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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2018

The Role of Atmospheric Teleconnections and Local Forcings in Predicting Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss

In recent decades, the Arctic climate has experienced substantial climactic change, including significant decreases in both sea ice extent and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance. These trends are overlain by substantial interannual variability in atmospheric circulation driven by large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that the removal of Arctic sea ice can alter local atmospheric circulation through increased air temperature, clouds, and water vapor, which may contribute to increased surface melting on the GrIS. Here, we seek to characterize how these processes are linked to Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass loss and constrain how the representation of these forcings can impact the prediction of meltwater runoff within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system (S2S v2.1). To do this, we use a combination of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis product, retrospective seasonal forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1, and independent GEOS simulations. Results from MERRA-2 reanalysis indicate that the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) results in warm surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation across Greenland, both of which act to enhance summer ice surface mass losses. When compared with MERRA-2, retrospective forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1 system effectively reproduce the pattern of summer GrIS surface mass loss and demonstrate reasonable skill in predicting the magnitude of meltwater runoff at leads of 1 to 3 months. However, during periods with a strong negative NAO, ice sheet surface mass balance is substantially underestimated. This pattern is also associated with an underprediction of the Greenland Blocking Index height and over prediction of sea ice extent, suggesting that both local and non-local forcings may play a role in the reduced prediction skill during these periods. Using both retrospective forecasts and independent simulations, we characterize the relative importance of local and non-local mechanisms in driving summer GrIS

Andrews, Lauren C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Transport models for numerical forecast

The explosive growth of computing power, coupled with scientific and technological emphasis on a national scale, has led to significant major advances in operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) during the last two decades. There are about half a dozen major centers around the world running global NWP models operationally. Many more countries have operational hemispheric or limited-area models which provide weather forecasts. The global models typically have several hundred kilometer resolution, while the limited-area models usually have horizontal spacing of 50 to 100 km. Given the pace of burgeoning growth in this area, it seems warranted to occasionally take an overview of aspects of the field common to all modelers. Here, a brief look is taken at the nature of subgrid scale turbulence transport parameterization, and some of the difficulties pertaining thereto, with particular emphasis on operational NWP models.

Burk, Stephen D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Global change data sets: Excerpts from the Master Directory, version 2.0

The recent awakening to the reality of human-induced changes to the environment has resulted in an organized effort to promote global change research. The goal of this research as outlined by NASA's Earth System Science Committee (Earth System Science: A closer View, 1988) is to understand the entire Earth system on a global scale by describing how its component parts and their interactions have evolved, how they function, and how they may be expected to evolve on all timescales. The practical result is the capacity to predict that evolution over the next decade to century. Key variables important for the study of global change include external forcing factors (solar radiance, UV flux), radiatively and chemically important trace species (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc.), atmospheric response variables (temperature, pressure, winds), landsurface properties (river run-off, snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, vegetation cover), and oceanic variables (sea surface temperature, sea ice extent, sea level ocean wind stress, currents, chlorophyll, biogeochemical fluxes). The purpose of this document is to identify existing data sets available (both remotely sensed and in situ data) covering some of these variables. This is not intended to be a complete list of global change data, but merely a highlight of what is available. The information was extracted from the Master Directory (MD), an on-line scientific data information service which may be used by any researcher. This report contains the coverage dates for the data sets, sources (satellites, instruments) of the data and where they are archived.

Beier, Joy↗
NASA NTRS1993

Advanced air traffic management

Air traffic worldwide continues to grow, and this growth is predicted to continue in the coming decades. Air traffic management (ATM) systems in several parts of the world have now reached their operating limits. The external symptoms of this are increases in the number of delays experienced by the system, and a rise in the frequency of near-misses. If the ATM system fails to develop to provide more capacity, then the result will be a decrease in safety levels, and increasing delays, or a limit on the number of permitted aircraft operations.

Wangermann, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Thermophysical property sensitivity effects in steel solidification

The simulation of advanced solidification processes via digital computer techniques has gained widespread acceptance during the last decade or so. Models today can predict transient temperature fields, fluid flow fields, important microstructural parameters, and potential defects in castings. However, the lack of accurate thermophysical property data on important industrial alloys threatens to limit the ability of manufacturers to fully capitalize on the technology's benefits. A study of the sensitivity of one such numerical model of a steel plate casting to imposed variations in the data utilized for the thermal conductivity, specific heat, density, and heat of fusion is described. The sensitivity of the data's variability is characterized by its effects on the net solidification time of various points along the centerline of the plate casting. Recommendations for property measurements are given and the implications of data uncertainty for modelers are discussed.

Overfelt, Tony↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Moderate Resolution View of the Spectral Absorption of Clouds

Some of the first evidence of a cloud absorption anomaly came from retrievals of cloud droplet size using measured multispectral cloud reflectance and in situ microphysical measurements. It was found that spectra computed from the measured droplet size or, equivalently, effective radius inverted from the reflectance measurements disagreed in such a way that suggested there was more absorption in cloud than predicted by theory. During the past decade new evidence of a cloud absorption anomaly has emerged from broadband solar flux measurements from above and below clouds. Based on these findings new field campaigns were devised to specifically address this problem. The most recent of these, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Enhanced Shortwave Experiment II (ARESEII), included measurements of upwelling and downwelling moderate resolution (10 nm) solar irradiance spectra from above and below cloud. During this talk we will briefly summarize the advantages and limitations of these spectrally resolved measurements compared to the more standard broadband flux. We will focus on cloudy atmosphere results from the ARESEII field study and compare them to theoretical spectra from three independent models.

Pilewskie, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2002

Ozone Layer Observations

The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been monitoring the ozone layer from space using optical remote sensing techniques since 1970. With concern over catalytic destruction of ozone (mid-1970s) and the development of the Antarctic ozone hole (mid-1980s), long term ozone monitoring has become the primary focus of NASA's series of ozone measuring instruments. A series of TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) and SBUV (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet) instruments has produced a nearly continuous record of global ozone from 1979 to the present. These instruments infer ozone by measuring sunlight backscattered from the atmosphere in the ultraviolet through differential absorption. These measurements have documented a 15 Dobson Unit drop in global average ozone since 1980, and the declines in ozone in the antarctic each October have been far more dramatic. Instruments that measure the ozone vertical distribution, the SBUV and SAGE (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) instruments for example, show that the largest changes are occurring in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. The goal of ozone measurement in the next decades will be to document the predicted recovery of the ozone layer as CFC (chlorofluorocarbon) levels decline. This will require a continuation of global measurements of total column ozone on a global basis, but using data from successor instruments to TOMS. Hyperspectral instruments capable of measuring in the UV will be needed for this purpose. Establishing the relative roles of chemistry and dynamics will require instruments to measure ozone in the troposphere and in the stratosphere with good vertical resolution. Instruments that can measure other chemicals important to ozone formation and destruction will also be needed.

McPeters, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2016

Monitoring Interannual Variation in Global Crop Yield Using Long-Term AVHRR and MODIS Observations

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been extensively applied for crop yield prediction because of their daily temporal resolution and a global coverage. This study investigated global crop yield using daily two band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2013) observations at a spatial resolution of 0.05deg (approx.5 km). Specifically, EVI2 temporal trajectory of crop growth was simulated using a hybrid piecewise logistic model (HPLM) for individual pixels, which was used to detect crop phenological metrics. The derived crop phenology was then applied to calculate crop greenness defined as EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration during annual crop growing seasons, which was further aggregated for croplands in each country, respectively. The interannual variations in EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration were combined to correlate to the variation in cereal yield from 1982-2012 for individual countries using a stepwise regression model, respectively. The results show that the confidence level of the established regression models was higher than 90% (P value < 0.1) in most countries in the northern hemisphere although it was relatively poor in the southern hemisphere (mainly in Africa). The error in the yield predication was relatively smaller in America, Europe and East Asia than that in Africa. In the 10 countries with largest cereal production across the world, the prediction error was less than 9% during past three decades. This suggests that crop phenology-controlled greenness from coarse resolution satellite data has the capability of predicting national crop yield across the world, which could provide timely and reliable crop information for global agricultural trade and policymakers.

Crop phenology↗
NASA NTRS2017

Kinetic Damage from Meteorites

Comparing the natural meteorite flux at the Earth's surface to that of space debris, reentering debris is approx. 2 orders of magnitude less of a kinetic hazard at all but the very largest (and therefore rarest) sizes compared to natural impactors. Debris re-entries over several metric tonnes are roughly as frequent as natural impactors, but the survival fraction is expected to be much higher. Kinetic hazards from meteorites are very small, with only one recorded (indirect) injury reported. We expect fatalities to be even more rare, on the order of one person killed per several millennia. That several reports exist of small fragments/sand hitting people during meteorite falls is consistent with our prediction that this should occur every decade or so.

Cooke, W.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Advanced Computational Modeling Approaches for Shock Response Prediction

Motivation: (1) The activation of pyroshock devices such as explosives, separation nuts, pin-pullers, etc. produces high frequency transient structural response, typically from few tens of Hz to several hundreds of kHz. (2) Lack of reliable analytical tools makes the prediction of appropriate design and qualification test levels a challenge. (3) In the past few decades, several attempts have been made to develop methodologies that predict the structural responses to shock environments. (4) Currently, there is no validated approach that is viable to predict shock environments overt the full frequency range (i.e., ~100 Hz to 10 kHz). Scope: (1) Model, analyze, and interpret space structural systems with complex interfaces and discontinuities, subjected to shock loads. (2) Assess the viability of a suite of numerical tools to simulate transient, non-linear solid mechanics and structural dynamics problems, such as shock wave propagation.

Derkevorkian, Armen↗
NASA NTRS2017

Kinetic Damage from Meteorites

Comparing the natural meteorite flux at the Earth's surface to that of space debris, re-entering debris is ~2 orders of magnitude less of a kinetic hazard at all but the very largest (and therefore rarest) sizes compared to natural impactors. Debris re-entries over several metric tonnes are roughly as frequent as natural impactors, but the survival fraction is expected to be much higher. Kinetic hazards from meteorites are very small, with only one recorded (indirect) injury reported. We expect fatalities to be even more rare, on the order of one person killed per several millennia. That several reports exist of small fragments/sand hitting people during meteorite falls is consistent with our prediction that this should occur every decade or so.

Cooke, W.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Decadal Polar Motion of the Earth Excited by the Convective Outer Core From Geodynamo Simulations

Long time geodetic observation records show that the orientation of the Earth's rotation axis with respect to the terrestrial reference frame, or polar motion, changes on a broad range of timescales. Apart from external torques from the luni-solar tides, these changes are excited by interactions among different components of the Earth system. The convective fluid outer core has long been conjectured a likely contributor to the observed polar motion on timescales upward of decades, such as the 30 year Markowitz wobble. We investigated the electromagnetic coupling scenario across the core-mantle boundary via numerical geodynamo simulation for different geodynamo parameters (Rayleigh numbers and magnetic Rossby numbers). Our simulated polar motion varies strongly with the dynamo parameters, while its excitation on decadal timescales appear to converge asymptotically within the adopted range of numerical Rossby numbers. Three strongest asymptotic modes emerge from numerical results, with periods around 30, 40, and 60 years for the prograde excitation and around 24, 30, and 60 years for the retrograde excitation. Their amplitudes are all larger than 5 times 10 (sup minus 8), or approximately 10 milliseconds of arc.The results suggest that the electromagnetic core-mantle coupling could explain a substantial portion, if not all, of the observed decadal polar motion. In particular, the predicted 60 year polar motion deserves special attention for future observations and studies.

Kuang, W.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Fast Radio Burst Luminosity Function and Death Line in the Low-Twist Magnetar Model

We explore the burst energy distribution of fast radio bursts(FRBs)in the low-twist magnetar model ofWadiasingh & Timokhin(WT19). Motivated by the power-lawfluence distributions of FRB121102, we proposean elementary model for the FRB luminosity function of individual repeaters with an inversion protocol thatdirectly relates the power-law distribution index of magnetar short burstfluences to that for FRBs. The protocolindicates that the FRB energy scales virtually linearly with crust/field dislocation amplitude, if magnetar shortbursts prevail in the magnetoelastic regime. Charge starvation in the magnetosphere during bursts(required inWT19)for individual repeaters implies the predicted burstfluence distribution is narrow,3 decades for yieldingstrains and oscillation frequencies feasible in magnetar crusts. Requiring magnetic confinement and chargestarvation, we obtain a death line for FRBs, which segregates magnetars from the normal pulsar population,suggesting only the former will host recurrent FRBs. We convolve the burst energy distribution for individualmagnetars to define the distribution of luminosities in evolved magnetar populations. The broken power-lawluminosity function’s low-energy character depends on the population model, while the high-energy index tracesthat of individual repeaters. Independent of the evolved population, the broken power-law isotropic-equivalentenergy/luminosity function peaks at∼1037–1040erg with a low-energy cutoff at∼1037erg. Lastly, we considerthe localfluence distribution of FRBs andfind that it can constrain the subset of FRB-producing magnetarprogenitors. Our model suggests that improvements in sensitivity may reveal aflattening of the global FRBfluencedistribution and saturation in FRB rates.

Cosmology↗
NASA NTRS2008

How Deep and Hot was Earth's Magma Ocean? Combined Experimental Datasets for the Metal-silicate Partitioning of 11 Siderophile Elements - Ni, Co, Mo, W, P, Mn, V, Cr, Ga, Cu and Pd

Since approximately 1990 high pressure and temperature (PT) experiments on metal-silicate systems have showed that partition coefficients (D) for siderophile (iron-loving) elements are much different than those measured at low PT conditions. The high PT data have been used to argue for a magma ocean during growth of the early Earth. Initial conclusions were based on experiments and calculations for a small number of elements such as Ni and Co. However, for many elements only a limited number of experimental data were available then, and they only hinted at values of metal-silicate D's at high PT conditions. In the ensuing decades there have been hundreds of new experiments carried out and published on a wide range of siderophile elements. At the same time several different models have been advanced to explain the siderophile elements in the earth's mantle: a) intermediate depth magma ocean; 25-30 GPa, b) deep magma ocean; up to 50 GPa, and c) early reduced and later oxidized magma ocean. Some studies have drawn conclusions based on a small subset of siderophile elements, or a set of elements that provides little leverage on the big picture (like slightly siderophile elements), and no single study has attempted to quantitatively explain more than 5 elements at a time. The purpose of this abstract is to update the predictive expressions outlined by Righter et al. (1997) with new experimental data from the last decade, test the predictive ability of these expressions against independent datasets (there are more data now to do this properly), and to apply the resulting expressions to the siderophile element patterns in Earth's upper mantle. The predictive expressions have the form: lnD = alnfO2 + b/T + cP/T + d(1Xs) + e(1Xc) + SigmafiXi + g These expressions are guided by the thermodynamics of simple metal-oxide equilibria that control each element, include terms that mimic the activity coefficients of each element in the metal and silicate, and quantify the effect of variable oxygen fugacity. Preliminary results confirm that D(Ni) and D(Co) converge at pressures near 25-30 GPa and approximately 2200 K, and show that D(Pd) and D(Cu) become too low at the PT conditions of the deepest models. Furthermore, models which force fit V and Cr mantle concentrations by metal-silicate equilibrium overlook the fact that at early Earth mantle fO2, these elements will be more compatible in Mg-perovskite and (Fe,Mg)O than in metal. Thus an intermediate depth magma ocean, at 25-30 GPa, 2200 K, and at IW-2, can explain more mantle siderophile element concentrations than other models.

Righter, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2016

Remote Sensing Global Surface Air Pressure Using Differential Absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR)

Tropical storms and severe weathers are listed as one of core events that need improved observations and predictions in World Meteorological Organization and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) documents and have major impacts on public safety and national security. This effort tries to observe surface air pressure, especially over open seas, from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at the 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed space radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 4 millibars (approximately 1 millibar under all weather conditions). With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts of severe weathers such as hurricanes will be significantly improved. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, NASA Langley DiBAR research team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. The feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. The team has developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with the instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance based on the existing DiBAR technology and capability show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on global extreme weather and climate conditions.

Lin, Bing↗
NASA NTRS2008

Stratospheric Semi-Decadal Oscillations in NCEP Data

An analysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) data is presented to provide a more complete description of the stratospheric 5-year semi-decadal (SD) oscillation (Mayr et al., 2007). The zonal-mean temperature and zonal wind data from the Atmospheric Research R-1 analysis are employed, covering the years from 1962 to 2002 in the altitude range from 10 to 30km. For diagnostic purposes, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to identify the signatures of the SD oscillations. Through the synthesis or filtering of spectral features, the SD modulations of the annual oscillation (AO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are delineated. In agreement with the earlier findings, the magnitude of the SD oscillation is more pronounced when the 30-month QBO dominates during the years from 1975 to 1995. This is consistent with results from a numerical model, which shows that such a QBO generates the SD oscillation through interaction with the 12-month AO. In the zonal winds, the SD oscillation in the NCEP data is confined to equatorial latitudes, where it modulates the symmetric AO and QBO by about 5 m/s below 30 km. In the temperature data, the effect is also seen around the equator, but it is much larger at polar latitudes where the SD oscillation produces variations as large as 2 K. Our data analysis indicates that the SD oscillation is mainly hemispherically symmetric, and it appears to originate at equatorial latitudes where most of the energy resides.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

SST↗
NASA NTRS1999

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Zhou, Jiayu↗