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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Bioverse: A Simulation Framework to Assess the Statistical Power of Future Biosignature Surveys

Next-generation space observatories will conduct the first systematic surveys of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres and search for evidence of life beyond Earth. While in-depth observations of the nearest habitable worlds may yield enticing results, there are fundamental questions about planetary habitability and evolution that can only be answered through population-level studies of dozens to hundreds of terrestrial planets. To determine the requirements for next-generation observatories to address these questions, we have developed Bioverse. Bioverse combines existing knowledge of exoplanet statistics with a survey simulation and hypothesis testing framework to determine whether proposed space-based direct imaging and transit-spectroscopy surveys will be capable of detecting various hypothetical statistical relationships between the properties of terrestrial exoplanets. Following a description of the code, we apply Bioverse to determine whether an ambitious direct imaging or transit survey would be able to determine the extent of the circumstellar habitable zone and study the evolution of Earth-like planets. Given recent evidence that Earth-sized habitable zone planets are likely much rarer than previously believed, we find that space missions with large search volumes will be necessary to study the population of terrestrial and habitable worlds. Moving forward, Bioverse provides a methodology for performing trade studies of future observatory concepts to maximize their ability to address population-level questions, including and beyond the specific examples explored here.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced Late Bombardment on Rocky Exoplanets around M Dwarfs

Ocean-vaporizing impacts of chemically reduced planetesimals onto the early Earth have been suggested to catalyze atmospheric production of reduced nitrogen compounds and trigger prebiotic synthesis despite an oxidized lithosphere. While geochemical evidence supports a dry, highly reduced late veneer on Earth, the composition of late-impacting debris around lower-mass stars is subject to variable volatile loss as a result of their hosts' extended pre-main-sequence phase. We perform simulations of late-stage planet formation across the M-dwarf mass spectrum to derive upper limits on reducing bombardment epochs in Hadean-analog environments. We contrast the solar system scenario with varying initial volatile distributions due to extended primordial runaway greenhouse phases on protoplanets and the desiccation of smaller planetesimals by internal radiogenic heating. We find a decreasing rate of late-accreting reducing impacts with decreasing stellar mass. Young planets around stars ≤0.4 M ⊙ experience no impacts of sufficient mass to generate prebiotically relevant concentrations of reduced atmospheric compounds once their stars have reached the main sequence. For M-dwarf planets to not exceed Earth-like concentrations of volatiles, both planetesimals, and larger protoplanets must undergo extensive devolatilization processes and can typically emerge from long-lived magma ocean phases with sufficient atmophile content to outgas secondary atmospheres. Our results suggest that transiently reducing surface conditions on young rocky exoplanets are favored around FGK stellar types relative to M dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Kepler-1661 b: A Neptune-sized Kepler Transiting Circumbinary Planet around a Grazing Eclipsing Binary

We report the discovery of a Neptune-sized (R{sub p}=3.87±0.06R{sub ⊕}) transiting circumbinary planet, Kepler-1661 b, found in the Kepler photometry. The planet has a period of ∼175 days and its orbit precesses with a period of only 35 yr. The precession causes the alignment of the orbital planes to vary, and the planet is in a transiting configuration only ∼7% of the time as seen from Earth. As with several other Kepler circumbinary planets, Kepler-1661 b orbits close to the stability radius, and is near the (hot) edge of the habitable zone. The planet orbits a single-lined, grazing eclipsing binary, containing a 0.84 M{sub ⊙} and 0.26 M{sub ⊙} pair of stars in a mildly eccentric (e = 0.11), 28.2 day orbit. The system is fairly young, with an estimated age of ∼1–3 Gyr, and exhibits significant starspot modulations. The grazing eclipse configuration means the system is very sensitive to changes in the binary inclination, which manifests itself as a change in the eclipse depth. The starspots contaminate the eclipse photometry, but not in the usual way of inducing spurious eclipse timing variations. Rather, the starspots alter the normalization of the light curve, and hence the eclipse depths. This can lead to spurious eclipse depth variations, which are then incorrectly ascribed to binary orbital precession.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

TESS Discovery of a Super-Earth and Three Sub-Neptunes Hosted by the Bright, Sun-like Star HD 108236

We report the discovery and validation of four extrasolar planets hosted by the nearby, bright, Sun-like (G3V) star HD 108236 using data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). We present transit photometry, reconnaissance, and precise Doppler spectroscopy, as well as high-resolution imaging, to validate the planetary nature of the objects transiting HD 108236, also known as the TESS Object of Interest (TOI) 1233. The innermost planet is a possibly rocky super-Earth with a period of 3.79523{sub −0.00044}{sup +0.00047} days and has a radius of 1.586 ± 0.098 R {sub ⊕}. The outer planets are sub-Neptunes, with potential gaseous envelopes, having radii of 2.068{sub −0.091}{sup +0.10} R {sub ⊕}, 2.72 ± 0.11 R {sub ⊕}, and 3.12{sub −0.12}{sup +0.13} R {sub ⊕} and periods of 6.20370{sub −0.00052}{sup +0.00064} days, 14.17555{sub −0.0011}{sup +0.00099} days, and 19.5917{sub −0.0020}{sup +0.0022} days, respectively. With V and K {sub s} magnitudes of 9.2 and 7.6, respectively, the bright host star makes the transiting planets favorable targets for mass measurements and, potentially, for atmospheric characterization via transmission spectroscopy. HD 108236 is the brightest Sun-like star in the visual (V) band known to host four or more transiting exoplanets. The discovered planets span a broad range of planetary radii and equilibrium temperatures and share a common history of insolation from a Sun-like star (R {sub ⋆} = 0.888 ± 0.017 R {sub ⊙}, T {sub eff} = 5730 ± 50 K), making HD 108236 an exciting, opportune cosmic laboratory for testing models of planet formation and evolution.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

How to create an artificial magnetosphere for Mars

If humanity is ever to consider substantial, long-term colonization of Mars, the resources needed are going to be extensive. For a long-term human presence on Mars to be established, serious thought would need to be given to terraforming the planet. One major requirement for such terraforming is having the protection of a planetary magnetic field - which Mars currently does not have. Here, the Earth's magnetosphere helps protect the planet from the potential sterilizing effects of cosmic rays and also helps retain the atmosphere, which would otherwise by stripped by large solar storms as they pass over the planet. Mars does have small patches of remnant surface magnetic field, but these are localized in the southern hemisphere and are not of sufficient size or magnitude to protect the planet or a colony.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the effect of late bombardment on terrestrial zircons

The first 500 million years of Earth history is thought to be a period of intense planetary bombardment, but the timing and flux of this meteorite bombardment is poorly understood. In particular, on the basis of an inferred lunar impact history, some workers have hypothesized a ~3.9 Ga terminal cataclysm (TC) in which there was marked increase in the impact flux affecting the Moon, the Earth and possibly other terrestrial planets. Minerals that survived this enigmatic period offer a way to test early planetary bombardment models as they may contain telltale micro- to nanoscale shock features. Here, we present results from a numerical modeling calculation that assesses the probability that a zircon residing in the crust would escape shock melting or shock deformation during a TC bombardment event. Even with conservative pressure estimates for zircon shock deformation and intermediate bombardment intensities, we find that only ~6% of ≥4.0 Ga crust would be expected to survive a 3.9 Ga cataclysm without experiencing either complete melting or zircon shock metamorphism. In this study, we couple this modeling with a search for shock effects in the oldest zircons from the Acasta Gneiss Complex, which would have been present in the Earth's crust during a putative 3.9 Ga TC. Spatially correlated electron and NanoSIMS ion microscopy of 4.02 Ga igneous zircons from Acasta reveals no evidence of ancient shock. These data, together with similar results from other Hadean zircon suites, confirm that a post-Hadean TC is unlikely to have occurred. We suggest that the dearth of pre-3.9 Ga terrestrial crust and zircons is instead best explained by endogenic processes related to the mechanisms of early crust formation. Our modeling allows us to evaluate bombardment scenarios from the terrestrial zircon record by applying probabilistic interpretations to zircon shock deformation data. This approach will be valuable for other planetary bodies, allowing broader conclusions to be drawn from geographically limited datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

TOI-431/HIP 26013: a super-Earth and a sub-Neptune transiting a bright, early K dwarf, with a third RV planet

ABSTRACT We present the bright (Vmag = 9.12), multiplanet system TOI-431, characterized with photometry and radial velocities (RVs). We estimate the stellar rotation period to be 30.5 ± 0.7 d using archival photometry and RVs. Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) objects of Interest (TOI)-431 b is a super-Earth with a period of 0.49 d, a radius of 1.28 ± 0.04 R⊕, a mass of 3.07 ± 0.35 M⊕, and a density of 8.0 ± 1.0 g cm−3; TOI-431 d is a sub-Neptune with a period of 12.46 d, a radius of 3.29 ± 0.09 R⊕, a mass of $9.90^{+1.53}_{-1.49}$ M⊕, and a density of 1.36 ± 0.25 g cm−3. We find a third planet, TOI-431 c, in the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher RV data, but it is not seen to transit in the TESS light curves. It has an Msin i of $2.83^{+0.41}_{-0.34}$ M⊕, and a period of 4.85 d. TOI-431 d likely has an extended atmosphere and is one of the most well-suited TESS discoveries for atmospheric characterization, while the super-Earth TOI-431 b may be a stripped core. These planets straddle the radius gap, presenting an interesting case-study for atmospheric evolution, and TOI-431 b is a prime TESS discovery for the study of rocky planet phase curves.

Osborn, Ares↗
DOE OSTI2022

Did Earth Eat Its Leftovers? Impact Ejecta as a Component of the Late Veneer

The presence of highly siderophile elements in Earth's mantle indicates that a small percentage of Earth's mass was delivered after the last giant impact in a stage of "late accretion." There is ongoing debate about the nature of late-accreted material and the sizes of late-accreted bodies. Earth appears isotopically most similar to enstatite chondrites and achondrites. It has been suggested that late accretion must have been dominated by enstatite-like bodies that originated in the inner disk, rather than ordinary or carbonaceous chondrites. Here we examine the provenances of "leftover" planetesimals present in the inner disk in the late stages of accretion simulations. Dynamically excited planet formation produces planets and embryos with similar provenances, suggesting that the Moon-forming impactor may have had a stable isotope composition very similar to the proto-Earth. Commonly, some planetesimal-sized bodies with similar provenances to the Earth-like planets are left at the end of the main stage of growth. The most chemically similar planetesimals are typically fragments of protoplanets ejected millions of years earlier. If these similar-provenance bodies are later accreted by the planet, they will represent late-accreted mass that naturally matches Earth's composition. The planetesimal-sized bodies that exist during the giant impact phase can have large core mass fractions, with core provenances similar to the proto-Earth. These bodies are an important potential source for highly siderophile elements. The range of core fractions in leftover planetesimals complicates simple inferences as to the mass and origin of late accretion based on the highly siderophile elements in the mantle.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Featureless Infrared Transmission Spectrum for the Super-puff Planet Kepler-79d

Extremely low-density planets (“super-puffs”) are a small but intriguing subset of the transiting planet population. With masses in the super-Earth range (1 − 10 M{sub ⊕}) and radii akin to those of giant planets (> 4 R{sub ⊕}), their large envelopes may have been accreted beyond the water snow line and many appear to be susceptible to catastrophic mass loss. Both the presence of water and the importance of mass loss can be explored using transmission spectroscopy. Here, we present new Hubble space telescope WFC3 spectroscopy and updated Kepler transit depth measurements for the super-puff Kepler-79d. We do not detect any molecular absorption features in the 1.1 − 1.7 μm WFC3 bandpass, and the combined Kepler and WFC3 data are consistent with a flat-line model, indicating the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. We compare the shape of Kepler-79d’s transmission spectrum to predictions from a microphysical haze model that incorporates an outward particle flux due to ongoing mass loss. We find that photochemical hazes offer an attractive explanation for the observed properties of super-puffs like Kepler-79d, as they simultaneously render the near-infrared spectrum featureless and reduce the inferred envelope mass-loss rate by moving the measured radius (optical depth unity surface during transit) to lower pressures. We revisit the broader question of mass-loss rates for super-puffs and find that the age estimates and mass-loss rates for the majority of super-puffs can be reconciled if hazes move the photosphere from the typically assumed pressure of ∼10 mbar to ∼10 μbar.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Earth as an Exoplanet. I. Time Variable Thermal Emission Using Spatially Resolved Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer Data

Among the more than 4000 exoplanets known today, some terrestrial planets have been detected in the so-called habitable zone of their host stars and their number is expected to increase in the near future, energizing a drive to understand and interpret the eagerly awaited wealth of data to identify signs of life beyond our solar system. So far, Earth remains the best and only example of a habitable (and inhabited) world. Although, it seems extremely unlikely that any other exoplanets will be true Earth twins, it is important to explore and understand the full range of spectral signatures and variability of Earth in order to inform the design of future instruments and missions, and understand their diagnostic power as well as potential limitations. In this work we use Earth observation data collected by the MODIS instrument aboard the Aqua satellite. The complete data set comprises 15 years of thermal emission observations in the 3.66–14.40 μm range for five different locations on Earth (Amazon Rainforest, Antarctica, Arctic, Indian Ocean, and the Sahara Desert). We then determine flux levels and variations as a function of wavelength and surface type (i.e., climate zone and surface thermal properties) and investigate whether periodic signals indicating Earth’s tilted rotation axis can be detected. Our findings suggest that (1) viewing geometry plays an important role when thermal emission data is analyzed as Earth’s spectrum varies by a factor of three and more depending on the dominant surface type underneath; (2) typically strong absorption bands from CO 2 (15 μm) and O 3 (9.65 μm) are significantly less pronounced and partially absent in data from the polar regions implying that estimating correct abundance levels for these molecules might be challenging in these cases; and (3) the time-resolved thermal emission spectrum encodes information about seasons/planetary obliquity, but the significance depends on the viewing geometry and spectral band considered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab initio prediction of an order-disorder transition in Mg 2 Ge O 4 : Implication for the nature of super-Earth's mantles

Here we present an ab initio prediction of an order-disorder transition (ODT) from a I¯42d-type to Th 3 P 4 -type phase in the cation sublattices of Mg 2 GeO 4 , a post-post-perovskite phase. This uncommon type of prediction is achieved by carrying out a high-throughput sampling of atomic configurations in a 56-atom supercell followed by a Boltzmann ensemble statistics calculation. Mg 2 GeO 4 is a low-pressure analog of I¯42d-type Mg 2 SiO 4 , a predicted major planet-forming phase of super-Earths' mantles. Therefore, a similar ODT is anticipated in I¯42d-type Mg 2 SiO 4 as well, which should impact the internal structure and dynamics of these planets. Furthermore, the prediction of this Th 3 P 4 -type phase in Mg 2 GeO 4 further enhances the relationship between the crystal structures of Earth/planet-forming silicates and oxides at extreme pressures and those of rare-earth sesquisulfides at low pressures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

TOI-1749: an M dwarf with a Trio of Planets including a Near-resonant Pair

We report the discovery of one super-Earth- (TOI-1749b) and two sub-Neptune-sized planets (TOI-1749c and TOI-1749d) transiting an early M dwarf at a distance of 100 pc, which were first identified as planetary candidates using data from the TESS photometric survey. We have followed up this system from the ground by means of multiband transit photometry, adaptive optics imaging, and low-resolution spectroscopy, from which we have validated the planetary nature of the candidates. We find that TOI-1749b, c, and d have orbital periods of 2.39, 4.49, and 9.05 days, and radii of 1.4, 2.1, and 2.5 R {sub ⊕}, respectively. We also place 95% confidence upper limits on the masses of 57, 14, and 15 M {sub ⊕} for TOI-1749b, c, and d, respectively, from transit timing variations. The periods, sizes, and tentative masses of these planets are in line with a scenario in which all three planets initially had a hydrogen envelope on top of a rocky core, and only the envelope of the innermost planet has been stripped away by photoevaporation and/or core-powered mass-loss mechanisms. These planets are similar to other planetary trios found around M dwarfs, such as TOI-175b,c,d and TOI-270b,c,d, in the sense that the outer pair has a period ratio within 1% of 2. Such a characteristic orbital configuration, in which an additional planet is located interior to a near 2:1 period-ratio pair, is relatively rare around FGK dwarfs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mutual Detectability: A Targeted SETI Strategy That Avoids the SETI Paradox

As our ability to undertake searches for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) grows, so does interest in the controversial endeavor of messaging extraterrestrial intelligence (METI). METI proponents point to the SETI Paradox—if all civilizations refrain from METI then SETI is futile. I introduce mutual detectability as a game-theoretic strategy to increase the success potential of targeted SETI. Mutual detectability comprises four laws that establish how SETI participants can engage each other based on mutual evidence of mutual existence. I argue that the party whom both SETI participants can judge to have better quality evidence, or common denominator information (CDI), has an onus to transmit to avoid the SETI Paradox. Transiting exoplanets within the Earth Transit Zone form a target subset that satisfies mutual detectability requirements. I identify the intrinsic time-integrated transit signal strength, which for Earth is 10{sup 3} L{sub ⊙} ppm hours yr{sup −1}, as suitable CDI. Civilizations on habitable-zone planets of radius R{sub p}/R{sub ⊕}≲(L{sub ∗}/L{sub ⊙}){sup −1/7} have superior CDI on us, and so under the mutual detectability framework have game-theory incentive (onus) to transmit. While the onus to transmit falls on us for habitable planets around L{sub *} > L{sub ⊙} stars, considerations of relative stellar frequency, main-sequence lifetime and planet occurrence rates mean that such systems are likely to be in a small minority. Surveys of the Earth Transit Zone for Earth-analog transiting planets around subsolar luminosity hosts would facilitate targeted SETI programs for civilizations who have game-theory incentive to transmit signals to us. A choice to remain silent, by not engaging in METI toward such systems, does not in this case fuel concerns of a SETI Paradox.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hubble WFC3 Spectroscopy of the Habitable-zone Super-Earth LHS 1140 b

Atmospheric characterization of temperate, rocky planets is the holy grail of exoplanet studies. These worlds are at the limits of our capabilities with current instrumentation in transmission spectroscopy and challenge our state-of-the-art statistical techniques. Here we present the transmission spectrum of the temperate super-Earth LHS 1140b using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) G141 grism data of this habitable-zone (T {sub eq} = 235 K) super-Earth (R = 1.7 R {sub ⊕}) shows tentative evidence of water. However, the signal-to-noise ratio, and thus the significance of the detection, is low and stellar contamination models can cause modulation over the spectral band probed. We attempt to correct for contamination using these models and find that, while many still lead to evidence for water, some could provide reasonable fits to the data without the need for molecular absorption although most of these cause features in the visible ground-based data which are nonphysical. Future observations with the James Webb Space Telescope would be capable of confirming, or refuting, this atmospheric detection.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mixing of Condensable Constituents with H–He during the Formation and Evolution of Jupiter

Simulations of Jupiter's formation are presented that incorporate mixing of H–He with denser material entering the planet as solids. Heavy compounds and gas mix substantially when the planet becomes roughly as massive as Earth, because incoming planetesimals can fully vaporize. Supersaturation of vaporized silicates causes the excess to sink as droplets, but water remains at higher altitudes. Because the mean molecular weight decreases rapidly outward, some of the compositional inhomogeneities produced during formation can survive for billions of years. After 4.57 Gyr, our Jupiter model retains compositional gradients; proceeding outward, one finds (i) an inner heavy-element core, the outer part derived from hot supersaturated rain-out; (ii) a composition-gradient region, containing most of the heavy elements, where H–He abundance increases outward, reaching about 0.9 mass fraction at 0.3 of the radius, with silicates enhanced relative to water in the lower parts and depleted in the upper parts; (iii) a uniform-composition region (neglecting He immiscibility) that is enriched over protosolar and contains most of the planet’s mass; and (iv) an outer region where cloud formation (condensation) of heavy constituents occurs. This radial compositional profile has heavy elements more broadly distributed than predicted by classical formation models but less diluted than suggested by Juno-constrained gravity models. The compositional gradients in the region containing the bulk of the heavy elements prevent convection, in both our models and those fitting current gravity, resulting in a hot interior where much of the accretion energy remains trapped.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental observations of detached bow shock formation in the interaction of a laser-produced plasma with a magnetized obstacle

The magnetic field produced by planets with active dynamos, like the Earth, can exert sufficient pressure to oppose supersonic stellar wind plasmas, leading to the formation of a standing bow shock upstream of the magnetopause, or pressure-balance surface. Scaled laboratory experiments studying the interaction of an inflowing solar wind analog with a strong, external magnetic field are a promising new way to study magnetospheric physics and to complement existing models, although reaching regimes favorable for magnetized shock formation is experimentally challenging. This paper presents experimental evidence of the formation of a magnetized bow shock in the interaction of a supersonic, super-Alfvenic plasma with a strongly magnetized obstacle at the OMEGA laser facility. The solar wind analog is generated by the collision and subsequent expansion of two counterpropagating, laser-driven plasma plumes. The magnetized obstacle is a thin wire, driven with strong electrical currents. Hydrodynamic simulations using the FLASH code predict that the colliding plasma source meets the criteria for bow shock formation. Spatially resolved, optical Thomson scattering measures the electron number density, and optical emission lines provide a measurement of the plasma temperature, from which we infer the presence of a fast magnetosonic shock far upstream of the obstacle. Proton images provide a measure of large-scale features in the magnetic field topology, and reconstructed path-integrated magnetic field maps from these images suggest the formation of a bow shock upstream of the wire and as a transient magnetopause. Finally, we compare features in the reconstructed fields to two-dimensional MHD simulations of the system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep-branching acetogens in serpentinized subsurface fluids of Oman

Little is known of acetogens in contemporary serpentinizing systems, despite widely supported theories that serpentinite-hosted environments supported the first life on Earth via acetogenesis. To address this knowledge gap, genome-resolved metagenomics was applied to subsurface fracture water communities from an area of active serpentinization in the Samail Ophiolite, Sultanate of Oman. Two deeply branching putative bacterial acetogen types were identified in the communities belonging to the Acetothermia (hereafter, types I and II) that exhibited distinct distributions among waters with lower and higher water–rock reaction (i.e., serpentinization influence), respectively. Metabolic reconstructions revealed contrasting core metabolic pathways of type I and II Acetothermia, including in acetogenic pathway components (e.g., bacterial- vs. archaeal-like carbon monoxide dehydrogenases [CODH], respectively), hydrogen use to drive acetogenesis, and chemiosmotic potential generation via respiratory (type I) or canonical acetogen ferredoxin-based complexes (type II). Notably, type II Acetothermia metabolic pathways allow for use of serpentinization-derived substrates and implicate them as key primary producers in contemporary hyperalkaline serpentinite environments. Phylogenomic analyses indicate that 1) archaeal-like CODH of the type II genomes and those of other serpentinite-associated Bacteria derive from a deeply rooted horizontal transfer or origin among archaeal methanogens and 2) Acetothermia are among the earliest evolving bacterial lineages. The discovery of dominant and early-branching acetogens in subsurface waters of the largest near-surface serpentinite formation provides insight into the physiological traits that likely facilitated rock-supported life to flourish on a primitive Earth and possibly on other rocky planets undergoing serpentinization.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Cislunar Orbit Lifetimes from Initial Orbital Elements

The volume of space between Earth’s geosynchronous orbit out to the Moon’s sphere of influence, including the lunar Lagrange points, is crucial for the successful planning and execution of space missions, but not fully understood dynamically. This region is a part of cislunar space. Trajectories through cislunar space are influenced by the gravitational forces of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and other Solar System planets leading to typically unpredictable and chaotic trajectory behavior. It is therefore difficult to predict the stability of an trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial conditions or orbital elements. We simulate one million cislunar orbits to train a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the trajectories and orbits into families based on how long they remain stable within the cislunar space. Using the trained SOM, we are able to predict the stable lifetime of a trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial orbital elements to within an accuracy of 10% for 8% of simulated trajectories and within 50% for 43% of the simulated trajectories. Clustering in the SOM suggests that a variety of trajectory morphologies have similar lifetimes. Once trained, the SOM can predict the stable lifetime of a given cislunar trajectory within milliseconds. The methods developed in this work enable the rapid identification of stable cislunar orbits and trajectories that could be used for future space exploration. Moreover, the developed SOM method can generate orbital and trajectory lifetime estimates from minimal observational data, such as a single two line element, making it useful for early warning systems and large-scale sensor network operations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗