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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Implications of a two-fluid heat diffusion model for RF condensation effects in magnetic islands

Theoretical calculations have predicted an “RF condensation” effect through which the temperature perturbation and current drive may be nonlinearly enhanced in electron cyclotron (EC) heated magnetic islands. Previously, two-fluid effects had been neglected in the OCCAMI code used to model RF condensation. For realistic experimental conditions, we show that two-fluid effects in an EC heated plasma may have a major impact on RF condensation. Less collisional plasmas, where electron and ion temperatures are decoupled, exhibit an enhanced linear temperature perturbation in the island, and an even stronger nonlinear enhancement of the perturbed temperature. This can occur even when nonlinear effects are small in the single-fluid limit. We also calculate corresponding hysteresis effects. Finally, we demonstrate that other physical effects, including the rotation of the magnetic island and the Gaussian spread of the beam from a gyrotron, can significantly decrease the predicted observable RF condensation effect.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Circumventing thermodynamic limitations in converting carbon dioxide into carbon nanotubes via tandem catalysis

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) are important materials for electronics and structural composites, but their production still relies on hydrocarbon-based chemical vapor deposition, an energy-intensive and fossil-dependent process, limited by rapid catalyst deactivation. Using CO2 as a carbon feedstock offers a sustainable route for CNT synthesis, yet direct CO2 conversion to CNTs is thermodynamically unfavorable and existing CO2-to-carbon pathways mainly yield amorphous or weakly graphitized solids. Here, we demonstrate a tandem electrochemical–thermochemical (EC-TC) strategy that overcomes these limitations. CO2 is first electrochemically reduced to a tunable mixture of C2H4 and CO, which is directly fed into a thermochemical reactor and converted into CNTs with controllable morphology and high CNT-to-metal mass ratios (~200) over NiFe catalysts at 750 °C. In situ synchrotron-based characterization and density functional theory calculations reveal that CO dissociation and C2H4 decomposition on NiFe alloys cooperatively promote CNT nucleation and sustained growth. This EC-TC strategy establishes a modular route for converting CO2 into value-added carbon nanomaterials.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of recent results from the ST40 compact high-field spherical tokamak

ST40 is a compact, high-field ($B_{\mathrm{T0}}\unicode{x2A7D} 2.1\,\,\,\textrm{T}$) spherical tokamak (ST) with a mission to expand the physics and technology basis for the ST route to commercial fusion. The ST40 research programme covers confinement and stability; solenoid-free start-up; high-performance operating scenarios; and plasma exhaust. In 2022, ST40 obtained central deuterium ion temperatures of $9.6 \pm 0.4\ \textrm{keV}$, demonstrating for the first time that pilot plant relevant ion temperatures can be reached in a compact, high-field ST. Analysis of these high-ion temperature plasmas is presented, including a summary of confinement, transport and microstability characteristics, and energetic particle instabilities. Recent scenario development activities have focused on establishing diverted H-mode plasmas across a range of toroidal fields and plasma currents, along with scenarios with high non-inductive current fractions. In future operations, beginning in 2025, a 1 MW dual frequency (104/137 GHz) electron cyclotron (EC) system will be installed to enable the study of EC and electron Bernstein wave plasma start-up and current drive. Predictive modelling of the potential performance of these systems is presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Auxiliary heating and current drive physics for the ST-E1 fusion power plant

This work describes the physics basis for the proposed auxiliary heating and current drive system on the ST-E1 fusion power plant. The ST-E1 flattop plasma considered here is fully non-inductive with a bootstrap fraction of 0.9 and the remaining current driven by EC waves. Using the recently published physics-based optimization method for EC launchers (Lopez et al 2025 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 055012), we show that the target flattop ECCD can be achieved with a net efficiency of 52 kA MW −1 using fundamental O-mode (O1) with frequency range 160–200 GHz launched from the low-field side top half of the vacuum vessel (LFS top-launch). From considering two candidate rampup scenarios, we conclude that LFS top-launch O1 ECCD can be equally effective during the early stages of plasma operation, although poloidal steering might be needed. X-mode waves injected from the LFS midplane are also shown to be effective for rampup even when T e < 1 keV. We also present modeling results for the pre-conceptual design of an ICRH system proposed for ST-E1. Using TORIC, we find that an ICRH system aiming for 42–48 MHz and toroidal mode number n φ ~ 10 robustly achieves dominant ion damping via Helium-3 minority heating transitioning to second-harmonic Tritium heating. We then show that such waves can be efficiently generated by a 5-strap traveling-wave antenna (TWA) using the Petra-M code. The TWA has a 40–45 MHz passband within which ~60% of the power entering the TWA is coupled to the plasma with the remaining ~40% of the power being transmitted through the TWA and possibly recirculated; the power reflected back into the transmission lines is negligible. This passband structure persists even when the evanescent distance is increased by a factor of two, or when the magnetic-field angle is increased by 30°, demonstrating inherent load resilience that will be crucial for effective ICRH on ST-E1.

electron cyclotron↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations and modeling reveal that heatwaves reduce photosynthesis, plant carbon reserves, and net carbon uptake

Heatwaves threaten ecosystem carbon balances, yet the mechanisms driving short-term carbon flux responses remain poorly understood. Here, integrating high-frequency eddy covariance (EC) data from 140 global flux tower sites (872 site-years) with detailed process-based modeling, we examine ecosystem responses during and immediately after heatwaves. We show that heatwaves caused a −40% (range [−29%, −128%]) reduction in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) compared to pre-heatwave values, with this reduction persisting over the following two weeks (−38% range [+3%, −154%]). We attributed NEP decreases to photosynthesis decreases more than to ecosystem respiration (RE) increases. Forest sites had greater NEP decreases during heatwaves than non-forest sites, but remained carbon sinks afterwards, indicating resilience. Our modeling analysis of extreme heatwaves at selected EC sites shows that decreased photosynthesis, increased maintenance respiration, and decreased plant non-structural carbon reserves during heatwaves drive carbon cycle changes that persist for weeks. Consistent with phenocam observations, we modeled a reduction in leaf area index caused by reduced non-structural carbon reserves, leading to early leaf senescence and longer-term impacts. Ongoing increases in heatwaves are therefore likely to reduce NEP across a range of ecosystems, exacerbating carbon cycle feedback.

carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interlayer Exciton Condensates between Second Landau Level Orbitals in Double Bilayer Graphene

Here, we present Coulomb-drag measurements on a heterostructure comprising two Bernal-stacked bilayer graphene (BLG) sheets separated by a 2.5 nm hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) spacer in the quantum Hall (QH) regime. Using top and bottom gate control, together with an interlayer bias, we independently tune the two BLG layers into either the lowest (N = 0) or second (N = 1) Landau level (LL) orbital and probe their interlayer QH states. When both layers occupy the N = 0 orbital, we observe both interlayer exciton condensates (ECs) at integer total filling and interlayer fractional QH states, echoing the results in double monolayer graphene. In contrast to previous studies, however, when both BLG layers occupy the N = 1 orbital, we also observe quantized drag signals, signifying an interlayer exciton condensate formed between the second LLs. By tuning the layer degree of freedom, we find that this N = 1 EC state arises only when the N = 1 wave function in each BLG is polarized toward the hBN interface to maximize the interlayer Coulomb interaction.

Electrical conductivity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward scalable bound-to-resonance extrapolations for few- and many-body systems

In open quantum many-body systems, the theoretical description of resonant states of many particles strongly coupled to the continuum can be challenging. Such states are commonplace in, for example, exotic nuclei and hadrons, and can reveal important information about the underlying forces at play in these systems. In this work, we demonstrate that the complex-augmented eigenvector continuation (CA-EC) method, originally formulated for the two-body problem with uniform complex scaling, can reliably perform bound-to-resonance extrapolations for genuine three-body resonances having no bound subsystems. Here, we first establish that three-body bound-to-resonance extrapolations are possible by benchmarking different few-body approaches, and we provide arguments to explain how the extrapolation works in the many-body case. We furthermore pave the way towards scalable resonance extrapolations in many-body systems by showing that the CA-EC method also works in the Berggren basis, studying a realistic application using the Gamow shell model.

Ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural-Network-Enhanced COTSIM: Advancing Predictive Capabilities for Fast DIII-D Simulations

Sustaining fusion reactions in tokamaks requires heating plasma to thermonuclear temperatures while maintaining confinement and stability. Neutral beam injection (NBI) provides heating, current drive, torque, and fueling, while electron cyclotron (EC) waves are widely used for heating and current drive; together, these actuators shape the plasma current, temperature, and density profiles. The control-oriented tokamak simulator (COTSIM), a predictive, control-oriented code, has been enhanced with neural-network surrogates for transport and sources. Turbulent transport is predicted by MMMnet—a neural-network version of the updated multimode model (MMM 9.0.10)—with significantly reduced computation time relative to MMM; neoclassical transport follows the Chang–Hinton model. NUBEAMnet, a surrogate of the Monte Carlo NUBEAM module, predicts beam-driven heating, current, and torque. EC heating and current drive use a control-oriented, empirically scaled source model; plasma resistivity follows the Spitzer formulation; bootstrap current uses the Sauter model. Equilibrium is computed using both prescribed and fixed-boundary solvers (FBSs), and the pedestal structure is modeled with an empirical pedestal model. For a representative DIII-D discharge, COTSIM predicts electron and ion temperature and safety-factor profiles in close agreement with TRANSP predictive and interpretive simulations while extending predictions through the pedestal region to the plasma edge (versus 80% of the minor radius in TRANSP). Furthermore, the equivalent COTSIM simulation runs in under 3 min compared to about 2 h for TRANSP, enabling rapid scenario planning, optimization of tokamak operation, and between-pulse control design.

Control-oriented tokamak simulator (COTSIM)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methane fluxes in tidal marshes of the conterminous United States

Abstract Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) with atmospheric concentrations that have nearly tripled since pre‐industrial times. Wetlands account for a large share of global CH 4 emissions, yet the magnitude and factors controlling CH 4 fluxes in tidal wetlands remain uncertain. We synthesized CH 4 flux data from 100 chamber and 9 eddy covariance (EC) sites across tidal marshes in the conterminous United States to assess controlling factors and improve predictions of CH 4 emissions. This effort included creating an open‐source database of chamber‐based GHG fluxes ( https://doi.org/10.25573/serc.14227085 ). Annual fluxes across chamber and EC sites averaged 26 ± 53 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 , with a median of 3.9 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 , and only 25% of sites exceeding 18 g CH 4 m −2 year −1 . The highest fluxes were observed at fresh‐oligohaline sites with daily maximum temperature normals (MATmax) above 25.6°C. These were followed by frequently inundated low and mid‐fresh‐oligohaline marshes with MATmax ≤25.6°C, and mesohaline sites with MATmax >19°C. Quantile regressions of paired chamber CH 4 flux and porewater biogeochemistry revealed that the 90th percentile of fluxes fell below 5 ± 3 nmol m −2 s −1 at sulfate concentrations >4.7 ± 0.6 mM, porewater salinity >21 ± 2 psu, or surface water salinity >15 ± 3 psu. Across sites, salinity was the dominant predictor of annual CH 4 fluxes, while within sites, temperature, gross primary productivity (GPP), and tidal height controlled variability at diel and seasonal scales. At the diel scale, GPP preceded temperature in importance for predicting CH 4 flux changes, while the opposite was observed at the seasonal scale. Water levels influenced the timing and pathway of diel CH 4 fluxes, with pulsed releases of stored CH 4 at low to rising tide. This study provides data and methods to improve tidal marsh CH 4 emission estimates, support blue carbon assessments, and refine national and global GHG inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Decadal Dynamics of Wetland Methane Emissions Revealed by Knowledge‐Guided Machine Learning

Measurement of methane fluxes (FCH 4 ) from natural systems, such as wetlands, has lagged far behind carbon dioxide fluxes. Short and fragmented wetland FCH 4 data limit our ability to assess its long-term dynamics and potential climate feedbacks. Extrapolating short-term FCH 4 records to recent decades remains challenging for both process-based models and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches. Here, we develop a knowledge-guided ML framework that integrates eddy covariance (EC) FCH 4 observations, field warming experiments, and biogeochemical knowledge to reconstruct the long-term FCH 4 budgets and trends. Focusing on the 11 longest EC monitoring sites in the AmeriFlux network, we found considerable variability in multi-decadal trends of wetland FCH 4 , with increases up to 14% per decade from 2000 to 2024. We also found that the strength of these increasing trends declines from high to low latitudes, highlighting the vulnerability of northern wetlands. This work presents novel and robust reconstructions of long-term wetland FCH 4 , offering critical benchmark datasets for bottom-up ecosystem models and advancing fundamental understanding of wetland biogeochemistry.

AmeriFlux site↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrolyte Design for NMC811||SiO x -Gr Lithium-Ion Batteries with Excellent Low-Temperature and High-Rate Performance

The use of high-nickel NMC811 cathode and SiO x -Gr anode can greatly improve the overall energy densities of lithium-ion batteries. However, the unfavorable solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer generated from the decomposition of EC-based electrolytes lead to the poor cycling stability of NMC811||SiO x -Gr cells. Here we report an electrolyte design of 1.5 M LiPF 6 dissolved in FEC/MA/BN 2:2:6 by volume, which can form thin, robust, and homogeneous SEI layer to greatly improve the charge transfer at the electrode-electrolyte interface. Importantly, the designed electrolyte shows an outstanding low temperature performance that it can deliver a capacity of 123.3 mAh g –1 after 50 cycles at −20 °C with a current density of 0.5 C, overwhelming the standard EC-based electrolyte (1.2 M LiPF 6 EC/EMC 3:7 by volume) with a capacity of 35.7 mAh g –1 . The electrolyte also has a superior rate performance that it achieves a capacity of 122.5 mAh g −1 at a high current density of 10 C. Moreover, the LTE electrolyte holds the great potential of extreme fast-charging ability because of the large part of CC contribution in the CCCV charging model at high charging current densities.

Electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Communication—First-Principles Simulations of LiPF 6 Decomposition in Ethylene Carbonate-Based Electrolytes

We revisit a theoretical result by Okamoto (2013 Journal of The Electrochemical Society , 160 , A404) who calculated the energy barrier for the decomposition of lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF 6 ) into LiF + PF 5 when solvated in Ethylene carbonate (EC)-based electrolyte. Using different numerical techniques to discretize the Density Functional Theory (DFT) equations, and different continuum solvation models with the same dielectric constant, our results largely confirm the original calculation. However, simulations with a higher dielectric permittivity value, closer to that of EC, show a lower energy barrier. More importantly, First-Principles simulations with an explicit solvent show a substantially lower energy barrier.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Electrolyte Solvent on Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 /LiNi 0.90 Mn 0.05 Co 0.05 O 2 Battery Performance for Behind-the-Meter Storage Applications

Behind-the-Meter Storage (BTMS) systems require dedicated development of battery materials that target long cycle life and low cost at the system level. Pairing Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 (LTO) and LiNi 0.9 Mn 0.05 Co 0.05 O 2 (NMC90-5-5) shows promise to achieve targets for BTMS applications; however, minimal literature is available that discusses electrolyte solvent selection for this pairing. This study explores the role of electrolyte solvent on cycle life in LTO/NMC90-5-5 batteries. Four model electrolytes are evaluated; the baseline, Gen2, is compared with 1M LiPF 6 added to each of three separate solvents: ethylene carbonate (EC), ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC), and fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC). An additional consideration is that NMC90-5-5 undergoes an H2→H3 phase transition that allows for a significant increase to capacity; however, it’s unclear how this phase transition impacts electrolyte stability and cycle life. Therefore, the phase transition is avoided or accessed by cycling to 2.6V or 2.7V, respectively. The cells with Gen2, cycled to 2.6V, show the highest capacity retention due to EC passivating the LTO, EMC improving stability at the NMC90-5-5, and avoiding increased degradation from the 2.7V protocol. Despite having high initial reactivity that causes Li-depletion, FEC was the only solvent to avoid increased degradation when moving to the higher termination voltage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrolyte and Cutoff Potential Effects on Cycle Life of Li4Ti5O12/LiNi0.9Mn0.1O2 Batteries for Behind-the-Meter Storage Applications

Behind-the-Meter Storage (BTMS) is a stationary battery energy storage system that is connected to the electrical distribution system on the customer's side of the utility's service meter. BTMS systems are used to store electrical energy from the grid as well as inconstant, renewable energy, such as local solar and wind generation. A successful BTMS system will allow the customer to pair their energy generation and storage to optimize electrical consumption from the grid, improving reliability and minimizing cost. For BTMS applications, batteries must be designed and optimized with different set of criteria from other leading segments of the Li-ion battery market, like transportation, due the system being stationary and proximal to the residential or commercial building it's benefitting. BTMS applications prioritize safety, cost (low/no-critical materials), reliability (20-year calendar life), and durability (10,000 cycle life), while having the ability to (minimally) compromise energy density and rate capability. Lithium titanate (Li4Ti5O12-, LTO) is a promising anode candidate for BTMS applications due to its high safety and capacity retention, while maintaining a reasonable 160 mAhg-1 reversable capacity and composition of relatively abundant materials. (1) Specifically, LTO has a high working voltage which helps to prevent Li dendrite formation, improving safety. Furthermore, LTO also has negligible lithiation-based volume change, leading to less mechanical pulverization, or loss of active material, upon cycling. For the cathode, materials with little or no Co are of high interest due to the high cost and low abundance of Co. LiMn2O4 (LMO) has been paired with LTO for BTMS applications in the past due to its safety, low cost (abundancy), and reasonably high operating voltage. (2-4) However, the low capacity of LMO limits energy density and specific energy. While not the highest priority for BTMS applications, increasing energy density will enable deployment in space constrained BTMS applications and decrease total cost. LiNi0.9Mn0.1O2 (LN-MO) is a recently developed material with promise due to its high operating voltage and relatively low price. (5) However, Ni-rich layered oxides, including LNMO, tend to struggle with capacity retention during high-voltage cycling due to mechanical pulverization, irreversible phase transitions, and unstable solid-electrolyte interphase. The study presented here focuses on building an understanding of how electrolyte solvent and varied cutoff potentials will impact the cycle life of LTO/LN-MO cells. Specifically, a comparison is provided between ethylene carbonate (EC), ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC), fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC), and Gen2 electrolyte solvents with 1M Lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) salt, cycling to two upper termination potentials, 2.6V and 2.7V. Electrochemical testing and diagnostics (e.g., differential capacity analysis, area specific impedance, constant voltage hold, and rate capability) and post-mortem characterization will be used to understand the aging behavior and failure mechanisms of the 8 cell combinations (four electrolytes and two voltage cutoffs). Cells with FEC electrolyte showed a lower initial capacity compared to cells with Gen2, EMC, and EC cycling at both voltages; however, the cells with FEC showed consistent trends in capacity retention with 2.6V and 2.7V termination potentials, while the cells with the other electrolytes showed much higher rates of capacity loss when cycling to the higher voltage. These results indicate that FEC may play a role in improving durability of high-voltage, Ni-rich electrode systems for use in high-cycle applications, such as BTMS.

electrolyte↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Diurnal and Annual Ethylene Generation from Solar-Driven Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction Devices

Integrated solar fuels devices for CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) are a promising technology class towards achieving net-negative carbon emissions. Designing integrated CO 2 R solar fuels devices requires careful co-design of electrochemical and photovoltaic components as well as consideration of the diurnal and seasonal effects of solar irradiance, temperature, and other meteorological factors expected for ‘on-sun’ deployment. Here, using a photovoltaic-electrochemical (PV-EC) platform, we developed a temperature and potential-dependent diurnal and annual model using experimental CO 2 R performance of Cu-based electrocatalysts, local meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRD), and modeled performance of commercial c-Si PVs. We simulated diurnal product outputs with and without the effects of ambient temperature to determine gaseous product temperature sensitivity. From these outputs, we observed seasonal variation in gaseous product generation, with up to two-fold increases in ethylene productivity between the Winter and Summer, analyzed the consequences of dynamic cloud coverage, and identified periods where device cooling/heating mechanisms could be implemented to maximize ethylene generation. Finally, we modeled the annual ethylene generation for a scaled 1 MW solar farm at three different locations (Beijing, CN; Sydney, AUS; Barstow, CA) to determine the consequences of local meteorological climates on PV-EC CO 2 R product output, recording a maximum ethylene output of 18.5 tonne/yr at Barstow. Overall, this model presents a critical tool for streamlining the translation of experimental solar-driven electrochemical research to real-world implementation.

Yap, Kyra M. K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating CO 2 fluxes through integrating spatial and temporal input layers via deep learning algorithms

Background Accurate estimation of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 fluxes (Fc) is essential for understanding carbon cycle processes and assessing ecosystem carbon budgets. However, conventional modeling approaches often emphasize temporal dynamics while overlooking the pronounced spatial heterogeneity within the footprint of eddy covariance (EC) towers, potentially limiting predictive accuracy and interpretability of Fc estimates. To address this challenge, we developed a spatiotemporal model that integrates high-resolution footprint-weighted spatial information with sequential environmental drivers. Results The integrated model combines a deeper graph convolutional network to characterize fine-scale spatial variability within EC footprints and a gated recurrent unit network to capture temporal dependencies in biophysical conditions. Using multi-year flux tower observations, remote sensing vegetation indices and footprint modeling, we evaluate the proposed method across three land cover types. This spatiotemporal model consistently outperforms temporal-only and spatial-only baselines, achieving the highest overall accuracy (R 2 = 0.9569) and the lowest RMSE (1.8128 μmol m −2 s −1 ) and MAE (1.1939 μmol m −2 s −1 ). Performance gains are particularly evident in ecosystems with strong vegetation heterogeneity, where spatial structure substantially modulates Fc variability. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of joint modeling spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics for improving Fc estimation and provides a robust method for advancing footprint-based Fc estimates across diverse ecosystems, supporting refined assessments of terrestrial carbon fluxes, and enhancing scientific foundations for carbon studies.

CO2 flux estimate↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗