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Geodetic measurement of deformation in the Loma Prieta, California earthquake with very long baseline interferometry

VLBI measurements were conducted immediately after the Loma Prieta earthquake and compared with VLBI gathered at Monterey, San Francisco, and Point Reyes since 1983 to obtain preearthquake deformation rates with respect to a North American reference frame. The estimated displacements at Monterey and San Francisco are consistent with the static displacements predicted on the basis of a coseismic slip model in which slip on the southern segment is shallower than slip on the northern segment of the fault rupture. Cartesian positions are presented at epoch 1990.0 of a set of VLBI fiducial stations and the three mobile sites in the earthquake's vicinity.

Clark, T. A.↗

A summary of ERTS data applications in Alaska

ERTS has proven to be an exceedingly useful tool for the preparation of urgently needed resource surveys in Alaska. For this reason the wide utilization of ERTS data by federal, state and industrial agencies in Alaska is increasingly directed toward the solution of operational problems in resource inventories, environmental surveys, and land use planning. Examples of some applications are discussed in connection with surveys of potential agricultural lands; mapping of predicted archaeological sites; permafrost terrain and aufeis mapping; snow melt enhancement from Prudhoe Bay roads; geologic interpretations correlated ith possible new petroleum fields, with earthquake activity, and with plate tectonic motion along the Denali fault system; hydrology in monitoring surging glaciers and the break-up characteristics of the Chena River watershed; sea-ice morphology correlated with marine mammal distribution; and coastal sediment plume circulation patterns.

Miller, J. M.↗

A fractal model for crustal deformation

It is hypothesized that crustal deformation occurs on a scale-invariant matrix of faults. For simplicity, a two-dimensional pattern of hexagons on which strike-slip faulting occurs is considered. The behavior of the system is controlled by a single parameter, the fractal dimension. Deformation occurs on all scales of faults. The fractal dimension determines the fraction of the total displacement that occurs on the first-order or primary faults. The value of the fractal dimension can be obtained from the frequency-magnitude relation for earthquakes. The results are applied to the San Andreas fault system in central California. Earthquake studies give D = 1.90. The main strand of the San Andreas fault is associated with the primary faults of the fractal system. It is predicted that the relative velocity across the main strand is 2.93 cm/yr. The remainder of the relative velocity of 5.5 cm/yr between the Pacific and North American plates occurs on higher-order faults. The predicted value is in reasonably good agreement with the value 3.39 + or - 0.29 cm/yr obtained from geological studies.

Turcotte, D. L.↗

Modeling of periodic great earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: Effects of nonlinear crustal rheology

We analyze the cycle of great earthquakes along the San Andreas fault with a finite element numerical model of deformation in a crust with a nonlinear viscoelastic rheology. The viscous component of deformation has an effective viscosity that depends exponentially on the inverse absolute temperature and nonlinearity on the shear stress; the elastic deformation is linear. Crustal thickness and temperature are constrained by seismic and heat flow data for California. The models are for anti plane strain in a 25-km-thick crustal layer having a very long, vertical strike-slip fault; the crustal block extends 250 km to either side of the fault. During the earthquake cycle that lasts 160 years, a constant plate velocity v(sub p)/2 = 17.5 mm yr is applied to the base of the crust and to the vertical end of the crustal block 250 km away from the fault. The upper half of the fault is locked during the interseismic period, while its lower half slips at the constant plate velocity. The locked part of the fault is moved abruptly 2.8 m every 160 years to simulate great earthquakes. The results are sensitive to crustal rheology. Models with quartzite-like rheology display profound transient stages in the velocity, displacement, and stress fields. The predicted transient zone extends about 3-4 times the crustal thickness on each side of the fault, significantly wider than the zone of deformation in elastic models. Models with diabase-like rheology behave similarly to elastic models and exhibit no transient stages. The model predictions are compared with geodetic observations of fault-parallel velocities in northern and central California and local rates of shear strain along the San Andreas fault. The observations are best fit by models which are 10-100 times less viscous than a quartzite-like rheology. Since the lower crust in California is composed of intermediate to mafic rocks, the present result suggests that the in situ viscosity of the crustal rock is orders of magnitude less the rock viscosity determined in the laboratory.

Reches, Ze'ev↗

Deformation across the western United States: A local estimate of Pacific-North America transform deformation

We obtain a locally based estimate of Pacific-North America relative motion and an uncertainly in this estimate by integrating deformation rate along three different paths leading west across southwestern North America from east of the Rio Grande Rift to near the continental escarpment. Data are primarily Quatenary geologic slip rates estimates, and resulting deformation determinations therefore are 'instantaneous' in a geologic sense but 'long term' with respect to earthquake cycles. We deduce a rate of motion of the Pacific plane relative to North America that is 48 +/- 2 mm/yr, a rate indistinguishable from that predicted by the global kinematics models RM2 and NUVEL-1; however, we obtain an orientation that is 5-9 deg counterclockwise of these models. A more westerly motion of the Pacific plate, with respect to North America, is calculated from all three paths. The relatively westerly motion of the Pacific plate is accomodated by deformation in the North American continent that includes slip on relatively counterclockwise-oriented strike-slip faults (including the San Andreas fault), whic is especially relevant in and south of the Transverse Ranges, and a margin-normal component of net extension across the continent, which is especially relevant north of the Transverse Ranges. Deformation of the SW United States occurs in regionally coherent domains within the style of deformation is approximately uniform.

Humphreys, Eugene D.↗

Mineral resources, geological structure, and landform surveys

Diagnostic ERTS imagery has been used to pinpoint surface conditions associated with known mining districts. These include enhancements which depict hitherto unrecognized surface alteration and allow analysis of ore-controlling fractures distribution in a regional context. ERTS has likewise provided observational data containing previously unrecognized surface anomalies in large oil-producing basins which correlate closely with known oil fields. These observational data offer promise of providing new and powerful techniques for oil exploration, especially if further work using more sophisticated enhancement-processing proves capable of emphasizing the anomalies. ERTS is showing a better-than-anticipated potential for producing accurate small-scale (large-area) geologic maps, often containing details that were previously not recorded on similar regional maps. The maps produced from ERTS imagery can be prepared more effectively than previously possible, mainly because of the synoptic, multispectral, and repetitive character of ERTS data. ERTS has also provided extensive information on possible geologic hazards. Many new fractures have been identified in several regions of the Pacific Coast seismic belt that have histories of recent earthquakes. This has obvious implications for engineering projects such as dams, aqueducts, and transportation routes. In the mid-continent area, ERTS data have been used to predict zones of rooffall danger in a working coal mine from newly discovered lineations (probably fractures) used as indicators of hazards.

Short, N. M.↗

Source phase shift - A new phenomenon in wave propagation due to anelasticity

The free oscillations of an anelastic earth model due to earthquakes were calculated directly by means of the correspondence principle from wave propagation theory. The formulation made it possible to find the source phase which is not predictable using first order perturbation theory. The predicted source phase was largest for toroidal modes with source components proportional to the radial strain scalar instead of the radial displacement scalar. The source phase increased in relation to the overtone number. In addition, large relative differences were found in the excitation modulus and the phase when the elastic excitation was small. The effect was sufficient to bias estimates of source properties and elastic structure.

Buland, R.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, September 2006

Topics covered include: Improving Thermomechanical Properties of SiC/SiC Composites; Aerogel/Particle Composites for Thermoelectric Devices; Patches for Repairing Ceramics and Ceramic- Matrix Composites; Lower-Conductivity Ceramic Materials for Thermal-Barrier Coatings; An Alternative for Emergency Preemption of Traffic Lights; Vehicle Transponder for Preemption of Traffic Lights; Automated Announcements of Approaching Emergency Vehicles; Intersection Monitor for Traffic-Light-Preemption System; Full-Duplex Digital Communication on a Single Laser Beam; Stabilizing Microwave Frequency of a Photonic Oscillator; Microwave Oscillators Based on Nonlinear WGM Resonators; Pointing Reference Scheme for Free-Space Optical Communications Systems; High-Level Performance Modeling of SAR Systems; Spectral Analysis Tool 6.2 for Windows; Multi-Platform Avionics Simulator; Silicon-Based Optical Modulator with Ferroelectric Layer; Multiplexing Transducers Based on Tunnel-Diode Oscillators; Scheduling with Automated Resolution of Conflicts; Symbolic Constraint Maintenance Grid; Discerning Trends in Performance Across Multiple Events; Magnetic Field Solver; Computing for Aiming a Spaceborne Bistatic- Radar Transmitter; 4-Vinyl-1,3-Dioxolane-2-One as an Additive for Li-Ion Cells; Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts; STRANAL-PMC Version 2.0; Micromechanics and Piezo Enhancements of HyperSizer; Single-Phase Rare-Earth Oxide/Aluminum Oxide Glasses; Tilt/Tip/Piston Manipulator with Base-Mounted Actuators; Measurement of Model Noise in a Hard-Wall Wind Tunnel; Loci-STREAM Version 0.9; The Synergistic Engineering Environment; Reconfigurable Software for Controlling Formation Flying; More About the Tetrahedral Unstructured Software System; Computing Flows Using Chimera and Unstructured Grids; Avoiding Obstructions in Aiming a High-Gain Antenna; Analyzing Aeroelastic Stability of a Tilt-Rotor Aircraft; Tracking Positions and Attitudes of Mars Rovers; Stochastic Evolutionary Algorithms for Planning Robot Paths; Compressible Flow Toolbox; Rapid Aeroelastic Analysis of Blade Flutter in Turbomachines; General Flow-Solver Code for Turbomachinery Applications; Code for Multiblock CFD and Heat-Transfer Computations; Rotating-Pump Design Code; Covering a Crucible with Metal Containing Channels; Repairing Fractured Bones by Use of Bioabsorbable Composites; Kalman Filter for Calibrating a Telescope Focal Plane; Electronic Absolute Cartesian Autocollimator; Fiber-Optic Gratings for Lidar Measurements of Water Vapor; Simulating Responses of Gravitational-Wave Instrumentation; SOFTC: A Software Correlator for VLBI; Progress in Computational Simulation of Earthquakes; Database of Properties of Meteors; Computing Spacecraft Solar-Cell Damage by Charged Particles; Thermal Model of a Current-Carrying Wire in a Vacuum; Program for Analyzing Flows in a Complex Network; Program Predicts Performance of Optical Parametric Oscillators; Processing TES Level-1B Data; Automated Camera Calibration; Tracking the Martian CO2 Polar Ice Caps in Infrared Images; Processing TES Level-2 Data; SmaggIce Version 1.8; Solving the Swath Segment Selection Problem; The Spatial Standard Observer; Less-Complex Method of Classifying MPSK; Improvement in Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation of Data; Using Heaps in Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation of Data; Tool for Statistical Analysis and Display of Landing Sites; Automated Assignment of Proposals to Reviewers; Array-Pattern-Match Compiler for Opportunistic Data Analysis; Pre-Processor for Compression of Multispectral Image Data; Compressing Image Data While Limiting the Effects of Data Losses; Flight Operations Analysis Tool; Improvement in Visual Target Tracking for a Mobile Robot; Software for Simulating Air Traffic; Automated Vectorization of Decision-Based Algorithms; Grayscale Optical Correlator Workbench; "One-Stop Shopping" for Ocean Remote-Sensing and Model Data; State Analysis Database Tool; Generating CAHV and CAHVOmages with Shadows in ROAMS; Improving UDP/IP Transmission Without Increasing Congestion; FORTRAN Versions of Reformulated HFGMC Codes; Program for Editing Spacecraft Command Sequences; Flight-Tested Prototype of BEAM Software; Mission Scenario Development Workbench; Marsviewer; Tool for Analysis and Reduction of Scientific Data; ASPEN Version 3.0; Secure Display of Space-Exploration Images; Digital Front End for Wide-Band VLBI Science Receiver; Multifunctional Tanks for Spacecraft; Lightweight, Segmented, Mostly Silicon Telescope Mirror; Assistant for Analyzing Tropical-Rain-Mapping Radar Data; and Anion-Intercalating Cathodes for High-Energy- Density Cells.

Source record↗

Postseismic surface deformations due to lithospheric and asthenospheric viscoelasticity

A model is proposed for post seismic surface deformations attributing them to lithospheric and asthenospheric viscoelasticity. The model predicts that the deformations due to lithospheric viscoelasticity depend on the ratio of the effective shear modulus acting long after the lithospheric viscoelastic relaxation to that acting immediately following the earthquake. While such deformations are generally smaller than those associated with asthenospheric viscoelasticity, they occur on a shorter time scale and may be in opposite direction to both the motion occurring at the time of the earthquake and that occurring as the asthenospheric relaxation occurs.

Cohen, S. C.↗

Postseismic surface deformations due to lithospheric and asthenospheric viscoelasticity

This paper proposes a model for postseismic surface deformations by attributing them to lithospheric and asthenospheric viscoelasticity. The model predicts that the deformations due to lithospheric viscoelasticity depend on the decrease in the effective shear modulus acting long after the lithospheric relaxation compared to that acting immediately following the earthquake. While such deformations are generally smaller than those associated with asthenospheric viscoelasticity, they occur on a shorter time scale and may be in opposite direction to both the motion occurring at the time of the earthquake and that occurring as the asthenospheric relaxation occurs.

Cohen, S. C.↗

Ice Mass Fluctuations and Earthquake Hazard

In south central Alaska, tectonic strain rates are high in a region that includes large glaciers undergoing ice wastage over the last 100-150 years [Sauber et al., 2000; Sauber and Molnia, 2004]. In this study we focus on the region referred to as the Yakataga segment of the Pacific-North American plate boundary zone in Alaska. In this region, the Bering and Malaspina glacier ablation zones have average ice elevation decreases from 1-3 meters/year (see summary and references in Molnia, 2005). The elastic response of the solid Earth to this ice mass decrease alone would cause several mm/yr of horizontal motion and uplift rates of up to 10-12 mm/yr. In this same region observed horizontal rates of tectonic deformation range from 10 to 40 mm/yr to the north-northwest and the predicted tectonic uplift rates range from -2 mm/year near the Gulf of Alaska coast to 12mm/year further inland [Savage and Lisowski, 1988; Ma et al, 1990; Sauber et al., 1997, 2000, 2004; Elliot et al., 2005]. The large ice mass changes associated with glacial wastage and surges perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. The associated incremental stress change may enhance or inhibit earthquake occurrence. We report recent (seasonal to decadal) ice elevation changes derived from data from NASA's ICESat satellite laser altimeter combined with earlier DEM's as a reference surface to illustrate the characteristics of short-term ice elevation changes [Sauber et al., 2005, Muskett et al., 2005]. Since we are interested in evaluating the effect of ice changes on faulting potential, we calculated the predicted surface displacement changes and incremental stresses over a specified time interval and calculated the change in the fault stability margin using the approach given by Wu and Hasegawa [1996]. Additionally, we explored the possibility that these ice mass fluctuations altered the seismic rate of background seismicity. Although we primarily focus on evaluating the influence of ice mass changes since the end of the little Ice Age, the study is partially motivated by paleoseismic evidence from Yakataga and Kodiak regions which suggests that earlier glacier retreat may be associated with large earthquakes [Sauber et al., 2000; Carver et al., 2003].

Sauber, J.↗

Thermochemistry of dense hydrous magnesium silicates

Recent experimental investigations under mantle conditions have identified a suite of dense hydrous magnesium silicate (DHMS) phases that could be conduits to transport water to at least the 660 km discontinuity via mature, relatively cold, subducting slabs. Water released from successive dehydration of these phases during subduction could be responsible for deep focus earthquakes, mantle metasomatism and a host of other physico-chemical processes central to our understanding of the earth's deep interior. In order to construct a thermodynamic data base that can delineate and predict the stability ranges for DHMS phases, reliable thermochemical and thermophysical data are required. One of the major obstacles in calorimetric studies of phases synthesized under high pressure conditions has been limitation due to the small (less than 5 mg) sample mass. Our refinement of calorimeter techniques now allow precise determination of enthalpies of solution of less than 5 mg samples of hydrous magnesium silicates. For example, high temperature solution calorimetry of natural talc (Mg(0.99) Fe(0.01)Si4O10(OH)2), periclase (MgO) and quartz (SiO2) yield enthalpies of drop solution at 1044 K to be 592.2 (2.2), 52.01 (0.12) and 45.76 (0.4) kJ/mol respectively. The corresponding enthalpy of formation from oxides at 298 K for talc is minus 5908.2 kJ/mol agreeing within 0.1 percent to literature values.

Bose, Kunal↗

Earthquake source mechanisms and transform fault tectonics in the Gulf of California

The source parameters of 19 large earthquakes in the Gulf of California were determined from inversions of long-period P and SH waveforms. The goal was to understand the recent slip history of this dominantly transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates as well as the effect on earthquake characteristics of the transition from young oceanic to continental lithosphere. For the better recorded transform events, the fault strike is resolved to + or - 4 deg at 90 percent confidence. The slip vectors thus provide important constraints on the direction of relative plate motion. Most centroid depths are poorly resolved because of tradeoffs between depth and source time function. On the basis of waveform modeling, historical seismicity, and other factors, it is appropriate to divide the Gulf into three distinct zones. The difference in seismic character among the three zones is likely the result of differing levels of maturity of the processes of rifting, generation of oceanic crust, and formation of stable oceanic transform faults. The mechanism of an earthquake on the Tres Marias Escarpment is characterized by thrust faulting and likely indicates the direction of relative motion between the Rivera and North American plates. This mechanism requires revision in plate velocity models which predict strike slip motion at this location.

Goff, John A.↗

Feeling Gravity's Pull: Gravity Modeling. The Gravity Field of Mars

Most people take the constant presence of gravitys pull for granted. However, the Earth's gravitational strength actually varies from location to location. This variation occurs because mass, which influences an object's gravitational pull, is not evenly distributed within the planet. Changes in topography, such as glacial movement, an earthquake, or a rise in the ocean level, can subtly affect the gravity field. An accurate measurement of the Earth's gravity field helps us understand the distribution of mass beneath the surface. This insight can assist us in locating petroleum, mineral deposits, ground water, and other valuable substances. Gravity mapping can also help notice or verify changes in sea surface height and other ocean characteristics. Such changes may indicate climate change from polar ice melting and other phenomena. In addition, gravity mapping can indicate how land moves under the surface after earthquakes and other plate tectonic processes. Finally, changes in the Earth's gravity field might indicate a shift in water distribution that could affect agriculture, water supplies for population centers, and long-term weather prediction. Scientists can map out the Earth's gravity field by watching satellite orbits. When a satellite shifts in vertical position, it might be passing over an area where gravity changes in strength. Gravity is only one factor that may shape a satellite's orbital path. To derive a gravity measurement from satellite movement, scientists must remove other factors that might affect a satellite's position: 1. Drag from atmospheric friction. 2. Pressure from solar radiation as it heads toward Earth and. as it is reflected off the surface of the Earth 3. Gravitational pull from the Sun, the Moon, and other planets in the Solar System. 4. The effect of tides. 5. Relativistic effects. Scientists must also correct for the satellite tracking process. For example, the tracking signal must be corrected for refraction through the atmosphere of the Earth. Supercomputers can calculate the effect of gravity for specific locations in space following a mathematical process known as spherical harmonics, which quantifies the gravity field of a planetary body. The process is based on Laplace's fundamental differential equation of gravity. The accuracy of a spherical harmonic solution is rated by its degree and order. Minute variations in gravity are measured against the geoid, a surface of constant gravity acceleration at mean sea level. The geoid reference gravity model strength includes the central body gravitational attraction (9.8 m/sq s) and a geopotential variation in latitude partially caused by the rotation of the Earth. The rotational effect modifies the shape of the geoid to be more like an ellipsoid, rather than a perfect, circle. Variations of gravity strength from the ellipsoidal reference model are measured in units called milli-Galileos (mGals). One mGal equals 10(exp -5) m/sq s. Research projects have also measured the gravity fields of other planetary bodies, as noted in the user profile that follows. From this information, we may make inferences about our own planet's internal structure and evolution. Moreover, mapping the gravity fields of other planets can help scientists plot the most fuel-efficient course for spacecraft expeditions to those planets.

Lemoine, Frank↗

Terrestrial Single-Station Analog for Constraining the Martian Core and Deep Interior: Implications for InSight

We used a terrestrial single-station seismometer to quantify the uncertainty of InSight (INterior explorations using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) data for determining Martian core size. To mimic Martian seismicity, we formed a catalog using 917 terrestrial earthquakes, from which we randomly selected events. We stacked ScS amplitudes on modeled arrival times and searched for where ScS produced coherent seismic amplitudes. A core detection was defined by a coherent peak with small offset between predicted and user-selected arrival times. Iterating the detection algorithm with varying signal-to-noise (SNR) ranges and quantity of events determined the selection frequency of each model and quantified core depth uncertainty. Increasing the quantity of events reduced core depth uncertainty while increasing the recovery rate, while increasing event SNR had little effect. Including ScS2 multiples increased the recovery rate and reduced core depth uncertainty when we used low quantities of events. The most-frequent core depths varied by back azimuth, suggesting our method is sensitive to the presence of mantle heterogeneities. When we added 1° in source distance errors, core depth uncertainty increased by up to 11 km and recovery rates decreased by <5%. Altering epicentral distances by 25% added ~35 km of uncertainty and reduced recovery rates to <50% in some cases. From these experiments, we estimate that if InSight can detect five events with high location precision (<10% epicentral distance errors), that there is at least an 88% chance of core depth recovery using ScS alone with uncertainty in core depth approaching 18 km and decreasing as more events are located.

Marusiak, Angela G.↗

Terrestrial Single-Station Analog for Constraining the Martian Core and Deep Interior: Implications for InSight

We used a terrestrial single-station seismometer to quantify the uncertainty of InSight (INterior explorations using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) data for determining Martian core size. To mimic Martian seismicity, we formed a catalog using 917 terrestrial earthquakes, from which we randomly selected events. We stacked ScS amplitudes on modeled arrival times and searched for where ScS produced coherent seismic amplitudes. A core detection was defined by a coherent peak with small offset between predicted and user-selected arrival times. Iterating the detection algorithm with varying signal-to-noise (SNR) ranges and quantity of events determined the selection frequency of each model and quantified core depth uncertainty. Increasing the quantity of events reduced core depth uncertainty while increasing the recovery rate, while increasing event SNR had little effect. Including ScS2 multiples increased the recovery rate and reduced core depth uncertainty when we used low quantities of events. The most-frequent core depths varied by back azimuth, suggesting our method is sensitive to the presence of mantle heterogeneities. When we added 1° in source distance errors, core depth uncertainty increased by up to 11 km and recovery rates decreased by <5%. Altering epicentral distances by 25% added ~35 km of uncertainty and reduced recovery rates to <50% in some cases. From these experiments, we estimate that if InSight can detect five events with high location precision (< 10% epicentral distance errors), that there is at least an 88% chance of core depth recovery using ScS alone with uncertainty in core depth approaching 18 km and decreasing as more events are located.

Angela G Marusiak↗

Glacier Ice Mass Fluctuations and Fault Instability in Tectonically Active Southern Alaska

Across southern Alaska the northwest directed subduction of the Pacific plate is accompanied by accretion of the Yakutat terrane to continental Alaska. This has led to high tectonic strain rates and dramatic topographic relief of more than 5000 meters within 15 km of the Gulf of Alaska coast. The glaciers of this area are extensive and include large glaciers undergoing wastage (glacier retreat and thinning) and surges. The large glacier ice mass changes perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. We estimated surface displacements and stresses associated with ice mass fluctuations and tectonic loading by examining GPS geodetic observations and numerical model predictions. Although the glacial fluctuations perturb the tectonic stress field, especially at shallow depths, the largest contribution to ongoing crustal deformation is horizontal tectonic strain due to plate convergence. Tectonic forces are thus the primary force responsible for major earthquakes. However, for geodetic sites located < 10-20 km from major ice mass fluctuations, the changes of the solid Earth due to ice loading and unloading are an important aspect of interpreting geodetic results. The ice changes associated with Bering Glacier s most recent surge cycle are large enough to cause discernible surface displacements. Additionally, ice mass fluctuations associated with the surge cycle can modify the short-term seismicity rates in a local region. For the thrust faulting environment of the study region a large decrease in ice load may cause an increase in seismic rate in a region close to failure whereas ice loading may inhibit thrust faulting.

SauberRosenberg, Jeanne M.↗

Coulomb Stress Accumulation along the San Andreas Fault System

Stress accumulation rates along the primary segments of the San Andreas Fault system are computed using a three-dimensional (3-D) elastic half-space model with realistic fault geometry. The model is developed in the Fourier domain by solving for the response of an elastic half-space due to a point vector body force and analytically integrating the force from a locking depth to infinite depth. This approach is then applied to the San Andreas Fault system using published slip rates along 18 major fault strands of the fault zone. GPS-derived horizontal velocity measurements spanning the entire 1700 x 200 km region are then used to solve for apparent locking depth along each primary fault segment. This simple model fits remarkably well (2.43 mm/yr RMS misfit), although some discrepancies occur in the Eastern California Shear Zone. The model also predicts vertical uplift and subsidence rates that are in agreement with independent geologic and geodetic estimates. In addition, shear and normal stresses along the major fault strands are used to compute Coulomb stress accumulation rate. As a result, we find earthquake recurrence intervals along the San Andreas Fault system to be inversely proportional to Coulomb stress accumulation rate, in agreement with typical coseismic stress drops of 1 - 10 MPa. This 3-D deformation model can ultimately be extended to include both time-dependent forcing and viscoelastic response.

Smith, Bridget↗