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DOE OSTI2012

Test Plan - Solids Accumulation Scouting Studies

This plan documents the highlights of the Solids Accumulations Scouting Studies test; a project, from Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS), that began on February 1, 2012. During the last 12 weeks considerable progress has been made to design and plan methods that will be used to estimate the concentration and distribution of heavy fissile solids in accumulated solids in the Hanford double-shell tank (DST) 241-AW-105 (AW-105), which is the primary goal of this task. This DST will be one of the several waste feed delivery staging tanks designated to feed the Pretreatment Facility (PTF) of the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Note that over the length of the waste feed delivery mission AW-105 is currently identified as having the most fill empty cycles of any DST feed tanks, which is the reason for modeling this particular tank. At SRNL an existing test facility, the Mixing Demonstration Tank, which will be modified for the present work, will use stainless steel particles in a simulant that represents Hanford waste to perform mock staging tanks transfers that will allow solids to accumulate in the tank heel. The concentration and location of the mock fissile particles will be measured in these scoping studies to produce information that will be used to better plan larger scaled tests. Included in these studies is a secondary goal of developing measurement methods to accomplish the primary goal. These methods will be evaluated for use in the larger scale experiments. Included in this plan are the several pretest activities that will validate the measurement techniques that are currently in various phases of construction. Aspects of each technique, e.g., particle separations, volume determinations, topographical mapping, and core sampling, have been tested in bench-top trials, as discussed herein, but the actual equipment to be employed during the full test will need evaluation after fabrication and integration into the test facility.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2012

Comparison of Waste Feed Delivery Small Scale Mixing Demonstration Simulant to Hanford Waste

The Hanford double-shell tank (DST) system provides the staging location for waste that will be transferred to the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Specific WTP acceptance criteria for waste feed delivery describe the physical and chemical characteristics of the waste that must be met before the waste is transferred from the DSTs to the WTP. One of the more challenging requirements relates to the sampling and characterization of the undissolved solids (UDS) in a waste feed DST because the waste contains solid particles that settle and their concentration and relative proportion can change during the transfer of the waste in individual batches. A key uncertainty in the waste feed delivery system is the potential variation in UDS transferred in individual batches in comparison to an initial sample used for evaluating the acceptance criteria. To address this uncertainty, a number of small-scale mixing tests have been conducted as part of Washington River Protection Solutions' Small Scale Mixing Demonstration (SSMD) project to determine the performance of the DST mixing and sampling systems. A series of these tests have used a five-part simulant composed of particles of different size and density and designed to be equal or more challenging than AY-102 waste. This five-part simulant, however, has not been compared with the broad range of Hanford waste, and thus there is an additional uncertainty that this simulant may not be as challenging as the most difficult Hanford waste. The purpose of this study is to quantify how the current five-part simulant compares to all of the Hanford sludge waste, and to suggest alternate simulants that could be tested to reduce the uncertainty in applying the current testing results to potentially more challenging wastes.

Hanford Waste↗

DOE OSTI2013

Preliminary Scaling Estimate for Select Small Scale Mixing Demonstration Tests

The Hanford Site double-shell tank (DST) system provides the staging location for waste that will be transferred to the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Specific WTP acceptance criteria for waste feed delivery describe the physical and chemical characteristics of the waste that must be met before the waste is transferred from the DSTs to the WTP. One of the more challenging requirements relates to the sampling and characterization of the undissolved solids (UDS) in a waste feed DST because the waste contains solid particles that settle and their concentration and relative proportion can change during the transfer of the waste in individual batches. A key uncertainty in the waste feed delivery system is the potential variation in UDS transferred in individual batches in comparison to an initial sample used for evaluating the acceptance criteria. To address this uncertainty, a number of small-scale mixing tests have been conducted as part of Washington River Protection Solutions’ Small Scale Mixing Demonstration (SSMD) project to determine the performance of the DST mixing and sampling systems.

Double-shell Tank↗

DOE OSTI2021

System Configuration Evaluation for Process Settling of Hanford Waste Solid Particles

Direct Feed High-Level Waste (DFHLW) is a potential flowsheet operations approach to initiating high-level waste (HLW) vitrification prior to completion of the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Pretreatment Facility. A settle/decant process has been proposed to concentrate solids prior to delivery to the WTP HLW Facility during DFHLW operations, wherein the solids in a settled layer would be remixed with the supernatant liquid remaining after decanting operations to provide the feed at required solids concentrations. Settling would be used in lieu of purpose-built filtration or other solids separation equipment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is providing baseline technical support to the Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) Flowsheet Integration group. To support planning for DFHLW, WRPS previously requested that PNNL evaluate the current data set available to predict the time needed for HLW solids to settle and the solids concentration and strength of that settled layer, to identify gaps in the understanding and predictive capability of HLW solids waste settling times, and to provide scoping estimates of the potential settling times. Eight technical gaps were identified for predicting settling times and characteristics of the formed sediment layers. In addition to the data gaps, an overarching observation was made that there is significant variation in behavior of settling rate and settled layer data. The settling time required to concentrate solids via a settle/decant process was determined from the limited data to have a difference of potentially more than a factor of 5,000 in the estimated settling times, varying from 0.2 to 1,060 days for example depending on process vessel depth and final sediment solids concentration. In contrast, successful processes of liquid-forward output streams resulting from in-tank settling and decanting forward liquid have been reported for operations conducted at the Hanford Site. The purpose of this current report is to further support DFHLW planning by evaluating double-shell tank (DST) and alternate vessel equipment and operational configurations to enable optimization of the settle/decant process to concentrate solids. Hanford waste processing behavior specific to liquid feed availability following a slurry transfer in a DST is summarized, including process stream characteristics and process equipment configurations. The performance of DST process equipment configurations is evaluated for possible improvements using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and simple analytical models. Potential new vessel design(s) specific to enabling effective settle/decant processes, and cursory summary of other separate and inline solids separations processes, are also provided. The CFD results indicated that improvement in outflow solids concentration was promoted by a reduction in the slurry flow rate, angling the distributor nozzles downward, and lifting the transfer pump. The solid-liquid analysis evaluating particle trajectory confirmed that the potential for particle ingestion (in the transfer pump) was decreased with increased radial separation between the inlet and outlet (transfer pump inlet), decreased inlet flow, and decreased liquid density and viscosity for a neutrally buoyant inlet flow. An assessment was also made of the potential for inflow configuration changes to result in the discrete mounding or piling of solids within the tank. Based on the characterization of the settled waste to date, HLW sediments will be unlikely to sustain a substantial angle of repose to facilitate significant variations in the elevation of the settled solids.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2016

PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM STRENGTH FROM INNER HELIOSPHERIC IN SITU OBSERVATIONS

Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B{sub z}. Predicting the strength and duration of B{sub z} inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B{sub z} problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B{sub z}, and resulting disturbance storm time ( Dst ) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX , resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind . Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s{sup −1}; observed: 488 ± 30 km s{sup −1}), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

NLR HPC Kestrel Jobs Data

Overview: Anonymized job-level records from the Kestrel HPC system at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). Each record represents a Slurm batch job with scheduling metadata, resource requests, utilization, energy estimates, and efficiency metrics. Sensitive fields (user, account, job name, submit line, working directory, submit script, and job type) are replaced with 7-character cryptographic hashes. System & Timeframe: Kestrel is located at the NLR campus. Standard compute nodes have 104 cores and 256 GB RAM; bigmem nodes have 2,000 GB. GPU nodes (gpu-h100 partition) use NVIDIA H100 GPUs. Data covers jobs submitted August 2023 through December 2025. Funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, EERE. Files: esif.hpc.kestrel.job-anon.zip — Anonymized job records (Hive-partitioned Parquet) datacard.md — Full dataset documentation ~11 million rows, 50 variables. Readable with PyArrow, pandas, DuckDB, Apache Spark, or any Parquet-compatible tool. Data Collection: Jobs collected via sacct with timezone-aware export (SLURM_TIME_FORMAT="%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S%z"), loaded into PostgreSQL. Calculated columns updated via database triggers and batch functions. All timestamps use timestamptz and correctly handle DST transitions. Preprocessing: Anonymization of name, user, account, submit_line, work_dir, submit_script, and job_type via 7-char hex hashes Derived columns: queue_wait, cpu_eff, max/min/avg_mem_eff, energy estimates Simplified job state mapping (e.g., "CANCELLED by 132357" → "CANCELLED") Boolean flags: python_job, reframe_job Temporal decomposition: year, month, day, day_of_week, hour, minute from submit_time Shared node tracking: shared_job_count, nodes_shared, jobs_shared Key Variables: Scheduling: job_id, partition, state_simple, submit_time, start_time, end_time, queue_wait Resources: nodes_req/used, processors_req/used, memory_req, wallclock_req/used, gpus_requested Efficiency: cpu_eff, max/min/avg_mem_eff Energy: cpu_energy_tdp_estimated_max/used_watt_hours, consumed_energy_raw_joules, consumed_energy_raw_watt_hours Sharing: shared_job_count, nodes_shared, jobs_shared Partitions: short, standard, debug, gpu-h100 Job States: CANCELLED, COMPLETED, FAILED, PENDING, RUNNING QoS Levels: normal, high Important Notes: Timestamps include timezone offsets; DST transitions are handled correctly, though adding intervals across DST boundaries requires offset adjustment shared_job_count reflects physical node co-residency, not use of the shared partition Job step records and raw Slurm JSONB fields are excluded Do not attempt to re-identify individuals from hashed fields

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1973

Magnetospheric field morphology at magnetically quiet times

Review of the magnetospheric morphology, using the method of the Delta B topology, where Delta B is the difference between the observed and a reference field. It is confirmed that Delta B continuously decreases inward to close distances from the earth at all local times. Extrapolating the statistical relation between Dst at the ground and the equatorial Delta B obtained from OGO-5 near perigee, it is shown that Dst is 54 gammas, when Delta B is zero at approximately 2 to 3 earth radii. Conversely, for a magnetically quiet condition as defined by Dst = 0, the average equatorial Delta B at these distances is -45 gammas. These results demonstrate the significance of the effects of the magnetospheric equatorial current that exists even at quiet times. A preliminary study of inclination shows that the field lines on the dusk side are more stretched out than on the dawn side. A comparison of declination on both sides indicates that the bending of the field lines toward the tail is greater near dusk than near dawn. These results suggest an appreciable dawn-dusk asymmetry in the configuration of the inner magnetospheric field.

Sugiura, M.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Solar generated quasi-biennial geomagnetic variation

The existence of highly correlated quasi-biennial variations in the geomagnetic field and in solar activity is demonstrated. The analysis uses a numerical filter technique applied to monthly averages of the geomagnetic horizontal component and of the Zurich relative sunspot number. Striking correlations are found between the quasi-biennial geomagnetic variations determined from several magnetic observatories located at widely different longitudes, indicating a worldwide nature of the obtained variation. The correlation coefficient between the filtered Dst index and the filtered relative sunspot number is found to be -0.79 at confidence level greater than 99% with a time-lag of 4 months, with solar activity preceding the Dst variation. The correlation between the unfiltered data of Dst and of the sunspot number is also high with a similar time-lag. Such a timelag has not been discussed in the literature, and a further study is required to establish the mode of sun-earth relationship that gives this time delay.

Sugiura, M.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Solar-generated quasi-biennial geomagnetic variation

The existence of highly correlated quasi-biennial variations in the geomagnetic field and in solar activity is demonstrated. The analysis uses a numerical filter technique applied to monthly averages of the geomagnetic horizontal component and of the Zurich relative sunspot number. Striking correlations are found between the quasi-biennial geomagnetic variations determined from several magnetic observatories located at widely different longitudes, indicating the worldwide nature of the obtained variation. The correlation coefficient between the filtered Dst index and the filtered relative sunspot number is found to be -0.79 at confidence level greater than 99% with a time lag of 4 months, solar activity preceding the Dst variation. The correlation between the unfiltered data of Dst and those of the sunspot number is also high with a similar time lag. Such a time lag has not been discussed in the literature, and a further study is required to establish the mode of sun-earth relationship that gives this time delay.

Sugiura, M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Low-latitude particle precipitation and associated local magnetic disturbances

The paper investigates the O(+) ion and NO(+) ion temperature and temperature anisotropy for a spatially homogeneous auroral F region in the presence of large electric fields perpendicular to the geomagnetic field. The maximum optical emissions at midlatitudes occur in concert with the maximum positive (northward) excursions in the H trace and with rapid fluctuations in the D trace of nearby magnetograms. The source of the particles is inferred to be the ring current, with precipitation occurring when the Dst index is large at the time of the large short-term excursions in the local magnetic field. This result is consistent with the finding of Voss and Smith (1979), derived from a series of rocket measurements of precipitating heavy particles, that the flux correlates better with the product of Dst and the exponential of Kp than with either alone. It is shown that the product of Dst and the amplitude of the short-term excursions in the horizontal component in local magnetograms has better time resolution and better correlation with the observed emission rates than the index using Kp.

Rassoul, H. K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Application of fuzzy set and Dempster-Shafer theory to organic geochemistry interpretation

An application of fuzzy sets and Dempster Shafter Theory (DST) in modeling the interpretational process of organic geochemistry data for predicting the level of maturities of oil and source rock samples is presented. This was accomplished by (1) representing linguistic imprecision and imprecision associated with experience by a fuzzy set theory, (2) capturing the probabilistic nature of imperfect evidences by a DST, and (3) combining multiple evidences by utilizing John Yen's generalized Dempster-Shafter Theory (GDST), which allows DST to deal with fuzzy information. The current prototype provides collective beliefs on the predicted levels of maturity by combining multiple evidences through GDST's rule of combination.

Kim, C. S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Simulations of phase space distributions of storm time proton ring current

We use results of guiding-center simulations of ion transport to map phase space densities of the stormtime proton ring current. We model a storm as a sequence of substorm-associated enhancements in the convection electric field. Our pre-storm phase space distribution is an analytical solution to a steady-state transport model in which quiet-time radial diffusion balances charge exchange. This pre-storm phase space spectra at L approximately 2 to 4 reproduce many of the features found in observed quiet-time spectra. Using results from simulations of ion transport during model storms having main phases of 3, 6, and 12 hr, we map phase space distributions from the pre-storm distribution in accordance with Liouville's theorem. We find stormtime enhancements in the phase space densities at energies E approximately 30-160 keV for L approximately 2.5 to 4. These enhancements agree well with the observed stormtime ring current. For storms with shorter main phases (approximately 3 hr), the enhancements are caused mainly by the trapping of ions injected from open night side trajectories, and diffusive transport of higher-energy (greater than or approximately 160 keV) ions contributes little to the stormtime ring current. However, the stormtime ring current is augmented also by the diffusive transport of higher-energy ions (E greater than or approximately 160 keV) durinng stroms having longer main phases (greater than or approximately 6 hr). In order to account for the increase in Dst associated with the formation of the stormtime ring current, we estimate the enhancement in particle-energy content that results from stormtime ion transport in the equatorial magnetosphere. We find that transport alone cannot account for the entire increase in absolute value of Dst typical of a major storm. However, we can account for the entire increase in absolute value of Dst by realistically increasing the stormtime outer boundary value of the phase space density relative to the quiet-time value. We compute the magnetic field produced by the ring current itself and find that radial profiles of the magnetic field depression resemble those obtained from observational data.

Chen, Margaret W.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tail Lobe Revisited: Magnetic Field Modeling Based on Plasma Data

Plasma data from the ISEE-1 and -2 spacecraft during 1977-1980 have been used to determine the distribution of data points in the magnetotail in the range of distances -20 < XGSM < --15, i.e. which of the records that were located in the current sheet, in the tail lobe, in the magnetosheath and in the boundary layers respectively. The ISEE-1 and -2 magnetic field data for the records in the tail lobe were then used to model the tail lobe magnetic field dependence on the solar wind dynamic pressure, on the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) and on the Dst index. The tail lobe magnetic field was assumed to be dependent on the square root of the dynamic pressure based on the balance between the total magnetic pressure in the tail lobes and the dynamic pressure of the solar wind. The IMF dependent terms, added to the pressure term, were sought in many different forms while the Dst dependence of the tail lobe magnetic field was assumed to be linear. The field shows a strong dependence on the square root of the dynamic pressure and the different IMF dependent terms all constitute a significant contribution to the total field. However, the dependence on the Dst index turned out to be very weak at those down-tail distances. The results of this study are intended to be used for parameterizing future versions of the data-based models of the global magnetospheric magnetic field.

Karlsson, S. B. P.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Preliminary Design and Evaluation of Portable Electronic Flight Progress Strips

There has been growing interest in using electronic alternatives to the paper Flight Progress Strip (FPS) for air traffic control. However, most research has been centered on radar-based control environments, and has not considered the unique operational needs of the airport air traffic control tower. Based on an analysis of the human factors issues for control tower Decision Support Tool (DST) interfaces, a requirement has been identified for an interaction mechanism which replicates the advantages of the paper FPS (e.g., head-up operation, portability) but also enables input and output with DSTs. An approach has been developed which uses a Portable Electronic FPS that has attributes of both a paper strip and an electronic strip. The prototype flight strip system uses Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) to replace individual paper strips in addition to a central management interface which is displayed on a desktop computer. Each PDA is connected to the management interface via a wireless local area network. The Portable Electronic FPSs replicate the core functionality of paper flight strips and have additional features which provide a heads-up interface to a DST. A departure DST is used as a motivating example. The central management interface is used for aircraft scheduling and sequencing and provides an overview of airport departure operations. This paper will present the design of the Portable Electronic FPS system as well as preliminary evaluation results.

Doble, Nathan A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

En route Spacing Tool: Efficient Conflict-free Spacing to Flow-Restricted Airspace

This paper describes the Air Traffic Management (ATM) problem within the U.S. of flow-restricted en route airspace, an assessment of its impact on airspace users, and a set of near-term tools and procedures to resolve the problem. The FAA is committed, over the next few years, to deploy the first generation of modem ATM decision support tool (DST) technology under the Free-Flight Phase-1 (FFp1) program. The associated en route tools include the User Request Evaluation Tool (URET) and the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). URET is an initial conflict probe (ICP) capability that assists controllers with the detection and resolution of conflicts in en route airspace. TMA orchestrates arrivals transitioning into high-density terminal airspace by providing controllers with scheduled times of arrival (STA) and delay feedback advisories to assist with STA conformance. However, these FFPl capabilities do not mitigate the en route Miles-In-Trail (MIT) restrictions that are dynamically applied to mitigate airspace congestion. National statistics indicate that en route facilities (Centers) apply Miles-In-Trail (MIT) restrictions for approximately 5000 hours per month. Based on results from this study, an estimated 45,000 flights are impacted by these restrictions each month. Current-day practices for implementing these restrictions result in additional controller workload and an economic impact of which the fuel penalty alone may approach several hundred dollars per flight. To mitigate much of the impact of these restrictions on users and controller workload, a DST and procedures are presented. The DST is based on a simple derivative of FFP1 technology that is designed to introduce a set of simple tools for flow-rate (spacing) conformance and integrate them with conflict-probe capabilities. The tool and associated algorithms are described based on a concept prototype implemented within the CTAS baseline in 1995. A traffic scenario is used to illustrate the controller's use of the tool, and potential display options are presented for future controller evaluation.

Green, S.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Problem Definition and Solution Concept for En Route Constrained Airspace Problems

NASA's AATT Program is investigating potential ground-based decision support tool (DST) development for en route controllers and managers. NASA's previous work in en route DST development has focused on Transition airspace, where aircraft are impacted by constraints associated with the transition of aircraft from en route to terminal airspace. This paper investigates the problems associated with aircraft in non-transitional en route airspace, termed Constrained Airspace. A literature search was performed to catalog previously identified constrained airspace problems. The results of this search were investigated with industry representatives to validate these problems were significant in constrained airspace. Three general problem areas were identified. The first problem area involves negative impacts caused by a loss of airspace (e.g., activation of Special Use Airspace (SUA), weather cell formation, and overloaded sectors). The second problem area is the lack of identifying and taking advantage of gained airspace (e.g., SUA deactivation, weather dissipation, and sector loading reductions). The third problem area is unforeseen negative impacts caused by the acceptance of user routing requests (e.g., a route change into an area of congestion that negated the users intended benefit). Based upon the problems identified, an operational concept was developed for a DST to help handle these problems efficiently. The goal is to strategically identify constrained airspace problems and to provide functionality to support ARTCC TMUs in resolving the identified impacts. The capability lends itself well to TMU and Airline Operations Center (AOC) collaboration.

Green, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2006

Flight Data Update on Long-Term Compound Stability in Dual Sorbent Tubes

Dual Sorbent Tubes (DSTs) are currently the primary method for collecting volatile organic compounds in the cabin air of the International Space Station (ISS). Data from groundbased analysis of these archival air samplers provide a major component of the assessment of ISS air quality by the NASA toxicologist. At the 2005 ICES conference data from the positive control DSTs, returned on Soyuz 7S and 8S, were presented. Positive control tubes are dosed, preflight, with known concentrations of representative contaminant compounds and they are launched to ISS in the DST kit as trip controls. Upon return of the DST kit to the ground, results from analysis of the trip (positive) and laboratory control tubes are used to determine the recoveries: concentration of dosed compounds retained in the tube. Results from positive controls, returned on 7S and 8S showed substantial losses of some compounds dosed into the tubes 156 to 240 days prior to the analysis. Low recoveries are expected for spacecraft air contaminants with similar properties to the poorly recovered dosed compounds. It was shown that compound losses in the control tubes were consistent, which led to the generation of acceptable correction factors for spacecraft air contaminants. Correction factors decrease the accuracy of derived compound concentrations and substantial error could arise under some conditions. An investigation into the mechanism for compound loss is necessary before design modifications can be implemented to improve the DST performance. This paper will update results from the DSTs returned on Soyuz 9S and 10S missions during the latter part of 2005. The data acquired from these returned DSTs will be compared to the 7S and 8S data presented last year. Discussion will focus on the reliability of correction factors and identify any trends in the data. This paper will describe the experimental design and plans to identify the compound loss mechanism.

James, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

[Space Weather Impact on the Electricity Market]

Forbes & St. Cyr (2004, hereafter "FISC") have provided evidence that the electricity market can be impacted by space weather. Our analysis indicated that the estimated market impact for PJM was 3.7 % or approximately $500 million dollars over the 19 month sample period. Kappenman has taken exception to this estimate and contends that we have exaggerated the magnitude of the problem that space weather poses to PJM. There are four specific issues: (1) he claims that we have ignored relevant literature; (2) he asserts that Dst is not an appropriate proxy for GICs in PJM; (3) he charges that our findings are inconsistent with the impact of the 17 September 2000 storm; and (4) he alleges that our discussion of October 2003 storms is misleading. In our article, we have explained our methodology, multivariate regression analysis, with a particular focus on how it compares to correlation analysis. We have also explained the limitations of our analysis. We noted that "...While the Dstlprice relationship was found to be robust, the precise estimate should be treated with a relatively high degree of caution given that econometric modeling is not an exact science as well as the fact that the measure of space weather may be a poor proxy for GICs" (paragraph 96). We have also noted that additional research using local magnetometer data are needed (paragraph 97). We did not claim that that our findings for PJM are representative of the impact of space weather on other power grids. On the contrary, we noted that ... "Only analysis of other power grids will tell. " (paragraph 97). Kappenman inaccurately asserts that we have indicated that our findings . . . "imply much higher total costs are likely across the US and elsewhere in the world." He also inaccurately asserts that we have claimed that " . . . Dst is the most suited proxy for GIC in the PJM grid.. ." Moreover, he inaccurately refers to our analysis as a correlation study that uses Dst as quasi-binary indicator.

SaintCyr, O. Chris↗