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Using Information from Rendezvous Missions for Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused by Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions about potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size range of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) what is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its structure and heterogeneity from the surface and throughout its interior? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as inputs for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) the devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact on land based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) how information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) how information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature to provide input for a new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in the creation of an appraisal of the threat from 2017 PDC with the least uncertainty possible, herein called the best-case.

Asteroid Impact Appraisals↗

Around Which Stars Can TESS Detect Earth-like Planets? The Revised TESS Habitable Zone Catalog

In the search for life in the cosmos, NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission has already monitored about 74% of the sky for transiting extrasolar planets, including potentially habitable worlds. However, TESS only observed a fraction of the stars long enough to be able to find planets like Earth. We use the primary mission data—the first two years of observations—and identify 4239 stars within 210 pc that TESS observed long enough to see three transits of an exoplanet that receives similar irradiation to Earth: 738 of these stars are located within 30 pc. We provide reliable stellar parameters from the TESS Input Catalog that incorporates Gaia DR2 and also calculate the transit depth and radial velocity semiamplitude for an Earth-analog planet. Of the 4239 stars in the Revised TESS HZ Catalog, 9 are known exoplanet hosts—GJ1061, GJ1132, GJ3512, GJ685, Kepler-42, LHS1815, L98-59, RRCae, and TOI700—around which TESS could identify additional Earth-like planetary companions. Thirty-seven additional stars host yet unconfirmed TESS Objects of Interest: three of these orbit in the habitable zone—TOI203, TOI715, and TOI2298. For a subset of 614 of the 4239 stars, TESS has observed the star long enough to be able to observe planets throughout the full temperate, habitable zone out to the equivalent of Mars’ orbit. Thus, the Revised TESS Habitable Zone Catalog provides a tool for observers to prioritize stars for follow-up observation to discover life in the cosmos. These stars are the best path toward the discovery of habitable planets using the TESS mission data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Preparing for Exploration from the Surface of Our Sister Planet

Earth’s sister planet, Venus, is teeming with questions and mysteries, yet is a critical planet to explore as we seek to learn more about Earth, our solar system, and exoplanets. This presentation will touch on the motivation for exploring Venus, some of the mysteries that exist, the challenges we face, and what NASA is doing to prepare for landing and operating on this inhospitable world.

Venus↗

Kepler Mission to Detect Earth-like Planets

Kepler Mission to detect Earth-like planets in our Milky Way galaxy was approved by NASA in December 2001 for a 4-5 year mission. The launch is planned in about 5 years. The Kepler observatory will be placed in an Earth-trailing orbit. The unique feature of the Kepler Mission is its ability to detect Earth-like planets orbiting around solar-type stars at a distance similar to that of Earth (from our Sun); such an orbit could provide an environment suitable for supporting life as we know it. The Kepler observatory accomplishes this feat by looking for the transits of planetary object in front of their suns; Kepler has a photometric precision of 10E-5 (0.00001) to achieve such detections. Other ongoing planetary detection programs (based mostly on a technique that looks for the shifting of spectral lines of the primary star due to its planetary companions' motions around it) have detected massive planets (with masses in the range of Jupiter); such massive planets are not considered suitable for supporting life. If our current theories for the formation of planetary systems are valid, we expect to detect about 50 Earth-like planets during Kepler's 4-year mission (assuming a random distribution of the planetary orbital inclinations with respect to the line of sight from Kepler). The number of detection will increase about 640 planets if the planets to be detected are Jupiter-sized.

Kondo, Yoji↗

Kepler Mission to Detect Earth-like Planets

Kepler Mission to detect Earth-like planets in our Milky Way galaxy was approved by NASA in December 2001 for a 4-5 year mission. The launch is planned in about 5 years. The Kepler observatory will be placed in an Earth-trailing orbit. The unique feature of the Kepler Mission is its ability to detect Earth-like planets orbiting around solar-type stars at a distance similar to that of Earth (from our Sun); such an orbit could provide an environment suitable for supporting life as we know it. The Kepler observatory accomplishes this feat by looking for the transits of planetary object in front of their suns; Kepler has a photometric precision of 10E-5 (0.00001) to achieve such detections. Other ongoing planetary detection programs (based mostly on a technique that looks for the shifting of spectral lines of the primary star due to its planetary companions' motions around it) have detected massive planets (with masses in the range of Jupiter); such massive planets are not considered suitable for supporting life. If our current theories for the formation of planetary systems are valid, we expect to detect about 50 Earth-like planets during Kepler's 4-year mission (assuming a random distribution of the planetary orbital inclinations with respect to the line of sight from Kepler). The number of detection will increase about 640 planets if the planets to be detected are Jupiter-sized.

Kondo, Yoji↗

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets. III. Fractional Habitability from a Water Cycle Perspective

The habitable fraction of a planet's surface is important for the detectability of surface biosignatures. The extent and distribution of habitable areas are influenced by external parameters that control the planet's climate, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. We explore these issues using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model, focusing on terrestrial water fluxes and thus the potential for the existence of complex life on land. Habitability is examined as a function of insolation and planet rotation for an Earth-like world with zero obliquity and eccentricity orbiting the Sun. We assess fractional habitability using an aridity index that measures the net supply of water to the land. Earth-like planets become "superhabitable" (a larger habitable surface area than Earth) as insolation and day-length increase because their climates become more equable, reminiscent of past warm periods on Earth when complex life was abundant and widespread. The most slowly rotating, most highly irradiated planets, though, occupy a hydrological regime unlike any on Earth, with extremely warm, humid conditions at high latitudes but little rain and subsurface water storage. Clouds increasingly obscure the surface as insolation increases, but visibility improves for modest increases in rotation period. Thus, moderately slowly rotating rocky planets with insolation near or somewhat greater than modern Earth's appear to be promising targets for surface characterization by a future direct imaging mission.

Exoplanet atmospheric variability↗

Climates of Warm Earth-Like Planets III: Fractional Habitability from a Water Cycle Perspective

The habitable fraction of a planet's surface is important for the detectability of surface biosignatures. The extent and distribution of habitable areas are influenced by external parameters that control the planet's climate, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. We explore these issues using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model, focusing on terrestrial water fluxes and thus the potential for the existence of complex life on land. Habitability is examined as a function of insolation and planet rotation for an Earth-like world with zero obliquity and eccentricity orbiting the Sun. We assess fractional habitability using an aridity index that measures the net supply of water to the land. Earth-like planets become "superhabitable" (a larger habitable surface area than Earth) as insolation and day-length increase because their climates become more equable, reminiscent of past warm periods on Earth when complex life was abundant and widespread. The most slowly rotating, most highly irradiated planets, though, occupy a hydrological regime unlike any on Earth, with extremely warm, humid conditions at high latitudes but little rain and subsurface water storage. Clouds increasingly obscure the surface as insolation increases, but visibility improves for modest increases in rotation period. Thus, moderately slowly rotating rocky planets with insolation near or somewhat greater than modern Earth's appear to be promising targets for surface characterization by a future direct imaging mission.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗

Beyond Kepler: Direct Imaging of Earth-like Planets

Is there another Earth out there? Is there life on it? People have been asking these questions for over two thousand years, and we finally stand on the verge of answering them. The Kepler space telescope is NASA's first mission designed to study Earthlike exoplanets (exo-Earths), and it will soon tell us how often exo-Earths occur in the habitable zones of their stars. The next natural step after Kepler is spectroscopic characterization of exo-Earths, which would tell us whether they possess an atmosphere, oxygen, liquid water, as well as other biomarkers. In order to do this, directly imaging an exo-Earth may be necessary (at least for Sun-like stars). Directly imaging an exo-Earth is challenging and likely requires a flagship-size optical space telescope with an unprecedented imaging system capable of achieving contrasts of 1(exp 10) very close to the diffraction limit. Several coronagraphs and external occulters have been proposed to meet this challenge and are in development. After first overviewing the history and current state of the field, my talk will focus on the work proceeding at the Ames Coronagraph Experiment (ACE) at the NASA Ames Research Center, where we are developing the Phase Induced Amplitude Apodization (PIAA) coronagraph in a collaboration with JPL. PIAA is a powerful technique with demonstrated aggressive performance that defines the state of the art at small inner working angles. At ACE, we have achieved contrasts of 2(exp -8) with an inner working angle of 2 lambda/D and 1(exp -6) at 1.4 lambda/D. On the path to exo-Earth imaging, we are also pursuing a smaller telescope concept called EXCEDE (EXoplanetary Circumstellar Environments and Disk Explorer), which was recently selected for technology development (Category III) by NASA's Explorer program. EXCEDE will do fundamental science on debris disks as well as serve as a technological and scientific pathfinder for an exo-Earth imaging mission.

Belikov, Ruslan↗

The Impact of Stripped Cores on the Frequency of Earth-size Planets in the Habitable Zone

The frequency of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone(HZ)of Sun-like stars, hereafter, is a key parameter to evaluate the yield of nearby Earth analogs that can be detected and characterized by future missions. Yet, this value is poorly constrained as there are no reliable exoplanet candidates in the HZ of Sun-like stars in the Kepler field. Here, we show that extrapolations relying on the population of small(<1.8R), short-period(<25 days)planets bias to large values. As the radius distribution at short orbital periods is strongly affected by atmospheric loss, we reevaluate using exoplanets at larger separations. We find that drops considerably, to values of only5% - 10%. Observations of young(<100 Myr)clusters can probe short-period sub-Neptunes that still retain most of their envelope mass. As such, they can be used to quantify the contamination of sub-Neptunes to the population of Kepler short-period small planets and aid in more reliable estimates of.

Pascucci, Ilaria↗

Modeling Kepler Transit Light Curves as False Positives: Rejection of Blend Scenarios for Kepler-9, and Validation of Kepler-9 d, a Super-Earth-Size Planet in a Multiple System

Light curves from the Kepler Mission contain valuable information on the nature of the phenomena producing the transit-like signals. To assist in exploring the possibility that they are due to an astrophysical false positive we describe a procedure (BLENDER) to model the photometry in terms of a blend rather than a planet orbiting a star. A blend may consist of a background or foreground eclipsing binary (or star-planet pair) whose eclipses are attenuated by the light of the candidate and possibly other stars within the photometric aperture. We apply BLENDER to the case of Kepler-9 (KIC 3323887), a target harboring two previously confirmed Saturn-size planets (Kepler-9 b and Kepler-9 c) showing transit timing variations, and an additional shallower signal with a 1.59 day period suggesting the presence of a super-Earth-size planet. Using BLENDER together with constraints from other follow-up observations we are able to rule out all blends for the two deeper signals and provide independent validation of their planetary nature. For the shallower signal, we rule out a large fraction of the false positives that might mimic the transits. The false alarm rate for remaining blends depends in part (and inversely) on the unknown frequency of small-size planets. Based on several realistic estimates of this frequency, we conclude with very high confidence that this small signal is due to a super-Earth-size planet (Kepler-9 d) in a multiple system, rather than a false positive. The radius is determined to be 1.64(exp)(sub-14),R, and current spectroscopic observations are as yet insufficient to establish its mass.

PLANETARY SYSTEMS↗

Stellar wind impact on early atmospheres around unmagnetized Earth-like planets

ABSTRACT Stellar rotation at early ages plays a crucial role in the survival of primordial atmospheres around Earth-mass exoplanets. Earth-like planets orbiting fast-rotating stars may undergo complete photoevaporation within the first few hundred Myr driven by the enhanced stellar XUV [X-rays and extreme ultraviolet (EUV)] radiation, while planets orbiting slow-rotating stars are expected to experience difficulty in losing their primordial envelopes. Besides the action of stellar radiation, stellar winds induce additional erosion on these primordial atmospheres, altering their morphology, extent, and causing supplementary atmospheric losses. In this paper, we study the impact of activity-dependent stellar winds on primordial atmospheres to evaluate the extent to which the action of these winds can be significant in the whole planetary evolution at early evolutionary stages. We performed 3D magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) simulations of the interaction of photoevaporating atmospheres around unmagnetized Earth-mass planets in the time span between 50 and 500 Myr, analysing the joint evolution of stellar winds and atmospheres for both fast- and slow-rotating stars. Our results reveal substantial changes in the evolution of primordial atmospheres when influenced by fast-rotating stars, with a significant reduction in extent at early ages. In contrast, atmospheres embedded in the stellar winds from slow-rotating stars remain largely unaltered. The interaction of the magnetized stellar winds with the ionized upper atmospheres of these planets allows us to evaluate the formation and evolution of different MHD structures, such as double bow shocks and induced magnetospheres. This work will shed light on the first evolutionary stages of Earth-like exoplanets, which are of crucial relevance in terms of planet habitability.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

High-resolution Spectra of Earth-like Planets Orbiting Red Giant Host Stars

In the near future we will have ground- and space-based telescopes that are designed to observe and characterize Earth-like planets. While attention is focused on exoplanets orbiting main-sequence stars, more than 150 exoplanets have already been detected orbiting red giants, opening the intriguing question of what rocky worlds orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ) of red giants would be like and how to characterize them. We present a high-resolution spectral database of reflection and emission spectra for nominal Earth-like planets orbiting in the red giant HZ from the visible to infrared (0.4–20 μm) for planets orbiting at the Earth-equivalent distance. We also show the change of such planetary spectra through the evolution of their red giant hosts. While the luminosity of the host increases the contrast ratio between star and planet, the increased orbital distance of the HZ for red giant hosts relaxes the light suppression requirements close to the star, which could make such planets interesting targets to characterize and search for signs of life, if new coronagraph designs with higher suppression at larger orbital separations could be developed. We assess the feasibility of characterizing atmospheric features including biosignatures for such planets with the proposed mission concept Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor (LUVOIR).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet Rescued from False Positive Status

We report the discovery of an Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone of a low-mass star called Kepler-1649. The planet, Kepler-1649 c, is 1.06(+0.15, -0.10.) times the size of Earth and transits its 0.1977 ± 0.0051 Mʘ “mid” M-dwarf host star every 19.5 days. It receives 74% ± 3% the incident flux of Earth, giving it an equilibrium temperature of 234 ± 20 K and placing it firmly inside the circumstellar habitable zone. Kepler-1649 also hosts a previously known inner planet that orbits every 8.7 days and is roughly equivalent to Venus in size and incident flux. Kepler-1649 c was originally classified as a false positive (FP) by the Kepler pipeline, but was rescued as part of a systematic visual inspection of all automatically dispositioned Kepler FPs. This discovery highlights the value of human inspection of planet candidates even as automated techniques improve, and hints that terrestrial planets around mid to late M-dwarfs may be more common than those around more massive stars.

Andrew Vanderburg↗