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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Plan to Inform Testing of a Heat Exchanger Test Article

This report presents a preliminary plan to guide the qualification testing of advanced heat exchanger (HX) components for nuclear-to-industrial heat transfer applications. The objective is to establish a defensible, physics-based methodology that integrates computational modeling, targeted experimentation, and in-service inspection considerations to demonstrate component performance and reliability under representative reactor conditions. The analysis identifies Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) systems as reference configurations in terms of temperature, pressure, and chemical environment. Within these operating envelopes, dominant degradation mechanisms— including creep–fatigue interaction, flow-induced vibration, corrosion, and diffusion-bond deterioration—were evaluated to define test requirements. A comprehensive computationalexperimental framework is proposed to support life prediction and qualification activities. The framework couples high-fidelity structural-mechanics, thermal-hydraulic, and fluid-structure interaction models with accelerated degradation testing to produce a traceable linkage between microstructural evolution, mechanical performance, and remaining useful life (RUL). The approach adheres to established Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) standards (ASME V&V 10/20; NUREG-2152) and incorporates a digital-twin architecture for continuous model refinement through data assimilation. The plan further outlines testing methodologies, including pre-test analyses, test-loop design parameters, and sensor placement strategies that maximize information yield while maintaining mechanistic fidelity. Complementary sections describe in-service inspection (ISI), on-line monitoring (OLM), and structural-health-monitoring (SHM) techniques applicable to compact HX geometries typical of advanced reactors. Collectively, these activities establish the technical foundation for demonstrating 40-60-year equivalent service life of advanced heat exchangers in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor and Integrated Energy Systems programs. The forthcoming phase will execute the defined pre-test analyses, initiate hardware fabrication, and implement the integrated testing campaign to validate the proposed qualification methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dead Fuel Moisture Content Reanalysis Dataset for California (2000–2020)

This study presents a novel reanalysis dataset of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) across California from 2000 to 2020 at a 2 km resolution. Utilizing a data assimilation system that integrates a simplified time-lag fuel moisture model with 10-h fuel moisture observations from remote automated weather stations (RAWS) allowed predictions of 10-h fuel moisture content by our method with a mean absolute error of 0.03 g/g compared to the widely used Nelson model, with a mean absolute error prediction of 0.05 g/g. For context, the values of DFMC in California are commonly between 0.05 g/g and 0.30 g/g. The presented product provides gridded hourly moisture estimates for 1-h, 10-h, 100-h, and 1000-h fuels, essential for analyzing historical fire activity and understanding climatological trends. The methodology presented here demonstrates significant advancements in the accuracy and robustness of fuel moisture estimates, which are critical for fire forecasting and management.

Farguell, Angel (ORCID:000000032395220X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance of reanalysis and mesoscale models off the coast of Hawai'i

The eastern Hawai'i coast in the United States is characterized by considerable wind resource fuelled by persistent trade winds, making it an important area for energy research. The need is strong for reanalyses and higher-resolution regional simulations where observations have been historically limited, such as Hawai'i's offshore environments. However, studies using offshore observations in other parts of the world have shown that significant errors can occur in reanalyses and wind datasets, which can lead to inaccurate estimates of wind energy generation, payback periods, and extreme weather risks at project locations. The degree of such errors is influenced by a number of factors, including spatial resolution and the handling of processes within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In this work, we provide a wind resource characterization from year-long lidar buoy measurements off the eastern coast of O'ahu, Hawai'i, an environment previously unobserved at the rotor level, and use the characterization to evaluate the performance of two simulation datasets. The O'ahu deployment location is meteorologically unique and less complex than land-based wind resource characterizations, being strongly characterized by trade winds with minimal land–atmosphere interaction influences. Despite the unique and fairly consistent meteorological conditions, we hypothesize that distinct simulation datasets will exhibit diverse ranges of errors similar to those that have been seen for other offshore locations. We find the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) to strongly underestimate observed wind speeds at the O'ahu location (bias = −1.54 m s −1 at a height of 140 m above sea level), while a regional Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulation produced by the University of Hawai'i (UH-WRF) provides a significantly smaller wind speed bias (−0.25 m s −1 ), highlighting the value of running regional, higher-resolution simulations. The large bias noted for ERA5 is driven by significant underestimation of fast wind speeds (>9 m s −1 ), which the study site is largely characterized by, along with discontinuities in the ERA5 diurnal cycle. We also speculate that the relative sparsity of observations for data assimilation in this remote part of the world could influence the performance of ERA5 and that challenges with characterizing island effects could impact the performance of both datasets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

SORCER TEST UTQIAĠVIK DEPLOYMENT FOR IONOGRAMS (STUDI) 2021-2024

The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) has developed a passive broadband radio frequency (RF) receiver, called a Sounder Receiver (SoRcer), as an ionospheric diagnostic instrument. These systems can produce ionospheric specifications to characterize the local ionosphere. The specifications from the SoRcers can then be used to inform data-assimilation models; monitor diurnal, seasonal, or other cyclical changes; and detect irregularities or abnormalities in the ionosphere, such as traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), sporadic E, and spread F.

frequency↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Correlation Methods for Use in Criticality Safety

Although their adoption by practitioners has been limited, the introduction of similarity indices in criticality safety was a major step forward in reducing the reliance on expert judgement in discerning applicable experiments for the validation of new appliations in criticality safety analyses. Similarity indices have been successfully employed in bias trending and data assimilation techniques, but it is often unclear which acceptance criteria should be used. In their 2004 paper, Broadhead et al. specify the most widely used similarity parameter, ck, as an acceptance cutoff at 0.9. (Broadhead et al., ”Sensitivity and Uncertainty-Based Criticality Safety Validation Techniques,” Nucl. Sci. Eng. 146, 340–366, 2004). Experiments with a ck < 0.9 are often not considered applicable for code validation. This heuristic is based on quantitative studies and engineering judgement, but in some cases, experiments with ck < 0.9 can be used to accurately estimate computational bias. This suggests that further analysis is needed to determine what components of ck are driving applicability and accuracy in bias estimation. For cases in which applicable experiments may not be available (as is the case with UF6 transport canisters), understanding what distinguishes experiments in providing adequate bias estimates aside from just the similarity index is particularly necessary. To further the goal to better interpret ck values, several visualization tools were developed to assist in the investigation of which components of ck are driving applicability.

ck↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Closures and Assimilation for Stiff Multiscale Random Dynamics

Here, we introduce a data-driven and physics-informed framework for propagating uncertainty in stiff, multiscale random ordinary differential equations (RODEs) driven by correlated (colored) noise. Unlike systems subjected to Gaussian white noise, a deterministic equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of RODE state variables does not exist in closed form. Moreover, such an equation would require as many phase-space variables as there are states in the RODE system. To alleviate this curse of dimensionality, we instead derive exact, albeit unclosed, reduced-order PDF (RoPDF) equations for low-dimensional observables/quantities of interest. The unclosed terms take the form of state-dependent conditional expectations, which are directly estimated from data at sparse observation times. However, for systems exhibiting stiff, multiscale dynamics, data sparsity introduces regression discrepancies that compound during RoPDF evolution. This is overcome by introducing a kinetic-like defect term to the RoPDF equation, which is learned by assimilating in sparse, low-fidelity RoPDF estimates. Two assimilation methods are considered, namely nudging and deep neural networks, which are successfully tested against Monte Carlo simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Sensor Dilemma in Intelligent Transportation Systems

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) are at the forefront in advancing the way we interact and perceive with the transportation network. This revolution is fueled by the significant advancement in sensor perception technologies such as Radar, LiDAR and Video Imaging which are the most popular modalities for ITS. Real-time perception data from these sensors allows intelligent infrastructure side decision making to improve the energy, efficiency and safety at traffic intersections. As traffic departments across the United States are transitioning from traditional loop detectors / emulators and embracing newer technologies, they are often left with a dilemma in choosing a sensor technology for infrastructure-based perception which is reliable, inexpensive, easy to setup and has robust performance in varying weather conditions. However, choosing a sensor which checks all boxes is not straightforward as every sensor type has unique benefits and drawbacks. Radar is excellent at detecting long range vehicles and weather resistance but lacks high resolution. LiDAR is expensive and weather-sensitive, while cameras provide rich visual data at a low cost but are constrained by lighting and visibility. This study examines Radar, LiDAR and camera sensors capabilities to ascertain whether any of these qualifies as the "best" sensor for ITS perception. Through this evaluation, we hope to draw attention to the necessity of National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Infrastructure Perception and Control (IPC) framework which presents a multi-sensor track data fusion engine to assimilate multiple data streams in order to provide robust and reliable perception. While no single sensor can meet all the demands of ITS, a hybrid approach combining multiple sensor modalities like Radar, LiDAR and cameras, offers the most robust solution for enhancing the safety and efficiency in intelligent transportation systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Sensor Dilemma in Intelligent Transportation Systems: Evaluating Radar, Lidar and Camera: Preprint

Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) are at the forefront in advancing the way we interact with and perceive the transportation network. This revolution is fueled by the significant advancement in sensor perception technologies such as radar, lidar, and video imaging, which are the most popular modalities for ITS. Real-time perception data from these sensors allow intelligent infrastructure-side decision-making to improve the energy, efficiency, and safety at traffic intersections. As traffic departments across the United States transition from traditional loop detectors and emulators and embrace newer technologies, they are often left with a dilemma in choosing a sensor technology for infrastructure-based perception that is reliable, inexpensive, and easy to set up and that has robust performance in varying weather conditions. However, choosing a sensor that checks all these boxes is not straightforward, as every sensor type has unique benefits and drawbacks. Radar is excellent at detecting long-range vehicles and weather resistance but lacks high resolution. Lidar is expensive and weather-sensitive, while cameras provide rich visual data at a low cost but are constrained by lighting and visibility. This study examines radar, lidar, and camera sensor capabilities to ascertain whether any of these qualifies as the "best" sensor for ITS perception. While no single sensor can meet all the demands of ITS, a hybrid approach combining multiple sensor modalities like radar, lidar, and cameras offers the most robust solution for enhancing the safety and efficiency of ITS. Through this evaluation, we hope to draw attention to the necessity of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's infrastructure perception and control framework, which presents a multisensor track data fusion engine to assimilate multiple data streams in order to provide robust and reliable perception.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanisms Behind the Long‐Distance Diurnal Offshore Precipitation Propagation in Northwestern South America

Abstract Northwestern South America (NWSA) is the rainiest region on Earth, with diurnal precipitation exhibiting extensive westward offshore propagation of up to about 1,200 km in boreal spring (March‐May). The diurnal offshore precipitation propagation begins slowly (3–10 m s −1 ) near the coast of NWSA (<200 km) but accelerates significantly (∼20 m s −1 ) and shows an afternoon enhancement far from the coast (>400 km). However, the driving mechanisms behind this long‐distance precipitation propagation remain unclear. Using a new cloud tracking and classification data set, we found that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant precipitation contributors in the offshore region of NWSA. Cloud tracking shows that the long‐distance propagation and the afternoon enhancement of diurnal precipitation primarily originate from MCSs initiated in the early morning, either over open oceans or from the coast of Central America. Composite tendency analysis shows that MCSs initiated near the coast of Central America have significant upward cooling and moistening signals starting from the surface before initiation. Further analysis of surface diurnal perturbation fields indicates that the land breeze is the primary driving mechanism for MCS initiation. Conversely, for MCSs initiated over open oceans, a significant downward cooling signal from 400 hPa is observed ∼7 hr before initiation, corresponding to the passage of diurnal gravity waves emitted from the Andes. Additionally, our findings highlight the critical role of lower and mid‐level moisture conditions in MCS initiation, alongside the influence of gravity waves.

Hu, Jingyi [Department of Meteorology and Atmosphe↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hourly PM 2.5 Estimates across California from 2018 to 2023

This study presents a new data set of hourly PM 2.5 concentrations across California from 2018 to 2023 at a three-kilometer resolution. This data set was developed by assimilating observations from PurpleAir and the U.S. EPA Air Quality System monitors into wildfire smoke forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Archived forecasts of modeled wildfire smoke PM 2.5 from HRRR-Smoke create the background field for assimilation, which is then corrected using surface observations of total PM 2.5 . The resulting reanalysis from GSI provides an estimate of total PM 2.5 that minimizes error from both the observational and the model data. Validation results indicate strong performance, with monthly R 2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 across the six-year data set, comparable to other PM 2.5 data sets. Case studies are presented for three major fire events, the 2018 Camp Fire, 2019 Kincade Fire, and 2020 Lightning Complex Fires to demonstrate the data set’s fidelity in resolving plume dynamics and local exposure patterns. Root-mean-squared error averaged over each month scales with average PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting in a low error under typical conditions but higher absolute errors during extreme smoke events. This is the first long-term, hourly PM 2.5 data set of its kind for California and enables the generation of subdaily exposure metrics, such as peak hourly concentrations, exceedance durations, and time-of-day exposure peaks. The novelty and strong validation of this data set make it a compelling resource for future studies on the impact and significance of subdaily PM 2.5 exposure.

PM2.5↗
DOE OSTI2025

Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2026

A score-based diffusion model approach for adaptive learning of stochastic partial differential equation solutions

In this paper, we propose a novel framework for adaptively learning the time-evolving solutions of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) using score-based diffusion models within a recursive Bayesian inference setting. SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under uncertainty, but their numerical solutions often suffer from model errors and reduced accuracy due to incomplete physical knowledge and environmental variability. To address these challenges, we encode the governing physics into the score function of a diffusion model using simulation data and incorporate observational information via a likelihood-based correction in a reverse-time stochastic differential equation. This enables adaptive learning through iterative refinement of the solution as new data becomes available. To improve computational efficiency in high-dimensional settings, we introduce the ensemble score filter, a training-free approximation of the score function designed for real-time inference. Numerical experiments on benchmark SPDEs demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method under sparse and noisy observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing Wet Season Precipitation in the Central Amazon Using a Mesoscale Convective System Tracking Algorithm

To comprehensively characterize convective precipitation in the central Amazon region, we utilize the Python FLEXible object TRacKeR (PyFLEXTRKR) to track mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) observed through satellite measurements and simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permitting resolution. This study spans a 2-month period during the wet seasons of 2014 and 2015. We observe a strong correlation between the MCS track density and accumulated precipitation in the Amazon basin. Key factors contributing to precipitation, such as MCS properties (number, size, rainfall intensity, and movement), are thoroughly examined. Our analysis reveals that while the overall model produces fewer MCSs with smaller mean sizes compared to observations, it tends to overpredict total precipitation due to excessive rainfall intensity for heavy rainfall events (≥10 mm hr –1 ). These biases in simulated MCS properties could vary with the constraints on the convective background environment. Moreover, while the wet bias from heavy (convective) rainfall outweighs the dry bias in light (stratiform) rainfall, the latter can be crucial, particularly when MCS cloud cover is significantly underestimated. A case study for 1 April 2014 highlights the influence of environmental conditions on the MCS lifecycle and identifies an unrealistic model representation in both stratiform and convective precipitation features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Bayesian Inference at Extreme Scale: A Digital Twin for Tsunami Early Warning Applied to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We present a Bayesian inversion-based digital twin that employs acoustic pressure data from seafloor sensors, along with 3D coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion in real time and forecast tsunami propagation toward coastlines for early warning with quantified uncertainties. Our target is the Cascadia subduction zone, with one billion parameters. Computing the posterior mean alone would require 50 years on a 512 GPU machine. Instead, exploiting the shift invariance of the parameter-to-observable map and devising novel parallel algorithms, we induce a fast offline–online decomposition. The offline component requires just one adjoint wave propagation per sensor; using MFEM, we scale this part of the computation to the full El Capitan system (43,520 GPUs) with 92% weak parallel efficiency. Moreover, given real-time data, the online component exactly solves the Bayesian inverse and forecasting problems in 0.2 seconds on a modest GPU system, a ten-billion-fold speedup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A copula-based rank histogram ensemble filter

Serial ensemble filters implement triangular probability transport maps to reduce high-dimensional inference problems to sequences of state-by-state univariate inference problems. The univariate inference problems are solved by sampling posterior probability densities obtained by combining constructed prior densities with observational likelihoods according to Bayes' rule. Many serial filters in the literature focus on representing the marginal posterior densities of each state. However, rigorously capturing the conditional dependencies between the different univariate inferences is crucial to correctly sampling multidimensional posteriors. This work proposes a new serial ensemble filter, called the copula rank histogram filter (CoRHF), that seeks to capture the conditional dependency structure between variables via empirical copula estimates; these estimates are used to rigorously implement the triangular (state-by-state univariate) Bayesian inference. The success of the CoRHF is demonstrated on two-dimensional examples and the Lorenz'63 problem. A practical extension to the high-dimensional setting is developed by localizing the empirical copula estimation, and is demonstrated on the Lorenz'96 problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Editorial: Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age

Editorial on the Research Topic Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age The near-Earth space environment is not only an operational hazard for space missions, but also a scientific laboratory for advancing our understanding and prediction of space plasma populations. This Research Topic is organized around three interconnected themes: observational datasets, machine-learning (ML) model development, and the discovery of new physical insights through those models. Its primary goal is to highlight the emerging capabilities in space environment prediction that are enabled, or will be enabled, by integrating advanced techniques—including AI/ML methods—with long-term curated datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗