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Parallel computer code for the simulator for dynamics of power systems which has the capability to initiate the system and create different faults for the dynamic analysis. The code is based on time-parallel method (Parareal) with Adaptive Method Reduction (AMR). The coarse solvers for the Parareal algorithm include several Semi Analytical Solution methods. Also, Integrated simulation of coupled transmission and distribution systems can be studied.

Simunovic, Srdjan [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL),↗

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗

H2 Materials Compatibility of Low Cost, High Pressure, Polymer H2 Dispensing Hoses

NanoSonic was recently awarded a DOE Phase IIB SBIR program for the commercialization of an innovative metal-free polymer based H2 dispensing hose to make H2 an economically viable fuel alternative to gasoline. During the Phase I and Phase II base programs, NanoSonic's H2 hose demonstrated ultra-high hydrostatic burst strength values > 31,000 psi where failure occurred due to fitting slippage, rather than hose burst. Additionally, our hoses survived > 51,000 pressure impulse cycles at 12,000 psi over a thermal cycle of -40 °C to 85 °C. These hoses also failed due to fitting slippage. Thus, our Phase IIB program is centralized on the addition of a new fitting, polymer hose refinement, and validation of a complete hose and fitting system certified for use with H2. While NanoSonic has partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to test our hose on their robotic H2 dispensing system, we are also seeking durability with the H2 environment at the molecular level. Here, NanoSonic proposes a CRADA with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), who has expertise in H2 polymer materials compatibility. Together, we will determine the lifetime of our H2 hose polymer and composite constituents via: 1) time-temperature superposition (TTS) studies via dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) under H2, 2) friction and wear resistance under in situ H2 tribometry, and 3) multi-axis strain testing under cryogenic conditions. PNNL has the unique test equipment essential to gain this type of insight and lifetime prediction data. Importantly, the work conducted under the proposed CRADA will increase the safety and reliability of our H2 hoses while expanding the market for use of our low H2 permeation polymers and durable cryogenic composites to realize the H2@Scale objectives to reduce the cost of H2.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Filling data analysis gaps in time-resolved crystallography by machine learning

There is a growing understanding of the structural dynamics of biological molecules fueled by x-ray crystallography experiments. Time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography (TR-SFX) with x-ray Free Electron Lasers allows the measurement of ultrafast structural changes in proteins. Nevertheless, this technique comes with some limitations. One major challenge is the quality of data from TR-SFX measurements, which often faces issues like data sparsity, partial recording of Bragg reflections, timing errors, and pixel noise. To overcome these difficulties, conventionally, large volumes of data are collected and grouped into a few temporal bins. The data in each bin are then averaged and paired with the mean of their corresponding jittered timestamps. This procedure provides one structure per bin, resulting in a limited number of averaged structures for the entire time interval spanned by the experiment. Therefore, the information on ultrafast structural dynamics at high temporal resolution is lost. This has initiated research for advanced methods of analyzing experimental TR-SFX data beyond the standard binning and averaging method. To address this problem, we use a machine learning algorithm called Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis (NLSA), which has emerged as a promising technique for studying the dynamics of complex systems. In this work, we demonstrate the power of this algorithm using synthetic x-ray diffraction snapshots from a protein with significant data incompleteness, timing uncertainties, and noise. Our study confirms that NLSA is a suitable approach that effectively mitigates the effects of these artifacts in TR-SFX data and recovers accurate structural dynamics information hidden in such data.

Trujillo, Justin (ORCID:0000000285505360)↗

What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create

A clear definition of system dynamics modeling can provide shared understanding and clarify the impact of the field. We introduce a set of characteristics that define quantitative system dynamics, selected to capture core philosophy, describe theoretical and practical principles, and apply to historical work but be flexible enough to remain relevant as the field progresses. The defining characteristics are: (1) models are based on causal feedback structure, (2) accumulations and delays are foundational, (3) models are equation-based, (4) concept of time is continuous, and (5) analysis focuses on feedback dynamics. We discuss the implications of these principles and use them to identify research opportunities in which the system dynamics field can advance. These research opportunities include causality, disaggregation, data science and AI, and contributing to scientific advancement. Progress in these areas has the potential to improve both the science and practice of system dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Detailed biomass fast pyrolysis kinetics integrated to computational fluid dynamic (CFD) and discrete element modeling framework: Predicting product yields at the bench-scale

Fast pyrolysis is an intricate process due to the variability and anisotropy of lignocellulosic biomass and the complicated chemistry and physics during conversion in a bubbling fluidized bed reactor (BFBR). The complexity of biomass fast pyrolysis lends itself well to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and discrete element (DEM) analysis, which promises to reduce experimental time and its associated cost. This work investigated switchgrass fast pyrolysis simulated by computational fluid dynamics coupled with a discrete element method to track individual reacting biomass particles throughout a bench-scale BFBR reactor. We accounted for the fast pyrolysis chemistry through a comprehensive reaction scheme with secondary cracking reactions. We performed a three-step reduction for secondary cracking reactions to convert the full cracking scheme into a reduced scheme easily incorporated into our model. We assessed the impact of operational conditions on the steady-state yields of liquid bio-oil, non-condensable gases (NCG), at 550 °C over a range of fluidization numbers (2 – 6 Umf), reported as a ratio to the minimum fluidization velocity (Umf). At steady-state, the volatile bio-oil yield had a range of 49.3–50.4 wt%. Levoglucosan was the primary volatile component present with 21 wt% of the bio-oil while water was the second largest with 20 wt%. The reduction of the secondary reaction schemes did not appreciably affect the overall yields of switchgrass pyrolysis compared to the full secondary scheme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Discovery of the Long-Period, Eccentric Planet Kepler-88 d and System Characterization with Radial Velocities and Photodynamical Analysis

We present the discovery of Kepler-88 d (P{sub d} = 1403±14 days, Msini{sub d}=965±44 M{sub ⊕}=3.04±0.13 M{sub J}, e{sub d}=0.41±0.03) based on six years of radial velocity (RV) follow-up from the W. M. Keck Observatory High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer spectrograph. Kepler-88 has two previously identified planets. Kepler-88 b (KOI-142.01) transits in the NASA Kepler photometry and has very large transit timing variations (TTVs). Nesvorný et al. performed a dynamical analysis of the TTVs to uniquely identify the orbital period and mass of the perturbing planet (Kepler-88 c), which was later was confirmed with RVs from the Observatoire de Haute-Provence (OHP). To fully explore the architecture of this system, we performed photodynamical modeling on the Kepler photometry combined with the RVs from Keck and OHP and stellar parameters from spectroscopy and Gaia. Planet d is not detectable in the photometry, and long-baseline RVs are needed to ascertain its presence. A photodynamical model simultaneously optimized to fit the RVs and Kepler photometry yields the most precise planet masses and orbital properties yet for b and c: P{sub b}=10.91647±0.00014 days, M{sub b}=9.5±1.2 M{sub ⊕}, P{sub c}=22.2649±0.0007 days, and M{sub c}=214.0±5.3 M{sub ⊕}. The photodynamical solution also finds that planets b and c have low eccentricites and low mutual inclination, are apsidally anti-aligned, and have conjunctions on the same hemisphere of the star. Continued RV follow-up of systems with small planets will improve our understanding of the link between inner planetary system architectures and giant planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Disruption event characterization and forecasting in tokamaks

Disruption prediction and avoidance is a critical need for next-step tokamaks, such as ITER. Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting (DECAF) research fully automates analysis of tokamak data to determine chains of events that lead to disruptions and to forecast their evolution allowing sufficient time for mitigation or complete avoidance of the disruption. Disruption event chains related to local rotating or global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes and vertical instability are examined with warnings issued for many off-normal physics events, including density limits, plasma dynamics, confinement transitions, and profile variations. Along with Greenwald density limit evaluation, a local radiative island power balance theory is evaluated and compared to the observation of island growth. Automated decomposition and analysis of rotating tearing modes produce physical event chains leading to disruptions. A total MHD state warning model comprised of 15 separate criteria produces a disruption forecast about 180 ms before a standard locked mode detector warning. Single DECAF event analyses have begun on KSTAR, MAST, and NSTX/-U databases with thousands of shot seconds of device operation using from 0.5 to 1 × 10 6 tested sample times per device. An initial multi-device database comparison illustrates a highly important result that plasma disruptivity does not need to increase as βN increases. Global MHD instabilities, such as resistive wall modes (RWMs), can give the briefest time period of warning before disruption compared to other physics events. In an NSTX database with unstable RWMs, the mode onset, loss of boundary and current control, and disruption event warnings are found in all cases and vertical displacement events are found in 91% of cases. An initial time-dependent reduced physics model of kinetic RWM stabilization created to forecast the disruption chain predicts instability 84% of the time for experimentally unstable cases with a relatively low false positive rate. Instances of the disruption event chain analysis illustrate dynamics including H–L back transitions for rotating MHD and global RWM triggering events. Furthermore, disruption warnings are issued with sufficient time before the disruption (on transport timescales) to potentially allow active profile control for disruption avoidance, active mode control, or mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Dynamic mode decomposition for gyrokinetic eigenmode analysis

Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a post-processing approach to decompose a complex time series into a set of modes via spectral analysis. DMD provides a new and powerful method to recover gyrokinetic drift-wave eigenfrequencies and eigenfunctions based only on the solution of the gyrokinetic-Maxwell initial value problem with almost no added cost to the initial value solver. In the present paper, DMD is applied to the CGYRO gyrokinetic code using a newly-developed CGYRO-DMD post-processor. CGYRO-DMD is numerically efficient, even on a single CPU. It does not set any restrictions on the plasma shape, beta (ratio of the plasma pressure to the magnetic field pressure), collisionality or number of species, and allows one to resolve numerous eigenmodes, even of comparable growth rates. In addition, DMD is not limited to unstable modes, but rather can capture stable and unstable branches simultaneously. In this work, we illustrate the accuracy of DMD through gyrokinetic analysis of mode transition for electromagnetic drift wave instabilities.

drift-wave eigenmodes↗

Engineering micromotion in Floquet prethermalization via space-time symmetries

We present a systematic framework for Floquet prethermalization under strong resonant driving, emphasizing the pivotal role of dynamical space-time symmetries. Our approach demonstrates how dynamical space-time symmetries map onto the projective static symmetry group of the prethermal Hamiltonian governing the prethermal regime. We introduce techniques for detecting dynamical symmetries through the time evolution of local observables, facilitating a detailed analysis of micromotion within each period and surpassing the limitations of conventional stroboscopic Floquet prethermal dynamics. To implement this framework, we present a prethermal protocol that preserves order-2 dynamical symmetry in a spin-ladder model, confirming the predicted relationships between the expectation values of local observables at distinct temporal points in the Floquet cycle, linked by this symmetry.

floquet systems↗

CSPlib

This computational singular perturbation library (CSPlib) software is useful for analysis of chemical kinetic systems. The code is used to analyze and describe the dynamical landscape underlying the time evolution of a chemical system. Given a database of state vectors, it allows the analysis of the source term and Jacobian matrix of the chemical system, the identification and decoupling of fast and slow processes, and the analysis of cause-and-effect relationships in the coupled system dynamics. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-2391 O

Najm, HabibN.↗

Training data selection for event classification in a highly variable environment

A problem of interest for nuclear nonproliferation is monitoring activities at nuclear facilities, where proliferation events may only take place a few times and often under variable conditions. Machine learning has revolutionized data analytics by enabling the use of measurable signatures to generate predictive models of facility operations. However, traditional methods for training these models require large, reliable data sets with labeled observations, a challenge for nonproliferation. Highly variable conditions further complicate this as events from training data may have occurred in conditions quite different from the event of interest. Our hypothesis is that when events occur in a highly variable environment, careful training data selection for each test event could outperform the standard approach of using all available training data. We developed a method to optimize training data selection for the given test event and applied it to predicting the power level of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In this study, the reactor startup exhibits variability between occurrences due to natural variability in environmental conditions and operational procedures. Using a combination of analysis techniques, a similitude assessment was performed on data collected from HFIR to isolate clusters that were optimal for training a predictive model. Concepts such as dynamic time warping and Jaccard similarity were used in conjunction with clustering analysis. In order to validate this approach, the model was trained on every combination of unique training events and the predictive performance was compared to the performance using a subset of the training data selected by isolated clusters found through the similitude assessment.

Iyer, A↗

Semantics-enabled Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Earth Observation Data: An application to Flood Monitoring

Extreme events such as urban floods are dynamic in nature, i.e. they evolve with time. The spatiotemporal analysis of such disastrous events is important for understanding the resiliency of an urban system during these events. Remote Sensing (RS) data is one of the crucial earth observation (EO) data sources that can facilitate such spatiotemporal analysis due to its wide spatial coverage and high temporal availability. In this paper, we propose a discrete mereotopology (DM) based approach to enable representation and querying of spatiotemporal information from a series of multitemporal RS images that are acquired during a flood disaster event. We represent this spatiotemporal information using a semantic model called Dynamic Flood Ontology (DFO). To establish the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed approach, spatiotemporal queries relevant during an urban flood scenario such as, show me road segments that were partially flooded during the time interval t1 have been demonstrated with promising results.

Kurte, Kuldeep↗

Enabling topography-resolving structural dynamic contact simulation

Damping of structures and systems is often dominated by frictional dissipation in connections, the prediction of which remains a longstanding scientific challenge. Previous studies have shown that the actual topography of contact interfaces may have a strong effect, especially in the partial slip/liftoff regime. We recently proposed a multi-scale method, which couples finite element and boundary element modeling. The primary benefit of this approach is that it permits to analyze the effect of the actual contact topography on the dynamics of jointed structures. While this multi-scale modeling method was initially developed for quasi-static analysis, we demonstrate herein how it can be used for time step integration and Harmonic Balance analysis. We cross-verify those fully dynamic analysis methods against each other and quasi-static results, for the S4 Beam benchmark. We compare the multi-scale method against state-of-the-art full-FE analysis, in terms of numerical damping and computational performance. Some discrepancy is found to be of physical origin. Depending on the load history, it is shown that the system settles to a slightly different equilibrium. Finally, transient multi-scale simulations enable the prediction of this interesting phenomenon, for the first time, for a structure with bolted joints.

Frictional-unilateral contact↗

Analog Computing for Science

Conventional digital computing faces fundamental physical limits: large scale computing systems already con sume tens of Megawatts of power, Dennard scaling has ended, and data movement costs dominate application performance. Next generation experimental facilities generate data at rates that overwhelm conventional pro cessing and demand real-time analysis at the source. Analog computing, which exploits the continuous dynamics of physical systems to perform computation, promises a transformative path toward orders-of-magnitude gains in energy efficiency and time-to-solution for scientific workloads.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nonadiabatic dynamics of photoexcited thiopyridone isomers: An interplay between El-Sayed’s conditions and energy gap law

We investigated the non-adiabatic dynamics of photoexcited thiopyridone systems across their ortho-, meta-, and para-isomeric forms. The relaxation pathways of the three isomers in both gas phase and solvent environments are mapped using surface hopping dynamics based on time-dependent density functional theory. Our analysis highlights the influence of isomeric structures on photophysical behavior, offering insights into design principles to control photochemical phenomena. The simulations suggest a systematic reduction in the rate of intersystem crossing (ISC) from ortho- to meta- to para-isomer. Comparisons with multiconfigurational wave function methods in the gas phase further demonstrate how electronic structure influences the predicted dynamical pathways. The simulated dynamics demonstrates that the spin–orbit coupling strength alone does not determine the rate of ISC, as both state energetics and underlying electronic and structural features play decisive roles. These aspects explain the much slower ISC in the para-isomer, as well as the non-negligible role of the El-Sayed forbidden pathway in the computed ISC dynamics.

Complete-active space self-consistent field↗

Temperature and nutrients drive eco-phenotypic dynamics in a microbial food web

Anthropogenic increases in temperature and nutrient loads will likely impact food web structure and stability. Although their independent effects have been reasonably well studied, their joint effects—particularly on coupled ecological and phenotypic dynamics—remain poorly understood. Here we experimentally manipulated temperature and nutrient levels in microbial food webs and used time-series analysis to quantify the strength of reciprocal effects between ecological and phenotypic dynamics across trophic levels. We found that (1) joint—often interactive—effects of temperature and nutrients on ecological dynamics are more common at higher trophic levels, (2) temperature and nutrients interact to shift the relative strength of top-down versus bottom-up control, and (3) rapid phenotypic change mediates observed ecological responses to changes in temperature and nutrients. Our results uncover how feedback between ecological and phenotypic dynamics mediate food web responses to environmental change. As a result, this suggests important but previously unknown ways that temperature and nutrients might jointly control the rapid eco-phenotypic feedback that determine food web dynamics in a changing world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Dynamic Modeling in Power Systems: A Fresh Look on Inverter-Based Resource Modeling

Here, this article introduces ways to identify dynamic system models using measurement data. In power system analysis, a static model represents the time-invariant input-output relationship of a system, while a dynamic model describes the behavior of the system over time. For example, how will a system transit from one steady-state operation point to another?

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗