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At least 91 records · Page 5

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Emergency core cooling system performance criteria for Multi-Layered Silicon Carbide nuclear fuel cladding

Multi-layered Silicon Carbide (SiC) cladding has been proposed to replace the current Zircaloy (Zr) cladding in existing nuclear power plants. Due to its ceramic property, SiC may have a different failure mechanism from that of metallic Zr clad. This characteristic should be considered in designing the plant’s safety system performance, such that the fuel’s integrity is reasonably assured during accident scenarios. This paper aims at optimizing the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) performance criteria in mitigating LBLOCA accidents at a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) using the uranium dioxide fuel and duplex or triplex SiC cladding structures. Clad failures by brittle fractures and thermal degradation were modeled in a fuel analysis code. This fuel model was coupled with the RELAP5 plant model by adapting the fuel’s mesh configuration and formulating the effective heat transfer coefficients. A model to quantify the likelihood of clad functional failure as a combination of individual layer fractures at various axial positions was proposed. Updated SiC material properties were gathered from recent reference studies. Clad reliability estimates using the proposed model were compared with the estimates obtained using other models. The results were used to relax the criterion of required actuation timing of ECCS, such that the risk of the new plant design is less or equal to that of the initial plant configuration. Triplex clad was more reliable than duplex clad and Zr, reducing the conditional core damage probability by three orders of magnitude in the reference LBLOCA scenario. Compressive stresses due to irradiation swelling played the determining role in the vulnerabilities of each clad design. The duplex clad was vulnerable to pressure-loading stresses while triplex clad was prone to fail due to thermal shocks experienced during the LOCA reflood phase. Additionally, it was concluded that the most vulnerable axial fuel rod location in the reference LBLOCA scenario was located at the highest axial power peaking location. A sensitivity study on the ECCS timing density was conducted. The results showed that ECCS actuation timing could be extended from the initial technical specification, without increasing the fuel damage likelihood. The time extension was distributed in the order of several hundreds of seconds, which was comparable with time extensions offered by FeCrAl and Cr-coated-Zr clad designs in LBLOCA scenarios. This time extension may potentially reduce the failure probabilities of EDGs and pumps, hence improving the plant safety further.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Optimal Placement of Dynamic Var Sources by Using Empirical Controllability Covariance

In this paper, the empirical controllability covariance (ECC), which is calculated around the considered operating condition of a power system, is applied to quantify the degree of controllability of system voltages under specific dynamic var source locations. An optimal dynamic var source placement method addressing fault-induced delayed voltage recovery (FIDVR) issues is further formulated as an optimization problem that maximizes the determinant of ECC. The optimization problem is effectively solved by the NOMAD solver, which implements the mesh adaptive direct search algorithm. The proposed method is tested on an NPCC 140-bus system and the results show that the proposed method with fault specified ECC can solve the FIDVR issue caused by the most severe contingency with fewer dynamic var sources than the voltage sensitivity index (VSI)-based method. The proposed method with fault unspecified ECC does not depend on the settings of the contingency and can address more FIDVR issues than the VSI method when placing the same number of SVCs under different fault durations. It is also shown that the proposed method can help mitigate voltage collapse.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Sensitivity Analysis Tool for Electrochemical Conversion of CO 2 To CO: User Guide

This is the user guide for the tool described here: Development of technologies that convert carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into products is part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Conversion Program portfolio. One such technology under development converts CO 2 to value-added products via electrochemical reduction, where catalysts are used on the cathode to promote CO 2 conversion across the electrochemical catalyst (ECC) cell. Broadly, the ECC is integrated with balance of plant (BOP) equipment (e.g., compressors, pumps, heat exchangers, purification units) in system configurations to produce the desired product. To guide research and development (R&D) toward advancements that may make such conversion technologies economically competitive, researchers may use sensitivity analyses related to the ECC system cost and performance, including that of the cathodic and anodic catalysts. This tool is intended to inform developers and Program in assessing proposed R&D on ECC systems early in the development process. Results will guide researchers on where efforts would be best directed. The tool may be accessed here: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=55293cb1-6881-4181-a2b0-d00b711ce74b.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NLR HPC Eagle GPU Node Metrics

Ganglia node metrics and iLO (Integrated Lights Out) power data captured from six representative Eagle GPU nodes The Eagle HPC operated at NLR from 2019 through 2024. Eagle was a 2,000-node, 8-petaflop system. This dataset is a representative sample of metrics for 6 of the GPU nodes. Each GPU node contained 2 CPUs and 2 GPUs. Data provided in compressed CSV format. Ganglia and iLO Power Time Series Fields ts: Timestamp dv: Device / Node - Rack and Unit - r103u17 == r(ack)103u(nit)17 mt: Metric (only present for Ganglia) vl: Value - Value in watts for iLO power (instantaneous value at sampling time) or specified Ganglia metric below Ganglia Metrics Metric name -- Metric description -- Unit cpu_aidle -- Percent of time since boot idle CPU -- Percent cpu_idle -- Percent CPU idle -- Percent cpu_nice -- Percent CPU nice -- Percent cpu_speed -- Speed in MHz of CPU -- MHz cpu_user -- Percent CPU user -- Percent cpu_wio -- The percentage of CPU Wait I/O -- Percent gpu0_bar1_memory -- Used GPU bar1 memory -- MB gpu0_decoder_util -- GPU decoder utilization -- Percent gpu0_ecc_db_error -- Total ECC error counts for the GPU -- Number gpu0_encoder_util -- GPU encoder utilization -- Percent gpu0_fan -- Fan speed -- RPM gpu0_fb_memory -- Used GPU framebuffer memory -- MB gpu0_graphics_clock_report -- Current clock speeds for the device -- MHz gpu0_mem_total -- Memory total -- MB gpu0_mem_util -- Memory utilization -- Percent gpu0_power_usage_report -- Power usage report -- Watts gpu0_temp -- GPU 1 temperature -- Celsius gpu1_bar1_memory -- Used GPU bar1 memory -- MB gpu1_decoder_util -- GPU decoder utilization -- Percent gpu1_ecc_db_error -- Total ECC error counts for the GPU -- Number gpu1_encoder_util -- GPU encoder utilization -- Percent gpu1_fan -- Fan speed -- RPM gpu1_fb_memory -- Used GPU framebuffer memory -- MB gpu1_graphics_clock_report -- Current clock speeds for the GPU -- MHz gpu1_mem_total -- Memory total -- MB gpu1_mem_util -- Memory utilization -- MB gpu1_power_usage_report -- Power usage report -- Watts gpu1_temp -- GPU 1 temperature -- Celsius ipmi_cpu1_temp -- CPU 1 temperature -- Celsius ipmi_cpu2_temp -- CPU 2 temperature -- Celsius ipmi_inlet_ambient_temp -- Temperature measured at intake -- Celsius ipmi_vr_p1_temp -- CPU 1 voltage regulator temperature -- Celsius ipmi_vr_p2_temp -- CPU 2 voltage regulator temperature -- Celsius mem_buffers -- Amount of buffered memory -- Bytes mem_cached -- Amount of cached memory -- Bytes mem_free -- Amount of available memory -- Bytes mem_shared -- Amount of shared memory -- Bytes mem_total -- Amount of available memory -- Bytes

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Electrochemical concentration cell ozonesonde accuracy and precision

This paper is concerned with the results of a study designed to evaluate experimentally the accuracy and precision of electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozonesondes as prepared and flown by NASA, as a function of altitude. A combination of dual-instrument soundings and laboratory work using an environmental chamber was employed in the study. The ECC ozonesonde is a small, balloon-borne sensor developed for obtaining vertical profiles of atmospheric ozone. Attention is given to the design of the employed environmental chamber, ozone and temperature profiles used in simulated ozonesonde soundings, absolute and relative ECC ozonesonde precision estimates determined with the environmental chamber and from dual-instrument balloon soundings, and the ECC ozonesonde accuracy.

Barnes, R. A.↗

A New Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction Scheme for Seasonal Precipitation

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada This paper describes the fundamental theory of the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) algorithm for the seasonal climate forecasting. The algorithm is a statistical regression sch eme based on maximal correlation between the predictor and predictand. The prediction error is estimated by a spectral method using the basis of empirical orthogonal functions. The ECC algorithm treats the predictors and predictands as continuous fields and is an improvement from the traditional canonical correlation prediction. The improvements include the use of area-factor, estimation of prediction error, and the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The ECC is applied to the seasonal forecasting over various parts of the world. The example presented here is for the North America precipitation. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST) from different ocean basins. The Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST (1951-1999) is used as the predictor's historical data. The optimally interpolated global monthly precipitation is used as the predictand?s historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the ECC algorithm renders very high skill and the optimal ensemble is very important to the high value.

Kim, Kyu-Myong↗

An Automated Method for Ozonesonde Calibration: New Insights

An automated method for preparation of the electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozonesonde is presented. Development of a computer-controlled system for preparation and calibration of the ECC is an improvement over the manual preparation method, and reduces subjectivity considerably. Preparation measurements in digital form aids analysis of the ECC before release and enhances post-flight data certification. Calibration of ozonesondes over a range of ozone concentrations between 0 mPA and 30 mPA is discussed. This presentation describes the automatic system, gives examples of calibrations. The automated system enables comparison of varying potassium iodide (KI) concentrations that should allow adjustment of earlier ozonesonde data obtained with different KT concentrations used since 1970, i.e., 2, 1.5, 1, and 0.5 percent. Preliminary results indicate ECC accuracy has a strong dependence on the electrolyte concentration and should not be considered linear with altitude.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗

Development of Separate Sensible and Latent Cooling System Using Electrochemical Compressor

Separate sensible and latent cooling systems offer superior energy efficiency performance compared to conventional vapor compression air conditioning systems. In this paper we describe an innovative non-vapor compression system that uses electrochemical compressor (ECC) to pump hydrogen between 2-metal hydride reservoirs to provide the sensible cooling effect. The heat rejected during this process is used to regenerate the ionic liquid (IL) used for desiccant dehumidification. The overall system design is illustrated. The Xergy version 4C electrochemical compressor, while not designed as a high pressure system, develops in excess of 2 MPa (300 psia) and pressure ratios > 30. The projected base efficiency improvement of the electrochemical compressor is expected to be ~ 20% with higher efficiency when in low capacity mode due to being throttleable to lower capacity with improved efficiency. The IL was tailored to maximize the absorption/desorption rate of water vapor at moderate regeneration temperature. This IL, namely, [EMIm].OAc, is a hydrophilic IL with a working concentration range of 28.98% when operating between 25 75 C. The ECC metal hydride system is expected to show superior performance to typical vapor compression systems. As such, the combined efficiency gains from the use of ECC and separate and sensible cooling would offer significant potential savings to existing vapor compression cooling technology. A high efficiency Window Air Conditioner system is described based on this novel configuration. The system s schematic is provided. Models compared well with actual operating data obtained by running the prototype system. Finally, a model of an LiCl desiccant system in conjunction with the ECC-based metal hydride heat exchangers is provided.

Electrochemical Compression↗

Derivation of crack bridging stresses in engineered cementitious composites under combined opening and shear displacements

The mechanical behavior of Engineered Cementitious Composites (ECC) is strongly dependent on the bridging of cracks by fibers. Due to the bridging action of fibers, tensile and shear stresses can be transferred through cracks in ECC members. In this study, a micromechanics based theoretical model is proposed to describe the shear transfer mechanism on the crack surface due to fiber bridging effect. The model focuses on flexible fibers and both the normal stress along the crack opening direction and the shear stress transferred across the crack surfaces are derived under the coupled effect of crack opening displacement (COD) and shear sliding. With the proposed model, the mechanism of fibers contributing to the shear transfer can be understood and the effect of various micromechanical parameters can be investigated. The simulation results can provide insight on the behavior of ECC under shear loading when cracks are propagating under mixed mode.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Monitoring micro-crack healing in an engineered cementitious composite using the environmental scanning electron microscope

Environmental Scanning Electron Microscopy (ESEM) is used to study the origin of micro-crack healing in an Engineered Cementitious Composite (ECC). ESEM images were acquired from ECC specimens cut from pre-cracked, dog-bone samples which then subjected to submerged curing followed by exposure to the natural environment. The mineralogical and chemical compositions of the healing products were determined using the EDX facility in the ESEM. It is shown that the precipitation of calcium carbonate is the main contributor to micro-crack healing at the crack mouth. The healing products initially appeared in an angular rhombohedral morphology which then underwent a discernable transformation in size, shape and surface texture, from relatively flat and smooth to irregular and rough, resembling the texture of the original surface areas surrounding the micro-cracks. It is also shown that exposure to the natural environment, involving intermittent wetting/drying cycles, promotes additional crystal growth, which indicates enhanced self-healing capability in this environment. - Highlights: •ESEM with EDX used to characterize the origin of micro-crack healing in an ECC •Evolution of healing precipitates studied at three specific locations over four weeks •Specimens exposed to laboratory environment, followed by the natural environment •Calcium carbonate is the main contributor to crack healing at the crack mouth. •Outdoor exposure involving intermittent rain promotes additional crystal growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic PRA-Based Estimation of PWR Coping Time Using a Surrogate Model for Accident Tolerant Fuel

In this study, we propose an interpolation-based response surface surrogate methodology to manage a large number of scenarios in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It adopts the shape Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to cluster the interpolation neighborhood from time series sample data. The interpolation method was adapted from Taylor Kriging to allow a reduced-order model of the Taylor series. In order to demonstrate its applicability to complex issues in risk assessment for nuclear engineering, an example risk response surface to estimate emergency core cooling system (ECCS) criteria for triplex silicon carbide (SiC) accident-tolerant fuel was constructed. The response surface was exploited to estimate the cumulative failure probability of the fuel cladding structure due to the uncertainties in operator actions and safety systems. The functional failures were assessed based on a combination of individual layer failures computed by coupling Risk Analysis Virtual Environment software with a pressurized water reactor 1000-MW(electric) RELAP5 model and the in-house fuel performance assessment module. Results showed that SiC cladding failure probability spiked less than 1 min after a large-break loss-of- coolant accident whenever the current ECCS criteria for Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) cladding was used. However, it still provides an increased safety margin of three orders of magnitude compared to Zr-4. This positive margin could be utilized to relax active ECCS requirements by allowing deviations of up to 450 s in its actuation time. The proposed surrogate methodology generated a response surface of SiC cladding failure probability reasonably well, with a significant savings of computation time. This methodology is expected to be useful in the analysis of system response with complex uncertainty sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Spin-Transfer-Torque Oscillator with an Antiferromagnetic Exchange-Coupled Composite Free Layer

We present an antiferromagnetically exchange-coupled composite (soft and hard layers) spin torque oscillator (AF-ECC STO) and demonstrate its operation via both analytical and micromagnetic modeling. The operation exploits the exchange field due to the antiferromagnetic coupling between soft and hard sublayers of the free layer as well as on the easy-plane anisotropy of the soft sublayer. Optimized AF-ECC STO structures can generate large-amplitude magnetization oscillations, which can be tuned over a broad frequency range with precessions mostly generated by the soft layer. We demonstrate that the AF-ECC STO structure offers flexibility in current control of the oscillation frequency and magnetization angle for realistic material parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of Joint Cyber/Safety Risk in Nuclear Power Systems

This report presents an analysis of the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) for a generic Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)-4 NPP. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed Hazards and Consequences Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS) process is applied to the ECCS and its subsystems to identify unsafe control actions (UCAs) which act as possible cyber events of concern. The analysis is performed for two design basis events: Small-break Loss of Coolant Accident (SLOCA) and general transients (TRANS), such as unintended reactor trip. In previous work, HAZCADS UCAs were combined with other cyber-attack analysis to develop a risk-informed approach; however, this was for a single system. This report explores advanced systems engineering modeling approaches to model the interactions between digital assets across multiple systems which may be targeted by cyber adversaries. The complex and interdependent design of digital systems has the potential to introduce emergent cyber properties that are generally not covered by hazard analyses nor formal nuclear Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The R&D and supporting analysis presented here explores approaches to predict and manage how interdependent system properties effect risk. To show the potential impact of a successful cyber-attack to formal PRA event tree probabilities, HAZCADS analysis was also used. HAZCADS was also used to model the automatic depressurization system (ADS) automatic actuation. This analysis extended to an integrated system analysis for common-cause failure (CCF). In this aspect, the HAZCADS analysis continued by analyzing plant design details for system connectivity in support of critical plant functions. A dependency matrix was developed to depict the integrated functionality of the interconnected systems. Areas of potential CCF are indicated. Future work could include adversary attack development to show how CCF could be caused, resulting in PRA events. Across the multiple systems that comprise the ECCS, the analysis shows that the change in such probabilities was very different between systems. This indicates that some systems have a larger potential risk impact from successful cyber-attack or digital failure, which indicates a need for these systems to have a higher priority for design and defensive measures. Furthermore, we were able to establish that a risk analysis using any arbitrary threat model establishes an ordering of components with regard to cyber-risk. This ordering can be used to influence the overall system design with an eye to lowering risk, or as a way to understand real-time risk to operational systems based on a current threat landscape. Expert knowledge of both the analysis process and the system being analyzed is required to perform a HAZCADS analysis. The need for a tiered risk analysis is demonstrated by the results of this report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Performance evaluation of electrochemical concentration cell ozonesondes

Laboratory calibrations of more than a hundred electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozonesondes were determined relative to UV-photometry. The average intercept and slope, 0 plus or minus 5 nb and 0.96 plus or minus 0.06, respectively, indicate reasonable agreement with UV photometry, but with considerable variation from one ECC ozonesonde to another. The time required to reach 85% of the final reaction to a step-change in ozone concentration was found to average 51 seconds. Application of the individual calibrations to 20 sets of 1976 flight data reduced the average of the differences between ozonesonde and Dobson spectrophotometric measurements of total ozone from 3.9 to 1.3%. A similar treatment of a set of 10 1977 flight records improved the average ECC-Dobson agreement from -8.5 to -1.4%. Although systematic differences were reduced, no significant effect on the random variations was evident.

Torres, A. L.↗

Total ozone, ozone vertical distributions, and stratospheric temperatures at South Pole, Antarctica, in 1986 and 1987

Seventy-six electrochemical cell (ECC) ozonesondes were flown at South Pole, Antarctica, during 1987 in a continuing program to document year-round changes in Antarctica ozone that are dynamically and photochemically induced. Dobson spectrophotometer total ozone observations were also made. For the twilight months of March and September when Dobson instrument observations cannot be made at South Pole, total ozone amounts were deduced from the ECC ozonesonde soundings. ECC sonde total ozone data obtained during the polar night (April to August), supplemented the sparse total ozone data obtained from Dobson instrument moon observations. Similar ozone profile and total ozone observations were made at South Pole in 1986.

Komhyr, W. D.↗

Importance of eccentric actions in performance adaptations to resistance training

The importance of eccentric (ecc) muscle actions in resistance training for the maintenance of muscle strength and mass in hypogravity was investigated in experiments in which human subjects, divided into three groups, were asked to perform four-five sets of 6 to 12 repetitions (rep) per set of three leg press and leg extension exercises, 2 days each weeks for 19 weeks. One group, labeled 'con', performed each rep with only concentric (con) actions, while group con/ecc with performed each rep with only ecc actions; the third group, con/con, performed twice as many sets with only con actions. Control subjects did not train. It was found that resistance training wih both con and ecc actions induced greater increases in muscle strength than did training with only con actions.

Dudley, Gary A.↗

Influence of eccentric actions on the metabolic cost of resistance exercise

The contributions of concentric (con) and eccentric (ecc) muscle actions are evaluated with respect to increasing the metabolic cost of resistance exercise. Male subjects perform leg exercise with either con and ecc actions or only con actions while the net energy cost of the exercise is measured by oxygen consumption data. In both groups, the con actions require 290 J/kg body weight of total work, with an energy cost of 0.003 cal/J. The energy costs for the con/ecc actions of the second group is increased by 14 percent. The metabolic cost of leg exercise is concluded to be primarily generated by the con leg actions, and ecc leg actions increase the resistance with only a slight increase in required energy. The findings are significant for practical applications that emphasize the conservation of energy expenditure during exercise in spacecraft environments.

Dudley, Gary A.↗