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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Memory-Related Frontal Brainwaves Predict Transition to Mild Cognitive Impairment in Healthy Older Individuals Five Years Before Diagnosis

Background: Early prognosis of high-risk older adults for amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), using noninvasive and sensitive neuromarkers, is key for early prevention of Alzheimer’s disease. We have developed individualized measures in electrophysiological brain signals during working memory that distinguish patients with aMCI from age-matched cognitively intact older individuals. Objective: Here we test longitudinally the prognosis of the baseline neuromarkers for aMCI risk. We hypothesized that the older individuals diagnosed with incident aMCI already have aMCI-like brain signatures years before diagnosis. Methods: Electroencephalogram (EEG) and memory performance were recorded during a working memory task at baseline. The individualized baseline neuromarkers, annual cognitive status, and longitudinal changes in memory recall scores up to 10 years were analyzed. Results: Seven of the 19 cognitively normal older adults were diagnosed with incident aMCI for a median 5.2 years later. The seven converters’ frontal brainwaves were statistically identical to those patients with diagnosed aMCI (n = 14) at baseline. Importantly, the converters’ baseline memory-related brainwaves (reduced mean frontal responses to memory targets) were significantly different from those who remained normal. Furthermore, differentiation pattern of left frontal memory-related responses (targets versus nontargets) was associated with an increased risk hazard of aMCI (HR = 1.47, 95% CI 1.03, 2.08). Conclusion: The memory-related neuromarkers detect MCI-like brain signatures about five years before diagnosis. The individualized frontal neuromarkers index increased MCI risk at baseline. These noninvasive neuromarkers during our Bluegrass memory task have great potential to be used repeatedly for individualized prognosis of MCI risk and progression before clinical diagnosis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Psychosomatic Bias in Low-dose Radiation Epidemiology: Assessing the Role of Radiophobia and Stress in Cancer Incidence

Abstract Historical assessment of radiation effects at low doses (below 0.2 Sv) are generally the result of back extrapolation from higher doses, which are known to have a linear relation between risk and dose. There are multiple counter-examples, and some literature argues that a threshold, nonlinear, or even a beneficial effect (hormeisis) can occur from radiation below these doses. The common theme found in all of these studies stems from the traditional approach of correlating disease rates to stimulus and then effectively curve-fitting the result toward zero dose. What has not been considered in general are the personal stress levels of the exposed individuals due to fear of cancer from low doses. The increased levels of cortisol due to the psychological stress from fear or depression has been shown in the literature to increase cancer probability. The extent to which low-dose exposed individuals were highly fearful or stressed from the radiation exposure would then give rise to elevated cancer based on stress rather than a fundamental radiogenic mechanism. If the population under epidemiological study is aware of a potential historical exposure (no matter how small) and has then lived under stress from fear or depression due to that exposure, the psychosomatic effects will bias the epidemiology accordingly and so should be quantified and accounted for as done with the effects of smoking. Health Phys. 129(0):000-000; 2025

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-dimensional resilience: A quantitative exploration of disease outcomes and economic, political, and social resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic in six countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a need for better understanding of countries’ vulnerability and resilience to not only pandemics but also disasters, climate change, and other systemic shocks. A comprehensive characterization of vulnerability can inform efforts to improve infrastructure and guide disaster response in the future. In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework for studying countries’ vulnerability and resilience to incident disasters across multiple dimensions of society. To illustrate this methodology, we leverage the rich data landscape surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic to characterize observed resilience for several countries (USA, Brazil, India, Sweden, New Zealand, and Israel) as measured by pandemic impacts across a variety of social, economic, and political domains. We also assess how observed responses and outcomes (i.e., resilience) of the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with pre-pandemic characteristics or vulnerabilities, including (1) prior risk for adverse pandemic outcomes due to population density and age and (2) the systems in place prior to the pandemic that may impact the ability to respond to the crisis, including health infrastructure and economic capacity. Our work demonstrates the importance of viewing vulnerability and resilience in a multi-dimensional way, where a country’s resources and outcomes related to vulnerability and resilience can differ dramatically across economic, political, and social domains. This work also highlights key gaps in our current understanding about vulnerability and resilience and a need for data-driven, context-specific assessments of disaster vulnerability in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Epidemiology, Clinical Features, and Outcomes of Coccidioidomycosis, Utah, 2006–2015

On the basis of a 1957 geographic Coccidioides seropositivity survey, 3 counties in southwestern Utah, USA, were considered coccidioidomycosis-endemic, but there has been a paucity of information on the disease burden in Utah since. We report findings from a recent clinical and epidemiologic study of coccidioidomycosis in Utah. To describe clinical characteristics, we identified all coccidioidomycosis cases in an integrated health system in the state during 2006–2015. For epidemiologic analysis, we used cases reported to the Utah Department of Health during 2009–2015. Mean state incidence was 1.83 cases/100,000 population/year. Washington County, in southwestern Utah, had the highest incidence, 17.2 cases/100,000 population/year. In a generalized linear model with time as a fixed effect, mean annual temperature, population, and new construction were associated with regional variations in incidence. Using these variables in a spatiotemporal model, we estimated the adjusted regional variation by county to predict areas where Coccidioides infections might increase.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lipid membrane templated misfolding and self-assembly of intrinsically disordered tau protein

The aggregation of the intrinsically disordered tau protein into highly ordered β-sheet-rich fibrils is implicated in the pathogenesis of a range of neurodegenerative disorders. The mechanism of tau fibrillogenesis remains unresolved, particularly early events that trigger the misfolding and assembly of the otherwise soluble and stable tau. We investigated the role the lipid membrane plays in modulating the aggregation of three tau variants, the largest isoform hTau40, the truncated construct K18, and a hyperphosphorylation-mimicking mutant hTau40/3Epi. Despite being charged and soluble, the tau proteins were also highly surface active and favorably interacted with anionic lipid monolayers at the air/water interface. Membrane binding of tau also led to the formation of a macroscopic, gelatinous layer at the air/water interface, possibly related to tau phase separation. At the molecular level, tau assembled into oligomers composed of ~ 40 proteins misfolded in a β-sheet conformation at the membrane surface, as detected by in situ synchrotron grazing-incidence X-ray diffraction. Concomitantly, membrane morphology and lipid packing became disrupted. Our findings support a general tau aggregation mechanism wherein tau’s inherent surface activity and favorable interactions with anionic lipids drive tau-membrane association, inducing misfolding and self-assembly of the disordered tau into β-sheet-rich oligomers that subsequently seed fibrillation and deposition into diseased tissues.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Specific iron binding to natural sphingomyelin membrane induced by non-specific co-solutes

Sphingomyelin (SPM), a crucial phospholipid in the myelin sheath, plays a vital role in insulating nerve fibers. We hypothesize that iron ions selectively bind to the phosphatidylcholine (PC) template within the SPM membrane under near-physiological conditions, resulting in disruptions to membrane organization. These interactions could potentially contribute to the degradation of the myelin sheath, thereby playing a role in the development of neurodegenerative diseases. We utilized synchrotron-based X-ray spectroscopy and diffraction techniques to study the interaction of iron ions with a bovine spinal-cord SPM monolayer (ML) at the liquid-vapor interface under physiological conditions. The SPM ML serves as a model system, representing localized patches of lipids within a more complex membrane structure. The experiments assessed iron binding to the SPM membrane both in the presence of salts and with additional evaluation of the effects of various ion species on membrane behavior. Grazing incidence X-ray diffraction was employed to analyze the impact of iron binding on the structural integrity of the SPM membrane. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that iron ions in dilute solution selectively bind to the PC template of the SPM membrane exclusively at near-physiological salt concentrations (e.g., NaCl, KCl, KI, or CaCl 2 ) and are pH-dependent. In-significant binding was detected in the absence of these salts or at near-neutral pH with salts. The surface adsorption of iron ions is correlated with salt concentration, reaching saturation at physiological levels. In contrast, multivalent ions such as La 3+ and Ca 2+ do not bind to SPM under similar conditions. Notably, iron binding to the SPM membrane disrupts its in-plane organization, suggesting that these interactions may compromise membrane integrity and contribute to myelin sheath damage associated with neurological disorders.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Proteomic Signatures of Antimicrobial Resistance in Yersinia pestis and Francisella tularensis

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a well-recognized, widespread, and growing issue of concern. With increasing incidence of AMR, the ability to respond quickly to infection with or exposure to an AMR pathogen is critical. Approaches that could accurately and more quickly identify whether a pathogen is AMR also are needed to more rapidly respond to existing and emerging biological threats. We examined proteins associated with paired AMR and antimicrobial susceptible (AMS) strains of Yersinia pestis and Francisella tularensis, causative agents of the diseases plague and tularemia, respectively, to identify whether potential existed to use proteins as signatures of AMR. We found that protein expression was significantly impacted by AMR status. Antimicrobial resistance-conferring proteins were expressed even in the absence of antibiotics in growth media, and the abundance of 10–20% of cellular proteins beyond those that directly confer AMR also were significantly changed in both Y. pestis and F. tularensis. Most strikingly, the abundance of proteins involved in specific metabolic pathways and biological functions was altered in all AMR strains examined, independent of species, resistance mechanism, and affected cellular antimicrobial target. We have identified features that distinguish between AMR and AMS strains, including a subset of features shared across species with different resistance mechanisms, which suggest shared biological signatures of resistance. These features could form the basis of novel approaches to identify AMR phenotypes in unknown strains.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint Analysis of the Epidemic Evolution and Human Mobility During the First Wave of COVID-19 in Spain: Retrospective Study

Background The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive. Objective In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly. Methods We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures. Results Our analysis demonstrated that the pre–national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively. Conclusions Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2022

Image analysis reveals differences in tumor multinucleations in Black and White patients with human papillomavirus‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Background Understanding biological differences between different racial groups of human papillomavirus (HPV)‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients, who have differences in terms of incidence, survival, and tumor morphology, can facilitate accurate prognostic biomarkers, which can help develop personalized treatment strategies. Methods This study evaluated whether there were morphologic differences between HPV‐associated tumors from Black and White patients in terms of multinucleation index (MuNI), an image analysis‐derived metric that measures density of multinucleated tumor cells within epithelial regions on hematoxylin–eosin images and previously has been prognostic in HPV‐associated OPSCC patients. In this study, the authors specifically evaluated whether the same MuNI cutoff that was prognostic of overall survival (OS) and disease‐free survival in their previous study, T TR , is valid for Black and White patients, separately. We also evaluated population‐specific cutoffs, T B for Blacks and T W for Whites, for risk stratification. Results MuNI was statistically significantly different between Black (mean, 3.88e–4; median, 3.67e–04) and White patients (mean, 3.36e–04; median, 2.99e–04), with p = .0078. Using T TR , MuNI was prognostic of OS in the entire population with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.71 ( p = .002; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–2.43) and in White patients with HR of 1.72 ( p = .005; 95% CI, 1.18–2.51). Population‐specific cutoff, T W , yielded improved HR of 1.77 ( p = .003; 95% CI, 1.21–2.58) for White patients, whereas T B did not improve risk‐stratification in Black patients with HR of 0.6 ( p = .3; HR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.2–1.80). Conclusions Histological difference between White and Black patient tumors in terms of multinucleated tumor cells suggests the need for considering population‐specific prognostic biomarkers for personalized risk stratification strategies for HPV‐associated OPSCC patients.

Koyuncu, Can F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Female “Paradox” in Atrial Fibrillation—Role of Left Truncation Due to Competing Risks

Female sex in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a controversial and paradoxical risk factor for stroke—controversial because it increases the risk of stroke only among older women of some ethnicities and paradoxical because it appears to contradict male predominance in cardiovascular diseases. However, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. We conducted simulations to examine the hypothesis that this sex difference is generated non-causally through left truncation due to competing risks (CR) such as coronary artery diseases, which occur more frequently among men than among women and share common unobserved causes with stroke. We modeled the hazards of stroke and CR with correlated heterogeneous risk. We assumed that some people died of CR before AF diagnosis and calculated the hazard ratio of female sex in the left-truncated AF population. In this situation, female sex became a risk factor for stroke in the absence of causal roles. The hazard ratio was attenuated in young populations without left truncation and in populations with low CR and high stroke incidence, which is consistent with real-world observations. This study demonstrated that spurious risk factors can be identified through left truncation due to correlated CR. Female sex in patients with AF may be a paradoxical risk factor for stroke.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tea consumption and risk of bladder cancer in the Bladder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) Study: Pooled analysis of 12 international cohort studies

Tea has been shown to be associated with reduced risk of several diseases including cardiovascular diseases, stroke, metabolic syndrome, and obesity. However, the results on the relationship between tea consumption and bladder cancer are conflicting. This research aimed to assess the association between tea consumption and risk of bladder cancer using a pooled analysis of prospective cohort data. Individual data from 532,949 participants in 12 cohort studies, were pooled for analyses. Cox regression models stratified by study centre was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% CIs. Fractional polynomial regression models were used to examine the dose–response relationship. A higher level of tea consumption was associated with lower risk of bladder cancer incidence (compared with no tea consumption: HR = 0.87, 95% C.I. = 0.77–0.98 for low consumption; HR = 0.86, 95% C.I. = 0.77–0.96 for moderate consumption; HR = 0.84, 95% C.I. = 0.75–0.95 for high consumption). When stratified by sex and smoking status, this reduced risk was statistically significant among men and current and former smokers. In addition, dose–response analyses showed a lower bladder cancer risk with increment of 100 ml of tea consumption per day (HR-increment = 0.97; 95% CI = 0.96–0.98). A similar inverse association was found among males, current and former smokers while never smokers and females showed non-significant results, suggesting potential sex-dependent effect. Higher consumption of tea is associated with reduced risk of bladder cancer with potential interaction with sex and smoking status. Further studies are needed to clarify the mechanisms for a protective effect of tea (e.g. inhibition of the survival and proliferation of cancer cells and anti-inflammatory mechanisms) and its interaction with smoking and sex.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Avirulent Isolates of Penicillium chrysogenum to Control the Blue Mold of Apple Caused by P. expansum

Blue mold is an economically significant postharvest disease of pome fruit that is primarily caused by Penicillium expansum. To manage this disease and sustain product quality, novel decay intervention strategies are needed that also maintain long-term efficacy. Biocontrol organisms and natural products are promising tools for managing postharvest diseases. Here, two Penicillium chrysogenum isolates, 404 and 413, were investigated as potential biocontrol agents against P. expansum in apple. Notably, 404 and 413 were non-pathogenic in apple, yet they grew vigorously in vitro when compared to the highly aggressive P. expansum R19 and Pe21 isolates. Whole-genome sequencing and species-specific barcoding identified both strains as P. chrysogenum. Each P. chrysogenum strain was inoculated in apple with the subsequent co-inoculation of R19 or Pe21 simultaneously, 3, or 7 days after prior inoculation with 404 or 413. The co-inoculation of these isolates showed reduced decay incidence and severity, with the most significant reduction from the longer establishment of P. chrysogenum. In vitro growth showed no antagonism between species, further suggesting competitive niche colonization as the mode of action for decay reduction. Both P. chrysogenum isolates had incomplete patulin gene clusters but tolerated patulin treatment. Finally, hygromycin resistance was observed for both P. chrysogenum isolates, yet they are not multiresistant to apple postharvest fungicides. Overall, we demonstrate the translative potential of P. chrysogenum to serve as an effective biocontrol agent against blue mold decay in apples, pending practical optimization and formulation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enzymatic Biocontrol of Fire Blight ( Erwinia amylovora ) Using an Engineered Glycosyl Hydrolase

Current management of fire blight, caused by Erwinia amylovora , relies heavily on streptomycin a practice that has contributed to the emergence of antibiotic-resistant strains and raised environmental and regulatory concerns. Enzyme-based biocontrol agents offer a promising antibiotic-free approach that combines target specificity with environmental compatibility. This study evaluates CAase, a bacteriophage-derived glycosyl hydrolase, for its ability to disrupt E. amylovora biofilms and reduce disease severity. Biochemical assays and scanning electron microscopy confirmed that CAase efficiently degraded the extracellular polysaccharide (EPS) matrix, releasing cells from biofilms. Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) linkage analysis of EPS isolated from two Erwinia amylovora strains demonstrated that CAase preferentially cleaves galactan-rich amylovoran produced by strain EA273, while exhibiting only limited activity toward the levan-rich EPS from strain EA1430. Functional assays revealed that CAase reduced bacterial viability by nearly 2 orders of magnitude at higher enzyme concentrations, strongly suppressed surface motility, and induced ultrastructural damage visible by transmission electron microscopy. Importantly, field trials showed that CAase significantly lowered blossom and shoot blight incidence under orchard conditions. These results highlight CAase as a potent enzyme-based strategy for reducing the virulence of E. amylovora and demonstrate its potential as a sustainable alternative to antibiotics in fire blight management.

antibiotic resistance↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling hepatitis C micro-elimination among people who inject drugs with direct-acting antivirals in metropolitan Chicago

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of chronic liver disease and mortality worldwide. Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy leads to high cure rates. However, persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at risk for reinfection after cure and may require multiple DAA treatments to reach the World Health Organization’s (WHO) goal of HCV elimination by 2030. Using an agent-based model (ABM) that accounts for the complex interplay of demographic factors, risk behaviors, social networks, and geographic location for HCV transmission among PWID, we examined the combination(s) of DAA enrollment (2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%), adherence (60%, 70%, 80%, 90%) and frequency of DAA treatment courses needed to achieve the WHO’s goal of reducing incident chronic infections by 90% by 2030 among a large population of PWID from Chicago, IL and surrounding suburbs. We also estimated the economic DAA costs associated with each scenario. Our results indicate that a DAA treatment rate of >7.5% per year with 90% adherence results in 75% of enrolled PWID requiring only a single DAA course; however 19% would require 2 courses, 5%, 3 courses and <2%, 4 courses, with an overall DAA cost of $325 million to achieve the WHO goal in metropolitan Chicago. We estimate a 28% increase in the overall DAA cost under low adherence (70%) compared to high adherence (90%). Our modeling results have important public health implications for HCV elimination among U.S. PWID. Using a range of feasible treatment enrollment and adherence rates, we report robust findings supporting the need to address re-exposure and reinfection among PWID to reduce HCV incidence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adaptive Recovery Model: Designing Systems for Testing Tracing and Vaccination to Support COVID-19 Recovery Planning.

This report documents a new approach to designing disease control policies that allocate scarce testing, contact tracing, and vaccination resources to better control community transmission of COVID19 or similar diseases. The Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) combines a deterministic compartmental disease model with a stochastic network disease propagation model to enable us to simulate COVID-19 community spread through the lens of two complementary modeling motifs. ARM contact networks are derived from cell-phone location data that have been anonymized and interpreted as individual arrivals to specic public locations. Modeling disease spread over these networks allows us to identify locations within communities conducive to rapid disease spread. ARM applies this model- and data-derived abstractions of community transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control measures including targeted social distancing, contact tracing, testing and vaccination. The architecture of ARM provides a unique capacity to help decision makers understand how best to deploy scarce testing, tracing and vaccination resources to minimize disease-spread potential in a community. This document details the novel mathematical formulations underlying ARM, presents a dynamical stability analysis of the deterministic model components, a sensitivity analysis of control parameters and network structure, and summarizes a process for deriving contact networks from cell-phone location data. An example use case steps through applying ARM to evaluate three targeted social distancing policies using Bernalillo County, New Mexico as an exemplar test locale. This step-by-step analysis demonstrates how ARM can be used to measure the relative performance of competing public health policies. Initial scenario tests of ARM shows that ARMs design focus on resource utilization rather than simple incidence prediction can provide decision makers with additional quantitative guidance for managing ongoing public health emergencies and planning future responses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electricity consumption variation versus economic structure during COVID-19 on metropolitan statistical areas in the US

The outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in changes in productivity and daily life patterns, and as a result electricity consumption (EC) has also shifted. In this paper, we construct estimates of EC changes at the metropolitan level across the continental U.S., including total EC and residential EC during the initial two months of the pandemic. The total and residential data on the state level were broken down into the county level, and then metropolitan level EC estimates were aggregated from the counties included in each metropolitan statistical area (MSA). This work shows that the reduction in total EC is related to the shares of certain industries in an MSA, whereas regardless of the incidence level or economic structure, the residential sector shows a trend of increasing EC across the continental U.S. Since the MSAs account for 86% of the total population and 87% of the total EC of the continental U.S., the analytical result in this paper can provide important guidelines for future social-economic crises.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Incidence of chronic respiratory conditions among oil spill responders: Five years of follow-up in the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Coast Guard Cohort study

Background: Over ten years after the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill, our understanding of long term respiratory health risks associated with oil spill response exposures is limited. Here we conducted a prospective analysis in a cohort of U.S. Coast Guard personnel with universal military healthcare. Methods: For all active duty cohort members (N = 45,193) in the DWH Oil Spill Coast Guard Cohort Study we obtained medical encounter data from October 01, 2007 to September 30, 2015 (i.e., ~2.5 years pre-spill; ~5.5 years post-spill). We used Cox Proportional Hazards regressions to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR), comparing risks for incident respiratory conditions/symptoms (2010–2015) for: responders vs. non-responders; responders reporting crude oil exposure, any inhalation of crude oil vapors, and being in the vicinity of burning crude oil versus responders without those exposures. We also evaluated self-reported crude oil and oil dispersant exposures, combined. Within-responder comparisons were adjusted for age, sex, and smoking. Results: While elevated aHRs for responder/non-responder comparisons were generally weak, within-responder comparisons showed stronger risks with exposure to crude oil. Notably, for responders reporting exposure to crude oil via inhalation, there were elevated risks for all sinusitis (aHR = 1.48; 95%CI, 1.06–2.06), unspecified chronic sinusitis (aHR = 1.55; 95%CI, 1.08–2.22), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and other allied conditions (aHR = 1.43; 95%CI, 1.00–2.06), and dyspnea and respiratory abnormalities (aHR = 1.29; 95%CI, 1.00–1.67); there was a suggestion of elevated risk for diseases classified as asthma and reactive airway diseases (aHR = 1.18; 95%CI, 0.98–1.41), including the specific condition, asthma (aHR = 1.35; 95%CI, 0.80–2.27), the symptom, shortness of breath (aHR = 1.50; 95%CI, 0.89–2.54), and the overall classification of chronic respiratory conditions (aHR = 1.18; 95%CI, 0.98–1.43). Exposure to both crude oil and dispersant was positively associated with elevated risk for shortness of breath (HR = 2.24; 95%CI, 1.09–4.64). Conclusions: Among active duty Coast Guard personnel, oil spill clean-up exposures were associated with moderately increased risk for longer term respiratory conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Too Good to Be True? Evaluation of Colonoscopy Sensitivity Assumptions Used in Policy Models

Background: Models can help guide colorectal cancer screening policy. Although models are carefully calibrated and validated, there is less scrutiny of assumptions about test performance. Methods: We examined the validity of the CRC-SPIN model and colonoscopy sensitivity assumptions. Standard sensitivity assumptions, consistent with published decision analyses, assume sensitivity equal to 0.75 for diminutive adenomas (<6 mm), 0.85 for small adenomas (6–10 mm), 0.95 for large adenomas (≥10 mm), and 0.95 for preclinical cancer. We also selected adenoma sensitivity that resulted in more accurate predictions. Targets were drawn from the Wheat Bran Fiber study. In the study, we examined how well the model predicted outcomes measured over a three-year follow-up period, including the number of adenomas detected, the size of the largest adenoma detected, and incident colorectal cancer. Results: Using standard sensitivity assumptions, the model predicted adenoma prevalence that was too low (42.5% versus 48.9% observed, with 95% confidence interval 45.3%–50.7%) and detection of too few large adenomas (5.1% versus 14.% observed, with 95% confidence interval 11.8%–17.4%). Predictions were close to targets when we set sensitivities to 0.20 for diminutive adenomas, 0.60 for small adenomas, 0.80 for 10- to 20-mm adenomas, and 0.98 for adenomas 20 mm and larger. Conclusions: Colonoscopy may be less accurate than currently assumed, especially for diminutive adenomas. Alternatively, the CRC-SPIN model may not accurately simulate onset and progression of adenomas in higher-risk populations. Impact: Misspecification of either colonoscopy sensitivity or disease progression in high-risk populations may affect the predicted effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening. When possible, decision analyses used to inform policy should address these uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗