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At least 91 records · Page 5

Multi-Scale Design And Advanced Manufacturing Of Seismic Metamaterials (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, METAseismic sought to investigate a multi-scale approach, both in terms of manufacturing and design, for seismic metamaterials with applications in the energy sector. Specifically, this project explored the feasibility of using nanofabrication to enable the incorporation of 3D nanostructured components into a mechanical metamaterial. These components were explored to increase the seismic resilience of our infrastructure to earthquakes, with the final aim of providing customized levels of protection for its components. This was envisioned as the base of a multi-scale design approach that consisted of using a multiplicity of metamaterial architectures ranging from the nano- to the meso-scale to address the stringent seismic design objectives of electric-power equipment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fracture Mechanics—Theory, Modeling and Applications

The field of fracture mechanics was developed during the throes of World War II, and since then, it has been a very active area of research. This is a very energetic and vibrant field because fracture processes are relevant for a vast range of engineering applications spanning different temporal and length scales. Depending on the application, material fracture and fragmentation may be either a desirable feature (for example, for the purpose of hydraulic fracturing operations), or something that is to be avoided at all costs (for example, in key components of mechanical systems). In some other instances, fractures are already present and must be accommodated through novel design (for example, in the case of earthquake ruptures occurring in the Earth’s crust). Because of this wide spectra of motivation, there is a continuous need for the fracture mechanics research community to gain more insight on how fractures are created, evolve, and interact with themselves and with material microstructures. In addition, there are still many remaining questions about how fracture propagation, growth, and interaction impact overall material behavior, and how to develop accurate models to predict this behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Distributed Acoustic Sensing as a Monitoring Tool at LANL [Slides]

DAS records a variety of signals, including (1) earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, (2) explosions (DAG, mining, etc.), (3) acoustic waves, (4) ocean (waves, whales), (5) vehicle, ship and pedestrian traffic, (6) glaciology and landslides, and (7) oil and gas. Main questions include: (1) what is the extent of the signal content? (2) how does DAS compare to traditional sensors? (3) how do interrogators, fiber types, and fiber depth burials impact measurements? (4) special applications offshore to overcome the lack of instrumentation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Learning earthquake ground motions via conditional generative modeling

Predicting high-fidelity ground motions for future earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure resilience. Conventional empirical simulations suffer from sparse sensor distribution and geographically localized earthquake locations, while physics-based methods are computationally intensive and require accurate representations of Earth structures and earthquake sources. We propose an artificial intelligence (AI) spectrogram generator, Conditional Generative Modeling for Ground Motion (CGM-GM). CGM-GM leverages earthquake magnitudes and geographic coordinates of earthquakes and sensors as inputs, when postprocessed with phase information, capturing spatially continuous Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) as well as properties such as P and S arrivals, and waveform durations, without explicit physics constraints. This is achieved through a probabilistic autoencoder that extracts latent distributions in the time-frequency domain and variational sequential models for prior and posterior distributions. We evaluate the performance of CGM-GM using small-magnitude earthquake records from the San Francisco Bay Area, a region with high seismic risks. Here, we report that CGM-GM demonstrates potential for complementing physics-based simulations and non-ergodic empirical ground motion models, as well as shows promise in seismology and beyond.

geophysics↗

Three-Dimensional Site Effects at Mortandad Canyon, NM: I. Validation against ambient noise recordings of topography effects

Observations from large earthquakes have shown that the presence of a strong topographic relief can significantly aggravate the catastrophic consequences of strong seismic motions. Structures on the tops of hills, ridges, and canyons, for example, have suffered systematically greater damage than similar structures at the hill bases or on level ground. Various earthquake recordings have confirmed the macroseismic observations, indicating systematic amplification of seismic motion over convex topographies, deamplification over concave topographic features, and complex amplification and deamplification patterns on hill slopes that result in significant differential motion. Despite the documented evidence of their role in elevating seismic risk, however, topography effects are not accounted for in the majority of seismic code provisions and microzonation studies, which are based instead on models of flat earth surface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Arctic Ocean Hydroacoustics

As the Arctic warms and loses its perennial ice cover, it is becoming more attractive for a variety of human uses. Hydroacoustic monitoring of this activity will grow in importance over the coming years and decades. Changes to the physical environment affect acoustic propagation and noise, with ramifications for our ability to detect and locate events and activities of interest. In this report, we use two long-term data sets from the Beaufort Sea, western Arctic Ocean, to determine how acoustic propagation conditions and seismic source detections are impacted by the changing environment: 1) oceanographic observations from ice-tethered profilers, and 2) passive acoustic recordings from a hydrophone. We find that changes to Beaufort Sea thermohaline stratification is stabilizing a subsurface duct, leading to more focused acoustic energy arrivals. Detections of catalogued submarine earthquakes show geographic differences in signal strength between seismic and acoustic waves. Signal strength increases with earthquake magnitude, but relationships to other source and path factors are less clear. Ambient noise also has clear seasonal patterns in the Arctic, with relatively low noise in the spring, higher noise near 1 Hz in summer, and higher noise near 10 Hz in winter. Climate change is expected to modify these seasonal noise patterns, impacting event detection. Future work will further investigate the mechanisms of ice effects on sound and couple acoustic modeling to an Earth System Model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

IC Project: w19_hossfault “Modelling of stick-slip behavior in sheared granular fault gouge & nonlinear elasticity behavior in cracked solid”

Low frequency earthquakes, non-volcanic tremor, and acoustic emissions are examples of weak seismic signals that may help detect major seismic events, i.e., earthquakes. In a laboratory setting, in which stick-slip events are simulated, acoustic emissions are detected far from the stick-slip events. In both, field and laboratory scale cases, the acoustic emission signals are sourced or detected in a volume remote from the volume that spawns the earthquake. Therefore, it is relevant to establish the causal relationship between signals detected on passive, remote monitors and the dynamics of the elastic structures that launch important seismic events. The work conducted under this IC allocation allowed us to utilize a numerical model that let us follow this causality, i.e., examine and connect the dynamics in a granular system (fault gouge), to signals detected on passive remote monitors. It was demonstrated that stress chains are key in the dynamics of granular systems and that their evolution is the source of the acoustic emission.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

THERMAL STRESS ANALYSIS OF A SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL CANISTER

The potential for chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC) in spent nuclear fuel dry storage canisters is a current topic of research by the US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program. One of the important prerequisites for CISCC is a tensile residual stress state. This study utilizes computational models to provide an initial analysis of thermal stresses in a generic spent nuclear fuel canister. A STAR-CCM+ thermal fluid model provides a temperature profile analysis of the canister based on four different ambient temperature conditions. An ANSYS APDL finite element model incorporates the temperature profiles to analyze the thermal stresses in the canister. The calculated thermal stress magnitudes are in the range of 10 MPa to 80 MPa, which could be significant for crack propagation through the canister wall. The maximum thermal stress is not a concern for the structural failure of the canister, but it is high enough that it is a significant contribution to the total stress state of the canister wall, which also includes residual stress from fabrication, internal pressure from helium cover gas, and potential transient mechanical loads, such as earthquakes. This paper describes the initial finite element thermal stress analysis that was completed in 2020, reports the initial findings, and identifies areas where model refinement is still needed to complete this work in the future.

Jensen, Ben J.↗

Finite Element Modeling of Spent Nuclear Fuel in Dry Storage under Seismic Excitation

Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is currently stored at independent spent fuel storage installations (ISFSIs) at nuclear power plant sites across the US. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is currently working to understand the response of SNF during a seismic event. This investigation is part of a long-term effort by DOE to quantify the external mechanical loads on SNF. The SFWST program has recently completed campaigns evaluating SNF behavior during normal conditions of transport and in 30 cm package drop scenarios; both campaigns included a combination of testing and modeling. Likewise, the investigation into seismic response of SNF will include full-size shake table tests of a vertical storage overpack containing instrumented surrogate fuel assemblies, as well as pre- and post-test finite element modeling. This work focuses on the development of finite element models simulating the planned test configuration. The seismic response is calculated at two scales: at the package level, and at the fuel level. The package level model evaluates the behavior of the storage overpack and its contents in response to the ground motions of a representative earthquake. The motion of the package is input to the fuel level model, which consists of a detailed finite element model of a 17x17 or 16x16 pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assembly or of a 10x10 boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel assembly. The stress and strain on individual components such as fuel rods and guide tubes are extracted from this model. This work details the SNF response to various input ground motions, considering representative earthquakes in the Central and Eastern US under various site conditions. Also discussed is the development of a “reduced scope” finite element model of the SNF, which consists of a single fuel rod while retaining the dynamic response of the entire fuel assembly. This reduced scope model addresses the significant computational expense of modeling the SNF under long-duration input ground motions and facilitates simulating additional parameter variations of the model beyond the as-tested configuration. The modeling results provide important insight that will help to inform future testing and modeling efforts by the SFWST program to close the knowledge gap related to external loads on SNF.

Kadooka, Kevin↗

Influence of Fault Architecture on Induced Earthquake Sequence Evolution Revealed by High-Resolution Focal Mechanism Solutions

The increasing seismicity and improved seismic observation network in recent years provide an opportunity to explore factors that influence the triggering processes, spatiotemporal evolution, and maximum magnitude of induced sequences. We map the fault architecture and stress state of four induced sequences in Oklahoma to determine their influence on the seismicity. We systematically relocate the earthquakes and compute hundreds of focal mechanisms of small to medium events (1.0 < M < 5.1) using various techniques, including machine learning, for the Guthrie, Woodward, Cushing, and Fairview sequences. The detailed fault geometry and spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity and stress states reveal different dominant driving forces for each sequence. In Cushing and Fairview (largest event ≥M5.0), the main fault structures are near-vertical narrow strike-slip faults, with most of the small earthquake fault planes optimally oriented. The two sequences exhibit discontinuous temporal migration but strong earthquake self-driven rupture growth. In Guthrie and Woodward (largest event <M5.0), the two sequences show more complex diffuse fault structures with varying dipping angles along depth. The inverted focal mechanisms show a mix of strike-slip faulting and normal faulting in both sequences, and the normal faulting events are less optimally oriented than strike-slip events. The two sequences are dominated by continuous diffusive migration in time driven by pore pressure propagation. The above results suggest that fault architecture and stress state influence sequence evolution, major driving forces, and possibly maximum magnitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multi-Event Explosive Seismic Source for the 2022 M w 6.3 Hunga Tonga Submarine Volcanic Eruption

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai submarine volcano on 15 January 2022 produced a variety of geophysical responses, including a significant seismic signal. We study the seismic source process of this event by inverting for moment tensors (MTs) using regional surface waves (Rayleigh, Love). By comparing inversion results for the eruption with eight nearby earthquakes, we show that it is possible to discriminate MT source types. Our inversion yields a shallow explosive source for the eruption and reveals the importance of trade-offs among depth, magnitude, and source type. We illustrate these trade-offs by representing the misfit variations over the eigenvalue lune. Finally, we invert for the source-time function of the sequence of explosions that occurred in the first minutes of the eruption. The multi-event source-time function comprises four subevents spanning ~270 s, with a total magnitude estimate of M w 6.34 ± 0.10.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Probing Slow Earthquakes With Deep Learning

Abstract Slow earthquakes may trigger failure on neighboring locked faults that are stressed sufficiently to break, and slow slip patterns may evolve before a nearby great earthquake. However, even in the clearest cases such as Cascadia, slow earthquakes and associated tremor have only been observed in intermittent and discrete bursts. By training a convolutional neural network to detect known tremor on a single seismic station in Cascadia, we isolate and identify tremor and slip preceding and following known larger slow events. The deep neural network can be used for the detection of quasi‐continuous tremor, providing a proxy that quantifies the slow slip rate. Furthermore, the model trained in Cascadia recognizes tremor in other subduction zones and also along the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, suggesting a universality of waveform characteristics and source processes, as posited from experiments and theory.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An exponential build-up in seismic energy suggests a months-long nucleation of slow slip in Cascadia

Slow slip events result from the spontaneous weakening of the subduction megathrust and bear strong resemblance to earthquakes, only slower. This resemblance allows us to study fundamental aspects of nucleation that remain elusive for classic, fast earthquakes. We rely on machine learning algorithms to infer slow slip timing from statistics of seismic waveforms. We find that patterns in seismic power follow the 14-month slow slip cycle in Cascadia, arguing in favor of the predictability of slow slip rupture. Here, we show that seismic power exponentially increases as the slowly slipping portion of the subduction zone approaches failure, a behavior that shares a striking similarity with the increase in acoustic power observed prior to laboratory slow slip events. Our results suggest that the nucleation phase of Cascadia slow slip events may last from several weeks up to several months.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of geophysical and anthropogenic sources of hydroacoustic noise in the Alaskan arctic

Quantifying the ocean soundscape is crucial for ocean-based seismoacoustic monitoring; it sets a baseline for the kinds and sizes of signals that can be detected above the background noise. As sea ice recedes, human activity in and around the Arctic Ocean is increasing, elevating sound levels and heightening the urgency of monitoring. Here, seven years of passive acoustic recordings from a National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration hydrophone in the Beaufort Sea are analyzed, focusing on frequencies between 1 and 125 Hz, a band of interest for detecting regional earthquakes and similar events. Sound is related to geophysical and anthropogenic sources, and seasonal and intraseasonal variations in the soundscape are examined. Sea ice emerges as a keystone feature of the Arctic Ocean acoustic environment, controlling or contributing to ambient sound levels at all frequencies studied. During low-ice months, sound levels are dominated by wind and sea surface waves, and in ice-covered months, wind-driven ice noise dominates. Seismic air gun surveys are prominent during low-ice periods, with sound levels decreasing with increasing distance and bathymetric complexity along the propagation path. The implications of this baseline soundscape for event detection in the Alaskan Arctic are discussed.

Niklasson, Siobhan [Los Alamos National Laboratory↗

The Intraplate Stress Field of West Africa

West Africa continues to host a growing number of low and intermediate-magnitude earthquakes (M2-5) along its passive margins, and its continental interior. Earthquake activity in these regions raises the need to comprehend the causes and the tectonic controls of the seismicity. Unfortunately, such studies are rare. Here, we apply single-station inversion techniques to constrain fourteen focal mechanisms, computed after compiling a set of high-quality waveforms. We describe the connection between seismicity, the contemporary stress field, anthropogenic activity and Holocene fault scarps in the region. Our results indicate transpressive stresses acting on the inherited brittle structures in the passive margins. We also observe a compressive regime in the intracontinental failed rifts. We attribute the seismicity to the reactivation of “weak” faults in the Neoproterozoic and Mesozoic failed rifts, the passive transform structures, and the intracratonic Precambrian brittle shear zones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seasonal modulation of crustal seismicity in northeastern Japan driven by snow load

Numerous studies have reported that surface hydrological loading can seasonally modulate seismicity rates at crustal depths. For example, substantial winter snow accumulation occurs across the Japanese Islands, and these snowy regions appear to have seasonally modulated the occurrence of previous large inland earthquakes. Therefore, it is important to investigate the impact of seasonal stress changes on crustal seismicity to deepen our understanding of earthquake generation. Here we constrain seasonal changes in the surface load across northeastern Japan using Global Navigation Satellite System surface displacements and evaluate the potential relationship between temporal trends in inland seismicity and estimated seasonal stress changes. The spatial distribution of the seasonal surface load is consistent with snow depth along the Sea of Japan. The inland seismicity beneath northeastern Japan is modestly modulated by the seasonal stress changes that are induced by the annual snow load. However, this seasonal response is weaker than that in other regions. This weak modulation may be due to the small surface-load-induced stress perturbation relative to the long-term-averaged stressing rate and/or the limited presence of crustal fluids to trigger seismicity in Japan.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Differential Seismic Phase Detection Probability as a Potential Discriminant of Explosions and Earthquakes

Deep learning models trained to estimate the probability of seismic P and S phases are rapidly expanding the scale of local event detections. Here, we evaluate the potential for deep learning model output phase detection probabilities to contribute to event‐type classification, particularly discrimination of single‐fired borehole explosions and earthquakes at local distances (<300 km). Motivated by the empirical success of P/S amplitude ratios, we consider the difference between P and S pick probability output from previously developed phase detection models, P prob −S prob ⁠, as a discriminant. Test data include M L ∼1–4 earthquakes and explosions observed by common seismographs in ten geologically diverse localities. Depending on the picking model and training data, binary classification using P prob −S prob with at least three stations can achieve approximately equivalent classification accuracy as P/S amplitude ratios without requiring any customization. Joint classification with P/S and P prob −S prob improves accuracy for most quality control scenarios. Pick probabilities are an efficient attribute to consider in explosion discrimination because they can be automated byproducts of event detection. They avoid the binary choice of picking or not picking weakly visible S waves common to explosions.

Duan, Chenglong [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United S↗