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At least 91 records · Page 5

Physical Control of Biological Productivity Off the Coast of Peru During the 1997-1998 El Nino

Satellite observations and an ecosystem model are used to understand the variability in the planktonic ecosystem off Peru for the period January 1996 to May 1998. The objective of this study is to quantify the changes in the ecosystem components, carbon pathways, and available food for small pelagic fish that occur associated with the change in physical forcing due to El Nino. Two periods are distinguished based on the observed sea level anomaly: a La Nina (LaN) period (1996) in which sea level was below normal and El Nino (EN), the average conditions for December 1997, in which the sea level was anomalously high. There are three phytoplankton size classes (pico-, nano-, and net-phytoplankton) which compete for nutrients and are eaten by three zooplankton size classes. The ecosystem model is forced by alongshore wind speed measured by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and the European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS-1 and ERS-2). Larger, slower growing organisms are more sensitive to physical disturbance than smaller organisms (Carr, 1998]. In the present simulation as well, the primary effect of the El Nino (reduced nutrient supply, and increased temperature) is to reduce the biomass of large cells (netphytoplankton) and consequently of the zooplankton that rely on large cells as food source. EN conditions are accompanied by a rearrangement of carbon pathways: comparable uptake goes into reduced biomass accumulation, increased losses to respiration, reduced carbon export, and much reduced carbon available to fish. The star indicates the remotely sensed biomass (assuming a constant carbon to chlorophyll ratio of 60) as measured by the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (Nov.-Dec. 1996) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (Dec. 1997). The model, which assumes no light limitation, overestimates total phytoplankton biomass. Additional Information is contained in the original.

Carr, Mary-Elena↗

Intercomparison of Model Simulations of the Impact of 1997/98 El Nino on South American Summer Monsoon

The simulations of climatology and response of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) to the 1997/98 El Nino are investigated using six atmospheric general circulation models. Results show all models simulate the large-scale features of the SASM reasonably well. However, both stationary and seasonal components of the surface pressure are overestimated, resulting in an excessively strong SASM in the model climatology. The low-level northwesterly jet over eastern foothills of the Andes is not well resolved because of the coarse resolution of the models. Large rainfall simulation biases are found in association with the Andes and the Atlantic ITCZ, indicating model problems in handling steep mountains and parameterization of convective processes. The simulation of the 1997/98 El Nino impact on SASM is examined based on an ensemble of ten two-year (September 1996 - August 1998) integration. Results show that most models can simulate the large-scale tropospheric warming response over the tropical central Pacific, including the dynamic response of Rossby wave propagation of the Pacific-South America (PSA) pattern that influences remote areas. Deficiencies are found in simulating the regional impacts over South America. Model simulation fails to capture the southeastward expansion of anomalously warm tropospheric air. As a result, the upper tropospheric anomalous high over the subtropical Andes is less pronounced, and the enhancement of subtropical westerly jet is displaced 5deg-10deg equatorward compared to the observed. Over the Amazon basin, the shift of Walker cell induced by El Nino is not well represented, showing anomalous easterlies in both upper and lower troposphere.

Zhou, Jiayu↗

Russian-US Partnership to Study the 23-km-diameter El'gygtgyn Impact Crater, Northeast Russia

El'gygytgyn crater, located within Eastern Siberia, is a Pliocene-aged (3.6 Ma), well-preserved impact crater with a rim diameter of roughly 23 km. The target rocks are a coherent assemblage of crystalline rocks ranging from andesite to basalt. At the time of impact the region was forested and the Arctic Ocean was nearly ice-free. A 15-km lake fills the center of the feature and water depths are approximately 175 m. Evidence of shock metamorphism, -- including coesite, fused mineral glasses, and planar deformation features in quartz -- has been reported. This feature is one of the youngest and best preserved complex craters on Earth. Because of its remote Arctic setting, however, El gygytgyn crater remains poorly investigated. The objectives of this three-year project are to establish and maintain a research partnership between scientists from Russia and the United States interested in the El gygytgyn crater. The principal institutions in the U.S. will be the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks and the University of Massachusetts Amherst. The principal institution in Russia will be the North East Interdisciplinary Scientific Research Institute (NEISRI), which is the Far-East Branch of the Russian Academy of Science. Three science tasks are identified for the exchange program: (1) Evaluate impactite samples collected during previous field excursions for evidence of and level of shock deformation. (2) Build a high-resolution digital elevation model for the crater and its surroundings using interferometric synthetic aperture radar techniques on JERS-1, ERS-1, ERS-2, and/or RadarSat range-doppler data. (3) Gather all existing surface data available from Russian and U.S. institutions (DEM, remote sensing image data, field-based lithological and sample maps, and existing geophysical data) and assemble into a Geographic Information Systems database.

Sharpton, Virgil L.↗

Satellite-Based Surface Heat Budgets and Sea Surface Temperature Tendency in the Tropical Eastern Indian and Western Pacific Oceans for the 1997/98 El Nino and 1998/99 La Nina

The 1997/98 is a strong El Nino warm event, while the 1998/99 is a moderate La Nina cold event. We have investigated surface heat budgets and sea surface temperature (SST) tendency for these two events in the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans using satellite-retrieved surface radiative and turbulent fluxes. The radiative fluxes are taken from the Goddard Satellite-retrieved Surface Radiation Budget (GSSRB), derived from radiance measurements of the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5. The GSSRB covers the domain 40 deg S - 4 deg N, 90 deg E-17 deg W and a period from October 1997 to December 2000. The spatial resolution is 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg lat-long and the temporal resolution is 1 day. The turbulent fluxes are taken from Version 2 of the Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF-2). The GSSTF-2 has a spatial resolution of 1 deg x 1 deg lat-long over global Oceans and a temporal resolution of 1 day covering the period July 1987-December 2000. Daily turbulent fluxes are derived from the S S M (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) surface wind and surface air humidity, and the SST and 2-m air temperature of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, using a stability-dependent bulk flux algorithm. The changes of surface heat budgets, SST and tendency, cloudiness, wind speed, and zonal wind stress of the 1997/98 El Nino relative to the1998/99 La Nina for the northern winter and spring seasons are analyzed. The relative changes of surface heat budgets and SST tendency of the two events are quite different between the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. For the tropical western Pacific, reduced solar heating (more clouds) is generally associated with decreased evaporative cooling (weaker winds), and vise versa. The changes in evaporative cooling over-compensate that of solar heating and dominate the spatial variability of the changes in net surface heating. Both solar heating and evaporative cooling offset each other to reduce interannual variability of net surface heating. In addition, the area of increased SST tendency is larger than that of increased net surface heating, due to less solar radiation penetration through the bottom of deeper ocean mixed layer (stronger winds). For the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, enhanced solar heating (less clouds) is generally associated with reduced evaporative cooling (weaker winds). Both solar heating and evaporative cooling reinforce each other to increase interannual variability of net surface heating. In addition, the area of increased SST tendency is smaller than that of increased net surface heating in the southern domain. The relative changes in wind and zonal wind stress indicate more solar radiation penetration through the ocean mixed layer and more northward heat transport by Ocean current from the south to the north Indian Ocean for the El Nino than for the La Nina.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

The Impact of Ocean Data Assimilation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts: A Case Study of the 2006 El Nino Event

This study investigates the impact of four different ocean analyses on coupled forecasts of the 2006 El Nino event. Forecasts initialized in June 2006 using ocean analyses from an assimilation that uses flow-dependent background error covariances are compared with those using static error covariances that are not flow dependent. The flow-dependent error covariances reflect the error structures related to the background ENSO instability and are generated by the coupled breeding method. The ocean analyses used in this study result from the assimilation of temperature and salinity, with the salinity data available from Argo floats. Of the analyses, the one using information from the coupled bred vectors (BV) replicates the observed equatorial long wave propagation best and exhibits more warming features leading to the 2006 El Nino event. The forecasts initialized from the BV-based analysis agree best with the observations in terms of the growth of the warm anomaly through two warming phases. This better performance is related to the impact of the salinity analysis on the state evolution in the equatorial thermocline. The early warming is traced back to salinity differences in the upper ocean of the equatorial central Pacific, while the second warming, corresponding to the mature phase, is associated with the effect of the salinity assimilation on the depth of the thermocline in the western equatorial Pacific. The series of forecast experiments conducted here show that the structure of the salinity in the initial conditions is important to the forecasts of the extension of the warm pool and the evolution of the 2006 El Ni o event.

Yang, Shu-Chih↗

Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management

Water is in high demand for farmers regardless of where you go. Unfortunately, farmers in southern Florida have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. There is an interest by the agricultural community about the effect weather has on usable surface water, however, research into viable weather patterns during La Nina and El Nino has yet to be researched. Using rainfall accumulation data from NASA Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite, this project s purpose was to assess the influence of El Nino and La Nina Oscillations on sea breeze thunderstorm patterns, as well as general rainfall patterns during the summer season in South Florida. Through this research we were able to illustrate the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall accumulation for each oscillation in relation to major agricultural areas. The study period for this project is from 1998, when TRMM was first launched, to 2009. Since sea breezes in Florida typically occur in the months of May through October, these months were chosen to be the months of the study. During this time, there were five periods of El Nino and two periods of La Nina, with a neutral period separating each oscillation. In order to eliminate rainfall from systems other than sea breeze thunderstorms, only days that were conducive to the development of a sea breeze front were selected.

Cooley, Clayton↗

Role of Tropical Atlantic SST Variability as a Modulator of El Nino Teleconnections

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).

Teleconnection↗

El Nino-Induced Tropical Ocean/Land Energy Exchange in MERRA-2 and M2AMIP

Studies have shown the correlation and connection of surface temperatures across the globe, ocean and land, related to Tropical SSTs especially El Nino. This climate variability greatly influences regional weather and hydroclimate extremes (e.g. drought and flood). In this paper, we evaluate the relationship of temperatures across the tropical oceans and continents in MERRA-2, and also in a newly developed MERRA-2 AMIP ensemble simulation (M2AMIP). M2AMIP uses the same model and spatial resolution as MERRA-2, producing the same output diagnostics over 10 ensemble members. Composite El Nino temperature data are compared with observations to evaluate the land/sea contrast, variations and phase relationship. The temperature variations are related to surface heat fluxes and the atmospheric temperatures and transport, to identify the processes that lead to the lagged redistribution of heat in the tropics and beyond. Discernable cloud, radiation and data assimilation changes accompany the onset of El Nino affecting continental regions through the progression to and following the peak values. While the model represents these variations in general, regional strengths and weaknesses can be identified.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) Tracks 2-3 Peta-Gram Increase in Carbon Release to the Atmosphere During the 2014-2016 El Nino

The powerful El Niño event of 2015-2016 - the third most intense since the 1950s - has exerted a large impact on the Earth's natural climate system. The column-averaged CO2 dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) observations from satellites and ground based networks are analyzed together with in situ observations for the period of September 2014 to October 2016. From the differences between satellite (OCO-2) observations and simulations using an atmospheric chemistry-transport model, we estimate that, relative to the mean annual fluxes for 2014, the most recent El Niño has contributed to an excess CO2 emission from the Earth's surface (land+ocean) to the atmosphere in the range of 2.4+/-0.2 PgC (1 Pg = 10(exp 15) g) over the period of July 2015 to June 2016. The excess CO2 flux is resulted primarily from reduction in vegetation uptake due to drought, and to a lesser degree from increased biomass burning. It is about the half of the CO2 flux anomaly (range: 4.4-6.7 PgC) estimated for the 1997/1998 El Niño. The annual total sink is estimated to be 3.9+/-0.2 PgC for the assumed fossil fuel emission of 10.1 PgC. The major uncertainty in attribution arise from error in anthropogenic emission trends, satellite data and atmospheric transport.

OCO-2↗

El Nino Drought Increased Canopy Turnover in Amazon Forests

Amazon droughts, including the 2015-2016 El Ni~no, may reduce forest net primary productivityand increase canopy tree mortality, thereby altering both the short- and the longtermnet forest carbon balance. Given the broad extent of drought impacts, inventory plots oreddy flux towers may not capture regional variability in forest response to drought. We used multi-temporal airborne Lidar data and field measurements of coarse woodydebris to estimate patterns of canopy turnover and associated carbon losses in intact and fragmentedforests in the central Brazilian Amazon between 2013-2014 and 2014-2016. Average annualized canopy turnover rates increased by 65% during the drought period inboth intact and fragmented forests. The average size and height of turnover events was similarfor both time intervals, in contrast to expectations that the 2015-2016 El Ni~no droughtwould disproportionally affect large trees. Lidar biomass relationships between canopyturnover and field measurements of coarse woody debris were modest (R2 0.3), given similarcoarse woody debris production and Lidar-derived changes in canopy volume from singletree and multiple branch fall events. Our findings suggest that El Ni~no conditions accelerated canopy turnover in central Amazonforests, increasing coarse woody debris production by 62% to 1.22 Mg C ha1(exp) yr1(exp) indrought years.

ecosystem models↗

Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations Impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation Predictions: Case Studies from the NASA GEOS Seasonal Forecast System

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would have great societal benefit. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean salinity. Satellite sea surface salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to improve the estimates of ocean density changes and associated near-surface mixing. For the first time, we assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean reanalyses and how these initializations impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using NASA’s coupled forecast system (GEOS-S2S-2). For all initialization experiments, all available sea level and in situ temperature and salinity observations are assimilated. Separate observing system experiments (OSE) additionally assimilate Aquarius, and SMAP, SMOS, and these datasets combined. We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing experiments with and without the application of SSS assimilation. Next, we compare case studies of coupled forecasts for the big 2015 El Niño, the 2017 La Niña, and the weak El Niño in 2018 that are initialized from GEOS-S2S-2 spring reanalyses that assimilate and withhold along-track SSS. For each of these ENSO-event case studies, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation with respect to observed NINO3.4 anomalies (or at least reduces the forecast uncertainty). Satellite SSS assimilation improved characterization of the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better forecasts. These results further underline the value of satellite SSS assimilation into operational forecast systems.

Eric Hackert↗

The Boreal Winter El Niño Precipitation Response over North America: Insights into Why January is More Difficult to Predict than February

This study examines the within−season monthly variation of the El Niño response over North America during December−March using the NASA/GEOS model. In agreement with previous studies, the skill of 1−month lead GEOS coupled model forecasts of precipitation over North America is largest (smallest) for February (January), with similar results in uncoupled mode. A key finding is that the relatively poor January skillis the result ofthe model placing the main circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific slightly to the west of the observed, resulting inprecipitation anomalies that lie off the coast instead of over land as observed. In contrast, during February the observed circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific shifts westward, lining up with the predicted anomaly which is essentially unchanged from January, resulting in both the observed and predicted precipitation anomalies remaining off the coast. Furthermore, the largest precipitation anomalies occur along the southern tier of states associated with an eastward extended jet–something that the models capture reasonably well. Simulations with a stationary wave model indicate that the placement of January El Niño response to the west of the observed over the northeast Pacificis the result of biases in the January climatological stationary waves, rather than errors in the tropical Pacific El Niño heating anomalies in January. Furthermore, evidence is provided that the relatively poor simulation of the observed January climatology, characterized by a strengthened North Pacific jet and enhanced ridge over western North America, can be traced back to biases in the January climatology heating over the Tibet region and the tropical western Pacific.

Young-kwon Lim↗

Development of a C-ELS Specimen-Based Numerical Benchmark for Mode II Delamination and Assessment of Two VCCT-Based Propagation Strategies

A finite element (FE) benchmark example inspired by the calibrated end-loaded split (C-ELS) specimen is developed and used to assess the performance of delamination propagation capabilities based on linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). The C-ELS specimen has the advantage of a longer region of stable delamination propagation compared to the existing mode II benchmark case. The new benchmark example may therefore provide a better assessment tool by enabling more stable crack growth in regions further away from the boundary conditions or load application. First, a benchmark result is created manually using two-dimensional finite element models of the C-ELS specimen with different delamination lengths. Second, the performance of the virtual crack closure technique (VCCT) delamination propagation capabilities in the Abaqus/Standard®1 FE code and the recently developed Progressive Release eXplicit-VCCT (PRX-VCCT) method are assessed by comparing the results to the benchmark case. Two examples with different starter delamination lengths are studied. A shorter starter length is chosen to create a scenario with unstable delamination propagation. A longer delamination encourages stable delamination propagation. Detailed results from three-dimensional analyses with aligned and misaligned meshes and two levels of mesh refinement are provided. In general, good agreement can be achieved between the results obtained from the quasi-static propagation analysis and the benchmark analysis. Numerical artifacts including anomalous unreleased nodes in the crack wake and zig-zag crack fronts occur for propagation analyses using Abaqus/Standard VCCT. In comparison, continuous, smooth, delamination fronts are observed for PRX-VCCT. The use of the benchmark case to assess different VCCT-based propagation strategies illustrates the value of establishing benchmark cases.

Composite Materials↗

Daytime Sky Quality at El Leoncito, Argentina

We characterize the daytime sky quality in terms of brightness, cloud coverage, and mainweather variables at the Carlos Ulrico Cesco station of the Felix Aguilar Astronomical Ob-servatory (OAFA), located in El Leoncito National Park, San Juan, Argentina. We have col-lected more than 15 years of daily observations from the auxiliary sky brightness detectorsof the Mirror Coronagraph for Argentina (MICA, in operations from 1997 to 2012), includ-ing daily observing reports. We additionally present data from two meteorological stationsoperated at the site from 2000 to 2020. We determine the main statistical properties andseasonal variability of daytime sky brightness, clear sky time fraction (CSTF), precipitablewater vapor (WV), temperature, humidity, and wind speed, which are relevant for solar,particularly coronal observations.Our results confirm that El Leoncito is an excellent place to perform daytime astro-nomical observations. We measure a median sky brightness of 15.8 ppm, estimated at526.0±1.0 nm and 6 solar radii from the solar disk center; a median CSTF of 0.7; anda median WV below 6 mm. These values, and those of other relevant weather variables, arecomparable to the levels found among the best astronomical observing sites in the world.Due to the extended period of time analyzed and high sampling frequency, the novel dataand results presented in this report contribute to the analysis and interpretation of historicalsky brightness data and are of great value for the future planning of daytime astronomicalinstrumentation at El Leoncito.

F A Iglesias↗

Radiative Forcing of the Stratosphere by SO(sub 2) Gas, Silicate Ash, and H(sub 2)SO(sub 4) Aerosols Shortly after the 1982 Eruptions of El Chichon

The 1982 eruptions of El Chichon Volcano injected large quantities of sulfur dioxide gas and silicate ash into the stratosphere. Several studies have shown that the long-lived sulfuric acid aerosols derived from these volcanic effluents produced measurable changes in the radiative heating rates and the global circulation. The radiative and dynamical perturbations associated with the short-lived, but more strongly absorbing sulfur dioxide and ash clouds have received much less attention. We therefore used an atmospheric radiative transfer model and observations collected by satellites, aircraft, and ground based observers to estimate the amplitudes of the stratospheric radiative heating rate perturbations produced by each of these components during the first few weeks after the El Chichon eruption. One week after the April 4, 1982 eruption, net radiative heating rate perturbations exceeding 20 Kelvin per day were found at altitudes near 26 km.

El Chichon↗

Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Global Yields of Major Crops

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Nino likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.15.4 but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Nina years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0).Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

Crops↗

Stratospheric aerosol mass and latitudinal distribution of the El Chichon eruption cloud for October 1982

The eruptions of El Chicon in Mexico during March and April, 1982, produced the largest enhancements in stratospheric aerosols, which were experienced in at least the last 20 years. An experimental survey flight was conducted in October-November 1982 to underfly El Chichon's eruption cloud and to map out its latitudinal distribution. A NASA aircraft was flown between 46 deg N latitude and 46 deg S latitude in a coordinated field campaign. The present investigation is concerned with the results of lidar stratospheric measurements taken over the entire mission. The employed airborne lidar system consists of a ruby laser, nominally emitting 1 joule/pulse at 0.5 pulse/sec during flight, and a 35.6-cm receiving Cassegrainian-configured telescope. The lidar data presented are described in two forms, taking into account the lidar backscattering ratio and the integrated aerosol backscattering function.

Mccormick, M. P.↗

The atmospheric effects of El Chichon

The eruption of the Mexican volcano El Chichon in late March and early April of 1982 injected an unusually large amount of volcanic material into the stratosphere. This event demonstrates for the first time that a relatively small but sulfur-rich volcanic eruption can produce a dense, widespread stratospheric cloud. Sulfuric acid aerosol is formed by the photochemical reaction of sulfur gases released by a volcano with water vapor in the atmosphere. The aerosol causes a decrease in the mean global temperature because the droplets both absorb solar radiation and scatter it back into space. Attention is given to details concerning the volcanic eruption, the relation of El Chichon to the Mexican and Guatemalan volcanic belts, sources for the sulfur erupted by the volcano, and the mechanisms involved in the formation of sulfuric acid.

Rampino, M. R.↗