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Heuristic algorithms for design of integrated monitoring of geologic carbon storage sites

Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) is a tool developed under the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) to enhance geologic carbon storage safety and efficiency. Using potential leakage scenarios generated externally by the users preferred history-matching approach, DREAM constructs ideal combinations of sensor locations in the right place at the right time to detect as many leaks as possible, detect them as early as possible, and minimize cost. This user-friendly tool, developed in Java, features a window-based GUI for input and a 3D visualization tool for viewing the domain space and optimized monitoring plans. DREAM's latest version accommodates real-world usage by allowing for joint optimization of wellbore point sensor placements and surface geophysics survey geometries, and by using more efficient multi-objective optimization algorithms. We show an example where, these two improvements combined allow us to support containment assurance and go from detecting 80–90 % of the potential CO 2 leakage to +99.7 %, a step-change improvement that can make the deciding difference in whether a site is suitable for geologic carbon storage. Though developed for geologic carbon storage, this tool would be equally applicable in many surface or offshore environmental monitoring projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

LA17-V-InverseRadTransportProblem-PD2Kb. Final Project Report

In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Conceptual Coordination Bridges Information Processing and Neurophysiology

Information processing theories of memory and skills can be reformulated in terms of how categories are physically and temporally related, a process called conceptual coordination. Dreaming can then be understood as a story understanding process in which two mechanisms found in everyday comprehension are missing: conceiving sequences (chunking categories in time as a categorization) and coordinating across modalities (e.g., relating the sound of a word and the image of its meaning). On this basis, we can readily identify isomorphisms between dream phenomenology and neurophysiology, and explain the function of dreaming as facilitating future coordination of sequential, cross-modal categorization (i.e., REM sleep lowers activation thresholds, "unlearning").

Clancey, William J.↗

How the brain goes out of its mind

Dreaming is characterized by formal visual imagery (akin to hallucination), by inconstancy of time, place and person (akin to disorientation), by a scenario-like knitting together of disparate elements (akin to confabulation) and by an inability to recall (akin to amnesia). Taken together, these four dream features are similar to the delirium of organic brain disease. By studying the brain during rapid-eye-movement (REM) sleep--the phase of sleep in which most dreaming occurs--we can begin to understand its basis in the altered neurophysiology of REM.

Non-NASA Center↗

Validating LES for Jet Aeroacoustics

Engineers charged with making jet aircraft quieter have long dreamed of being able to see exactly how turbulent eddies produce sound and this dream is now coming true with the advent of large eddy simulation (LES). Two obvious challenges remain: validating the LES codes at the resolution required to see the fluid-acoustic coupling, and the interpretation of the massive datasets that result in having dreams come true. This paper primarily addresses the former, the use of advanced experimental techniques such as particle image velocimetry (PIV) and Raman and Rayleigh scattering, to validate the computer codes and procedures used to create LES solutions. It also addresses the latter problem in discussing what are relevant measures critical for aeroacoustics that should be used in validating LES codes. These new diagnostic techniques deliver measurements and flow statistics of increasing sophistication and capability, but what of their accuracy? And what are the measures to be used in validation? This paper argues that the issue of accuracy be addressed by cross-facility and cross-disciplinary examination of modern datasets along with increased reporting of internal quality checks in PIV analysis. Further, it is argued that the appropriate validation metrics for aeroacoustic applications are increasingly complicated statistics that have been shown in aeroacoustic theory to be critical to flow-generated sound.

Bridges, James↗

Use of MODIS Satellite Images and an Atmospheric Dust Transport Model to Evaluate Juniperus spp. Pollen Phenology and Transport

Pollen can be transported great distances. Van de Water et al., 2003 reported Juniperus spp. pollen, a significant aeroallergen was transported 200-600 km. Hence local observations of plant phenology may not be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. Direct detection of pollen via satellite is not practical. A practical alternative combines modeling and phenological observations using ground based sampling and satellite data. The DREAM (Dust REgional Atmospheric Model) is a verified model for atmospheric dust transport modeling using MODIS data products to identify source regions and quantities of dust (Nickovic et al. 2001). The use of satellite data products for studying phenology is well documented (White and Nemani 2006). In the current project MODIS data will provide critical input to the PREAM model providing pollen source location, timing of pollen release, and vegetation type. We are modifying the DREAM model (PREAM - Pollen REgional Atmospheric Model) to incorporate pollen transport. The linkages already exist with DREAM through PHAiRS (Public Health Applications in Remote Sensing) to the public health community. This linkage has the potential to fill this data gap so that the potential association of health effects of pollen can better be tracked for possible linkage with health outcome data which may be associated with asthma, respiratory effects, myocardial infarction, and lost workdays. Juniperus spp. pollen phenology may respond to a wide range of environmental factors such as day length, growing degree-days, precipitation patterns and soil moisture. Species differences are also important. These environmental factors vary over both time and spatial scales. Ground based networks such as the USA National Phenology Network have been established to provide national wide observations of vegetation phenology. However, the density of observers is not adequate to sufficiently document the phenology variability over large regions. Hence the use of satellite data is critical to observe Juniperus spp. pollen phenology. MODIS data was used to observe Juniperus spp. pollen phenology. The MODIS surface reflectance product(MOD09) provided information on the Juniper spp. cone formation and cone density (Fig 1). Ground based observational records of pollen release timing and quantities were used as verification. Techniques developed using MOD09 surface reflectance products will be directly applicable to the next generation sensors such as VIIRS.

Luvall, J. C.↗

Materials and Devices with Probes and Beams: Down to the Atomic Level and Back Up

Richard Feynman famously wrote “What I cannot create, I do not understand.” Areas in which this statement rings especially true are nanoscience, quantum materials, and quantum information systems – whereby control of matter at the atomic level is a necessary step to enable quantum computing devices, single spin systems, and other devices and applications we can only imagine. However, while the dream of atom-by-atom fabrication has been in the minds of the scientific community for a while, the experimental realization of this dream has been slow.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DeepGRN: prediction of transcription factor binding site across cell-types using attention-based deep neural networks

Abstract Background Due to the complexity of the biological systems, the prediction of the potential DNA binding sites for transcription factors remains a difficult problem in computational biology. Genomic DNA sequences and experimental results from parallel sequencing provide available information about the affinity and accessibility of genome and are commonly used features in binding sites prediction. The attention mechanism in deep learning has shown its capability to learn long-range dependencies from sequential data, such as sentences and voices. Until now, no study has applied this approach in binding site inference from massively parallel sequencing data. The successful applications of attention mechanism in similar input contexts motivate us to build and test new methods that can accurately determine the binding sites of transcription factors. Results In this study, we propose a novel tool (named DeepGRN) for transcription factors binding site prediction based on the combination of two components: single attention module and pairwise attention module. The performance of our methods is evaluated on the ENCODE-DREAM in vivo Transcription Factor Binding Site Prediction Challenge datasets. The results show that DeepGRN achieves higher unified scores in 6 of 13 targets than any of the top four methods in the DREAM challenge. We also demonstrate that the attention weights learned by the model are correlated with potential informative inputs, such as DNase-Seq coverage and motifs, which provide possible explanations for the predictive improvements in DeepGRN. Conclusions DeepGRN can automatically and effectively predict transcription factor binding sites from DNA sequences and DNase-Seq coverage. Furthermore, the visualization techniques we developed for the attention modules help to interpret how critical patterns from different types of input features are recognized by our model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hyporheic-zone Processes and Stream Oxygen Dynamics: Insights from a Multiscale Reactive Transport Model: Modeling Archive

This archive contains the data and Python scripts required to reproduce the analyses and figures in the study: Gomez-Velez, J. D., Rathore, S. S., Cohen, M. J., & Painter, S. L. (2025). Hyporheic-zone Processes and Stream Oxygen Dynamics: Insights from a Multiscale Reactive Transport Model. Submitted to Water Resources Research. The analysis utilizes the subgrid model Advection Dispersion Equation with Lagrangian Subgrids (ADELS) implemented in the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS; https://amanzi.github.io/ats/stable/). In this case, the ATS and Amanzi versions are (1) ATS version 1.5.1_f5ba18f8 and (2) Amanzi version 1.6-dev_53444cca4. The repository includes a Jupyter Notebook and the necessary data (Pandas DataFrames stored as pickle files) to generate the figures for the manuscript. Additionally, it contains Python scripts to create ATS input files, run the ATS simulations, and post-process the results. Finally, it provides routines for parameter estimation using the Single-Station Metabolism (SSM) model with the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm with ZS enhancements (DREAM-ZS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

Infinite possibilities: Computational structures technology

Computational Fluid Dynamics (or CFD) methods are very familiar to the research community. Even the general public has had some exposure to CFD images, primarily through the news media. However, very little attention has been paid to CST--Computational Structures Technology. Yet, no important design can be completed without it. During the first half of this century, researchers only dreamed of designing and building structures on a computer. Today their dreams have become practical realities as computational methods are used in all phases of design, fabrication and testing of engineering systems. Increasingly complex structures can now be built in even shorter periods of time. Over the past four decades, computer technology has been developing, and early finite element methods have grown from small in-house programs to numerous commercial software programs. When coupled with advanced computing systems, they help engineers make dramatic leaps in designing and testing concepts. The goals of CST include: predicting how a structure will behave under actual operating conditions; designing and complementing other experiments conducted on a structure; investigating microstructural damage or chaotic, unpredictable behavior; helping material developers in improving material systems; and being a useful tool in design systems optimization and sensitivity techniques. Applying CST to a structure problem requires five steps: (1) observe the specific problem; (2) develop a computational model for numerical simulation; (3) develop and assemble software and hardware for running the codes; (4) post-process and interpret the results; and (5) use the model to analyze and design the actual structure. Researchers in both industry and academia continue to make significant contributions to advance this technology with improvements in software, collaborative computing environments and supercomputing systems. As these environments and systems evolve, computational structures technology will evolve. By using CST in the design and operation of future structures systems, engineers will have a better understanding of how a system responds and lasts, more cost-effective methods of designing and testing models, and improved productivity. For informational and educational purposes, a videotape is being produced using both static and dynamic images from research institutions, software and hardware companies, private individuals, and historical photographs and drawings. The extensive number of CST resources indicates its widespread use. Applications run the gamut from simpler university-simulated problems to those requiring solutions on supercomputers. In some cases, an image or an animation will be mapped onto the actual structure to show the relevance of the computer model to the structure. Transferring the digital files to videotape presents a number of problems related to maintaining the quality of the original image, while still producing a broadcast quality videotape. Since researchers normally do not create a computer image using traditional composition theories or video production requirements, often the image loses some of its original digital quality and impact when transferred to videotape. Although many CST images are currently available, those that are edited into the final project must meet two important criteria: they must complement the narration, and they must be broadcast quality when recorded on videotape.

Beam, Sherilee F.↗

The Science of Computing: Virtual Memory

In the March-April issue, I described how a computer's storage system is organized as a hierarchy consisting of cache, main memory, and secondary memory (e.g., disk). The cache and main memory form a subsystem that functions like main memory but attains speeds approaching cache. What happens if a program and its data are too large for the main memory? This is not a frivolous question. Every generation of computer users has been frustrated by insufficient memory. A new line of computers may have sufficient storage for the computations of its predecessor, but new programs will soon exhaust its capacity. In 1960, a longrange planning committee at MIT dared to dream of a computer with 1 million words of main memory. In 1985, the Cray-2 was delivered with 256 million words. Computational physicists dream of computers with 1 billion words. Computer architects have done an outstanding job of enlarging main memories yet they have never kept up with demand. Only the shortsighted believe they can.

Denning, Peter J.↗

An Open Computing Infrastructure that Facilitates Integrated Product and Process Development from a Decision-Based Perspective

Computer applications for design have evolved rapidly over the past several decades, and significant payoffs are being achieved by organizations through reductions in design cycle times. These applications are overwhelmed by the requirements imposed during complex, open engineering systems design. Organizations are faced with a number of different methodologies, numerous legacy disciplinary tools, and a very large amount of data. Yet they are also faced with few interdisciplinary tools for design collaboration or methods for achieving the revolutionary product designs required to maintain a competitive advantage in the future. These organizations are looking for a software infrastructure that integrates current corporate design practices with newer simulation and solution techniques. Such an infrastructure must be robust to changes in both corporate needs and enabling technologies. In addition, this infrastructure must be user-friendly, modular and scalable. This need is the motivation for the research described in this dissertation. The research is focused on the development of an open computing infrastructure that facilitates product and process design. In addition, this research explicitly deals with human interactions during design through a model that focuses on the role of a designer as that of decision-maker. The research perspective here is taken from that of design as a discipline with a focus on Decision-Based Design, Theory of Languages, Information Science, and Integration Technology. Given this background, a Model of IPPD is developed and implemented along the lines of a traditional experimental procedure: with the steps of establishing context, formalizing a theory, building an apparatus, conducting an experiment, reviewing results, and providing recommendations. Based on this Model, Design Processes and Specification can be explored in a structured and implementable architecture. An architecture for exploring design called DREAMS (Developing Robust Engineering Analysis Models and Specifications) has been developed which supports the activities of both meta-design and actual design execution. This is accomplished through a systematic process which is comprised of the stages of Formulation, Translation, and Evaluation. During this process, elements from a Design Specification are integrated into Design Processes. In addition, a software infrastructure was developed and is called IMAGE (Intelligent Multidisciplinary Aircraft Generation Environment). This represents a virtual apparatus in the Design Experiment conducted in this research. IMAGE is an innovative architecture because it explicitly supports design-related activities. This is accomplished through a GUI driven and Agent-based implementation of DREAMS. A HSCT design has been adopted from the Framework for Interdisciplinary Design Optimization (FIDO) and is implemented in IMAGE. This problem shows how Design Processes and Specification interact in a design system. In addition, the problem utilizes two different solution models concurrently: optimal and satisfying. The satisfying model allows for more design flexibility and allows a designer to maintain design freedom. As a result of following this experimental procedure, this infrastructure is an open system that it is robust to changes in both corporate needs and computer technologies. The development of this infrastructure leads to a number of significant intellectual contributions: 1) A new approach to implementing IPPD with the aid of a computer; 2) A formal Design Experiment; 3) A combined Process and Specification architecture that is language-based; 4) An infrastructure for exploring design; 5) An integration strategy for implementing computer resources; and 6) A seamless modeling language. The need for these contributions is emphasized by the demand by industry and government agencies for the development of these technologies.

Hale, Mark A.↗

STS-114 Crew Interviews: 1. Eileen Collins 2. Wendy Lawrence

1) STS-114 Commander Eileen Collins emphasized her love for teaching, respect for teachers, and her plan to go back to teaching again someday. Her solid background in Math and Science, focus on her interests, with great support from her family, and great training and support during her career with the Air Force gave her confidence in pursuing her dream to become an astronaut. Commander Collins shares her thoughts on the Columbia, details the various flight operations and crew tasks that will take place during the mission and the importance of Shuttle missions to the International Space Station and space exploration. 2) STS-114 Mission Specialist Wendy Lawrence first dreamed of becoming an astronaut when she watched Neil Armstrong walk on the moon from their black and white TV set. She majored in Engineering and became a Navy pilot. She shares her thoughts on the Columbia, details her major role as the crew in charge of all the transfer operations; getting the MPLM unpacked and repacked; and the importance of Shuttle missions to the International Space Station and space exploration.

Source record↗

Learning from Space Entrepreneurs

The early days of rocketry and space exploration in the United States were marked by incredibly rapid progress: a seemingly endless parade of firsts. Not coincidentally, this period also saw more than its fair share of failure, especially in the infamous "kaputnik" days prior to the successful launch of Explorer. Without a standard canon of known quantities to turn to, the early pioneers of rocketry and space flight were forced to dream up new ideas that ranged from the elegant to the bizarre and to accept the fact that the price of radical progress is occasional failure. Nowadays, rapid prototyping and testing have slowed, as we rely more and more on the extensive knowledge pined by our predecessors and on the embarrassment of riches modern engineers get from computational modeling and computer assisted design. In many cases, this leads to much improved or phenomenally more efficient designs. It also, however, fosters a culture so terrified of failure that we over-engineer and overanalyze everything, often tweaking designs for decades before a new system takes flight. (This is not a problem unique to rockets; the same phenomenon seems to have occurred in high-performance jets.) This is one reason why it was possible for President Kennedy to dream of the completion of the Mercury and Gemini missions and a successful landing on the moon in under a decade, while returning to the moon may take nearly twice as long. Lacking access to the tremendous computational resources of the national space program-and, just as importantly, removed from the harsh judgment of public shareholders or congressional appropriations committees-the hungry entrepreneurs who compete for our prizes tend not to display such fear of failure. Instead, most of them follow a rapid "build, test, fly" program. They are willing to throw a handful of concepts against the wall and see what sticks. They often go from drawing on the back of a napkin to firing engines or even flying vehicles in a matter of weeks or months, learning valuable lessons along the way. Indeed, our teams have repeatedly learned many of the most valuable lessons after only a few moments of working with real hardware-lessons that could never have been learned from a CAD drawing, like finding the failure modes of different welding practices or tracking down the interference between an onboard camera and a GPS unit. As Paul Breed, the leader of a Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge team (playfully called Unreasonable Rocket), is fond of saying, "In computer simulations the plumbing never leaks. In real life, it always does."

Pomerantz, William↗

Use of MODIS Satellite Images and an Atmospheric Dust Transport Model to Evaluate Juniperus spp. Pollen Phenology and Dispersal

Pollen can be transported great distances. Van de Water et. al. reported Juniperus spp. pollen was transported 200-600 km. Hence local obse rvations of plant phenology may not be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. The DREAM (Dust REgional Atmospheric Model, Nickovic et al. 2001) is a verified model for atmospheric dust transport modeling using MODIS data produ cts to identify source regions and quantities of dust. We are modifyi ng the DREAM model to incorporate pollen transport. Pollen release wi ll be estimated based on MODIS derived phenology of Juniperus spp. communities. Ground based observations records of pollen release timing and quantities will be used as verification. This information will be used to support the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention?s Nat ional Environmental Public Health Tracking Program and the State of New Mexico environmental public health decision support for asthma and allergies alerts.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

Development of a Multivariable Parametric Cost Analysis for Space-Based Telescopes

Over the past 400 years, the telescope has proven to be a valuable tool in helping humankind understand the Universe around us. The images and data produced by telescopes have revolutionized planetary, solar, stellar, and galactic astronomy and have inspired a wide range of people, from the child who dreams about the images seen on NASA websites to the most highly trained scientist. Like all scientific endeavors, astronomical research must operate within the constraints imposed by budget limitations. Hence the importance of understanding cost: to find the balance between the dreams of scientists and the restrictions of the available budget. By logically analyzing the data we have collected for over thirty different telescopes from more than 200 different sources, statistical methods, such as plotting regressions and residuals, can be used to determine what drives the cost of telescopes to build and use a cost model for space-based telescopes. Previous cost models have focused their attention on ground-based telescopes due to limited data for space telescopes and the larger number and longer history of ground-based astronomy. Due to the increased availability of cost data from recent space-telescope construction, we have been able to produce and begin testing a comprehensive cost model for space telescopes, with guidance from the cost models for ground-based telescopes. By separating the variables that effect cost such as diameter, mass, wavelength, density, data rate, and number of instruments, we advance the goal to better understand the cost drivers of space telescopes.. The use of sophisticated mathematical techniques to improve the accuracy of cost models has the potential to help society make informed decisions about proposed scientific projects. An improved knowledge of cost will allow scientists to get the maximum value returned for the money given and create a harmony between the visions of scientists and the reality of a budget.

Dollinger, Courtnay↗