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NASA NTRS2003

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Richon, K.↗

NASA NTRS1987

The resistances of the photosphere and of a flaring coronal loop

Two aspects of solar flares are considered from the point of view of circuit theory. First, it is shown that the so-called 'dynamo models', which invoke an analogy between the earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere circuit and the solar corona-photosphere circuit, are ill-founded. Second, the rate of coronal energy release in the impulsive phase of a modest flare is considered, and it is shown that, if the energy going into mass motion can be neglected, the corona must present a resistance of about 0.001 ohm. Classical resistivity, even in a highly filamented circuit, cannot provide so high a resistance. Anomalous resistivity due to ion sound turbulence can provide the required resistance in this case, but is insufficient to explain the very high power levels inferred in some fast spikes.

Melrose, D. B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Chandra Observations of a Young Embedded Magnetic B Star in the p Ophiuchus Cloud

This paper reports the analysis of two Chandra X-ray observations of the young magnetic B star rho Ophiuchus S1. X-ray emission from the star was detected in both observations. The average flux is almost the same in both, but during each observation the flux shows significant time variations by a factor of two on timescales of 20-40 ksec. Each spectrum can be fit by either an absorbed power law model with a photon index of approx. -3 or a thin-thermal plasma model with a temperature of approx. 2 keV and an extremely low metal abundance (approx. less than 0.1 solar). The spectrum of the first observation has an apparent line feature at about 6.8 keV, which likely corresponds to highly ionized iron K alpha. In contrast, the spectrum of the second observation shows an anomalous edge absorption component at E approx. 1 keV. The continuum emission and log (L(sub X)/L(sub bol)) approx. -6 are similar to those of young intermediate-mass stars (Herbig Ae/Be stars) although the presence of the magnetic field inferred from the detection of non-thermal radio emission has drawn an analogy between rho Ophiuchus S1 and magnetic chemically peculiar (MCP) stars. If the X-ray emission is thermal, the highest plasma temperature observed is too high to be explained by the conventional theories of magnetic stars, and favors some kind of magnetic dynamo activity, while if the emission is nonthermal, it might be related to mass infall. The 6.8 keV line and 4 keV edge features are marginal but they give important information near the stellar body if they are real. Their physical interpretation is discussed.

Hamaguchi, Kenji↗

NASA NTRS1985

Theory Tested by Means of the Stars

The viability of the solar alpha-omega dynamo model was studied through examination of extreme stellar cases expected to show specific types of deviation from solar behavior. Observational data was taken from studies of main sequence stars with shallow convective zones, fully convective M-dwarfs, and a Pleiades X-ray survey.

Golub, L.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Jupiter's outer atmosphere.

The current state of the theory of Jupiter's outer atmosphere is briefly reviewed. The similarities and dissimilarities between the terrestrial and Jovian upper atmospheres are discussed, including the interaction of the solar wind with the planetary magnetic fields. Estimates of Jovian parameters are given, including magnetosphere and auroral zone sizes, ionospheric conductivity, energy inputs, and solar wind parameters at Jupiter. The influence of the large centrifugal force on the cold plasma distribution is considered. The Jovian Van Allen belt is attributed to solar wind particles diffused in toward the planet by dynamo electric fields from ionospheric neutral winds, and the consequences of this theory are indicated.

Brice, N. M.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Magnetic dynamo action in two-dimensional turbulent magneto-hydrodynamics

Two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic turbulence is explored by means of numerical simulation. Previous analytical theory, based on non-dissipative constants of the motion in a truncated Fourier representation, is verified by following the evolution of highly non-equilibrium initial conditions numerically. Dynamo action (conversion of a significant fraction of turbulent kinetic energy into long-wavelength magnetic field energy) is observed. It is conjectured that in the presence of dissipation and external forcing, a dual cascade will be observed for zero-helicity situations. Energy will cascade to higher wave numbers simultaneously with a cascade of mean square vector potential to lower wave numbers, leading to an omni-directional magnetic energy spectrum which varies as 1/k 3 at lower wave numbers, simultaneously with a buildup of magnetic excitation at the lowest wave number of the system. Equipartition of kinetic and magnetic energies is expected at the highest wave numbers in the system.

Fyfe, D.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Magnetic dynamo action in two-dimensional turbulent magneto-hydrodynamics

Two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic turbulence is explored by means of numerical simulation. Previous analytical theory, based on non-dissipative constants of the motion in a truncated Fourier representation, is verified by following the evolution of highly non-equilibrium initial conditions numerically. Dynamo action (conversion of a significant fraction of turbulent kinetic energy into long-wavelength magnetic field energy) is observed. It is conjectured that in the presence of dissipation and external forcing, a dual cascade will be observed for zero-helicity situations. Energy will cascade to higher wavenumbers simultaneously with a cascade of mean square vector potential to lower wavenumbers, leading to an omni-directional magnetic energy spectrum.

Fyfe, D.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Chandra Observations of Magnetic White Dwarfs and Their Theoretical Implications

Observations of cool DA and DB white dwarfs have not yet been successful in detecting coronal X-ray emission but observations of late-type dwarfs and giants show that coronae are common for these stars. To produce coronal X-rays, a star must have dynamo-generated surface magnetic fields and a well-developed convection zone. There is strong observational evidence that the DA star LHS 1038 and the DB star GD 358 have weak and variable surface magnetic fields. Since these fields are likely to be generated by dynamo action and since both stars have well-developed convection zones, theory predicts detectable levels of coronal X-rays from these white dwarfs. However, we present analysis of Chandra observations of both stars showing no detectable X-ray emission. The derived upper limits for the X-ray fluxes provide strong constraints on theories of formation of coronae around magnetic white dwarfs.

Musielak, Z. E.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Chandra Observations of Magnetic White Dwarfs and their Theoretical Implications

Observations of cool DA and DB white dwarfs have not yet been successful in detecting coronal X-ray emission, but observations of late-type dwarfs and giants show that coronae are common for these stars. To produce coronal X-rays, a star must have dynamo-generated surface magnetic fields and a well-developed convection zone. There is some observational evidence that the DA star LHS 1038 and the DB star GD 358 have weak and variable surface magnetic fields. It has been suggested that such fields can be generated by dynamo action, and since both stars have well-developed convection zones, theory predicts detectable levels of coronal X-rays from these white dwarfs. However, we present analysis of Chandra observations of both stars showing no detectable X-ray emission. The derived upper limits for the X-ray fluxes provide strong constraints on theories of formation of coronae around magnetic white dwarfs. Another important implication of our negative Chandra observations is the possibility that the magnetic fields of LHS 1038 and GD 358 are fossil fields.

Musielak, Z. E.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Theories for the origin of lunar magnetism

This paper reviews the major theories which have been proposed to explain the remanent magnetism found in the lunar crust. A total of nine different mechanisms for lunar magnetism are discussed and evaluated in light of the theoretical and experimental constraints pertinent to lunar magnetism. It is concluded that none of these theories in their present state of development satisfy all the known constraints. However, the theories which agree best with the present understanding of the moon are meteorite impact magnetization, thermoelectric dynamo field generation, and an early solar wind field.

Daily, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Broken Ergodicity in MHD Turbulence

Ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence may be represented by finite Fourier series, where the inherent periodic box serves as a surrogate for a bounded astrophysical plasma. Independent Fourier coefficients form a canonical ensemble described by a Gaussian probability density function containing a Hermitian covariance matrix with positive eigenvalues. The eigenvalues at lowest wave number can be very small, resulting in a large-scale coherent structure: a turbulent dynamo. This is seen in computations and a theoretical explanation in terms of 'broken ergodicity' contains Taylor s theory of force-free states. An important problem for future work is the case of real, i.e., dissipative flows. In real flows, broken ergodicity and coherent structure are still expected to occur in MHD turbulence at the largest scale, as suggested by low resolution simulations. One challenge is to incorporate coherent structure at the largest scale into the theory of turbulent fluctuations at smaller scales.

Shebalin, John V.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Effect of Rotating a Faraday Disc Perpendicular to an Applied Magnetic Field Theory and Experiment

A magnetohydrodynamic model that examines the effect of rotating an electrically conducting cylinder with a uniform external magnetic field applied orthogonal to its axis is presented. Noting a simple geometry, it can be classified as a fundamental dynamo problem. For the case of an infinitely long cylinder, an analytical solution is obtained and analyzed in detail. A semi-analytical model was developed that considers a finite cylinder. Experimental data from a spinning brass wheel in the presence of Earth's magnetic field were compared to the proposed theory and found to fit well.

Mazuruk, Konstantin↗

NASA NTRS1961

Theory of Electrostatic Fields in the Ionosphere at Equatorial Latitudes

The properties of the elongated electrostatic fields that are required to provide the coupling mechanism in the dynamo-motor concept of the E and F regions of the ionosphere are examined theoretically for the conditions that prevail in equatorial latitudes. The analysis is developed for an electrostatic field of arbitrary horizontal scale in a horizontally stratified partly ionized gas subject to an imposed magnetic field having the form of a parabolic arch over the equator. The anisotropic character and continuous variation with height of the conductivity are retained throughout , and numerical solutions are determined for the attenuation of the electric field with distance along the field line. The results are similar qualitatively to those found previously upon analysis of the corresponding problem for middle latitudes, but the attenuation of the electrostatic field with height is considerably greater. It develops, in particular, that the coupling between E and F regions is very small for fields having horizontal wavelengths of a few kilometers. It follows that the dynamo-motor concept could not be used to account for the presence of irregularities of this scale. On the other hand, it is found that almost all the attenuation occurs at heights near that of the E region. If an electrostatic field having a horizontal wavelength of a few kilometers could be produced at heights of, say 200 km or greater, it follows that it would be very elongated and extend with little change in amplitude from hemisphere to hemisphere. The results also indicate that effective coupling could be achieved for fields having horizontal wavelengths of the order of tens of kilometers, but the assumptions introduced to simplify the analysis may impair the quantitative reliability of the results for fields of this scale.

Briggs, Benjamin R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Evolution of protoplanetary disks with dynamo magnetic fields

The notion that planetary systems are formed within dusty disks is certainly not a new one; the modern planet formation paradigm is based on suggestions made by Laplace more than 200 years ago. More recently, the foundations of accretion disk theory where initially developed with this problem in mind, and in the last decade astronomical observations have indicated that many young stars have disks around them. Such observations support the generally accepted model of a viscous Keplerian accretion disk for the early stages of planetary system formation. However, one of the major uncertainties remaining in understanding the dynamical evolution of protoplanetary disks is the mechanism responsible for the transport of angular momentum and subsequent mass accretion through the disk. This is a fundamental piece of the planetary system genesis problem since such mechanisms will determine the environment in which planets are formed. Among the mechanisms suggested for this effect is the Maxwell stress associated with a magnetic field treading the disk. Due to the low internal temperatures through most of the disk, even the question of the existence of a magnetic field must be seriously studied before including magnetic effects in the disk dynamics. On the other hand, from meteoritic evidence it is believed that magnetic fields of significant magnitude existed in the earliest, PP-disk-like, stage of our own solar system's evolution. Hence, the hypothesis that PP disks are magnetized is not made solely on the basis of theory. Previous studies have addressed the problem of the existence of a magnetic field in a steady-state disk and have found that the low conductivity results in a fast diffusion of the magnetic field on timescales much shorter than the evolutionary timescale. Hence the only way for a magnetic field to exist in PP disks for a considerable portion of their lifetimes is for it to be continuously regenerated. In the present work, we present results on the self-consistent evolution of a turbulent PP disk including the effects of a dynamo-generated magnetic field.

Reyes-Ruiz, M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Physics-Based Approach to Predict the Solar Activity Cycles

Observations of the complex highly non-linear dynamics of global turbulent flows and magnetic fields are currently available only from Earth-side observations. Recent progress in helioseismology has provided us some additional information about the subsurface dynamics, but its relation to the magnetic field evolution is not yet understood. These limitations cause uncertainties that are difficult take into account, and perform proper calibration of dynamo models. The current dynamo models have also uncertainties due to the complicated turbulent physics of magnetic field generation, transport and dissipation. Because of the uncertainties in both observations and theory, the data assimilation approach is natural way for the solar cycle prediction and estimating uncertainties of this prediction. I will discuss the prediction results for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 and their uncertainties and affect of Ensemble Kalman Filter parameters to resulting predictions.

Physics-Based↗

NASA NTRS1993

Magnetic fields and nonuniform structures of the Moon

Direct magnetic measurements performed by space probes demonstrated the existence of small-scale, stationary surface magnetic fields on the Moon. The magnetic field averaged over a region of approximately 600 km was found to be no larger than approximately 10(exp -5) G, that of the regions approximately 100-200 km is approximately 10(exp -5) to 10(exp -4) G, and that of approximately 10-100 km reaches approximately 10(exp -3) G. Investigations of certain lunar rocks reveal stable residual magnetization, which could have been acquired during the crystallization of the rocks in the presence of the outer magnetic field, provided such a field existed at the initial stage of lunar evolution. Estimates show that 4 x 10(exp 9) yr ago the field was small, then it rose to approximately 1.3 G at the beginning of 3.9 x 10(exp 9) yr with a subsequent exponential decrease during the period of 3.9 x 10(exp 9) yr to 3.2 x 10(exp 9) yr ago. Small-scale fields have been explained by some authors as due to mechanical impacts produced by meteors. The theory of this effect is not elaborated in detail. This can in no way explain the paleomagnetic data. These data are commonly explained as a result of the dynamo action in the liquid lunar core.

Dolginov, A. Z.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Structure and Rotation of the Solar Interior: Initial Results from the MDI Medium-L Program

The medium-l program of the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on board SOHO provides continuous observations of oscillation modes of angular degree, l, from 0 to approximately 300. The data for the program are partly processed on board because only about 3% of MDI observations can be transmitted continuously to the ground. The on-board data processing, the main component of which is Gaussian-weighted binning, has been optimized to reduce the negative influence of spatial aliasing of the high-degree oscillation modes. The data processing is completed in a data analysis pipeline at the SOI Stanford Support Center to determine the mean multiplet frequencies and splitting coefficients. The initial results show that the noise in the medium-l oscillation power spectrum is substantially lower than in ground-based measurements. This enables us to detect lower amplitude modes and, thus, to extend the range of measured mode frequencies. This is important for inferring the Sun's internal structure and rotation. The MDI observations also reveal the asymmetry of oscillation spectral lines. The line asymmetries agree with the theory of mode excitation by acoustic sources localized in the upper convective boundary layer. The sound-speed profile inferred from the mean frequencies gives evidence for a sharp variation at the edge of the energy-generating core. The results also confirm the previous finding by the GONG (Gough et al., 1996) that, in a thin layer just beneath the convection zone, helium appears to be less abundant than predicted by theory. Inverting the multiplet frequency splittings from MDI, we detect significant rotational shear in this thin layer. This layer is likely to be the place where the solar dynamo operates. In order to understand how the Sun works, it is extremely important to observe the evolution of this transition layer throughout the 11-year activity cycle.

Kosovichev, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Mars Geological Province Designations for the Interpretation of GRS Data

Introduction: An overarching geologic theory, GEOMARS, coherently explains many otherwise anomalous aspects of the geological history of Mars. Premises for a theory of martian geologic evolution include: (1) Mars is a water-rich terrestrial planet, (2) terrestrial planets should evolve through progressive stages of dynamical history (accretion, differentiation, tectonism) and mantle convection (magma ocean, plate tectonism, stagnant lid), and (3) the early history of Earth affords an analogue to the evolution of Mars. The theory describes the following major stages of evolution for Mars (from oldest to youngest): Stage 1 - shortly after accretion, Mars differentiates to a liquid metallic core, a mantle boundary (MBL) of high-pressure silicate mineral phases, upper mantle, magma ocean, thin komatiic crust, and convecting steam atmosphere; Stage 2- Mars cools to condense its steam atmosphere and transform its mode of mantle convection to plate tectonism; subduction of waterrich oceanic crust initiates arc volcanism and transfers water, carbonates and sulfates to the mantle; Stage 3 - the core dynamo initiates, and the associated magnetosphere leads to conditions conducive to the development of near-surface life and photosynthetic production of oxygen; Stage 4 - accretion of thickened, continental crust and subduction of hydrated oceanic crust to the mantle boundary layer and lower mantle of Mars occurs; Stage 5 - the core dynamo stops during Noachian heavy bombardment while plate tectonism continues; Stage 6 - initiation of the Tharsis superplume (approx. between 4.0 and 3.8Ga) occurs, and Stage 7 - the superlume phase (stagnant-lid regime) of martian planetary evolution with episodic phases of volcanism and water outflows continues into the present. The GEOMARS Theory is testable through a multidisciplinary approach, including utilizing GRS-based information. Based on a synthesis of published geologic, paleohydrologic, topographic, geophysical, spectral, and elemental information, we have defined geologic provinces that represent significant windows into the geological evolution of Mars, unfolding the GEOMARS Theory and forming the basis for interpreting GRS data.

Dohm, J. M.↗