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DOE OSTI2021

Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging

Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of Beam Spin Asymmetries in p+p0 and p´p0 Dihadron Production at CLAS12

Semi-Inclusive Deep Inelastic Scattering (SIDIS) is a powerful experimental tool for studying the internal structure and dynamics of the proton, revealing how quarks and gluons are distributed and interact within it. SIDIS describes a process where an elec tron scatters off one of the constituent quarks within the proton, causing it to undergo hadronization, creating multiple hadrons in the final state. Through factorization, the full process can be split into probabilistic components: one which describes the internal structure of the proton using Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs), and another which describes the hadronization process using Fragmentation Functions (FFs). These functions are non-perturbative quantities of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), meaning they cannot be calculated directly from first principles and must instead be extracted from experimental measurements. Acommon approach for accessing PDFs and FFs using SIDIS is to measure asymmetries. In this context, asymmetries correspond to subtle differences in the angular distribution of outgoing particles that arise when the spin orientation of the incoming beam or target is reversed. Because many of these effects only appear when spin is involved, they isolate specific, nuanced properties of the proton’s spin-structure that are otherwise hidden in spin averaged measurements. In practice, they show up as specific azimuthal modulations (e.g., sin ¿R, sin(¿h ´ ¿R)), whose amplitudes isolate convolutions of PDFs and FFs at leading and subleading twist. Non-zero asymmetries of these angular distributions can be traced back to unique combinations of PDFs and FFs, offering a way to probe them directly. In this work, we measure SIDIS by analyzing high energy electron-proton scattering events using the CLAS12 detector at Jefferson Lab. This study focuses on subset of SIDIS referred to as dihadron SIDIS, where pairs of hadrons — here p+p0 and p´p0 — are observed. We analyzed these dihadrons using detector data collected during Fall 2018 and Spring 2019, where longitudinally polarized electrons from the CEBAF accelerator were incident on a liquid hydrogen target. A photon classifier using a Gradient Boosted Trees (GBTs) architecture was trained using Monte Carlo simulations to reduce the amount of iv false combinatorial background p0’s. When deployed on experimental data, the model in creases our dihadron statistics by up to five-fold compared to previous CLAS12 p0 analyses. This work reports the first measurements of beam spin asymmetries for p+p0 and p´p0 dihadron production in SIDIS. The measured asymmetries offer new insights to the spin-dependent structure and dynamics within the proton, as well as the spin-dependent properties of quark fragmentation. Non-zero twist-3 sin¿R amplitudes are observed, pro viding sensitivity to the subleading twist PDF e(x). The PDF e(x) encodes quark-gluon correlations within the proton — a property that is otherwise inaccessible at leading twist. Additionally, this work measured significant twist-2 modulations carried by sin(¿h ´ ¿R) and sin(2¿h ´2¿R), providing experimental access to the helicity dihadron fragmentation function (DiFF) GK 1 . Because there is no equivalent quark helicity-dependent FF in single pion SIDIS, the DiFF GK 1 offers a unique lens into novel spin-dependent fragmentation. For instance, the twist-2 modulations observed in this study are enhanced by vector mesons created during fragmentation — a behavior predicted by phenomenological models. This study broadens our understanding of dihadron fragmentation, revealing new details about the flavor and charge dependence of hadronization.

Matousek, Gregory [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Physical Security Risk for Potential Implementation of FLEX using Dynamic Simulation Methods

The requirements for United States nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their large operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Physical Security Pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. This pathway will analyze and minimize the conservatisms built into current security postures in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within this pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force (FOF) modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrated them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System or Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance of the use of the framework. Such an assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants. NOTE: The work performed in this report is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are in the report. No plant’s sensitive information is discussed in this report. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the MASS-DEF methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. In this work, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality following heat and drought events in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk of exposure. These events underscore the fact that climate change may affect forests with unexpected force in the future. We use the events as examples to highlight current difficulties and challenges for realistically predicting such tree mortality events and the uncertainties about future forest condition. Advances in remote sensing technology and greater availably of high-resolution data, from both field assessments and satellites, are needed to improve both understanding and prediction of forest responses to future climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulated tree recruitment at PA-BCI under four precipitation scenarios

Simulated recruitment rates are provided for four tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) which vary in drought and shade tolerance, at Barro Colorado Island, Panama (PA-BCI). Recruitment rates are predicted using the Tree Recruitment Scheme (TRS; Hanbury-Brown et al., 2022) and model data output from the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 with hydrodynamics (ED2; Medvigy et al., 2009, Powell et al., 2018). Predictions of recruitment are provided under four precipitation scenarios: “BASE” = recycled 2008-2014 observed meteorology (Faybishenko & Paton, 2021), “SYN-ENSO” = two exceptionally strong El Niño events within 30 years (Powell et al., 2018), “WET” = 30% increase in precipitation compared to BASE, and DRY-DS = dry season (January–April) precipitation reduced by 75% compared to BASE. In addition to recruitment rates, this dataset provides TRS predictions of PFT-specific seed bank and seedling pool dynamics (tracked in units of carbon) and ED predictions of understory photosynthetically active radiation and soil matric potential at 6 cm soil depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Open-Source Tool for Automated Power Grid Stress Level Prediction at Balancing Authorities

The behavior of modern power systems becomes more stochastic and dynamic, due to the increased penetration of variable generation, demand response, new power market structure, extreme weather conditions, contingencies, and unexpected events. It is critically important to predict potential system operational issues so that grid planners and operators can take preventive actions to mitigate the impact, e.g., lack of operational reserves. In this paper, an innovative software tool is presented to assist power grid operators in a balancing authority (BA) to predict the grid stress level over the next operating day. It periodically collects necessary information from public domain such as weather forecasts, electricity demand, and automatically estimates the stress levels on a daily basis. Advanced Neural Network and regression tree algorithms are developed as the prediction engines to achieve this goal. The tool has been tested on a few key balancing authorities that successfully predicates the growing system peak load and increased stress levels under extreme heat waves in the United States of America.

Berscheid, Alan P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing charge ratio sensitivity to hadronization effects via jet selections on resolved SoftDrop splitting

The study of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) at ultrarelativistic energies can be performed in a controlled environment through lepton-hadron deep inelastic scatterings. In such collisions, the high-energy partonic emissions that follow from the ejected hard partons are accurately described by perturbative QCD. However, the lower energy scales at which quarks and gluons experience color confinement, i.e., hadronization mechanism, fall outside the validity regions for perturbative calculations, requiring phenomenological models tuned to data to describe it. As such, hadronization physics cannot be currently derived from first principles alone. Monte Carlo event generators are useful tools to describe these processes as they simulate both the perturbative and the nonperturbative interactions, with model-dependent energy scales that control parton dynamics. This work employs jets—experimental reconstructions of final-state particles likely to have a common partonic origin—to inspect this transition further. Although originally proposed to circumvent hadronization effects, we show that jets can be utilized as probes of nonperturbative phenomena via their substructure. The charge correlation ratio was recently shown to be sensitive to hadronization effects. Our work further improves this sensitivity to nonperturbative scales by introducing a new selection based on the relative placement of the within the clustering tree, defined as the unclustering that resolves the jet’s leading charged particles. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Apolinário, Liliana (ORCID:0000000335009681)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Behavioral patterns of bats at a wind turbine confirm seasonality of fatality risk

Abstract Bat fatalities at wind energy facilities in North America are predominantly comprised of migratory, tree‐dependent species, but it is unclear why these bats are at higher risk. Factors influencing bat susceptibility to wind turbines might be revealed by temporal patterns in their behaviors around these dynamic landscape structures. In northern temperate zones, fatalities occur mostly from July through October, but whether this reflects seasonally variable behaviors, passage of migrants, or some combination of factors remains unknown. In this study, we examined video imagery spanning one year in the state of Colorado in the United States, to characterize patterns of seasonal and nightly variability in bat behavior at a wind turbine. We detected bats on 177 of 306 nights representing approximately 3,800 hr of video and > 2,000 discrete bat events. We observed bats approaching the turbine throughout the night across all months during which bats were observed. Two distinct seasonal peaks of bat activity occurred in July and September, representing 30% and 42% increases in discrete bat events from the preceding months June and August, respectively. Bats exhibited behaviors around the turbine that increased in both diversity and duration in July and September. The peaks in bat events were reflected in chasing and turbine approach behaviors. Many of the bat events involved multiple approaches to the turbine, including when bats were displaced through the air by moving blades. The seasonal and nightly patterns we observed were consistent with the possibility that wind turbines invoke investigative behaviors in bats in late summer and autumn coincident with migration and that bats may return and fly close to wind turbines even after experiencing potentially disruptive stimuli like moving blades. Our results point to the need for a deeper understanding of the seasonality, drivers, and characteristics of bat movement across spatial scales.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Improved Sampling Algorithms in the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

The RISMC approach is developing advanced set of methodologies and algorithms in order to perform Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs). In contrast to classical PRA methods, which are based on Event-Tree and Fault-Tree methods, the RISMC approach largely employs system simulator codes applied to stochastic analysis tools. The basic idea is to randomly perturb (by employing sampling algorithms) timing and sequencing of events and internal parameters of the system codes (i.e., uncertain parameters) in order to estimate stochastic parameters such as core damage probability. This approach applied to complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires to perform a series of computationally expensive simulation runs given a large set of uncertain parameters. These types of analysis are affected by two issues. Firstly, the space of the possible solutions (a.k.a., the issue space or the response surface) can be sampled only very sparsely, and this precludes the ability to fully analyze the impact of uncertainties on the system dynamics. Secondly, large amounts of data are generated and tools to generate knowledge from such data sets are not yet available. This report focuses on the first issue and in particular employs novel methods that optimize the information generated by the sampling process by sampling unexplored and risk-significant regions of the issue space: adaptive (smart) sampling algorithms. They infer system response from surrogate models constructed from existing samples and predict the most relevant location of the next sample. It is therefore possible to understand features of the issue space with a small number of carefully selected samples. In this report, we will present how it is possible to perform adaptive sampling using the RISMC toolkit and highlight the advantages compared to more classical sampling approaches such Monte-Carlo. We will employ RAVEN to perform such statistical analyses using both analytical cases but also another RISMC code: RELAP-7.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

In situ monitoring of H and O stable isotopes in soil water reveals ecohydrologic dynamics in managed soil systems [Urban ecohydrologic dynamics revealed by in situ monitoring of H and O stable isotopes in soil water]

The water cycle in urban and hydrologically managed settings is subject to perturbations that are dynamic on small spatial and temporal scales; the effects of which may be especially profound in soils. We deploy a membrane inlet-based laser spectroscopy system in conjunction with soil moisture and temperature sensors to monitor soil water dynamics and H and O stable isotope ratios (δ 2 H and δ 18 O values) in a seasonally irrigated urban-landscaped garden soil over the course of 9 months between the cessation of irrigation in the autumn and the onset of irrigation through the summer. Here, we find that soil water δ 2 H and δ 18 O values predominately reflect seasonal precipitation and irrigation inputs. A comparison of total soil water by cryogenic extraction and mobile soil water measured by in situ water vapor probes reveals that initial infiltration events after long periods of soil drying (the autumn season in this case) emplace water into the soil matrix that is not easily replaced by, or mixed with, successive pulses of infiltrating soil water. Tree stem xylem water H and O stable isotope composition did not match that of available water sources. Our findings suggest that partitioning of soil water into mobile and immobile “pools” and resulting ecohydrologic separation may occur in engineered and hydrologically managed soils and not be limited to natural settings. Furthermore, the laser spectroscopy method detailed here has potential to yield insights in a variety of critical zone and vadose zone studies, potential that is heightened by the simplicity and portability of the system.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling pulsed soil respiration in an African savanna ecosystem

Savannas cover 60% of the African continent and play an important role in the global carbon (C) emissions from fire and land use. To better characterize the biophysical controls over soil respiration in these settings, half-hourly observations of volumetric soil-water content, temperature, and the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) at different soil depths were continually measured from 2005 to 2007 under trees ("sub-canopy") and between trees ("inter-canopy") in a savanna vegetation near Skukuza, Kruger National Park, South Africa. The measured soil climate and CO2 concentration data were assimilated into a process-based model that estimates the CO2 production and flux with coupled dynamics of dissolved organic C (DOC) and microbial biomass C. Our results show that temporal and spatial variations in CO2 flux were strongly influenced by precipitation and vegetation cover, with two times greater CO2 flux in the subcanopy plots (similar to 2421 g CO2 m(-2) yr(-1)) than in the inter-canopy plots (similar to 1290 g CO2 m(-2) yr(-1)). Precipitation influenced soil respiration by changing soil temperature and moisture; however, our modeling analysis suggests that the pulsed response of soil respiration to precipitation events (known as "Birch effect") is a key control on soil fluxes at this site. At this site, "Birch effect" contributed to approximately 50% and 65% of heterotrophic respiration or 20% and 39% of soil respiration in the sub-canopy and inter-canopy plots, respectively. These results suggest that pulsed response of respiration to precipitation events is an important component of the C cycle of savannas and should be considered in both measurement and modeling studies of carbon exchange in similar ecosystems. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Evaluation of The Dynamic Physical Security Risk Assessment Methodology for Fleet-Wide Applications

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This integrated process for physical security analysis is named Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). This document provides an update on the progress in applying the MASS-DEF process to an operating commercial nuclear power plant as well as additional industry feedback regarding use of the tool for other physical security risk-informed topics. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, and integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5 or MAAP. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report is an update the progress of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report also provides an update to the procedural guidance for the MASS-DEF process and an overview of the generic models available for use by utilities. This report does not contain any plant’s sensitive information and/or safeguards information. This study’s purpose was to verify that the results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights into the origin of halo mass profiles from machine learning

ABSTRACT The mass distribution of dark matter haloes is the result of the hierarchical growth of initial density perturbations through mass accretion and mergers. We use an interpretable machine-learning framework to provide physical insights into the origin of the spherically-averaged mass profile of dark matter haloes. We train a gradient-boosted-trees algorithm to predict the final mass profiles of cluster-sized haloes, and measure the importance of the different inputs provided to the algorithm. We find two primary scales in the initial conditions (ICs) that impact the final mass profile: the density at approximately the scale of the haloes’ Lagrangian patch RL ($R\sim 0.7\, R_L$) and that in the large-scale environment (R ∼ 1.7 RL). The model also identifies three primary time-scales in the halo assembly history that affect the final profile: (i) the formation time of the virialized, collapsed material inside the halo, (ii) the dynamical time, which captures the dynamically unrelaxed, infalling component of the halo over its first orbit, (iii) a third, most recent time-scale, which captures the impact on the outer profile of recent massive merger events. While the inner profile retains memory of the ICs, this information alone is insufficient to yield accurate predictions for the outer profile. As we add information about the haloes’ mass accretion history, we find a significant improvement in the predicted profiles at all radii. Our machine-learning framework provides novel insights into the role of the ICs and the mass assembly history in determining the final mass profile of cluster-sized haloes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling subauroral polarization streams during the 17 March 2013 storm

Abstract The subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) are one of the most important features in representing magnetosphere‐ionosphere coupling processes. In this study, we use a state‐of‐the‐art modeling framework that couples an inner magnetospheric ring current model RAM‐SCB with a global MHD model Block‐Adaptive Tree Solar‐wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS‐R‐US) and an ionospheric potential solver to study the SAPS that occurred during the 17 March 2013 storm event as well as to assess the modeling capability. Both ionospheric and magnetospheric signatures associated with SAPS are analyzed to understand the spatial and temporal evolution of the electrodynamics in the midlatitude regions. Results show that the model captures the SAPS at subauroral latitudes, where Region 2 field‐aligned currents (FACs) flow down to the ionosphere and the conductance is lower than in the higher‐latitude auroral zone. Comparisons to observations such as FACs observed by Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE), cross‐track ion drift from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), and in situ electric field observations from the Van Allen Probes indicate that the model generally reproduces the global dynamics of the Region 2 FACs, the position of SAPS along the DMSP, and the location of the SAPS electric field around L of 3.0 in the inner magnetosphere near the equator. The model also demonstrates double westward flow channels in the dusk sector (the higher‐latitude auroral convection and the subauroral SAPS) and captures the mechanism of the SAPS. However, the comparison with ion drifts along DMSP trajectories shows an underestimate of the magnitude of the SAPS and the sensitivity to the specific location and time. The comparison of the SAPS electric field with that measured from the Van Allen Probes shows that the simulated SAPS electric field penetrates deeper than in reality, implying that the shielding from the Region 2 FACs in the model is not well represented. Possible solutions in future studies to improve the modeling capability include implementing a self‐consistent ionospheric conductivity module from inner magnetosphere particle precipitation, coupling with the thermosphere‐ionosphere chemical processes, and connecting the ionosphere with the inner magnetosphere by the stronger Region 2 FACs calculated in the inner magnetosphere model.

Yu, Yiqun↗
DOE OSTI2017

Operational Performance Risk Assessment in Support of A Supervisory Control System

Supervisory control system (SCS) is developed for multi-unit advanced small modular reactors to minimize human interventions in both normal and abnormal operations. In SCS, control action decisions made based on probabilistic risk assessment approach via Event Trees/Fault Trees. Although traditional PRA tools are implemented, their scope is extended to normal operations and application is reversed; success of non-safety related system instead failure of safety systems this extended PRA approach called as operational performance risk assessment (OPRA). OPRA helps to identify success paths, combination of control actions for transients and to quantify these success paths to provide possible actions without activating plant protection system. In this paper, a case study of the OPRA in supervisory control system is demonstrated within the context of the ALMR PRISM design, specifically power conversion system. The scenario investigated involved a condition that the feed water control valve is observed to be drifting to the closed position. Alternative plant configurations were identified via OPRA that would allow the plant to continue to operate at full or reduced power. Dynamic analyses were performed with a thermal-hydraulic model of the ALMR PRISM system using Modelica to evaluate remained safety margins. Successful recovery paths for the selected scenario are identified and quantified via SCS.

Denning, Richard S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid Cis–Trans Coevolution Driven by a Novel Gene Retroposed from a Eukaryotic Conserved CCR4–NOT Component in Drosophila

Young, or newly evolved, genes arise ubiquitously across the tree of life, and they can rapidly acquire novel functions that influence a diverse array of biological processes. Previous work identified a young regulatory duplicate gene in Drosophila, Zeus that unexpectedly diverged rapidly from its parent, Caf40, an extremely conserved component in the CCR4–NOT machinery in post-transcriptional and post-translational regulation of eukaryotic cells, and took on roles in the male reproductive system. This neofunctionalization was accompanied by differential binding of the Zeus protein to loci throughout the Drosophila melanogaster genome. However, the way in which new DNA-binding proteins acquire and coevolve with their targets in the genome is not understood. Here, by comparing Zeus ChIP-Seq data from D. melanogaster and D. simulans to the ancestral Caf40 binding events from D. yakuba, a species that diverged before the duplication event, we found a dynamic pattern in which Zeus binding rapidly coevolved with a previously unknown DNA motif, which we term Caf40 and Zeus-Associated Motif (CAZAM), under the influence of positive selection. Interestingly, while both copies of Zeus acquired targets at male-biased and testis-specific genes, D. melanogaster and D. simulans proteins have specialized binding on different chromosomes, a pattern echoed in the evolution of the associated motif. Using CRISPR-Cas9-mediated gene knockout of Zeus and RNA-Seq, we found that Zeus regulated the expression of 661 differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Our results suggest that the evolution of young regulatory genes can be coupled to substantial rewiring of the transcriptional networks into which they integrate, even over short evolutionary timescales. Our results thus uncover dynamic genome-wide evolutionary processes associated with new genes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Classification of Molten Salt Heat Exchanger Channel Plugging using Synthetic Data

This report addresses the requirements of Milestone M3.4 AI capability to identify and predict maintenance events. Development of digital twins (DT) for molten salt reactor (MSR) components is crucial for reducing operating and maintenance costs (O&M) and ensuring commercial viability of these reactors. Our focus is on development of DT for MSR primary system heat exchanger (HX), a critical component, the fault in which can reduce operating efficiency and force reactor shutdown. We are investigating the feasibility of a conceptual DT of HX consisting of internal distributed temperature sensing with fiber optics and machine learning (ML) algorithms to detect and localize faults. To determine the optimal approach to detection and localization of channel plugging, we benchmark seven different ML models: Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree Classifier, Random Forest Tree Classifier, and Feed-Forward Neural Network. ML algorithms are benchmarked using synthetic HX plugging data generated with computational fluid dynamics COMSOL software, with added brown noise to represent experimental noise. We show that the best performance is obtained with the Decision Tree classifier.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗