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University of North Dakota citation FIRE Cirrus 2 mission summary and data report

The following document represents a summary overview of the data collected by the University of North Dakota Citation research aircraft during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Cirrus IFO-2. The purpose of this report is to provide a quick-look summary of select parameters to FIRE investigators to assist in the use of this data set. The full data set resides in the FIRE archive. The data presented in this report should be considered preliminary and should not be used for reproduction.

Poellot, Michael R.↗

Preliminary analysis of University of North Dakota aircraft data from the FIRE Cirrus IFO-2

The stated goals of the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) are 'to promote the development of improved cloud and radiation parameterization for use in climate models, and to provide for assessment and improvement of ISCCP projects'. FIRE Phase 2 has focused on the formation, maintenance and dissipation of cirrus and marine stratocumulus cloud systems. These objectives have been approached through a combination of modeling, extended-time observations and intensive field observation (IFO) periods. The work under this grant was associated with the FIRE Cirrus IFO 2. This field measurement program was conducted to obtain observations of cirrus cloud systems on a range of scales from the synoptic to the microscale, utilizing simultaneous measurements from a variety of ground-based, satellite and airborne platforms. By combining these remote and in situ measurements a more complete picture of cirrus systems can be obtained. The role of the University of North Dakota in Phase 2 was three-fold: to collect in situ microphysical data during the Cirrus IFO 2; to process and archive these data; and to collaborate in analyses of IFO data. This report will summarize the activities and findings of the work performed under this grant; detailed description of the data sets available and of the analyses are contained in the Semi-annual Status Reports submitted to NASA.

Poellot, Michael R.↗

Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

FROM↗

An Automated DAKOTA and VULCAN-CFD Framework with Application to Supersonic Facility Nozzle Flowpath Optimization

Removing human interaction from design processes by using automation may lead to gains in both productivity and design precision. This memorandum describes efforts to incorporate high fidelity numerical analysis tools into an automated framework and applying that framework to applications of practical interest. The purpose of this effort was to integrate VULCAN-CFD into an automated, DAKOTA-enabled framework with a proof-of-concept application being the optimization of supersonic test facility nozzles. It was shown that the optimization framework could be deployed on a high performance computing cluster with the flow of information handled effectively to guide the optimization process. Furthermore, the application of the framework to supersonic test facility nozzle flowpath design and optimization was demonstrated using multiple optimization algorithms.

Axdahl, Erik L.↗

Automation of the Uncertainty Quantification Process Based on Probability Boxes with DAKOTA

To date, while the use of CFD is prevalent, very few efforts have been undertaken that truly attempt to document all (or even most) of the sources of uncertainty in the simulations. Instead, the current state-of-the-art relies heavily on the experience of the CFD practitioner to estimate the uncertainty associated with their simulations through simple sensitivity studies or subject matter expertise. This practice will have to be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification (UQ) process if CFD is to play an expanded role in the design research and engineering community, test and evaluation community, and ultimately certification for flight. This is especially true for hypersonic air-breathing propulsion systems due to the environment, scale, and duration limitations of ground test facilities. Accounting for uncertainties in a formal manner is a tedious process. Moreover, the typical CFD practitioner is not likely to be familiar with formal UQ methods. Hence, a major obstacle that has prevented the adoption of UQ methods for engineering design and development work is the lack of a tool set to automate most (if not all) of the UQ workflow. Towards this end, the SANDIA package DAKOTA (which has been developed to drive both UQ and optimization processes) will be tightly wrapped around the VULCAN-CFD code to automate the uncertainty quantification process. The automated process will be applied to an isolator turbulence model validation exercise that has previously been documented using a manual approach to the UQ process. Hence, the focus of this paper will be documenting the level to which automation can hide the UQ process details from the CFD practitioner rather than the UQ method itself.

CFD↗

North Dakota's Clean Energy Jobs Potential Through 2030

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, North Dakota had 491,950 people in its working population (15 to 64 years of age) in 2019. The graphs below show solar photovoltaic (PV), land-based wind, battery energy storage (BES), and energy efficiency job estimates in 2020, 2025, and 2030. These job estimates do not represent net job creation. Rather, they represent the size of the workforce required to achieve projected national deployment levels of each technology for 2025 and 2030 if the state captures the same proportion of jobs in the sector as it did in 2020.

clean energy↗

South Dakota's Clean Energy Jobs Potential Through 2030

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, South Dakota had 549,894 people in its working population (15 to 64 years of age) in 2019. The graphs below show solar photovoltaic (PV), land-based wind, battery energy storage (BES), and energy efficiency job estimates in 2020, 2025, and 2030. These job estimates do not represent net job creation. Rather, they represent the size of the workforce required to achieve projected national deployment levels of each technology for 2025 and 2030 if the state captures the same proportion of jobs in the sector as it did in 2020.

clean energy↗

Rare Earth Extraction and Concentration at Pilot-Scale from North Dakota Coal-Related Feedstocks (Final Technical Report)

The objectives of this project were to design, construct, commission, and operate a pilot-scale system utilizing UND's REE extraction technology from lignite, and complete saleability and economic evaluations of products. The process includes a dilute-acid extraction process from low-rank-coals, followed by selective precipitations and further processing to produce mixed rare earth oxide materials. The pilot was successfully constructed to a 1,000 lb/hr nameplate capacity and tested with over 100 tons of >300-ppm lignite-based feedstocks and produced saleable-quality products during operation. The team successfully attained a TRL status of 6 with the completion and testing of the pilot system, and the technology is poised for demonstration at a commercial scale.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Novel CCS Monitoring of Approved Class VI Storage in North Dakota

Presentation at Dallas Geophysical Society Meeting, Dallas, Texas, April 24, 2025. This high-level overview of focuses on novel and sustainable monitoring methods at various stages of planning or demonstration to accelerate the deployment at future carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) sites.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Growth and survival rates of dispersing free embryos and settled larvae of pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the Missouri River, Montana and North Dakota

We released nearly 1.0 million 1-day post-hatch (dph) and 5-dph pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) free embryos in the Missouri River on 1 July 2019 and sequentially captured survivors at multiple sites through a 240-km river reach to quantify daily growth and survival rates during the early life stages. Genetic analysis was used to assign captured fish to released family lots and known ages. Growth rate was similar (0.74–0.75 mm day –1 ) between the 1- and 5-dph age groups during the 3–4-day dispersal period when water temperature averaged 16.8 °C. Daily survival rate was 0.64 during 1–4 dph for the original 1-dph age group and 0.80 during 5–7 dph for the original 5-dph age group. Total survival during free embryo dispersal (hatch to 9 dph) was estimated as 0.0437. The transition from dispersing as free embryos to settling as benthic larvae was verified for fish originally released as 5 dph. Growth of settled larvae was quantified with a Gompertz model through 75 dph (9 September; 112 mm) when water temperature was 18.8–21.0 °C in the rearing areas. Settled larvae had an estimated daily survival rate of 0.96, and estimated total survival during 9–75 dph was 0.0714. This study provides the first empirical survival estimates for pallid sturgeon early life stages in natural settings and is one of few studies reporting similar information for other sturgeon species. Applications of this work extend to pallid sturgeon restoration programs where population models are being developed to predict recruitment potential and population responses to river management alternatives.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Toward CO 2 Multimeasurement Geophysical Monitoring in the North Dakota CarbonSAFE Project

Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-16), October 23–27, 2022, Lyon, France. Overcoming data acquisition challenges associated with a lake in the study area, electrical infrastructure around the plant, noise from mine activities, complex near-surface conditions associated with reclaimed mine land, high wind speed, and extremely cold temperatures, data processing, modeling, and inversion of the baseline geophysical data demonstrated the importance of high-quality data for a CO 2 geophysical monitoring program. Implementing more advanced data acquisition and processing techniques in future monitoring surveys can further improve confidence in interpretations of geophysical survey data.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Permitting A Coal-Fired 4-MMt/yr CCS Project in North Dakota, USA

Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-16), October 23–27, 2022, Lyon, France. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE Program, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Minnkota Power Cooperative, Inc. (Minnkota), conducted commercial-scale site characterization and permitting of two deep saline formations for the geologic storage of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Captured as part of Minnkota’s Tundra SGS (secure geologic storage) project, these storage horizons would collectively and permanently store an annual average of 4 million metric tons (MMt) of CO 2 .

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016 for the State of North Dakota

This report describes the methodology and results of a state cost-effectiveness analysis of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016. Moving to the Standard 90.1-2016 edition from Standard 90.1-2013 is found to be cost-effective for the state. Annual energy cost savings, added construction costs, and life-cycle costs are all described and presented here for various building types and climate zones.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗