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Human Mars Missions: Cost Driven Architecture Assessments

This report investigates various methods of reducing the cost in space transportation systems for human Mars missions. The reference mission for this task is a mission currently under study at NASA. called the Mars Design Reference Mission, characterized by In-Situ propellant production at Mars. This study mainly consists of comparative evaluations to the reference mission with a view to selecting strategies that would reduce the cost of the Mars program as a whole. One of the objectives is to understand the implications of certain Mars architectures, mission modes, vehicle configurations, and potentials for vehicle reusability. The evaluations start with year 2011-2014 conjunction missions which were characterized by their abort-to-the-surface mission abort philosophy. Variations within this mission architecture, as well as outside the set to other architectures (not predicated on an abort to surface philosophy) were evaluated. Specific emphasis has been placed on identifying and assessing overall mission risk. Impacts that Mars mission vehicles might place upon the Space Station, if it were to be used as an assembly or operations base, were also discussed. Because of the short duration of this study only on a few propulsion elements were addressed (nuclear thermal, cryogenic oxygen-hydrogen, cryogenic oxygen-methane, and aerocapture). Primary ground rules and assumptions were taken from NASA material used in Marshall Space Flight Center's own assessment done in 1997.

Interplanetary Mission

RESOLVE Mission Architecture for Lunar Resource Prospecting and Utilization

Design Reference Mission (DRM) evaluations were performed for The Regolith & Environment Science, and Oxygen & Lunar Volatile Extraction (RESOLVE) project to determine future flight mission feasibility and understand potential mission environment impacts on hardware requirements, science/resource assessment objectives, and mission planning. DRM version 2.2 (DRM 2.2) is presented for a notional flight of the RESOLVE payload for lunar resource ground truth and utilization (Figure 1) [1]. The rover/payload deploys on a 10 day surface mission to the Cabeus crater near the lunar south pole in May of 2016. A drill, four primary science instruments, and a high temperature chemical reactor will acquire and characterize water and other volatiles in the near sub-surface, and perform demonstrations of In-Situ Re-source Utilization (ISRU). DRM 2.2 is a reference point, and will be periodically revised to accommodate and incorporate changes to project approach or implementation, and to explore mission alternatives such as landing site or opportunity.

George, J. A.

Solar Electric and Chemical Propulsion for a Titan Mission

Systems analyses were performed for a Titan Explorer Mission characterized by Earth-Saturn transfer stages using solar electric power generation and propulsion systems for primary interplanetary propulsion, and chemical propulsion for capture at Titan. An examination of a range of system factors was performed to determine their effect on the payload delivery capability to Titan. The effect of varying launch vehicle type, solar array power level, ion thruster number, specific impulse, trip time, and Titan capture stage chemical propellant choice was investigated. The major purpose of the study was to demonstrate the efficacy of applying advanced ion propulsion system technologies like NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT), coupled with state-of-the-art (SOA) and advanced chemical technologies to a Flagship class mission. This study demonstrated that a NASA Design Reference Mission (DRM) payload of 406 kg could be successfully delivered to Titan using the baseline advanced ion propulsion system in conjunction with SOA chemical propulsion for Titan capture. In addition, the SEPS/Chemical system of this study is compared to an all- chemical NASA DRM mission. Results showed that the NEXT- based SEPS/Chemical system was able to deliver the required payload to Titan in 5 years less transfer time and on a smaller launch vehicle than the SOA chemical option.

Cupples, Michael

Ares V: Supporting Space Exploration from LEO to Beyond

This slide presentation reviews the development of the Ares V launch vehicle. The Ares V is designed as a heavy lift vehicle to send cargo only or in combination with the Ares I will send crews to the moon. The Ares V vehicle design is evolving and will make the authority to proceed milestone in 2011. The key milestones are given with the first mission flight in Fall of 2018. The Design Reference Mission (DRM) for the Ares V is reviewed, including a table with the events from liftoff through LSAM/CEV separation, in time and altitude. The Ares V will deliver 6 times more mass to orbit than currently launch vehicles can.

Sumrall, Phil

Mission Design for the Mars Environmental Survey

The purpose of this paper is to discuss some of the pertinent mission design issues associated with MESUR. Some details are given on the mission aspects of the network architecture studies. In addition, there is a description of the design trades that have been performed for pathfinder and the resulting reference mission design.

Mars

Tool for simulating space exploration initiative (SEI) operations as a means of obtaining intelligent systems requirements

The Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center Automation and Robotics Division has developed a simulation tool for use in evaluating the feasibility and effectiveness of proposed candidate mission concepts, such as the First Lunar Outpost design reference missions. The tool helps in defining requirements for such missions at the beginning of the definition activities and can be applied iteratively thereafter on a short cycle basis as changes are made to the mission definition. The simulation is applicable to the amount and capabilities of automation and robotics; number and skills of crew; amount of engineering work, science, and in-space materials utilization to be accomplished; impact of provision for maintenance and repair; and flight schedules and manifests. The simulation accounts for supply and demand of resources to accomplish tasks and accounts for elapsed time in carrying out mission processes and tasks.

Erickson, Jon D.

The Stellar Imager (SI)"Vision Mission"

The Stellar Imager (SI) is a "Vision" mission in the Sun-Earth Connection (SEC) Roadmap, conceived for the purpose of understanding the effects of stellar magnetic fields, the dynamos that generate them, and the internal structure and dynamics of the stars in which they exist. The ultimate goal is to achieve the best possible forecasting of solar/stellar magnetic activity and its impact on life in the Universe. The science goals of SI require an ultra-high angular resolution, at ultraviolet wavelengths, on the order of 100 micro-arcsec and thus baselines on the order of 0.5 km. These requirements call for a large, multi-spacecraft (less than 20) imaging interferometer, utilizing precision formation flying in a stable environment, such as in a Lissajous orbit around the Sun-Earth L2 point. SI's resolution will make it an invaluable resource for many other areas of astrophysics, including studies of AGN s, supernovae, cataclysmic variables, young stellar objects, QSO's, and stellar black holes. ongoing mission concept and technology development studies for SI. These studies are designed to refine the mission requirements for the science goals, define a Design Reference Mission, perform trade studies of selected major technical and architectural issues, improve the existing technology roadmap, and explore the details of deployment and operations, as well as the possible roles of astronauts and/or robots in construction and servicing of the facility.

Carpenter, Ken

Solar Electric Propulsion for Primitive Body Science Missions

This paper describes work that assesses the performance of solar electric propulsion (SEP) for three different primitive body science missions: 1) Comet Rendezvous 2) Comet Surface Sample Return (CSSR), and 3) a Trojan asteroid/Centaur object Reconnaissance Flyby. Each of these missions launches from Earth between 2010 and 2016. Beginning-of-life (BOL) solar array power (referenced at 1 A.U.) varies from 10 to 18 kW. Launch vehicle selections range from a Delta II to a Delta IV medium-class. The primary figure of merit (FOM) is net delivered mass (NDM). This analysis considers the effects of imposing various mission constraints on the Comet Rendezvous and CSSR missions. Specifically, the Comet Rendezvous mission analysis examines an arrival date constraint with a launch year variation, whereas the CSSR mission analysis investigates an Earth entry velocity constraint commensurate with past and current missions. Additionally, the CSSR mission analysis establishes NASA's New Frontiers (NF) Design Reference Mission (DRM) in order to evaluate current and future SEP technologies. The results show that transfer times range from 5 to 9 years (depending on the mission). More importantly, the spacecraft's primary propulsion system performs an average 5-degree plane change on the return leg of the CSSR mission to meet the previously mentioned Earth entry velocity constraint. Consequently, these analyses show that SEP technologies that have higher thrust-to-power ratios can: 1) reduce flight time, and 2) change planes more efficiently.

Witzberger, Kevin E.

Radiation Engineering Analysis of Shielding Materials to Assess Their Ability to Protect Astronauts in Deep Space From Energetic Particle Radiation

An analysis is performed on four typical materials (aluminum, liquid hydrogen, polyethylene, and water) to assess their impact on the length of time an astronaut can stay in deep space and not exceed a design basis radiation exposure of 150 mSv. A large number of heavy lift launches of pure shielding mass are needed to enable long duration, deep space missions to keep astronauts at or below the exposure value with shielding provided by the vehicle. Therefore, vehicle mass using the assumptions in the paper cannot be the sole shielding mechanism for long duration, deep space missions. As an example, to enable the Mars Design Reference Mission 5.0 with a 400 day transit to and from Mars, not including the 500 day stay on the surface, a minimum of 24 heavy lift launches of polyethylene at 89,375 lbm (40.54 tonnes) each are needed for the 1977 galactic cosmic ray environment. With the assumptions used in this paper, a single heavy lift launch of water or polyethylene can protect astronauts for a 130 day mission before exceeding the exposure value. Liquid hydrogen can only protect the astronauts for 160 days. Even a single launch of pure shielding material cannot protect an astronaut in deep space for more than 180 days using the assumptions adopted in the analysis. It is shown that liquid hydrogen is not the best shielding material for the same mass as polyethylene for missions that last longer than 225 days.

Singleterry, R. C.

Addressing Human System Risks to Future Space Exploration

NASA is contemplating future human exploration missions to destinations beyond low Earth orbit, including the Moon, deep-space asteroids, and Mars. While we have learned much about protecting crew health and performance during orbital space flight over the past half-century, the challenges of these future missions far exceed those within our current experience base. To ensure success in these missions, we have developed a Human System Risk Board (HSRB) to identify, quantify, and develop mitigation plans for the extraordinary risks associated with each potential mission scenario. The HSRB comprises research, technology, and operations experts in medicine, physiology, psychology, human factors, radiation, toxicology, microbiology, pharmacology, and food sciences. Methods: Owing to the wide range of potential mission characteristics, we first identified the hazards to human health and performance common to all exploration missions: altered gravity, isolation/confinement, increased radiation, distance from Earth, and hostile/closed environment. Each hazard leads to a set of risks to crew health and/or performance. For example the radiation hazard leads to risks of acute radiation syndrome, central nervous system dysfunction, soft tissue degeneration, and carcinogenesis. Some of these risks (e.g., acute radiation syndrome) could affect crew health or performance during the mission, while others (e.g., carcinogenesis) would more likely affect the crewmember well after the mission ends. We next defined a set of design reference missions (DRM) that would span the range of exploration missions currently under consideration. In addition to standard (6-month) and long-duration (1-year) missions in low Earth orbit (LEO), these DRM include deep space sortie missions of 1 month duration, lunar orbital and landing missions of 1 year duration, deep space journey and asteroid landing missions of 1 year duration, and Mars orbital and landing missions of 3 years duration. We then assessed the likelihood and consequences of each risk against each DRM, using three levels of likelihood (Low: less than or equal to 0.1%; Medium: 0.1%–1.0%; High: greater than or equal to 1.0%) and four levels of consequence ranging from Very Low (temporary or insignificant) to High (death, loss of mission, or significant reduction to length or quality of life). Quantitative evidence from clinical, operational, and research sources were used whenever available. Qualitative evidence was used when quantitative evidence was unavailable. Expert opinion was used whenever insufficient evidence was available. Results: A set of 30 risks emerged that will require further mitigation efforts before being accepted by the Agency. The likelihood by consequence risk assessment process provided a means of prioritizing among the risks identified. For each of the high priority risks, a plan was developed to perform research, technology, or standards development thought necessary to provide suitable reduction of likelihood or consequence to allow agency acceptance. Conclusion: The HSRB process has successfully identified a complete set of risks to human space travelers on planned exploration missions based on the best evidence available today. Risk mitigation plans have been established for the highest priority risks. Each risk will be reassessed annually to track the progress of our risk mitigation efforts.

Paloski, W. H.

Design and performance of an arcjet nuclear electric propulsion system for a mid-1990's reference mission

The design and performance of an arcjet nuclear-electric-propulsion spacecraft, suitable for use in the Space Nuclear Power System (SNPS) reference mission, are outlined. The vehicle design was based on a 30-kW ammonia arcjet system operating at an Isp of 1050 s and an efficiency of 45 percent. The arcjet/gimbal system, power-processing unit, and propellant-feed system are described. A 100-kWe SNPS was assumed, and the spacecraft mass was baselined at 5250 kg (excluding the propellant-feed system). A radiation/arcjet efflux diagnostics package was included in the performance analysis. This spacecraft, assuming a Shuttle launch from KSC, can perform a 50-deg inclination change and reach a final orbit of 35,860 km with a 120-d trip time providing a 4-mo active load for the SNPS. Alternatively, a Titan IV launch would provide a mass margin of 120 kg to a 10,000-km, 58-deg final orbit in 74 d. This spacecraft meets the reference-mission constraint of low developmental risk, and is scalable to power levels projected for future space platforms.

Deininger, William D.

Risk Trade-Space Analysis for Safe Human Expeditions to Mars

We assessed the integrated safety, health, and performance risk to crews on long-duration missions, specifically to Mars. Using a systems approach rather than one focused on individual countermeasures, we examined the trade space around several such risks to identify high-potential risk mitigation strategies and characterize aspects of Mars mission architectures that could lower aggregated risk. Current Mars Design Reference missions would require durations well over two years and would increase crew exposure to radiation and microgravity well beyond ISS levels, likely resulting in significantly reduced performance beyond our current capability to mitigate that could jeopardize mission success. A “fast Mars transit” round-trip mission concept was studied using an innovative flight dynamics approach to quantify the minimum total mission energy required for a Mars transit with total mission duration less than 400 days. This approach holds promise for sending humans to Mars and returning them safely with acceptable, potentially mitigatable, exposure to microgravity and radiation using current or near-term technologies. The fast transit concept would also result in fewer time-driven vehicle failures and enable sustainable deployment of humans and infrastructure to Mars on a regular cadence, allowing steady exploration and colonization of Mars. Finally, we conclude that reliance on the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mission operations paradigm – i.e., one of near-complete real-time dependence on experts at Mission Control to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew – is high risk given the communication delays and limited resupply of any Mars mission, and this risk is not eliminated by the shorter missions durations of fast transit scenarios. Based on historical trends, it is highly likely that the crew will face a high-consequence problem of uncertain origin during Mars transit when ground support will be greatly reduced. While it may be possible to reduce anomaly rates through improved reliability analysis and testing, and to reduce anomaly impacts through added robustness, such mitigations address only known failure modes and known uncertainties. Therefore, a radical shift in the Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) that defines the operational paradigm, systems design, and human-systems interactions is required to improve the risk posture to an acceptable level regardless of mission duration.

Mars

Reaching for the Stars

The NASA Administrator, Dan Goldin, has given us the challenge to literally "Reach for the Stars" by requesting an Interstellar Mission. The star that has been chosen for the design reference mission is Alpha Centauri, located at a distance of 4.3 light years from Earth. As an additional enticement for this mission, the discovery of four newly formed solar systems was announced in May of 1998. In July of 1998, a NASA/AIAA Interstellar Mission Workshop was held at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, California to develop the Interstellar Mission roadmap including a set of precursor missions, and to examine advanced propulsion concepts to enable these missions. This paper outlines the Interstellar Mission, related Precursor Interstellar Missions, and the advanced propulsion research and technology development activities being conducted to support these missions.

Barrett, Chris

Validating Human Performance Models of the Future Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle

NASA's Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) will provide transportation for crew and cargo to and from destinations in support of the Constellation Architecture Design Reference Missions. Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is one of the design methods NASA employs for crew performance of the CEV. During the early development of the CEV, NASA and its prime Orion contractor Lockheed Martin (LM) strived to seek an effective low-cost method for developing and validating human performance DES models. This paper focuses on the method developed while creating a DES model for the CEV Rendezvous, Proximity Operations, and Docking (RPOD) task to the International Space Station. Our approach to validation was to attack the problem from several fronts. First, we began the development of the model early in the CEV design stage. Second, we adhered strictly to M&S development standards. Third, we involved the stakeholders, NASA astronauts, subject matter experts, and NASA's modeling and simulation development community throughout. Fourth, we applied standard and easy-to-conduct methods to ensure the model's accuracy. Lastly, we reviewed the data from an earlier human-in-the-loop RPOD simulation that had different objectives, which provided us an additional means to estimate the model's confidence level. The results revealed that a majority of the DES model was a reasonable representation of the current CEV design.

Wong, Douglas T.

Preliminary Report on Mission Design and Operations for Critical Events

Mission-critical events are defined in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory s Flight Project Practices as those sequences of events which must succeed in order to attain mission goals. These are dependent on the particular operational concept and design reference mission, and are especially important when committing to irreversible events. Critical events include main engine cutoff (MECO) after launch; engine cutoff or parachute deployment on entry, descent, and landing (EDL); orbital insertion; separation of payload from vehicle or separation of booster segments; maintenance of pointing accuracy for power and communication; and deployment of solar arrays and communication antennas. The purpose of this paper is to report on the current practices in handling mission-critical events in design and operations at major NASA spaceflight centers. The scope of this report includes NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), with staff at each center consulted on their current practices, processes, and procedures.

Hayden, Sandra C.

Constellation Program Life-cycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM)

The Constellation Program (CxP) is NASA's effort to replace the Space Shuttle, return humans to the moon, and prepare for a human mission to Mars. The major elements of the Constellation Lunar sortie design reference mission architecture are shown. Unlike the Apollo Program of the 1960's, affordability is a major concern of United States policy makers and NASA management. To measure Constellation affordability, a total ownership cost life-cycle parametric cost estimating capability is required. This capability is being developed by the Constellation Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) Directorate, and is called the Lifecycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM). The requirements for LCAM are based on the need to have a parametric estimating capability in order to do top-level program analysis, evaluate design alternatives, and explore options for future systems. By estimating the total cost of ownership within the context of the planned Constellation budget, LCAM can provide Program and NASA management with the cost data necessary to identify the most affordable alternatives. LCAM is also a key component of the Integrated Program Model (IPM), an SE&I developed capability that combines parametric sizing tools with cost, schedule, and risk models to perform program analysis. LCAM is used in the generation of cost estimates for system level trades and analyses. It draws upon the legacy of previous architecture level cost models, such as the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Architecture Cost Model (ARCOM) developed for Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA), and ATLAS. LCAM is used to support requirements and design trade studies by calculating changes in cost relative to a baseline option cost. Estimated costs are generally low fidelity to accommodate available input data and available cost estimating relationships (CERs). LCAM is capable of interfacing with the Integrated Program Model to provide the cost estimating capability for that suite of tools.

Prince, Andy

Biomedical Aspects of Lunar and Mars Exploration Missions

Recent long-range planning for exploration-class missions has emphasized the need for anticipating the medical and human factors aspects of such expeditions. Missions returning Americans to the moon for stays of up to 6 months at a time will provide the opportunity to demonstrate the means to function safely and efficiently on another planet. Details of mission architectures are still under study, but a typical Mars design reference mission comprises a six-month transit from Earth to Mars, eighteen months in residence on Mars, and a six-month transit back to Earth. Physiological stresses will come from environmental factors such as prolonged exposure to radiation, weightlessness en route to Mars and then back to Earth, and low gravity and a toxic atmosphere while on Mars. Psychological stressors will include remoteness from Earth, confinement, and potential interpersonal conflicts, all complicated by circadian alterations. Medical risks including trauma must be considered. The role of such risk-modifying influences as artificial gravity and improved propulsion technologies to shorten round-trip time will also be discussed. Results of planning for assuring human health and performance will be presented.

Charles, John B.

International Docking Standard (IDSS) Interface Definition Document (IDD) : Revision - E

This International Docking System Standard (IDSS) Interface Definition Document (IDD) is the result of a collaboration by the International Space Station membership to establish a standard docking interface to enable on-orbit crew rescue operations and joint collaborative endeavors utilizing different spacecraft. This IDSS IDD details the physical geometric mating interface and design loads requirements. The physical geometric interface requirements must be strictly followed to ensure physical spacecraft mating compatibility. This includes both defined components and areas that are void of components. The IDD also identifies common design parameters as identified in section 3.0, e.g., docking initial conditions and vehicle mass properties. This information represents a recommended set of design values enveloping a broad set of design reference missions and conditions, which if accommodated in the docking system design, increases the probability of successful docking between different spacecraft. This IDD does not address operational procedures or off-nominal situations, nor does it dictate implementation or design features behind the mating interface. It is the responsibility of the spacecraft developer to perform all hardware verification and validation, and to perform final docking analyses to ensure the needed docking performance and to develop the final certification loads for their application. While there are many other critical requirements needed in the development of a docking system such as fault tolerance, reliability, and environments (e.g. vibration, etc.), it is not the intent of the IDSS IDD to mandate all of these requirements; these requirements must be addressed as part of the specific developer's unique program, spacecraft and mission needs. This approach allows designers the flexibility to design and build docking mechanisms to their unique program needs and requirements. The purpose of the IDSS IDD is to provide basic common design parameters to allow developers to independently design compatible docking systems. The IDSS is intended for uses ranging from crewed to autonomous space vehicles, and from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to deep-space exploration missions.The purpose of the IDSS IDD is to provide basic common design parameters to allow developers to independently design compatible docking systems. The IDSS is intended for uses ranging from crewed to autonomous space vehicles, and from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to deep-space exploration missions. The purpose of the IDSS IDD is to provide basic common design parameters to allow developers to independently design compatible docking systems. The IDSS is intended for uses ranging from crewed to autonomous space vehicles, and from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to deep-space exploration missions.

docking