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Rain estimation from satellites: An examination of the Griffith-Woodley technique

The Griffith-Woodley Technique (GWT) is an approach to estimating precipitation using infrared observations of clouds from geosynchronous satellites. It is examined in three ways: an analysis of the terms in the GWT equations; a case study of infrared imagery portraying convective development over Florida; and the comparison of a simplified equation set and resultant rain map to results using the GWT. The objective is to determine the dominant factors in the calculation of GWT rain estimates. Analysis of a single day's convection over Florida produced a number of significant insights into various terms in the GWT rainfall equations. Due to the definition of clouds by a threshold isotherm the majority of clouds on this day did not go through an idealized life cycle before losing their identity through merger, splitting, etc. As a result, 85% of the clouds had a defined life of 0.5 or 1 h. For these clouds the terms in the GWT which are dependent on cloud life history become essentially constant. The empirically derived ratio of radar echo area to cloud area is given a singular value (0.02) for 43% of the sample, while the rainrate term is 20.7 mmh-1 for 61% of the sample. For 55% of the sampled clouds the temperature weighting term is identically 1.0. Cloud area itself is highly correlated (r=0.88) with GWT computed rain volume. An important, discriminating parameter in the GWT is the temperature defining the coldest 10% cloud area. The analysis further shows that the two dominant parameters in rainfall estimation are the existence of cold cloud and the duration of cloud over a point.

Negri, A. J.↗

Rain estimation from satellites - An examination of the Griffith-Woodley Technique

The Griffith-Woodley Technique (GWT) is an approach to estimating precipitation using infrared observations of clouds from geosynchronous satellites. It is examined in three ways: an analysis of the terms in the GWT equations; a case study of infrared imagery portraying convective development over Florida; and the comparison of a simplified equation set and resultant rain map to results using the GWT. The objective is to determine the dominant factors in the calculation of GWT rain estimates. Analysis of a single day's convection over Florida produced a number of significant insights into various terms in the GWT rainfall equations. Due to the definition of clouds by a threshold isotherm the majority of clouds on this day did not go through an idealized life cycle before losing their identity through merger, splitting, etc. As a result, 85 percent of the clouds had a defined life of 0.5 or 1 h. For these clouds, the terms in the GWT which are dependent on cloud life history become essentially constant. The empirically derived ratio of radar echo area to cloud area is given a singular value (0.02) for 43 percent of the sample, while the rainrate term is 20.7 mmh-1 for 61 percent of the sample. For 55 percent of the sampled clouds, the temperature weighting term is identically 1.0. Cloud area itself is highly correlated (r = 0.88) with GWT computed rain volume. An important, discriminating parameter in the GWT is the temperature defining the coldest 10 percent cloud area. The analysis further shows that the two dominant parameters in rainfall estimation are the existence of cold cloud and the duration of cloud over a point. Previously announced in STAR as N84-13735

Negri, A. J.↗

Effect of initial delamination on Mode 1 and Mode 2 interlaminar fracture toughness and fatigue fracture threshold

Static and fatigue double-cantilever beam (DCB) and end-notch flexure (ENF) tests were conducted to determine the effect of the simulated initial delamination in interlaminar fracture toughness, G(sub c), and fatigue fracture threshold, G(sub th). Unidirectional, 24-ply specimens of S2/SP250 glass/epoxy were tested using Kapton inserts of four different thickness - 13, 25, 75, and 130 microns, at the midplane at one end, or with tension or shear precracks, to simulate an initial delamination. To determine G(sub c), the fatigue fracture threshold below which no delamination growth would occur in less than 1 x 10(exp 6) cycles, fatigue tests were conducted by cyclically loading specimens until delamination growth was detected. Consistent values of model 1 fracture toughness, G(sub Ic), were measured from DCB specimens with inserts of thickness 75 microns or thinner, or with shear precracks. The fatigue DCB tests gave similar values of G(sub Ith) for the 13, 25, and 75 microns specimens. Results for the shear precracked specimens were significantly lower that for specimens without precracks. Results for both the static and fatigue ENF tests showed that measured G(IIc) and G(IIth) values decreased with decreasing insert thickness, so that no limiting thickness could be determined. Results for specimens with inserts of 75 microns or thicker were significantly higher than the results for precracked specimens or specimens with 13 or 25 microns inserts.

Murri, Gretchen Bostaph↗

Towards a Delamination Fatigue Methodology for Composite Materials

A methodology that accounts for both delaminaton onset and growth in composite structural components is proposed for improved fatigue life prediction to reduce life cycle costs and improve accept/reject criteria for manufacturing flaws. The benefits of using a Delamination Onset Threshold (DOT) approach in combination with a Modified Damage Tolerance (MDT) approach is highlighted. The use of this combined approach to establish accept/reject criteria, requiring less conservative initial manufacturing flaw sizes, is illustrated.

OBrien, Thomas K.↗

Evaluations of Risks from the Lunar and Mars Radiation Environments

Protecting astronauts from the space radiation environments requires accurate projections of radiation in future space missions. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) flux for the next solar cycle was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which has been derived from GCR flux and Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last 4 decades. For the chaotic nature of solar particle event (SPE) occurrence, the mean frequency of SPE at any given proton fluence threshold during a defined mission duration was obtained from a Poisson process model using proton fluence measurements of SPEs during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Analytic energy spectra of 34 historically large SPEs were constructed over broad energy ranges extending to GeV. Using an integrated space radiation model (which includes the transport codes HZETRN [1] and BRYNTRN [2], and the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG[3]), the propagation and interaction properties of the energetic nucleons through various media were predicted. Risk assessment from GCR and SPE was evaluated at the specific organs inside a typical spacecraft using CAM [4] model. The representative risk level at each event size and their standard deviation were obtained from the analysis of 34 SPEs. Risks from different event sizes and their frequency of occurrences in a specified mission period were evaluated for the concern of acute health effects especially during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). The results will be useful for the development of an integrated strategy of optimizing radiation protection on the lunar and Mars missions. Keywords: Space Radiation Environments; Galactic Cosmic Radiation; Solar Particle Event; Radiation Risk; Risk Analysis; Radiation Protection.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Weather disturbances↗

Windblown sand on Mars: The effect of saltation threshold on drift potentials derived from Mars GCM

The rate at which the wind can redistribute sedimentary material is an important part of any planet's sedimentologic cycle, particularly for Mars, where the competing effects of other gradational processes are less than on Earth. The aeolian drift potential (DP) is a measure of the amount of material capable of being moved through a unit length by the wind for a given period of time. DP is a useful measure of the potential redistribution rate of windblown material on regional scales. The Martian aeolian DP was calculated from laboratory studies of sand movement conducted at Martian atmospheric densities and from surface stress, temperature, and pressure values for that region as determined from the Mars General (Atmospheric) Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA/Ames Research Center. In our simulations for Mars, DP changes in both magnitude (as expected) and direction if the saltation threshold is altered.

Xu, P.↗

Detection Thresholds of Falling Snow from Satellite-Borne Active and Passive Sensors

Precipitation, including rain and snow, is a critical part of the Earth's energy and hydrology cycles. In order to collect information on the complete global precipitation cycle and to understand the energy budget in terms of precipitation, uniform global estimates of both liquid and frozen precipitation must be collected. Active observations of falling snow are somewhat easier to estimate since the radar will detect the precipitation particles and one only needs to know surface temperature to determine if it is liquid rain or snow. The challenges of estimating falling snow from passive spaceborne observations still exist though progress is being made. While these challenges are still being addressed, knowledge of their impact on expected retrieval results is an important key for understanding falling snow retrieval estimations. Important information to assess falling snow retrievals includes knowing thresholds of detection for active and passive sensors, various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types. For example, can a lake effect snow system with low (~2.5 km) cloud tops having an ice water content (Iwe) at the surface of 0.25 g m-3 and dendrite snowflakes be detected? If this information is known, we can focus retrieval efforts on detectable storms and concentrate advances on achievable results. Here, the focus is to determine thresholds of detection for falling snow for various snow conditions over land and lake surfaces. The analysis relies on simulated Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) simulations of falling snow cases since simulations provide all the information to determine the measurements from space and the ground truth. Results are presented for active radar at Ku, Ka, and W-band and for passive radiometer channels from 10 to 183 GHz (Skofronick-Jackson, et al. submitted to IEEE TGRS, April 2012). The notable results show: (1) the W-Band radar has detection thresholds more than an order of magnitude lower than the future GPM sensors, (2) the cloud structure macrophysics influences the thresholds of detection for passive channels, (3) the snowflake microphysics plays a large role in the detection threshold for active and passive instruments, (4) with reasonable assumptions, the passive 166 GHz channel has detection threshold values comparable to the GPM DPR Ku and Ka band radars with ~0.05 g m-3 detected at the surface, or an ~0.5-1 mm hr-l melted snow rate (equivalent to 0.5-2 cm hr-l solid fluffy snowflake rate).

Jackson, Gail↗

Geoeffectiveness (D (sub st) and K (sub p)) of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1995-2009 and Implications for Storm Forecasting

We summarize the geoeffectiveness (based on the Dst and Kp indices) of the more than 300 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that passed the Earth during 1996-2009, encompassing solar cycle 23. We subsequently estimate the probability that an ICME will generate geomagnetic activity that exceeds certain thresholds of Dst or Kp, including the NOAA "G" storm scale, based on maximum values of the southward magnetic field component (Bs), the solar wind speed (V), and the y component (Ey) of the solar wind convective electric field E = -V x B, in the ICME or sheath ahead of the ICME. Consistent with previous studies, the geoeffectiveness of an ICME is correlated with Bs or Ey approx.= VBs in the ICME or sheath, indicating that observations from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth are likely to provide the most reliable forecasts of the activity associated with an approaching ICME. There is also a general increase in geoeffectiveness with ICME speed, though the overall event-to-event correlation is weaker than for Bs and Ey. Nevertheless, using these results, we suggest that the speed of an ICME approaching the Earth inferred, for example, from routine remote sensing by coronagraphs on spacecraft well separated from the Earth or by all-sky imagers, could be used to estimate the likely geoeffectiveness of the ICME (our "comprehensive" ICME database provides a proxy for ICMEs identified in this way) with a longer lead time than may be possible using an upstream monitor

Richardson, I. G.↗

Influence of unbalance on the nonlinear dynamical response and stability of flexible rotor-bearing systems

In this paper, some of the effects of unbalance on the nonlinear response and stability of flexible rotor-bearing systems is presented from both a theoretical and experimental standpoint. In a linear system, operating above its stability threshold, the amplitude of motion grows exponentially with time and the orbits become unbounded. In an actual system, this is not necessarily the case. The actual amplitudes of motion may be bounded due to various nonlinear effects in the system. These nonlinear effects cause limit cycles of motion. Nonlinear effects are inherent in fluid film bearings and seals. Other contributors to nonlinear effects are shafts, couplings and foundations. In addition to affecting the threshold of stability, the nonlinear effects can cause jump phenomena to occur at not only the critical speeds, but also at stability onset or restabilization speeds.

Gunter, E. J.↗

Detection Thresholds of Falling Snow from Satellite-Borne Active and Passive Sensors

Precipitation, including rain and snow, is a critical part of the Earth's energy and hydrology cycles. Precipitation impacts latent heating profiles locally while global circulation patterns distribute precipitation and energy from the equator to the poles. For the hydrological cycle, falling snow is a primary contributor in northern latitudes during the winter seasons. Falling snow is the source of snow pack accumulations that provide fresh water resources for many communities in the world. Furthermore, falling snow impacts society by causing transportation disruptions during severe snow events. In order to collect information on the complete global precipitation cycle, both liquid and frozen precipitation must be collected. The challenges of estimating falling snow from space still exist though progress is being made. These challenges include weak falling snow signatures with respect to background (surface, water vapor) signatures for passive sensors over land surfaces, unknowns about the spherical and non-spherical shapes of the snowflakes, their particle size distributions (PSDs) and how the assumptions about the unknowns impact observed brightness temperatures or radar reflectivities, differences in near surface snowfall and total column snow amounts, and limited ground truth to validate against. While these challenges remain, knowledge of their impact on expected retrieval results is an important key for understanding falling snow retrieval estimations. Since falling snow from space is the next precipitation measurement challenge from space, information must be determined in order to guide retrieval algorithm development for these current and future missions. This information includes thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types. For example, can a lake effect snow system with low (approx 2.5 km) cloud tops having an ice water content (IWC) at the surface of 0.25 g / cubic m and dendrite snowflakes be detected? If this information is known, we can focus retrieval efforts on detectable storms and concentrate advances on achievable results. Here, the focus is to determine thresholds of detection for falling snow for various snow conditions over land and lake surfaces. The results rely on simulated Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) simulations of falling snow cases since simulations provide all the information to determine the measurements from space and the ground truth. Sensitivity analyses were performed to better ascertain the relationships between multifrequency microwave and millimeter-wave sensor observations and the falling snow/underlying field of view. In addition, thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types were studied. Results will be presented for active radar at Ku, Ka, and W-band and for passive radiometer channels from 10 to 183 GHz.

Gail Skofronick-Jackson↗

Mineral Dust Cycle in the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry Model (Monarch) Version 2.0

We present the dust module in the Multiscale Online Non-hydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry model (MONARCH) version 2.0, a chemical weather prediction system that can be used for regional and global modeling at a range of resolutions. The representations of dust processes in MONARCH were upgraded with a focus on dust emission (emission parameterizations, entrainment thresholds, considerations of soil moisture and surface cover), lower boundary conditions (roughness, potential dust sources), and dust–radiation interactions. MONARCH now allows modeling of global and regional mineral dust cycles using fundamentally different paradigms, ranging from strongly simplified to physics-based parameterizations. We present a detailed description of these updates along with four global benchmark simulations, which use conceptually different dust emission parameterizations, and we evaluate the simulations against observations of dust optical depth. We determine key dust parameters, such as global annual emission/deposition flux, dust loading, dust optical depth, mass-extinction efficiency, single-scattering albedo, and direct radiative effects. For dust-particle diameters up to 20 µm, the total annual dust emission and deposition fluxes obtained with our four experiments range between about 3500 and 6000 Tg, which largely depend upon differences in the emitted size distribution. Considering ellipsoidal particle shapes and dust refractive indices that account for size-resolved mineralogy, we estimate the global total (longwave and shortwave) dust direct radiative effect (DRE) at the surface to range between about −0.90 and −0.63 W m−2 and at the top of the atmosphere between −0.20 and −0.28 W m−2. Our evaluation demonstrates that MONARCH is able to reproduce key features of the spatiotemporal variability of the global dust cycle with important and insightful differences between the different configurations.

Dust cycle↗

Energetic solar proton versus terrestrially trapped proton fluxes for the active years 1977 - 1983

Ratios of solar to trapped proton fluences were computed for circular-orbit, geocentric space missions to be flown during the active phase of the next solar cycle (1977-1983). The ratios are presented as functions of orbit altitude and inclination, mission duration, proton energy threshold, and the chance the mission planner is willing to take that the actually encountered solar proton fluence will exceed the design fluence provided by the statistical solar proton model. It is shown that the ratio is most sensitively dependent on orbit altitude and inclination, with trapped protons dominant for low inclination, low and mid altitude orbits and for high inclination, mid altitude orbits. Conversely, solar protons are dominant for high inclination, low altitude orbits, and for low and high inclination, high altitude orbits.

King, J. H.↗

Sensitive detection of narrowband pulses

Highly monochromatic signals, such as TV carriers, can be detected sensitively by using a narrow filter (b < or = 1 Hz) and performing power accumulation on its output. If instead a low-duty-cycle pulsed signal of the same total energy is present, the sensitivity of a square law device, followed by a thresholding operation (to eliminate most samples containing only noise), followed by the algorithm to be described, is greater by about 7 dB in typical cases. This is particularly interesting to SETI because such a pulsed signal is exactly what is sent by a rotating beacon with a directional antenna. Such a pulsed signal is, therefore, a good candidate for an extraterrestrial beacon. Software for detecting this signal type is now ready for field testing with the NASA Multichannel Spectrum Analyzer (MCSA).

NASA Discipline Number 52-60↗

Fatigue Crack Growth Threshold Testing of Metallic Rotorcraft Materials

Results are presented for a program to determine the near-threshold fatigue crack growth behavior appropriate for metallic rotorcraft alloys. Four alloys, all commonly used in the manufacture of rotorcraft, were selected for study: Aluminum alloy 7050, 4340 steel, AZ91E Magnesium, and Titanium alloy Ti-6Al-4V (beta-STOA). The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) sponsored this research to advance efforts to incorporate damage tolerance design and analysis as requirements for rotorcraft certification. Rotorcraft components are subjected to high cycle fatigue and are typically subjected to higher stresses and more stress cycles per flight hour than fixed-wing aircraft components. Fatigue lives of rotorcraft components are generally spent initiating small fatigue cracks that propagate slowly under near-threshold cracktip loading conditions. For these components, the fatigue life is very sensitive to the near-threshold characteristics of the material.

Newman, John A.↗

Reliability improvements in tunable Pb1-xSnxSe diode lasers

Recent developments in the technology of Pb-salt diode lasers which have led to significant improvements in reliability and lifetime, and to improved operation at very long wavelengths are described. A combination of packaging and contacting-metallurgy improvements has led to diode lasers that are stable both in terms of temperature cycling and shelf-storage time. Lasers cycled over 500 times between 77 K and 300 K have exhibited no measurable changes in either electrical contact resistance or threshold current. Utilizing metallurgical contacting process, both lasers and experimental n-type and p-type bulk materials are shown to have electrical contact resistance values that are stable for shelf storage periods well in excess of one year. Problems and experiments which have led to devices with improved performance stability are discussed. Stable device configurations achieved for material compositions yielding lasers which operate continuously at wavelengths as long as 30.3 micrometers are described.

Linden, K. J.↗

Cardiopulmonary Responses to Supine Cycling during Short-Arm Centrifugation

The purpose of this study was to investigate cardiopulmonary responses to supine cycling with concomitant +G(sub z) acceleration using the NASA/Ames Human Powered Short-Arm Centrifuge (HPC). Subjects were eight consenting males (32+/-5 yrs, 178+/-5 cm, 86.1+/- 6.2 kg). All subjects completed two maximal exercise tests on the HPC (with and without acceleration) within a three-day period. A two tailed t-test with statistical significance set at p less than or equal to 0.05 was used to compare treatments. Peak acceleration was 3.4+/-0.1 G(sub z), (head to foot acceleration). Peak oxygen uptake (VO2(sub peak) was not different between treatment groups (3.1+/-0.1 Lmin(exp -1) vs. 3.2+/-0.1 Lmin(exp -1) for stationary and acceleration trials, respectively). Peak HR and pulmonary minute ventilation (V(sub E(sub BTPS))) were significantly elevated (p less than or equal to 0.05) for the acceleration trial (182+/-3 BPM (Beats per Minute); 132.0+/-9.0 Lmin(exp -1)) when compared to the stationary trial (175+/-3 BPM; 115.5+/-8.5 Lmin(exp -1)). Ventilatory threshold expressed as a percent of VO2(sub peak) was not different for acceleration and stationary trials (72+/-2% vs. 68+/-2% respectively). Results suggest that 3.4 G(sub z) acceleration does not alter VO2(sub peak) response to supine cycling. However, peak HR and V(sub E(sub BTPS)) response may be increased while ventilatory threshold response expressed as a function of percent VO2(sub peak) is relatively unaffected. Thus, traditional exercise prescription based on VO2 response would be appropriate for this mode of exercise. Prescriptions based on HR response may require modification.

Vener, J. M.↗

Effects of bearing deadbands on bearing loads and rotor stability

A generic model of a turbopump, simplified to bring out these effects is examined. This model demonstrates that bearing deadbands which are of the same order of magnitude or larger than the center-of-mass offset of a rotor due to mass imbalances cause significantly different dynamic behavior than would be expected of a linear, dynamical system. This fundamentally nonlinear behavior yields altered stability characteristics and altered bearing loading tendencies. It is shown that side forces can enhance system stability in the small, i.e., as long as the mass imbalance does not exceed some thresholds value or as long as no large, impulsive disturbances cause the motion to depart significantly from the region of stability. Limit cycles are investigated in this report and techniques for determining these limit cycles are developed. These limit cycles are the major source of bearing loading and appear in both synchronous and nonsynchronous forms. The synchronous limit cycles are driven by rotor imbalances. The nonsynchronous limit cycles (also called subsynchronous whirls) are self-excited and are the sources of instability.

Source record↗