Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Deep ensemble”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

SST Variation Due to Interactive Convective-Radiative Processes

The recent linking of Cloud-Resolving Models (CRMs) to Ocean-Mixed Layer (OML) models has provided a powerful new means of quantifying the role of cloud systems in ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is due to the fact that the CRM can better resolve clouds and cloud systems and allow for explicit cloud-radiation interaction. For example, Anderson (1997) applied an atmospheric forcing associated with a CRM simulated squall line to a 3-D OML model (one way or passive interaction). His results suggested that the spatial variability resulting from the squall forcing can last at least 24 hours when forced with otherwise spatially uniform fluxes. In addition, the sea surface salinity (SSS) variability continuously decreased following the forcing, while some of the SST variability remained when a diurnal mixed layer capped off the surface structure. The forcing used in the OML model, however, focused on shorter time (8 h) and smaller spatial scales (100-120 km). In this study, the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE; 512 x 512 x 23 cu km, 2-km horizontal resolution) is used to simulate convective active episodes occurring in the Western Pacific warm pool and Eastern Atlantic regions. The model is integrated for seven days, and the simulated results are coupled to an OML model to better understand the impact of precipitation and changes in the planetary boundary layer upon SST variation. We will specifically examine and compare the results of linking the OML model with various spatially-averaged outputs from GCE simulations (i.e., 2 km vs. 10-50 km horizontal resolutions), in order to help understand the SST sensitivity to multi-scale influences. This will allow us to assess the importance of explicitly simulated deep and shallow clouds, as well as the subgrid-scale effects (in coarse-model runs) upon SST variation. Results using both 1-D and 2-D OML models will be evaluated to assess the effects of horizontal advection.

Tao, W.-K.↗

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Cloud microphysics are inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles (i.e., pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail). Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep cloud systems in the west Pacific warm pool region, in the sub-tropics (Florida) and in the mid-latitude using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low 'clean' concentration and a high 'dirty' concentration.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Cloud microphysics are inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e.,pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions.A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. Besides the initial differences in aerosol concentration, preliminary results indicate that the low CCN concentration case produces rainfall at the surface sooner than the high CCN case but has less cloud water mass aloft. Because the spectral-bin model explicitly calculates and allows for the examination of both the mass and number concentration of species in each size categor, a detailed analysis of the instantaneous size spectrum can be obtained for the two cases. It is shown that since the low CCN case produces fewer droplets, larger sized develop due to the greater condensational and collectional growth, leading to a broader size spectrum in comparison to the high CCN case.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Deep HST/STIS Visible-Light Imaging of Debris Systems Around Solar Analog Hosts

We present new Hubble Space Telescope observations of three a priori known starlight-scattering circumstellar debris systems (CDSs) viewed at intermediate inclinations around nearby close-solar analog stars: HD 207129, HD202628, and HD 202917. Each of these CDSs possesses ring-like components that are more massive analogs of our solar systems Edgeworth Kuiper Belt. These systems were chosen for follow-up observations to provide imaging with higher fidelity and better sensitivity for the sparse sample of solar-analog CDSs that range over two decades in systemic ages, with HD 202628 and HD 207129 (both approx. 2.3 Gyr) currently the oldest CDSs imaged in visible or near-IR light. These deep (10-14 ks) observations, made with six-roll point-spread-function template visible-light coronagraphy using the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph, were designed to better reveal their angularly large debris rings of diffuse low surface brightness, and for all targets probe their exo-ring environments for starlight-scattering materials that present observational challenges for current ground-based facilities and instruments. Contemporaneously also observing with a narrower occulter position, these observations additionally probe the CDS endo-ring environments that are seen to be relatively devoid of scatterers. We discuss the morphological, geometrical, and photometric properties of these CDSs also in the context of other CDSs hosted by FGK stars that we have previously imaged as a homogeneously observed ensemble. From this combined sample we report a general decay in quiescent-disk F disk /F star optical brightness approx. t( exp.-0.8), similar to what is seen at thermal IR wavelengths, and CDSs with a significant diversity in scattering phase asymmetries, and spatial distributions of their starlight-scattering grains.

starlight-scattering circumstellar debris systems ↗

Causes of Long-Term Drought in the United States Great Plains

This study examines the causes of long term droughts in the United States Great Plains (USGP). The focus is on the relative roles of slowly varying SSTs and interactions with soil moisture. The results from ensembles of long term (1930-1999) simulations carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to- Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) show that the SSTs account for about 1/3 of the total low frequency rainfall variance in the USGP. Results from idealized experiments with climatological SST suggest that the remaining low frequency variance in the USGP precipitation is the result of interactions with soil moisture. In particular, simulations with soil moisture feedback show a five-fold increase in the variance in annual USGP precipitation compared with simulations in which the soil feedback is excluded. In addition to increasing variance, the interactions with the soil introduce year-to-year memory in the hydrological cycle that is consistent with a red noise process, in which the deep soil is forced by white noise and damped with a time scale of about 2 years. As such, the role of low frequency SST variability is to introduce a bias to the net forcing on the soil moisture that drives the random process preferentially to either wet or dry conditions.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

Advances in Hyperspectral Image Classification Methods for Vegetation and Agricultural Cropland Studies

Hyperspectral data are becoming more widely available via sensors on airborne and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platforms, as well as proximal platforms. While space-based hyperspectral data continue to be limited in availability, multiple spaceborne Earth-observing missions on traditional platforms are scheduled for launch, and companies are experimenting with small satellites for constellations to observe the Earth, as well as for planetary missions. Land cover mapping via classification is one of the most important applications of hyperspectral remote sensing and will increase in significance as time series of imagery are more readily available. However, while the narrow bands of hyperspectral data provide new opportunities for chemistry-based modeling and mapping, challenges remain. Hyperspectral data are high dimensional, and many bands are highly correlated or irrelevant for a given classification problem. For supervised classification methods, the quantity of training data is typically limited relative to the dimension of the input space. The resulting Hughes phenomenon, often referred to as the curse of dimensionality, increases potential for unstable parameter estimates, overfitting, and poor generalization of classifiers. This is particularly problematic for parametric approaches such as Gaussian maximum likelihood–based classifiers that have been the backbone of pixel-based multispectral classification methods. This issue has motivated investigation of alternatives, including regularization of the class covariance matrices, ensembles of weak classifiers, development of feature selection and extraction methods, adoption of nonparametric classifiers, and exploration of methods to exploit unlabeled samples via semi-supervised and active learning. Data sets are also quite large, motivating computationally efficient algorithms and implementations. This chapter provides an overview of the recent advances in classification methods for mapping vegetation using hyperspectral data. Three data sets that are used in the hyperspectral classification literature (e.g., Botswana Hyperion satellite data and AVIRIS airborne data over both Kennedy Space Center and Indian Pines) are described in Section 3.2 and used to illustrate methods described in the chapter. An additional high-resolution hyperspectral data set acquired by a SpecTIR sensor on an airborne platform over the Indian Pines area is included to exemplify the use of new deep learning approaches, and a multiplatform example of airborne hyperspectral data is provided to demonstrate transfer learning in hyperspectral image classification. Classical approaches for supervised and unsupervised feature selection and extraction are reviewed in Section 3.3. In particular, nonlinearities exhibited in hyperspectral imagery have motivated development of nonlinear feature extraction methods in manifold learning, which are outlined in Section 3.3.1.4. Spatial context is also important in classification of both natural vegetation with complex textural patterns and large agricultural fields with significant local variability within fields. Approaches to exploit spatial features at both the pixel level (e.g., co-occurrence–based texture and extended morphological attribute profiles [EMAPs]) and integration of segmentation approaches (e.g., HSeg) are discussed in this context in Section 3.3.2. Recently, classification methods that leverage nonparametric methods originating in the machine learning community have grown in popularity. An overview of both widely used and newly emerging approaches, including support vector machines (SVMs), Gaussian mixture models, and deep learning based on convolutional neural networks is provided in Section 3.4. Strategies to exploit unlabeled samples, including active learning and metric learning, which combine feature extraction and augmentation of the pool of training samples in an active learning framework, are outlined in Section 3.5. Integration of image segmentation with classification to accommodate spatial coherence typically observed in vegetation is also explored, including as an integrated active learning system. Exploitation of multisensor strategies for augmenting the pool of training samples is investigated via a transfer learning framework in Section 3.5.1.2. Finally, we look to the future, considering opportunities soon to be provided by new paradigms, as hyperspectral sensing is becoming common at multiple scales from ground-based and airborne autonomous vehicles to manned aircraft and space-based platforms.

Pasolli, Edoardo↗

Storm-Associated Microwave Radiometric Signatures in the Frequency Range of 90-220 GHz

Radiometric measurements were made by a millimeter-wave imaging radiometer (MIR) at the frequencies of 89, 150, 183.3 +/- 1, 183.3 +/- 3, 183.3 +/- 7, and 220 GHz aboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft at an altitude of about 20 km over two rainstorms: one in the western Pacific Ocean on 19 January 1993 and another in southern Florida on 5 October 1993. These measurements were complemented by nearly simultaneous observations by other sensors aboard the same aircraft and another aircraft flying along the same path. Analysis of data from these measurements, aided by radiative transfer and radar reflectivity calculations of hydrometeor profiles, which arc generated by a general cloud ensemble model, demonstrates the utility of these frequencies for studying the structure of frozen hydrometeors associated with storms. Particular emphasis is placed on the three water vapor channels near 183.3 GHz. Results show that the radiometric signatures measured by these channels over the storm-associated scattering media bear a certain resemblance to those previously observed over a clear and fairly dry atmosphere with a cold ocean background. Both of these atmospheric conditions are characterized by a small amount of water vapor above a cold background. Radiative transfer calculations were made at these water vapor channels for a number of relative humidity profiles characterizing dry atmospheres over an ocean surface. The results are compared with the measurements to infer some characteristics of the environment near the scattering media. Furthermore, radiometric signatures from these channels display unique features for towering deep convective cells that could be used to identify the presence of such cells in storms.

Wang, James R.↗

Mechanisms of Diurnal Precipitation over the United States Great Plains: A Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

Lee, M.-I.↗

Estimation of Snow Mass Information via Assimilation of C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar Backscatter Observations Into an Advanced and Surface Model

This study assimilated Sentinel-1 C-band backscatter observations over snow-covered terrain into the Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model using support vector machine (SVM) regression and an ensemble Kalman filter to improve the modeled terrestrial snow mass estimates. The data assimilation (DA) experiment was conducted across Western Colorado from September 2016 to August 2017. As part of the DA experiments, the impact of a rule-based update was evaluated by comparing snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates via DA (with [ DAv1 ] and without [ DAv2 ] the rule-based update) against SNOTEL SWE measurements. Results confirmed that rule-based update helped minimize SVM controllability issues, and in turn, improved the accuracy of SWE estimates relative to both open loop (OL) and DAv2 . Comparison of SWE estimates from Sentinel-1 DAv1 against SNOTEL SWE revealed that 75% of stations showed improvements in bias and correlation coefficient relative to the OL. Assimilated SWE estimates also showed statistical improvements during both the snow accumulation and snow ablation periods. However, unbiased root mean square error showed a slight increase during the snow ablation period due to the large variability in the electromagnetic response of C-band backscatter over deep and/or wet snow. Improvement of the SWE estimates also resulted in improving river discharge estimates compared to in situ measurements. River discharge using Sentinel-1 DAv1 improved the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency at all available stations. These results suggest that physically constrained SVM can serve as an efficient observation operator for snow mass DA through explicit consideration of the first-order C-band scattering mechanisms over different terrestrial snow conditions.

Jongmin Park↗

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗

Geology of Southern Guinevere Planitia, Venus, based on analyses of Goldstone radar data

The ensemble of 41 backscatter images of Venus acquired by the S Band (12.6 cm) Goldstone radar system covers approx. 35 million km and includes the equatorial portion of Guinevere Planitia, Navka Planitia, Heng-O Chasma, and Tinatin Planitia, and parts of Devana Chasma and Phoebe Regio. The images and associated altimetry data combine relatively high spatial resolution (1 to 10 km) with small incidence angles (less than 10 deg) for regions not covered by either Venera Orbiter or Arecibo radar data. Systematic analyses of the Goldstone data show that: (1) Volcanic plains dominate, including groups of small volcanic constructs, radar bright flows on a NW-SE arm of Phoebe Regio and on Ushas Mons and circular volcano-tectonic depressions; (2) Some of the regions imaged by Goldstone have high radar cross sections, including the flows on Ushas Mons and the NW-SE arm of Phoebe Regio, and several other unnamed hills, ridged terrains, and plains areas; (3) A 1000 km diameter multiringed structure is observed and appears to have a morphology not observed in Venera data (The northern section corresponds to Heng-O Chasma); (4) A 150 km wide, 2 km deep, 1400 km long rift valley with upturned flanks is located on the western flank of Phoebe Regio and extends into Devana Chasma; (5) A number of structures can be discerned in the Goldstone data, mainly trending NW-SE and NE-SW, directions similar to those discerned in Pioneer-Venus topography throughout the equatorial region; and (6) The abundance of circular and impact features is similar to the plains global average defined from Venera and Arecibo data, implying that the terrain imaged by Goldstone has typical crater retention ages, measured in hundreds of millions of years. The rate of resurfacing is less than or equal to 4 km/Ga.

Arvidson, R. E.↗

The Impact of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulation of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics parameterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT Center to select NOAA/NWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boundary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage of lightning activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

Comet Mineralogy as Inferred from Infrared Spectra of Comets

For most comets, infrared (IR) spectroscopy (remote sensing) is the method through which we diagnose the mineralogy and size distribution of dust in their comae. The shape and contrast of the IR spectral features depend on the particle size: optically active minerals (absorbing of visible and near-IR solar photons) and submicron solid grains or highly porous (> 90% vacuum) grains primarily contribute to the shapes of the observed resonances. Comet mineralogies typically are determined by fitting thermal emission models of ensembles of discrete mineral grains to observed IR spectral energy distributions. The absorptivities (Q-abs) and scattering efficiencies (Q-scat) of the discrete mineral grains are computed using Mie scattering, Maxwell-Garnet mixing, Discrete Dipole Approximation, and Multi-Layered Sphere codes. These techniques when applied to crystalline minerals, specifically olivine (Mg_x, Fe_1-x)2 Si04, x>0.9, require the use of ellipsoidal shaped particles with elongated axial ratios or hollow spheres to produce the shapes of the resonances observed both from comet comae and laboratory samples. The wavelength positions of the distinct resonances from submicron-radii crystalline silicates, as well as their thermal equilibrium temperatures, constrain the crystalline olivine to have a relatively high Mg-content (x>0.9, or Fo>90). Only resonances computed for submicron Mg-rich crystalline olivine and crystalline orthopyroxene match the observed IR spectral features. However, this has led to the interpretation that micron-radii and larger crystals are absent from comet comae. Furthermore, the mass fraction of silicate crystals is dependent upon whether just the submicron portion of the size distribution is being compared or the submicron crystals compare to the aggregates of porous amorphous silicates that are computationally tractable as porous spheres. We will discuss the Deep Impact results as examples of these challenges to interpreting mid-IR spectra of short-period comets.

Wooden, Diane H.↗

Recovery of Deep Moonquake Focal Mechanisms

Deep moonquakes are clustered not only in space but also in time: their recurrence times correspond to the durations of the anomalistic and draconic months, with some clusters preferring one of the two periods, while others are active with both periods. A key constraint for the understanding of the connection between the orbital motion of the Moon and its seismic activity is the focal mechanism: the orientation of the fault surface on which failure occurs during the quake. Due to the small aperture of the Apollo seismic network and the strong scattering of seismic waves within the lunar crust, the evaluation of P wave first motions to constrain the strike and dip of the fault planes is not feasible. Instead we evaluate the amplitude ratios of P and S waves. Seismograms are rotated into the P-SV-SH coordinate frame and amplitudes are determined as averages over short time windows after the arrival to reduce the impact of the scattering coda, which is independent of the source orientation. We allow for reversals of the fault motion, as observed for some clusters in previous studies, by taking into account the absolute amplitude only, without sign. An empirical site correction factor is applied to correct for amplitude distortions in the crust. We construct ensembles of fault plane solutions using an exhaustive grid search by accepting all orientations that reproduce the measured amplitude ratios within the observed standard deviations. Since all events of a given cluster are supposed to share the same fault plane, the combination of the individual inversion results further constrains the orientation. We evaluate 106 events from 25 different moonquake clusters. The most active cluster A001 contributes 37 events, while others contribute 1 to 9 events per cluster. Comparison of fault orientations with the variation of the tidal stress results in preferred orientations.

Weber, Renee C.↗

Infrared Spectroscopy of Star Formation in Galactic and Extragalactic Regions

In this program we proposed to perform a series of spectroscopic studies, including data analysis and modeling, of star formation regions using an ensemble of archival space-based data from the Infrared Space Observatory's Long Wavelength Spectrometer and Short Wavelength Spectrometer, and to take advantage of other spectroscopic databases including the first results from SIRTF. Our emphasis has been on star formation in external, bright IR galaxies, but other areas of research have included young, low or high mass pre-main sequence stars in star formation regions, and the galactic center. The OH lines in the far infrared were proposed as one key focus of this inquiry, because the Principal Investigator (H. Smith) had a full set of OH IR lines from IS0 observations. It was planned that during the proposed 2-1/2 year timeframe of the proposal other data (including perhaps from SIRTF) would become available, and we intended to be responsive to these and other such spectroscopic data sets. The program has the following goals: 1) Refine the data analysis of IS0 observations to obtain deeper and better SNR results on selected sources. The IS0 data itself underwent pipeline 10 reductions in early 2001, and the more 'hands-on data reduction packages' have been released. The IS0 Fabry-Perot database is particularly sensitive to noise and can have slight calibration errors, and improvements are anticipated. We plan to build on these deep analysis tools and contribute to their development. Model the atomic and molecular line shapes, in particular the OH lines, using revised montecarlo techniques developed by the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite (SWAS) team at the Center for Astrophysics. 2) 3) Use newly acquired space-based SIRTF or SOFIA spectroscopic data as they become available, and contribute to these observing programs as appropriate. 4) Attend scientific meetings and workshops. 5) E&PO activities, especially as related to infrared astrophysics and/or spectroscopy.

Smith, Howard A.↗

Causes of Long-Term Drought in the United States Great Plains

The United States Great Plains (USGP) experienced a number of multi-year droughts during the last century, most notably the droughts of the 1930s and 1950s. This study examines the causes of such droughts using ensembles of long term (1930-1999) simulations carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show that the model produces long-term (multi-year) variations in the USGP precipitation that are similar to those observed. A correlative analysis suggests that the ensemble mean low frequency (time scales longer than about 6 years) rainfall variations in the USGP are linked to a pan-Pacific pattern of SST variability that is the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) in the low frequency SST data. The link between the SST and the Great Plains precipitation is confirmed in idealized AGCM simulations, in which the model is forced by the 2 polarities of the pan-Pacific SST pattern. The idealized simulations further show that it is primarily the tropical part of the SST anomalies that influence the USGP. As such, the USGP tend to have above normal precipitation when the tropical Pacific SSTs are above normal, while there is a tendency for drought when the tropical SSTs are cold. The upper tropospheric response to the pan-Pacific SST EOF shows a global-scale pattern with a strong wave response in the Pacific and a substantial zonally-symmetric component in which USGP pluvial (drought) conditions are associated with reduced (enhanced) heights throughout the extra-tropics. The potential predictability of rainfall in the USGP associated with SSTs is rather modest, with on average about 1/3 of the total low frequency rainfall variance forced by SST anomalies. Further idealized experiments with climatological SST, suggest that the remaining low frequency variance in the USGP precipitation is the result of interactions with soil moisture. In particular, simulations with soil moisture feedback show a six-fold increase in the variance in annual USGP precipitation compared with simulations in which the soil feedback is excluded. In addition to increasing variance, the interactions with the soil introduce year-to-year memory in the hydrological cycle that is consistent with a red noise process, in which the low frequencies in the deep soil are the result of integrating a net forcing (precipitation-evaporation-runoff) that is white noise on interannual time scales. As such, the role of low frequency SST variability is to introduce a bias to the net forcing on the soil moisture that drives the random process preferentially to either wet or dry conditions.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

Deep near-infrared survey of the Southern Sky (DENIS)

DENIS (Deep Near-Infrared Survey of the Southern Sky) will be the first complete census of astronomical sources in the near-infrared spectral range. The challenges of this novel survey are both scientific and technical. Phenomena radiating in the near-infrared range from brown dwarfs to galaxies in the early stages of cosmological evolution, the scientific exploitation of data relevant over such a wide range requires pooling expertise from several of the leading European astronomical centers. The technical challenges of a project which will provide an order of magnitude more sources than given by the IRAS space mission, and which will involve advanced data-handling and image-processing techniques, likewise require pooling of hardware and software resources, as well as of human expertise. The DENIS project team is composed of some 40 scientists, computer specialists, and engineers located in 5 European Community countries (France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, and Spain), with important contributions from specialists in Australia, Brazil, Chile, and Hungary. DENIS will survey the entire southern sky in 3 colors, namely in the I band at a wavelength of 0.8 micron, in the 1.25 micron J band, and in the 2.15 micron K' band. The sensitivity limits will be 18th magnitude in the I band, 16th in the J band, and 14.5th in the K' band. The angular resolution achieved will be 1 arcsecond in the I band, and 3.0 arcseconds in the J and K' bands. The European Southern Observatory 1 m telescope on La Silla will be dedicated to survey use during operations expected to last four years, commencing in late 1993. DENIS aims to provide the astronomical community with complete digitized infrared images of the full southern sky and a catalogue of extracted objects, both of the best quality and in readily accessible form. This will be achieved through dedicated software packages and specialized catalogues, and with assistance from the Leiden and Paris Data Analysis Centers. The data will be mailed on DAT tapes from La Silla to the two Data Analysis Centers for further processing. Two centers are necessary because of the shear quantity of data and because of the complementary roles the Centers will develop, each exploiting its own particular expertise. The Leiden Data Analysis Center (LDAC) will extract objects, establish their parameters, and archive them into a source catalogue. The LDAC will collaborate with the Groningen Space Research group that has gained experience in infrared image handling from the IRAS satellite. The Paris Data Analysis Center (PDAC) will be responsible for archiving and preprocessing the raw data to provide a homogeneous set of data suitable for further reduction in both the Leiden and Paris data analysis streams. The PDAC will also extract and archive images for the sources flagged by the LDAC as extended, and create a catalogue of galaxies. In exploiting the DENIS data we foresee the collaboration with other data analysis centers, such as the Observatoire de Lyon where the relevant DENIS catalogue of galaxies can be incorporated into their extragalactic database. The Point Sources and the Small Extended Sources catalogues could be incorporated in the Late Type Star database at Montpellier, and in the SIMBAD database as CDS. At Groningen the IRAS Point Source catalogue and/or image data can be merged with the DENIS catalogues. At Meudon algorithms and software will be developed with main goal assessing the limits reachable for the homogeneity and intrinsic consistency between the ensemble of the images in the data base (flat-fielding, relative positioning of the fields, bootstrapped flux calibration) but also for the data analysis.

Deul, E.↗