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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

OGLE-2018-BLG-0677Lb: A Super-Earth Near the Galactic Bulge

We report the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-0677. A small feature in the light curve of the event leads to the discovery that the lens is a star–planet system. Although there are two degenerate solutions that could not be distinguished for this event, both lead to a similar planet-host mass ratio. We perform a Bayesian analysis based on a Galactic model to obtain the properties of the system and find that the planet corresponds to a super-Earth/sub-Neptune with a mass of M{sub planet}=3.96{sub −2.66}{sup +5.88}M{sub ⊕}. The host star has a mass of M{sub host}=0.12{sub −0.08}{sup +0.14} M{sub ⊙}. The projected separation for the inner and outer solutions are 0.63{sub −0.17}{sup +0.20} au and 0.72{sub −0.19}{sup +0.23} au respectively. At Δχ{sup 2}=χ{sup 2}(1L1S)−χ{sup 2}(2L1S)=46, this is by far the lowest Δχ {sup 2} for any securely detected microlensing planet to date, a feature that is closely connected to the fact that it is detected primarily via a “dip” rather than a “bump.”.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Scalable Real-Time Data Assimilation Framework for Predicting Turbulent Atmosphere Dynamics

AI-based foundation models like FourCastNet, GraphCast are revolutionizing weather and climate predictions but are not yet ready for operational use. Their limitation lies in the absence of a data assimilation system to incorporate real-time Earth system observations, crucial for accurately forecasting events like tropical cyclones. To overcome these obstacles, we introduce a generic real-time data assimilation framework and demonstrate its end-to-end performance on the Frontier supercomputer. This framework comprises two primary modules: an ensemble score filter (EnSF), which significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art data assimilation method, and a vision transformer-based surrogate capable of real-time adaptation through the integration of observational data. We demonstrate both the strong and weak scaling of our framework up to 1024 GPUs on the Exascale supercomputer, Frontier. Our results not only illustrate the framework's exceptional scalability on high-performance computing systems, but also demonstrate the importance of supercomputers in real-time data assimilation for weather and climate predictions.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations

Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.

Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emulation of seismic-phase traveltimes with machine learning

SUMMARY We present a machine learning (ML) method for emulating seismic-phase traveltimes that are computed using a global-scale 3-D earth model and physics-based ray tracing. Accurate traveltime predictions based on 3-D earth models are known to reduce the bias of event location estimates, increase our ability to assign phase labels to seismic detections and associate detections to events. However, practical use of 3-D models is challenged by slow computational speed and the unwieldiness of pre-computed lookup tables that are often large and have prescribed computational grids. In this work, we train a ML emulator using pre-computed traveltimes, resulting in a compact and computationally fast way to approximate traveltimes that are based on a 3-D earth model. Our model is trained using approximately 850 million P-wave traveltimes that are based on the global LLNL-G3D-JPS model, which was developed for more accurate event location. The training-set consists of traveltimes between 10 393 global seismic stations and randomly sampled event locations that provide a prescribed, distance-dependent geographic sample density for each station. Prediction accuracy is dependent on event-station distance and whether the station was included in the training set. For stations included in the training set the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the difference between traveltimes computed using ray tracing through the 3-D model and the ML emulator for local, regional, and teleseismic distances are 0.090, 0.125 and 0.121 s, respectively. For tested station locations not included in the training set, MAD values for the three distance ranges increase to 0.173, 0.219 and 0.210 s, respectively. Empirical traveltime residuals for a global reference data are indistinguishable when ML emulation or the 3-D model is used to compute traveltimes. This result holds regardless of whether the recording station is used in ML training or not.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Essential Role of Westerly Wind Bursts in ENSO Dynamics and Extreme Events Quantified in Model “Wind Stress Shaving” Experiments

Abstract Westerly wind bursts (WWBs)—brief but strong westerly wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific—are believed to play an important role in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, but quantifying their effects is challenging. Here, we investigate the cumulative effects of WWBs on ENSO characteristics, including the occurrence of extreme El Niño events, via modified coupled model experiments within Community Earth System Model (CESM1) in which we progressively reduce the impacts of wind stress anomalies associated with model-generated WWBs. In these “wind stress shaving” experiments we limit momentum transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean above a preset threshold, thus “shaving off” wind bursts. To reduce the tropical Pacific mean state drift, both westerly and easterly wind bursts are removed, although the changes are dominated by WWB reduction. As we impose progressively stronger thresholds, both ENSO amplitude and the frequency of extreme El Niño decrease, and ENSO becomes less asymmetric. The warming center of El Niño shifts westward, indicating less frequent and weaker eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Removing most wind burst–related wind stress anomalies reduces ENSO mean amplitude by 22%. The essential role of WWBs in the development of extreme El Niño events is highlighted by the suppressed eastward migration of the western Pacific warm pool and hence a weaker Bjerknes feedback under wind shaving. Overall, our results reaffirm the importance of WWBs in shaping the characteristics of ENSO and its extreme events and imply that WWB changes with global warming could influence future ENSO.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Extreme Precipitation in the United States in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model: Investigating the Importance of Representing Convective Intensity versus Dynamic Structure (Final Report)

Weather events that produce extreme precipitation are associated with severe flooding and winds that result in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in damages annually in the United States (U.S.). This project aims to improve understanding of the small- and large-scale processes that govern these events and improve our ability to project changes in these extreme events under the influences of natural variability and human activities. We focus on two promising directions in the development of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to investigate the tradeoffs between resolving the convective-scale processes that control the intensity versus the intermediate-scale processes that control the dynamic structure of the most prominent extreme precipitation events that impact the U.S. throughout the year (i.e., mesoscale convective systems, tropical cyclones, and extratropical cyclone).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CROCUS Weather Data at University of Illinois - Chicago Tower

Vaisala WXT sensor is an all-in-one weather instrument that provides 6 of the most important weather parameters: barometric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and direction. Temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and rainfall are sampled at 1 second frequency, while wind speed/direction is measured at ten per second (10Hz) frequency. These measurements are useful for looking at characterizing local weather, identifying unique weather events, and studying local turbulence, especially given the high temporal resolution of the wind measurements. These measurements are collected at the University of Illinois in Chicago, Illinois, on the meteorological tower near the greenhouse on campus. Data is available in the netCDF data format, we encourage data users review documentation through Project Pythia to understand how to work with netCDF data https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html. File naming convention includes the project (CROCUS), location (UIC), data level (raw, a1), date (year, month, day), and hour (0000).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CROCUS Weather Data at Chicago State University Prairie Site

Vaisala WXT sensor is an all-in-one weather instrument that provides 6 of the most important weather parameters: barometric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and direction. Temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and rainfall are sampled at 1 second frequency, while wind speed/direction is measured at ten per second (10Hz) frequency. These measurements are useful for looking at characterizing local weather, identifying unique weather events, and studying local turbulence, especially given the high temporal resolution of the wind measurements. These measurements are collected at Chicago State University (CSU) at a prarie site on campus in Chicago, Illinois. Data is available in the netCDF data format, we encourage data users review documentation through Project Pythia to understand how to work with netCDF data https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html. The data is aggregated into daily frequency to make it easier to process multiple days, and compress the higher-resolution fields. Each file contains one day's worth of data (24 hours, starting at 0000 UTC). File naming convention includes the project (CROCUS), location (CSU), data level (raw, a1), date (year, month, day), and hour (0000).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CROCUS Weather Data at Argonne National Laboratory Prairie Site

Vaisala WXT sensor is an all-in-one weather instrument that provides 6 of the most important weather parameters: barometric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and direction. Temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and rainfall are sampled at 1 second frequency, while wind speed/direction is measured at ten per second (10Hz) frequency. These measurements are useful for looking at characterizing local weather, identifying unique weather events, and studying local turbulence, especially given the high temporal resolution of the wind measurements. These measurements are collected at the Argonne Testbed for Multiscale Observational Science (ATMOS), a prairie field site at Argonne National Laboratory in Lemont, Illinois. Data is available in the netCDF data format, we encourage data users review documentation through Project Pythia to understand how to work with netCDF data https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html. The data is aggregated into daily frequency to make it easier to process multiple days, and compress the higher-resolution fields. Each file contains one day's worth of data (24 hours, starting at 0000 UTC). File naming convention includes the project (CROCUS), location (atmos), data level (raw, a1), date (year, month, day), and hour (0000).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Methodological Overview of Seismic Analysis for Nuclear Event Detection

Underground explosions generate potentially detectable signatures, including energy waves that travel through the Earth’s subsurface (i.e., seismic waves), low-frequency sound waves (i.e., infrasound and hydroacoustic waves), and radioactive gases and/or particles that might leak from the test cavity (if the event was nuclear). There can also be intelligence indicators of a test, such as observations of modified patterns of life and activity at a suspected test site. If all of these detectable signatures and intelligence indicators are present and self-consistent, then analysts have high confidence in classifying a signature generating event as an explosion. However, because only partial information about an event is likely to be available, determining whether an event was natural (e.g., an earthquake or landslide) or manmade (e.g., a chemical or nuclear explosion) is much more challenging. This primer describes how one category of event signatures—seismic signatures—can augment event analyses. While universities and government organizations have generated detailed technical descriptions of seismic analytic techniques, we seek to translate seismic event analysis for a broad, non-technical audience. When the geologic conditions near an event are well-characterized, seismic data can be used to calculate critical information, such as event location and depth, with relatively high accuracy. Moreover, specific features within seismic datasets can help determine whether an event was an explosion. However, a key challenge in seismic analysis is that geologic site conditions are often poorly characterized, complicating the ability to discern the true nature of the event. To overcome this challenge, geologists answer a series of questions (discussed in section 1) to guide seismic event analysis and determine the most probable nature of an event. As more information is gathered during each analytic step, confidence grows regarding the nature of the event. Section 2 addresses uncertainties in seismic analysis and the vital nature of high-fidelity geologic data for accurate seismic event analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of the Earth’s Density Profile on Atmospheric Neutrino Oscillations

As atmospheric neutrinos traverse the Earth, the matter potential influences their oscillation probabilities in intricate ways, enhancing and suppressing the conversion of one neutrino’s flavor to another along the propagation. Comprehending their behavior within Earth’s complex density profile, primarily described by the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM) [1], is essential for accurately describing oscillations and determining expected atmospheric neutrino event rates in the DUNE Far Detector. In this study, we address this challenge by considering an ensemble of Earth models constrained by astronomical measurements of the planet’s mass and moment of inertia. We evaluate how variations in densities and layer boundaries can affect oscillation probabilities and event rates, and what implications this could have on various physics analyses.

Ismerio Oliveira, Marcelo [Rio de Janeiro, Pont. U↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fragile Earth: AI for Climate Mitigation, Adaptation, and Environmental Justice

The Fragile EarthWorkshop is a recurring event that gathers the research community to find and explore howdata science can measure and progress climate and social issues, following the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).Fragile Earth 2022: AI for Climate Mitigation, Adaptation, and Environmental Justice is a workshop taking place as part of the ACM's KDD 2022 Conference on research in knowledge discovery and data mining and their applications. The dates for the Conference are August 14-18, 2022.

Abe, Naoki↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States

Post-wildfire extreme rainfall events can have destructive impacts in the western United States. Using two climate model large ensembles, we assess the future risk of extreme fire weather events being followed by extreme rainfall in this region. By mid-21st century, in a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), we report large increases in the number of extreme fire weather events followed within 1 year by at least one extreme rainfall event. By 2100, the frequency of these compound events increases by 100% in California and 700% in the Pacific Northwest in the Community Earth System Model v1 Large Ensemble. We further project that more than 90% of extreme fire weather events in California, Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest will be followed by at least three spatially colocated extreme rainfall events within five years. Our results point to a future with substantially increased post-fire hydrologic risks across much of the western United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Low-Altitude Atmospheric Turbulence Models for Aircraft Aeroelasticity

We investigate the dynamic aeroelastic response of large but slow aircraft in low-altitude atmospheric turbulence. To this end, three turbulence models of increasing fidelity, namely, the one-dimensional von Kármán model, the two-dimensional Kaimal model and full three-dimensional wind fields extracted from large-eddy simulations (LES) are used to simulate ambient turbulence near the ground. Load calculations and flight trajectory predictions are conducted for a representative high-aspect-ratio wing aircraft, using a fully coupled nonlinear flight dynamics/aeroelastic model, when it operates in background atmospheric turbulence generated by the aforementioned models. Comparison of load envelopes and spectral content, on vehicles of varying flexibility, shows strong dependency between the selected turbulence model and aircraft aeroelastic response (e.g. 58% difference in the predicted magnitude of the wing root bending moment between LES and von Kármán models). This is mainly due to the presence of large flow structures at low altitudes that have comparable dimensions to the vehicle, and which despite the relatively small wind speeds within the Earth boundary layer, result in overall high load events for slow-moving vehicles. Results show that one-dimensional models that do not capture those effects provide fairly non-conservative load estimates and are unsuitable for very flexible airframe design.

atmospheric turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of present-day extreme precipitation over the United States: an inter-comparison of convection and dynamic permitting configurations of E3SMv1

Abstract Accurate simulation of the present-day characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation at regional scales remains a challenge for Earth system models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model physics such as convective parameterization (CP), and coarse resolution. High horizontal resolution (HR, ∼25 km) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF, i.e. replacing conventional CP with embedded km-scale cloud-resolving models) are two promising directions that could help improve the interaction between subgrid-scale physical processes and large-scale climate. Here, we evaluate simulated extreme precipitation over the United States (US) across three configurations (i.e. low-resolution [LR], HR, and MMF) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and intercompare them against two gridded observation datasets (climate prediction center daily US precipitation and integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement). We assess the model’s ability to simulate very heavy seasonal precipitation (illustrated by the difference between the 99th and 90th percentile values) as well as the spatial distributions of several extreme precipitation indices defined by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. Our results show that both the dry (i.e. consecutive dry days (CDD)) and wet (i.e. consecutive wet days, maximum 5 day precipitation, and very wet days) extremes evaluated herein show some improvement as well as degradation with MMF and HR relative to LR. These results vary across seasons and US subregions. For instance, only the very heavy precipitation of winter is improved with MMF and HR. Both configurations alleviate the well-known drizzling bias evident in LR across both winter and summer in many parts of the US, largely due to the overall improvement in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Additionally, our results suggest that while E3SMv1-MMF has higher intensity rates when it does rain, it has too many CDD during the summer, contributing to a low mean precipitation bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

CROCUS Sodar Measurements of Lower Atmospheric Wind Profiles at Argonne Testbed for Multiscale Observational Science (ATMOS) Site

The Scintec MFAS Sodar (Multiple-Frequency Acoustic Sounder) is an autonomous, ground-based acoustic remote sensing system designed to measure vertical profiles of horizontal wind speed, wind direction, and vertical velocity in the lower atmosphere. The instrument transmits sequences of acoustic pulses and detects the Doppler-shifted sound waves backscattered by small-scale temperature and velocity fluctuations caused by atmospheric turbulence. From these Doppler shifts, the system derives three-dimensional wind vectors by combining radial velocities from multiple beam orientations.The MFAS Sodar operates with a first usable range gate beginning at approximately 30 m above ground level and a configurable vertical resolution of 10 m. Under favorable acoustic conditions, the system provides wind profiles extending up to 600 m above ground level. Measurements are processed into 15-minute averaged profiles containing wind speed, direction, vertical velocity, and diagnostic quantities such as signal-to-noise ratio and echo strength.This dataset was collected at the Argonne Testbed for Multiscale Observational Science (ATMOS) facility in Lemont, Illinois, as part of DOE's CROCUS Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL) initiative. The purpose of these observations is to characterize the vertical wind structure and boundary-layer evolution across the urban–suburban gradient of the greater Chicago region. In particular, these data are intended to improve understanding of how local meteorology, such as lake-breeze penetration, nocturnal jets, and daytime mixing, varies between the densely built urban core and the suburban periphery. The MFAS observations provide critical context for evaluating high-resolution model simulations and for integrating with complementary lidar, radar, and in-situ meteorological measurements within the broader CROCUS UIFL network.All data are archived in NetCDF (Network Common Data Form) format and include wind and diagnostic parameters. The files can be accessed and analyzed using standard software that supports NetCDF, such as Python (e.g., xarray, netCDF4), MATLAB, R (e.g., ncdf4, raster), or Panoply (NASA’s NetCDF visualization application).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Project Earthrise: Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of in VIVO Planetary Health

The “Earthrise” photograph, taken on the 1968 Apollo 8 mission, became one of the most significant images of the 20th Century. It triggered a profound shift in environmental awareness and the potential for human unity—inspiring the first Earth Day in 1970. Taking inspiration from these events 50 years later, we initiated Project Earthrise at our 2020 annual conference of inVIVO Planetary Health. This builds on the emergent concept of planetary health, which provides a shared narrative to integrate rich and diverse approaches from all aspects of society towards shared solutions to global challenges. The acute catastrophe of the COVID-19 pandemic has drawn greater attention to many other interconnected global health, environmental, social, spiritual, and economic problems that have been underappreciated or neglected for decades. This is accelerating opportunities for greater collaborative action, as many groups now focus on the necessity of a “Great Transition”. While ambitious integrative efforts have never been more important, it is imperative to apply these with mutualistic value systems as a compass, as we seek to make wiser choices. Project Earthrise is our contribution to this important process. This underscores the imperative for creative ecological solutions to challenges in all systems, on all scales with advancing global urbanization in the digital age—for personal, environmental, economic and societal health alike. At the same time, our agenda seeks to equally consider our social and spiritual ecology as it does natural ecology. Revisiting the inspiration of “Earthrise”, we welcome diverse perspectives from across all dimensions of the arts and the sciences, to explore novel solutions and new normative values. Building on academic rigor, we seek to place greater value on imagination, kindness and mutualism as we address our greatest challenges, for the health of people, places and planet.

interdependence↗