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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty for deep learning based forecasting and flow-reconstruction using neural architecture search ensembles

Classical problems in computational physics such as data-driven forecasting and signal reconstruction from sparse sensors have recently seen an explosion in deep neural network (DNN) based algorithmic approaches. However, most DNN models do not provide uncertainty estimates, which are crucial for establishing the trustworthiness of these techniques in downstream decision making tasks and scenarios. In recent years, ensemble-based methods have achieved significant success for the uncertainty quantification in DNNs on a number of benchmark problems. However, their performance on real-world applications remains under-explored. In this work, we present an automated approach to DNN discovery and demonstrate how this may also be utilized for ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. Specifically, we propose the use of a scalable neural and hyperparameter architecture search for discovering an ensemble of DNN models for complex dynamical systems. We highlight how the proposed method not only discovers high-performing neural network ensembles for our tasks, but also quantifies uncertainty seamlessly. This is achieved by using genetic algorithms and Bayesian optimization for sampling the search space of neural network architectures and hyperparameters. Subsequently, a model selection approach is used to identify candidate models for an ensemble set construction. Afterwards, a variance decomposition approach is used to estimate the uncertainty of the predictions from the ensemble. We demonstrate the feasibility of this framework for two tasks — forecasting from historical data and flow reconstruction from sparse sensors for the sea-surface temperature. In conclusion, we demonstrate superior performance from the ensemble in contrast with individual high-performing models and other benchmarks.

Deep ensembles↗
NASA NTRS1992

Infrared, microwave, and spaceborne radar simulations of a deep convective system using a 3-D cloud ensemble method

A 3D cloud model is used to simulate the storm structure, and the results are linked to microwave and infrared radiative transfer models for simulation of aircraft observations. Spaceborne radar data are also simulated along the aircraft flight track. The cloud and radiative model simulations are studied and compared with aircraft observations. The initial results indicate that the 3D cloud model is capable of simulating the major features of observed storm systems when given a representative atmospheric sounding to initialize the convective systems. The simulations of infrared and microwave radiances provide reasonably good comparisons with the observations.

Yeh, H.-Y. M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ensemble transfer learning for the prediction of anti-cancer drug response

Abstract Transfer learning, which transfers patterns learned on a source dataset to a related target dataset for constructing prediction models, has been shown effective in many applications. In this paper, we investigate whether transfer learning can be used to improve the performance of anti-cancer drug response prediction models. Previous transfer learning studies for drug response prediction focused on building models to predict the response of tumor cells to a specific drug treatment. We target the more challenging task of building general prediction models that can make predictions for both new tumor cells and new drugs. Uniquely, we investigate the power of transfer learning for three drug response prediction applications including drug repurposing, precision oncology, and new drug development, through different data partition schemes in cross-validation. We extend the classic transfer learning framework through ensemble and demonstrate its general utility with three representative prediction algorithms including a gradient boosting model and two deep neural networks. The ensemble transfer learning framework is tested on benchmark in vitro drug screening datasets. The results demonstrate that our framework broadly improves the prediction performance in all three drug response prediction applications with all three prediction algorithms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Isotope effects in molecular structures and electronic properties of liquid water via deep potential molecular dynamics based on the SCAN functional

Here, Feynman path-integral deep potential molecular dynamics (PI-DPMD) calculations have been employed to study both light (H 2 O) and heavy water (D 2 O) within the isothermalisobaric ensemble. In particular, the deep neural network is trained based on ab initio data obtained from the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) exchange-correlation functional. Because of the lighter mass of hydrogen than deuteron, the properties of light water are more influenced by nuclear quantum effect than those of heavy water. Clear isotope effects are observed and analyzed in terms of hydrogen-bond structure and electronic properties of water that are closely associated with experimental observables. The molecular structures of both liquid H 2 O and D 2 O agree well with the data extracted from scattering experiments. The delicate isotope effects on radial distribution functions and angular distribution functions are well reproduced as well. Our approach demonstrates that deep neural network combined with SCAN functional based ab initio molecular dynamics provides an accurate theoretical tool for modeling water and its isotope effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing ensemble learning for performance and power modeling and improvement of parallel cancer deep learning CANDLE benchmarks

Abstract Machine learning (ML) continues to grow in importance across nearly all domains in modeling to learn from data. Often a tradeoff exists between a model's ability to minimize bias and variance. In this article, we utilize ensemble learning to combine linear, nonlinear, and tree‐/rule‐based ML methods to cope with the bias‐variance tradeoff and result in more accurate models. We use the datasets collected for two parallel cancer deep learning CANDLE benchmarks, NT3 and P1B2, to build performance and power models based on hardware performance counters using single‐object and multiple‐objects ensemble learning to identify the most important counters for improvement on the Cray XC40 Theta at Argonne National Laboratory. Based on the insights from these models, we improve the performance and energy of P1B2 and NT3 by optimizing the deep learning environments TensorFlow, Keras, Horovod, and Python under the huge page size of 8 MB. Experimental results show that ensemble learning not only produces more accurate models but also provides more robust performance counter ranking. We achieve up to 61.15% performance improvement and up to 62.58% energy saving for P1B2 and up to 55.81% performance improvement and up to 52.60% energy saving for NT3 on up to 24,576 cores.

Wu, Xingfu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of a Stochastic Mixing Scheme in the Deep Convective Gray Zone Using a Tropical Oceanic Deep Convection Case Study

Abstract A stochastic horizontal subgrid‐scale mixing scheme is evaluated in ensemble simulations of a tropical oceanic deep convection case using a horizontal grid spacing (Δ h ) of 3 km. The stochastic scheme, which perturbs the horizontal mixing coefficient according to a prescribed spatiotemporal autocorrelation scale, is found to generally increase mesoscale organization and convective intensity relative to a non‐stochastic control simulation. Perturbations applied at relatively short autocorrelation scales induce differences relative to the control that are more systematic than those from perturbations applied at relatively long scales that yield more variable outcomes. A simulation with mixing enhanced by a constant factor of 4 significantly increases mesoscale organization and convective intensity, while turning off horizontal subgrid‐scale mixing decreases both. Total rainfall is modulated by a combination of mesoscale organization, areal coverage of convection, and convective intensity. The stochastic simulations tend to behave more similarly to the constant enhanced mixing simulation owing to greater impacts from enhanced mixing as compared to reduced mixing. The impacts of stochastic mixing are robust, ascertained by comparing the stochastic mixing ensembles with a non‐stochastic mixing ensemble that has grid‐scale noise added to the initial thermodynamic field. Compared to radar observations and a higher resolution Δ h = 1 km simulation, stochastic mixing seemingly degrades the simulation performance. These results imply that stochastic mixing produces non‐negligible impacts on convective system properties and evolution but does not lead to an improved representation of convective cloud characteristics in the case studied here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multimodal sensor fusion framework for residential building occupancy detection

For several years now, smart building energy systems have been a research area of intensive activity. In light of the increasing need for sustainable buildings and energy systems, this trend motivates an increasing need for a solution to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and improve energy efficiency. This work proposes a high-performing and transferable occupancy detection framework that combines sensor data from different data modalities, including time series environmental data (temperature, humidity, and illuminance), image data, and acoustic energy data using ensemble method. To draw out the best prediction performance in each modality, the proposed framework was developed, including various models that were designed to learn the occupancy patterns reflected in the physical data streams. To tackle the time series environmental data, we designed two variants of an occupancy detection spatiotemporal pattern network (Occ-STPN) that performs both feature level and decision level fusion, respectively. We also propose a new metric; the fading memory mean square error (FMMSE), that provides a fair evaluation and penalization of delayed occupancy predictions. Multiple open-sourced datasets, including the Electricity Consumption and Occupancy and the University of California, Irvine's (UCI) building occupancy detection dataset, along with our own real data collected from six different houses, were used to validate the algorithms' performance. The experimental results presented herein break down the performance for each sensing modality, and a detailed analysis of the performance is also discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of driver genes for critical forms of COVID-19 in a deeply phenotyped young patient cohort

The drivers of critical coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remain unknown. Given major confounding factors such as age and comorbidities, true mediators of this condition have remained elusive. We used a multi-omics analysis combined with artificial intelligence in a young patient cohort where major comorbidities were excluded at the onset. The cohort included 47 “critical” (in the intensive care unit under mechanical ventilation) and 25 “non-critical” (in a non-critical care ward) patients with COVID-19 and 22 healthy individuals. The analyses included whole-genome sequencing, whole-blood RNA sequencing, plasma and blood mononuclear cell proteomics, cytokine profiling, and high-throughput immunophenotyping. An ensemble of machine learning, deep learning, quantum annealing, and structural causal modeling were used. Patients with critical COVID-19 were characterized by exacerbated inflammation, perturbed lymphoid and myeloid compartments, increased coagulation, and viral cell biology. Among differentially expressed genes, we observed up-regulation of the metalloprotease ADAM9. This gene signature was validated in a second independent cohort of 81 critical and 73 recovered patients with COVID-19 and was further confirmed at the transcriptional and protein level and by proteolytic activity. Ex vivo ADAM9 inhibition decreased severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) uptake and replication in human lung epithelial cells. In conclusion, within a young, otherwise healthy, cohort of individuals with COVID-19, we provide the landscape of biological perturbations in vivo where a unique gene signature differentiated critical from non-critical patients. We further identified ADAM9 as a driver of disease severity and a candidate therapeutic target.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

FY21 Progress Report: SRNL Analysis of ICCWR LCM and WAMS data for Corrosion and Cracking

The development of algorithms for machine learning and data analysis for the 3013 Surveillance Program is a collaborative effort by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and the University of South Carolina (USC). For corrosion detection, Laser Confocal Microscope (LCM) or Wide Area 3D Measurement System (WAMS) data is extracted from large binary files, with software written to convert the data to physical attributes (e.g., height, color and grayscale values; all as functions of a location in a plane projection). A user-friendly Matlab Graphical User Interface (GUI) that reads data from either LCM or WAMS files was developed to integrate input data with software developed for processing and evaluation. The GUI can selectively download binary data, interrogate data attributes, label data, flag significant features, execute Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, output parameters for trained ML algorithms, report ML model accuracy with respect to labeled data, and generate graphical representations for various analyses. Features can be called out by user-specified thresholds, manual labeling or machine learning algorithms when they have been completed. The ability to rapidly label data is important because of the volume of data required for training machine learning algorithms. The GUI has the flexibility to allow addition of improved ML algorithms, methods for data visualization, and statistical computations. Statistical analyses via the GUI include areas of pits within a defined range of pit depths, correlations between Red-Green-Blue (RGB) or grayscale intensity and relative surface height, covariances between values associated with features, and feature histograms. The development of supervised machine learning algorithms, however, has been hindered by a lack of training data. The machine learning algorithms for crack identification are being refined but require improvements to the true positive rate for crack detection. This shortcoming is an artifact of the limited training data currently available, perhaps more so than the structure of the neural networks. At present, the best results are had from a consensus over an ensemble of randomly generated Deep Neural Network (DNN) or Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) algorithms. Although the consensus accuracy method has yielded optimum true positive and true negative rates in excess of 80%, additional validation testing is necessary. In addition to the suite of LCM data that was initially used, and which represents the majority of the work presented in this report, WAMS image data was also reviewed at a preliminary level. The review included a comparison between image resolution and dynamic range for each method. WAMS (ZON file) image data was found to have a pixel pitch of 3.69μm compared to 1 μm for the LCM (vk4 file) data, which implies a lower resolution for the WAMS images. Conversely, the ratio of dynamic range of the WAMS data to the LCM data was approximately 41:20 for height data, suggesting that information from WAMS should more accurately determine the depth of pits. At present, the significance of the greater dynamic range of the WAMS data relative to the LCM data has not yet been evaluated.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Solar Energy Product Based on Cloud Coverage Estimation Using Machine Learning Methods

Cloud cover estimation from images taken by sky-facing cameras can be an important input for analyzing current weather conditions and estimating photovoltaic power generation. The constant change in position, shape, and density of clouds, however, makes the development of a robust computational method for cloud cover estimation challenging. Accurately determining the edge of clouds and hence the separation between clouds and clear sky is difficult and often impossible. Toward determining cloud cover for estimating photovoltaic output, we propose using machine learning methods for cloud segmentation. We compare several methods including a classical regression model, deep learning methods, and boosting methods that combine results from the other machine learning models. To train each of the machine learning models with various sky conditions, we supplemented the existing Singapore whole sky imaging segmentation database with hazy and overcast images collected by a camera-equipped Waggle sensor node. We found that the U-Net architecture, one of the deep neural networks we utilized, segmented cloud pixels most accurately. However, the accuracy of segmenting cloud pixels did not guarantee high accuracy of estimating solar irradiance. We confirmed that the cloud cover ratio is directly related to solar irradiance. Additionally, we confirmed that solar irradiance and solar power output are closely related; hence, by predicting solar irradiance, we can estimate solar power output. This study demonstrates that sky-facing cameras with machine learning methods can be used to estimate solar power output. This ground-based approach provides an inexpensive way to understand solar irradiance and estimate production from photovoltaic solar facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coherence-Induced Deep Thermalization Transition in Random Permutation Quantum Dynamics

We report a phase transition in the projected ensemble—the collection of postmeasurement wave functions of a local subsystem obtained by measuring its complement. The transition emerges in systems undergoing random permutation dynamics, a type of quantum time evolution wherein computational basis states are shuffled without creating superpositions. It separates a phase exhibiting deep thermalization, where the projected ensemble is distributed over Hilbert space in a maximally entropic fashion (Haar random), from a phase where it is minimally entropic (“classical bit-string ensemble”). Crucially, this deep thermalization transition is invisible to the subsystem’s density matrix, which always exhibits thermalization to infinite temperature across the phase diagram. Through a combination of analytical arguments and numerical simulations, we show that the transition is tuned by the total amount of injected by the input state and the measurement basis, and is exhibited robustly across different microscopic models. Our findings represent a novel form of ergodicity-breaking universality in quantum many-body dynamics, characterized not by a failure of regular thermalization, but rather by a failure of deep thermalization.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Ultrasound Image Augmentation and Ensemble Predictions to Prevent Machine-Learning Model Overfitting

Deep learning predictive models have the potential to simplify and automate medical imaging diagnostics by lowering the skill threshold for image interpretation. However, this requires predictive models that are generalized to handle subject variability as seen clinically. Here, we highlight methods to improve test accuracy of an image classifier model for shrapnel identification using tissue phantom image sets. Using a previously developed image classifier neural network—termed ShrapML—blind test accuracy was less than 70% and was variable depending on the training/test data setup, as determined by a leave one subject out (LOSO) holdout methodology. Introduction of affine transformations for image augmentation or MixUp methodologies to generate additional training sets improved model performance and overall accuracy improved to 75%. Further improvements were made by aggregating predictions across five LOSO holdouts. This was done by bagging confidences or predictions from all LOSOs or the top-3 LOSO confidence models for each image prediction. Top-3 LOSO confidence bagging performed best, with test accuracy improved to greater than 85% accuracy for two different blind tissue phantoms. This was confirmed by gradient-weighted class activation mapping to highlight that the image classifier was tracking shrapnel in the image sets. Overall, data augmentation and ensemble prediction approaches were suitable for creating more generalized predictive models for ultrasound image analysis, a critical step for real-time diagnostic deployment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transfer learning of neural surrogates on multifidelity groundwater simulations

Multifidelity data used in the paper published in Advances in Water Resources 206 (2025) 105140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.105140 The code used to process the data is openly available on GitHub at https://github.com/Model-Reduction-and-UQ-Group/Transfer_Learning_K_reconstruction Computationally inexpensive surrogates of process-based models, such as deep neural networks, enable ensemble-based computations used in risk assessment, data assimilation, etc. However, generation of large datasets required to train a neural network can be as expensive as the ensemble simulations themselves. We ameliorate this challenge by using data from multifidelity (MF) groundwater simulations and transfer learning (TL) to reduce data generation costs while maintaining model accuracy. As a computational example, we train a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to reconstruct permeability fields from saturation maps derived from a multiphase flow model. Starting with very low- and low-fidelity data generated on increasingly coarse meshes, we pretrain the CNN, followed by output-layer training and fine-tuning using only a limited number of high-fidelity samples. We demonstrate the surrogate’s robustness when interpreting low-quality inputs—such as interpolated maps or data affected by noise—which has strong implications for the applicability in practical hydrogeological scenarios. This multilevel MF-TL strategy achieves a favorable trade-off between computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, significantly outperforming high-fidelity-only approaches under the same computational budget.

Chiofalo, Alessia [University of Bologna] (ORCID:0↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable Bayesian optimization with randomized prior networks

Several fundamental problems in science and engineering consist of global optimization tasks involving unknown high-dimensional (black-box) functions that map a set of controllable variables to the outcomes of an expensive experiment. Bayesian Optimization (BO) techniques are known to be effective in tackling global optimization problems using a relatively small number objective function evaluations, but their performance suffers when dealing with high-dimensional outputs. To overcome the major challenge of dimensionality, here we propose a deep learning framework for BO and sequential decision making based on bootstrapped ensembles of neural architectures with randomized priors. Using appropriate architecture choices, we show that the proposed framework can approximate functional relationships between design variables and quantities of interest, even in cases where the latter take values in high-dimensional vector spaces or even infinite-dimensional function spaces. In the context of BO, we augmented the proposed probabilistic surrogates with re-parameterized Monte Carlo approximations of multiple-point (parallel) acquisition functions, as well as methodological extensions for accommodating black-box constraints and multi-fidelity information sources. We test the proposed framework against state-of-the-art methods for BO and demonstrate superior performance across several challenging tasks with high-dimensional outputs, including a constrained multi-fidelity optimization task involving shape optimization of rotor blades in turbo-machinery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerated Depth Computation for Surface Boxplots with Deep Learning

Functional depth is a well-known technique used to derive descriptive statistics (e.g., median, quartiles, and outliers) for 1D data. Surface boxplots extend this concept to ensembles of images, helping scientists and users identify representative and outlier images. However, the computational time for surface boxplots increases cubically with the number of ensemble members, making it impractical for integration into visualization tools. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning solution for efficient depth prediction and computation of surface boxplots for time-varying ensemble data. Our deep learning framework accurately predicts member depths in a surface boxplot, achieving average speedups of 6X on a CPU and 15X on a GPU for the 2D Red Sea dataset with 50 ensemble members compared to the traditional depth computation algorithm. Our approach achieves at least a 99% level of rank preservation, with order flipping occurring only at pairs with extremely similar depth values that pose no statistical differences. This local flipping does not significantly impact the overall depth order of the ensemble members.

Han, Mengjiao↗