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Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) with the 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer

Hurricane Katrina was the sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Katrina's forecast poses major challenges, the most important of which is its rapid intensification. Hurricane intensity forecast with General Circulation Models (GCMs) is difficult because of their coarse resolution. In this article, six 5-day simulations with the ultra-high resolution finite-volume GCM are conducted on the NASA Columbia supercomputer to show the effects of increased resolution on the intensity predictions of Katrina. It is found that the 0.125 degree runs give comparable tracks to the 0.25 degree, but provide better intensity forecasts, bringing the center pressure much closer to observations with differences of only plus or minus 12 hPa. In the runs initialized at 1200 UTC 25 AUG, the 0.125 degree simulates a more realistic intensification rate and better near-eye wind distributions. Moreover, the first global 0.125 degree simulation without convection parameterization (CP) produces even better intensity evolution and near-eye winds than the control run with CP.

Shen, B.-W.↗

Virtual Flight Demonstration of the Stratospheric Dual-Aircraft Platform

A baseline configuration for the dual-aircraft platform (DAP) concept is described and evaluated in a physics-based flight dynamics simulations for two month-long missions as a communications relay in the lower stratosphere above central Florida, within 150-miles of downtown Orlando.The DAP configuration features two large glider-like (130 ft wing span) unmanned aerial vehicles connected via a long adjustable cable (total extendible length of 3000 ft) which effectively sail without propulsion using available wind shear. Use of onboard LiDAR wind profilers to forecast wind distributions are found to be necessary to enable the platform to efficiently adjust flight conditions to remain sailing by finding sufficient wind shear across the platform. The aircraft derive power from solar cells, like a conventional solar aircraft, but also extract wind power using the propeller as a turbine when there is an excess of wind shear available.Month-long atmospheric profiles (at 3-5 min intervals) in the vicinity of 60,000-ft are derived from archived data measured by the 50-Mhz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler at Cape Canaveral and used in the DAP flight simulations. A cursory evaluation of these datasets show that sufficient wind shear for DAP sailing is persistent, suggesting that DAP could potentially sail over 90% of the month-long durations even when limited by modest ascent/descent rates.DAP's novel guidance software uses a non-linear constrained optimization technique to define waypoints such that sailing mode of flight is maintained where possible, and minimal thrust is required where sailing is not practical. A set of constraints are identified which result in waypoints that enable efficient flight (i.e., minimal use of propulsion) over the two month-long flight simulations. Waypoint solutions may need to be tabulated for a wide range of potential atmospheric conditions and stored onboard for quick retrieval on a real DAP.DAP's flight control software uses an unconventional mixture of spacecraft and aircraft control techniques. Flight simulations confirms that this controls approach enables the platform to consistently reach successive waypoints over the month-long flight simulations.The ability of DAP to transition between the sailing mode (i.e., cable tension is high) and standard formation flight (i.e., cable tension is low) is a vital capability (e.g., to enable intermittent turns while stationkeeping). A new method to perform these transitions has been identified and characterized with flight simulation which requires special aircraft modifications.The energy-usage of the DAP configuration during two month-long stationkeeping missions over central Florida (i.e., stationkeeping over Orlando) is evaluated and compared to that of a pure solar aircraft of the same weight and aerodynamic performance. DAP is shown to consistently reduce net propulsion usage while simultaneously increasing solar energy capture.A baseline 700 GHz communications system is described and its performance evaluated for the proposed mission over central Florida. It is found that the variable roll orientation of the aircraft would increase the power required to maintain coverage over the stationkeeping radius of 150 miles (e.g., by as much as 100% when DAP is 150 miles from Orlando), compared to level flight. This effect can be mitigated via additional antenna design complexity or a more restricted stationkeeping radius.

Demonstrations↗

Cost of Wind Energy Review: 2024 Edition [Slides]

The primary elements of this analysis include: Estimated LCOE for (1) a representative land-based wind energy project installed in a moderate wind resource in the United States, (2) a representative fixed-bottom offshore wind energy project installed in the U.S. North Atlantic, and (3) a representative floating offshore wind energy project installed off the U.S. Pacific Coast. It also updates the LCOE estimates for representative residential-, commercial-, and large-scale distributed wind projects installed in a moderate wind resource in the United States. A sensitivity analyses is included that shows the range of effects that basic LCOE variables could have on the cost of wind energy for land-based and offshore wind projects and provides updated Fiscal Year 2024 values for land-based and offshore wind energy used for Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) reporting and illustrated progress toward established GPRA targets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Suprathermal electron loss cone distributions in the solar wind: Ulysses observations

Solar wind suprathermal electron distributions in the solar wind generally carry a field-aligned antisunward heat flux. Within coronal mass ejections and upstream of strong shocks driven by corotating interaction regions (CIRs), counterstreaming electron beams are observed. We present observations by the Ulysses solar wind plasma experiment of a new class of suprathermal electron signatures. At low solar latitudes and heliocentric distances beyond 3.5 AU Ulysses encountered several intervals, ranging in duration from 1 hour to 22 hours, in which the suprathermal distributions included an antisunward field-aligned beam and a return population with a flux dropout typically spanning +/- 60 deg from the sunward field-aligned direction. All events occurred within CIRs, downstream of the forward and reverse shocks or waves bounding the interaction regions. We evaluate the hypothesis that the sunward-moving electrons result from reflection of the antisunward beams at magnetic field compressions downstream from the observations, with wide loss cones caused by the relatively weak compression ratio. This hypothesis requires that field magnitude within the CIRs actually increase with increasing field-aligned distance from the Sun. Details of the electron distributions and ramifications for CIR and shock geometry will be presented.

Phillips, J. L.↗

Aquarius Instrument Science Calibration During the Risk Reduction Phase

This final report presents the results of work performed under NASA Grant NAG512726 during the period 15 January 2003 through 30 June 2004. An analysis was performed of a possible vicarious calibration method for use by Aquarius to monitor and stabilize the absolute and relative calibration of its microwave radiometer. Stationary statistical properties of the brightness temperature (T(sub B)) measured by a low Earth orbiting radiometer operating at 1.4135 GHz are considered as a means of validating its absolute calibration. The global minimum, maximum, and average T(sub B) are considered, together with a vicarious cold reference method that detects the presence of a sharp lower bound on naturally occurring values for T(sub B). Of particular interest is the reliability with which these statistics can be extracted from a realistic distribution of T(sub B) measurements that would be observed by a typical sensor. Simulations of measurements are performed that include the effects of instrument noise and variable environmental factors such as the global water vapor and ocean surface temperature, salinity and wind distributions. Global minima can vary widely due to instrument noise and are not a reliable calibration reference. Global maxima are strongly influenced by several environmental factors as well as instrument noise and are even less stationary. Global averages are largely insensitive to instrument noise and, in most cases, to environmental conditions as well. The global average T(sub B) varies at only the 0.1 K RMS level except in cases of anomalously high winds, when it can increase considerably more. The vicarious cold reference is similarly insensitive to instrument effects and most environmental factors. It is not significantly affected by high wind conditions. The stability of the vicarious reference is, however, found to be somewhat sensitive (at the several tenths of Kelvins level) to variations in the background cold space brightness, T(sub c). The global average is much less sensitive to this parameter and so using two approaches together can be mutually beneficial.

Ruf, Christopher S.↗

Contour advection with surgery: A technique for investigating finescale structure in tracer transport

We present a trajectory technique, contour advection with surgery (CAS), for tracing the evolution of material contours in a specified (including observed) evolving flow. CAS uses the algorithms developed by Dritschel for contour dynamics/surgery to trace the evolution of specified contours. The contours are represented by a series of particles, which are advected by a specified, gridded, wind distribution. The resolution of the contours is preserved by continually adjusting the number of particles, and finescale features are produced that are not present in the input data (and cannot easily be generated using standard trajectory techniques). The reliability, and dependence on the spatial and temporal resolution of the wind field, of the CAS procedure is examined by comparisons with high-resolution numerical data (from contour dynamics calculations and from a general circulation model), and with routine stratospheric analyses. These comparisons show that the large-scale motions dominate the deformation field and that CAS can accurately reproduce small scales from low-resolution wind fields. The CAS technique therefore enables examination of atmospheric tracer transport at previously unattainable resolution.

Waugh, Darryn W.↗

Atmospheric effects on earth rotation and polar motion

The variability in the earth's rotation rate not due to known solid body tides is dominated on time scales of about four years and less by variations in global atmospheric angular momentum (M) as derived from the zonal wind distribution. Among features seen in the length of day record produced by atmospheric forcing are the strong seasonal cycle, quasi-periodic fluctuations around 40-50 days, and an interannual signal forced by a strong Pacific warming event known as the El Nino. Momentum variations associated with these time scales arise in different latitudinal regions. Furthermore, winds in the stratosphere make a particularly important contribution to seasonal variability. Other related topics discussed here are: (1) comparisons of the M series from wind fields produced at different weather centers; (2) the torques that dynamically link the atmosphere and earth; and (3) longer-term nonatmospheric effects that can be seen upon removal of the atmospheric signal.an interestigapplication for climatological purposes is the use of the historical earth rotation series as a proxy for atmospheric wind variability prior to the era of upper-air data. Lastly, results pertaining to the role of atmospheric pressure systems in exciting rapid polar motion are presented.

Salstein, David A.↗

The neutral wind 'flywheel' as a source of quiet-time, polar-cap currents

The neutral wind pattern over the summer polar cap can be driven by plasma convection to resemble the convection pattern. For a north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz directed southward, the wind speeds in the conducting E-region can become approximately 25 percent of the electric field drift speeds. If convection ceases, this neutral wind distribution can drive a significant polar cap current system for approximately 6 hours. The currents are reversed from those driven by the electric fields for southward Bz, and the Hall and field-aligned components of the current system resemble those observed during periods of northward Bz. The current magnitudes are similar to those observed during periods of small, northward Bz; however, observations indicate that electric fields often contribute to the currents as much as, or more than, the neutral winds.

Lyons, L. R.↗

Markov Decision Process based Trajectory Planning for UAVs under Uncertain Wind Conditions

In this paper we propose a Markov Decision Process (MDP) algorithm for path-planning of Unmanned Aviation Vehicles (UAVs) under varying wind conditions. Solutions to path-planning for UAVs are becoming increasingly necessary as autonomous UAVs continue to enter commercial and government spaces. Path-planning is inherently challenging, as UAVs needs to account for dynamically changing flying conditions such as weather, obstacle or no-fly zones, degraded vehicle health and off-nominal battery power consumption. Machine learning methods such as Markov Decision Process (MDPs) have the potential to revolutionize how vehicles navigate in such uncertain environments. Previous papers have demonstrated the use of MDPs to optimize UAV path-planning for energy consumption under time-varying wind distribution. In this study, UAV trajectories from a pre-determined waypoint to target cell, will be computed on a 7X7 grid environment by optimizing parameters for mission assurance and safety limits in addition to the energy consumption, and operation time. The UAV navigates the grid by taking actions to move in either of the eight cardinal and intercardinal directions, under constant thrust profile. The next state of the UAV is calculated by considering its action, transition probability, obstacle cells and the wind speed magnitude and direction. Both constant and stochastic wind will be considered in this paper, the parameters being extracted from real wind measurements in proximity to an experimental UAV flight. One of the studies to be demonstrated in this paper is that as the unmanned airspace gets more complex with multiple vehicles and environmental uncertainties, trade-offs between energy consumption, operation time, risk tolerance, and mission assurance needs to be made. Further, MDPs are capable of fast computation of UAV trajectories under varying wind, hence making them suitable for in-flight path planners.

decision-making↗

ACDC (Automated Campbell Diagram Code) [SWR-26-042]

This application provides a web-based graphical user interface to generating Campbell Diagrams and visualizing mode shapes for OpenFAST turbine models. Determining the aeroelastic stability and dynamic characteristics of wind turbines is a critical step in turbine design and analysis. Historically, extracting natural frequencies and mode shapes from OpenFAST—the industry-standard whole-turbine simulation code—has been a fragmented and tedious process. It required manual model configuration, command-line linearization execution, and complex post-processing via proprietary scripts to handle rotating-frame dynamics. To address these workflow bottlenecks, we present the Automated Campbell Diagram Code (ACDC), an open-source graphical software tool developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) under the DOE-funded Distributed Wind Aeroelastic Modeling (dWAM) project. ACDC streamlines the end-to-end linearization and stability analysis workflow into a single, intuitive cross-platform application. The software guides users through OpenFAST model configuration, definition of operating points, and the automated execution of steady-state trim and linearization simulations. Under the hood, ACDC automates the complex mathematical post-processing steps required for rotating systems, including Multi-Blade Coordinate (MBC) transformations, eigenanalysis, and advanced modal tracking utilizing the Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC) and spectral clustering. Finally, ACDC processes these results to automatically generate Campbell diagrams and features a robust 3D visualization engine to animate full-system mode shapes. By eliminating the reliance on external post-processing environments and manual data manipulation, ACDC significantly accelerates dynamic analysis and lowers the barrier to entry for wind energy researchers and engineers.

Summerville, Brent [National Laboratory of the Roc↗

Grid Integration of Renewable Energy and Energy Storage

Grid integration of renewable energy and energy storage requires forward-looking planning process, and increased emphasizes on reliability, resilience, and equity. Power-electronics based energy generation including solar, wind, distributed energy resources (DERs), and various types of grid-tied energy storage and emerging loads, are reshaping grid operator's understanding on interconnection level performance and responses. This paper will present the ongoing work at PNNL related to power electronics R&D, energy modeling and analysis, and a wide spectrum of grid stability studies and technologies in support of grid integration of renewable energy and energy storage.

Power Electronics, grid integration of renewable e↗

Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project: Bainbridge Island, Washington - Cohort 2 Technical Assistance: Pathways to 100% Renewable Energy

The City of Bainbridge Island (COBI) applied for and received technical assistance from the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) in part to achieve their goal of 100% renewable electricity generation by 2040, five years ahead of the Washington State goal, and to increase its energy resilience in the face of natural disasters. To help address these goals, the City of Bainbridge Island (COBI) applied for and received technical assistance from the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) during 2022-2024. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, ETIPP provides technical assistance to remote coastal and island communities interested in approaches to renewable and resilient energy transitions. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) completed the technical analysis aspects of the project, supported by the community partner Spark Northwest and the program administrator, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This report begins by describing the approach to technical assistance in the ETIPP project, followed by the development of future scenarios for electric demand based on current use. Potential pathways to 100% renewable energy are identified and analyzed by technology contributions from solar energy, anaerobic biodigestion, distributed wind, and marine energy. The combinations of these technologies and contributions to meet demand are discussed, along with potential policies and programs for implementation of the most relevant technologies moving forward. The report concludes with recommendations for next steps for COBI to meet the goal of 100% renewable energy generation by 2040 on- and off-island, and key caveats to consider.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Forecasts for Land-Based Wind Deployment in the United States: Wind Industry Survey Results [Slides]

Recent land-based wind deployment in the United States has been sluggish, and expectations for future growth have moderated in recent years. Berkeley Lab conducted a brief survey of wind industry stakeholders to better understand barriers and solutions. The focus of the survey was on land-based wind projects in the United States – not offshore wind or distributed small wind projects. Respondents identified challenges related to the grid and to siting as the most pressing concerns.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Performance of wind assessment datasets in United States coastal areas

The atmospheric dynamics that occur near the intersection of land and water offer exciting and challenging opportunities for wind energy deployment in coastal locations. New models and tools are continually being developed in support of wind resource assessment, and three recent products are explored in this work for their performance in representing characteristics of the wind resource at coastal locations: the Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset (NOW-23), and the wind climate simulations that are a component of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED Climate). These relatively new products are freely available and user-friendly so that anyone – from a utility-scale developer to a resident or business owner – can evaluate the potential for wind energy generation at their location of interest. The validations in this work provide guidance on the accuracy of wind resource assessments for coastal customers interested in installing small or midsize wind turbines (≤ 1 MW in capacity) to support energy needs at the residential, business, or community scale, such as the island and remotely located participants of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project. At 23 coastal locations across the United States, dataset performance varies according to different evaluation metrics. All three recent datasets tend to overestimate the observed coastal wind resource. GWA3 produces the smallest annual average wind speed relative errors, whereas WTK-LED Climate is in best agreement in terms of representing diurnal wind speed cycles. NOW-23 is the highest performing of the datasets for representing seasonal and interannual trends in the coastal wind resource. While GWA3 and WTK-LED Climate are relatively insensitive to the dataset output heights selected for wind resource assessment at small and midsize wind turbine hub heights (20–60 m), significant variation in the NOW-23 representation of wind shear across the wind profile in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere leads to notable differences in wind speed estimates according to the dataset output heights selected for evaluation. GWA3 exhibits challenges in the representation of observed wind speed diurnal cycles at small and midsize turbine hub heights, likely due to the dataset's consistent treatment of hourly wind speed trends regardless of altitude.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The global wind system in the thermosphere.

The upper atmosphere wind distribution is calculated by solving the Navier-Stokes equations with models of upper atmospheric densities and ion distribution. All non-linear terms and viscous terms are included. It is found that the velocities from the non-linear solutions are smaller than those obtained from a linear treatment and that in the equatorial region the magnitude of the average meridional velocity is strongly dependent upon the latitudinal coupling. No appreciable super-rotation is obtained by the inclusion of the nonlinear terms; the small value of the average zonal velocity is mainly due to the ion distribution.

Blum, P. W.↗

Wind power prediction models

Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

Levy, R.↗

The westward thermospheric jet-stream of the evening auroral oval

Ground-based and satellite measurements of the thermospheric wind in jet-streams during the evening auroral oval are analyzed, in order to study the geophysical mechanisms of thermospheric wind generation. Numerical simulations using a global, three-dimensional, time-dependent model of thermospheric dynamics were compared with the satellite data, and the results are discussed in detail. The wind distribution during the storm is shown in a series of color plates.

Rees, D.↗