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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2021

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiagvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2021. Images were captured from early spring (1 April) through to mid fall (22 October). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every hour, then from 2021-07-09 images were recorded every 10 minutes until the end of data collection on 2021-10-22. Images have been combined in *.zip format (6.1 GB). Closer fields of view (northeasterly) were also captured using 4 Wingscapes TimelapseCam cameras mounted on a mast on the sled shed. These cameras were operated from 2021-06-19 to 2021-09-22, with images recorded every 30 minutes from 9:00 to 16:30 Alaska daylight time (AKDT, UTC-8). Individual jpg images from each camera have been combined in zip format. The data package includes a metadata document with example fields of view from each camera (*.pdf). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil physical and thermal properties from soil samples at multiple locations at Teller Road Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019

This dataset contains results of the laboratory analysis of soil samples collected across the watershed located at miles #27 along the Teller road, near Nome, AK. The dataset includes 124 soil samples retrieved from 52 locations during the first week of August 2019. The soil samples were collected in the top 1.2 m of soil with volume known samples, analyzed with a thermal analyser to infer thermal parameters (thermal conductivity, volumetric heat capacity and thermal diffusivity), and then processed in a lab for estimation of their bulk density, water content, carbon and nitrogen content, soil texture, and elemental fractions. This dataset has one csv file and one pdf file.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2020

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiagvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2020. Images were captured from early spring (14 April) through to late fall (10 November). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images (*.jpg) have been combined into *.zip format (1.9 GB) and the data package includes a metadata document with example fields of view from the camera (*.pdf).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2017

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Barrow (now Utqiagvik), Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the BNL TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2017. Images were captured from early spring (24 April) through to late fall (15 November). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every 10 minutes. jpg images have been compressed in *.tar.gz format (12.1 GB) and additional information in *.pdf and *.txt files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2018

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiagvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the BNL TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2018. Images were captured from early spring (13 April) through to mid fall (18 October). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every hour until 16 June, and then every 10 minutes. Files were renamed with the date and time of the image. jpg images have been compressed in *.tar.gz format (7.9 GB). Different fields of view (northeasterly) were also captured using 3 Wingscapes TimelapseCam cameras mounted on a mast on the sled shed. Images were recorded from 21 June to 24 September, 2018, at 30 minute intervals, from 11:00 - 14:30, Alaska daylight time (AKDT, UTC-8). Movie files (.mp4) of each Wingscapes camera dataset. Additional metadata included in *.pdf and *.csv files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2022

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiaġvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology across the site of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) experiment (2017-2021) during the growing season of 2022. Images were recorded from late spring (18 May) through to mid fall (25 October). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every hour, at 10 minute intervals from 2022-07-01 until 2021-08-10, then hourly until the end of data collection on 2022-10-25. Images have been combined in *.tar.gz format (6 GB, 7367 jpg images). The data package includes a metadata document with example fields of view from each month of operation (*.pdf).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2021-2022

Timelapse camera images from Council Mile Marker (MM) 71, Kougarok MM 64, Kougarok Fire Complex (KFC, also referred to as the Garfield Fire Site), and Teller MM 27 NGEE-Arctic field sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, captured from August 2021 to July 2022. Ten Wingscape Timelapse Pro cameras, and twenty seven Power-interval Camera Automation Modules (PiCAMs) designed by Brookhaven National Laboratory's Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Technology (TEST) group were deployed targeting patches of low and tall shrubs (including Alnus sp. and Salix sp.) and general vegetation and landscape views. Images from Wingscape cameras were recorded at hourly intervals from 11 AM to 2 PM, and images from PiCAMs were recorded at 5 hourly intervals from 12 AM to 8 PM, continuously for 12 months and capture vegetation phenology, snow accumulation and snow melt events. This data package includes images (*.jpg), organized by site and camera ID, and metadata with details of the cameras used, number of images recorded, start and end dates, GPS locations and example fields of view. Additional information available in *.pdf and *.csv files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

iButton and Tinytag snow temperature measurements at Teller 27 and Kougarok 64, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2021-2022

Snow temperature measurements were collected at the NGEE Arctic Teller Road Site at mile marker 27 (TL_MM27) and at the Kougarok Road Site at mile marker 64 (KG_MM64) on the Seward Peninsula. Data were collected from October 1, 2021 to August 16, 2022 using iButton Link DS1926-F5# Thermochron miniature temperature sensors (https://www.ibuttonlink.com/products/ds1921g) and Tinytag TGP-4017 internal sensors (https://www.micronmeters.com/product/tgp-4017-internal-sensor-40-to-85-c-40-f-to-185-f) deployed across the Kougarok and Teller sites. These sensors are a cost-efficient way to collect snowpack temperatures at a higher spatial resolution than what is normally achieved. iButton data were collected every 4 hours beginning on October 1, 2021. Tinytag data collection began between October 9 and October 12, 2021 depending on sensor installation date. Tinytag data were collected every 30 minutes. In total, data were collected from 236 iButtons and 30 Tinytags. This dataset contains four *.csv files of near-ground surface temperatures at various locations throughout each study site and four *.shp files of sensor locations. Data were collected throughout the snow cover season so that snowpack characteristics could be derived using the temperature data. Sensors were placed both inside and outside of vegetation to better capture the spatial variability of snow properties across each domain. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2022-2023

Timelapse camera images from Council Mile Marker (MM) 71, Kougarok MM 64, Kougarok Fire Complex (KFC), and Teller MM 27 NGEE-Arctic field sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, captured from July 2022 to July 2023. Eight Wingscape Timelapse Pro cameras, and thirty-one Power-interval Camera Automation Modules (PiCAMs) designed by Brookhaven National Laboratory?s Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Technology (TEST) group were deployed targeting patches of low and tall shrubs (including Alnus sp. and Salix sp.) and general vegetation and landscape views. Images from Wingscape cameras were recorded at hourly intervals from 11 AM to 2 PM, and images from PiCAMs were recorded at 5 hourly intervals from 12 AM to 8 PM, continuously for 12 months and capture vegetation phenology, snow accumulation and snow melt events. This data package includes images (*.jpg), organized by site and camera ID, and metadata with details of the cameras used, number of images recorded, start and end dates, GPS locations and example fields of view. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to constrain the uncertainty of a high‐fidelity freeze‐thaw model. Projections from 9 Global Climate Models (GCM) are stochastically downscaled to generate future trajectories of surface ground heat flux. Under the two emission scenarios SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, the projected average thawing depths by 2100 vary from 0.4 to 14.4 m or 2.1 to 17.7 m, and the increase in the top 10 m average temperature from 2015 to 2100 is 1.2–2.7°C or 1.9–3.0°C. The results show that the freeze‐thaw model uncertainty can sometimes dominate over that of GCM outputs, calling for site‐specific information to improve model accuracy. The framework is applicable for understanding permafrost degradation and related uncertainties at larger scales.

Bayesian downscaling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Local-scale Arctic tundra heterogeneity affects regional-scale carbon dynamics

In northern Alaska nearly 65% of the terrestrial surface is composed of polygonal ground, where geomorphic tundra landforms disproportionately influence carbon and nutrient cycling over fine spatial scales. Process-based biogeochemical models used for local to Pan-Arctic projections of ecological responses to climate change typically operate at coarse-scales (1km 2 –0.5°) at which fine-scale (<1km 2 ) tundra heterogeneity is often aggregated to the dominant land cover unit. Here, we evaluate the importance of tundra heterogeneity for representing soil carbon dynamics at fine to coarse spatial scales. We leveraged the legacy of data collected near Utqiagvik, Alaska between 1973 and 2016 for model initiation, parameterization, and validation. Simulation uncertainty increased with a reduced representation of tundra heterogeneity and coarsening of spatial scale. Hierarchical cluster analysis of an ensemble of 21 st -century simulations reveals that a minimum of two tundra landforms (dry and wet) and a maximum of 4km 2 spatial scale is necessary for minimizing uncertainties (<10%) in regional to Pan-Arctic modeling applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Alaskan carbon-climate feedbacks will be weaker than inferred from short-term experiments

Climate warming is occurring fastest at high latitudes. Based on short-term field experiments, this warming is projected to stimulate soil organic matter decomposition, and promote a positive feedback to climate change. We show here that the tightly coupled, nonlinear nature of high-latitude ecosystems implies that short-term (<10 year) warming experiments produce emergent ecosystem carbon stock temperature sensitivities inconsistent with emergent multi-decadal responses. We first demonstrate that a well-tested mechanistic ecosystem model accurately represents observed carbon cycle and active layer depth responses to short-term summer warming in four diverse Alaskan sites. We then show that short-term warming manipulations do not capture the non-linear, long-term dynamics of vegetation, and thereby soil organic matter, that occur in response to thermal, hydrological, and nutrient transformations belowground. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in multi-decadal Arctic carbon cycle trajectories and argue for more mechanistic models to improve predictive capabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Timing of iceberg scours and massive ice-rafting events in the subtropical North Atlantic

Abstract High resolution seafloor mapping shows extraordinary evidence that massive (>300 m thick) icebergs once drifted >5,000 km south along the eastern United States, with >700 iceberg scours now identified south of Cape Hatteras. Here we report on sediment cores collected from several buried scours that show multiple plow marks align with Heinrich Event 3 (H3), ~31,000 years ago. Numerical glacial iceberg simulations indicate that the transport of icebergs to these sites occurs during massive, but short-lived, periods of elevated meltwater discharge. Transport of icebergs to the subtropics, away from deep water formation sites, may explain why H3 was associated with only a modest increase in ice-rafting across the subpolar North Atlantic, and implies a complex relationship between freshwater forcing and climate change. Stratigraphy from subbottom data across the scour marks shows there are additional features that are both older and younger, and may align with other periods of elevated meltwater discharge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Abstract The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced jet stream waviness induced by suppressed tropical Pacific convection during boreal summer

Abstract Consensus on the cause of recent midlatitude circulation changes toward a wavier manner in the Northern Hemisphere has not been reached, albeit a number of studies collectively suggest that this phenomenon is driven by global warming and associated Arctic amplification. Here, through a fingerprint analysis of various global simulations and a tropical heating-imposed experiment, we suggest that the suppression of tropical convection along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone induced by sea surface temperature (SST) cooling trends over the tropical Eastern Pacific contributed to the increased summertime midlatitude waviness in the past 40 years through the generation of a Rossby-wave-train propagating within the jet waveguide and the reduced north-south temperature gradient. This perspective indicates less of an influence from the Arctic amplification on the observed mid-latitude wave amplification than what was previously estimated. This study also emphasizes the need to better predict the tropical Pacific SST variability in order to project the summer jet waviness and consequent weather extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alpine permafrost could account for a quarter of thawed carbon based on Plio-Pleistocene paleoclimate analogue

Estimates of the permafrost-climate feedback vary in magnitude and sign, partly because permafrost carbon stability in warmer-than-present conditions is not well constrained. Here we use a Plio-Pleistocene lacustrine reconstruction of mean annual air temperature (MAAT) from the Tibetan Plateau, the largest alpine permafrost region on the Earth, to constrain past and future changes in permafrost carbon storage. Clumped isotope-temperatures (Δ 47 -T) indicate warmer MAAT (~1.2 °C) prior to 2.7 Ma, and support a permafrost-free environment on the northern Tibetan Plateau in a warmer-than-present climate. Δ 47 -T indicate ~8.1 °C cooling from 2.7 Ma, coincident with Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification. Combined with climate models and global permafrost distribution, these results indicate, under conditions similar to mid-Pliocene Warm period (3.3–3.0 Ma), ~60% of alpine permafrost containing ~85 petagrams of carbon may be vulnerable to thawing compared to ~20% of circumarctic permafrost. This estimate highlights ~25% of permafrost carbon and the permafrost-climate feedback could originate in alpine areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994–2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm –2 ) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗