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At least 91 records · Page 5

Incentivizing Cyber Security Investment in the Power Sector Using An Extended Cyber Insurance Framework

Collaboration between the DHS Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and public- sector partners has revealed that a dearth of cyber- incident data combined with the unpredictability of cyber attacks have contributed to a shortfall in first-party cyber insurance protection in the critical infrastructure community. This research explores the foundations of insurance theory and adopts behavioral manipulation methods to incentivize cyber-security investment. We validate the model by applying power industry performance data from 2013-2015 to assess risk facing the industry. Results show that the model can successfully discriminate between individual power companies as well as geographic regions on the basis of risk and can recommend cyber risk- management strategies tailored to individual risk profiles. Here, the adoption of this framework could invite more market participation, which will create a more robust cyber- incident reporting environment, contributing directly to the DHS goal of creating a national cyber- incident data repository.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hurricane Harvey Highlights: Need to Assess the Adequacy of Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation Methods

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the primary criterion used to design flood protection measures for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. Based on our analysis using the Stage IV (ST4) quantitative precipitation estimates, precipitation associated with Hurricane Harvey near Houston, Texas, represents a PMP-scale storm and partially exceeds the Hydrometeorological Report No. 51 (HMR51) 72-h PMP estimates at 5,000 mi 2 (ST4=805 mm; HMR51=780 mm) and 10,000 mi 2 (ST4=686 mm; HMR51=673 mm). We also find statistically significant increasing trends since 1949 in the annual maximum total precipitable water and dew point temperature observations along the US Gulf Coast region, suggesting that, if the trend continues, the theoretical upper bound of PMP could be even larger. Our analysis of Hurricane Harvey rainfall data demonstrates that an extremely large PMP-scale storm is physically possible and that PMP estimates should not be considered overly conservative. Furthermore, this case study highlights the need for improved PMP estimation methodologies to account for long-term trends and to ensure the safety of our critical infrastructures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Developing a Robust, Interoperable GNSS Space Service Volume (SSV) for the Global Space User Community

For over two decades, researchers, space users, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) service providers, and international policy makers have been working diligently to expand the space-borne use of the Global Positioning System (GPS) and, most recently, to employ the full complement of GNSS constellations to increase spacecraft navigation performance. Space-borne Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) applications employing GNSS are now ubiquitous in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). GNSS use in space is quickly expanding into the Space Service Volume (SSV), the signal environment in the volume surrounding the Earth that enables real-time PNT measurements from GNSS systems at altitudes of 3000 km and above. To support the current missions and planned future missions within the SSV, initiatives are being conducted in the United States and internationally to ensure that GNSS signals are available, robust, and yield precise navigation performance. These initiatives include the Interagency Forum for Operational Requirements (IFOR) effort in the United States, to support GPS SSV signal robustness through future design changes, and the United Nations-sponsored International Committee on GNSS (ICG), to coordinate SSV development across all international GNSS constellations and regional augmentations. The results of these efforts have already proven fruitful, enabling new missions through radically improved navigation and timing performance, ensuring quick recovery from trajectory maneuvers, improving space vehicle autonomy and making GNSS signals more resilient from potential disruptions. Missions in the SSV are operational now and have demonstrated outstanding PNT performance characteristics; much better than what was envisioned less than a decade ago. The recent launch of the first in a series of US weather satellites will employ the use of GNSS in the SSV to substantially improve weather prediction and public-safety situational awareness of fast moving events, including hurricanes, flash floods, severe storms, tornados and wildfires. Thus, the benefits of the GNSS expansion and use into the SSV are tremendous, resulting in orders of magnitude return in investment to national governments and extraordinary societal benefits, including lives saved and critical infrastructure and property protected. However, this outstanding success is tempered by dual challenges: that for GPS, the current SSV specifications do not adequately protect SSV future use; and that for GNSS, the capabilities that are currently available are not protected in the future by specifications.

Bauer, Frank H.↗

Developing a Robust, Interoperable GNSS Space Service Volume (SSV) for the Global Space User Community

For over two decades, researchers, space users, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) service providers, and international policy makers have been working diligently to expand the space-borne use of the Global Positioning System (GPS) and, most recently, to employ the full complement of GNSS constellations to increase spacecraft navigation performance. Space-borne Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) applications employing GNSS are now ubiquitous in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). GNSS use in space is quickly expanding into the Space Service Volume (SSV), the signal environment in the volume surrounding the Earth that enables real-time PNT measurements from GNSS systems at altitudes of 3000 km and above. To support the current missions and planned future missions within the SSV, initiatives are being conducted in the United States and internationally to ensure that GNSS signals are available, robust, and yield precise navigation performance. These initiatives include the Interagency Forum for Operational Requirements (IFOR) effort in the United States, to support GPS SSV signal robustness through future design changes, and the United Nations-sponsored International Committee on GNSS (ICG), to coordinate SSV development across all international GNSS constellations and regional augmentations. The results of these efforts have already proven fruitful, enabling new missions through radically improved navigation and timing performance, ensuring quick recovery from trajectory maneuvers, improving space vehicle autonomy and making GNSS signals more resilient from potential disruptions. Missions in the SSV are operational now and have demonstrated outstanding PNT performance characteristics; much better than what was envisioned less than a decade ago. The recent launch of the first in a series of US weather satellites will employ the use of GNSS in the SSV to substantially improve weather prediction and public-safety situational awareness of fast moving events, including hurricanes, flash floods, severe storms, tornados and wildfires. Thus, the benefits of the GNSS expansion and use into the SSV are tremendous, resulting in orders of magnitude return in investment to national governments and extraordinary societal benefits, including lives saved and critical infrastructure and property protected. However, this outstanding success is tempered by dual challenges: that for GPS, the current SSV specifications do not adequately protect SSV future use; and that for GNSS, the capabilities that are currently available are not protected in the future by specifications.

Bauer, Frank H.↗

Comparison of Daily, Monthly (Lunar), Yearly, Decadal, Quarter-Century, Half-Century, and Centurial Shoreline Change Rates at the Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral, Florida, USA

The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is North America’s premier spaceport and provides crucial access to space for both government and private entities. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) facilities are clustered along a 12 km active shoreline at Cape Canaveral, Florida, USA, with the entire NASA and US Space Force station (SF) shoreline stretching over 32 km (Figure 1). Several Launch Complexes (LC’s) including the modern heavy lift facilities are only a few tens of meters from the active shoreline and are imminently threatened by continued sea level rise and ongoing coastal erosion. The space center was built on the northern part of Cape Canaveral. Images collected in 1943 show that Apollo Heavy Lift Launch Complexes were built in swales on ground that was at or below sea level with Launch Complex 39B constructed on a paleo inlet (Figures 2 and 3). Today the Heavy Lift Launch Complexes are ~220 meters from the shoreline with the area between the complexes retreating at the highest rates along the cape (Figure 4). To better understand the intersection of environmental concerns, limited budgets for shoreline protection, and sheltering critical infrastructure; NASA, The University of Florida, United States Geological Survey (USGS), National Park Service (NPS) and contractors have and continue to conduct numerous studies to characterize and understand the shoreline evolution and rates of change at KSC. This project aims to better understand and visualize the temporal and spatial variability of change along the NASA shoreline beyond a simple point to point solution.

Richard MacKenzie III↗

Security of Electronic Voting in the United States

In the midst of numerous high-profile cyber-attacks, the US is considering whether to categorize the US electronic voting system as “critical infrastructure”, to be protected and invested in much the same way as the US power grid or waterways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

State Legislative Options to Enhance Solar Cybersecurity

One of the mitigative solutions to solar cybersecurity risks is to proactively develop legislation which can facilitate, guide, or require actionable policy and program development . Legislation can reinforce the criticality of protecting energy infrastructure from cyber threats in several ways that can have long lasting impacts . This tool outlines relevant state cybersecurity legislation examples which can apply to solar cybersecurity and can serve as frameworks for future legislation by states seeking legislative options to help mitigate these risks

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Laboratory-Directed Research and Development 2016 Summary Annual Report

The Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) reports its status to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by March of each year. The program operates under the authority of DOE Order 413.2C, “Laboratory Directed Research and Development” (April 19, 2006), which establishes DOE’s requirements for the program while providing the laboratory director broad flexibility for program implementation. LDRD funds are obtained through a charge to all INL programs. This report includes summaries of all INL LDRD research activities supported during Fiscal Year (FY) 2016. INL is the lead laboratory for the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE). The INL mission is to discover, demonstrate, and secure innovative nuclear energy solutions, other clean energy options, and critical infrastructure with a vision to change the world’s energy future and secure our critical infrastructure. Operating since 1949, INL is the nation’s leading research, development, and demonstration center for nuclear energy, including nuclear nonproliferation and physical and cyber-based protection of energy systems and critical infrastructure, as well as integrated energy systems research, development, demonstration, and deployment. INL has been managed and operated by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC (a wholly owned company of Battelle) for DOE since 2005. Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, is a partnership between Battelle, BWX Technologies, Inc., AECOM, the Electric Power Research Institute, the National University Consortium (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ohio State University, North Carolina State University, University of New Mexico, and Oregon State University), and the Idaho university collaborators (i.e., University of Idaho, Idaho State University, and Boise State University). Since its creation, INL’s research and development (R&D) portfolio has broadened with targeted programs supporting national missions to advance nuclear energy, enable clean energy deployment, and secure and modernize critical infrastructure. INL’s research, development, and demonstration capabilities, its resources, and its unique geography enable integration of scientific discovery, innovation, engineering, operations, and controls into complex large-scale testbeds for discovery, innovation, and demonstration of transformational clean energy and security concepts. These attributes strengthen INL’s leadership as a demonstration laboratory. As a national resource, INL also applies its capabilities and skills to the specific needs of other federal agencies and customers through DOE’s Strategic Partnership Program.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment

Risk assessment plays a vital role in protecting our nation's critical infrastructure. Traditionally, such assessments have been conducted as a singular activity confined to the boarders of a particular asset or utility with little external sharing of information. In contrast other domains, e.g., disaster preparedness, cyber security, food-borne hazards, have demonstrated the benefits of sharing data, experiences and lessons learned in assessing and managing risk. Here we explore the concept of a Shared Risk Framework (SRF) in the context of critical infrastructure assessments. In this exploration, key elements of an SRF are introduced and initial instantiations demonstrated by way of three water utility assessments. Results from these three demonstrations were then combined with results from four other risk assessments developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts. Through this comparison we were able to explore potential challenges and benefits from implementation of a SRF. Challenges included both the capacity and interest of local utilities to conduct a shared risk assessment; particularly, wide scale adoption of any SRF will require a clear demonstration that such an effort supports the basic mission of the utility, adds benefit to the utility, and protects utility data from unintended access or misuse. In terms of benefits, anonymous sharing of results among utilities could provide the added benefits of recognizing and correcting bias; identifying ‘unknown, unknowns’; assisting self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility; and providing a basis for treating shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A High-Fidelity Cyber-Physical Testbed-Based Benchmarking Dataset For Testing Operational Technology Specific Intrusion Detection Systems

Quality datasets serve a critical purpose in cyber security research. Data is needed to understand system behavior and develop security controls to protect critical systems. However, for critical infrastructure operational environments there is a lack of available datasets to study because of the high cost and specialized capabilities necessary to generate them. This paper documents the development of a dataset of high fidelity hardware in the loop laboratory simulated models of electric and natural gas distribution systems with real cyber attack test cases. A deep dive discussion for the experimental setup and controls for generating the data is provided along with observations from using the data in evaluating intrusion detection approaches.

Ashok, Aditya↗

Leveraging High-Fidelity Datasets for Machine Learning-based Anomaly Detection in Smart Grids

Data-driven intrusion detection systems are increasingly becoming essential for protecting critical cyber-physical infrastructure, such as the power grid, against the growing number of sophisticated cyber-attacks. The development of such tools is reliant on the availability of high-fidelity cyber-physical datasets that cover a diverse variety of potential cyber events. In this work, a high-fidelity smart grid platform is utilized to develop an extensive dataset, which is used to train and test a machine learning-based intrusion detection system. The evaluation of the developed IDS shows robust performance even when tested with statistically diverse test data not used in training.

Hyder, Burhan↗

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Optimizing stadium evacuation by integrating geocomputation and affordance theory

Football is culturally and economically important in the United States, and football stadiums are part of the country's critical infrastructure, thus receiving government protection against hazard events. In this project, an agent-based evacuation model was implemented to optimize evacuation time from The University of Southern Mississippi's M.M. Roberts Stadium (football) by accounting for evacuees’ age, gender, physical fitness, alcohol consumption, and prior experience with hazard events. The findings revealed that (i) the age and gender of an individual impact his/her locomotion speed and (ii) evacuation route choice is influenced by evacuees’ perception of its safety and effectiveness. The estimated evacuation times for all evacuees to exit only the stadium and the stadium plus the surrounding campus were 20.82 and 165.01 minutes, respectively. Both of these times were shorter than the evacuation times determined by models employing location-unspecific locomotion speeds. One-way analysis of variance revealed that there were statistically significant differences between use of location-specific and location-unspecific within-stadium evacuation times (p ≤ 0.001 with α = 0.05). These results suggest that using local data is vital to accurately estimate evacuation time.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

TCIA Secure Cyber Critical Infrastructure Modernization.

The Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia Labs) tribal cyber infrastructure assurance initiative was developed in response to growing national cybersecurity concerns in the the sixteen Department of Homeland Security (DHS) defined critical infrastructure sectors1. Technical assistance is provided for the secure modernization of critical infrastructure and key resources from a cyber-ecosystem perspective with an emphasis on enhanced security, resilience, and protection. Our purpose is to address national critical infrastructure challenges as a shared responsibility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Microgrid optimized resource dispatch for public-purpose resiliency and sustainability. The Olney Town Center Microgrid Project

Communities in Atlantic coastal regions have in recent years sought to improve the resiliency of their critical infrastructure and public services, especially to protect against hurricanes and other events capable of causing widespread damage and disruption. As the backbone of any community’s critical functions, the electricity distribution system requires high resiliency in order to maintain local energy delivery services. Against this backdrop, the Project sought to develop a resilient energy microgrid control system capable of integrating distributed renewable energy resources, natural gas CHP units, energy storage, and demand-side management technologies in near-real-time optimization schemes for the community of Olney, Md. The Montgomery County Planning Board in 2005 established the Olney Town Center area as a “civic center/town commons,” in part because it serves as a key point of interaction in the community – but also because it contains numerous vital community assets. With a total peak electrical load of about 8 MW (including Montgomery General Hospital with a 2.4 MW peak), the Project area is a business and essential services area, directly serving a suburban population of more than 33,000 residents. It contains a hospital, police station, two fire stations, two schools, grocery stores, and gas stations, and the community’s water tower, among other things. Moreover, the location stands at the crossroads of two state highways that represent major regional arteries for commerce and public safety in Montgomery County. These characteristics made the Project area an appropriate setting for considering microgrid deployment. It presented a model of a typical Maryland suburban community, with geographic dispersion of vital assets over a sizeable area, and a combination of overhead distribution lines and underground cables serving those critical loads. Such a representative model helped to ensure the solutions developed and the scenarios tested would be readily applicable to other communities in the state and the region. Further, the Project’s outcomes and lessons provide insights to guide community microgrid design and development in many locations. To achieve Project objectives – including those established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory – the Project team researched, developed, and tested in simulation a set of microgrid controls capable of maintaining electricity supplies for critical community loads in the event of a regional utility outage lasting many days or even weeks. Testing and analysis showed that the microgrid would be capable of maintaining electricity supply to critical loads essentially indefinitely in most outage scenarios, while also substantially improving overall reliability for microgrid customers. With targeted improvements in local utility distribution infrastructure, test analysis showed that the microgrid would be capable of reducing annual electricity outages for critical loads by 98%. Further, to help achieve environmental and efficiency policy goals established by both the State of Maryland and the federal government, the team designed the system to reduce the annual carbon footprint of served loads by 20%, and to improve system energy efficiency for those loads by at least 20%. Testing showed that, as designed, the system is capable of meeting these performance requirements, with potential for further improvements through more effective thermal energy utilization. This Final Report, comprised of four volumes and 11 annexes, presents the results of these project efforts, including feasibility assessment (section F) and guidance for decision-makers considering prospective deployment of public-purpose microgrid systems in Maryland communities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Critical Roles of Information, Analysis, Research, and Operations in the Cyber Realm

PNNL has developed an adaptive cyber integration framework (ACIF) to facilitate the timely sharing of cyber threat information along with the advancement of situational awareness tools to enhance protection against and respond to critical infrastructure cybersecurity threats. The ACIF comprises components implemented iteratively to achieve research and mission goals. The ACIF components include data generation technologies, analytic tools development and maturation, data enrichment and fusion, trust building with stakeholders, investigative research, analytic rigor, production, and dissemination. Each component, its importance to the ACIF, and how they can be adopted and applied across other information-sharing sectors and domains are discussed in this paper.

Cyber Threat Intelligence, Cyber Security, Data En↗