a fraction of BBH systems have component spins misaligned with the orbital angular momentum, giving rise to precession of the orbital plane. Moreover, 12% to 44% of BBH systems have spins tilted by more than 90°, giving rise to a negative effective inspiral spin parameter, χeff. Under the assumption that such systems can only be formed by dynamical interactions, we infer that between 25% and 93% of BBHs with nonvanishing |χeff| > 0.01 are dynamically assembled. Third, we estimate merger rates, finding RBBH = 23.9^(+14.3)(-8.6) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for BBHs and RBNS = 320^(+490)(-240) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for binary neutron stars. We find that the BBH rate likely increases with redshift (85% credibility) but not faster than the star formation rate (86% credibility). Additionally, we examine recent exceptional events in the context of our population models, finding that the asymmetric masses of GW190412 and the high component masses of GW190521 are consistent with our models, but the low secondary mass of GW190814 makes it an outlier.

R Abbott↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning‐Based Earth System Models

Abstract Machine learning (ML) is a revolutionary technology with demonstrable applications across multiple disciplines. Within the Earth science community, ML has been most visible for weather forecasting, producing forecasts that rival modern physics‐based models. Given the importance of deepening our understanding and improving predictions of the Earth system on all time scales, efforts are now underway to develop Earth‐system models (ESMs) capable of representing all components of the coupled Earth system (or their aggregated behavior) and their response to external changes over long timescales. Building trust in ESMs is a much more difficult problem than for weather forecast models, not least because the model must represent the alternate (e.g., future or paleoclimatic) coupled states of the system for which there are no direct observations. Given that the physical principles that enable predictions about the response of the Earth system are often not explicitly coded in these ML‐based models, demonstrating the credibility of ML‐based ESMs thus requires us to build evidence of their consistency with the physical system. To this end, this paper puts forward five recommendations to enhance comprehensive, standardized, and independent evaluation of ML‐based ESMs to strengthen their credibility and promote their wider use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reviving sub-keV warm dark matter: a UVLF-based analysis

Thermal warm dark matter (WDM) particles with m WDM ≤ 1 keV are ruled out at more than 4σ by multiple observational probes, owing to the strong suppression of small-scale structure induced by early-time free-streaming. Recently, it was highlighted that a small admixture of ∼ 1% (f CDM ∼ 0.01) cold dark matter (CDM) endowed with a blue-tilted isocurvature spectrum could offset the WDM-induced suppression and relax the WDM mass bound by a factor of 𝒪(10). If viable, this “warm + cold-isocurvature” scenario would allow sub-keV WDM particles to constitute nearly the full dark matter abundance while potentially alleviating some small-scale tensions. In this work, we test this mechanism by constraining the WDM mass mWDM while marginalizing over CDM isocurvature parameters. We combine ultraviolet luminosity function measurements from the Hubble Space Telescope and James Webb Space Telescope over redshift 4 ≤ z ≤ 11 with CMB, BAO, and SNe data. For a pure WDM model, our joint analysis yields a lower bound m WDM > 1.8 keV (95% credible intervals). When CDM isocurvature is introduced at f CDM = 0.01, the limit relaxes to m WDM > 0.27 keV (95% credible intervals), reflecting a shallow degeneracy in which blue-tilted isocurvature fluctuations partially compensate for WDM suppression. These results provide new constraints on thermal WDM in the presence of CDM isocurvature fluctuations and quantify the extent to which such fluctuations can mask the small-scale signatures of light relics.

cosmological parameters from CMBR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal stress in degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Understanding thermal stress in tropical forests has taken on new urgency in light of accelerating climate change and expansion of deforestation and forest degradation. Degraded tropical forests in particular may be approaching critical temperature thresholds even more rapidly than intact forests, with implications for tree survival and ecosystem recovery. We investigate thermal stress in degraded tropical forests within the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation. Using land surface temperature data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the international Space Station (ECOSTRESS), we compared canopy temperatures of intact, selectively logged, and burned forests in Feliz Natal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Upper canopy temperatures in previously burned forests were 4.1% higher (mean = 36.5 °C) and 50.9% more variable compared to intact and logged forests, which showed remarkably similar temperature distributions (means of 34.9 °C and 35.1 °C, respectively). Modeled leaf temperature distributions based on canopy temperature measurements from one of the warmest days in a 2 year dry season record indicated that 87% of leaves in the warmest burned forest patches exceeded the temperature threshold where respiration surpasses photosynthesis, compared to approximately 72%–74% in intact and logged forests, respectively, in the same time period. After controlling for environmental factors, burned forests were predicted to be 2.6 °C warmer on average [1.39 °C–3.96 °C, 95% credible interval] than intact forests across a 5–40 m canopy height range. Burned forests showed modest thermal recovery over time, with temperatures decreasing by approximately 1.2 °C over a 30 year recovery period. In contrast, logged forests showed minimal thermal differences from intact forests (−0.353 on average, [−1.125–0.274, 95% credible interval]) and negligible change (0.15 °C) over the same timeframe. While the absolute probabilities of exceeding damaging thermal thresholds remain low across all forest types under current climate conditions, the probability of leaves exceeding temperatures that cause permanent leaf damage was ten times higher in burned forests, with implications for the future of burned forest regeneration in water-limited regions of the Amazon basin. In particular, the combination of higher mean temperatures, greater temperature variability, and more frequent exposure to damaging thermal thresholds implies that burned tropical forests will experience substantially higher mortality rates and slower biomass recovery compared to intact and selectively logged forests, especially in water-limited regions where trees cannot rely on evaporative cooling to moderate canopy temperatures.

Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation↗

DOE OSTI2025

It is not σ 8 : constraining the non-linear matter power spectrum with the Dark Energy Survey Year-5 supernova sample

The weak gravitational lensing magnification of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is sensitive to the matter power spectrum on scales $k\gt 1 h$ Mpc$^{-1}$, making it unwise to interpret SNe Ia lensing in terms of power on linear scales. We compute the probability density function of SNe Ia magnification as a function of standard cosmological parameters, plus an empirical parameter $A_{\rm mod}$ which describes the suppression or enhancement of matter power on non-linear scales compared to a cold dark matter only model. While baryons are expected to enhance power on the scales relevant to SN Ia lensing, other physics such as neutrino masses or non-standard dark matter may suppress power. Using the Dark Energy Survey Year-5 sample, we find $A_{\rm mod} = 0.77^{+0.69}_{-0.40}$ (68 per cent credible interval around the median). Although the median is consistent with unity there are hints of power suppression, with $A_{\rm mod} \lt 1.09$ at 68 per cent credibility.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model-agnostic likelihood for the reinterpretation of the 𝐵 + → 𝐾 + ⁢$𝑣\bar{𝑣}$ measurement at Belle II

We recently measured the branching fraction of the 𝐵 + → 𝐾 + ⁢$𝑣\bar{𝑣}$ decay using 362 fb −1 of on-resonance 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − collision data under the assumption of Standard Model kinematics, providing the first evidence for this decay. To facilitate future reinterpretations and maximize the scientific impact of this measurement, we publicly release the full analysis likelihood along with all necessary material required for reinterpretation under arbitrary theoretical models sensitive to this measurement. In this work, we demonstrate how the measurement can be reinterpreted within the framework of the weak effective theory. Using a kinematic reweighting technique in combination with the published likelihood, we derive marginal posterior distributions for the Wilson coefficients, construct credible intervals, and assess the goodness of fit to the Belle II data. For the weak effective theory Wilson coefficients, the posterior mode of the magnitudes |𝐶 VL +𝐶 VR |, |𝐶 SL +𝐶 SR |, and |𝐶 TL | corresponds to the point (11.3, 0.0, 8.2). The respective 95% credible intervals are [1.9, 16.2], [0.0, 15.4], and [0.0, 11.2].

bottom quark↗

DOE OSTI2024

Method for Real-Time Salt Aerosol Concentration and Size Measurements for Molten Salt Reactor Safety Assessments

Licensing a new nuclear reactor involves evaluating credible accident scenarios by developing models that simulate accident progression to predict possible outcomes and their impact on safety. The formation of radionuclide-bearing aerosols in the respirable size range can significantly affect dose consequence and threaten human health and is therefore a focus of nuclear reactor safety assessments. Recent reviews of the literature identified a lack of existing experimental data describing the mechanisms of formation and properties (size, concentration, and composition) of radionuclide-bearing aerosols that may be produced from molten salt reactor (MSR) facilities during postulated accident scenarios. Experiments on aerosol formation from molten salt systems are a high priority need that will support MSR licensing by indicating the radiological consequences of aerosol formation and providing the data required for model development and validation. The evolving conditions that occur during a MSR accident, such as a spill of molten fuel salt, may affect aerosol formation mechanisms and aerosol properties over time. There is a need to conduct experiments that simulate credible MSR accidents in a laboratory to generate aerosols with realistic characteristics and behaviors and a need to measure these aerosols in real time under accident-relevant conditions. This report describes the development of a method that can be used to quantify the size and concentration of salt aerosol particles that form from molten salt systems in real time. This method will be employed in future integral effects tests that are conducted at an engineering scale to simulate realistic MSR accidents and in future separate effects tests that will provide mechanistic insight into aerosol formation and properties to support process model development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reassessing Double-Ended Guillotine Break Requirements: Evidence-Based Analysis of Regulatory Assumptions After Five Decades of Nuclear Operation

After five decades of nuclear power operation encompassing more than 20,000 reactor-years across 35 countries and 647 reactors, zero double-ended guillotine breaks (DEGBs) have been documented in commercial reactor coolant systems—despite DEGB being the fundamental design-basis assumption driving Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) sizing, structural protection requirements, and containment design specifications. This report examines the basis for DEGB requirements in nuclear power plant design. The DEGB postulate assumes the instantaneous, complete circumferential severance of the largest diameter pipes in reactor coolant systems, driving major design requirements under 10 Code of Federal Regulations 50.46, General Design Criterion 4 and containment design specifications. The United States (4,880 reactor-years) and France (2,505 reactor-years) contribute the largest operational datasets. Probabilistic assessments estimate direct DEGB occurrence probabilities with extremely low event frequencies, far below the 10-5/reactor-year thresholds typically used to define non-credible events in nuclear-safety analyses; i.e., events with probability this low fall into beyond-design-basis events. Current material-science knowledge demonstrates that the ductile steel materials used in nuclear piping systems exhibit stable crack-growth behavior fundamentally incompatible with instantaneous severance. International regulatory experience, particularly Germany’s comprehensive break-preclusion implementation, and successful leak-before-break (LBB) applications in almost all of U.S. pressurized water reactor units validate that alternatives can maintain safety performance while reducing economic burden. Current DEGB protection systems impose estimated lifetime costs of hundreds of millions of dollars per unit, over the life of a plant across the nuclear industry (including ongoing costs), representing substantial resource allocation toward scenarios with extremely low probability. Although this report acknowledges uncertainties regarding long-term aging effects, potential synergistic degradation mechanisms, and site-specific seismic considerations that warrant continued evaluation as regulatory policy evolves, there remains no documented evidence that a DEGB has occurred as a consequence of the conditions or mechanisms described in this report. This report acknowledges the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) recent efforts—outlined in the draft Interim Staff Guidance (ISG) NRC-DSS-ISG-2025-XX (“Treatment of Certain Loss-of-Coolant Accident Locations as Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents Draft Interim Staff Guidance”)—to reduce overly conservative requirements for large-break loss of coolant accidents through technical justifications and exemptions. However, extensive operating experience and validated methodologies—such as LBB and in-service inspection programs—demonstrate that the probability of a DEGB in reactor coolant-loop piping is extremely low, even under seismic conditions. The authors and reviewers of this report recommend that DEGB be removed as a design-basis event through formal rulemaking, rather than case-by-case exemptions, to better reflect credible failure modes, align with current data, and align with modern, risk-informed safety analysis.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A More Precise Measurement of the Radius of PSR J0740+6620 Using Updated NICER Data

PSR J0740+6620 is the neutron star with the highest precisely determined mass, inferred from radio observations to be 2.08 ± 0.07 M ⊙ . Measurements of its radius therefore hold promise to constrain the properties of the cold, catalyzed, high-density matter in neutron star cores. Previously, Miller et al. and Riley et al. reported measurements of the radius of PSR J0740+6620 based on Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) observations accumulated through 2020 April 17, and an exploratory analysis utilizing NICER background estimates and a data set accumulated through 2021 December 28 was presented in Salmi et al. Here we report an updated radius measurement, derived by fitting models of X-ray emission from the neutron star surface to NICER data accumulated through 2022 April 21, totaling ~1.1 Ms additional exposure compared to the data set analyzed in Miller et al. and Riley et al., and to data from XMM-Newton observations. We find that the equatorial circumferential radius of PSR J0740+6620 is ${12.92}_{-1.13}^{+2.09}$ km (68% credibility), a fractional uncertainty ~83% the width of that reported in Miller et al., in line with statistical expectations given the additional data. If we were to require the radius to be less than 16 km, as was done in Salmi et al., then our 68% credible region would become $R={12.76}_{-1.02}^{+1.49}$ km, which is close to the headline result of Salmi et al. Our updated measurements, along with other laboratory and astrophysical constraints, imply a slightly softer equation of state than that inferred from our previous measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1984

Reliability and maintainability assessment factors for reliable fault-tolerant systems

A long term goal of the NASA Langley Research Center is the development of a reliability assessment methodology of sufficient power to enable the credible comparison of the stochastic attributes of one ultrareliable system design against others. This methodology, developed over a 10 year period, is a combined analytic and simulative technique. An analytic component is the Computer Aided Reliability Estimation capability, third generation, or simply CARE III. A simulative component is the Gate Logic Software Simulator capability, or GLOSS. The numerous factors that potentially have a degrading effect on system reliability and the ways in which these factors that are peculiar to highly reliable fault tolerant systems are accounted for in credible reliability assessments. Also presented are the modeling difficulties that result from their inclusion and the ways in which CARE III and GLOSS mitigate the intractability of the heretofore unworkable mathematics.

Bavuso, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Fusion energy from the Moon for the twenty-first century

It is shown in this paper that the D-He-3 fusion fuel cycle is not only credible from a physics standpoint, but that its breakeven and ignition characteristics could be developed on roughly the same time schedule as the DT cycle. It was also shown that the extremely low fraction of power in neutrons, the lack of significant radioactivity in the reactants, and the potential for very high conversion efficiencies, can result in definite advantages for the D-He-3 cycle with respect to DT fusion and fission reactors in the twenty-first century. More specifically, the D-He-3 cycle can accomplish the following: (1) eliminate the need for deep geologic waste burial facilities and the wastes can qualify for Class A, near-surface land burial; (2) allow 'inherently safe' reactors to be built that, under the worst conceivable accident, cannot cause a civilian fatality or result in a significant (greater than 100 mrem) exposure to a member of the public; (3) reduce the radiation damage levels to a point where no scheduled replacement of reactor structural components is required, i.e., full reactor lifetimes (approximately 30 FPY) can be credibly claimed; (4) increase the reliability and availability of fusion reactors compared to DT systems because of the greatly reduced radioactivity, the low neutron damage, and the elimination of T breeding; and (5) greatly reduce the capital costs of fusion power plants (compared to DT systems) by as much as 50 percent and present the potential for a significant reduction on the COE. The concepts presented in this paper tie together two of the most ambitious high-technology endeavors of the twentieth century: the development of controlled thermonuclear fusion for civilian power applications and the utilization of outer space for the benefit of mankind on Earth.

Kulcinski, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Smoke detection in low-G fires

Fires in spacecraft are considered a credible risk. To respond to this risk, NASA flew fire detectors on Skylab and the Space Shuttle (STS) and included them in the design for International Space Station Alpha (ISSA). In previous missions (Mercury, Gemini and Apollo), the crew quarters were so cramped that it was not considered credible that the astronauts could fail to observe a fire. The Skylab nodule included approximately 20 UV fire detectors. The space shuttle has 9 ionization detectors in the mid deck and flight deck and Spacelab has six additional ionization detectors. The planned detectors for ISSA are laser-diode, forward-scattering, smoke or particulate detectors. Current plans for the ISSA call for two detectors in the open area of the module and detectors in racks that have both cooling air flow and electrical power. Due to the complete absence of data concerning the nature of particulate and radiant emission from low-g fires, all three of these detector systems were designed based upon 1-g test data. As planned mission durations and complexity increase and the volume of spacecraft increases, the need for and importance of effective, crew independent, fire detection grows significantly. This requires more knowledge concerning low-gravity fires and how they might be detected. To date, no combustion-generated particulate samples have been collected for well-developed microgravity flames. All of the extant data come from drop tower tests and therefore only correspond to the early stages of a fire. The fuel sources were restricted to laminar gas-jet diffusion flames and rapidly overheated wire insulation. These gas-jet drop tower tests indicate, through thermophoretic sampling, that soot primaries and aggregates (groups of primary particles) in micro-g may be significantly larger than those in normal-g (ng). This raises new scientific questions about soot processes as well as practical issues for particulate detection/alarm threshold levels used in on-orbit smoke detectors. Furthermore, it is widely speculated but unverified that the aggregates will grow to very large scales in a microgravity fire of longer duration than available on the ground. Preliminary tests in the 2.2 second drop tower suggest that particulate generated by overheated wire insulation will also be larger in microgravity than in normal gravity. TEM grids downstream of the fire region in the WIF experiment as well as visual observation of long string-like aggregates, further confirm this suggestion. The combined impact of these limited results and theoretical predictions is that direct knowledge of low-g combustion particulate as opposed to extrapolation from 1-g data is needed for a more confident design of smoke detectors for spacecraft.

Urban, David L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Estimating the Cost of NASA's Space Launch Initiative: How SLI Cost Stack Up Against the Shuttle

NASA is planning to replace the Space Shuttle with a new completely reusable Second Generation Launch System by approximately 2012. Numerous contracted and NASA in-house Space Transportation Architecture Studies and various technology maturation activities are proceeding and have resulted in scores of competing architecture configurations being proposed. Life cycle cost is a key discriminator between all these various concepts. However, the one obvious analogy for costing purposes remains the current Shuttle system. Are there credible reasons to believe that a second generation reusable launch system can be accomplished at less cost than the Shuttle? The need for a credible answer to this question is critical. This paper reviews the cost estimating approaches being used by the contractors and the government estimators to address this issue and explores the rationale behind the numbers.

Hamaker, Joseph H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

GRC Payload Hazard Assessment: Supporting the STS-107 Accident Investigation

A hazard assessment was conducted on the GRC managed payloads in support of a NASA Headquarters Code Q request to examine STS-107 payloads and determine if they were credible contributors to the Columbia accident. This assessment utilized each payload's Final Flight Safety Data Package for hazard identification. An applicability assessment was performed and most of the hazards were eliminated because they dealt with payload operations or crew interactions. A Fault Tree was developed for all the hazards deemed applicable and the safety verification documentation was reviewed for these applicable hazards. At the completion of this hazard assessment, it was concluded that none of the GRC managed payloads were credible contributors to the Columbia accident.

Schoren, William R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Breakthrough Propulsion Physics Project: Project Management Methods

To leap past the limitations of existing propulsion, the NASA Breakthrough Propulsion Physics (BPP) Project seeks further advancements in physics from which new propulsion methods can eventually be derived. Three visionary breakthroughs are sought: (1) propulsion that requires no propellant, (2) propulsion that circumvents existing speed limits, and (3) breakthrough methods of energy production to power such devices. Because these propulsion goals are presumably far from fruition, a special emphasis is to identify credible research that will make measurable progress toward these goals in the near-term. The management techniques to address this challenge are presented, with a special emphasis on the process used to review, prioritize, and select research tasks. This selection process includes these key features: (a) research tasks are constrained to only address the immediate unknowns, curious effects or critical issues, (b) reliability of assertions is more important than the implications of the assertions, which includes the practice where the reviewers judge credibility rather than feasibility, and (c) total scores are obtained by multiplying the criteria scores rather than by adding. Lessons learned and revisions planned are discussed.

Millis, Marc G.↗