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NASA NTRS1998

Multiple-time scales analysis of physiological time series under neural control

We discuss multiple-time scale properties of neurophysiological control mechanisms, using heart rate and gait regulation as model systems. We find that scaling exponents can be used as prognostic indicators. Furthermore, detection of more subtle degradation of scaling properties may provide a novel early warning system in subjects with a variety of pathologies including those at high risk of sudden death.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2007

Coral Reef Remote Sensing using Simulated VIIRS and LDCM Imagery

The Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) node at NASA Stennis Space Center, MS, was used to simulate NASA next-generation sensor imagery over well-known coral reef areas: Looe Key, FL, and Kaneohe Bay, HI. The objective was to assess the degree to which next-generation sensor systems the Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) might provide key input to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON)/Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Decision Support Tool (DST). The DST data layers produced from the simulated imagery concerned water quality and benthic classification map layers. The water optical parameters of interest were chlorophyll (Chl) and the absorption coefficient (a). The input imagery used by the RPC for simulation included spaceborne (Hyperion) and airborne (AVIRIS) hyperspectral data. Specific field data to complement and aid in validation of the overflight data was used when available. The results of the experiment show that the next-generation sensor systems are capable of providing valuable data layer resources to NOAA's ICON/CREWS DST.

Estep, Leland↗

NASA NTRS2008

Coral Reef Remote Sensing Using Simulated VIIRS and LDCM Imagery

The Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) node at NASA Stennis Space Center, MS, was used to simulate NASA next-generation sensor imagery over well-known coral reef areas: Looe Key, FL, and Kaneohe Bay, HI. The objective was to assess the degree to which next-generation sensor systems-the Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM)- might provide key input to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON)/Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Decision Support Tool (DST). The DST data layers produced from the simulated imagery concerned water quality and benthic classification map layers. The water optical parameters of interest were chlorophyll (Chl) and the absorption coefficient (a). The input imagery used by the RPC for simulation included spaceborne (Hyperion) and airborne (AVIRIS) hyperspectral data. Specific field data to complement and aid in validation of the overflight data was used when available. The results of the experiment show that the next-generation sensor systems are capable of providing valuable data layer resources to NOAA s ICON/CREWS DST.

Estep, Leland↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Overview of the NOAA Drought Task Force

The charge of the NOAA Drought Task Force is to coordinate and facilitate the various MAPP-funded research efforts with the overall goal of achieving significant advances in understanding and in the ability to monitor and predict drought over North America. In order to achieve this, the task force has developed a Drought Test-bed that individual research groups can use to test/evaluate methods and ideas. Central to this is a focus on three high profile North American droughts (1998-2004 western US drought, 2006-2007 SE US drought, 2011- current Tex-Mex drought) to facilitate collaboration among projects, including the development of metrics to assess the quality of monitoring and prediction products, and the development of an experimental drought monitoring and prediction system that incorporates and assesses recent advances. This talk will review the progress and plans of the task force, including efforts to help advance official national drought products, and the development of early warning systems by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). Coordination with other relevant national and international efforts such as the emerging NMME capabilities and the international effort to develop a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) will be discussed.

Schubert, S.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Bhutan Water Resources II: Comparing Phenology, Precipitation, and Temperature Data in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Bhutan is vulnerable to climate fluctuations that can affect vegetation phenology patterns. Changes in the climate have raised concerns from local farmers about altered growing seasons. In response, the DEVELOP team assessed annual vegetation phenology trends across Bhutan from 1981-2014 by comparing vegetation phenology-derived data and meteorological data. The project assessed phenology change using Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. We also used Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) precipitation data and Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) temperature data to assess climate trends in the country. The team assessed VIP phenology data for 1981-2014 to assess trends for the start of season, day of peak, and length of season. For the main growing season, the results indicated that the start of season and day of peak were delayed, while the length of season increased by 22 days. Analysis of temperature and precipitation data for the early 1980s to present indicted that Bhutan’s temperature has become warmer and precipitation has increased. Satellite-based precipitation and temperature data were compared to in situ precipitation and temperature data, yielding high correlations for both precipitation (R=0.85) and temperature (R=0.9). The project results and methods were shared with the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER) to help assess climate change impacts in Bhutan.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

NASA NTRS2008

Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

Hong, Yang↗

NASA NTRS2022

NASA's NMME-Based S2S Hydrologic Forecast System for Food Insecurity Early Warning in Southern Africa

In situ hydrologic monitoring over regions most susceptible to food insecurity can be a challenge in current times due to various socio-economic and political issues in combination with environmental factors such as ongoing famine or drought. Hydrologic monitoring and initializing forecasts based on remotely sensed and analyzed data can contribute significantly to early warning in such regions. Routine hydrologic forecasts, as provided by NASA’s Hydrologic Forecasting and Analysis System (NHyFAS), are a recent addition to early warning systems. A custom instance of NHyFAS, termed FLDAS-Forecast, is used by FEWS NET’s Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS). The FLDAS-Forecast’s dynamic forecasting component was originally set up with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) forecast inputs and has been recently expanded with precipitation forecast forcing from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). This paper describes the improvements in seasonal hydrologic forecasts produced with this updated system. Evaluations in this study focus on soil moisture across southern Africa’s growing season. Soil moisture forecasts are benchmarked and evaluated relative to climatology-based forecasts and historic runs, which are driven by observation-based meteorological forcing fields, and they are verified with remotely sensed observations of soil moisture and vegetation. Through multiple deterministic and probabilistic skill assessments, we show that using the larger ensemble of NMME precipitation inputs in the forecast system results in higher quality hydrologic forecasts than are allowed by climatology- or GEOS-only-based forecasts. Further, the near-real-time NMME-based rootzone soil moisture forecasts were able to correctly predict developing drought conditions over southern Africa through late 2019 and into early 2020.

Hydrologic forecasts↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Drought Monitoring for the Middle East and North Africa Region via Data Assimilation Using the NASA Land Information System (LIS)

Food and water security become an increasingly pressing concern for countries within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region under climate change. Droughts are among the most important issues facing this region in both economic and social terms, which have become much more severe in recent decades. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is, therefore, critical to support drought impact assessment and risk management. This presentation describes the effort to improve the simulation of hydrological conditions for such semi-arid environment by Noah Multi-parameterization Land Surface Model within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) via assimilating remotely sensed leaf area index and soil moisture in the presence of irrigation. Multi-source satellite evapotranspiration products are used to evaluate the model performance under the impact of the choice of met-forcings, the presence of irrigation and data assimilation. The improved model configuration is aimed to deliver a better soil moisture estimation for the composite drought indicator (CDI) for drought monitoring and to provide a better initial condition in support for hydrological drought forecasting.

Wanshu Nie↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Structural Health Monitoring of Vertical Lift Structures Operating in an Urban Environment

Verifying the structural integrity of aeronautical vehicles is of critical importance for the safety of passengers and crew. When operating in a densely populated urban area, pedestrian safety and collateral damage to buildings and other infrastructure also become important concerns. Damage modes, including fatigue from an increased frequency of take-off and landing cycles and a higher probability of impacts from bird strikes, also pose different failure risks as compared to commercial long-haul aircraft and thus require a change in structural health monitoring philosophy. This presentation will review the state of the art in structural health monitoring with an eye toward applications for vertical lift systems operated in the urban environment. Structural health monitoring methods including eddy current, fiber optic, ultrasonic plate wave, surface acoustic wave and electrical impedance tomography will be explored for use in on-board monitoring of impact and overstrain events as well as damage detection and characterization. Infusion of the data into an early warning system to help ensure damage will not propagate to failure during flight will also be discussed.

Russell A Wincheski↗

NASA NTRS2020

Bhutan Water Resources Tech Paper: Comparing Precipitation, Temperature, and Phenology Data Trends in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Himalayan countries, including Bhutan, have become vulnerable to warming trends which result in increasing temperature and variable rainfall and snowfall. By combining phenological and meteorological data, Earth observation platforms and sensors were used to assess trends in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation phenology in Bhutan from 1996 through 2017. This project studied precipitation using Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station data, analyzed temperature using the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System, incorporated elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, and assessed vegetation phenology using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate climate variability and its effects on Bhutan. In situ temperature and precipitation data were also collected from the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) project and Bhutan’s National Center for Hydrology and Meterology. Modeled and in situ data showed similar trends in precipitation and temperature for the Thimpu, Chhukha, and Gasa regions. Aqua and Terra MODIS phenology data were variable from year to year. However, the data suggested a late onset of spring green up. Partners at the Bhutan Foundation and locally in Bhutan can use this information to better understand and monitor climate variability and replicate these methods for future analysis.

Kinley Dorji↗

NASA NTRS2020

Bhutan Water Resources Project Summary - Comparing Precipitation, Temperature, and Phenology Data Trends in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

NASA NTRS2010

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger is shown.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Bhutan Water Resources III: Analyzing Forest Disturbances and Climate Data in Bhutan to Create a Tool for Assisting the Himalayan Environment Rhythm Observation and Evaluation Systems (HEROES) Project

Forest disturbances from bark beetle outbreaks are a major concern in Bhutan, known to cause extensive tree mortality to pine and spruce forests. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute of Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER), the Bhutan Foundation, and the Karuna Foundation to assess forest changes for the districts of Bumthang and Haa from 2000 to 2018. The project used preprocessed meteorological data from the Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), along with Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) to assess apparent forest disturbance occurrences and observed climate trends. Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) was used to resolve variations in elevation and slope for mountainous regions. Using the Google Earth Engine LandTrendr (LT) code algorithm, along with Landsat data, the team developed an app called Forest Disturbances Detection Toolbox (FDDT) to assess forest changes in Bhutan. The app includes climate variables for the focus districts, along with LT variables, which allows the end users to further examine the cause of disturbances. The team compared geocoordinates for known disturbances with LT disturbance detection products. Although additional work is needed in the future to validate the project end products from the FDDT, the tool will be provided to the project partners to aid forest management efforts in Bhutan.

Tashi Choden↗

NASA NTRS1989

Detection of the earth with the SETI microwave observing system assumed to be operating out in the Galaxy

The maximum range is calculated at which radar signals from the earth could be detected by a search system similar to the NASA SETI Microwave Observing Project (SETI MOP) assumed to be operating out in the Galaxy. Figures are calculated for the Targeted Search and for the Sky Survey parts of the MOP, both planned to be operating in the 1990s. The probability of detection is calculated for the two most powerful transmitters, the planetary radar at Arecibo (Puerto Rico) and the ballistic missile early warning systems (BMEWSs), assuming that the terrestrial radars are only in the eavesdropping mode. It was found that, for the case of a single transmitter within the maximum range, the highest probability is for the sky survey detecting BMEWSs; this is directly proportional to BMEWS sky coverage and is therefore 0.25.

Billingham, John↗

NASA NTRS1992

Detection of the Earth with the SETI microwave observing system assumed to be operating out in the galaxy

This paper estimates the maximum range at which radar signals from the Earth could be detected by a search system similar to the NASA Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Microwave Observing Project (SETI MOP) assumed to be operating out in the galaxy. Figures are calculated for the Targeted Search, and for the Sky Survey parts of the MOP, both operating, as currently planned, in the second half of the decade of the 1990s. Only the most powerful terrestrial transmitters are considered, namely, the planetary radar at Arecibo in Puerto Rico, and the ballistic missile early warning systems (BMEWS). In each case the probabilities of detection over the life of the MOP are also calculated. The calculation assumes that we are only in the eavesdropping mode. Transmissions intended to be detected by SETI systems are likely to be much stronger and would of course be found with higher probability to a greater range. Also, it is assumed that the transmitting civilization is at the same level of technological evolution as ours on Earth. This is very improbable. If we were to detect another technological civilization, it would, on statistical grounds, be much older than we are and might well have much more powerful transmitters. Both factors would make detection by the NASA MOP a much more likely outcome.

NASA Center ARC↗

NASA NTRS2021

Highland Lakes Water Resources: Using NASA Earth Observations to Improve Detection Systems for Harmful Algal Events in the Highland Lakes in Central Texas

Beginning in 2019, harmful algal events in Austin, Texas, caused canine deaths in the Lady Bird Lake and Lake Travis reservoirs. These reservoirs are part of the larger Highland Lakes chain, managed by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) and the City of Austin Department of Watershed Protection (CoA DWP), which fulfill municipal, commercial, and agricultural water demands. Given the recent increase in favorable algal event conditions in central Texas, the LCRA and CoA DWP partnered with NASA DEVELOP to improve algal event early-warning systems through the application of remote sensing and machine learning. An Earth observation-based algal monitoring system will assist the responsible agencies in predicting algal conditions and communicating hazards to the public. The NASA DEVELOP team utilized Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) data to produce products including chlorophyll-a concentrations, cyanobacteria detections, turbidity, and water surface temperature. Chlorophyll-a concentrations were retrieved with a pre-trained machine learning model (mixture density network) and spectral indices, while the other products were derived from spectral indices. In situ field data were used to validate and quantify uncertainties for each product. The validations show strong correlations for chlorophyll-a and water surface temperature. Time series analyses of chlorophyll-a concentrations show peaks in the severe drought years (2015 and 2016). This project's resulting products enable monitoring of environmental proxies relevant to algal event presence in the Highland Lakes chain and will ultimately support water management, decision making, and risk communication.

Kaitlynn Hietpas↗

NASA NTRS2011

New Local, National and Regional Cereal Price Indices for Improved Identification of Food Insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in surplus-producing areas, often have a delayed and variable response to international export market price trends. Here we present new price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We found that cereal price indices constructed using market prices within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. Using satellite-derived remote sensing information that estimates local production and the FAO Cereals Index as predictors, we were able to forecast movements of the local or national price indices in the remote, arid and semi-arid countries of the 38 countries examined. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier early warning of food security crises.

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

NASA Near Earth Network (NEN), Deep Space Network (DSN) and Space Network (SN) Support of CubeSat Communications

There has been a historical trend to increase capability and drive down the Size, Weight and Power (SWAP) of satellites and that trend continues today. Small satellites, including systems conforming to the CubeSat specification, because of their low launch and development costs, are enabling new concepts and capabilities for science investigations across multiple fields of interest to NASA. NASA scientists and engineers across many of NASAs Mission Directorates and Centers are developing exciting CubeSat concepts and welcome potential partnerships for CubeSat endeavors. From a communications and tracking point of view, small satellites including CubeSats are a challenge to coordinate because of existing small spacecraft constraints, such as limited SWAP and attitude control, low power, and the potential for high numbers of operational spacecraft. The NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Programs Near Earth Network (NEN), Deep Space Network (DSN) and the Space Network (SN) are customer driven organizations that provide comprehensive communications services for space assets including data transport between a missions orbiting satellite and its Mission Operations Center (MOC). The NASA NEN consists of multiple ground antennas. The SN consists of a constellation of geosynchronous (Earth orbiting) relay satellites, named the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The DSN currently makes available 13 antennas at its three tracking stations located around the world for interplanetary communication. The presentation will analyze how well these space communication networks are positioned to support the emerging small satellite and CubeSat market. Recognizing the potential support, the presentation will review the basic capabilities of the NEN, DSN and SN in the context of small satellites and will present information about NEN, DSN and SN-compatible flight radios and antenna development activities at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and across industry. The presentation will review concepts on how the SN multiple access capability could help locate CubeSats and provide a low-latency early warning system. The presentation will also present how the DSN is evolving to maximize use of its assets for interplanetary CubeSats. The critical spectrum-related topics of available and appropriate frequency bands, licensing, and coordination will be reviewed. Other key considerations, such as standardization of radio frequency interfaces and flight and ground communications hardware systems, will be addressed as such standardization may reduce the amount of time and cost required to obtain frequency authorization and perform compatibility and end-to-end testing. Examples of standardization that exist today are the NASA NEN, DSN and SN systems which have published users guides and defined frequency bands for high data rate communication, as well as conformance to CCSDS standards. The workshop session will also seek input from the workshop participants to better understand the needs of small satellite systems and to identify key development activities and operational approaches necessary to enhance communication and navigation support using NASA's NEN, DSN and SN.

Telecommunication↗