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At least 91 records · Page 5

DisasterAWARE – A Global Alerting Platform for Flood Events

The rising number of flooding events combined with increased urbanization is contributing to significant economic losses due to damages to structures and infrastructures. From a risk reduction and resilience perspective, it is not only essential to forecast flood risk and potential impacts, but also to disseminate the information to stakeholders on the ground for rapid implementation of mitigation and response measures. This paper provides (i) an introduction to DisasterAWARE®, a global alerting system, that is used to disseminate flood risk information to stakeholders across the globe, and (ii) a discussion of the models implemented using earth observation data (Synthetic Aperture Radar and optical imagery) for near real-time assessment of flood severity and potential flood impacts to infrastructures. While the models are still in their nascent stage, a case study implementation of the models for the 2020 flooding event in Africa is presented to showcase the model integration with DisasterAWARE®.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NCAR/EOL ISFS Data for LASSO-CACTI Overview Paper

5 minute averages of surface meteorology and flux data collected by the NCAR/EOL Integrated Surface Flux System (ISFS) at 15 sites during the RELAMPAGO field campaign. These data have been quality-controlled and are available in NetCDF format. Winds reported by the sonic anemometers have been tilt corrected and rotated into geographic coordinates. Data providence, citation, and acknowledgement This ARM data set is a copy of v2.0 of the NCAR data set obtained on 6-Jun-2024 from https://doi.org/10.26023/ZPHJ-JW9W-2B0Y. The citation for the original data source is: NCAR/EOL In-situ Sensing Facility, Oncley, S. 2021. NCAR/EOL ISFS Surface Meteorology and Flux Products, 5-minute. Version 2.0. UCAR/NCAR - Earth Observing Laboratory. https://doi.org/10.26023/ZPHJ-JW9W-2B0Y Accessed 06 Jun 2024. In addition to the citation reference and any other acknowledgements, please acknowledge NCAR/EOL in your publications with text such as: "Data provided by NCAR/EOL under the sponsorship of the National Science Foundation. https://data.eol.ucar.edu/"

atmosphere: surface↗

Small-amplitude Compressible Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence Modulated by Collisionless Damping in Earth’s Magnetosheath: Observation Matches Theory

Plasma turbulence is a ubiquitous dynamical process that transfers energy across many spatial and temporal scales and affects energetic particle transport. Recent advances in the understanding of compressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence demonstrate the important role of damping in shaping energy distributions on small scales, yet its observational evidence is still lacking. This study provides the first observational evidence of substantial collisionless damping (CD) modulation on the small-amplitude compressible MHD turbulence cascade in Earth’s magnetosheath using four Cluster spacecraft. Based on an improved compressible MHD decomposition algorithm, turbulence is decomposed into three eigenmodes: incompressible Alfvén modes and compressible slow and fast (magnetosonic) modes. Our observations demonstrate that CD enhances the anisotropy of compressible MHD modes because CD has a strong dependence on wave propagation angle. The wavenumber distributions of slow modes are mainly stretched perpendicular to the background magnetic field (B 0 ) and weakly modulated by CD. In contrast, fast modes are subjected to a more significant CD modulation. Fast modes exhibit a weak, scale-independent anisotropy above the CD truncation scale. Below the CD truncation scale, the anisotropy of fast modes enhances as wavenumbers increase. As a result, fast-mode fractions in the total energy of compressible modes decrease with the increase of perpendicular wavenumber (to B 0 ) or wave propagation angle. Our findings reveal how the turbulence cascade is shaped by CD and its consequences for anisotropies in the space environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Hubble Space Telescope's Near-UV and Optical Transmission Spectrum of Earth as an Exoplanet

We observed the 2019 January total lunar eclipse with the Hubble Space Telescope’s STIS spectrograph to obtain the first near-UV (1700–3200 Å) observation of Earth as a transiting exoplanet. The observatories and instruments that will be able to perform transmission spectroscopy of exo-Earths are beginning to be planned, and characterizing the transmission spectrum of Earth is vital to ensuring that key spectral features (e.g., ozone, or O{sub 3}) are appropriately captured in mission concept studies. O{sub 3} is photochemically produced from O{sub 2}, a product of the dominant metabolism on Earth today, and it will be sought in future observations as critical evidence for life on exoplanets. Ground-based observations of lunar eclipses have provided the Earth’s transmission spectrum at optical and near-IR wavelengths, but the strongest O{sub 3} signatures are in the near-UV. We describe the observations and methods used to extract a transmission spectrum from Hubble lunar eclipse spectra, and identify spectral features of O{sub 3} and Rayleigh scattering in the 3000–5500 Å region in Earth’s transmission spectrum by comparing to Earth models that include refraction effects in the terrestrial atmosphere during a lunar eclipse. Our near-UV spectra are featureless, a consequence of missing the narrow time span during the eclipse when near-UV sunlight is not completely attenuated through Earth’s atmosphere due to extremely strong O{sub 3} absorption and when sunlight is transmitted to the lunar surface at altitudes where it passes through the O{sub 3} layer rather than above it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Study of Slow-mode Shocks in the Near-Earth Magnetotail with MMS Observations and Hybrid Simulations

The structure of the magnetic reconnection boundary, particularly the presence of slow-mode shocks in the near-Earth magnetotail was studied by using magnetospheric multiscale (MMS) observations and 2.5D hybrid simulations. A total of 51 crossings of MMS from 2017 to 2021 were analyzed. We found that the detection percentage of slow-mode shocks in the near-Earth magnetotail is 41%–55%. Previous studies have only reported one slow-mode shock event in the near-Earth magnetotail and a slow-mode shock detection percentage of 10% or lower in the mid-to-distant magnetotail. It was observed that if the high-energy beam region data is removed from the slow-mode shock downstream observations then the detection of slow-mode shocks reduces, implying that the kinetic effects play an important role in the detection of slow-mode shocks. For the crossings where the interface was not identified as a slow-mode shock, it was found that the turbulence in those crossings can change the mass flux values and disrupt the detection of slow-mode shock. However, the macroscopic slow-mode shock-like structure stably exists around the magnetic reconnection interface, as most of the conditions for slow-mode shocks were satisfied. This result suggests that slow-mode shocks are a general feature of magnetic reconnection geometry. We find that the lack of detection of slow-mode shocks in previous observations and simulations can be explained by taking into account the kinetic structure of slow-mode shocks and the presence of turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An acoustic investigation of the near-surface turbulence on Mars

The Perseverance rover is carrying out an original acoustic experiment on Mars: the SuperCam microphone records the spherical acoustic waves generated by laser sparks at distances from 2 m to more than 8 m. These N-shaped acoustic waves scatter from the multiple local heterogeneities of the turbulent atmosphere. Therefore, large and random fluctuations of sound travel time and intensity develop as the waves cross the medium. The variances of the travel times and the scintillation index (normalized variance of the sound intensity) are studied within the mathematical formalism of the propagation of spherical acoustic waves through thermal turbulence to infer statistical properties of the Mars atmospheric temperature fluctuation field. The comparison with the theory is made by simplifying assumptions that do not include wind fluctuations and diffraction effects. Two Earth years (about one Martian year) of observations acquired during the maximum convective period (10:00–14:00 Mars local time) show a good agreement between the dataset and the formalism: the travel time variance diverges from the linear Chernov solution exactly where the density of occurrence of the first caustic reaches its maximum. Moreover, on average, waves travel faster than the mean speed of sound due to a fast path effect, which is also observed on Earth. To account for the distribution of turbulent eddies, several power spectra are tested and the best match to observation is obtained with a generalized von Karman spectrum with a shallower slope than the Kolmogorov cascade, φ(k)∝(1 + k 2 L 2 ) -4/3 . It is associated with an outer scale of turbulence, L, of 11 cm at 2 m above the surface and a standard deviation of 6 K over 9 s for the temperature. These near-surface atmospheric properties are consistent with a weak to moderate wave scattering regime around noon with little saturation. Overall, this study presents an innovative and promising methodology to probe the near-surface atmospheric turbulence on Mars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Benthic Kinetic Energy in an Earth System Model and Observations

The benthic layer of the ocean is closely correlated with every upper layer above it. Close analysis of benthic layer stress can yield an accurate depiction of the state of the ocean, as well as the atmosphere above it. Through the use of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we took a look at how these features changed over time in a simulation spanning the historical period from 1958 to 2018 in the Arctic Ocean north of 60° N. Making use of E3SM’s regional refinement capability to place higher resolution in regions of interest, the E3SM-Arctic configuration has ~10 km resolution in the ocean and sea ice components in this region, coarsening up to ~60 km outside of the Arctic (Veneziani et al. 2022). In particular, we narrowly focused on the benthic kinetic energy levels, and how trends changed over time. To validate the fidelity of the E3SM model, we compared model current speed outputs over a 369-day period in the Bering Strait to actual recorded observations during this time period. Our analysis of the benthic kinetic energy mean, standard deviation, and trend throughout this time period can be used to characterize the effects of environmental impacts in the Arctic Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil moisture gradients strengthen mesoscale convective systems by increasing wind shear

Mesoscale convective systems are a class of storm linked to extensive flooding and other destructive hazards in many regions globally. In West Africa, soil moisture impacts provide a valuable source of predictability for mature storm hazards, but little is known about mature storm sensitivity to soil moisture in other climatic regions. Here we use a storm track dataset, satellite observations and reanalysis fields to investigate the response of mature storms to soil moisture in seven global storm hotspots—West Africa, India, South America, South Africa, Australia and the United States Great Plains. We demonstrate that mesoscale soil moisture gradients (~500 km) can enhance storms by driving increased vertical wind shear conditions, a crucial ingredient for storm organization, through the strengthening of atmospheric temperature gradients. This is evidenced by a 10–30% increase in precipitation feature size and rainfall for the largest storms on days with favourable soil moisture gradients compared with unfavourable gradients. Global simulations confirm that soil moisture gradients influence wind shear. The results demonstrate the importance of soil moisture feedbacks for accurate forecasting of mesoscale convective systems and future projections of extreme events under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Designing an Observing System to Study the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) of the Earth in the 2020s

Abstract Observations of planet Earth from space are a critical resource for science and society. Satellite measurements represent very large investments and United States (US) agencies organize their effort to maximize the return on that investment. The US National Research Council conducts a survey of Earth science and applications to prioritize observations for the coming decade. The most recent survey prioritized a visible to shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared imager to meet a range of needs for studying Surface Biology and Geology (SBG). SBG will be the premier integrated observatory for observing the emerging impacts of climate change by characterizing the diversity of plant life and resolving chemical and physiological signatures. It will address wildfire risk, behavior, and recovery as well as responses to hazards such as oil spills, toxic minerals in minelands, harmful algal blooms, landslides, and other geological hazards. The SBG team analyzed needed instrument characteristics (spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, measurement uncertainty) and assessed the cost, mass, power, volume, and risk of different architectures. We present an overview of the Research and Applications trade‐study analysis of algorithms, calibration and validation needs, and societal applications with specifics of substudies detailed in other articles in this special collection. We provide a value framework to converge from hundreds down to three candidate architectures recommended for development. The analysis identified valuable opportunities for international collaboration to increase the revisit frequency, adding value for all partners, leading to a clear measurement strategy for an observing system architecture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Survey and Modeling of Windblown Ejecta Deposits on Venus

Venus' thick atmosphere rotates in the same direction as the solid body, but ∼60 times faster. This atmospheric superrotation has produced dozens of windblown ejecta deposits (“parabolas”) on the surface of Venus. The formation and modification of parabolas is an interplay between impacts, aeolian modification, and atmospheric dynamics. We conducted a survey to explore the nature of these sedimentary surface features. First, we observe trends in parabolas' morphology that shed light on how they are deposited and gradated. Changes in the size and radar albedo of parabolas are likely linked to the height and density (respectively) of ejecta plumes at time of formation. Next, we discovered that parabolas show orientations inconsistent with present atmospheric dynamics. This discrepancy may record a change in these dynamics or geologically recent true polar wander at a rate of ∼1° Myr −1 , which is similar to that observed on Earth over the past century. These results highlight how overlapping observations at different radar wavelengths provide important insights into the history and character of geologic processes on Venus. Overall, atmospheric superrotation has probably persisted for at least the age of Venus' surface.

Venus↗

Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations

Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. While challenges remain, given the growing forced trends and the lengthening observational record, the climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. This review covers the state of the science on the ability of models to represent historical trends in the climate system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled and observed trends and how to move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this review discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources of discrepancies and the importance of future confrontations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Spin Change of Asteroid 2012 TC4 Probably by Radiation Torques

Asteroid 2012 TC4 is a small (∼10 m) near-Earth object that was observed during its Earth close approaches in 2012 and 2017. Earlier analyses of light curves revealed its excited rotation state. We collected all available photometric data from the two apparitions to reconstruct its rotation state and convex shape model. We show that light curves from 2012 and 2017 cannot be fitted with a single set of model parameters; the rotation and precession periods are significantly different for these two data sets, and they must have changed between or during the two apparitions. Nevertheless, we could fit all light curves with a dynamically self-consistent model assuming that the spin states of 2012 TC4 in 2012 and 2017 were different. To interpret our results, we developed a numerical model of its spin evolution in which we included two potentially relevant perturbations: (i) gravitational torque due to the Sun and Earth and (ii) radiation torque, known as the Yarkovsky–O’Keefe–Radzievskii–Paddack (YORP) effect. Despite our model simplicity, we found that the role of gravitational torques is negligible. Instead, we argue that the observed change of its spin state may be plausibly explained as a result of the YORP torque. To strengthen this interpretation, we verify that (i) the internal energy dissipation due to material inelasticity and (ii) an impact with a sufficiently large interplanetary particle are both highly unlikely causes of its observed spin state change. If true, this is the first case where the YORP effect has been detected for a tumbling body.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A Data-driven, Physics-based Transport Model of Solar Energetic Particles Accelerated by Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Propagating through the Solar Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

Abstract In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration, and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from a magnetohydrodynamic model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. SEP source particles are injected at the shock using the result of diffusive shock acceleration formulation from a characteristic obliquity-dependent injection from a heated solar wind thermal tail population. With several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, the model obtains the particle intensity at any location in interplanetary space through the rigorous solution to the time-dependent 5D focus transport equation in the phase space that includes perpendicular diffusion. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multispacecraft SEP observations at Earth and STEREO-B reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. The observations at STEREO-A can be reproduced by rescaling particle energy or modified energy dependence of particle diffusion coefficients. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Target Prioritization and Observing Strategies for the NEID Earth Twin Survey

NEID is a high-resolution optical spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5 m telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory and will soon join the new generation of extreme precision radial velocity instruments in operation around the world. We plan to use the instrument to conduct the NEID Earth Twin Survey (NETS) over the course of the next 5 years, collecting hundreds of observations of some of the nearest and brightest stars in an effort to probe the regime of Earth-mass exoplanets. Even if we take advantage of the extreme instrumental precision conferred by NEID, it will be difficult to disentangle the weak (∼10 cm s{sup −1}) signals induced by such low-mass, long-period exoplanets from stellar noise for all but the quietest host stars. In this work, we present a set of quantitative selection metrics which we use to identify an initial NETS target list consisting of stars conducive to the detection of exoplanets in the regime of interest. We also outline a set of observing strategies with which we aim to mitigate uncertainty contributions from intrinsic stellar variability and other sources of noise.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Conformer-Dependent Chemistry: Experimental Product Branching of the Vinyl Alcohol + OH + O 2 Reaction

The concentration of formic acid in Earth's tropo-sphere is underestimated by detailed chemical models compared to field observations. Phototautomerization of acetaldehyde to its less stable tautomer vinyl alcohol, followed by the OH-initiated oxidation of vinyl alcohol, has been proposed as a missing source of formic acid that improves the agreement between models and field measurements. Theoretical investigations of the OH + vinyl alcohol reaction in excess O 2 conclude that OH addition to the alpha carbon of vinyl alcohol produces formaldehyde + formic acid + OH, whereas OH addition to the β site leads to glycoaldehyde + HO 2 . Furthermore, these studies predict that the conformeric structure of vinyl alcohol controls the reaction pathway, with the anti-conformer of vinyl alcohol promoting α OH addition, whereas the syn-conformer promotes β addition. However, the two theoretical studies reach different conclusions regarding which set of products dominate. We studied this reaction using time-resolved multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometry to quantify the product branching fractions. Our results, supported by a detailed kinetic model, conclude that the glycoaldehyde product channel (arising mostly from syn-vinyl alcohol) dominates over formic acid production with a 3.6:1.0 branching ratio. Additionally, this result supports the conclusion of Lei et al. that conformer-dependent hydrogen bonding at the transition state for OH-addition controls the reaction outcome. As a result, tropospheric oxidation of vinyl alcohol creates less formic acid than recently thought, increasing again the discrepancy between models and field observations of Earth's formic acid budget.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Long-Term Science Goals with In Situ Observations at the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point L4

The Korean heliospheric community, led by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI), is currently assessing the viability of deploying a spacecraft at the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point L4 in collaboration with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The aim of this mission is to utilize a combination of remote sensing and in situ instruments for comprehensive observations, complementing the capabilities of the L1 and L5 observatories. The paper outlines long-term scientific objectives, underscoring the significance of multi-point in-situ observations to better understand critical heliospheric phenomena. These include coronal mass ejections, magnetic flux ropes, heliospheric current sheets, kinetic waves and instabilities, suprathermal electrons and solar energetic particle events, as well as remote detection of solar radiation phenomena. Furthermore, the mission’s significance in advancing space weather prediction and space radiation exposure assessment models through the integration of L4 observations is discussed. This article is concluded with an emphasis on the potential of L4 observations to propel advancements in heliospheric science.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Anthropogenic Aerosols Contribute to the Recent Decline in Precipitation Over the U.S. Southwest

Abstract The winter‐spring precipitation over the Southwestern United States (SWUS) decreased since 1980. It is frequently attributed to Pacific internal decadal variability, but recent studies found anthropogenic aerosols (AA) can also induce a transition to a negative Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) phase. We revisit the attribution of SWUS drying by quantifying the contributions of anthropogenically forced decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Applying a low‐frequency component analysis to observations, Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) all‐forcings and single‐forcing large ensembles, we find up to 42% of the observed precipitation trend to be related to the AA‐induced negative PDV‐like pattern, which is driven by the emission shift from the Western to the Eastern Hemisphere. In CESM2, other radiative forcings counteract the influence of AA, but it remains unclear whether the model correctly simulates this balance. This implies that the near‐future trajectories of these forcings, in particular Asian aerosols, are important for projections of SWUS precipitation.

Geology↗

Experimental Observation of a New Attenuation Mechanism in hcp ‐Metals That May Operate in the Earth's Inner Core

Abstract Seismic observations show the Earth's inner core has significant and unexplained variation in seismic attenuation with position, depth and direction. Interpreting these observations is difficult without knowledge of the visco‐ or anelastic dissipation processes active in iron under inner core conditions. Here, a previously unconsidered attenuation mechanism is observed in zinc, a low pressure analog ofhcp‐iron, during small strain sinusoidal deformation experiments. The experiments were performed in a deformation‐DIA combined with X‐radiography, at seismic frequencies (∼0.003–0.1 Hz), high pressure and temperatures up to ∼80% of melting temperature. Significant dissipation (0.077 ≤ Q −1 (ω) ≤ 0.488) is observed along with frequency dependent softening of zinc's Young's modulus and an extremely small activation energy for creep (⩽7 kJ mol −1 ). In addition, during sinusoidal deformation the original microstructure is replaced by one with a reduced dislocation density and small, uniform, grain size. This combination of behavior collectively reflects a mode of deformation called “internal stress superplasticity”; this deformation mechanism is unique to anisotropic materials and activated by cyclic loading generating large internal stresses. Here we observe a new form of internal stress superplasticity, which we name as “elastic strain mismatch superplasticity.” In it the large stresses are caused by the compressional anisotropy. If this mechanism is also active inhcp‐iron and the Earth's inner‐core it will be a contributor to inner‐core observed seismic attenuation and constrain the maximum inner‐core grain‐size to ≲10 km.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗